The Republican Party’s Retirement Problem

Last week, Texas Rep. Will Hurd, the lone African-American Republican in the House, announced that he would be retiring from Congress. Hurd’s exit is part of a wave of GOP departures that signal the particular ways the Republican party is struggling under President Donald Trump—but also how its problems don’t stop with the president. 

Hurd, who is just 41, successfully won and held a Republican seat in the San Antonio area. It’s one of the nation’s most competitive districts, and it went for Hillary Clinton in 2016. From a strictly electoral perspective, Hurd’s departure is a huge loss for the GOP. 

After announcing his exit, Hurd criticized Trump for saying that a quartet of Democratic minority congresswomen—three of whom were born in the United States, and all of whom are citizens—should “go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came.” 

“When you imply that because someone doesn’t look like you, in telling them to go back to Africa or wherever, you’re implying that they’re not an American and you’re implying that they have less worth than you,” Hurd told The Washington Post.

It is understandably hard to be a black Republican under Trump. From his birtherist conspiracy theories about President Obama to his repeated attacks on immigrants as criminals and invaders, Trump has not exactly made the GOP friendly to minorities—even before his recent racialized attacks on Democratic politicians. The party’s descent into a cult of personality, willing to bend or break its principles and ideas in order to defend a president who remains intensely popular with the party’s base, has made it even more difficult for those who find Trump’s brand of politics distasteful or offensive to speak up in response.  

But it’s also just hard to be a Republican under Trump, period. Which is why Hurd is only the latest and most prominent GOP lawmaker to announce an exit from Congress. Prior to Hurd’s announcement, two other Texas Republicans, Mike Conaway, who represents the Midland area, and Pete Olson, who represents a district outside Houston, also said they’d be retiring. Just yesterday, Rep. Kenny Marchant, a Republican from the Dallas area, also said he would not seek re-election. Since the beginning of the year, Republicans from Utah, Indiana, Georgia, and Alabama have thrown in the towel. More retirement announcements are expected to come. 

Trump shoulders no small share of the blame for the dwindling enthusiasm of GOP representatives; behind closed doors, many freely admit they don’t like him, don’t like defending him, and don’t like the ugly, circus-like politics he has enabled. Trump makes everything about Trump, which makes it more difficult for legislators who would like to focus on actual legislating to do the jobs they wanted to do.  

But Trump isn’t the only problem; GOP leadership has also played a role, even before Trump was elected, in centralizing legislative power and turning ordinary Republican lawmakers—especially in the House—into fundraising machines who are expected to show up and vote the way they’re told but have little impact on actual legislation. That’s at least part of how you end up with the pair of big-spending budget deals that have passed in the last two years, and also how you end up with a majority of GOP House members voting against this year’s deal, in a too-little-too-late exercise in symbolic fiscal rectitude. (It certainly helped that this time Democrats held the House majority.) 

As Georgetown University’s Matt Glassman put it last week in an instructive Twitter thread on congressional retirements “the fun and interesting things are becoming a much smaller part of the job, while the tedious and soul-crushing aspects are increasingly occupying members’ time.” In earlier eras, Glassman wrote, “most members participated substantively in the policy process via the committee system. But the process is now tightly controlled by leadership, reducing opportunities for members to influence legislation.” 

Glassman wasn’t talking only about Republican retirements, but it seems to be a particularly acute problem for the GOP. Certainly, it’s a complaint I have heard frequently when talking privately to lawmakers and their staffers. And sometimes, as in the case of rabble-rousers like Rep. Thomas Massie (R–Ky.) or Justin Amash (I–Mich.), they even say it in public. 

The point isn’t that being a member of Congress is supposed to be fun or entertaining; sometimes serving the public is frustrating and involves hard work. But it should be productive, and the combination of Trump, who seems to go out of his way to transform every political discussion into a forum on his dubious personal merits, and the centralization of legislative power by Republican leadership, means that GOP elected officials have little to do except raise money and defend a man that many of them despise. 

What is perhaps most ironic about this is that the putative goal of both strategies is to win and hold Republican seats—by sticking with a president that GOP voters like, and by micromanaging the legislative process so that no individual member has the capacity to get out of line and make headaches for the entire party. And yet the wave of retirements in toss-up districts like Hurd’s has the potential to cost the GOP, especially in the House. To paraphrase Princess Leia in Star Wars, the more GOP leaders tighten their grip, the more contested seats will slip through their fingers. Republicans can’t win without lawmakers like Will Hurd, but the party appears determined to do everything it can to push people like him away. 

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The Republican Party’s Retirement Problem

Last week, Texas Rep. Will Hurd, the lone African-American Republican in the House, announced that he would be retiring from Congress. Hurd’s exit is part of a wave of GOP departures that signal the particular ways the Republican party is struggling under President Donald Trump—but also how its problems don’t stop with the president. 

Hurd, who is just 41, successfully won and held a Republican seat in the San Antonio area. It’s one of the nation’s most competitive districts, and it went for Hillary Clinton in 2016. From a strictly electoral perspective, Hurd’s departure is a huge loss for the GOP. 

After announcing his exit, Hurd criticized Trump for saying that a quartet of Democratic minority congresswomen—three of whom were born in the United States, and all of whom are citizens—should “go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came.” 

“When you imply that because someone doesn’t look like you, in telling them to go back to Africa or wherever, you’re implying that they’re not an American and you’re implying that they have less worth than you,” Hurd told The Washington Post.

It is understandably hard to be a black Republican under Trump. From his birtherist conspiracy theories about President Obama to his repeated attacks on immigrants as criminals and invaders, Trump has not exactly made the GOP friendly to minorities—even before his recent racialized attacks on Democratic politicians. The party’s descent into a cult of personality, willing to bend or break its principles and ideas in order to defend a president who remains intensely popular with the party’s base, has made it even more difficult for those who find Trump’s brand of politics distasteful or offensive to speak up in response.  

But it’s also just hard to be a Republican under Trump, period. Which is why Hurd is only the latest and most prominent GOP lawmaker to announce an exit from Congress. Prior to Hurd’s announcement, two other Texas Republicans, Mike Conaway, who represents the Midland area, and Pete Olson, who represents a district outside Houston, also said they’d be retiring. Just yesterday, Rep. Kenny Marchant, a Republican from the Dallas area, also said he would not seek re-election. Since the beginning of the year, Republicans from Utah, Indiana, Georgia, and Alabama have thrown in the towel. More retirement announcements are expected to come. 

