Bill Introduced To Bring Independent Oversight to Federal Prison System


prison cells

Legislation was introduced this week in Congress that would bring independent oversight to the beleaguered federal prison system.

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D–Ga.), Sen. Mike Braun (R–Ind.), and Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D–Ill.) introduced the Federal Prison Oversight Act on Wednesday. The bill would require the Department of Justice’s Inspector General to conduct detailed inspections of each of the Bureau of Prisons’ 122 facilities and, more significantly, create an independent Justice Department ombudsman to investigate complaints.

The legislation comes on the heels of a bipartisan investigation by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations into widespread corruption and abuse at a federal prison complex in Atlanta. Congressional investigators found that senior leadership at both the complex and the Bureau of Prisons (BOP) had been aware of the problems for years but failed to act.

“My 10-month bipartisan investigation of corruption, abuse, and misconduct in the Federal prison system revealed an urgent need to overhaul federal prison oversight,” Ossoff said in a press release. “I am bringing Democrats and Republicans together to crack down on corruption, strengthen public safety, and protect civil rights.”

The federal prison system has been in a state of turmoil for several years now, racked by chronic staff shortages, embarrassing lapses in safety and security—such as the in-custody deaths of disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein and Boston mobster Whitey Bulger—and a cover-up culture that shields misbehaving officials from consequences and retaliates against whistleblowers.

In February, an investigation by the Associated Press into FCI Dublin, a federal women’s prison in California, found “a permissive and toxic culture at the Bay Area lockup, enabling years of sexual misconduct by predatory employees and cover-ups that have largely kept the abuse out of the public eye.” 

Reason reported in 2020 on allegations of three cases of fatal medical neglect at FCI Aliceville, a federal women’s prison in Alabama. The daughters of one woman who died in Aliceville, Hazel McGary, said they had been calling the prison for months trying to get help for their increasingly sick mother.

“They ain’t do nothing,” Kentiesha Kimble told Reason. “They laughed at her. They said she was faking. They told us she was too young to be having a heart attack.”

The Biden administration recently tapped Colette Peters, the former head of the Oregon prison system, to take over leadership of the BOP from outgoing director Michael Carvajal, who faced bipartisan criticism for his refusal to acknowledge the serious problems within his agency.

“These individuals in our care have the right to feel safe when they are incarcerated with us,” Peters told the Associated Press this week. “So we’re going to do everything we can to ensure their safety.”

But civil liberties and prison advocacy groups say an independent ombudsman would add a layer of oversight that has been sorely lacking at the BOP, which has long been a black box of information.

“It’s been said that sunlight is the best disinfectant—and yet our prisons are the darkest places in the nation,” said Families Against Mandatory Minimums President Kevin Ring. “With no meaningful oversight, incarcerated people and correctional officers are not safe, and our elected leaders are not even aware of the problems that need to be fixed. Families with incarcerated loved ones for years have been calling for greater transparency, safety, and accountability from our federal prisons. The bipartisan bill introduced today answers their calls.”

A companion bill to the Federal Prison Oversight Act has been introduced in the House by Reps. Kelly Armstrong (R–N.D.) and Lucy McBath (D–Ga.).

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The Woman King Rewrites History for a Feminist Twist on the Slave Trade


Viola Davis in "The Woman King"

It’s difficult to watch The Woman King and not conclude it’s a masterfully made movie. It has soaring action scenes—the sort that will make you squirm and scream—unconventionally led by a cast of female Amazonian warriors. It has Viola Davis, whose reputation as one of the most formidable actresses alive needs little explanation. And it has a riveting, relevant plot, centered around a kingdom in West Africa that begrudgingly participates in the 19th-century slave trade while it makes moves behind the scenes to hamstring it.

That it’s based on an unbelievable true story should only add to the film’s appeal. Instead, it destroys it.

That’s because the unbelievable true story is truly unbelievable, in that it’s false. The film is indeed based on history. But it’s a revisionist one and not one that can be hand waved away.

The movie takes place in the area that is now southern Benin, known as the Kingdom of Dahomey, which existed from the beginning of the 17th century to the beginning of the 20th. Davis plays Nanisca, the leader of an army called the Agojie composed entirely of women. We see them train and fight and capture people from nearby villages. Their prisoners are then sold to the Oyo Empire, which brokers deals with European slave traders.

But behind the facade we see in battle, Nanisca—loosely based on a real person—is wrought with guilt over enslaving her fellow man and woman. She pleads with King Ghezo, who ruled Dahomey from 1818 to 1859, to withdraw from the trade, suggesting he instead assert economic dominance in the region by relying on the kingdom’s share of palm oil. Epic battles between the Agojie and the Oyo fighters ensue, and (spoiler alert) the (surviving) European slavers are sent packing.

It’s a tale that makes for a compelling, mostly sympathetic watch. But it requires you go into the theater blind, as I did. And it requires that you stay that way—and stay away from Google—after you leave, which I did not.

Absent from the film is that the Kingdom of Dahomey’s success did not hinge on the abolition of slavery. Its demise did, which came about when Great Britain crippled the trade. After Ghezo rebuffed their insistence that he stop buying and selling human beings, the British instituted a naval blockade in the early 1850s, forcing his hand. It was then that he transitioned to heavy reliance on palm oil—not because he wanted to leave the slave trade but in spite of his desire to continue it.

