Sending Secret Police to Do Protester Snatch-n-Grabs Is Bad, Mmmkay?

NavyDude

“It’s nice,” Elizabeth Nolan Brown wrote this morning in a long piece about the federal police crackdown in Portland, Oregon, “to see some lawmakers actually attempting to use their power to stop this, instead of simply trying to score Twitter points with spurious allegations that libertarians aren’t freaking out enough.”

That hyperlink takes you to this tweet, from Sen. Brian Schatz (D–Hawaii).

The senator’s legislative track record on the relevant issues certainly contains some schatz of its own (on which there will be a story here that I will hyperlink), but on today’s Reason Roundtable podcast, Nick Gillespie, Katherine Mangu-Ward, Peter Suderman, and Matt Welch do their level best to unpack the legality and propriety of local and federal government action (and sometimes inaction) regarding street scuffles and property destruction, and how the White House is reportedly poised to roll out Portland-style intervention across several American cities.

The team also breaks down the latest breakdowns of how federal Coronavirus responses broke down, tiptoe into the mask-policy wars, and build extended metaphors out of the movie Brazil.

Audio production by Ian Keyser and Regan Taylor.

Music: “Fog Mist” by TrackTribe

Relevant links from the show:

Feds Send Outside Agitators To Escalate Conflict in Portland,” by Elizabeth Nolan Brown

What’s Happening in Portland?” by Jonathan H. Adler

ACLU Sues Federal Agents Deployed in Portland,” by C.J. Ciaramella

Disturbing Reports from Portland,” by Keith E. Whittington

Homeland Security Acting Like ‘An Occupying Army’ Says Sen. Wyden, After Federal Agents Shoot Peaceful Portland Protester,” by Elizabeth Nolan Brown

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp Is Suing Atlanta’s Mayor Over the City’s Mask Mandate. Good,” by Christian Britschgi

Andrew Cuomo’s Coronavirus Response Has Been a Failure,” by Billy Binion

What State and Local Governments Can Learn From the Coronavirus Crisis,” by Veronique de Rugy

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2ZMDEYM
via IFTTT

Department of Homeland Security Reportedly Sending 150 Agents to Chicago in Expansion of Federal Crackdown

fed-riot-cops

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) intends to send around 150 federal agents to Chicago, the Chicago Tribune reported today. The plan is an escalation of the Trump administration’s efforts to crack down on protests and unrest in major U.S. cities.

The planned deployment comes amid national backlash over the use of federal agents in Portland, Oregon, where news reports and videos have shown the feds beating a nonviolent Navy veteran, shooting an unarmed protester in the face with an impact weapon, and using unmarked vehicles to snatch protesters off the street. Last night, federal agents tear- gassed a crowd of moms.

Camouflaged agents from Customs and Border Protection and the U.S. Marshals Service have been deployed to Portland—where protests and unrest over the police killing of George Floyd have been happening for more than 50 days—under a June 26 executive order to protect federal monuments and property. The Trump administration claims it is protecting the city’s federal courthouse and other property from “lawless anarchists” who have vandalized and attacked the building.

In a news conference this morning, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot said she spoke with Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler on Sunday “to get a sense of what’s happened there.”

“We don’t need federal agents without any insignia taking people off the street and holding them I think unlawfully,” Lightfoot said.

Federal agents’ strong-arm tactics in Portland have led to a flurry of lawsuits, investigations, and demands for investigations from state and local officials. Colleen Connell, head of the Illinois branch of the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), warned that similar problems will arise in Chicago.

“Make no mistake: Trump’s federal troops will not be a constructive force in Chicago,” Connell said in a press release. “As our colleagues have seen in Portland, Trump’s secret forces will terrorize communities, and create chaos. This is not law and order. This is an assault on the people of this country, and the specific protections of protest and press in the First Amendment.”

The ACLU of Oregon sought a temporary restraining order last week against federal agents stationed in Portland, in what it says is the first of many lawsuits.

Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum announced Sunday that she is suing DHS, the U.S. Marshals Service, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, and the Federal Protection Service, alleging that “they seized and detained Oregonians without probable cause.”

The U.S. attorney for the District of Oregon—Billy Williams, a Trump appointee—has called for an inspector general to investigate the agents’ actions.

Oregon’s Democratic senators, Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley, say they’ll be introducing an amendment to a defense bill to stop the Trump administration “from sending its paramilitary squads onto America’s streets.”