Trump shoulders no small share of the blame for the dwindling enthusiasm of GOP representatives; behind closed doors, many freely admit they don’t like him, don’t like defending him, and don’t like the ugly, circus-like politics he has enabled. Trump makes everything about Trump, which makes it more difficult for legislators who would like to focus on actual legislating to do the jobs they wanted to do.  

But Trump isn’t the only problem; GOP leadership has also played a role, even before Trump was elected, in centralizing legislative power and turning ordinary Republican lawmakers—especially in the House—into fundraising machines who are expected to show up and vote the way they’re told but have little impact on actual legislation. That’s at least part of how you end up with the pair of big-spending budget deals that have passed in the last two years, and also how you end up with a majority of GOP House members voting against this year’s deal, in a too-little-too-late exercise in symbolic fiscal rectitude. (It certainly helped that this time Democrats held the House majority.) 

As Georgetown University’s Matt Glassman put it last week in an instructive Twitter thread on congressional retirements “the fun and interesting things are becoming a much smaller part of the job, while the tedious and soul-crushing aspects are increasingly occupying members’ time.” In earlier eras, Glassman wrote, “most members participated substantively in the policy process via the committee system. But the process is now tightly controlled by leadership, reducing opportunities for members to influence legislation.” 

Glassman wasn’t talking only about Republican retirements, but it seems to be a particularly acute problem for the GOP. Certainly, it’s a complaint I have heard frequently when talking privately to lawmakers and their staffers. And sometimes, as in the case of rabble-rousers like Rep. Thomas Massie (R–Ky.) or Justin Amash (I–Mich.), they even say it in public. 

The point isn’t that being a member of Congress is supposed to be fun or entertaining; sometimes serving the public is frustrating and involves hard work. But it should be productive, and the combination of Trump, who seems to go out of his way to transform every political discussion into a forum on his dubious personal merits, and the centralization of legislative power by Republican leadership, means that GOP elected officials have little to do except raise money and defend a man that many of them despise. 

What is perhaps most ironic about this is that the putative goal of both strategies is to win and hold Republican seats—by sticking with a president that GOP voters like, and by micromanaging the legislative process so that no individual member has the capacity to get out of line and make headaches for the entire party. And yet the wave of retirements in toss-up districts like Hurd’s has the potential to cost the GOP, especially in the House. To paraphrase Princess Leia in Star Wars, the more GOP leaders tighten their grip, the more contested seats will slip through their fingers. Republicans can’t win without lawmakers like Will Hurd, but the party appears determined to do everything it can to push people like him away. 

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Sarah Palin’s Libel Case Against New York Times Can Go Forward

The opinion is here; the court concluded that Palin had adequately alleged “actual malice”—a misleading term meaning that the New York Times editor responsible for the article over which she was suing knew it was false or likely to be false—and the district judge therefore erred in dismissing the case. (This of course doesn’t show that Palin has proved such knowledge, only that she should be offered a chance to prove it.)

Here are the facts that led to the lawsuit:

On January 8, 2011, Jared Loughner opened fire at a political rally for Democratic Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson, Arizona (“the Loughner shooting”), killing six people and injuring thirteen others. Representative Giffords was seriously wounded in the attack.

Shortly before the tragic attack, Sarah Palin’s political action committee (“SarahPAC”) had circulated a map that superimposed the image of a crosshairs target over certain Democratic congressional districts (evoking, in the view of many, images of violence). Giffords’ district was among those targeted by the SarahPAC crosshairs map. The image had been publicized during the earlier political controversy surrounding the Affordable Care Act, but in the wake of the Loughner shooting, some speculated that the shooting was connected to the crosshairs map. No evidence ever emerged to establish that link; in fact, the criminal investigation of Loughner indicated that his animosity toward Representative Giffords had arisen before SarahPAC published the map.

Six years later, on June 14, 2017, another political shooting occurred when James Hodgkinson opened fire in Alexandria, Virginia at a practice for a congressional baseball game. He seriously injured four people, including Republican Congressman Steve Scalise (“the Hodgkinson shooting”). That same evening, the Times, under the Editorial Board’s byline, published an editorial entitled “America’s Lethal Politics” (“the editorial”) in response to the shooting.

The editorial argued that these two political shootings evidenced the “vicious” nature of American politics. Reflecting on the Loughner shooting and the SarahPAC crosshairs map, the editorial claimed that the “link to political incitement was clear,” and noted that Palin’s political action committee had “circulated a map of targeted electoral districts that put Ms. Giffords and 19 other Democrats under stylized cross hairs,” suggesting that the  congressmembers themselves had been pictured on the map.2 In the next paragraph, the editorial referenced the Hodgkinson shooting that had happened that day: “Though there’s no sign of incitement as direct as in the Giffords attack, liberals should of course hold themselves to the same standard of decency that they ask of the right.”

The Times faced an immediate backlash for publishing the editorial. Within a day, it had changed the editorial and issued a correction. The Times removed the two phrases suggesting a link between Palin and the Loughner shooting. Added to the editorial was a correction that read: “An earlier version of this editorial incorrectly stated that a link existed between political incitement and the 2011 shooting of Representative Gabby Giffords. In fact, no such link was established.” The Times also clarified that the SarahPAC map had overlaid crosshairs on Democratic congressional districts, not the representatives themselves.

Twelve days after the editorial was published Palin sued the Times in federal court….

The Times moved to dismiss the case, and the district judge held an evidentiary hearing to decide whether the allegations of “actual malice” against the Times were plausible; the judge concluded that the allegations weren’t plausible, based on the testimony of “James Bennet, the editorial page editor at the Times and the author of the editorial”:

Bennet was the hearing’s only witness. Bennet explained  at the hearing that his reference to Palin in the editorial was intended to make a rhetorical point about the present atmosphere of political anger. He also recounted the editorial’s research and publication process and answered inquiries about his prior knowledge of the Loughner shooting six years earlier and any connection to Palin. Bennet testified that he was unaware of any of the earlier articles published by the Times, or by The Atlantic (where he had previously been the editor‐in‐chief), that indicated that no connection between Palin or her political action committee and Loughner had ever been established. In addition to answering questions from the Times’ counsel, Bennet responded to questions by Palin’s counsel and the district judge.