As the movie progresses, viewers watch as the Portuguese—who arrived in Africa to purchase slaves—are vanquished by Davis and company. It’s hard not to cheer when a group of African men, recently freed from bondage, take the European leader Santo Ferreira (played by Hero Fiennes Tiffin) and drown him in shallow water. Missing from the conversation is that Ferreira appears to be based on Francisco Félix de Sousa, who, in reality, helped King Ghezo execute a coup d’etat so the two men could together reinvigorate the slave trade.

Hollywood has often taken liberties in telling historical dramas; this isn’t new. But there’s an important distinction to be made between poetic license and historical revisionism. To portray Dahomey as a kingdom of freedom fighters would be akin to producing a movie about the Confederacy as an anti-slavery republic, starring Robert E. Lee as the primary abolitionist. Society would rightfully reject such a film, at least in today’s day and age.

But The Woman King has received a warm critical reception in reviews from the country’s largest media outlets that fail to reckon with or even mention the historical conflict when evaluating its merits. “Viola Davis reigns supreme,” writes The Washington Post, whose critic adds that whether or not the slave-driven moral quandary “is literally true to life is beside the point.” OK. “She slays,” says The New York Times. The movie is not only “truly inspiring,” says a review on ABC News, but “no white saviors need apply.” The slave trade, but make it feminist.

Such evaluations don’t necessarily land as a surprise. The movie has several elements to please the crowd: fierce female warriors, intersectionality, and racial justice chief among them. “The women are their own greatest weapons, and among everything else it addresses,” the Times writes, “‘The Woman King’ is about strong, dynamic Black women, their souls, minds and bodies.” We are supposed to forget that this kingdom we are glorifying did so via the subjugation and suffering of other black people, which, apart from slavery, included killing thousands upon thousands of their prisoners in human sacrifice rituals each year.

This is the central problem here: The Woman King all but encapsulates the values that take precedence in popular culture. But the producers had to rewrite the history books to get there, because telling a more respectfully-accurate story would’ve required them to buck how we are supposed to talk about such things. Everything must be black and white; there can be no gray. (It is rumored that the actress Lupita Nyong’o, who was originally cast in the film, dropped out over reservations about the historical presentation.)

And yet, such revisionism is not confined to one subject or one political faction. That much is clear in ongoing debates around the history of the Confederacy and its relationship to slavery here in the U.S. I’ve written quite frequently about the need to present such history with precision and to not glorify Confederate military leaders with public monuments, which represent perhaps the largest participation trophies in modern history. But to argue it’s kosher to rewrite history for The Woman King simply because others have unfortunately rewritten history on similar topics is to say that historical integrity doesn’t matter at all. Revisionism isn’t just wrong when done by your ideological foes.

After all, history is best when interrogated and questioned—not sanitized or, in this case, redrafted for the sake of convenience. A great movie would have presented that history in full, likely leaving many viewers exiting the theater unsure of how to feel. In The Woman King, you know how to feel, because you’re told how to feel. It’s decidedly less rewarding than the alternative.

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Short Circuit: A Roundup of Recent Federal Court Decisions

Please enjoy the latest edition of Short Circuit, a weekly feature written by a bunch of people at the Institute for Justice.

New cert petition: Anthony Novak was jailed for four days and prosecuted for making a fake Facebook page satirizing the Parma, Ohio police dept.—an obvious First Amendment violation! And yet the Sixth Circuit granted qualified immunity to the officers involved, so IJ is asking the Supreme Court to step in and settle a deep split among the circuits on what to do when probable cause rests on speech. Or, better yet, the Court could nuke the doctrine of qualified immunity into the sun. Read all about it at Cleveland.com.

