Artificial Intelligence Helps French Tax Authorities Find Thousands of Untaxed Swimming Pools


swimming pool drone surveillance France taxes tax pools IRS

Using aerial photos and artificial intelligence, French tax officials have reportedly identified more than 20,000 previously untaxed residential swimming pools—potentially netting the French government a windfall of more than 10 million euros ($10 million).

And that total likely represents only a fraction of the cheese-eating tax cheats out there. According to The New York Times, the photo-scanning A.I. tool developed in tandem by a French IT firm and Google has been deployed so far in just nine of the county’s 96 administrative districts. But it has been so successful that French officials are planning a national effort in the coming months.

Swimming pools matter because the French property tax system is based on the theoretical rental value of a home and its surrounding lands. That means building additions to your house or improving the grounds—for example by adding a pool—can come with a costly tax bill. According to Ars Technica, a new pool adds about 200 euros to the average French property tax coffers. The General Directorate of Public Finance—their IRS equivalent—believes it could collect as much as 40 million euros in additional taxes when the A.I. tool is deployed across the rest of the country, per The Verge.

Because this is France, a lot of the political controversy stirred up by the use of aerial photos and A.I. to detect untaxed pools is not for the reasons you might expect—or perhaps exactly for the reasons you’d expect: The Times reports that the unions representing French tax collectors are opposed to the effort, fearing that it will “replace field work by tax collectors and surveyors” with algorithms.

Ars Technica notes that the French firm that developed the software is facing criticism for contracting with Google.

A more efficient tax collection service that requires fewer bureaucrats isn’t necessarily bad. And Americans don’t have to worry about getting a bigger federal tax bill if they improve the value of their property (though property taxes do fund other levels of government). But even if the IRS won’t be spying on our backyards in the hopes of charging us extra next year, there’s a warning here about what happens when you give tax cops more resources and more power: Lots of people end up having to pay more in taxes.

The expected 87,000 new agents that the IRS will hire thanks to the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act won’t be literally sorting through photos of Americans’ backyards, but they will be sorting through Americans’ financial backyards. Despite what Democrats (and compliant media “fact checkers”) claimed in the run-up to the bill’s passage, there is little reason to believe the enhanced tax scrutiny will be focused exclusively on Americans earning more than $400,000. In fact, about half of the so-called “tax gap” that the bill envisions closing would have to come from Americans earning less than $200,000 annually, according to a Joint Committee on Taxation analysis.

Bigger tax authorities operating with more powerful technology will translate into higher tax bills for the poor suckers unlucky enough to live under those regimes. That’s true whether your “tax crime” is having an unreported swimming pool or filling out the wrong form at your bank.

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Do We Need to Rapidly Convert to Renewables To Save the Planet? A Soho Forum Debate


Thumbnail_Climate_Science_Dessler_vs_Kooin_v2

Does the world need to rapidly convert to using renewable energy to save the planet from global warming? That was the topic of a Soho Forum debate held at the Sheen Center in New York City on Monday, August 15, 2022. 

Andrew Dessler, the director of the Texas Center for Climate Studies at Texas A&M University, argued that fossil fuels are endangering life on the planet by causing global warming through greenhouse gas emissions. He contended that solar and wind represent safe, reliable, and cost-effective means to decarbonize the electric grid. 

Steven Koonin, who served as undersecretary for science at the Department of Energy during the Obama administration and is the founding director of New York University’s Center for Urban Science and Progress, argued that making large and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions aren’t necessary to protect the earth. He also contended that doing so isn’t cost-effective and that it’s immoral. Koonin is also the author of Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters.

The debate was moderated by Soho Forum Director Gene Epstein.

Intro edited by Regan Taylor; interview body edited by Brett Raney.

Photos by Brett Raney.

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11,000 Federal Inmates Were Sent Home During the Pandemic. Only 17 Were Arrested for New Crimes.


a person wearing an orange prison jumpsuit

Of the more than 11,000 federal inmates who were released to home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic, 17 were returned to prison for committing new crimes, according to the Bureau of Prisons (BOP).