No, said the court of appeals: Among other things, the district judge’s decision “relied on credibility determinations not permissible at any stage before trial.” And the court of appeals held that Palin’s proposed amended complaint sufficiently alleged knowledge of falsity or likely falsity on Bennet’s part:

The [Complaint] alleges that, from 2006 to 2016, Bennet was the editor‐in‐chief of The Atlantic, where “he was responsible for the content of, reviewed, edited and approved the publication of numerous articles confirming there was no link between Mrs. Palin and Loughner’s shooting.” The complaint references several articles about the Loughner shooting published by The Atlantic during Bennet’s tenure, the most notable of which is entitled “Ten Days That Defined 2011.” The part of that article discussing the Loughner shooting reads: “… the bad thing to come out of this already terrible story was a round of blame hurling, with people rushing to point at Sarah Palin’s infamous target map …. In truth, Loughner is clinically insane and this was not really about politics at all.”

At the hearing, Bennet stated that he could not recall reading those articles, and even if he had read them, he did not have them in mind when he published the editorial. The district court, in rejecting Palin’s theory as implausible, credited this testimony as truthful when it found that Bennet’s failure to read the articles was simply a research failure that did not rise to the level of actual malice.

By crediting Bennet’s testimony, the district court rejected a permissible inference from the articles: that one who had risen to editor‐in‐chief at The Atlantic knew their content and thus that there was no connection between Palin and the Loughner shooting. That Palin’s complaint sufficiently alleges that Bennet’s opportunity to  know the journalistic consensus that the connection was lacking gives rise to the inference that he actually did know.

The [Complaint] also includes allegations suggesting that Bennet in particular was more likely than the average editor‐in‐chief to know the truth about the Loughner shooting because he had reason to be personally hostile toward Palin, her political party, and her pro‐gun stance. Bennet’s brother, a Democrat, had served as a United States Senator for Colorado since 2009. In 2010, Senator Bennet was endorsed by two House members whose districts had been targeted by the SarahPAC map. Two days before the Loughner shooting, a man threatened to open fire on Senator Bennet’s offices, and thereafter both Bennet brothers became “outspoken advocate[s] for gun control.” Also, during the 2016 election, Palin endorsed Senator Bennet’s  opponent  and  Representative  Giffords  endorsed Senator Bennet.

The district court gave no weight to these allegations, finding that political opposition did not rise to the level of actual malice. We agree with the district court that political opposition alone does not constitute actual malice, but we conclude that these allegations could indicate  more  than  sheer  political  bias—they  arguably  show that Bennet  had  a  personal  connection  to  a  potential  shooting  that animated  his  hostility  to  pro‐gun  positions  at  the  time  of  the Loughner shooting in 2011. Palin’s allegations are relevant to the credibility of Bennet’s testimony that he was unaware of facts  published on his watch relating to the Loughner shooting and that he made a mistake when he connected Palin to the that shooting. Palin’s allegations present a plausible inference that Bennet’s claim of memory loss is untrue.

At a minimum, these allegations give rise to a plausible inference that Bennet was reckless when he published the editorial without reacquainting himself with the contrary articles published in The  Atlantic  six  years  earlier.  And  that  plausible  inference  of recklessness is strengthened when added to Palin’s allegations that Bennet had reason to be personally biased against Palin and pro‐gun positions in general. When properly viewed in the plaintiff’s favor, a reasonable factfinder could conclude this amounted to more than a mistake due to a research failure.

Second, the PAC also alleges that certain aspects of the drafting and publication process of the editorial at The New York Times permits an inference of actual malice. Elizabeth Williamson, the editorial writer who drafted the initial version of the editorial, had hyperlinked in her draft an article entitled “Sarah Palin’s ‘Crosshairs’ Ad Dominates Gabrielle Giffords Debate.” The article stated, contrary to the claim in the published editorial, that “[n]o connection” was made between the SarahPAC map and Loughner. The link was also included in the final version of the editorial, a version that Bennet essentially rewrote. The Times argues that the hyperlink shows the absence of malice. But  the PAC alleges that, by including a hyperlink that contradicted the argument of his editorial, Bennet “willfully disregarded the truth.”

The district court, siding with the Times, concluded that including the hyperlinked article was further evidence of simple mistake. After crediting Bennet’s testimony that he did not read the hyperlinked article, the district judge concluded that a mistake was the only plausible explanation. But the inclusion of the hyperlinked article gives rise to more than one plausible inference, and any inference to be drawn from the inclusion of the hyperlinked article was for the jury—not the court. In any event, under these circumstances, it was arguably reckless for Bennet to hyperlink an article that he did not read.

Third, the district court concluded that the correction swiftly issued by the Times again demonstrated that the only plausible explanation for the erroneous statements was a mistake. Yet, it is also plausible that the correction was issued after a calculus that standing by the editorial was not worth the cost of the public backlash. Bennet could have published the editorial knowing—or recklessly disregarding—the falsity of the claim, and then decided later that the false allegation was not worth defending.

At bottom, it is plain from the record that the district court found Bennet a credible witness, and that the district court’s crediting his testimony impermissibly anchored the district court’s own negative view of the plausibility of Palin’s allegations.

The district court at one point stated that Bennet’s “behavior is much more plausibly consistent with making an unintended mistake and then correcting it than with acting with actual malice.” Perhaps so, but it is not the district court’s province to dismiss a plausible complaint because it is not as plausible as the defendant’s theory. The test  is  whether  the  complaint  is  plausible,  not  whether  it  is less plausible than an alternative explanation.

The jury may ultimately agree with the district court’s conclusion that Bennet was  credible— but it is the jury that must decide. Therefore, at the pleading stage, we are satisfied that Palin has met her burden to plead facts giving rise to the plausible inference that Bennet published the allegedly defamatory editorial with actual malice. We emphasize that actual malice does not mean maliciousness or ill will; it simply means the statement was “made with knowledge that it was false or with reckless disregard of whether it was false or not.” Here, given the facts alleged, the assertion that Bennet knew the statement was false, or acted with reckless disregard as to whether the statement was false, is plausible.

