Watch Live: Biden Team Delivers Post-Election Update As Vote Count Continues

Watch Live: Biden Team Delivers Post-Election Update As Vote Count Continues

Tyler Durden

Wed, 11/04/2020 – 10:01

With two key swing-state races yet to be called, Democrats’ hopes for a ‘blue wave’ in the Senate crashed on Tuesday as it quickly became clear that they wouldn’t manage to flip enough seats to challenge the Republican majority. Even more alarming, the GOP appears to have picked up 10 seats in the House, eroding the Democrats’ majority.

Now that Maine’s 4 electoral votes have been counted for Joe Biden, eight states, including the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have yet to be decided. Yet, President Trump’s stronger than expected showing definitely has the Biden team on the ropes. Hours after the former VP tweeted that he and his team were still confident that they won the election, team Biden is preparing to make a statement from Wilmington.

Watch live below:

Meanwhile team Trump is holding a phone briefing with reporters that was slated to start at 0955ET.

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25 Lessons Democrats Will Take From Their Horrible 2020 Performance

25 Lessons Democrats Will Take From Their Horrible 2020 Performance

Tyler Durden

Wed, 11/04/2020 – 09:51

Authored by Caitlin Johnstone,

Democrats have shocked the world by managing to spectacularly under-perform against a president who has failed the nation by virtually every metric after years of mass media stories claiming he is literally a secret agent for a hostile foreign government.

As of this writing the election is still too close to call, and Trump could still end up winning. This should never have been close, and it should prompt some serious soul-searching for the party. Obviously some drastic changes need to be made, because what they are doing clearly is not working.

So with that in mind, here are the key lessons we can expect Democrats to take away from their terrible 2020 performance:

1. RUSSIA!!!!

2. RUSSIA!!!!

3. Should have run a more right wing candidate.

4. RUSSIA!!!!

5. Should have given more money to the Lincoln Project.

6. This is still Susan Sarandon’s fault.

7. Get Pelosi to say “Wakanda forever!” at the next State of the Union address.

8. Bernie Sanders: secretly Russian?? Demand investigation by Special Counsel.

9. Demand more internet censorship. Threaten antitrust cases if necessary.

10. RUSSIA!!!!

11. Was there a Green Party candidate this year? Find out. If yes, they’re Russian.

12. Get the Krassenstein brothers their own MSNBC show.

13. Breast hats.

14. Kente cloth surrender flag.

15. Re-appoint Debbie Wasserman-Schultz to DNC chair.

16. IRAN!!!! (plot twist!)

17. Spend more time on Twitter yelling at leftists for being too far left.

18. Get Steve Bannon to join the #Resistance.

19. Promise voters if they start supporting Democrats they’ll be rewarded with economic sanctions on geostrategically valuable nations on the other side of the world.

20. Try doing literally nothing and see if that helps.

21. Try giving Trump everything he wants and see if that helps.

22. Get wealthy celebrities to shame voters.

23. See if Ted Cruz will run as a Dem in 2024.

24. Find out what “QAnon” is, then see if maybe we can do something similar.

25. RUSSIA!!!!

*  *  *

Thanks for reading! The best way to get around the internet censors and make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for at my website or on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, liking me on Facebook, following my antics on Twitter, throwing some money into my tip jar on Patreon or Paypal, purchasing some of my sweet merchandise, buying my books Rogue Nation: Psychonautical Adventures With Caitlin Johnstone and Woke: A Field Guide for Utopia Preppers. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge.

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On Election Night, the Real Winner Was Drugs

westendrf517079

Drugs are winning the war on drugs. It’s the morning after the 2020 election, and the result everyone is waiting for—will Donald Trump best Joe Biden, or vice versa?—is still a mystery wrapped in a clusterfuck. But there was one absolutely certain loser last night: the war on drugs. If Americans across the country provided a clear mandate for anything this year, it’s ending the hold that drug prohibition has on our country.

Of nine drug decriminalization or legalization measures on state ballots last night—including two addressing hallucinogens and one covering all illegal drugs—not a single one failed. These were decisive victories, too, not close calls. And unlike some previous waves of pro-marijuana votes, which were concentrated in predictable areas, successful anti–drug war measures in 2020 spanned a diverse array of states.

Ballot measures making marijuana legal for recreational purposes passed in three: Arizona, Montana, and New Jersey. South Dakota approved both recreational and medicinal marijuana. In addition, Mississippi voters approved a medical marijuana measure.

