Joe Rogan: I Have A Lot Of Hope For Bitcoin

Joe Rogan: I Have A Lot Of Hope For Bitcoin

Submitted by Bitcoin Magazine

Joe Rogan has “a lot of hope” for cryptocurrencies, but mostly Bitcoin, though he said he doesn’t understand it very well.

The podcaster interviewed internet entrepreneur and podcast pioneer Adam Curry on the 1760th episode of The Joe Rogan Experience show on January 8, talking about Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, the metaverse, and beyond.

“What we’re seeing right now is, it’s either going to fall apart completely or we’re going to use this as an opportunity to right the ship and come up with a better way to live our lives,” Rogan said after mentioning that he sees Bitcoin and Ethereum as the two main projects.

Curry highlighted how he is a sole believer in Bitcoin and dismisses most of the other cryptocurrencies, because BTC is the only project with an actual limited and unchangeable supply, which according to him is a central and dividing aspect in his assessment of cryptocurrencies.

“The difference between Bitcoin and Ethereum is that in Bitcoin there will only be 21 million, it cannot be changed,” Curry explained.

“It cannot be inflated, and you cannot say the same for Ethereum.”

“I’m just on the Bitcoin train because I believe my money is safer there,” Curry said.

“The money system is broken, it causes inflation, misery, it causes wars because it’s linked to oil, so we have to protect all that.”

The internet entrepreneur added that “there’s no CEO of Bitcoin,” which prompted Rogan to ask whether Ethereum had one.

“If you look at the history of [Ethereum], changes can be made,” Curry responded.

After that, Bitcoinist reports that Joe Rogan considers a future with big companies each creating their own private coins that act as stock of sorts. Curry stops him and tells him Facebook tried that and the governments wouldn’t allow it.

“That’s not the plan. The plan is the Central Bank Digital Currency. You will have crypto. You will have a digital wallet. It will be directly from the Federal Reserve to you,” Adam Curry says.

Then, they’ll have total control. However, Bitcoin fixes this.

Watch the full crypto discussion below:

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/11/2022 – 08:59

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‘Urgent Reset Needed’: Democratic Insiders Come Forward To Admit Biden Admin Has ‘Gone Backwards’ On COVID Policy

‘Urgent Reset Needed’: Democratic Insiders Come Forward To Admit Biden Admin Has ‘Gone Backwards’ On COVID Policy

Approximately half a dozen former health policymakers – including members of Biden’s transition team – have come forward to declare that the Biden administration’s Covid-19 policy has gone off the rails and needs an ‘urgent strategy reset.’

President Joe Biden is urging schools to stay open, but there’s a widespread Covid testing shortage.

He calls it the “pandemic of the unvaccinated,” but that’s only confused boosted Americans home sick with the omicron variant.

And the administration hasn’t changed its guidance to urge high-filtration masks despite calls from the medical community, while recent isolation guidance has only added to the uncertainty. –NBC News

Indeed, current policy now seems to be a shoot-from-the-hip combination of bad kneejerk policy based on early pandemic response and deadlier strains (primarily affecting the elderly and those with multiple comorbidities, as CDC Director Rochelle Walensky recently admitted) – and new policy which doubles down on vaccination against a new strain despite its far more mild presentation and vaccine evasion.

Meanwhile, the administration’s last desperate argument for getting vaccinated ‘to avoid serious illness or death’ has been very clearly rendered moot by Omicron.

And now this:

According to the former health policymakers, the Biden administration could ‘rapidly lose credibility with the public.’

Biden was elected president, in large part, based on a message of ‘I’m competent, I’m capable, I will tell you the truth and I will get a handle on Covid in a way my predecessor could not and refused to do,” according to former Obama Health and Human Services secretary, Kathleen Sebelius.

“I do think it’s about competence and capability and telling the truth and using all of the tools that are at the president’s disposal,” she added.

You know it’s bad when this lady turns on Biden…

She told NBC News: “In terms of the communication and the trust in the CDC, it feels like we have gone backwards.

Omicron fumble

Two years of conditioning people to avoid Covid like the plague has now resulted in mass disruptions throughout the entire global economy. So when the hyper-virulent Omicron strain seemingly appeared out of nowhere (*cough*) at just the right moment to beat back Delta, the response has been to hunker for dear life despite the Omicron experience being akin to a moderately bad cold for most people (and for others, they don’t even know they’ve had it).

the rapid spread of the variant has created a level of disruption in many Americans’ lives not seen since the early days of the pandemic. Staffing shortages have forced schools and businesses to close and have led to absences in police and fire departments with large numbers of sick first-responders. Airlines have canceled thousands of flights because of staffing shortages, transit systems have shut down bus and subway routes, and the surge in cases has once again crippled the cruise industry.

The demand for testing has overwhelmed the country’s capacity in places that are hardest hit, creating long lines and delaying results for days.

At-home tests are still in short supply, and the administration was widely criticized last month for what appeared to be confusing recommendations for those infected as cases soared. –NBC News

According to the health experts, the Biden admin recommends preparing Americans to simply accept Covid as part of life, while trying to keep people out of the hospital by promoting vaccinations (heaven forbid they tell people to lose weight and eat healthy).

“There’s agreement that the messaging has to be better and that it would be important to be simpler for people and more targeted towards what people need and action guided,” said Ezekiel Emanuel, a key member of Biden’s transition team and a former health policy adviser to the Obama administration (and the brother of Rahm Emanuel and the real life “Ari” from Entourage).

“I think we just need a clear message so people know what the ‘to do’ is.”

Incompetence

In yet another example of empty promises, Biden committed to sending 500 million free at-home Covid tests to Americans (and now he’s making insurance companies pay for it) – yet it will take months for them to be able to procure and distribute that many tests. On Monday, the administration announced that insurance companies and group health plans would be responsible for the cost beginning Jan. 15.

“There has to be an admission at the federal level [about] what is not going well now and frankly, we have a testing mess,” said Sebelius. “While I think the president stepped up in the beginning to purchase the test kits and get them to people, even mail them to people, we’re late to this game for a whole variety of reasons. The United States has not done well on testing since March of 2020. That’s a problem and I think it needs to be said out loud that it’s a problem because that’s what a lot of people are experiencing every day.”

On the political front, Biden could be better off acknowledging the virus is here to stay, despite his repeated promises as a candidate that he would “shut down the virus,” said Paul Maslin, a Democratic pollster. -NBC News

“Is Covid ever going to be the great success Biden or his people or any Democrats had hoped it would be? The answer’s no,” said Maslin. “He’s lost the opportunity of making it a great success.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/11/2022 – 08:39

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Peter Schiff: The Fed Can’t Do What It’s Saying It Will Do

Peter Schiff: The Fed Can’t Do What It’s Saying It Will Do

Via SchiffGold.com,

The Fed FOMC minutes came out last week, signaling tighter monetary policy. Peter Schiff talked about the minutes in his podcast, arguing that the Fed can’t do what it says it’s going to do. If it does, it will crash the markets and the economy. And it won’t lower inflation.

The Fed minutes were widely viewed as even more hawkish than the messaging coming out of the December meeting. Peter said the minutes even surprised him a bit. But he reminded us that when he’s talking about a “hawkish” Fed, he’s not really talking about hawks.

They’re extinct. They may as well be the dodo bird at the Federal Reserve. Everybody is a dove. We’re just talking about degrees of dovishness. And so, the Fed was less dovish than the markets had expected.”

The minutes indicated we could now see four interest rate hikes this year. Three hikes were widely anticipated after the meeting. That would push rates up to about 1% by the end of the year. In the big scheme of things, and against the backdrop of the current economic data, that’s not a lot.

You cannot describe those itsy-bitsy moves in any way ‘hawkish.’”

But comments regarding quantitative tightening – shrinking the balance sheet – really roiled the markets.

In other words, they’re going to go from being a massive buyer in US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to a seller of those securities. And that’s what really spooked the markets. Because that sent the bond markets tanking.”

Yields on the 10-year Treasury hit a 52-week high and briefly pushed above 1.8%.

If the Fed is going to shift from buying bonds to selling, clearly, that will put heavy pressure on the bond market. But Peter said there is one thing that the markets don’t seem to comprehend.

If the Fed actually follows through with this plan, if they actually start to shrink their balance sheet, bonds aren’t going to just fall. They’re going to crash. They have a long way to decline.”

Peter said that’s why he doesn’t think the Fed will actually follow through with its tightening plan.

I mean, sure, they can talk about it. But doing it is a whole different thing. But the markets still don’t understand how bad it would be.

The only reason interest rates have dropped as low as they are is because the Fed has been massively intervening in the bond market and because a lot of people were under the impression there was no inflation. If we have 6.8% inflation, and the Fed is selling bonds, why would you expect yields on the 10-year to stay at 1.8%?

If the Federal Reserve is no longer buying any Treasuries, and in fact, again, selling Treasuries, and the US government is selling Treasuries, and the various trust funds, like the Social Security Trust Fund, are also selling Treasuries, everybody is trying to unload low-yielding Treasuries. What private buyers are going to buy them? Nobody is going to buy a 10-year Treasury yielding 1.8% when there’s a 7% inflation rate.”

Even if inflation comes down to 3 or 4%, why would you want to loan money at 1.8%?