The case can now go forward. Thanks to Alan Kabat for the pointer.

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Sarah Palin’s Libel Case Against New York Times Can Go Forward

The opinion is here; the court concluded that Palin had adequately alleged “actual malice”—a misleading term meaning that the New York Times editor responsible for the article over which she was suing knew it was false or likely to be false—and the district judge therefore erred in dismissing the case. (This of course doesn’t show that Palin has proved such knowledge, only that she should be offered a chance to prove it.)

Here are the facts that led to the lawsuit:

On January 8, 2011, Jared Loughner opened fire at a political rally for Democratic Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson, Arizona (“the Loughner shooting”), killing six people and injuring thirteen others. Representative Giffords was seriously wounded in the attack.

Shortly before the tragic attack, Sarah Palin’s political action committee (“SarahPAC”) had circulated a map that superimposed the image of a crosshairs target over certain Democratic congressional districts (evoking, in the view of many, images of violence). Giffords’ district was among those targeted by the SarahPAC crosshairs map. The image had been publicized during the earlier political controversy surrounding the Affordable Care Act, but in the wake of the Loughner shooting, some speculated that the shooting was connected to the crosshairs map. No evidence ever emerged to establish that link; in fact, the criminal investigation of Loughner indicated that his animosity toward Representative Giffords had arisen before SarahPAC published the map.

Six years later, on June 14, 2017, another political shooting occurred when James Hodgkinson opened fire in Alexandria, Virginia at a practice for a congressional baseball game. He seriously injured four people, including Republican Congressman Steve Scalise (“the Hodgkinson shooting”). That same evening, the Times, under the Editorial Board’s byline, published an editorial entitled “America’s Lethal Politics” (“the editorial”) in response to the shooting.

The editorial argued that these two political shootings evidenced the “vicious” nature of American politics. Reflecting on the Loughner shooting and the SarahPAC crosshairs map, the editorial claimed that the “link to political incitement was clear,” and noted that Palin’s political action committee had “circulated a map of targeted electoral districts that put Ms. Giffords and 19 other Democrats under stylized cross hairs,” suggesting that the  congressmembers themselves had been pictured on the map.2 In the next paragraph, the editorial referenced the Hodgkinson shooting that had happened that day: “Though there’s no sign of incitement as direct as in the Giffords attack, liberals should of course hold themselves to the same standard of decency that they ask of the right.”

The Times faced an immediate backlash for publishing the editorial. Within a day, it had changed the editorial and issued a correction. The Times removed the two phrases suggesting a link between Palin and the Loughner shooting. Added to the editorial was a correction that read: “An earlier version of this editorial incorrectly stated that a link existed between political incitement and the 2011 shooting of Representative Gabby Giffords. In fact, no such link was established.” The Times also clarified that the SarahPAC map had overlaid crosshairs on Democratic congressional districts, not the representatives themselves.

Twelve days after the editorial was published Palin sued the Times in federal court….

The Times moved to dismiss the case, and the district judge held an evidentiary hearing to decide whether the allegations of “actual malice” against the Times were plausible; the judge concluded that the allegations weren’t plausible, based on the testimony of “James Bennet, the editorial page editor at the Times and the author of the editorial”:

Bennet was the hearing’s only witness. Bennet explained  at the hearing that his reference to Palin in the editorial was intended to make a rhetorical point about the present atmosphere of political anger. He also recounted the editorial’s research and publication process and answered inquiries about his prior knowledge of the Loughner shooting six years earlier and any connection to Palin. Bennet testified that he was unaware of any of the earlier articles published by the Times, or by The Atlantic (where he had previously been the editor‐in‐chief), that indicated that no connection between Palin or her political action committee and Loughner had ever been established. In addition to answering questions from the Times’ counsel, Bennet responded to questions by Palin’s counsel and the district judge.

No, said the court of appeals: Among other things, the district judge’s decision “relied on credibility determinations not permissible at any stage before trial.” And the court of appeals held that Palin’s proposed amended complaint sufficiently alleged knowledge of falsity or likely falsity on Bennet’s part:

The [Complaint] alleges that, from 2006 to 2016, Bennet was the editor‐in‐chief of The Atlantic, where “he was responsible for the content of, reviewed, edited and approved the publication of numerous articles confirming there was no link between Mrs. Palin and Loughner’s shooting.” The complaint references several articles about the Loughner shooting published by The Atlantic during Bennet’s tenure, the most notable of which is entitled “Ten Days That Defined 2011.” The part of that article discussing the Loughner shooting reads: “… the bad thing to come out of this already terrible story was a round of blame hurling, with people rushing to point at Sarah Palin’s infamous target map …. In truth, Loughner is clinically insane and this was not really about politics at all.”

At the hearing, Bennet stated that he could not recall reading those articles, and even if he had read them, he did not have them in mind when he published the editorial. The district court, in rejecting Palin’s theory as implausible, credited this testimony as truthful when it found that Bennet’s failure to read the articles was simply a research failure that did not rise to the level of actual malice.

By crediting Bennet’s testimony, the district court rejected a permissible inference from the articles: that one who had risen to editor‐in‐chief at The Atlantic knew their content and thus that there was no connection between Palin and the Loughner shooting. That Palin’s complaint sufficiently alleges that Bennet’s opportunity to  know the journalistic consensus that the connection was lacking gives rise to the inference that he actually did know.

The [Complaint] also includes allegations suggesting that Bennet in particular was more likely than the average editor‐in‐chief to know the truth about the Loughner shooting because he had reason to be personally hostile toward Palin, her political party, and her pro‐gun stance. Bennet’s brother, a Democrat, had served as a United States Senator for Colorado since 2009. In 2010, Senator Bennet was endorsed by two House members whose districts had been targeted by the SarahPAC map. Two days before the Loughner shooting, a man threatened to open fire on Senator Bennet’s offices, and thereafter both Bennet brothers became “outspoken advocate[s] for gun control.” Also, during the 2016 election, Palin endorsed Senator Bennet’s  opponent  and  Representative  Giffords  endorsed Senator Bennet.