Measures to OK consumption of hallucinogenic mushrooms got a green light from voters in the District of Columbia and in Oregon.

And Oregonians also approved Measure 110, partially decriminalizing all illegal drugs.

These drug measures didn’t just eke out wins.

In D.C., more than three-quarters of voters approved Initiative 81, declaring “that police shall treat the non-commercial cultivation, distribution, possession, and use of entheogenic plants and fungi”—those that contain ibogaine, dimethyltryptamine, mescaline, or psilocybin—among the lowest law enforcement priorities.”

In Arizona—which rejected recreational cannabis legalization in 2016—voters were 59.85 percent in favor of legalization this year compared to 40.15 percent against.

In New Jersey, the proportion favoring legalization was even higher: 67 percent of votes were in favor, with 33 percent against.

In South Dakota, 69 percent approved the medical marijuana measure. And with 85 percent of precincts reporting, the recreational marijuana measure was up 53.4 percent to 46.5 percent.

Montana saw nearly 57 percent of voters approve recreational marijuana legalization Initiative 190.

Meanwhile, in Mississippi, voters said yes to two medical marijuana measures: one allowing it for people with terminal illnesses and one allowing it for people with “debilitating medical conditions.” The more-liberal latter option (Initiative 65) saw 74 percent of voters in favor.

Even Oregon’s measure to decriminalize non-commercial possession of all drugs saw a sizable margin of victory. Nearly 59 percent of voters approved with 80 percent of precincts reporting. And nearly 56 percent of voters approved of Measure 109, the Psilocybin Services Act, which authorizes the Oregon Health Authority to start “a program to permit licensed service providers to administer psilocybin-producing mushroom and fungi products to individuals 21 years of age or older.”


The drug measures weren’t the only encouraging sign from the 2020 election.

Lots of props go to California voters, who struck a blow to California’s disastrous anti-independent contractor law A.B. 5 by approving Proposition 22—apparently seeing through a massive campaign to convince voters that the ballot measure was an evil corporate ploy to mistreat workers. The win is a victory for rideshare and delivery drivers and the many people who use their services, as well as for companies like Uber and Lyft.

Californians also rejected measures to expand rent control and to bring back affirmative action in school admissions. They approved Proposition 17, which grants paroled felons the right to vote.

Meanwhile, an abortion banning measure in Colorado failed.

And Nebraskans legalized gambling.

If we stay out of national political races, it was a fairly decent night.


As of this morning, the contest between Biden and Trump is still far from being determined (which was to be expected)—though this hasn’t stopped Trump from nonsensically and despotically declaring victory.

“Frankly, we did win this election. As far as I’m concerned, we have already have won,” Trump said in an early morning speech. He added: “We’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court—we want all voting to stop.”

Voting has stopped, of course. (“No state will count absentee votes that are postmarked after Election Day,” notes the Associated Press.) It’s the counting that’s still taking place, and could for some time.

“Four key battleground states — Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan and Georgia—began Wednesday with tens of thousands of absentee ballots uncounted,” reports CNN this morning.”


QUICK HITS

• For the results of key Senate and House races, see here and here.

• Voters in Arizona agreed to raise taxes on the state’s high earners; voters in Illinois did not.

• Louisiana passed an amendment saying the state’s constitution does not grant a right to abortion access.

• California voters rejected a measure to end cash bail.

• Voters in Alaska rejected ranked-choice voting, as did voters in Massachusetts.

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On Election Night, the Real Winner Was Drugs

westendrf517079

Drugs are winning the war on drugs. It’s the morning after the 2020 election, and the result everyone is waiting for—will Donald Trump best Joe Biden, or vice versa?—is still a mystery wrapped in a clusterfuck. But there was one absolutely certain loser last night: the war on drugs. If Americans across the country provided a clear mandate for anything this year, it’s ending the hold that drug prohibition has on our country.

Of nine drug decriminalization or legalization measures on state ballots last night—including two addressing hallucinogens and one covering all illegal drugs—not a single one failed. These were decisive victories, too, not close calls. And unlike some previous waves of pro-marijuana votes, which were concentrated in predictable areas, successful anti–drug war measures in 2020 spanned a diverse array of states.

Ballot measures making marijuana legal for recreational purposes passed in three: Arizona, Montana, and New Jersey. South Dakota approved both recreational and medicinal marijuana. In addition, Mississippi voters approved a medical marijuana measure.