  • In 2019, President Trump publicly denied a woman’s accusation that he raped her in a department store changing room in the 90s. She sues him in his personal capacity for defamation, but the feds intervene, seeking to substitute the federal gov’t as the defendant, which would mean the case is toast (since the feds have sovereign immunity in defamation cases). District court: No dice, feds. Second Circuit (over a dissent): Actually, we’d like to ask the D.C. Court of Appeals whether, under D.C. law, the president’s comments to the press were within the scope of his official duties. (If so, this case is toast.)
  • Connecticut police wish to transfer a mentally disturbed inmate to a padded cell. The inmate gets mouthy and learns what happens when you bring words to a baton/K9/taser fight. Second Circuit: Qualified immunity. Dissent (Calabresi, J.): Not only shouldn’t there be qualified immunity in this case, there shouldn’t be qualified immunity in any case.
  • New Jersey highway cops find three plastic bags with heart-shaped candies and arrest the motorist—but do not test the candies for two months. Whoops! They are not drugs. And even knowing that, it takes an additional four months to drop the charges. District court: Could be false arrest and malicious prosecution. No qualified immunity. Third Circuit: And the officers can’t appeal that just yet because the motorist subsequently amended his complaint (at the district court’s invitation), and that’s not interlocutorily appealable.
  • Fort Worth, Tex. officer shoots allegedly unarmed septuagenarian dead after going to wrong home to investigate burglar alarm. Plaintiffs: And the city is liable because of its policies: pairing rookie cops together on the midnight shift, not training officers that odd-numbered and even-numbered houses are on opposite sides of the street, and more. District court: Those things are all too attenuated from the actual shooting. The city is off the hook, but the excessive force claim against the officer can go to a jury. Fifth Circuit (unpublished): Sounds right to us.
  • Last year, Texas officials flagged over 11k registered voters as potential noncitizens. Must the state turn over info identifying these folks in response to a public records request from the ACLU and other groups? District court: Yup, turn over the records. Fifth Circuit: Reversed. The plaintiffs may be entitled to the info, but they haven’t shown how they—as opposed to the public at large—would be injured if it’s withheld. No standing. Judge Ho, concurring: But that should be pretty easy to get around in a subsequent suit and, unlike the rest of the panel, I don’t think it’s gratuitous to say so.
  • Allegation: Texas Justice of the Peace—a former Pentecostal preacher—opens court with a prayer delivered by a local faith leader. During the prayer, the judge scans the audience to see who is participating. Half-hearted participants can expect a surly reception when their case comes up for argument. Fifth Circuit: The evidence of bias is too speculative to support an Establishment Clause violation. Dissent: There’s at least enough to go to a jury.
  • In which Kim Davis—of Kentucky-clerk-cum-marriage-license-denier fame—loses her second bid for qualified immunity in the Sixth Circuit (unpublished). Back the case goes to the district court for a trial on damages, after which Ms. Davis gets to appeal to the Sixth Circuit for a third time.
  • If law enforcement from eight different federal, state, and local agencies ever raid your home (with a warrant), search your place of business (without a warrant), and ignite a flashbang grenade near your sleeping 1-year-old, the Seventh Circuit has some (published and unpublished) advice on how and whether your suit for damages might proceed if, among other odds and ends, the roles and identities of the officers involved is a tad unclear—and irrespective of whether you are now serving a lengthy sentence for drug dealing. (Ethics query: Should the magistrate judge who signed the allegedly defective warrant recuse from these proceedings? Or is it okay because he isn’t making dispositive rulings?)
  • In 1989, the director of the Oregon Dept. of Corrections, who’d been brought in to root out corruption, is murdered at work—stabbed through the heart. A parolee confesses to the murder several times on different days, giving details not publicly known and corroborated by physical evidence. Nevertheless, investigators shift their attention to another man who steadfastly maintains his innocence. No physical evidence ties him to the crime, but he’s barred from introducing evidence of the parolee’s admissions and is convicted on the basis of witness testimony. He’s sentenced to life and spends nearly thirty years in prison before the district court grants habeas and orders him released. Ninth Circuit: Nearly all the witnesses have recanted, claiming they lied because of police misconduct, and it was super unconstitutional to exclude the parolee’s confessions. No reasonable juror would’ve voted to convict with the recantations and other confessions. (Yes, there is a podcast and movie about the crime.)
  • Grants Pass, Ore. has more homeless residents than shelter beds, forcing some homeless to sleep in public spaces. Easy fix, says the town, we’ll just make that illegal. Ninth Circuit: You can’t ticket the involuntarily homeless just for being homeless. Dissent: Even if that’s right, it has to be assessed person by person, not on a class basis.
  • Police seize cash hidden in Las Vegas armed robbery suspect’s attic (in 2014) and then in his mattress (in 2017). But wait! Charges in first matter are thrown out due to prosecutorial misconduct, and he’s never charged with anything to do with the second. (He is, however, convicted of a different armed robbery.) But the gov’t just sits on the cash, a cool $65k, taking none of the steps necessary to civilly, criminally, or administratively forfeit it. Ninth Circuit: Neither the robber nor the gov’t can have it.
  • Does federal law preempt California’s attempt to regulate prisons run for the federal gov’t by private contractors? Ninth Circuit (en banc): Have you read McCulloch v. Maryland? This is not too different from that.
  • Congress authorizes a California dam in 1954 and seems to say it shouldn’t let water go downstream to help the local steelhead. Two decades later Congress passes the Endangered Species Act, which, once the steelhead is listed as endangered, seems to mean that perhaps the dam should do just that. Ninth Circuit: Some expansive language in the original act means it doesn’t contradict the ESA, so back to the district court to work out maybe releasing some more water. Dissent: That’s not what the language says. But if it does it’s nondelegation doctrine time.
  • Without a warrant, Long Lake Twp., Mich. officials repeatedly fly a drone over family’s home, curtilage, and five-acre wooded property, recording in HD. (They discover some old cars that can’t be seen from a public vantage point.) Michigan Court of Appeals: Which is not a problem because the Fourth Amendment only protects against police searches, and this was code enforcement.
  • And in cert grant news, the Michigan Supreme Court will consider whether the state’s civil forfeiture statute authorizes the forfeiture of a vehicle based on Detroit police’s allegations that a nursing student transported—not drugs—but a person who bought and immediately consumed a small amount of drugs in her car. (Not for nothing, but the allegations are applesauce. This is an IJ case.)