The district court gave no weight to these allegations, finding that political opposition did not rise to the level of actual malice. We agree with the district court that political opposition alone does not constitute actual malice, but we conclude that these allegations could indicate  more  than  sheer  political  bias—they  arguably  show that Bennet  had  a  personal  connection  to  a  potential  shooting  that animated  his  hostility  to  pro‐gun  positions  at  the  time  of  the Loughner shooting in 2011. Palin’s allegations are relevant to the credibility of Bennet’s testimony that he was unaware of facts  published on his watch relating to the Loughner shooting and that he made a mistake when he connected Palin to the that shooting. Palin’s allegations present a plausible inference that Bennet’s claim of memory loss is untrue.

At a minimum, these allegations give rise to a plausible inference that Bennet was reckless when he published the editorial without reacquainting himself with the contrary articles published in The  Atlantic  six  years  earlier.  And  that  plausible  inference  of recklessness is strengthened when added to Palin’s allegations that Bennet had reason to be personally biased against Palin and pro‐gun positions in general. When properly viewed in the plaintiff’s favor, a reasonable factfinder could conclude this amounted to more than a mistake due to a research failure.

Second, the PAC also alleges that certain aspects of the drafting and publication process of the editorial at The New York Times permits an inference of actual malice. Elizabeth Williamson, the editorial writer who drafted the initial version of the editorial, had hyperlinked in her draft an article entitled “Sarah Palin’s ‘Crosshairs’ Ad Dominates Gabrielle Giffords Debate.” The article stated, contrary to the claim in the published editorial, that “[n]o connection” was made between the SarahPAC map and Loughner. The link was also included in the final version of the editorial, a version that Bennet essentially rewrote. The Times argues that the hyperlink shows the absence of malice. But  the PAC alleges that, by including a hyperlink that contradicted the argument of his editorial, Bennet “willfully disregarded the truth.”

The district court, siding with the Times, concluded that including the hyperlinked article was further evidence of simple mistake. After crediting Bennet’s testimony that he did not read the hyperlinked article, the district judge concluded that a mistake was the only plausible explanation. But the inclusion of the hyperlinked article gives rise to more than one plausible inference, and any inference to be drawn from the inclusion of the hyperlinked article was for the jury—not the court. In any event, under these circumstances, it was arguably reckless for Bennet to hyperlink an article that he did not read.

Third, the district court concluded that the correction swiftly issued by the Times again demonstrated that the only plausible explanation for the erroneous statements was a mistake. Yet, it is also plausible that the correction was issued after a calculus that standing by the editorial was not worth the cost of the public backlash. Bennet could have published the editorial knowing—or recklessly disregarding—the falsity of the claim, and then decided later that the false allegation was not worth defending.

At bottom, it is plain from the record that the district court found Bennet a credible witness, and that the district court’s crediting his testimony impermissibly anchored the district court’s own negative view of the plausibility of Palin’s allegations.

The district court at one point stated that Bennet’s “behavior is much more plausibly consistent with making an unintended mistake and then correcting it than with acting with actual malice.” Perhaps so, but it is not the district court’s province to dismiss a plausible complaint because it is not as plausible as the defendant’s theory. The test  is  whether  the  complaint  is  plausible,  not  whether  it  is less plausible than an alternative explanation.

The jury may ultimately agree with the district court’s conclusion that Bennet was  credible— but it is the jury that must decide. Therefore, at the pleading stage, we are satisfied that Palin has met her burden to plead facts giving rise to the plausible inference that Bennet published the allegedly defamatory editorial with actual malice. We emphasize that actual malice does not mean maliciousness or ill will; it simply means the statement was “made with knowledge that it was false or with reckless disregard of whether it was false or not.” Here, given the facts alleged, the assertion that Bennet knew the statement was false, or acted with reckless disregard as to whether the statement was false, is plausible.

The case can now go forward. Thanks to Alan Kabat for the pointer.

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Selling Drugs to Sex Workers Could Be Human Trafficking Under the Senate’s New ‘PROTECT Act’

Much of the U.S. government’s effort to “stop human trafficking” consists of defining a larger and larger subset of activity as trafficking, then cracking down on this ancillary activity. New legislation from Sen. Sherrod Brown (DOhio) would expand this territory even further. Under Brown’s bill, “using drugs or illegal substances to cause a person to engage in a commercial sex act” or in any kind of labor would be punishable under federal criminal laws related to human trafficking.

It’s certainly wrong (and should be criminal) to force drugs on someone in order to get them to do something they wouldn’t otherwise consent to, be that engaging in any sort of sex or performing any sort of work. That’s why doing so is already punishable under a range of criminal statutes.

But Brown’s bill (S. 2197) is vaguely worded enough to open up new possibilities, like charging anyone who sells drugs to a sex worker as a sex trafficker (or at least threatening them with this if they don’t cop to some lesser offense) and counting any informal trade of drugs for any sort of labor as a human trafficking offense.

Specifically, the bill amends federal criminal law to say that obtaining any work or services “by means of supplying, furnishing, or providing any drug or illegal substance to a person, including to exploit the addiction of the person or cause the person to become addicted to the drug or illegal substance,” counts as a forced labor offense. Likewise, it would be counted as sex trafficking to recruit, entice, harbor, transport, provide, obtain, advertise, patronize, or solicit someone for sex by means of “supplying, furnishing, or providing any drug or illegal substance to a person, including to exploit the addiction of the person or cause the person to become addicted to the drug or illegal substance.”

Notice that neither provision makes using exploitative or addictive means a necessary part of committing this crime; any supplying, furnishing, or providing of drugs will do.

The bill⁠—dubbed the “Protecting Rights Of Those Exploited by Coercive Trafficking (PROTECT) Act⁠—was introduced in late July and has already attracted some well-known sponsors, including Democratic Sens. Dianne Feinstein (Calif.), Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), and Richard Blumenthal (Conn.), as well as Republican Sens. John Cornyn (Texas), Rob Portman (Ohio), and Thom Tillis (N.C.).