Measures to OK consumption of hallucinogenic mushrooms got a green light from voters in the District of Columbia and in Oregon.

And Oregonians also approved Measure 110, partially decriminalizing all illegal drugs.

These drug measures didn’t just eke out wins.

In D.C., more than three-quarters of voters approved Initiative 81, declaring “that police shall treat the non-commercial cultivation, distribution, possession, and use of entheogenic plants and fungi”—those that contain ibogaine, dimethyltryptamine, mescaline, or psilocybin—among the lowest law enforcement priorities.”

In Arizona—which rejected recreational cannabis legalization in 2016—voters were 59.85 percent in favor of legalization this year compared to 40.15 percent against.

In New Jersey, the proportion favoring legalization was even higher: 67 percent of votes were in favor, with 33 percent against.

In South Dakota, 69 percent approved the medical marijuana measure. And with 85 percent of precincts reporting, the recreational marijuana measure was up 53.4 percent to 46.5 percent.

Montana saw nearly 57 percent of voters approve recreational marijuana legalization Initiative 190.

Meanwhile, in Mississippi, voters said yes to two medical marijuana measures: one allowing it for people with terminal illnesses and one allowing it for people with “debilitating medical conditions.” The more-liberal latter option (Initiative 65) saw 74 percent of voters in favor.

Even Oregon’s measure to decriminalize non-commercial possession of all drugs saw a sizable margin of victory. Nearly 59 percent of voters approved with 80 percent of precincts reporting. And nearly 56 percent of voters approved of Measure 109, the Psilocybin Services Act, which authorizes the Oregon Health Authority to start “a program to permit licensed service providers to administer psilocybin-producing mushroom and fungi products to individuals 21 years of age or older.”


The drug measures weren’t the only encouraging sign from the 2020 election.

Lots of props go to California voters, who struck a blow to California’s disastrous anti-independent contractor law A.B. 5 by approving Proposition 22—apparently seeing through a massive campaign to convince voters that the ballot measure was an evil corporate ploy to mistreat workers. The win is a victory for rideshare and delivery drivers and the many people who use their services, as well as for companies like Uber and Lyft.

Californians also rejected measures to expand rent control and to bring back affirmative action in school admissions. They approved Proposition 17, which grants paroled felons the right to vote.

Meanwhile, an abortion banning measure in Colorado failed.

And Nebraskans legalized gambling.

If we stay out of national political races, it was a fairly decent night.


As of this morning, the contest between Biden and Trump is still far from being determined (which was to be expected)—though this hasn’t stopped Trump from nonsensically and despotically declaring victory.

“Frankly, we did win this election. As far as I’m concerned, we have already have won,” Trump said in an early morning speech. He added: “We’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court—we want all voting to stop.”

Voting has stopped, of course. (“No state will count absentee votes that are postmarked after Election Day,” notes the Associated Press.) It’s the counting that’s still taking place, and could for some time.

“Four key battleground states — Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan and Georgia—began Wednesday with tens of thousands of absentee ballots uncounted,” reports CNN this morning.”


QUICK HITS

• For the results of key Senate and House races, see here and here.

• Voters in Arizona agreed to raise taxes on the state’s high earners; voters in Illinois did not.

• Louisiana passed an amendment saying the state’s constitution does not grant a right to abortion access.

• California voters rejected a measure to end cash bail.

• Voters in Alaska rejected ranked-choice voting, as did voters in Massachusetts.

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Treasury Announces A Record $122BN Refunding Debt Sale

Treasury Announces A Record $122BN Refunding Debt Sale

Tyler Durden

Wed, 11/04/2020 – 09:30

While it will get zero notice in today’s post-election chaos, at 830am, the Treasury issued its quarterly refunding announcement in which it said it will raise its long-term refunding debt sales next week to a fresh record $122 billion, to refund approximately $60.9 billion of Treasury notes maturing on November 15, 2020. 

This issuance will raise new cash of approximately $61.1 billion.  Here are the details:

  • Treasury to sell a 3-year note for $54 billion on Nov 9, up from $52 billion in October.
  • Treasury to sell a 10-year note for $41 billion on Nov 11, up from $38 billion last quarter.
  • Treasury to sell a 30-year bond for $27 billion, up from $26 billion last quarter.

The total combined sales of a record $122BN for the three maturities compares to $112BN last quarter. As a reminder, the Treasury had nudged up 3-year sales by $2b already in Sept. and Oct.