In the nearly 10 years since Los Angeles entrepreneur Ryan Crownholm started MySitePlan.com, he’s created over 40,000 informal maps, called site plans, to help people with a huge variety of projects—hotels looking to guide guests from the lobby to their rooms, homeowners and contractors showing local building departments where they’ll build a fence or shed, and much more. Basically anytime someone needs a handy map, MySitePlan.com can make one using publicly available information. But California licensing officials are trying to shut Ryan down because they say he is illegally practicing land surveying. Which is madness. Ryan doesn’t claim to be making the authoritative legal surveys necessary for bigger projects, and no one has ever been confused. Taken literally, the state’s position would mean anytime someone hand-draws a map on a napkin, they’d risk criminal liability. So this week IJ and Ryan filed suit in federal court. Click here to learn more.

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The Grey’s Anatomy Writer Hoax

I had missed this story by Evgenia Peretz when it came out in early May in Vanity Fair (“Scene Stealer: The True Lies of Elisabeth Finch,” Part 1 and Part 2), and only saw it because of this MedPage Today (Emily Dwass) piece (“Was I Conned by a ‘Grey’s  Anatomy‘ Writer? — Her alleged duplicity could make things tougher for female patients”). It’s fascinating and chilling, and a reminder of how even people we’re predisposed to trust are sometimes untrustworthy.

One item, by the way, from the MedPage piece:

I get why no one doubted her cancer journey—who would lie about having a deadly disease? According to Peretz, Finch was given time off from work whenever she requested it to take part in treatments and clinical trials at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota.

What I can’t wrap my head around is why Finch’s colleagues apparently didn’t question the escalating and extreme crises that tormented her. Peretz writes about the string of calamities that afflicted Finch, “some of which she chronicled for the world, some of which she talked about in select company.” There was a doomed pregnancy, a failing kidney, a friend murdered in the Tree of Life synagogue mass shooting (Finch claimed to help clean up the body parts), an abusive brother who attempted suicide. Peretz’s article calls into question whether any of these things actually occurred.

How was it possible that no one at “Grey’s Anatomy” saw these catastrophes as red flags that something was off, and that Finch needed some kind of mental health intervention?

It seems to me the answer is clear: It’s naturally always hard to accuse someone of lying, especially about circumstances to which most people are normally inclined to react with sympathy. But when skepticism and failure to #Believe… is often condemned as a moral failing, who wants to “question”?

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Russia Is Flaring Less And Keeping Natural Gas In The Ground

Russia Is Flaring Less And Keeping Natural Gas In The Ground

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

When the breakup between Russia and the European Union began earlier this year, one of the reasons for the severity of the EU’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the assumption that Russia could not afford for its gas exports to drop.

The assumption was an enduring one for oil and gas both. A number of analysts toured the media, arguing that if production at an oil or gas field is suspended, this field eventually risks becoming unproductive forever.

While this is a valid argument overall, Gazprom appears to have found a way to avoid permanent loss of gas production, and it’s not flaring, either. In fact, flaring in Russia—a major “flarer”—is down.

This is according to satellite data cited by a Bloomberg report on Gazprom’s production, which has declined substantially since the Ukraine invasion and the EU’s response to it.

Total gas production is down by 473 million cubic meters daily since the start of the year, data showed, to a total of 838 million cubic meters daily, but flaring is also down, at least over the past month, by 28 percent from a year ago. And this, according to the analysts Bloomberg talked to, is because Gazprom is simply producing less. And it has been doing it for years.

Because demand for natural gas is highly seasonal in nature, Gazprom has organized production at its biggest fields in such a way as to be able to increase or reduce it in relatively short order.

“Due to the uneven consumption patterns, Gazprom has to change its production significantly on monthly basis every year,” Vyacheslav Kulagin, a department head at the Energy Research Institute in the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Bloomberg.

“Gazprom’s several major upstream projects function like gas cylinders, where the tap is sometimes opened to the full, and sometimes significantly turned down.”

This means that the risk of Gazprom losing production permanently may well be limited. However, it does not change the fact that most supply to Europe is now almost certainly permanently gone after the suspected sabotage of Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2.

This decline in Russian gas imports may be in line with the European Union’s plans to wean itself off Russian gas fully, but it will mean a shortage while the weaning-off process is taking place.

According to a report by Rystad Energy, European countries are in for a gas shortage from next year to 2025 if Russia stops all deliveries of gas to the continent. This would change in the second half of the decade thanks to more LNG imports, but over the short term, LNG would not be able to cover the lost Russian supply.

European decision-makers seem to be aware of this and have started promoting demand reduction as an integral part of energy crisis plans. Earlier this year, the EU agreed on a Commission proposal for a 15-percent reduction in EU-wide gas demand this winter, but that was a voluntary cut. Now, cuts are on their way to being made mandatory, despite higher than usual gas-in-storage levels in most of the EU.

Meanwhile, although exports of natural gas to Europe have been decimated, exports elsewhere made up for the lost market: Gazprom reported earlier this month that total exports outside the Commonwealth of Independent States were down by 37.4 percent in the first eight months of the year and production was down by 14.6 percent.

Production flexibility appears to be a winning demand management tool for a commodity whose demand patterns are highly variable depending on the season. And it seems Gazprom is weathering the blow from losing most of the European market better than Europe would like to see.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/30/2022 – 14:35

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Nomura: When Does The Fed “Blink”?