You wouldn’t.

So, the reality is if the Fed actually does what it says it’s going to do, the bond market would crash. Which, again, is why it’s not going to do it. The same thing with all of these rate hikes. If the Fed continues to raise rates, not just in 2022, but in 2023, the way they’re indicating, the economy is going to move into a recession. The stock market is going to move into a bear market. Something is going to happen that is going to cause the Fed to do an about-face.”

Peter said it’s just amazing to him that people can actually call the proposed Fed policy of gradual rate hikes as being hawkish or that it is in any way a tight monetary policy designed to fight inflation.

In 2002, the economy went into a recession that coincided with the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 9/11 attacks. What did the Fed do in 2002 in order to “stimulate” the economy? It slashed interest rates — to 1%.

At that time, unemployment was 5.4%. The CPI was 1.58%. And GDP grew by 1.7% in 2002. Against that backdrop, the Fed was stimulating.

Today, the unemployment rate is 3.9%. GDP growth is projected to be 5.6% for 2021. And the CPI is at 6.8%.

So, with these economic numbers, the Federal Reserve is proposing that it gradually raise interest rates so that by the end of the year they may be all the way back up to — 1%. The same rate of interest that was considered highly stimulative in 2002. Now, it’s considered tight money?”

When are people going to figure out that even if the Fed does what it claims it’s going to do, it will do nothing to cool inflation?

Inflation is going to keep getting worse even if the Fed follows through with the rate hikes that it is projecting. And it may not even do that based on the weakness in the markets and the economy that will result.”

In this podcast, Peter also talked about the market reaction to the Fed minutes, inflation pressure continuing to build on producers and consumers, the impact of inflation on workers as prices rise faster than wages, Bitcoin, Micheal Saylor talking out of both sides of his mouth about the dollar and NASA agreeing that gold has intrinsic value.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/11/2022 – 08:23

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No HIPAA for Hippos (or, Seals and Animal Welfare)

From Animal Legal Defense Fund v. Olympic Game Farm, Inc., decided Friday by Judge Robert Lasnik (W.D. Wash.), and dealing with when documents can be sealed from public access:

“There is a strong presumption of public access to the court’s files. A party’s unilateral designation of a document as confidential under a protective order does not, in and of itself, justify a seal ….. Where a document has been offered in support of or opposition to a dispositive motion, the party requesting that the record be sealed must articulate compelling reasons supported by specific factual findings that outweigh the general history of access and the public policies favoring disclosure, such as the public interest in understanding the judicial process….”

OGF has not satisfied its burden, having failed to provide the Court with anything other than its fear that production of the deposition transcript, veterinary records, or photographs will embarrass them or benefit plaintiff in its pursuit of this litigation. The actual conditions at OGF are the critical issue in this lawsuit, and the public’s understanding of the Court’s dispositive rulings will turn on their awareness of those conditions.

The Court is not bound by a non-disclosure agreement signed decades ago …. With regards to the veterinary records, the fact that veterinarians treat their records as confidential does not shield them from discovery or public disclosure.

There is no veterinarian privilege, no animal equivalent of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, and no case law suggesting that humans and animals are entitled to the same level of privacy. Defendants’ objection to the public disclosure of photographs taken by plaintiff during a site visit are, for the most part, too vague and speculative to justify the public’s exclusion. In fact, OGF asserts that it “is not concerned that the public will see the images….” Instead, OGF suggests that unidentified third parties who are somehow affiliated with plaintiff will use the photos for commercial purposes, namely to solicit funds with which to pursue this litigation. OGF does not, however, explain how such a use would be improper.

Plaintiff, seemingly in good faith, believes that OGF is harming the endangered species in its care. If the photographs support that narrative and are not used “to gratify private spite, promote public scandal, circulate libelous statements, or release trade secrets,” the balance of interests favors public access.

Finally, OGF relies heavily on the Honorable Ronald B. Leighton’s July 31, 2020, order denying plaintiff’s motion to lift the confidentiality designation on the veterinary records and the photographs. At the time, there were no dispositive motions pending: in fact, there were no motions pending at all. Judge Leighton’s order was therefore based on a different analysis and did not set forth compelling reasons or the factual basis for its ruling as is required here.

The court ordered the unsealing of all the relevant documents except “OGF’s profit and loss statements.”

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Will Bitcoin Be Done In By Terrible Zoning Laws?


reason-bitcoinmine2

Since late 2020, a steady hum has been emanating from 15 large metal containers sitting next to an electricity substation in the small community of Limestone in rural Washington County, Tennessee.

Those boxes make up a bitcoin “mine.” Inside each one, a network of linked computers works to solve equations that keep bitcoin’s decentralized network up and running. In exchange for solving these equations—for performing the work of keeping the bitcoin network alive—the mining computers are rewarded with bitcoins. This process is how bitcoins and many other forms of cryptocurrency are brought into the world; it’s complex and computationally intensive, a little like running a video game with cutting-edge graphics.

As anyone who has ever found himself feeling a burst of metallic warmth after pushing his laptop to its limits knows, that constant computational intensity means those boxes are hot—hence the hum, which is produced by all the fans needed to keep this bitcoin “mining” machinery from overheating.

The Limestone bitcoin mine is a mutually profitable enterprise for both BrightRidge, the utility company that owns the substation, and the mine’s operator, crypto company Red Dog Technologies.

BrightRidge, which also owns the land on which the bitcoin mine is located, brings in revenue by selling excess power to Red Dog’s power-hungry mine, which also happens to be its largest customer. Red Dog, meanwhile, says it expects to make a net operating profit of $36 million on its Limestone bitcoin mine over the next 18 months.

Indeed, the mine seemed uncontroversial enough that the Washington County Commission unanimously voted to approve a rezoning of the BrightRidge property to allow for the construction of a “block chain data center” in February 2020 with no debate or discussion.

Soon enough, however, the county began to change course.

In May 2021, the neighbors started complaining that the incessant vibrating noise coming from the mine’s containers of computer equipment was eliminating their ability to peaceably enjoy their own property. Red Dog responded by installing sound barriers, consisting of wood and sound-absorbent padding, while promising to do more to get the noise issue under control.

The county wasn’t mollified. Commissioners complained at public meetings that BrightRidge had misled them about the precise nature of this new data center, downplayed the noise it would make, and hid the fact that it wouldn’t be operated by the utility company directly.

Some of these accusations are more on point than others.

BrightRidge, per a county planning staff report, had promised that noise from its facility would be “small and will not impact or be heard from adjoining properties.”

Neighbors’ complaints show that BrightRidge was, charitably, underestimating the noise impacts of the mine.

On the other hand, court filings show that county staff were having meetings with employees from Griid (Red Dog’s predecessor company) nearly a year before the county claims it first learned about the company and the real nature of its operation.

In November, the county sued BrightRidge. The county’s lawsuit argues that the rezoning of the property to an A-3 business agricultural district might have allowed a blockchain data center, but it didn’t allow a “Bitcoin blockchain verification facility,” otherwise known as a bitcoin mine, and certainly not one operated by an undisclosed third party. (The zoning code itself is silent on what difference, if any, there is between a blockchain data center and a bitcoin mine, and therefore why one would be allowed but not another.)

In short, Red Dog’s bitcoin-mining computers were having code problems—but with zoning rather than ones and zeroes.

For close to a century now, the ever-more-elaborate zoning codes of America’s cities, towns, and rural counties have been frustrating the plans of individual entrepreneurs and whole industries to try out new ideas and practices on their own properties.

Cryptocurrency is no exception. The computerized mines that create and sustain these digital monies and the blockchain networks they’re built on have raised the ire of private citizens and planning commissions alike. The former primarily object, sometimes reasonably, to the noise and vibrations emanating from the mines that open up next to their quiet rural properties. Planners and politicians, however, have taken some of those more reasonable complaints and used them as excuses to attack the mines for their power consumption, and the perceived damage they do to locally set goals of fighting climate change.

As cryptocurrency continues to rise in value, and some foreign countries put pressure on mining, these conflicts are likely to grow more numerous and less amicable. So even when officials are responding to real externalities, the rush to regulate could end up handicapping this new industry and even make some of the problems they seek to combat worse. Bitcoin and its attendant technologies will inevitably face many political and legal challenges in the coming years, but its first big regulatory fight won’t be in Congress. Instead, it will be over a mesh of poorly designed local zoning laws.

Heigh-Ho, High Hums 

The bitcoin network is built on a decentralized ledger known as a blockchain. That ledger is a public record of bitcoin transactions that allows everyone involved to know which anonymized bitcoin wallet owns which individual bitcoin, and prevents someone from making fraudulent digital bitcoin copies.

Keeping the blockchain current and accurate requires lots and lots of computers called application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) plugging away at solving mathematical equations and earning new bitcoins for their efforts. The computations needed to keep the blockchain up to speed are complex. The bitcoins generated from mining go to the machines that solve them first. Those two facts mean you need a lot of ASIC machines burning through a lot of electricity to have a profitable mine.

“These ASICs are not energy efficient. They consume a lot of power,” says Artem Bespaloff, CEO of Asic Jungle, which sells the machines to bitcoin-mining operations. He says your average ASIC consuming between 1,400 and 3,500 watts of power is enough to heat up a 900 square foot room in about 10 minutes.