It’s all uphill from there: over the next three months, Treasury anticipates increasing the sizes of the 2-, 3-, and 5-year note auctions by $2 billion per month.  As a result, the size of 2-, 3-, and 5-year note auctions will each increase by $6 billion by the end of January 2021.  Treasury also anticipates increasing the size of 7-year note auction by $3 billion per month over the next three months.  As a result, the size of the 7-year note auction will increase by $9 billion by the end of January 2021.

The Treasury also announced increases of $3 billion to both the new and reopened 10-year note auction sizes, and increases of $1 billion to both the new and reopened 30-year bond auction sizes starting in November.

Meanwhile, with demand for the 20-year nominal bond introduced in May remaining robust and the product enjoying broad support from market participants, the Treasury is also announcing increases of $2 billion to both the new and reopened 20-year bond auction sizes starting in November.

In addition, following the $2 billion increase in the October new-issue FRN auction size, Treasury will increase the November and December FRN reopening sizes by $2 billion (resulting in a $24 billion auction size for each).  Treasury anticipates increasing the size of the next new-issue 2-year FRN auction in January by $2 billion to $28 billion.

The table below presents the anticipated auction sizes (in $ billion) for the upcoming November 2020 through January 2021 quarter:

Additionally, the changes in nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes announced today will result in an additional $105 billion of issuance to private investors during the November-January quarter compared to the August-October quarter.

With respect to the record high cash balance projections, the Treasury said that consistent with its guidance in the August refunding statement, it “continues to take a precautionary, risk-management driven approach by maintaining large cash balances in light of the unprecedented size and ongoing uncertainty regarding COVID-19 related outlays.” It also said that while it “expects its cash balance to decline over the upcoming quarter, the extent of the decline will depend on several uncertain factors, including the pace of outflows under current law and the potential for additional legislation.”

On its projections for Bill Financing, the Treasury will continue to supplement its regular benchmark bill financing with a regular cadence of CMBs. Treasury anticipates that weekly issuance of 6- and 17-week CMBs for Thursday settlement and maturity, as well as 15- and 22-week CMBs for Tuesday settlement and maturity will continue at least through the end of January. These CMBs will be announced as part of the regular Tuesday and Thursday bill announcement cycle. These CMBs provide substantial financing flexibility considering the uncertainty of borrowing needs Treasury faces.  The Treasury will also continue to evaluate the fiscal outlook and assess the need to make adjustments to auction sizes at the next quarterly refunding announcement.

Finally, the Treasury said that no decision has been made by Treasury regarding potential issuance of an FRN linked to SOFR (or the Secured Overnight Financing Rate). However, Treasury said it “continues to actively explore the possibility of issuing such a product and will provide ample notice to market participants if it chooses to move forward.”

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DC Police Confirm Stabbing Attack On 4 Trump Supporters Near White House

DC Police Confirm Stabbing Attack On 4 Trump Supporters Near White House

Tyler Durden

Wed, 11/04/2020 – 09:28

Despite protests gathered in front of the White House through the night amid this worst case scenario of very delayed election results, there’s so far not been the predicted widespread unrest as American waits. But the longer the situation extends the more there’s potential for mayhem. 

Overnight Washington DC police confirmed a stabbing incident targeting what appears to be Trump supporters who had been gathered near the White House. The local NBC affiliate reports based on police statements and eyewitness accounts:

A woman and three men were stabbed blocks from the White House early Wednesday morning following election night, D.C. police say.

D.C. police say the victims identified themselves as members of a far-right group that supports President Donald Trump, the Proud Boys. The victims claimed the suspects were part of Black Lives Matter protests. News4 was not immediately able to confirm those claims. No arrests have been made.

The police are said to be searching for the suspects, who have yet to be apprehended.

“Two of the suspects were described as black males wearing all black clothing. The third was a black female wearing black sweatpants with a white stripe, orange leggings and a dark gray coat,” the NBC report continues.

According to The Daily Mail:

Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio told the Gateway Pundit that he was slashed in the stomach while fellow member Bevelyn Beatty was stabbed in the back

Tarrio claimed that his group was attacked after they stepped in to help another older man who was being assaulted. 

Tarrio claimed he and his group were “jumped by Black Lives Matter” protesters.

Livestream video from the incident, also republished in the New York Post, appears to have caught part of the altercation:

One shocked eyewitness could be heard in the video saying:

“Oh my god you’ve got tons of blood coming out of your neck!”