Sen. Rand Paul (R–Ky.) also criticized the use of federal agents.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D–N.Y.) and Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton (D–D.C.) will also be introducing legislation this week that would require federal law enforcement officials to clearly identify themselves, The Nation reported today.

DHS did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this story. But in an interview on Fox News this morning, Acting DHS Secretary Chad Wolf said, “I don’t need invitations by the state, state mayors, or state governors to do our job. We’re going to do that, whether they like us there or not.”

Trump also indicated in a White House interview today that his administration may send federal agents to many more U.S. cities.

“We’re not going to let New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Baltimore—Oakland is a mess—we’re not going to let this happen in our country,” Trump said. “More federal law enforcement, that I can tell you.”

“In Portland, they’ve done a fantastic job,” Trump continued. “These are anarchists. These aren’t protesters. These are people that hate our country, and we’re not going to let it go forward.”

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/32BG2U9
via IFTTT

Why does the Supreme Court use different language for remands to state court and federal court?

Last week, I blogged about a persnickety question that Supreme Court practitioners often litigate: when does a Supreme Court judgment become effect. In this post I will raise another curiosity of Supreme Court practice: the Justices use different language when a case is remanded to state court and federal court.

Consider the language used this term in Espinoza v. Montana Department of Revenue. This case reversed the decision of the Montana Supreme Court. The opinion concluded:

The judgment of the Montana Supreme Court is reversed, and the case is remanded for further proceedings not inconsistent with this opinion.

Contrast that language with the conclusion in Liu v. SEC. This case reversed a decision from the Ninth Circuit:

For the foregoing reasons, we vacate the judgment below and remand the case to the Ninth Circuit for further proceedings consistent with this opinion.

State decisions are “remanded for further proceedings not inconsistent with this opinion.” Federal decisions are remanded for “further proceedings consistent with this opinion.” The former language seems stricter than the latter language. Perhaps the Court wishes to give the state courts more leeway in implementing a Supreme Court decision. Federal courts, in contrast, have less latitude to implement a Supreme Court decision.

I don’t know how or when this practice arose. But it seems to subtly account for basic principles of federalism. Of course, under Martin v. Hunter’s Lessee, state courts are bound by the Supreme Court’s judgments. At least the Justices can be nice about it.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2OGCBDz
via IFTTT

Do “People Who Are Black Have Strong Historical and Cultural Commonalities” Regardless of Where They are from and Where They Live?

The AP explains why it is capitalizing “black” but not “white” when referring to people’s “race.”

There was clear desire and reason to capitalize Black. Most notably, people who are Black have strong historical and cultural commonalities, even if they are from different parts of the world and even if they now live in different parts of the world.

Nonsense. What do a Christian Kenyan, a Muslim Nigerian, a Rwandan Tutsi, an Ethiopian Jew living in Israel, an African-American of partial Native American and European heritage, and an Afro-Brazilian of mixed Portuguese and African descent have in common, culturally and historically? The correct answer is nothing. The only thing they have in common is ancestral roots in Africa, and dark skin.

With regard to whites, the AP continues:

White people generally do not share the same history and culture, or the experience of being discriminated against because of skin color. In addition, we are a global news organization and in much of the world there is considerable disagreement, ambiguity and confusion about whom the term includes.

There is, it’s true, ambiguity and disagreement about what “white” means. But that’s true of “black” as well. People deemed “black” in the U.S. are mostly of mixed ancestral origin, and would be called something else in other countries, including South Africa and Brazil. Researchers found that in one country, what we call “African American” or “black” in the U.S. has twenty-eight different names. Frederick Zhang & Joseph Finkelstein, Inconsistency in Race and Ethnic Classification in Pharmacogenetics Studies and its Potential Clinical Implications, 12 Pharmacogenomics Perspectives in Medicine 107 (2019).

Mizrahi Jews in Israel are sometimes called “blacks.” North Africans and Middle Easterners are often called (and call themselves) “black” in the UK. Should aboriginal Australians be referred to as “blacks?” Should Americans with one black and one non-black parent be called “black” or “multiracial?” Is Tiger Woods “black”?

I don’t have a strong opinion on capitalizing black or not. In the American context, the reason to capitalize is to make it akin to other ethnic groups, but that rationale has largely been supplanted by the popularity of African American. But regardless of how one feels about the issue, the AP’s claims that all people of African descent have historical and cultural commonalities is, dare I say it, racist, creating phony commonalities based on “race.” And the claim that “globally,” the scope of “white” is ambiguous but the scope of “black” is clear, is risible.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/3fMDWEB
via IFTTT

Sending Secret Police to Do Protester Snatch-n-Grabs Is Bad, Mmmkay?