Portman sponsored the Senate bill known as SESTA (with the others signing as co-sponsors), which would be rolled in with House bill FOSTA to make facilitating prostitution through the web a federal crime. Like the SESTA/FOSTA package, the new bill would further expand the reach of federal prosecutors—just in time for the new “human trafficking coordinators” that are being installed at U.S. attorney’s offices across the country. (That was also a Sen. Brown contribution. I guess now he has to give them something to do.)

In essence, the PROTECT Act would take two things that are already illegal on their own (selling illegal drugs and forcing people into sex or labor) and make them⁠—ostensibly⁠—more illegal together. This follows a trend seen with drug laws during times of panic. But what we’ve seen with the enhanced drug laws, and with laws criminalizing activity around sex work, is not police using them to bring to justice some previously untouchable or under-punished class of serious criminals. Rather, these laws work as threats in coercive plea deals and are often used against sex workers or drug users themselves.

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Selling Drugs to Sex Workers Could Be Human Trafficking Under the Senate’s New ‘PROTECT Act’

Much of the U.S. government’s effort to “stop human trafficking” consists of defining a larger and larger subset of activity as trafficking, then cracking down on this ancillary activity. New legislation from Sen. Sherrod Brown (DOhio) would expand this territory even further. Under Brown’s bill, “using drugs or illegal substances to cause a person to engage in a commercial sex act” or in any kind of labor would be punishable under federal criminal laws related to human trafficking.

It’s certainly wrong (and should be criminal) to force drugs on someone in order to get them to do something they wouldn’t otherwise consent to, be that engaging in any sort of sex or performing any sort of work. That’s why doing so is already punishable under a range of criminal statutes.

But Brown’s bill (S. 2197) is vaguely worded enough to open up new possibilities, like charging anyone who sells drugs to a sex worker as a sex trafficker (or at least threatening them with this if they don’t cop to some lesser offense) and counting any informal trade of drugs for any sort of labor as a human trafficking offense.

Specifically, the bill amends federal criminal law to say that obtaining any work or services “by means of supplying, furnishing, or providing any drug or illegal substance to a person, including to exploit the addiction of the person or cause the person to become addicted to the drug or illegal substance,” counts as a forced labor offense. Likewise, it would be counted as sex trafficking to recruit, entice, harbor, transport, provide, obtain, advertise, patronize, or solicit someone for sex by means of “supplying, furnishing, or providing any drug or illegal substance to a person, including to exploit the addiction of the person or cause the person to become addicted to the drug or illegal substance.”

Notice that neither provision makes using exploitative or addictive means a necessary part of committing this crime; any supplying, furnishing, or providing of drugs will do.

The bill⁠—dubbed the “Protecting Rights Of Those Exploited by Coercive Trafficking (PROTECT) Act⁠—was introduced in late July and has already attracted some well-known sponsors, including Democratic Sens. Dianne Feinstein (Calif.), Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), and Richard Blumenthal (Conn.), as well as Republican Sens. John Cornyn (Texas), Rob Portman (Ohio), and Thom Tillis (N.C.).

Portman sponsored the Senate bill known as SESTA (with the others signing as co-sponsors), which would be rolled in with House bill FOSTA to make facilitating prostitution through the web a federal crime. Like the SESTA/FOSTA package, the new bill would further expand the reach of federal prosecutors—just in time for the new “human trafficking coordinators” that are being installed at U.S. attorney’s offices across the country. (That was also a Sen. Brown contribution. I guess now he has to give them something to do.)

In essence, the PROTECT Act would take two things that are already illegal on their own (selling illegal drugs and forcing people into sex or labor) and make them⁠—ostensibly⁠—more illegal together. This follows a trend seen with drug laws during times of panic. But what we’ve seen with the enhanced drug laws, and with laws criminalizing activity around sex work, is not police using them to bring to justice some previously untouchable or under-punished class of serious criminals. Rather, these laws work as threats in coercive plea deals and are often used against sex workers or drug users themselves.

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The Escalating Trade War Is Bad News for Pretty Much Everyone

Tensions rose and stocks fell on Monday as the trade war between the U.S. and China escalated to a dangerous new level.

There have been three major developments in the past week—all of which have moved the two sides farther apart, marking a clear end to what had been a months-long truce and stoking fears of a recession if two of the world’s largest markets can’t work out their problems. On Thursday, President Donald Trump announced a new round of tariffs hitting about $300 billion of un-tariffed imports from China. China responded on Sunday by announcing that it would cut off all purchases of agricultural goods from the United States. On Monday evening, the U.S. responded again by officially labeling China a “currency manipulator”—a move that expands the trade war into a new arena.

That series of events sent markets (and market-watchers) into red alert. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its sixth-worst single-day points loss on Monday (though the Dow regained about 170 points within the first half hour of trading on Tuesday). The Dow is down 6 percent since July 15—and the market has now fallen below the level it was at when Trump launched his trade war in early 2018.

Another ominous indicator for a president who has tied his administration’s success to the stock market’s performance: The yield on 10-year bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury, a safe harbor for investors fleeing turbulent markets, has now fallen below its level on the day Trump was elected. (Unlike stocks, bond prices fall when they are in greater demand.)

Worse could be coming. In an economic analysis, investment bank Goldman Sachs said “we no longer expect a trade deal before the 2020 election” in light of recent developments, starting with Trump’s announcement of additional tariffs last week. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said Monday’s developments put the U.S. in “the most dangerous financial moment since the 2009 Financial Crisis.” And analysts from Morgan Stanley, another investment bank, fretted that a global recession could be less than a year away.

While none of the actions taken in the past few days have been immediately damaging to either country—the threatened tariffs won’t hit until September, and the “currency manipulator” label is mostly a symbolic thing—the reaction is a good reminder that trade wars are psychological events as much as anything. Investors and markets are clearly rattled at the moment, as hope for a quick resolution of the fight between the world’s two biggest economies appears to be fading.

“It’s never been more clear that tariffs are a failing strategy,” says Jonathan Gold, spokesman for Tariffs Hurt The Heartland, a coalition of more than 150 trade associations that oppose the president’s trade policies. “Behind today’s market turmoil are real Americans who have been used as bargaining chips in this trade war.”

“Both sides need to return to the negotiating table immediately,” cautions Gold. “Nobody wins in a trade war, and right now, everyone is losing.”