Nomura: When Does The Fed “Blink”?

The velocity of “things breaking” around the world (Yen, Yuan, Euro, Sterling, SONIA, Gilts, MBS, Lev Loan deals, the entirety of the UK LDI / Pension complex) is obviously a “neon swan” telling us that we are clearly now in the “market accident” stage from the tightening surge.

And, as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott notes, let’s be fair…all of these things are happening for completely rational reasons, particularly for the USD vs lack of viable global alternatives, as the US economy remains the “cleanest dirty shirt” by-far, while rest of world is running increasingly “incongruent” monetary vs fiscal policy on structural issues.

Again, looking at the below generic UK / Europe type set-up, McElligott points out a laundry-list of messy inputs (h/t Jordan Rochester):

  • Collapsing terms of trade / trade-deficits largely due to energy imports

  • Manu / Industrial growth slowing due to high energy / input costs

  • “Hiking into recession” with slower consumer being negatively impact by broad inflation (energy bills, food costs) AND shock-resets on mortgage rates

  • “Demand CONSTRUCTION” policies which feed actually FEED consumption and inflation (energy caps, subsidies, fiscal stim / tax cuts)

And again, all while those central banks are trying to “rage tighten” monetary policy with hot inflation – but against collapsing currencies thanks to the “USD Wrecking Ball”.

And so, authorities are starting to agitate against growing market and economic calamity being caused by the impulse tightening of FCI and the USD Wrecking Ball – which is making the “macro trend trades” which have dictated all thematic performance in 2022 now increasingly open to reversal.

So what will make the Fed “blink”?

The Nomura strategist writes that, outside of trying to project outrageously unpredictable Inflation data, there are two scenarios:

  1. Job losses / Negative NFPs – currently, labor mkt tightness and wage growth at all-time highs gives Fed room to hit the economy HARDER, bc a hot jobs mkt gives you room to crunch it—so the Fed will keep hiking into postive NFP prints; but my view has continued to be that the first time you print a negative NFP, the market will immediately interpret it as a counter-intuitive “constructive” signal for Equities, because this allows for a Fed pivot back towards “dual mandate” (from current solo focus on inflation) which means they can “move the goalposts” – ESPECIALLY as “job losses” then becomes a political feature / issue

  2. Credit Market “freeze,” as Corp access to Capital Markets dries-up (note: this is NOT necessarily then about some absolute Spread level of say HY)—if FCI tightening and / or market Vol hits such an extent that BBBs can’t do debt deals…then the Fed will make a move; watching Lev Loans- and / or CLO- markets as most reasonable spots for an “issue” due to floating-rate nature of the products.

Are we starting to see any signs of this anticipation of a Fed Pivot?

Turning to tactical Equities / Vol – yesterday was the first day in four where we saw some normalization in the recent blast of Vol / Skew / Crash outperformance vs Spot Index,despite the seemingly big “down day”—with a resumption of fairly aggressive “monetization of downside” flows in Equities index / ETF options.

And this segues nicely into today’s quarterly rebalance of the large client SPX Put Spread Collar, which tends to exhibit tremendous market impact on hype alone…but for many of the past year and a half’s rebal cycles, has indeed marked local market inflection points. Per the desk Put Spread Collar update:

The SPX Sept 30th 3020/3580/4005 Put Spread Collar (cust long the Sep 30th PM 3580/3020 Put Spreads vs. short the Sep 30th PM 4005 Calls) is expected to be rolled at some point today. The gamma on the SPX Sep 30th PM 3580 Put was ~$2.3B as of last night’s close, so dealers/market makers are broadly welcoming this morning’s de minimis move in futures. Based on last night’s closing level, the expectation is that the investor will roll into something like a a new SPX Dec 30th 2910/3460/3800 Put Spread Collar ~46,000x, which will create ~$16.8M of vega supply in that Dec 30th bucket (along with a fair amount of downside skew via that Dec 30th 2910 Put). The structure has ~$7B of net delta to sell as it currently stands on the MOC, though in the past we have seen this structure trade with a 1-day option (would sell a Sep 30th ITM call for example) so that the delta impact comes on the close as opposed to intra-day”

McElligott’s point is that with the recent “bid” to Vol / Skew that it is looking “rich” again (as an entry point then for it to fade from) – and yes, with a likelihood that the end of day Equities MOC imbalance could be a disasterously huge “$7B FOR SALE” print that frightens the mkt….i actually kinda think it sets up for a potential relief trade thereafter next week or even into / around Oct Op-Ex, because Dealers are getting a BUNCH of Vega and Gamma back, as well as picking up some big downside Skew…IF WE CAN AVOID A MELTDOWN TO THE 3580 STRIKE FIRST.

I think all of this sets-up for a short-term tactical dynamic where Equities implied Vol could come off the recent squeeze higher and begin fading again next week, which then along with the reduced “Short Gamma” dynamic, but against so much “Negative $Delta”…could allow for Equities “relief” as iVol softens further with Dealers in a much “cleaner” place from an Options market perspective.