In response to a query from Keri Blakinger, a reporter for The Marshall Project, the Bureau of Prisons said that of the 17, 10 committed drug crimes, while the rest of the charges included smuggling non-citizens, nonviolent domestic disturbance, theft, aggravated assault, and DUI.

Criminal justice groups that worked to keep those people from returning to federal prison say the numbers are vindication for them.

“For those of us who think there’s too many people who are serving too long in prison, you couldn’t ask for a more affirming number,” says Kevin Ring, president of the criminal justice advocacy nonprofit FAMM.

“You hear demagogues a lot of times say that people in federal prison are the worst of the worst, and that’s false. Anyone who’s visited a federal prison camp knows that there’s no fences around them, and that people stay on the honor system,” says Ring.

“These numbers show that that’s statistically false as well,” he adds.

NPR reported that nearly 11,000 federal inmates had been released to home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic. The expanded releases were authorized by the massive pandemic relief bill passed by Congress, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, with the intention of reducing the spread and lethality of COVID-19 in federal prisons.

Those released early to home confinement began to rebuild their lives and reconnect with their families, but there was the question of what would happen to them once the pandemic was over. In the final days of the Trump administration, the Justice Department released a memo finding that once the federal government ended its COVID-19 emergency declaration, all of those former inmates with remaining sentences would have to report back to federal prison.

Groups like FAMM and the American Civil Liberties Union began pressing the Biden administration to reverse that decision. The White House initially declined to do so, instead announcing a clemency initiative that would have only targeted nonviolent drug offenders, leaving thousands of others, like white-collar offenders, to return to prison regardless of their conduct on the outside. However, last December the Justice Department reversed course and issued a new memo finding that the BOP had the discretion to leave them on home confinement for the remainder of their sentences.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R–Ark.), one of the most pro-incarceration members of the Senate, wrote that the reversal “betrays victims and law-enforcement agencies that trusted the federal government to keep convicted criminals away from the neighborhoods that the offenders once terrorized.”

“Federal incarceration keeps notorious criminals far from their communities and thereby limits their capacity to maintain their criminal enterprises and their ability to intimidate victims and witnesses from the inside,” Cotton continued.

But the reality for the thousands released on home confinement was uncertainty and fear that they would be ripped away from their families again for inscrutable or petty reasons. For example, a 76-year-old woman on home confinement was nearly sent back to prison for missing a telephone call from prison officials while attending a computer class.

NPR reported that of the more than 400 people on home confinement sent back to prison for technical violations, more than half involved alleged alcohol or drug use. For example, NPR profiled the case of Eva Cardoza and her fiancé Eric Alvarez, who had been struggling with heart problems and colon cancer while also caring for their five children before Cardoza returned from prison:

In June 2021, Alvarez and Cardoza took a 90-minute cab ride into the Bronx, so she could meet with staffers in charge of her supervision. Cardoza, who had tested positive for marijuana, never came out of the building. Alvarez ended up forking out $433 to cover the hours the taxi meter ran as he waited in vain.

Cardoza’s return to prison turned the family upside down. She’s now been back at Danbury for 14 months. Alvarez said she never got the chance to explain herself or challenge that single positive drug test.

“That’s just mind boggling to me,” Alvarez said. “Where is the judicial system? Where is the fairness? Where is the 50-50? I don’t see it.”

NPR reported today that, hours after its story aired, a judge released Cardoza due to “extraordinary circumstances.”

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Do We Need to Rapidly Convert to Renewables To Save the Planet? A Soho Forum Debate


Thumbnail_Climate_Science_Dessler_vs_Kooin_v2

Does the world need to rapidly convert to using renewable energy to save the planet from global warming? That was the topic of a Soho Forum debate held at the Sheen Center in New York City on Monday, August 15, 2022. 

Andrew Dessler, the director of the Texas Center for Climate Studies at Texas A&M University, argued that fossil fuels are endangering life on the planet by causing global warming through greenhouse gas emissions. He contended that solar and wind represent safe, reliable, and cost-effective means to decarbonize the electric grid. 

Steven Koonin, who served as undersecretary for science at the Department of Energy during the Obama administration and is the founding director of New York University’s Center for Urban Science and Progress, argued that making large and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions aren’t necessary to protect the earth. He also contended that doing so isn’t cost-effective and that it’s immoral. Koonin is also the author of Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters.