Meanwhile a local Black Lives Matter organization has slammed media reports linking the group to the violent attack.

Local media affiliates said they are working to confirm the details of the account, which haven’t been verified.

The Daily Mail describes this was the scene outside the pub near where the stabbing occurred. Proud Boys were gathered there. One man’s shirt says ‘Stand Back and Stand By’. 

“We were helping some guy that was getting stabbed by two black males and one female,” Tarrio was quoted in Daily Mail as saying.

“Bevelyn got stabbed as well as two Proud Boys and the guy they were attacking. I got slashed, but it’s not serious. We were walking to our cars.”

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California Voters Reject Race, Sex, Ethnic Preferences in Government Employment, Education, and Contracting

In 1996, California voters passed Prop. 209, which generally banned race, sex, and ethnic preferences in government employment, education, and contracting, by a 54½-45½% vote. That year, the California Assembly was nearly divided (switching from 41-39 Republican to 43-37 Democrat); the Senate went 23-16 Democrat; Republican Pete Wilson had been reelected governor the year before.

In 2020, the California Assembly is more than ¾ Democrat; the Senate is almost ¾ Democrat; the Governor has been a Democrat for nearly 10 years; it has close to the highest percentage of Biden votes among all the states. The Legislature had put an attempt to repeal the preferences ban on the ballot (as Prop. 16), and the attempt got a massive array of endorsements from political and business leaders. The Yes on Prop. 16 forces outfundraised the No by more than 15 to 1 ($27 million to $1.6 million). But Prop. 16 has just failed, apparently by 56-44%.

Even Deep Blue California doesn’t think that race, sex, or ethnicity should generally be factors in allotting places at public universities, jobs in state and local government, or government contracts—whether under the rubric of “diversity” or “affirmative action” or whatever else. And this is so in a year when much elite opinion was endorsing notions of “anti-racism” that expressly call for a massive return to racial preferences.

California, besides being Deep Blue, is also less white (and especially less non-Hispanic white) than ever before. Yet according to the latest pre-election poll (the Berkeley IGS Poll), many nonwhites as well as whites oppose these preferences.

The no-preferences side had an 18% lead among non-Hispanic whites, an 11% lead among Asians, and a 2% lead among Hispanics (basically a tie); and while the no-preferences side was losing by 25% among blacks, that still means 33% of blacks were on the no-preferences side. Indeed, nationwide, according to FiveThirtyEight.com, 51% of blacks oppose the view that “preferential hiring and promotion of Black people should be allowed.” (We don’t have the estimated demographic breakdown of the vote from the actual election, but the Berkeley IGS Poll margin in favor of the No side was 11 points, at 49%-38%, close to the 12 points by which the proposition seems to be winning.)

Now I was a legal advisor to the 1996 Prop. 209, and helped draft it, and I also helped slightly with the opposition to Prop. 16; I’m not an impartial observer here. And of course this is one election in one state.

Still, I think the message is pretty solid, and likely to carry the day in more moderate and conservative states as well: The public wants solutions to America’s racial problems that don’t further classify people by race, and divide people by race.

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Blue Wave Crashes: Democrats’ Hopes For Senate Majority Fizzle; House Margin Eroded

Blue Wave Crashes: Democrats’ Hopes For Senate Majority Fizzle; House Margin Eroded

Tyler Durden

Wed, 11/04/2020 – 09:09

What ‘Blue Wave’?

While 9 states are still waiting on final vote counts in the presidential race, it’s already clear that Tuesday was not the blowout Democratic victory that Nate Silver and a legion of other idiot pundits had expected.

Joni Ernst

Despite the legion of celebrities and models urging their followers to ‘get out and vote’ by posting selfies with their ‘I voted’ stickers and/or (in one notorious campaign) posing nude for risque adverts (oh to have been a fly on the wall during that pitch meeting), all the ‘vote now’ merch in the world couldn’t deliver the Senate Majority that Wall Street had pinned its hopes of a sweeping stimulus deal upon.

To be sure, the Dems managed to flip a couple of high-profile seats; but the majority of “threatened” Republican Senators (and remember, there were a lot of them) managed to fend off deep-pocketed Democratic rivals.