Interestingly, the team at SpotGamma note a similar tactical dynamic as today’s put expiration is enough to give equities a bump, and that could lead to a rapid decline in implied volatility. So, we have puts deltas coming off due to expiration, but also vanna. Shown below is the VIX which has hit recent highs – but note too the movement of the TDEX “Tail Risk” index. There was a sharp move in this metric over the last week which tells us that traders were buying deep out of the money puts.

On a rally this stuff could get smoked, and could help generate a ~5% equity rally rather quickly.

But SpotGamma warns, the macro risks in this environment are massive, an its the perfect environment for something to snap and lead to limit down style moves. This is why we favor playing rallies in call positions with fixed risk. Second, this view of a rally is based on positional analysis, nothing fundamental.

Because we are in a put-heavy environment with high volatility rallies should be treated as very unstable and subject to rapid reversal. Think CPI crash, or even yesterdays reversal from 3940 Wed closing to 3910 Thursday lows. Those were 3-5% rallies which retraced in hours.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/30/2022 – 14:15

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Bill Introduced To Bring Independent Oversight to Federal Prison System


prison cells

Legislation was introduced this week in Congress that would bring independent oversight to the beleaguered federal prison system.

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D–Ga.), Sen. Mike Braun (R–Ind.), and Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D–Ill.) introduced the Federal Prison Oversight Act on Wednesday. The bill would require the Department of Justice’s Inspector General to conduct detailed inspections of each of the Bureau of Prisons’ 122 facilities and, more significantly, create an independent Justice Department ombudsman to investigate complaints.

The legislation comes on the heels of a bipartisan investigation by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations into widespread corruption and abuse at a federal prison complex in Atlanta. Congressional investigators found that senior leadership at both the complex and the Bureau of Prisons (BOP) had been aware of the problems for years but failed to act.

“My 10-month bipartisan investigation of corruption, abuse, and misconduct in the Federal prison system revealed an urgent need to overhaul federal prison oversight,” Ossoff said in a press release. “I am bringing Democrats and Republicans together to crack down on corruption, strengthen public safety, and protect civil rights.”

The federal prison system has been in a state of turmoil for several years now, racked by chronic staff shortages, embarrassing lapses in safety and security—such as the in-custody deaths of disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein and Boston mobster Whitey Bulger—and a cover-up culture that shields misbehaving officials from consequences and retaliates against whistleblowers.

In February, an investigation by the Associated Press into FCI Dublin, a federal women’s prison in California, found “a permissive and toxic culture at the Bay Area lockup, enabling years of sexual misconduct by predatory employees and cover-ups that have largely kept the abuse out of the public eye.” 

Reason reported in 2020 on allegations of three cases of fatal medical neglect at FCI Aliceville, a federal women’s prison in Alabama. The daughters of one woman who died in Aliceville, Hazel McGary, said they had been calling the prison for months trying to get help for their increasingly sick mother.

“They ain’t do nothing,” Kentiesha Kimble told Reason. “They laughed at her. They said she was faking. They told us she was too young to be having a heart attack.”

The Biden administration recently tapped Colette Peters, the former head of the Oregon prison system, to take over leadership of the BOP from outgoing director Michael Carvajal, who faced bipartisan criticism for his refusal to acknowledge the serious problems within his agency.

“These individuals in our care have the right to feel safe when they are incarcerated with us,” Peters told the Associated Press this week. “So we’re going to do everything we can to ensure their safety.”

But civil liberties and prison advocacy groups say an independent ombudsman would add a layer of oversight that has been sorely lacking at the BOP, which has long been a black box of information.

“It’s been said that sunlight is the best disinfectant—and yet our prisons are the darkest places in the nation,” said Families Against Mandatory Minimums President Kevin Ring. “With no meaningful oversight, incarcerated people and correctional officers are not safe, and our elected leaders are not even aware of the problems that need to be fixed. Families with incarcerated loved ones for years have been calling for greater transparency, safety, and accountability from our federal prisons. The bipartisan bill introduced today answers their calls.”

A companion bill to the Federal Prison Oversight Act has been introduced in the House by Reps. Kelly Armstrong (R–N.D.) and Lucy McBath (D–Ga.).

The post Bill Introduced To Bring Independent Oversight to Federal Prison System appeared first on Reason.com.

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Teenage Girl Killed in Police Shootout With Her Dad in California Desert


Anthony and Savannah Graziano

In a complicated turn of events, a teenage girl who California law enforcement thought had been kidnapped by her father was killed in a shootout between deputies and her father. Now the state attorney general’s office is investigating what exactly happened.

On Monday, a woman named Tracy Martinez was shot and killed in Fontana, California. The suspect in the shooting was Anthony John Graziano, her husband, who then went on the run. The two of them had a 15-year-old daughter, Savannah. Officials worried that Graziano had kidnapped Savannah and put out an Amber Alert looking for her.

San Bernardino County sheriff’s deputies found Graziano driving in his pickup truck on highways between Los Angeles and Las Vegas in the Mojave Desert on Tuesday. The deputies gave chase. According to police and news reports, deputies pursued Graziano for 70 miles, with Graziano shooting at them at times, reportedly disabling one of the patrol cars.