Farmers, again, could be hit the hardest. China’s decision to cut off all agricultural purchases from the United States means the complete loss of a $20 billion export market. There is not enough welfare or bailouts that can make up for that.

The immediate loss of China as an export market is bad enough, but there’s also little prospect for restoration. As I’ve written before, one of the main casualties in a trade war is trust—something that is also essential for two economic rivals to reach a trade deal. Now? China “no longer expects goodwill from the United States,” tweeted Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a Chinese newspaper published by Chinese Communist Party. Does that sound like a government ready to make a deal?

It’s hard to imagine how any of this is good news for Trump. News coverage this week has focused on a mass shooting where the killer namechecked Trump in his “manifesto” and on a massive drop in the stock market brought on by the president’s trade war—a conflict Trump promised would be “good and easy to win” at its outset.

As the trade war escalates to a new level, that claim looks more ridiculous than ever before.

“We’re learning that maybe China has a higher pain threshold than we thought here,” Stephen Moore, Trump’s economic advisor during the 2016 election and a close (though unofficial) advisor to the president, told The Washington Post.  “It’s kind of a mutually assured destruction game right now.”

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The Escalating Trade War Is Bad News for Pretty Much Everyone

Tensions rose and stocks fell on Monday as the trade war between the U.S. and China escalated to a dangerous new level.

There have been three major developments in the past week—all of which have moved the two sides farther apart, marking a clear end to what had been a months-long truce and stoking fears of a recession if two of the world’s largest markets can’t work out their problems. On Thursday, President Donald Trump announced a new round of tariffs hitting about $300 billion of un-tariffed imports from China. China responded on Sunday by announcing that it would cut off all purchases of agricultural goods from the United States. On Monday evening, the U.S. responded again by officially labeling China a “currency manipulator”—a move that expands the trade war into a new arena.

That series of events sent markets (and market-watchers) into red alert. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its sixth-worst single-day points loss on Monday (though the Dow regained about 170 points within the first half hour of trading on Tuesday). The Dow is down 6 percent since July 15—and the market has now fallen below the level it was at when Trump launched his trade war in early 2018.

Another ominous indicator for a president who has tied his administration’s success to the stock market’s performance: The yield on 10-year bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury, a safe harbor for investors fleeing turbulent markets, has now fallen below its level on the day Trump was elected. (Unlike stocks, bond prices fall when they are in greater demand.)

Worse could be coming. In an economic analysis, investment bank Goldman Sachs said “we no longer expect a trade deal before the 2020 election” in light of recent developments, starting with Trump’s announcement of additional tariffs last week. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said Monday’s developments put the U.S. in “the most dangerous financial moment since the 2009 Financial Crisis.” And analysts from Morgan Stanley, another investment bank, fretted that a global recession could be less than a year away.

While none of the actions taken in the past few days have been immediately damaging to either country—the threatened tariffs won’t hit until September, and the “currency manipulator” label is mostly a symbolic thing—the reaction is a good reminder that trade wars are psychological events as much as anything. Investors and markets are clearly rattled at the moment, as hope for a quick resolution of the fight between the world’s two biggest economies appears to be fading.

“It’s never been more clear that tariffs are a failing strategy,” says Jonathan Gold, spokesman for Tariffs Hurt The Heartland, a coalition of more than 150 trade associations that oppose the president’s trade policies. “Behind today’s market turmoil are real Americans who have been used as bargaining chips in this trade war.”

“Both sides need to return to the negotiating table immediately,” cautions Gold. “Nobody wins in a trade war, and right now, everyone is losing.”

Farmers, again, could be hit the hardest. China’s decision to cut off all agricultural purchases from the United States means the complete loss of a $20 billion export market. There is not enough welfare or bailouts that can make up for that.

The immediate loss of China as an export market is bad enough, but there’s also little prospect for restoration. As I’ve written before, one of the main casualties in a trade war is trust—something that is also essential for two economic rivals to reach a trade deal. Now? China “no longer expects goodwill from the United States,” tweeted Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a Chinese newspaper published by Chinese Communist Party. Does that sound like a government ready to make a deal?

It’s hard to imagine how any of this is good news for Trump. News coverage this week has focused on a mass shooting where the killer namechecked Trump in his “manifesto” and on a massive drop in the stock market brought on by the president’s trade war—a conflict Trump promised would be “good and easy to win” at its outset.

As the trade war escalates to a new level, that claim looks more ridiculous than ever before.

“We’re learning that maybe China has a higher pain threshold than we thought here,” Stephen Moore, Trump’s economic advisor during the 2016 election and a close (though unofficial) advisor to the president, told The Washington Post.  “It’s kind of a mutually assured destruction game right now.”

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Trump Says Mental Illness ‘Pulls the Trigger’ in Mass Shootings

We’ve moved on to the phase of a post-shooting news cycle where folks come together to agree that mental illness is the real problem. “Mental illness and hatred pulls the trigger, not the gun,” said President Donald Trump on Monday. Meanwhile, Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal (Conn.) and Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) set to work on re-introducing a bill concerning mental illness and law enforcement.

On one level, addressing mental health in the wake of mass shootings is better than blaming video games, internet forums, or immigration policy for violence. But because this is government we’re talking about, the idea that random people can snap and do crazy, terrible things isn’t enough. If mental illness is the problem, we need to do! something! big! about mental illness.

Of course, what we do is never remove the regulatory barriers to better, more widespread mental health care. Instead, we subject any and all people with “mental illness”—a category that can range from complete psychosis and other extreme conditions to conditions like depression and anxiety that are shared by tons of Americans—to increased monitoring, restrictions, and stigmatizing presumptions. Frequently, it also involves subjecting everyone to increased surveillance in order to allegedly spot signs of dangerous mental illness.

AdAge notes that “President Donald Trump said he ordered federal officials to work with the companies to try and identify people whose social-media postings indicate they may commit mass murder before they act. While Trump did not call for any specific regulations, the companies have been facing increasing scrutiny over how they police the content users post online and their power to influence public discourse.”