The debate was moderated by Soho Forum Director Gene Epstein.

Intro edited by Regan Taylor; interview body edited by Brett Raney.

Photos by Brett Raney.

The post Do We Need to Rapidly Convert to Renewables To Save the Planet? A Soho Forum Debate appeared first on Reason.com.

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11,000 Federal Inmates Were Sent Home During the Pandemic. Only 17 Were Arrested for New Crimes.


a person wearing an orange prison jumpsuit

Of the more than 11,000 federal inmates who were released to home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic, 17 were returned to prison for committing new crimes, according to the Bureau of Prisons (BOP).

In response to a query from Keri Blakinger, a reporter for The Marshall Project, the Bureau of Prisons said that of the 17, 10 committed drug crimes, while the rest of the charges included smuggling non-citizens, nonviolent domestic disturbance, theft, aggravated assault, and DUI.

Criminal justice groups that worked to keep those people from returning to federal prison say the numbers are vindication for them.

“For those of us who think there’s too many people who are serving too long in prison, you couldn’t ask for a more affirming number,” says Kevin Ring, president of the criminal justice advocacy nonprofit FAMM.

“You hear demagogues a lot of times say that people in federal prison are the worst of the worst, and that’s false. Anyone who’s visited a federal prison camp knows that there’s no fences around them, and that people stay on the honor system,” says Ring.

“These numbers show that that’s statistically false as well,” he adds.

NPR reported that nearly 11,000 federal inmates had been released to home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic. The expanded releases were authorized by the massive pandemic relief bill passed by Congress, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, with the intention of reducing the spread and lethality of COVID-19 in federal prisons.

Those released early to home confinement began to rebuild their lives and reconnect with their families, but there was the question of what would happen to them once the pandemic was over. In the final days of the Trump administration, the Justice Department released a memo finding that once the federal government ended its COVID-19 emergency declaration, all of those former inmates with remaining sentences would have to report back to federal prison.

Groups like FAMM and the American Civil Liberties Union began pressing the Biden administration to reverse that decision. The White House initially declined to do so, instead announcing a clemency initiative that would have only targeted nonviolent drug offenders, leaving thousands of others, like white-collar offenders, to return to prison regardless of their conduct on the outside. However, last December the Justice Department reversed course and issued a new memo finding that the BOP had the discretion to leave them on home confinement for the remainder of their sentences.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R–Ark.), one of the most pro-incarceration members of the Senate, wrote that the reversal “betrays victims and law-enforcement agencies that trusted the federal government to keep convicted criminals away from the neighborhoods that the offenders once terrorized.”

“Federal incarceration keeps notorious criminals far from their communities and thereby limits their capacity to maintain their criminal enterprises and their ability to intimidate victims and witnesses from the inside,” Cotton continued.

But the reality for the thousands released on home confinement was uncertainty and fear that they would be ripped away from their families again for inscrutable or petty reasons. For example, a 76-year-old woman on home confinement was nearly sent back to prison for missing a telephone call from prison officials while attending a computer class.

NPR reported that of the more than 400 people on home confinement sent back to prison for technical violations, more than half involved alleged alcohol or drug use. For example, NPR profiled the case of Eva Cardoza and her fiancé Eric Alvarez, who had been struggling with heart problems and colon cancer while also caring for their five children before Cardoza returned from prison:

In June 2021, Alvarez and Cardoza took a 90-minute cab ride into the Bronx, so she could meet with staffers in charge of her supervision. Cardoza, who had tested positive for marijuana, never came out of the building. Alvarez ended up forking out $433 to cover the hours the taxi meter ran as he waited in vain.

Cardoza’s return to prison turned the family upside down. She’s now been back at Danbury for 14 months. Alvarez said she never got the chance to explain herself or challenge that single positive drug test.

“That’s just mind boggling to me,” Alvarez said. “Where is the judicial system? Where is the fairness? Where is the 50-50? I don’t see it.”

NPR reported today that, hours after its story aired, a judge released Cardoza due to “extraordinary circumstances.”