Deputies finally managed to contain Graziano on an offramp near the town of Hesperia, and a massive gunfight followed (some of which was captured by bystanders on video). At some point, Savannah jumped out of the truck and ran toward deputies. She was shot and killed. (At this point, it’s not clear whether she was shot by deputies or her father.) Graziano was also killed in the shootout.

When the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department first discussed what went down, Sheriff Shannon Dicus said Savannah was wearing body armor and a tactical helmet. “Evidence suggests that Savannah Graziano was also a participant in shooting at our deputies,” Dicus said. He did not at the time get into detail about what that meant or whether she was armed when deputies shot her. Nevertheless, Dicus’ suggestion was treated as credible.

Then, L.A.’s ABC7 tweeted that she “shot at deputies before she was killed in a highway shootout between her father—a fugitive wanted in the death of the teen’s mother—and law enforcement.” This is not what Dicus said. While Dicus was irresponsible for presenting vague information as “evidence” at a press conference, ABC7 compounded the problem by presenting something under investigation as fact.

The latest reports now show that Savannah was likely unarmed at the time that she was killed. After the state attorney general’s office took over the investigation of the shooting, it found that the only weapon on the crime scene was an AR-15 recovered in the truck, which is where Graziano was killed.

The sheriff’s department is no longer answering questions, directing media to the state attorney general’s office for the investigation, according to the L.A. Times. ABC7’s irresponsible and inaccurate tweet is still up, and now the news that Savannah was likely not armed is being described by them as a “stunning new twist.”

The story is turning out even more complicated. It’s not clear anymore whether Savannah was a kidnapping victim at all. Videos and eyewitness testimony from the scene of the mother’s killing show that Savannah was there in the back seat of the truck when Graziano shot Martinez. This doesn’t necessarily mean she was there voluntarily or was an accomplice (as the sheriff was suggesting). But at the time of the chase, authorities thought Graziano picked up and kidnapped his daughter after shooting Martinez, and that’s apparently not the case. Savannah had been living with her father as the couple went through a divorce.

All we do know is that an unarmed teenage girl was shot and killed as she jumped out of a truck and ran toward deputies. The sheriff then spoke vaguely about what might have happened, suggesting that the girl may have been a threat, and some media outlets treated that presumption as fact. Media outlets really, really need to stop doing that.

The post Teenage Girl Killed in Police Shootout With Her Dad in California Desert appeared first on Reason.com.

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Teenage Girl Killed in Police Shootout With Her Dad in California Desert


Anthony and Savannah Graziano

In a complicated turn of events, a teenage girl who California law enforcement thought had been kidnapped by her father was killed in a shootout between deputies and her father. Now the state attorney general’s office is investigating what exactly happened.

On Monday, a woman named Tracy Martinez was shot and killed in Fontana, California. The suspect in the shooting was Anthony John Graziano, her husband, who then went on the run. The two of them had a 15-year-old daughter, Savannah. Officials worried that Graziano had kidnapped Savannah and put out an Amber Alert looking for her.

San Bernardino County sheriff’s deputies found Graziano driving in his pickup truck on highways between Los Angeles and Las Vegas in the Mojave Desert on Tuesday. The deputies gave chase. According to police and news reports, deputies pursued Graziano for 70 miles, with Graziano shooting at them at times, reportedly disabling one of the patrol cars.

Deputies finally managed to contain Graziano on an offramp near the town of Hesperia, and a massive gunfight followed (some of which was captured by bystanders on video). At some point, Savannah jumped out of the truck and ran toward deputies. She was shot and killed. (At this point, it’s not clear whether she was shot by deputies or her father.) Graziano was also killed in the shootout.

When the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department first discussed what went down, Sheriff Shannon Dicus said Savannah was wearing body armor and a tactical helmet.  “Evidence suggests that Savannah Graziano was also a participant in shooting at our deputies,” Dicus said. He did not at the time get into detail about what that meant or whether she was armed when deputies shot her. Nevertheless, Dicus’ suggestion was treated as credible.

Then, L.A.’s ABC7 tweeted that she “shot at deputies before she was killed in a highway shootout between her father—a fugitive wanted in the death of the teen’s mother—and law enforcement.” This is not what Dicus said. While Dicus was irresponsible for presenting vague information as “evidence” at a press conference, ABC7 compounded the problem by presenting something under investigation as fact.

The latest reports now show that Savannah was likely unarmed at the time that she was killed. After the state attorney general’s office took over the investigation of the shooting, it found that the only weapon on the crime scene was an AR-15 recovered in the truck, which is where Graziano was killed.

The sheriff’s department is no longer answering questions, directing media to the state attorney general’s office for the investigation, according to the L.A. Times. ABC7’s irresponsible and inaccurate tweet is still up, and now the news that Savannah was likely not armed is being described by them as a “stunning new twist.”

The story is turning out even more complicated. It’s not clear anymore whether Savannah was a kidnapping victim at all. Videos and eyewitness testimony from the scene of the mother’s killing show that Savannah was there in the back seat of the truck when Graziano shot Martinez. This doesn’t necessarily mean she was there voluntarily or was an accomplice (as the sheriff was suggesting). But at the time of the chase, authorities thought Graziano picked up and kidnapped his daughter after shooting Martinez, and that’s apparently not the case. Savannah had been living with her father as the couple went through a divorce.