When Trump was talking about recent mass shootings, he kept coming back to mental illness, noted Jonathan Chait, suggesting that “mental illness is the concept Republicans have grasped onto to absolve Trump and his allies of any ideological kinship with white nationalist terrorists. ‘Crazy’ is a kind of metaphysical demarcation between conservatism and terrorism.”

Graham and Blumenthal’s bill would give more money to police departments to “hire and consult with mental health professionals,” Graham said in a statement. It would also strengthen red flag laws, which allow police and courts to temporarily suspend people’s ability to purchase guns. Graham and Blumenthal previously introduced a similar bill in March 2018.


FREE MINDS

Flights in and out of Hong Kong are being stalled and canceled as protests continue to roil the city. How are things going? A short selection of recent headlines should give you the picture:

  • “Hong Kong Strike Sinks City Into Chaos, and Government Has Little Reply” (The New York Times)
  • “China’s Xi Has Few Good Options to End the Chaos in Hong Kong” (Bloomberg)
  • “‘Prepared to Die’: Hong Kong Protesters Embrace Hard-Core Tactics, Challenge Beijing” (The Wall Street Journal)
  • “In Hong Kong, It’s Now a Revolution” (The National Interest)

FREE MARKETS

Monday market swings spark freakout. In the past week, President Trump announced more major tariffs on Chinese goods, the Chinese government elected to let its currency value relative to the dollar drop, and the U.S. responded by officially designating China as a currency manipulator. And just like that, stock and bond markets both dropped enough to cause alarm.

“The swings in financial markets Monday are hard to justify in narrow terms,” writes Neil Irwin at The New York Times. “A slightly cheaper Chinese currency shouldn’t have huge consequences for the global economy. Rather, investors are coming to grips with the reality that the trade war is escalating and spreading into the global currency market.” Irwin suggests that this may be the start of a feared point of no return in the U.S.-China trade war that could “create dangerous ripple effects for the world economy.”

Meanwhile, in Trumpland:


QUICK HITS

  • Rethinking paper straws? McDonald’s in the U.K. shifted to paper straws as part of the popular tilt away from their plastic counterparts. The company called it part of its plans to help “protect the environment.” The plastic straws were recyclable. The paper ones are not.
  • Awkward…

  • A San Diego police sergeant facing arrest for soliciting sex from a minor has apparently committed suicide.
  • Singer R. Kelly, who was recently arrested on federal criminal charges, was also just charged in Minnesota with soliciting sex from a minor.
  • Who could have predicted?

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Trump Says Mental Illness ‘Pulls the Trigger’ in Mass Shootings

We’ve moved on to the phase of a post-shooting news cycle where folks come together to agree that mental illness is the real problem. “Mental illness and hatred pulls the trigger, not the gun,” said President Donald Trump on Monday. Meanwhile, Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal (Conn.) and Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) set to work on re-introducing a bill concerning mental illness and law enforcement.

On one level, addressing mental health in the wake of mass shootings is better than blaming video games, internet forums, or immigration policy for violence. But because this is government we’re talking about, the idea that random people can snap and do crazy, terrible things isn’t enough. If mental illness is the problem, we need to do! something! big! about mental illness.

Of course, what we do is never remove the regulatory barriers to better, more widespread mental health care. Instead, we subject any and all people with “mental illness”—a category that can range from complete psychosis and other extreme conditions to conditions like depression and anxiety that are shared by tons of Americans—to increased monitoring, restrictions, and stigmatizing presumptions. Frequently, it also involves subjecting everyone to increased surveillance in order to allegedly spot signs of dangerous mental illness.

AdAge notes that “President Donald Trump said he ordered federal officials to work with the companies to try and identify people whose social-media postings indicate they may commit mass murder before they act. While Trump did not call for any specific regulations, the companies have been facing increasing scrutiny over how they police the content users post online and their power to influence public discourse.”

When Trump was talking about recent mass shootings, he kept coming back to mental illness, noted Jonathan Chait, suggesting that “mental illness is the concept Republicans have grasped onto to absolve Trump and his allies of any ideological kinship with white nationalist terrorists. ‘Crazy’ is a kind of metaphysical demarcation between conservatism and terrorism.”

Graham and Blumenthal’s bill would give more money to police departments to “hire and consult with mental health professionals,” Graham said in a statement. It would also strengthen red flag laws, which allow police and courts to temporarily suspend people’s ability to purchase guns. Graham and Blumenthal previously introduced a similar bill in March 2018.


FREE MINDS

Flights in and out of Hong Kong are being stalled and canceled as protests continue to roil the city. How are things going? A short selection of recent headlines should give you the picture:

  • “Hong Kong Strike Sinks City Into Chaos, and Government Has Little Reply” (The New York Times)
  • “China’s Xi Has Few Good Options to End the Chaos in Hong Kong” (Bloomberg)
  • “‘Prepared to Die’: Hong Kong Protesters Embrace Hard-Core Tactics, Challenge Beijing” (The Wall Street Journal)
  • “In Hong Kong, It’s Now a Revolution” (The National Interest)

FREE MARKETS

Monday market swings spark freakout. In the past week, President Trump announced more major tariffs on Chinese goods, the Chinese government elected to let its currency value relative to the dollar drop, and the U.S. responded by officially designating China as a currency manipulator. And just like that, stock and bond markets both dropped enough to cause alarm.

“The swings in financial markets Monday are hard to justify in narrow terms,” writes Neil Irwin at The New York Times. “A slightly cheaper Chinese currency shouldn’t have huge consequences for the global economy. Rather, investors are coming to grips with the reality that the trade war is escalating and spreading into the global currency market.” Irwin suggests that this may be the start of a feared point of no return in the U.S.-China trade war that could “create dangerous ripple effects for the world economy.”

Meanwhile, in Trumpland:


QUICK HITS

  • Rethinking paper straws? McDonald’s in the U.K. shifted to paper straws as part of the popular tilt away from their plastic counterparts. The company called it part of its plans to help “protect the environment.” The plastic straws were recyclable. The paper ones are not.
  • Awkward…

  • A San Diego police sergeant facing arrest for soliciting sex from a minor has apparently committed suicide.
  • Singer R. Kelly, who was recently arrested on federal criminal charges, was also just charged in Minnesota with soliciting sex from a minor.
  • Who could have predicted?

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via IFTTT