Here’s a roundup of where things stand as of Wednesday morning in New York (courtesy of the NYT & Bloomberg):

  • Democratic Senate candidates were running slightly behind Biden in several states, making it difficult for the party to retake Senate control.
  • Republicans flipped one seat: Tommy Tuberville beat the Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama. Gary Peters, the Democratic incumbent in Michigan, is locked in a close race with his Republican challenger, John James; it will depend on the outstanding votes.
  • Democrats flipped two seats: John Hickenlooper defeated Gardner in Colorado, and Mark Kelly defeated McSally in Arizona.
  • In Iowa, Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican, won re-election. Republicans also won races in Montana, South Carolina — where Lindsey Graham held on to his seat — and Texas.
  • John Cornyn defeated Air Force combat veteran MJ Hegar. Republican Roger Marshall won the open Kansas Senate seat, defeating a well-funded Barbara Bollier in a race Democrats had hopes of winning if there was a wave election.
  • Georgia Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed by the governor, will face off against Democrat Raphael Warnock, senior pastor of the Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, in the runoff. In the other Georgia contest, Republican incumbent David Perdue was leading Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff, who narrowly lost an Atlanta-area House special election in 2017.
  • Democratic Senator Mark Warner was easily re-elected to a third term in Virginia and Republican Shelley Moore Capito won a second term in West Virginia, according to Associated Press projections. Incumbent Democrats Edward Markey in Massachusetts, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, Jack Reed in Rhode Island, Chris Coons in Delaware and Dick Durbin in Illinois also won re-election.
  • Along With McConnell and Capito, Republican James Inhofe won re-election in Oklahoma. In Tennessee, Republican Bill Hagerty won the seat being vacated by Republican Senator Lamar Alexander, who is retiring. South Dakota Republican Mike Rounds and Nebraska Republican Ben Sasse also were re-elected. In Wyoming, Republican Cynthia Lummis won election to the seat now held by Mike Enzi, who is retiring.
  • Several other races remain too close to call, including in Maine, where Senator Susan Collins leads the Democratic nominee, Sara Gideon. In a special Senate election in Georgia, the incumbent Kelly Loeffler is headed to a January runoff against the Democrat Raphael Warnock.

As we await the final results, President Trump has a much stronger chance of winning a second term than any of the ‘professionals’ anticipated, and although Twitter and Facebook affixed labels to some of his spicier tweets last night (including one accusing Democrats of trying to “steal” the election), the chaos that many had feared has given way to an eerie silence.

At this point, “virtually everything has to go right” for the Dems to take the Senate, said one veteran analyst with the Cook Political Report tweeted.

The two big tossup Senate races that have yet to be called involve Susan Collins (of Maine) and Thom Tillis (of North Carolina), both of whom were holding on to leads in vote counts. Both would need to lose to deliver the four seats that Dems would need to take an outright majority (rather than a 50-50 tie with the VP casting the deciding vote).

When President Trump said during rallies in recent weeks that he expected the GOP to take back the House, professional analysts sniggered. However, they failed to anticipate even the possibility that the GOP could expand its caucus. The Senate races “closely mirrored” the race at the top of the ticket, with few voters splitting ballots, as President Trump helped carry some embattled senators, including Lindsey Graham, over the line.

But as bad as the situation is for the Senate, Democrats’ performance in various tossup House races was even more abysmal. Though the Dems are expected to hold on to their majority, the GOP is expected to take more than 200 seats, leaving them with an emboldened minority. Pollsters had expected Dems to pick up more than a dozen seats; it’s just the latest reminder of how far off the public opinion polls were in the runup to the election.

Politico’s Jake Sherman put it best in a string of tweets where he labeled Tuesday “an abject disaster” for Democrats.

Bottom line: Republicans are headed for a net gain of around ten seats. Even members of Nancy Pelosi’s leadership team are having a hard time hanging on to their seats. When the dust settles, the speaker is going to have some explaining to do. Maybe it’s time for the Dems to put the 80-year-old Speaker out to pasture?

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California Voters Reject Race, Sex, Ethnic Preferences in Government Employment, Education, and Contracting

In 1996, California voters passed Prop. 209, which generally banned race, sex, and ethnic preferences in government employment, education, and contracting, by a 54½-45½% vote. That year, the California Assembly was nearly divided (switching from 41-39 Republican to 43-37 Democrat); the Senate went 23-16 Democrat; Republican Pete Wilson had been reelected governor the year before.