The power consumption needs of bitcoin mining have a major influence on where these bitcoin mines—the largest of which have tens of thousands of ASIC machines—set up shop, Bespaloff tells Reason.

Popular destinations for bitcoin mining in the United States include Texas, where natural gas is plentiful and energy regulation is not, and Montana with its cool climate and cheap, available hydroelectric power.

Indeed, bitcoin mining is so energy-intensive that many utility companies are actually trying to court these businesses. In some cases, they have offered incentives to set up shop near their power plants and substations in the hopes of getting a reliable customer to soak up spare power.

In Limestone, BrightRidge offered $100,000 and discounted power to the company that would become Red Dog to build its bitcoin mine, according to reporting from WJHL reporter Jeff Keeling.

The same power consumption features of bitcoin mining that determine where they end up also create externalities that can irritate neighbors.

The heat generated by banks of ASICs requires fans to keep everything cool. Those can produce a tremendous amount of noise as they spin, particularly at the scale at which bitcoin mines now operate.

Traditional zoning regulations usually try to account for noise externalities by relegating heavy industry to specific areas of the city and setting decibel limits for those operations. That sometimes isn’t enough to wholly account for the particular, and often constant, sound emanating from some bitcoin mines.

The chief building inspector in Plattsburgh, New York—which has become something of a hub for bitcoin mining—told The Wall Street Journal that the problem isn’t so much the volume of bitcoin mines, which is what decibels measure, but the irritating high-frequency pitch that they can produce.

Other people who spoke to the Journal described the sounds of bitcoin mines as akin to the whine of a jet engine, a dental drill, or thousands of hair dryers blowing all at once.

The vibrations can also apparently produce an unpleasant physical sensation. “It’s more than a noise. It’s a vibration that you can feel across your whole body,” said one resident who owns a farm near Red Dog’s Limestone bitcoin mine to WJHL.

Even when these mines sit in industrial areas, and often inside older industrial facilities, they still provoke complaints given that the fans hum at a consistent volume for hours at a time, unlike the more sporadic noises produced by industrial machines of old.

In response to complaints from neighbors, some mine owners in the U.S. have switched to water-cooling methods, which produce less noise, or installed lighter fans that give off less sound. Some have also installed sound barriers and berths on the property—basically sound-absorbing walls that surround the mines themselves and which suck in some of the noise they give off.

In many cases, the noise can be addressed through individual negotiation with mining companies. But it can still prove to be a burden on neighbors—what economists call a  “negative externality,” or a cost born by someone who didn’t choose to participate in a project, and isn’t a party to any potential benefits. And these sorts of externalities can be difficult to resolve through private mechanisms.

Yet regulatory responses often have serious problems of their own. Cities have adopted bitcoin mining–inspired noise rules that are both heavy-handed and ineffectual. Plattsburgh, for instance, imposed an 18-month moratorium on the establishment or expansion of bitcoin-mining operations in 2018, which obviously attracted the ire of local miners and made starting or expanding bitcoin businesses impossible. And by grandfathering in existing operations, that moratorium obviously didn’t address the immediate concerns of neighbors.

Then there’s Washington County, which launched a lawsuit against BrightRidge that was initially sparked by noise complaints. Yet one of the issues raised by the county against the company is that its approved site plan didn’t include the noise barriers the county had later urged it to install. The county’s complaint was that the noise was too loud and BrightRidge should do something about it—and also that the noise mitigation measures hadn’t been approved.

And noise complaints have served as catalysts for local governments to take a tougher approach to regulating all aspects of bitcoin mining. That was certainly the case with the nation’s first true cryptocurrency zoning ordinance.

The Bark Is Worse Than the Bit 

Missoula County, Montana’s first bitcoin mine began life as a project that was warmly welcomed by government officials. In April 2017, the company Project Spokane set up its data center in an old timber mill in the small town of Bonner. In June, the mine was blessed by then-Gov. Steve Bullock with a $416,000 grant from the state’s Big Sky Economic Development Trust Fund.

Soon enough, however, the whir of fans coming from the Project Spokane site—which would later be taken over by the company HyberBlock—began attracting complaints from neighbors.

“Even some of the long-time [spoken interview? if so, “longtime”] residents that clearly remembered the noise from the lumber mill when it was operational at that site said this is very different,” says Diana Maneta, the sustainability program manager for Missoula County’s Community and Planning Services Department.

While the lumber mill was loud, the noise it produced would come and go. Maneta says people described the consistent hum from the bitcoin mine as more like “a jet engine that never lands.”

Prior to the noise complaints, the Project Spokane facility, and indeed the entire cryptocurrency industry, wasn’t on the county government’s radar. But as those complaints surfaced, Maneta says county staff were directed by the county commission to “learn a little more about this industry and whether it might have other local impacts that we should be aware of.”

That piqued the county’s interest about Project Spokane’s electricity use.

Bitcoin mining’s energy intensiveness has made it a target for both environmentalists and already crypto-skeptical politicians who are eager to find any flaw in the decentralized digital currency.

“It’s terrible for the environment,” claimed Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.), who is fond of saying that the average bitcoin transaction uses more electricity than the average U.S. household uses in a month—a misleading statement since there’s no direct link between the number of bitcoin transactions and the amount of energy that’s needed to sustain the blockchain. Other critics point out that bitcoin uses as much energy as countries like Argentina or the Netherlands, without noting that industries like cement and paper production use even more.

Those concerns were nevertheless enough to push Missoula County—which estimated that the Project Spokane/HyberBlock mine was using about a third as much energy as all households in the county—into action.

Beginning with a temporary zoning ordinance in 2019, which was then made into a permanent ordinance in February 2021, the county imposed a number of new restrictions on cryptocurrency mines. That included requirements that they locate in industrial areas and go through the process of getting special conditional use permits—which comes with additional noise restrictions.

The most significant requirement of the zoning ordinance, however, was its green energy regulations. From now on, any cryptocurrency mining operation setting up shop in Missoula [Missoula? Or Missoula County?] would have to purchase or produce enough renewable energy necessary to offset 100 percent of a mine’s energy use.

Without this requirement, Maneta says the county would be at risk of not achieving its set climate goals of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

It’s also a significant entry tax to cryptocurrency mining operations that might want to set up in the county. One of the draws of Montana is the fact that there’s already so much plentiful cheap energy in existence. That advantage is negated when new mines have to either build out or purchase potentially more expensive renewable energy to cover all their consumption.

It’s also a requirement that doesn’t apply to any other industry. A developer could build a new suburban subdivision or another sawmill without having to do anything to offset its power consumption.

Project Spokane’s successor, HyperBlock, which was grandfathered into the new regulations, ended up ceasing operations in May 2020. Later that year, it settled a lawsuit with the local energy provider, Energy Keepers, which claimed that it owed $3 million in overdue power bills.

Maneta says that some cryptocurrency miners have inquired about setting up in Missoula County since the new ordinance has passed, but none have done so yet. Perhaps they’ve learned all they needed to know.

Go East, Young Man  

Bitcoin miners might be having a tough time in Bonner, Montana, and Limestone, Tennessee. Those in China are having a much worse experience.

Beginning in June 2021, the Chinese government ordered five state-run banks to cut off all cryptocurrency transactions. That was followed in September by the Chinese central bank’s total ban on cryptocurrency transactions.

This has been hugely disruptive for bitcoin. Prior to the ban, as much as 80 percent of new cryptocurrency was being minted by Chinese mining operations, according to Nikkei Asia. The industry is now fleeing the country, with North America being the primary destination.

“These miners that have become quite well to do have the means now to transfer their hardware overseas,” says Max Song, a partner at Hong Kong–based investment firm Pacific Century Group. “So we see now a huge concentration of the world mining in North America, specifically in Canada and the United States.”

With more mining operations establishing themselves in the U.S., local conflicts about noise and energy consumption are only going to grow more frequent. That presents a challenge for local governments and the industry itself.

The noise produced by bitcoin mining can be a serious nuisance. It’s reasonable that neighbors would want those noise impacts mitigated, and there’s a role for local governments to play in making that happen.

Too often, however, governments’ response to the racket—as the cases of Washington County and Plattsburgh show—has been to use heavy-handed rules to shut down the cryptocurrency industry rather than pursue peaceful coexistence.

Worse still, legitimate concerns about noise externalities can morph into a wholesale effort to regulate other aspects of the bitcoin-mining industry—including its energy use.

Those regulations, as the example of Missoula County shows, can be a huge effective entry tax on bitcoin mining. That’s economically costly, and potentially environmentally counterproductive.

Mines that would have once set up in the county to take advantage of its abundant (carbon-free) hydroelectric power could instead go to other areas of the state or country where dirtier coal-fired power is king.

Elsewhere, companies are installing mines at oil and gas wells where they use spare fuel—that would otherwise be “flared” or burned off into the atmosphere—to power their operations. Those mines are thus reducing carbon emissions. Under Missoula’s regulations, they’d still be required to build out more renewable power anyway.

Bitcoin, and cryptocurrency generally, is a new industry that’s hard for most people to understand and even harder for politicians to control. The result is a drive to quash or regulate it at all levels of government. As more and more cryptocurrency mines are set up in the U.S., it looks like the real threat to the industry isn’t the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, but rather the local county planning commission.