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Bear Market Wealth Management

Bear Market Wealth Management

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Growing wealth happens over decades. Within these decades are many bullish and bearish cycles. While investors tend to focus on making the most of the bullish cycles, it is equally important to avoid letting bear markets reverse your progress. The amount of time spent in bear markets is minimal, but the time lost recovering your wealth can be substantial. Given the possibility that we are in the early innings of a bear market, it is worth revisiting bear market wealth management strategies and the math showing why such a strategy is essential.

Is This Time Different?

Over the last two decades, investors have gravitated toward passive buy-and-hold strategies. Who can blame them? Such strategies allow investors to sit back and relax. Avoiding having to time markets and picking winning stocks is not only simple, but it has been effective. 

Passive buy and hold strategies work in large part because the low inflation regime of the last thirty years allowed the Fed to support markets with plenty of excess liquidity when markets felt some turbulence. Low-interest rates and QE support high valuations and asset prices, as shown below.  

Is the low inflation regime changing? In Persistent Inflation Scares The Fed and Deglobalization and Central Banking, we make a case that a persistent price-wage spiral and deglobalization may cause inflation to run hotter than it has in quite a while. Instead of assuming inflation will normalize and monetary policy will return to normal, we must ask tough questions.

  • What if inflation proves persistent and doesn’t retreat by as much or as fast as investors expect?

  • What if central bankers must keep administering the harsh monetary medicine the markets are struggling to digest?

As we wrote in Deglobalization and Central Banking:

They (central bankers) are very adept and have the tools to control demand. They do not have the tools to manage supply. We are potentially on the cusp of enormous change.

Persistently higher inflation may keep the Fed focused on the prices of goods and less so on asset prices. Passive strategies in such an environment will likely have much less success than it has during most of our careers. Bear market wealth management strategies may be the key to keeping your wealth goals on track.

Buy and Hold vs. Bear Market Wealth Management

Nothing is complicated about a bear market wealth management strategy, but it differs vastly from a buy-and-hold passive approach.

Bear market strategies boil down to managing equity exposure. As a real example, in Liquidity and Valuations, we examined how we repositioned our client’s portfolios at the start of 2022 and managed through the 20+% drawdown. To wit:

Sensing the Fed was about to pull the liquidity rug from the markets, we started reducing our risk starting on the first trading day of 2022. Not only did we sell shares to reduce our gross equity exposure, but we rotated from higher beta growth stocks to lower beta value stocks.

Without getting into details, we reduced our exposure to the stock market regarding the percentage allocated to stocks and the types of stocks we held. As a result, we are handily outperforming our benchmark and all primary stock indexes year to date.

The Compounding Math Supporting Bear Market Wealth Management

We share two simple scenarios to explain why actively managing risk exposure and limiting drawdowns in a bear market is so important. In both scenarios, we initially invested $10,000 in 2004. Scenario A is a buy-and-hold passive portfolio. It is fully allocated to the S&P 500 at all times. The Scenario B portfolio is fully allocated to the S&P 500 at all times except during the bear market of 2008. During that period, scenario B’s portfolio has a 50% allocation to the S&P 500, with the remainder in cash earning 0%. We reinvest dividends in both scenarios.

The first graph below shows that by simply cutting equity exposure in half for less than two years, scenario B’s value is currently 41% more than scenario A.

The following graph shows that both scenarios started with the same number of shares. But after redeploying cash in 2009, scenario B now has 50% more shares to earn dividends and profits.

A bear market wealth management strategy is simple with 20/20 hindsight. In reality, we know that getting in and out of markets at the exact top or bottom is impossible. The point of the example is to show that any reduction of exposure that diminishes your losses. Accordingly, it leaves you more wealth to invest when the bull market returns.

To boil this down, all we did was cut our exposure in half for two years over 18 years. As a result, our wealth was 41% greater than it would have been. Had we reduced our exposure more and acted similarly in 2020 and 2022, the relative returns would have been even better.

Summary

The benefit of compounding is maximized when a portfolio can feed on itself. Ben Franklin summarized compounding as follows:

The money that money earns, earns money

Any reduced exposure to stocks in a bear market leaves more money to buy stocks when prices are lower. The advice is so simple yet so hard for many investors to follow.