NavyDude

“It’s nice,” Elizabeth Nolan Brown wrote this morning in a long piece about the federal police crackdown in Portland, Oregon, “to see some lawmakers actually attempting to use their power to stop this, instead of simply trying to score Twitter points with spurious allegations that libertarians aren’t freaking out enough.”

That hyperlink takes you to this tweet, from Sen. Brian Schatz (D–Hawaii).

The senator’s legislative track record on the relevant issues certainly contains some schatz of its own (on which there will be a story here that I will hyperlink), but on today’s Reason Roundtable podcast, Nick Gillespie, Katherine Mangu-Ward, Peter Suderman, and Matt Welch do their level best to unpack the legality and propriety of local and federal government action (and sometimes inaction) regarding street scuffles and property destruction, and how the White House is reportedly poised to roll out Portland-style intervention across several American cities.

The team also breaks down the latest breakdowns of how federal Coronavirus responses broke down, tiptoe into the mask-policy wars, and build extended metaphors out of the movie Brazil.

Audio production by Ian Keyser and Regan Taylor.

Music: “Fog Mist” by TrackTribe

Relevant links from the show:

Feds Send Outside Agitators To Escalate Conflict in Portland,” by Elizabeth Nolan Brown

What’s Happening in Portland?” by Jonathan H. Adler

ACLU Sues Federal Agents Deployed in Portland,” by C.J. Ciaramella

Disturbing Reports from Portland,” by Keith E. Whittington

Homeland Security Acting Like ‘An Occupying Army’ Says Sen. Wyden, After Federal Agents Shoot Peaceful Portland Protester,” by Elizabeth Nolan Brown

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp Is Suing Atlanta’s Mayor Over the City’s Mask Mandate. Good,” by Christian Britschgi

Andrew Cuomo’s Coronavirus Response Has Been a Failure,” by Billy Binion

What State and Local Governments Can Learn From the Coronavirus Crisis,” by Veronique de Rugy

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2ZMDEYM
via IFTTT

John Lewis Was an American Hero Who Battled State Racism

evhistorypix011882

When John Lewis accepted the National Book Award in 2016 for a memoir about his time as a leader of the civil rights movement, he tearfully recalled that as a teenager in 1956 he was denied a library card. The library, he and his friends were told, was for whites only.

It’s a poignant moment, but it’s also a powerful reminder that, less than the span of one lifetime ago, racism in America was an institutionalized status quo enforced by governmental power to a degree that feels unthinkable today. Public libraries, public schools, public transit, and more were segregated as a matter of public policy. Challenging the fundamental injustice of those laws and institutions meant literally facing down the authority of the state.

Not being able to get a library card was only a small part of it. Lewis was jailed for more than a month in Mississippi in 1961 for the “crime” of using a public restroom marked “whites only”—one of more than 40 arrests during his lifetime. He had his skull fractured by a police officer during the violent break-up of a peaceful protest in Selma, Alabama, in 1965. That confrontation produced one of the iconic images of the civil rights era: Lewis, standing stoically with his hands stuffed in the pockets of his trenchcoat as police officers approach, batons in hand.

Lewis, who died on Friday at the age of 80, was a Democratic congressman from Georgia for the final 33 years of his life. But his greatest accomplishments came when he was a political outsider. As one of the youngest leaders of the civil rights movement, Lewis spoke powerfully against government-sanctioned injustice—and suffered for exercising his right to speak. He and his peers may not have eradicated racism from America, but they undoubtedly made the country a more free, more just place.

Indeed, Lewis’ life stands as a testament to the power of free speech and peaceful agitation as tools for creating progress within a democratic system. “I got in trouble. Good trouble. Necessary trouble,” Lewis remarked in 2013.

Lewis was living proof that such progress was possible without violence and without tearing down America’s foundations. He went from being a kid who couldn’t get a library card because of government-imposed racism to being a 17-term congressman who served alongside America’s first black president. In 2015, he was honored by President Barack Obama in a ceremony that took place on the very bridge where Lewis once had his head bashed in by a police officer.

“The Civil Rights Movement…did more to advance freedom within the United States than any other movement in the past century,” wrote Michael Cannon, director of health policy studies at the Cato Institute, in January, shortly after Lewis was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Lewis, he wrote, advanced human liberty “in his campaigns for individual rights, his advocacy for freedom in moral terms, his commitment to peaceful protest”; he helped expand everyone’s freedom “to speak, protest, vote, work, exchange, travel, and marry and procreate with African‐​Americans.”