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No HIPAA for Hippos (or, Seals and Animal Welfare)

From Animal Legal Defense Fund v. Olympic Game Farm, Inc., decided Friday by Judge Robert Lasnik (W.D. Wash.), and dealing with when documents can be sealed from public access:

“There is a strong presumption of public access to the court’s files. A party’s unilateral designation of a document as confidential under a protective order does not, in and of itself, justify a seal ….. Where a document has been offered in support of or opposition to a dispositive motion, the party requesting that the record be sealed must articulate compelling reasons supported by specific factual findings that outweigh the general history of access and the public policies favoring disclosure, such as the public interest in understanding the judicial process….”

OGF has not satisfied its burden, having failed to provide the Court with anything other than its fear that production of the deposition transcript, veterinary records, or photographs will embarrass them or benefit plaintiff in its pursuit of this litigation. The actual conditions at OGF are the critical issue in this lawsuit, and the public’s understanding of the Court’s dispositive rulings will turn on their awareness of those conditions.

The Court is not bound by a non-disclosure agreement signed decades ago …. With regards to the veterinary records, the fact that veterinarians treat their records as confidential does not shield them from discovery or public disclosure.

There is no veterinarian privilege, no animal equivalent of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, and no case law suggesting that humans and animals are entitled to the same level of privacy. Defendants’ objection to the public disclosure of photographs taken by plaintiff during a site visit are, for the most part, too vague and speculative to justify the public’s exclusion. In fact, OGF asserts that it “is not concerned that the public will see the images….” Instead, OGF suggests that unidentified third parties who are somehow affiliated with plaintiff will use the photos for commercial purposes, namely to solicit funds with which to pursue this litigation. OGF does not, however, explain how such a use would be improper.

Plaintiff, seemingly in good faith, believes that OGF is harming the endangered species in its care. If the photographs support that narrative and are not used “to gratify private spite, promote public scandal, circulate libelous statements, or release trade secrets,” the balance of interests favors public access.

Finally, OGF relies heavily on the Honorable Ronald B. Leighton’s July 31, 2020, order denying plaintiff’s motion to lift the confidentiality designation on the veterinary records and the photographs. At the time, there were no dispositive motions pending: in fact, there were no motions pending at all. Judge Leighton’s order was therefore based on a different analysis and did not set forth compelling reasons or the factual basis for its ruling as is required here.

The court ordered the unsealing of all the relevant documents except “OGF’s profit and loss statements.”

The post No HIPAA for Hippos (or, Seals and Animal Welfare) appeared first on Reason.com.

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Futures Rebound As Fed-Induced Rout Finally Eases

Futures Rebound As Fed-Induced Rout Finally Eases

After yesterday’s miraculous tech recovery which saw gigacaps drop as much as 4% before recovering all losses and closing green, Nasdaq futures led gains among U.S. stock-index futures, hinting at further relief for technology stocks as Treasury yields retreated in early trading but have since steadied around 1.75%, unchanged from Monday. Nasdaq futures rose as much as 0.7%, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones contracts were also higher by about 0.4% ahead of Powell’s Senate confirmation hearing for second term as Fed chair which begins at 10am and where the Fed chair is expected to put on a dovish mask and walk back some of the recent hawkish commentary.

Dip-buyers rescued the Nasdaq from a fifth session of declines on Monday after Marko Kolanovic urged JPM clients to buy the dip, writing that yields aren’t too high and the Fed’s won’t derail the economy’s rebound. “We view the recent equity volatility as an adjustment to the Fed’s incrementally more hawkish stance, rather than a sign that the Fed is about to bring the recovery and the equity rally abruptly to an end,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note. “We now expect three Fed rate hikes this year, starting as soon as March.”

“We are looking for opportunities to raise our weighting in stocks in 2022,” according to Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, whose firm has a neutral stance on equities. “The global recovery remains resilient, thanks to a strong labor market, pent-up demand for services and healthy corporate balance sheets.”  

In his second term confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee at 10am ET today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will say the central bank will keep inflation from becoming entrenched, but the post-pandemic economy may look different from previous expansions. Meanwhile, swaps indicate the Fed will implement as many as four interest-rate hikes this year, while the momentum is building for the first increase to take place as soon as March, although any economic slowdown will quickly crash these plans.

In U.S. premarket trading, technology stocks including Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. rose. Tesla Inc. gained following positive autos sales data from China and a price target hike at Morgan Stanley. Intel Corp. shares jumped after the chipmaker hired Micron Technology Inc.’s David Zinsner as chief financial officer. Here are some of the other big movers today:

  • Mega-cap U.S. technology stocks edged higher in premarket trading, hinting at a return of dip-buyers after last week’s selloff wiped $1.1 trillion from the value of the Nasdaq Composite Index. Tesla (TSLA US), Apple (AAPL US), Microsoft (MSFT US) are among the companies moving higher.
  • Tesla (TSLA US) shares gain 2% in U.S. premarket trading, following positive autos sales data from China and a PT hike at Morgan Stanley. Chinese EV peers also rally.
  • Intel (INTC US) shares gain 2.3% in U.S. premarket trading after the chipmaker hires Micron’s David Zinsner as CFO. Micron shares decline 1%.
  • TechnipFMC (FTI US) falls 6.6% in U.S. premarket trading after Technip Energies bought back 1.8m of its shares from TechnipFMC. TechnipFMC announced plan to delist from Euronext Paris and move to a single U.S. listing.
  • Rivian Automotive (RIVN US) dropped in post- market trading Monday after a Dow Jones report that its chief operating officer left the company last month as it ramped up production. Shares tumbled 5.6% in regular trading to close at a record low.
  • Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) fell in postmarket trading after Citi downgraded the stock to neutral from buy, citing valuation
  • Inari Medical Inc. jumped 10% in postmarket trading after the medical device company posted preliminary 4Q revenue that topped expectations.

Tech shares also led gains in Europe, where equities mostly reversed Monday’s sell off with the Euro Stoxx 50 rising ~1.25%. Technology, travel, consumer products and health-care stocks are among Europe’s top performing sectors Tuesday as investors rotate into sectors beaten down in recent sessions. BE Semi shares gain 4.3%, best performing tech stocks, while food delivery stocks gain on Delivery Hero’s outlook and HelloFresh introducing a new share buyback. Meanwhile banking and auto stocks — this year’s top performing sectors – are at the bottom of the leaderboard, with banks falling for the first time this year: Deutsche Bank -1.6% and Commerzbank -2.9%, biggest decliners in Europe as Cerberus cuts stakes. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Technology, travel, consumer products and health-care stocks are among Europe’s top performing sectors Tuesday as investors rotate into sectors beaten down in recent sessions.
  • Delivery Hero +6.2% at noon CET, Sinch +8.6%, BE Semiconductor 7.2%, HelloFresh +4.2%
  • Pandora shares rise as much as 7.5% after publishing preliminary 4Q sales numbers, which Morgan Stanley says provide relief for investors and suggest “solid underlying momentum.”
  • Sika shares climb as much as 5.2%, the steepest intraday gain since November, after the Swiss construction- materials maker reported 4Q sales that beat expectations, Vontobel says.
  • Brunello Cucinelli shares jump as much as 8.4% after the Italian apparel maker reported 4Q sales that showed all channels and geographies accelerating from the previous quarter.
  • Shop Apotheke rise as much as 2.5% after reporting preliminary 4Q numbers. Citi notes sales are driven by “solid 4Q performance,” adding questions remain on e-prescriptions in Germany.
  • Darktrace soared the most since its trading debut after the cybersecurity company boosted its outlook, prompting an upgrade from the broker whose bearish note triggered a plunge last year.
  • JDE Peet’s, Reckitt fall, among the worst performers in Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index, after Exane BNP Paribas downgrades the stocks in a note that says it’s “not too enthused” about the 2022 outlook for consumer staples.
  • Castellum falls as much as its chief executive officer was ousted after only one month at the helm of one of Sweden’s biggest property companies, while DNB also downgraded the shares.
  • About You shares drop as much as 7.4% after the company reported 3Q21 sales below market consensus, in addition to higher-than-expected costs related to marketing and expansion.

Meanwhile, earlier in the session, Asian stocks were poised to halt a two-day gain as investors sold high-growth technology shares amid uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1% after dropping as much as 0.7% as information-technology firms slid, while gains in financial shares helped limit the gauge’s loss. China’s CSI 300 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average were among the worst performers in the region. Asia’s benchmark is struggling to pull itself from last year’s 3.4% slump amid lingering concerns over U.S. tightening, China’s weak technology shares and the possibility of new restrictions to contain the pandemic. 

“It’s a bit difficult to aggressively buy up stocks,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. “People are wary over the possibility of a faster-than-expected rate hike cycle.”  Still, Pfizer’s remarks suggesting a vaccine for the omicron variant could be available as early as March “will somewhat alleviate concern over the virus,” Ichikawa added. Pfizer is developing a hybrid vaccine that combines its original shot with a formulation that shields against the highly transmissible omicron variant, CEO Albert Bourla said at a conference on Monday.