The mutual fund complexes and banks and brokers want commoditized markets. What better way than passive strategies to create a one size fits all approach? While buy and hold and other passive strategies may help their bottom lines, they are not always best for your bottom line.

We end with an oldie but goodie from Lance Roberts:

“It is ALWAYS okay to miss out on an opportunity, as opportunities come along as often as a taxicab in New York City. However, it is IMPOSSIBLE to make up losses as you can never regain the time lost getting back to even”.  

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/31/2022 – 11:05

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DOJ Alleges ‘Obstructive Conduct’ Occurred At Mar-A-Lago, Opposes Special Master

DOJ Alleges ‘Obstructive Conduct’ Occurred At Mar-A-Lago, Opposes Special Master

On Tuesday night the Department of Justice filed its opposition to the appointment of a Special Master to sort through documents seized during the Aug 8 raid on former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence.

Included in their 36-page filing was a photograph of documents seized from Trump’s Florida home, and an accusation that someone may have tried to remove or conceal classified documents prior to the raid, constituting potential obstructive conduct.

TOP SECRET/SCI” blazed out on cover sheets for at least five sets of papers haphazardly laid out on the carpeting. Another cover sheet at the fore of the government photo said “SECRET/SCI” and “Contains sensitive compartmented information,” which refers to documents that include references to intelligence sources and methods.

The DOJ filing came in response to Trump’s request for an independent review of the materials seized from his home by a special master, which is often a retired judge who will segregate materials that may be covered by attorney-client privilege, or should otherwise he held back from the investigation.

As Jonathan Turley reports via Jonathanturley.org (emphasis ours):

The Department makes many of the same claims that it used to opposed the release of a redacted affidavit, claims shown to have been misleading and exaggerated after the magistrate ordered the release.  Notably, this filing contained details that were likely redacted in the affidavit but just released on the public record.

In the most direct challenge to the former President’s public claims, the Justice Department claimed that he and his staff had failed to turn over classified material and that the Department had no choice but to search areas outside of the storage room. Indeed, it says that it found three classified documents in Trump’s desk without indicating the level of classification or subject matter.

It also said that the Trump staff barred the FBI from looking at documents in the storage room after turning over classified information to them.

“As the former President’s filing indicates, the FBI agents and DOJ attorney were permitted to visit the storage room. See D.E. 1 at 5-6. Critically, however, the former President’s counsel explicitly prohibited government personnel from opening or looking inside any of the boxes that remained in the storage room, giving no opportunity for the government to confirm that no documents with classification markings remained.”

The filing also adds new disclosures on past claims of declassification by Trump. It states that “[w]hen producing the Fifteen Boxes, the former President never asserted executive privilege over any of the documents nor claimed that any of the documents in the boxes containing classification markings had been declassified.” That was in January 2022.  It then alleges that, in the June 3, 2022 meeting, “neither counsel nor the custodian asserted that the former President had declassified the documents or asserted any claim of executive privilege.” It is not clear if or when the Trump team made the declassification claim.

The filing also includes this notable allegation:

“The government also developed evidence that government records were likely concealed and removed from the Storage Room and that efforts were likely taken to obstruct the government’s investigation.”

The Justice Department told the court that it was vindicated in its suspicions and that

the FBI, in a matter of hours, recovered twice as many documents with classification markings as the ‘diligent search’ that the former President’s counsel and other representatives had weeks to perform calls into serious question the representations made in the June 3 certification and casts doubt on the extent of cooperation in this matter.”

It is not clear from the filing if the FBI has evidence of intentional acts of concealment as opposed to negligence in keeping track of such material.

The main point of the filing was to address the court’s indication that it wanted a special master appointment. I have supported such an appointment, even at this late date.  Indeed, I felt that this was one of the four failures of Attorney General Merrick Garland in not taking proactive steps to assure that public that this was not a pretextual raid to collect sensitive material for other investigative purposes. It would still have considerable value in the case.