His legacy is particularly important at the current moment, when debates over the role of racism—particularly when it is institutionalized within the criminal justice system—and the proper response to it are again at the forefront of American politics.

Lewis left no doubt where he stood on that. In one of his final interviews, he told The Washington Post‘s Jonathan Capehart that he was “inspired” by the peaceful protests against police brutality that have erupted this year—and that he viewed the militaristic response encouraged by President Donald Trump and some other officials as “a disgrace” that was “not in keeping with the best of America.”

This year has made it more clear, in ways both obvious and subtle, that Americans still have work to do to force their governments to live up to the promise of legal equality. But the widespread, institutionalized, overt segregation that Lewis experienced as a young man seems foreign and dystopian to most people living in America today. As it should.

For that, we should never forget Lewis and his peers, who spoke, worked, and bled to make America a more free and just nation.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/3jqBHJm
via IFTTT

New York Democrats Want To Tax Stock Trades As State Revenues Plummet

New York Democrats Want To Tax Stock Trades As State Revenues Plummet

Tyler Durden

Mon, 07/20/2020 – 15:12

New York Democrats seem hell bent on driving as many people out of the state as possible. Not only has Mayor Bill de Blasio essentially turned New York City into a demilitarized zone by pulling back on policing, but there are now talk about resurrecting the state’s tax on stock trades. It’s no wonder thousands of hedge fund managers are leaving the city for far more hospitable places like Florida.

Legislators could be prompted to make changes as the state loses approximately 20% of its revenue, which would leave a $61 billion deficit over four years according to Bloomberg. Progressive democrats “are on the ascent” in the state’s legislature while, at the same time, stock trading in the state is on the rise. As a result, the progressives smell blood, as taxing these trades could raise $13 billion per year and stop cuts to numerous government services.

Andrew Silverman, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst said: “If ever there was an opportune moment for New York to resurrect its stock transfer tax, it’s now. The state legislature is probably more amenable now than at any time in decades.” The stock transfer tax could drive revenue from outside of the state, as well, as it taxes trades that occur in New York, even if the person directing the trade is out of state. 

About 100 members of the 213 members of the New York legislature signed a letter last month suggesting that the state consider raising taxes on the rich before it cuts spending. Democrats have also proposed raising taxes on billionaires and large corporations. There is currently a 100% rebate on the tax that has been in place since 1981 when the New York Stock Exchange threatened to leave New York.

We’re not sure why politicians think that couldn’t happen again. After all, they are asking for it.

The left’s argument for the tax is that in 2016, the wealthiest 10% of Americans owned 84% of stocks. The author of the study that determined this, Edward Wolff, said: “Every single significant exchange in the world has a financial transaction tax save one, which is Germany, and they’ve proposed it there. Is the London Stock Exchange out of business? Have they moved to Dublin?”

The proposed bill is arguing for a 1.25 cent tax on the sale of stock worth $5 or less and a tax of up to 5 cents for stock worth over $20 per share. The revenue would go to New York’s general fund for three years and then would go to infrastructure and the MTA.

The tax would (obviously) find heavy opposition from banks and Wall Street firms. Wall Street is already responsible for 17% of the state’s tax revenue and 181,200 jobs.

The risk of unintended consequences is not daunting Democrats: Freeman Klopott, a spokesman for Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo’s budget office, concluded: “In the digital age it would be even easier for transactions to simply be moved out of state to avoid the tax.”

What the democrats don’t seem to understand is that much of this legacy tax revenue – and the jobs that create it – could be at risk as they continue to push businesses out of the state with additional taxes. And what’s the point of a new tax when it is offset by a mass exodus of the the states’ biggest taxpayers, resulting in a far more dire fiscal outcome?

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3hi9BOM Tyler Durden

Brown Weeds, Not Green Shoots

Brown Weeds, Not Green Shoots

Tyler Durden

Mon, 07/20/2020 – 14:52

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

Remember “green shoots?”

That was the ubiquitous phrase used by White House officials and TV talking heads in 2009 to describe how the U.S. economy was coming back to life after the 2008 global financial crisis.

The problem was we did not get green shoots, we got brown weeds.

The economy did recover but it was the slowest recovery in U.S. history. After the green shoots theory had been discredited, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner promised a “recovery summer” in 2010.

That didn’t happen either.

The recovery did continue, but it took years for the stock market to return to the 2017 highs and even longer for unemployment to come down to levels that could be regarded as close to full employment.