Japanese equities slid for a third day after the yen strengthened against the dollar and amid continued concerns over virus infections and U.S. monetary tightening. Electronics and chemical makers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 0.4%. Keyence dropped 7.9% as investors sold growth stocks amid uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s plan, Ichiyoshi Asset Management said.  Tokyo Electron and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 0.9% loss in the Nikkei 225. The yen slightly weakened against the dollar after gaining 0.8% in the previous four sessions. Many now expect the Fed will implement four quarter-point interest-rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Japan will extend its tightened border measures until the end of February as virus cases surge in the country

India’s benchmark equity index ended higher, after swinging between gains and losses during the day, ahead of quarterly earnings for top companies. The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 0.4% to close at 60,616.89 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index added 0.3% to complete a third session of gains. Housing Development Finance Corp gave the biggest boost to the Sensex, rising 1.9%. Of the 30 shares in the Sensex, 16 rose and 14 fell. Thirteen of the 19 sector indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by a gauge of power stocks.  The S&P BSE Metal Index fell 2.8%, the most in three weeks, after Jefferies India Pvt. put out a cautious view on the metals sector in 2022. The brokerage downgraded Tata Steel Ltd. to hold and JSW Steel to underperform from buy.   Analysts expect a steady growth in sales for the nation’s top software exporters, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and Wipro, which are scheduled to release their Oct.-Dec. earnings reports on Wednesday.  “All eyes are on the earnings of the three IT majors. We reiterate our positive yet cautious view on markets and suggest focusing more on sector and stock selection,” Ajit Mishra, vice president research at Religare Broking Ltd. wrote in a note.  India is ramping up its vaccination drive for younger population and booster shots for senior citizens as Covid-19 cases climb.

Australian stocks extended losses as bank, consumer staples weighed. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.8% to close at 7,390.10, down for a second straight day, with banks and consumer staples among sectors weighing most on the benchmark. Ten of the 11 industry sub-gauges closed lower, while materials stocks were little changed. Inghams was among the worst performers, tumbling after the company said the spread of omicron is having a significant impact on its supply chain, operations, logistics and sales performance. Polynovo soared after the company reported U.S. sales were up 58% year on year.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 12,831.73.

In rates, Treasuries were cheaper across front-end of the curve while long-end outperforms with 10-year Treasury yields on either side of 1.75% giving the curve a small bull flattening bias as participants set up for first of this week’s auctions, in the form of a 3-year note sale at 1pm ET.  Treasury yields are cheaper by 2.4bp in 2-year sector, flattening 2s10s spread as 10s are little changed at 1.76%; long-end yields are ~1bp richer on the day, flattening 5s30s spread by ~3bp toward last year’s low. Gilts outperformed by 1.7bp in 10-year sector, bunds by ~0.5bp. The US coupon auction cycle includes $52b 3-year new issue, $36b 10-year reopening Wednesday and $22b 30-year reopening Thursday; the WI 3-year yield at around 1.240% exceeds auction stops since February 2020; last month’s drew 1%, 0.3bp below the WI yield at the bidding deadline. IG dollar issuance slate includes five deals announced overnight; ten borrowers priced $12.2b Monday. Peripheral spreads widen slightly, books on Spain’s 10y syndication top EU58b.

In FX, Bloomberg Dollar Spot returns to flat on the session after a choppy morning, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index drifting with EUR/USD little changed at around $1.33; the 10-year Treasury yield is steady at 1.75%. Commodity currencies lead in G-10, JPY lags, fading roughly half of Monday’s strength: the Norwegian krone outperforms G-10 peers alongside the Canadian dollar as oil snaps a two-day run of declines. The Japanese yen lags, halting a four-day rally as an easing of concern over the omicron outbreak damped demand for haven assets. Australia’s dollar strengthens after retail sales beat forecasts. “The Aussie has received a bit of a boost from the strong retail-sales data, but also some bargain hunting in equities with S&P 500 futures trading a little higher,” said David Forrester, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.

In commodities, crude futures rise over 1%. WTI regains a $79-handle, pushing through Monday’s highs. Brent rises through $82. Spot gold adds ~$4 but struggles to make headway through $1,810/oz. Base metals are in the green after a prolonged exchange outage, with LME nickel up over 3%.

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be Fed Chair Powell’s nomination hearing for a second term at the Senate Banking Committee. We’ll also hear from the Fed’s Mester, George and Bullard, along with the ECB’s Kazaks. Data releases include Italian retail sales for November, and in the US there’s the NFIB small business optimism index for December.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,681.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 484.28
  • MXAP little changed at 193.02
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 630.48
  • Nikkei down 0.9% to 28,222.48
  • Topix down 0.4% to 1,986.82
  • Hang Seng Index little changed at 23,739.06
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,567.44
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 60,584.58
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 7,390.12
  • Kospi little changed at 2,927.38
  • Brent Futures up 1.5% to $82.08/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,809.09
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.17% to 95.83
  • German 10Y yield little changed at -0.06%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1342

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched while cautioning that the post-pandemic economy might look different than the previous expansion
  • Asian stocks and U.S. futures fluctuated Tuesday ahead of a key American inflation reading that’s expected to strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy
  • Boris Johnson is facing opposition calls for his resignation over an alleged drinks party in his Downing Street office while pandemic curbs were in place, renewing a sense of crisis around the U.K. premier
  • President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said Russian-led troops that helped him crush an uprising would begin to leave in two days as he denounced “oligarchic groups” that dominate Kazakhstan’s economy

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equities were subdued following on from the mostly negative lead from Wall St where stocks declined at the open, but then finished off their lows and the Nasdaq fully recovered from a near-3% drop as yields wavered. ASX 200 (-0.8%) was pressured with the index dragged lower by underperformance in the top-weighted financials and consumer staples sectors amid expectations that the ongoing Omicron wave is to slow the economic recovery, with better-than-expected Retail Sales data doing little to lift sentiment. Nikkei 225 (-0.9%) underperformed on return from the holiday closure amid confirmation that border restrictions will be extended until end-February and after some prefectures recently entered into COVID-19 pre-emergency status, while KOSPI (+0.1%) was also cautious following a second suspected ballistic missile launch by North Korea in less than a week. Hang Seng (Unch.) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.7%) were choppy with price action rangebound amid a neutral PBoC liquidity operation and after China’s Cabinet reiterated to refrain from flood-like stimulus but will expand financial consumption. Furthermore, COVID-19 concerns persisted with Tianjin imposing a partial lockdown and Hong Kong suspending in-person kindergarten and primary school lessons, although Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam also announced to launch a new anti-epidemic relief fund. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially flat as the risk averse mood in Tokyo stocks and presence of the BoJ in the market for over JPY 1tln of JGBs failed to spur demand, while prices were later pressured on return from the lunch break in a retreat beneath the 151.00 level.

Top Asian News

  • Asia Stocks Set to Snap 2-Day Gain as Fed Outlook Hits Tech
  • Japan’s Household Inflation Expectations Jump to Most Since 2008
  • Mizuho Set to Appoint New CEO as Technical Glitches Persist
  • Shimao Downgraded to B- by Fitch on Liquidity Concerns

European equities (Stoxx 600 +1.0%) are attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s losses and catch up with the late rally seen on Wall St. yesterday. Fresh fundamental/macro drivers for the region are lacking, however, from a technical standpoint, the Stoxx 600 (currently 484) still has some ground to cover before it reaches yesterday’s opening level of 487.58 and last week’s record high (4th Jan) at 495.46. The handover from the APAC region was a downbeat one as Japanese participants returned to the fray (Nikkei 225 -0.9%), with the ASX 200 (-0.8%) hampered by losses in financial and consumer discretionary names, whilst Chinese bourses (Hang Seng flat, Shanghai Comp. -0.7%) were subdued by ongoing COVID angst and further reiterations from China’s cabinet that it will avoid flood-like stimulus. Stateside, US futures have picked up throughout the European session with gains of a similar magnitude across the majors (ES +0.4%, NQ +0.4%, RTY +0.4%). Focus for the US will fall on Fed Chair Powell’s renomination hearing at the Senate Banking Committee which will see the policymaker grilled on how he is going to attempt to combat the current inflationary pressures in the US economy. In terms of desk views, analysts at BNP Paribas suggest that European equities could stage a rally over the coming months amid bearish positioning and attractive valuations. BNP forecasts the Eurostoxx 50 gaining 10% to 4,700 by the end of June before drifting lower to 4,500 by the end of the year. Preferred sectors include miners, oil & gas, banks, autos and healthcare. Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer with tech top of the pile in the wake of the rally staged after the European close in the Nasdaq. Retail names are also on a firmer footing with Kering (+3.4%) top of the CAC after RBC named the Co. among its preferred stocks in the region and cited it as a “more likely candidate for M&A”. RBC also listed Adidas (+4.1%), Puma (+2.3%), Richemont (+2.1%) and LVMH (+1.5%) as “outperform rated stocks” under its “Key Stock Ideas for 2022”. The travel & leisure sector has been lifted by performance in Flutter Entertainment (+4.1%) and Evolution Gaming (+4.9%) after both companies were upgraded at Citi. Performance in banking names has been subdued by losses in Deutsche Bank (-1.5%) and Commerzbank (-3.3%) after Cerberus sold around 21mln and 25.3mln of shares in both companies respectively.