The special master could divide these documents in classified material, unclassified but defense information, and unclassified material outside of the scope of the alleged crimes. The last category would then be returned. That accounting could also offer basic descriptive information on the material without revealing their precise content or titles. The special master could describe material as related to national defense or nuclear weapons (as was previously leaked government sources). The government has already leaked that there was nuclear weapons material being sought. Confirming such general details can be done without giving details on the specific information or even titles for the documents to protect national security. In national security cases, including cases where I have served as counsel, such indexes and summaries are common.

Notably, this filing includes the picture which is being widely distributed. It can, however, leave an obviously misleading impression.

The picture could be seen by many that secret documents were strewn over the floor when this appears the method used by the FBI to isolate classified documents.  It also seems entirely superfluous in releasing this one picture. The picture is Attachment F and the textual reference on page 13 simply says

“Certain of the documents had colored cover sheets indicating their classification status. See, e.g., Attachment F (redacted FBI photograph of certain documents and classified cover sheets recovered from a container in the “45 office”).”

It is curious that the DOJ would release this particular picture which suggests classified material laying around on the floor. The point is to state a fact that hardly needs an optical confirmation: the possession of documents with classified cover sheets. Indeed, the top of roughly half of the documents are redacted in photo. The government could simply affirmatively state the fact of the covered pages and would not likely be challenged on that point without the inclusion of this one photo. For critics, the photo may appear another effort (with prior leaks) to help frame the public optics and discussion.

The arguments raised by the Justice Department are not just familiar but transparently weak. The government argues that Trump lacks standing because the records belong to the United States, not him. However, that is the point. The court is trying to determine who has a right to these documents. The Justice Department itself recognizes that it may have gathered some attorney-client privileged documents in this ridiculously broad search. It allowed the seizure of any box containing any document with any classification of any kind — and all boxes stored with that box. It also allowed the seizure of any writing from Trump’s presidency.

Moreover, the court itself has ample authority to appoint a special master to help sort through such material.

The Justice Department also makes the same type of arguments used to oppose the release of a single line of the affidavit in redacted form.  It claims that both its investigation and national security would be harmed. That is even less compelling here. A special master would be reviewing documents in a secure facility and would presumably have a clearance. Many of us who have handled national security cases have been cleared for TS/SCI material.

How exactly would a special master review materially undermine national security as opposed to the same review conducted by the Justice Department’s own taint team? The special master is an extension of the court. This is simply a court review in camera of documents.

The use of such arguments after the release of the redacted affidavit only undermines the arguments further. The Justice Department insisted that the court should not release a single line of the affidavit and that any substantive disclosure would unleash a parade of horribles, from damaging national security to sacrificing witnesses.

For those of us who have litigated cases against the Justice Department, it was an all-too-familiar claim by a department notorious for over-classification and over-redaction arguments. For a week, media pundits mouthed the same exaggerated claims and challenged those of us who argued that it was clearly possible to release a redacted affidavit; liberals suddenly shuddered at the thought of doubting the Justice Department.  Then the government produced a redacted version that cause no such harms while confirming important facts in the case.

Notably, some of the details in this filing on meetings before the August raid may have been part of the affidavit but redacted.

The Department also claims that it does not need to return personal material to the former president because the evidence of “commingling personal effects with documents bearing classification markings is relevant evidence of the statutory offenses under investigation.”  That is again transparency weak. The government has recorded or documented such intermingling and make a record for any trial without refusing to return material that is neither classified nor otherwise subject to government confiscation or removal.

The Department also makes other incomplete or dubious arguments. For example, it asserts that no executive privilege claim can be made by a former president: “The former President cites no case—and the government is aware of none—in which executive privilege has been successfully invoked to prohibit the sharing of documents within the Executive Branch.” That is because this issue has not been fully litigated. It has been a long debate over the ability of former presidents to claim privilege. Indeed, under the Presidential Records Act, such assertions are honored over documents in its possession.

What is clear from this filing is that Merrick Garland will not change his refusal to seek modest steps to assure the public that this investigation is neither pretextual nor political. Instead, he is “all in” on these sweeping and untenable claims of the need for absolute control and secrecy. What is missing is real leadership to address the deep concerns of millions of Americans over the past record of the Department and its current investigation.  Instead, Garland has required courts to force the release of a redacted affidavit and the possible appointment of a special master.