In 2020, the California Assembly is more than ¾ Democrat; the Senate is almost ¾ Democrat; the Governor has been a Democrat for nearly 10 years; it has close to the highest percentage of Biden votes among all the states. The Legislature had put an attempt to repeal the preferences ban on the ballot (as Prop. 16), and the attempt got a massive array of endorsements from political and business leaders. The Yes on Prop. 16 forces outfundraised the No by more than 15 to 1 ($27 million to $1.6 million). But Prop. 16 has just failed, apparently by 56-44%.

Even Deep Blue California doesn’t think that race, sex, or ethnicity should generally be factors in allotting places at public universities, jobs in state and local government, or government contracts—whether under the rubric of “diversity” or “affirmative action” or whatever else. And this is so in a year when much elite opinion was endorsing notions of “anti-racism” that expressly call for a massive return to racial preferences.

California, besides being Deep Blue, is also less white (and especially less non-Hispanic white) than ever before. Yet according to the latest pre-election poll (the Berkeley IGS Poll), many nonwhites as well as whites oppose these preferences.

The no-preferences side had an 18% lead among non-Hispanic whites, an 11% lead among Asians, and a 2% lead among Hispanics (basically a tie); and while the no-preferences side was losing by 25% among blacks, that still means 33% of blacks were on the no-preferences side. Indeed, nationwide, according to FiveThirtyEight.com, 51% of blacks oppose the view that “preferential hiring and promotion of Black people should be allowed.” (We don’t have the estimated demographic breakdown of the vote from the actual election, but the Berkeley IGS Poll margin in favor of the No side was 11 points, at 49%-38%, close to the 12 points by which the proposition seems to be winning.)

Now I was a legal advisor to the 1996 Prop. 209, and helped draft it, and I also helped slightly with the opposition to Prop. 16; I’m not an impartial observer here. And of course this is one election in one state.

Still, I think the message is pretty solid, and likely to carry the day in more moderate and conservative states as well: The public wants solutions to America’s racial problems that don’t further classify people by race, and divide people by race.

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Here Is The Latest On The Election

Here Is The Latest On The Election

Tyler Durden

Wed, 11/04/2020 – 08:24

Chaos. That’s the best way to describe what has happened in the past 12 hours.

Initially Trump shocked pollsters – again – after winning Florida by a whopping 370K votes where a surge in Hispanic support crippled hopes for a Biden landslide, followed by wins in Ohio and Texas. The early momentum saw Trump’s winning odds at online bookie Betfair surge as high as 80%. However, the momentum reversed after Biden managed to “flip” Arizona back to blue while the outcome remained unclear in six swing states — Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all of which are still counting votes, and while we may get some final vote counts today, others could take a few days.

And so Biden leading Trump 238 to 213 for the electoral college, where a 270 total is needed…

… this is how close some of the key battleground races were as of Wednesday morning:

  • In Wisconsin, Trump’s early lead fizzled as Milwaukee absentee ballots were counted, leading to a Democratic lead, and with 95% of the vote counted, Biden now has a razer-thin 21,000 vote lead.
  • The race in Michigan was razor thin as well, with Trump fractionally in the lead at 49.4%, vs 48.9% for Biden according to Edison Research, although Michigan’s Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said “hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots remain to be tabulated” and they will have a “much more complete picture” of Michigan’s results by end of the day.
  • Georgia saw Trump up by 102,000 with 94% of the vote counted by more votes expected to be counter from the Democratic stronghold of Atlanta.
  • North Carolina similarly saw Trump up by just under 80,000 votes with 94% of the vote counted, although like in Georgia much of the mailed-in ballots were outstanding.
  • Pennsylvania, a critical state for both candidates, saw Trump lead by 55.7% to 43.1%, but here too most of the metropolitan mailed-in votes were yet to be counted. Pennsylvania officials said they expect all votes to be counted by Friday.
  • Nevada had Biden up by only 8,000 with 67% of the vote tallied; Edison has reported that counting will not resume until noon ET on Thursday with outlets reports the candidates both on 49% with ~85% of votes tabulated.

In a nutshell, Biden needs to make progress in the likes of Pennsylvania (results possibly could be out as late as Friday), Michigan (results may be a few days) and Wisconsin (results could be out on Wednesday), although with most of the outstanding ballots mostly mail-ins, consensus is that they will favor Biden, because more Democrats than Republicans voted early this year. The question is will this be enough to flip Trump leads in key states.

As a result of this shift in momentum, Biden is now a 75% odds-on favorite to win the presidency at Betfair, a dramatic reversal from earlier when Trump was seen as an 80%-odds favorite. Why? Because if Biden holds onto his lead in Nevada and Wisconsin, he would need to win only one of three states — Georgia, Michigan or Pennsylvania — to secure a majority of electoral votes, and could still lose North Carolina.