Top European News

  • Boris Johnson Urged to Quit Over Latest Pandemic Party Claim
  • Putin’s Troops Prepare to Exit as Kazakh Leader Blasts Oligarchs
  • Spain Calls for Debate to Consider Covid as Endemic, Like Flu
  • Cerberus Scales Back Losing Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank Bet

In FX, the Dollar has lost more of Monday’s recovery momentum as US Treasuries rebound from their fresh lows, risk appetite improves and some technical or psychological levels push the Buck back down towards recent lows. Using the index as a proxy, 96.000 is now capping the upside and support is seen at yesterday’s low (96.754) ahead of last Friday’s base (95.710) and the prior weekly trough (96.653) as the DXY drifts within a 95.947-765 band awaiting tomorrow’s CPI data that could well be pivotal, if not Fed commentary later today via George and chair Powell at this renomination testimony. Note, however, a prepared text for the latter has already been released so it will be the Q&A section of the Senate Banking Committee hearing that will likely be more informative/insightful.

  • GBP/CHF/EUR/AUD/CAD/NZD – It has turned into a relatively tight race to reap the most from the Greenback’s retreat and top the G10 ranks as Sterling tests major trendline resistance seen around 1.3610-15 to post highs not seen since late 2021, while Eur/Gbp continues to hammer on the door aligning with 1.2000 in Euros per Pound, but looks thwarted indirectly by activity designed at curbing Franc strength via various Eur crosses. Indeed, the Franc is back above 0.9250, but well off best levels against the Euro as the pair pivots 1.0500 where 1.44 bn or so option expiries roll off. Eur/Usd is eyeing 1.1350 again, partly as a result, while the Aussie is approaching 0.7200 with impetus from much stronger than expected final retail sales and internals within a narrower than forecast trade surplus, the Loonie is latching on to a firm bounce in WTI either side of 1.2650 and the Kiwi is hovering above 0.6750 with tailwinds from Aud/Nzd easing back towards 1.0600.
  • JPY – The Yen looks somewhat caught between stalls following Japan’s long holiday weekend as the risk backdrop is negative for the safe-haven currency, but yields are more supportive along with the technical landscape assuming Usd/Jpy remains below a Fib retracement level at 115.45. From a fundamental perspective, the domestic COVID situation has worsened and data looms in the guise of current accounts and trade balances.
  • SCANDI/EM – Brent’s revival to circa Usd 82/brl or just above at best is keeping the Nok underpinned after yesterday’s strong Norwegian inflation readings, while the Zar is elevated alongside Gold that is holding comfortably on the Usd 1800/oz handle and over the 200 DMA. Conversely, the Rub appears to be cautious amidst reports from the Russian side that grounds for optimism from talks with the US are few and far between, while the Try has hardly been helped a slightly wider than consensus Turkish current account deficit or the higher price of crude oil.

In commodities, crude prices mounted a recovery in APAC hours that has continued into and exacerbated during the European session taking WTI modestly past yesterday’s peak of USD 79.45/bbl and Brent to almost match its equivalent at USD 82.30/bbl. Fundamentals remain focused on USD/inflation implications, Fed Chair Powell – among other speakers – will be eyed closely for further insight into this; elsewhere, we remain attentive to supply updates and geopolitics. On the supply side, following yesterday’s reports that Libya’s El Sharara has resumed production at 998k BPD the El Feel field (90k BPD) is also reported to be back in action. However, since then the NOC has suspended exports from the Es Sider port, due to bad weather and a lack of storage; typically, loading 300k BPD of crude. While the duration and knock on impact of this suspension is unclear, it is worth noting the NOC says domestic oil output stands at 896k BPD – a figure that is below the resumed output of the El Sharara field. Separately, Reuters sources report that Saudi Aramco has informed multiple APAC purchasers that it will be supplying the entirety of its contractual volumes in February, following Aramco cutting February OSPs to the region to a three-month low in recent sessions. On geopolitics, the morning’s press rounds from the Russian Foreign Ministry have not been particularly constructive after the first day of discussions, but nonetheless they to acknowledge that there are many more rounds to go – since then, sources via Ria indicate that the US has agreed to respond in writing to security proposals from Russia next week. Turning to metals, spot gold and silver are contained with the yellow metal continuing to pivot the USD 1800/oz mark and therefore remains in reach of the 21-, 50 & 200-DMAs. Base metals are more inspiring though LME copper lies in familiar parameters and directionally is in-tune with the broader risk tone.

US Event Calendar

  • 6am: Dec. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, est. 98.7, prior 98.4

Central Banks

  • 9:12am: Fed’s Mester speaks on Bloomberg Television
  • 9:30am: Fed’s George Discusses the Economic and Policy Outlook
  • 10am: Senate Banking Cmte Holds Hearing on Powell Nomination
  • 4pm: POSTPONED – Fed’s Bullard Discusses Economy and Monetary…

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We managed to throw a wrench (albeit a small one) into the 2022 script late in the New York session last night. After an early sharp yield selloff continued to put pressure on tech stocks, 10yr yields finished the day ever-so-slightly lower for the first time in 2022, declining -0.2bps, ending a run of 7 straight increases. Despite the late rally, yesterday was the first time since January 2020 that 10yr yields had at one point traded above the 1.8% mark and markets acknowledged the prospects of multiple rate hikes this year. We’ll likely get some more headlines on monetary policy today, given Fed Chair Powell’s nomination hearing for a second term is taking place before the Senate Banking Committee, but ahead of that Fed funds futures were last night pricing in an 89% chance of an initial rate hike as soon as March, the highest probability to date and up from 63% just 10 days’ earlier on New Year’s Eve and 0% in the first half of October.

Looking elsewhere on the Treasury curve, tighter anticipated policy helped yields trade at post-pandemic highs on the shorter part of the curve, with 2yr and 5yr yields both hitting their highest levels in almost 2 years. And in keeping with the déjà vu theme of the year so far, it won’t surprise you to find out that real yields were once again the driver behind higher nominal yields, with the 5yr real yield up +1.9bps, while 10yr real yields hit -0.72% intraday, the highest level since April before falling back to -0.77% as the turnaround occurred. Meanwhile in Europe the 10yr bund yield (+0.9bps) ended the session (before the late US bond rally) at -0.038%, as it kept edging closer to positive territory for the first time since May 2019.

The late rally in longer-term yields was an immediate boon to equities. The S&P 500 finished the day down -0.15%, after being more than -2.0% lower intraday. The reversal in equity fortunes clearly hinged on the tech sector performance; the Nasdaq finished +0.05% higher, basically unchanged, after being -2.78% lower intraday, which was more than -10% off the all-time highs. In line, the Vix index of volatility rose to a year-to-date high of 23.33pts intraday, before retracing and finishing a mere +0.64pts higher at 19.4pts.

As has been the case on a number of days to start the year, the European equity session missed the intraday turn that happened during New York trading. The STOXX 600 (-1.48%) experienced its worst daily performance since the initial Omicron selloff in November. As with last week, banks were relatively well-insulated from the broader selloff in light of the higher yields, with the STOXX Banks only down -0.28%, but tech stocks bore the brunt of the decline in Europe, with the STOXX Technology index shedding -3.97%. The losses yesterday for the DAX (-1.13%) and the CAC 40 (-1.44%) meant that both moved into negative territory on a YTD basis as well, though the FTSE 100 (-0.53%) has been more resilient, and is still up +0.82% since the start of the year, making it one of the top-performing major indices in the US and Europe.

Asian markets are struggling to find direction this morning. The Nikkei (-0.93%) is trading significantly lower after yesterday’s holiday while the Shanghai Composite (-0.08%), CSI (-0.29%), Kospi (-0.06%) are slightly lower. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.29%) is modestly higher. In Covid news, China locked down its central Henan province as the city has registered the most covid cases nationwide. Elsewhere, in Japan, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that the nation will extend its strict border restrictions until late February to prevent the spread of the Omicron variant. Looking forward, US equity futures are flattish with the S&P (-0.04%), Nasdaq (-0.06%) and Dow Jones (-0.07%) hardly moving. Treasury yields are also flat after yesterday’s turnaround. China’s consumer and producer prices data tomorrow is the next big Asian highlight.

A separate ongoing story this week will be the various talks between the US, Russia and allies over Russia’s various security demands, including that Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO, and a Russian veto over military deployments in nearby states. Yesterday, the US and Russian deputy foreign ministers held discussions in Geneva, which come ahead of broader talks at a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council tomorrow. The readouts from yesterday’s bilateral talks proved constructive. The senior American diplomat leading the talks noted that the US and Russia have a better understanding of each other’s concerns and priorities following the conversation, and added that “If Russia stays at the table and takes concrete steps to deescalate tensions, we believe we can achieve progress.” At the same time, she noted the US stood ready to impose sanctions, among other measures, if need be. So this week’s ongoing negotiations will be important for the current flashpoint along the Ukrainian border.

Elsewhere, the broader risk-off moves meant that at one point Bitcoin was trading beneath $40,000 for the first time since September, although it pared back some of those losses to only close down -1.38%. It’s been a bad start to the year for the cryptocurrency, having shed around -10% over the first 10 days of the year.