What is clear is that Garland’s “trust us” mantra has done little to assuage concerns. Indeed, that seems almost comical to many people, given the Crossfire Hurricane debacle and the fact that this investigation is being handled by the same section.

The court should reject the arguments against the appointment of a special master and allow for an independent review of these documents.

Here is the filing: doj-response-to-trump-special-master

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/31/2022 – 10:46

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WTI Extends Losses Despite Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw

WTI Extends Losses Despite Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw

Crude prices extended yesterday’s losses this morning with WTI trading back below $90 briefly as recession fears combined with lower anxiety over Iraq disruptions were exacerbated by a collapse in liquidity in the futures market.

“Crude oil’s bounce from a six-month low has faded fast following Friday’s hawkish message from Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, which once again raised concerns that the central banks aggressive stance towards combatting runaway inflation would mean lower growth and with that lower demand for crude oil and fuel products,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note.

Slowing demand in China, the world’s largest importer, is also adding to expectations for weaker demand, as the country imposed fresh Covid-19 lockdowns in the cities of Dalian and Shenzhen, while factory orders fell in August.

Also adding to the drop, OPEC’s technical committee, reporting ahead of the OPEC+ monthly meeting on Sept.5, raised its estimate for the surplus of supply in the global market to 0.9-million barrels day, up from its July report estimating a surplus of 0.8-million bpd, according to reports.

The API-reported crude build also piled on some additional selling pressure at the margin.

All algo’s eyes will be on the official data to confirm that build.

API

  • Crude +593k (-1.9mm exp)

  • Cushing -599k

  • Gasoline -3.414mm (-1.3mm exp)

  • Distillates -1.726mm (-1.2mm exp)

DOE

  • Crude -3.326mm (-1.9mm exp)

  • Cushing -523k

  • Gasoline -1.172mm (-1.3mm exp)

  • Distillates +112k (-1.2mm exp)

Shunning API’s reported build, the official data showed US crude stocks drew-down for the 3rd straight week. Cushing stocks drew down for the firs time in 9 weeks. Distillates inventories rose while gasoline stocks fell once again…

Source: Bloomberg

US gasoline demand remained below 2020 levels last week…

Source: Bloomberg

Drilling activity is stalling out for the first time since it began to recover in September 2020. Over the past two years, the rig count has marched forward at a consistent clip of about five new rigs a week — until this month, that is.

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering around $90.50 ahead of the official data and slipped a little lower after…

BI’s Valle: “Significant economic slowdowns in China, India and Brazil could have dire consequences for oil prices in the short term. But we still see a lack of supply as the most pressing force over the next two-to-three years.”

Finally, we note that Diesel prices rose this week for the first time in over two months and given oil and gasoline’s recent moves, we suspect gas-pump prices will be turning higher again soon…

And with that, Biden’s approval bounce will be over.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/31/2022 – 10:35

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Oil Market “Completely Broken” Says World’s Largest Commodity Hedge Fund Trader

Oil Market “Completely Broken” Says World’s Largest Commodity Hedge Fund Trader

Echoing what we said first two months ago (“Inside The Oil Market’s Jekyll-And-Hyde Moment“), an observation confirmed first by Goldman on more than one occasion (here and here), and also the Saudi Energy minister bin Salman who one week ago said that “the paper and physical markets have become increasingly more disconnected” due to lack of liquidity, this morning none other than Pierre Andurand, the head of the world’s largest oil hedge fund and the commodities trader known for his bullish calls (and record gains in the past year) tweeted that the oil futures market is now “completely broken” as futures can now move $10 lower a day “for no apparent reason” (just wait until he learns about S&P futures…)

As Goldman explained previously, the financial market for oil is indeed broken due to a total collapse in liquidity and lack of hedging, which has led oil prices to have daily swings of more than $5 over a dozen times this year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

While such moves once would have been considered out of the ordinary one upon a time, with open interest in oil futures at a seven-year low, bigger fluctuations have become the norm.  Combined open interest on the four main Brent and WTI contracts fell below 4 billion barrels for the first time since June 2015 last week, Standard Chartered said in a note, while Goldman pointed out yesterday that both net spec length (i.e., outright bulls) and open interest have cratered.