Whether this reverses again in the coming hours will depend on the outcome of the mailed-in ballot vote count in key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. Incidentally, Fox decision desk guru just told Fox & Friends “he’d rather be Biden than Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin and that if Biden wins those states — threw in Nevada for good measure — Biden is the next president.”

No matter the final outcome, Trump dramatically outperformed initial polling estimates, and even the NYT admits that “many of the state polls were wrong and underestimated support for Republicans — again.” A big question in coming days according to the NYT will be “why: Did polls again fail to include enough working-class white voters, as was the case in 2016? Or was it something else?” (spoiler alert: it was something else, and it’s called poll bias being constantly in the Democrats’ favor).

It is also notable that Trump managed to improve his overall popular vote count by nearly 4 million from 2016, rising to 66.75 million versus 62.98 million, and as David Rosenberg puts it, Trump clearly has more than just a “base” supporting him. Or there are a lot of folks who feared a Blue Wave/move to the left. “America is never going socialist. That’s one message among many.”

Meanwhile, Biden has not made as much progress in key areas as was expected, while the loss of Hispanic support in Florida should serve as a major warning for Democrats, with even the NYT admitting “Democrats struggled to match their 2016 margins among Hispanic voters” which hurt Biden, “especially in Florida and Texas.”

* * *

The two candidates took to addressing the nation shortly after midnight, with Biden coming up first, and urging patience.

“We believe we’re on track to win this election,” he said. “We’re going to have to be patient until the hard work of tallying the votes is finished. And it ain’t over until every vote is counted, every ballot is counted.”

This was followed by Trump at 2:30am when he declared himself the winner, and said he would call on the Supreme Court to stop counting ballots in states where he led, while urging more counting in states where he was behind. Trump also claimed “fraud” and he called the election an “embarrassment to the country.”

Trump’s declaration prompted the Pennsylvania Governor to warn that over 1 million mail-in-ballots are yet to have been counted.

At this point the “blue checkmarks” on Twitter lost it:

  • “This is an extremely flammable situation and the president just threw a match into it,” Chris Wallace said on Fox News, after Trump’s remarks. “He hasn’t won these states.
  • “Donald Trump called it a ‘fraud’ to continue to count votes. This does not sound like a democracy.” — Olivia Nuzzi, New York Magazine
  • “What Trump did tonight is shocking, even though he’s been telegraphing this for some time. He’s primed his supporters to believe any result that doesn’t involve him winning is fraud.” — Rosie Gray, BuzzFeed News
  • “Trump may indeed win. But he certainly hasn’t yet. And, he doesn’t get to say that your vote shouldn’t be counted.” — S.E. Cupp, CNN

And so on. The Biden campaign also countered that “the president’s statement tonight about trying to shut down the counting of duly cast ballots was outrageous, unprecedented, and incorrect.”

* * *

While questions remain over the presidential race, things are much clearer in the Senate where the widely anticipated Blue Wave has crashed as hopes for a Democrat takeover fizzled, as Republicans now are in a strong position to retain Senate control, which would give them a veto over nearly all of a President Biden’s legislative plans, and collapsing hopes for a massive stimulus (which is also why the reflation trade is crashing and burning this morning, with tech stocks and Treasurys soaring).

According to the NYT, Democrats needed to win at least five of the 14 competitive Senate races and have so far won only two. Six races remain up in the air. The only incumbent Republicans to have lost are Martha McSally in Arizona and Cory Gardner in Colorado.

Finally, here are some of the notable state-ballot initiatives:

  • Florida voted to raise its minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026, getting support from 61 percent of voters — which means that a large number of Floridians voted for both Trump and a big increase in the minimum wage.
  • Colorado’s proposed ban on late-term abortions did not pass.
  • New Jersey, South Dakota and Arizona voted to legalize recreational marijuana, and Oregon became the first state to decriminalize possessing a small amount of any street drug.
  • Mississippi voted to adopt a new state flag that does not feature the Confederate Battle Flag.
  • California voted to allow workers for companies like Uber or Lyft to be independent contractors, instead of employees, The Los Angeles Times reports.

And while one can debate if Trump or Biden was the winner, the biggest losers of the night were pollsters who once again showed their clear Democratic bias and prompted questions over whether this industry should even exist.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/367xvZe Tyler Durden