In Fed leadership composition news, Vice Chair Clarida announced his resignation would be effective at the end of this week. It was scheduled for the end of the month so the practical implications are essentially nil. There were more headlines that President Biden was set to nominate new personnel to Fed leadership positions shortly, though headlines of that ilk have been commonplace for a few months now. Perhaps with Vice Chair Clarida stepping aside, there’s more urgency behind appointments, we will see.

There were headlines from Moderna and Pfizer that development of Omicron-specific vaccines were proceeding along. While Moderna is set to begin human trials in a few weeks, Pfizer reported they should be able to launch a hybrid vaccine that offers Omicron-specific protection by March. Given the rate it has spread across the world we may have all been exposed by then!

There wasn’t much at all in the way of data yesterday, though the Euro Area unemployment rate fell to 7.2% in November as expected, its lowest level since March 2020, and the Italian unemployment rate fell to 9.2% that month (vs. 9.3% expected).

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will probably be Fed Chair Powell’s nomination hearing for a second term at the Senate Banking Committee. We’ll also hear from the Fed’s Mester, George and Bullard, along with the ECB’s Kazaks. Data releases include Italian retail sales for November, and in the US there’s the NFIB small business optimism index for December.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/11/2022 – 08:07

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3FabXe8 Tyler Durden

Will Bitcoin Be Done In By Terrible Zoning Laws?


reason-bitcoinmine2

Since late 2020, a steady hum has been emanating from 15 large metal containers sitting next to an electricity substation in the small community of Limestone in rural Washington County, Tennessee.

Those boxes make up a bitcoin “mine.” Inside each one, a network of linked computers works to solve equations that keep bitcoin’s decentralized network up and running. In exchange for solving these equations—for performing the work of keeping the bitcoin network alive—the mining computers are rewarded with bitcoins. This process is how bitcoins and many other forms of cryptocurrency are brought into the world; it’s complex and computationally intensive, a little like running a video game with cutting-edge graphics.

As anyone who has ever found himself feeling a burst of metallic warmth after pushing his laptop to its limits knows, that constant computational intensity means those boxes are hot—hence the hum, which is produced by all the fans needed to keep this bitcoin “mining” machinery from overheating.

The Limestone bitcoin mine is a mutually profitable enterprise for both BrightRidge, the utility company that owns the substation, and the mine’s operator, crypto company Red Dog Technologies.

BrightRidge, which also owns the land on which the bitcoin mine is located, brings in revenue by selling excess power to Red Dog’s power-hungry mine, which also happens to be its largest customer. Red Dog, meanwhile, says it expects to make a net operating profit of $36 million on its Limestone bitcoin mine over the next 18 months.

Indeed, the mine seemed uncontroversial enough that the Washington County Commission unanimously voted to approve a rezoning of the BrightRidge property to allow for the construction of a “block chain data center” in February 2020 with no debate or discussion.

Soon enough, however, the county began to change course.

In May 2021, the neighbors started complaining that the incessant vibrating noise coming from the mine’s containers of computer equipment was eliminating their ability to peaceably enjoy their own property. Red Dog responded by installing sound barriers, consisting of wood and sound-absorbent padding, while promising to do more to get the noise issue under control.

The county wasn’t mollified. Commissioners complained at public meetings that BrightRidge had misled them about the precise nature of this new data center, downplayed the noise it would make, and hid the fact that it wouldn’t be operated by the utility company directly.

Some of these accusations are more on point than others.

BrightRidge, per a county planning staff report, had promised that noise from its facility would be “small and will not impact or be heard from adjoining properties.”

Neighbors’ complaints show that BrightRidge was, charitably, underestimating the noise impacts of the mine.

On the other hand, court filings show that county staff were having meetings with employees from Griid (Red Dog’s predecessor company) nearly a year before the county claims it first learned about the company and the real nature of its operation.

In November, the county sued BrightRidge. The county’s lawsuit argues that the rezoning of the property to an A-3 business agricultural district might have allowed a blockchain data center, but it didn’t allow a “Bitcoin blockchain verification facility,” otherwise known as a bitcoin mine, and certainly not one operated by an undisclosed third party. (The zoning code itself is silent on what difference, if any, there is between a blockchain data center and a bitcoin mine, and therefore why one would be allowed but not another.)

In short, Red Dog’s bitcoin-mining computers were having code problems—but with zoning rather than ones and zeroes.

For close to a century now, the ever-more-elaborate zoning codes of America’s cities, towns, and rural counties have been frustrating the plans of individual entrepreneurs and whole industries to try out new ideas and practices on their own properties.

Cryptocurrency is no exception. The computerized mines that create and sustain these digital monies and the blockchain networks they’re built on have raised the ire of private citizens and planning commissions alike. The former primarily object, sometimes reasonably, to the noise and vibrations emanating from the mines that open up next to their quiet rural properties. Planners and politicians, however, have taken some of those more reasonable complaints and used them as excuses to attack the mines for their power consumption, and the perceived damage they do to locally set goals of fighting climate change.

As cryptocurrency continues to rise in value, and some foreign countries put pressure on mining, these conflicts are likely to grow more numerous and less amicable. So even when officials are responding to real externalities, the rush to regulate could end up handicapping this new industry and even make some of the problems they seek to combat worse. Bitcoin and its attendant technologies will inevitably face many political and legal challenges in the coming years, but its first big regulatory fight won’t be in Congress. Instead, it will be over a mesh of poorly designed local zoning laws.

Heigh-Ho, High Hums 

The bitcoin network is built on a decentralized ledger known as a blockchain. That ledger is a public record of bitcoin transactions that allows everyone involved to know which anonymized bitcoin wallet owns which individual bitcoin, and prevents someone from making fraudulent digital bitcoin copies.

Keeping the blockchain current and accurate requires lots and lots of computers called application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) plugging away at solving mathematical equations and earning new bitcoins for their efforts. The computations needed to keep the blockchain up to speed are complex. The bitcoins generated from mining go to the machines that solve them first. Those two facts mean you need a lot of ASIC machines burning through a lot of electricity to have a profitable mine.

“These ASICs are not energy efficient. They consume a lot of power,” says Artem Bespaloff, CEO of Asic Jungle, which sells the machines to bitcoin-mining operations. He says your average ASIC consuming between 1,400 and 3,500 watts of power is enough to heat up a 900 square foot room in about 10 minutes.

The power consumption needs of bitcoin mining have a major influence on where these bitcoin mines—the largest of which have tens of thousands of ASIC machines—set up shop, Bespaloff tells Reason.

Popular destinations for bitcoin mining in the United States include Texas, where natural gas is plentiful and energy regulation is not, and Montana with its cool climate and cheap, available hydroelectric power.

Indeed, bitcoin mining is so energy-intensive that many utility companies are actually trying to court these businesses. In some cases, they have offered incentives to set up shop near their power plants and substations in the hopes of getting a reliable customer to soak up spare power.

In Limestone, BrightRidge offered $100,000 and discounted power to the company that would become Red Dog to build its bitcoin mine, according to reporting from WJHL reporter Jeff Keeling.

The same power consumption features of bitcoin mining that determine where they end up also create externalities that can irritate neighbors.

The heat generated by banks of ASICs requires fans to keep everything cool. Those can produce a tremendous amount of noise as they spin, particularly at the scale at which bitcoin mines now operate.

Traditional zoning regulations usually try to account for noise externalities by relegating heavy industry to specific areas of the city and setting decibel limits for those operations. That sometimes isn’t enough to wholly account for the particular, and often constant, sound emanating from some bitcoin mines.

The chief building inspector in Plattsburgh, New York—which has become something of a hub for bitcoin mining—told The Wall Street Journal that the problem isn’t so much the volume of bitcoin mines, which is what decibels measure, but the irritating high-frequency pitch that they can produce.

Other people who spoke to the Journal described the sounds of bitcoin mines as akin to the whine of a jet engine, a dental drill, or thousands of hair dryers blowing all at once.

The vibrations can also apparently produce an unpleasant physical sensation. “It’s more than a noise. It’s a vibration that you can feel across your whole body,” said one resident who owns a farm near Red Dog’s Limestone bitcoin mine to WJHL.

Even when these mines sit in industrial areas, and often inside older industrial facilities, they still provoke complaints given that the fans hum at a consistent volume for hours at a time, unlike the more sporadic noises produced by industrial machines of old.

In response to complaints from neighbors, some mine owners in the U.S. have switched to water-cooling methods, which produce less noise, or installed lighter fans that give off less sound. Some have also installed sound barriers and berths on the property—basically sound-absorbing walls that surround the mines themselves and which suck in some of the noise they give off.

In many cases, the noise can be addressed through individual negotiation with mining companies. But it can still prove to be a burden on neighbors—what economists call a  “negative externality,” or a cost born by someone who didn’t choose to participate in a project, and isn’t a party to any potential benefits. And these sorts of externalities can be difficult to resolve through private mechanisms.

Yet regulatory responses often have serious problems of their own. Cities have adopted bitcoin mining–inspired noise rules that are both heavy-handed and ineffectual. Plattsburgh, for instance, imposed an 18-month moratorium on the establishment or expansion of bitcoin-mining operations in 2018, which obviously attracted the ire of local miners and made starting or expanding bitcoin businesses impossible. And by grandfathering in existing operations, that moratorium obviously didn’t address the immediate concerns of neighbors.