“The market has stopped even asking why we are down $5 in a session or why we are down $2.50 this morning,” said Scott Shelton, energy specialist at ICAP.

Yet while financial markets remain skittish and continue pressing oil prices lower, the fundamental, physical market has become extremely tight, and as Goldman warned most recently yesterday, we may not be too far from an explosive move higher as the collapse in inventory finally spooks all the oil shorts and the same illquidity that has pushed oil lower sends it to all time highs.

The full Goldman report is available to pro subscribers.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/31/2022 – 10:24

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Taiwan Vows Counter-Attack If China Enters Territory Amid 2nd ‘Warning Shot’ Drone Incident

Taiwan Vows Counter-Attack If China Enters Territory Amid 2nd ‘Warning Shot’ Drone Incident

Taiwan is warning that its military won’t hesitate to exercise right of self-defense and to counter-attack in the event of Chinese forces entering its territory, following an unprecedented event on Tuesday wherein live ammunition was fired as ‘warning shots’ against a cluster of drones that appeared near the Taiwan-controlled Kinmen islands. Flares had initially been deployed to warn off the drones, but per Taiwan’s defense ministry live ammo was then used to force the drones’ departure. Taipei followed Wednesday with this warning: “We will continue defending our national security, firmly holding on to the median line, and doing whatever it takes to protect our homes, our families, and our sovereignty,” according to the words of defense ministry spokesperson Li-Fang Sun.

Within hours after issuing the warning, another drone incident has been reported, with Taiwan’s military saying it detected “three civilian drones” in the area of its offshore island possessions on Wednesday. It further confirmed that warning shots were again fired to fend off the unidentified drones, believed to have been dispatched from China’s mainland.

Taiwan sentries at an island outpost, which have seen an uptick in reported Chinese drone activity, via Weibo.

There’s been a reported series of what are believed to be Chinese drones approaching Taiwan-held islands, which lie close to mainland China, including at Matsu islands.

While Taiwanese media described Tuesday’s major incident as involving “civilian drones” – it’s as yet unclear whether the PLA military was operating them, or the degree to which Chinese military drones have been deployed near the islands. 

As for the Kinmen Islands, site of this latest warning shot incident, they lie a mere 10km east of the Chinese mainland city of Xiamen in Fujian.

Map source: BBC

Additional military statements issued Wednesday indicated Taiwan’s forces are on high alert and ready to engage should more Chinese drones be spotted inbound

The military will determine “whether to engage the target and exercise the right of self-defense to counter-attack,” if the drones fail to leave after warnings, Major General Lin Wen-huang, director of operations and planning division, said.

“We will use naval and air forces and coastal fire to repel PLA (Chinese People’s Liberation Army) forces that enter our 24-nautical-mile or 12-nautical-mile zones,” said Lin.

“When the PLA aircraft and ships are in our 12-nautical-mile territorial sea and air space, we will act in accordance with operational orders to exercise the right of self-defence to counter-attack,” he said at an online news briefing.

The specific wording of these threats to respond military is interesting given that PLA Eastern Theater forces have on a weekly bases been breaching the median line that separates the Taiwan Strait, since Nancy Pelosi’s provocative Aug.2 visit to Taipei, which set off unprecedented Chinese live fire drills that encircled the self-ruled island. 

Throughout the summer a number of videos have surfaced which appear to show foreign drones harassing Taiwan military outposts in the outlying islands, driving tensions higher:

These have widely circulated in regional social media: 

Adding to all of these building tensions, and amid fears in Taipei of a near-future “forced reunification” move by Beijing, the US has sent a series of official delegations – the latest being led by Arizona governor Doug Ducey. This is the fifth American delegation going back to Nancy Pelosi’s early August visit.  

A Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs press release emphasized that “Arizona and Taiwan have close economic and trade relations. More than 100 Taiwanese companies have made investments in Arizona, mainly involved with semiconductors, aerospace, electronic components, computer equipment, and related services.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/31/2022 – 10:05

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