All we do know is that an unarmed teenage girl was shot and killed as she jumped out of a truck and ran toward deputies. The sheriff then spoke vaguely about what might have happened, suggesting that the girl may have been a threat, and some media outlets treated that presumption as fact. Media outlets really, really need to stop doing that.

The post Teenage Girl Killed in Police Shootout With Her Dad in California Desert appeared first on Reason.com.

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“That’s Just Wild”: CNN Eagerly Reports Ginni Thomas Remains Unrepentant On The 2020 Election

“That’s Just Wild”: CNN Eagerly Reports Ginni Thomas Remains Unrepentant On The 2020 Election

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We have previously discussed the calls of figures like Rep. Adam Schiff and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse to investigate Ginni Thomas, the wife of Associate Justice Clarence Thomas. I have expressed great concern over the calling of a spouse of a sitting justice who is among millions of Americans who believed that the 2020 election was stolen. I am not among them but Thomas has every right to that belief and to advocate for actions in light of that belief. Yet, the Jan. 6 House Select Committee thrilled many on the left by demanding that she appear and answer for her advocacy.

Now the media is breathlessly reporting that “Ginni Thomas tells Jan. 6 panel she still believes false election fraud claims,” as if it were a public confession of a reactionary resisting reeducation.  On CNN, anchor Jake Tapper declared to viewers that Thomas has not changed her mind and remains “untethered from all of the facts and evidence.”

One can seriously question whether that is news but it is certainly satisfying as a congressional committee pulls in the spouse of a conservative justice to grill her for four hours on being a MAGA Republican who called for challenges to the 2020 election. None of the media even raised the question of whether such interviews could be viewed as harassment or pressure on a member of the Supreme Court. I understand that the Committee made this news by pursuing Thomas, but a balanced treatment would have at least raised the question of why she has been singled out over her advocacy.

The House’s Jan. 6 committee won an 8-1 victory before the Supreme Court, which correctly rejected Trump’s privilege objections to the release of White House materials. The sole dissenting vote was cast by Thomas. That raised a question of a conflict of interest that we have previously discussed given Ginni Thomas’ messages to the White House.

There is a legitimate concern over Justice Thomas voting on the case, given the interests of his wife. However, the Thomas messages were reportedly already disclosed. As the the New Yorker reported “Meadows had already turned over to the congressional committee some 2,300 texts — and … they included the 29-message exchange between him and Ginni Thomas.” The focus of her appearance, however, was any role in the January 6th riot.

Select committee chair Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) left the voluntary interview with the Committee to report, according to Politico, “she still believes false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from former President Donald Trump.”

Ok, so what? Millions of people hold the same view. They have a right to hold that view. There was never any evidence that Thomas participated in any violence and had simply encouraged White House and other officials to challenge the election.

A well-known Republican activist and Trump supporter, Thomas encouraged then-White House chief of staff Mark Meadows to pursue legal and legislative challenges to what she viewed as a stolen election. The reason that Ginni Thomas’ messages were seized is not because she was a key figure in the investigation but that the Commission has demanded any messages that deal with such challenges or the rally — a scope that has been criticized as overbroad. Congress then leaked the messages and the media did the rest.

There is no evidence that Ginni Thomas ever encouraged violence or was even present at the Capitol during the riot. Thomas said that she attended the Ellipse rally on Jan. 6 but left early, before Trump spoke, and never went to the Capitol.

The challenge to the 2020 election was no surprise. Indeed, not long after the election, I wrote about that possibility in what I called the “Death Star strategy.” It is not a crime to plan such a challenge, even without good cause.

It was the same course taken by Democrats without any outcry from the media in challenging Republican presidents.

When Sen. Barbara Boxer launched her own challenge to President Bush on this law, Speaker Nancy Pelosi praised her challenge as “witnessing Democracy at work. This isn’t as some of our Republican colleagues have referred to it, sadly, as frivolous. This debate is fundamental to our democracy.” Joining her in that challenge was Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), who now chairs the committee looking into the Jan. 6th riot, challenged the election of George W. Bush. (Fellow Committee member Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) sought to challenge Trump’s certification in 2016).

Yet, various media outlets were quick to report that Thomas remains unreformed and unapologetic in holding these opposing views. The satisfaction in forcing the wife of Clarence Thomas to appear for hours of examination is deeply disturbing. Thomas is hated by the left and that hatred seemed to drive much of this effort.

If there was a single piece of evidence showing that Ginni Thomas engaged in violence or called for violence, it might be a different question (though others who engaged in such crimes were not called to account before the Select Committee). The only evidence, however, was that this longtime Republican advocate engaged in political advocacy in opposing the certification. Her position in these emails was consistent with her public positions.

Yet, reporter Jamie Gangel went to CNN and reported, while Thomas cooperated, “Chairman Bennie Thompson has also told reporters that she still believes the election was stolen, Jake. So after everything we know, Ginni Thomas is still an election denier.” Tapper responded “That’s just wild. I mean, that’s just untethered from all of the facts and evidence.”

What’s “wild” is that coverage has taken on a reeducation element that it is now news that the wife of a jurist is unrepentant and unreformed.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/30/2022 – 13:55

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