Then there’s Washington County, which launched a lawsuit against BrightRidge that was initially sparked by noise complaints. Yet one of the issues raised by the county against the company is that its approved site plan didn’t include the noise barriers the county had later urged it to install. The county’s complaint was that the noise was too loud and BrightRidge should do something about it—and also that the noise mitigation measures hadn’t been approved.

And noise complaints have served as catalysts for local governments to take a tougher approach to regulating all aspects of bitcoin mining. That was certainly the case with the nation’s first true cryptocurrency zoning ordinance.

The Bark Is Worse Than the Bit 

Missoula County, Montana’s first bitcoin mine began life as a project that was warmly welcomed by government officials. In April 2017, the company Project Spokane set up its data center in an old timber mill in the small town of Bonner. In June, the mine was blessed by then-Gov. Steve Bullock with a $416,000 grant from the state’s Big Sky Economic Development Trust Fund.

Soon enough, however, the whir of fans coming from the Project Spokane site—which would later be taken over by the company HyberBlock—began attracting complaints from neighbors.

“Even some of the long-time [spoken interview? if so, “longtime”] residents that clearly remembered the noise from the lumber mill when it was operational at that site said this is very different,” says Diana Maneta, the sustainability program manager for Missoula County’s Community and Planning Services Department.

While the lumber mill was loud, the noise it produced would come and go. Maneta says people described the consistent hum from the bitcoin mine as more like “a jet engine that never lands.”

Prior to the noise complaints, the Project Spokane facility, and indeed the entire cryptocurrency industry, wasn’t on the county government’s radar. But as those complaints surfaced, Maneta says county staff were directed by the county commission to “learn a little more about this industry and whether it might have other local impacts that we should be aware of.”

That piqued the county’s interest about Project Spokane’s electricity use.

Bitcoin mining’s energy intensiveness has made it a target for both environmentalists and already crypto-skeptical politicians who are eager to find any flaw in the decentralized digital currency.

“It’s terrible for the environment,” claimed Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.), who is fond of saying that the average bitcoin transaction uses more electricity than the average U.S. household uses in a month—a misleading statement since there’s no direct link between the number of bitcoin transactions and the amount of energy that’s needed to sustain the blockchain. Other critics point out that bitcoin uses as much energy as countries like Argentina or the Netherlands, without noting that industries like cement and paper production use even more.

Those concerns were nevertheless enough to push Missoula County—which estimated that the Project Spokane/HyberBlock mine was using about a third as much energy as all households in the county—into action.

Beginning with a temporary zoning ordinance in 2019, which was then made into a permanent ordinance in February 2021, the county imposed a number of new restrictions on cryptocurrency mines. That included requirements that they locate in industrial areas and go through the process of getting special conditional use permits—which comes with additional noise restrictions.

The most significant requirement of the zoning ordinance, however, was its green energy regulations. From now on, any cryptocurrency mining operation setting up shop in Missoula [Missoula? Or Missoula County?] would have to purchase or produce enough renewable energy necessary to offset 100 percent of a mine’s energy use.

Without this requirement, Maneta says the county would be at risk of not achieving its set climate goals of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

It’s also a significant entry tax to cryptocurrency mining operations that might want to set up in the county. One of the draws of Montana is the fact that there’s already so much plentiful cheap energy in existence. That advantage is negated when new mines have to either build out or purchase potentially more expensive renewable energy to cover all their consumption.

It’s also a requirement that doesn’t apply to any other industry. A developer could build a new suburban subdivision or another sawmill without having to do anything to offset its power consumption.

Project Spokane’s successor, HyperBlock, which was grandfathered into the new regulations, ended up ceasing operations in May 2020. Later that year, it settled a lawsuit with the local energy provider, Energy Keepers, which claimed that it owed $3 million in overdue power bills.

Maneta says that some cryptocurrency miners have inquired about setting up in Missoula County since the new ordinance has passed, but none have done so yet. Perhaps they’ve learned all they needed to know.

Go East, Young Man  

Bitcoin miners might be having a tough time in Bonner, Montana, and Limestone, Tennessee. Those in China are having a much worse experience.

Beginning in June 2021, the Chinese government ordered five state-run banks to cut off all cryptocurrency transactions. That was followed in September by the Chinese central bank’s total ban on cryptocurrency transactions.

This has been hugely disruptive for bitcoin. Prior to the ban, as much as 80 percent of new cryptocurrency was being minted by Chinese mining operations, according to Nikkei Asia. The industry is now fleeing the country, with North America being the primary destination.

“These miners that have become quite well to do have the means now to transfer their hardware overseas,” says Max Song, a partner at Hong Kong–based investment firm Pacific Century Group. “So we see now a huge concentration of the world mining in North America, specifically in Canada and the United States.”

With more mining operations establishing themselves in the U.S., local conflicts about noise and energy consumption are only going to grow more frequent. That presents a challenge for local governments and the industry itself.

The noise produced by bitcoin mining can be a serious nuisance. It’s reasonable that neighbors would want those noise impacts mitigated, and there’s a role for local governments to play in making that happen.

Too often, however, governments’ response to the racket—as the cases of Washington County and Plattsburgh show—has been to use heavy-handed rules to shut down the cryptocurrency industry rather than pursue peaceful coexistence.

Worse still, legitimate concerns about noise externalities can morph into a wholesale effort to regulate other aspects of the bitcoin-mining industry—including its energy use.

Those regulations, as the example of Missoula County shows, can be a huge effective entry tax on bitcoin mining. That’s economically costly, and potentially environmentally counterproductive.

Mines that would have once set up in the county to take advantage of its abundant (carbon-free) hydroelectric power could instead go to other areas of the state or country where dirtier coal-fired power is king.

Elsewhere, companies are installing mines at oil and gas wells where they use spare fuel—that would otherwise be “flared” or burned off into the atmosphere—to power their operations. Those mines are thus reducing carbon emissions. Under Missoula’s regulations, they’d still be required to build out more renewable power anyway.

Bitcoin, and cryptocurrency generally, is a new industry that’s hard for most people to understand and even harder for politicians to control. The result is a drive to quash or regulate it at all levels of government. As more and more cryptocurrency mines are set up in the U.S., it looks like the real threat to the industry isn’t the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, but rather the local county planning commission.

The post Will Bitcoin Be Done In By Terrible Zoning Laws? appeared first on Reason.com.

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Goldman Slashes China GDP Forecast As CCP Locks Down 20 Million To Fight Omicron Wave

Goldman Slashes China GDP Forecast As CCP Locks Down 20 Million To Fight Omicron Wave

China’s “Zero COVID” strategy is starting to have serious repercussions for economic growth.

After sealing off Tianjin from travel, a city that’s roughly 30 minutes from the Chinese capital of Beijing, earlier this week, the CCP is imposing still more lockdowns as it tries to stamp out the latest COVID outbreak that’s vexing China’s leadership just weeks before the start of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.

On Tuesday, Anyang, a city in the eastern province of Henan, became the latest Chinese city to enter into some form of lockdown. Its residents ordered to stay at home, non-essential businesses shut down, and people banned from driving on the roads, according to the Associated Press, which is also one of the few western news organizations with photographers on the ground inside Xi’an, a city of 13M that has been locked down since just before Christmas.

Source: AP

The lockdown of Anyang, with its 5.5MM residents, was announced late Monday in China, after two cases of the omicron variant were confirmed in the city. Not including Tianjin (where only certain neighborhoods have been locked down, while a travel freeze is in place for the entire city), the CCP now has three cities in different parts of the country on lockdown, with more than 20MM Chinese affected (still a tiny fraction of the country’s 1.4 billion people.

Another 13 million people have been locked down in Xi’an for nearly three weeks, and 1.1 million more in Yuzhou for more than a week. It wasn’t clear how long the lockdown of Anyang would last, as it was announced as a measure to facilitate mass testing of residents, which is standard procedure in China’s strategy of identifying and isolating infected people as quickly as possible.

The Anyang omicron cases are believed to be linked to two other cases found Saturday in Tianjin. According to China’s NHC, this is the first time that cases of omicron have spread within the country, aside from cases being identified in travelers arriving to China.

Anyang’s leaders said that non-essential vehicles are banned from streets in a lockdown notice shared online by state media late Monday. The number of cases is still relatively low, with 58 new ones confirmed from the start of Monday to 0800 local time Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, in Tianjin, 97 people had tested positive in the city of 14MM people: 49 with symptoms, 15 without symptoms and 33 awaiting further verification. Xi’an and Yuzhou are both battling the delta variant and neither has reported any local cases of omicron.

With chipmakers in Xi’an already reporting serious production disruptions due to the lockdown, analysts at Goldman Sachs revealed Tuesday morning in a note to their clients that they had cut their forecast for Chinese GDP growth in 2022.

“In light of the latest Covid developments – in particular, the likely higher average level of restriction (and thus economic cost) to contain the more infectious Omicron variant – we are revising down our 2022 growth forecast to 4.3%, from 4.8% previously”.

With the Fed expected to slam the breaks on the US economy by hiking interest rates up to four times this year (or more), this doesn’t bode well for the strength of the global economy as the world struggles to shake off the legacy of COVID and more than a decade of NIRP and ZIRP.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/11/2022 – 07:58

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