Now, in the aftermath of the 2020 pandemic and market crash, the same voices are at it again.

The White House is talking about “pent-up demand” as the economy reopens and consumers flock to stores and restaurants to make up for the lost spending during the March to July pandemic lockdown.

But, the data shows that the “pent-up demand” theory is just as much of a mirage as the green shoots.

Many of the businesses that closed have failed in the meantime. They will never reopen and those lost jobs are never coming back. Even people who kept their jobs are not spending like it’s 2019.

Instead they’re saving at record levels.

Even the “reopening” of the economy is now in doubt. In some cities, the reopening was derailed by riots that left shopping districts in ruins.

In other cities, the reopening was stopped in its tracks by new outbreaks of the virus that led to new lockdowns and strict application of rules on wearing masks and social distancing.

There was a pick-up in retail sales in May, but it has disappeared as fast as it arrived because of the new outbreaks and the extension of the lockdown.

Meanwhile, if you’re trying to understand the economy, pay no attention to the stock market. The stock market is almost completely disconnected from the economy.

That’s partly because of the massive distortions caused by the Fed. But it’s also because the stock market is heavily weighted toward finance and technology.

Both sectors have been relatively unaffected by the pandemic and the resulting economic shock.

The industries that have been hurt are small-and-medium sized businesses in food, travel, resorts, bars, hotels, salons and other bricks-and-mortar or personal service establishments. Pain was also felt in mining, manufacturing and some other sectors.

These are important businesses in the economy, but they’re not nearly as important to major stock market indices as Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Netflix, Microsoft and other mainly digital companies.

If you want to understand the economy, look around your own community to see how many stores are still closed, how many are never reopening, and how much sales are down among the relatively few survivors.

It’s not a pretty picture, and based on the dynamics of the virus it won’t get better anytime soon.

But there’s another primary reason why the economy won’t recover anytime soon. It’s not getting much coverage in the mainstream press, but it should.

It involves a major population shift that only happens once every two or three generations. And it’s happening now.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/39bRY0j Tyler Durden

John Lewis Was an American Hero Who Battled Institutional Racism

evhistorypix011882

When John Lewis accepted the National Book Award in 2016 for a memoir about his time as a leader of the civil rights movement, he tearfully recalled that as a teenager in 1956 he was denied a library card. The library, he and his friends were told, was for whites only.

It’s a poignant moment, but it’s also a powerful reminder that, less than the span of one lifetime ago, racism in America was an institutionalized status quo enforced by governmental power to a degree that feels unthinkable today. Public libraries, public schools, public transit, and more were segregated as a matter of public policy. Challenging the fundamental injustice of those laws and institutions meant literally facing down the authority of the state.

Not being able to get a library card was only a small part of it. Lewis was jailed for more than a month in Mississippi in 1961 for the “crime” of using a public restroom marked “whites only”—one of more than 40 arrests during his lifetime. He had his skull fractured by a police officer during the violent break-up of a peaceful protest in Selma, Alabama, in 1965. That confrontation produced one of the iconic images of the civil rights era: Lewis, standing stoically with his hands stuffed in the pockets of his trenchcoat as police officers approach, batons in hand.

Lewis, who died on Friday at the age of 80, was a Democratic congressman from Georgia for the final 33 years of his life. But his greatest accomplishments came when he was a political outsider. As one of the youngest leaders of the civil rights movement, Lewis spoke powerfully against government-sanctioned injustice—and suffered for exercising his right to speak. He and his peers may not have eradicated racism from America, but they undoubtedly made the country a more free, more just place.

Indeed, Lewis’ life stands as a testament to the power of free speech and peaceful agitation as tools for creating progress within a democratic system. “I got in trouble. Good trouble. Necessary trouble,” Lewis remarked in 2013.

Lewis was living proof that such progress was possible without violence and without tearing down America’s foundations. He went from being a kid who couldn’t get a library card because of government-imposed racism to being a 17-term congressman who served alongside America’s first black president. In 2015, he was honored by President Barack Obama in a ceremony that took place on the very bridge where Lewis once had his head bashed in by a police officer.

“The Civil Rights Movement…did more to advance freedom within the United States than any other movement in the past century,” wrote Michael Cannon, director of health policy studies at the Cato Institute, in January, shortly after Lewis was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Lewis, he wrote, advanced human liberty “in his campaigns for individual rights, his advocacy for freedom in moral terms, his commitment to peaceful protest”; he helped expand everyone’s freedom “to speak, protest, vote, work, exchange, travel, and marry and procreate with African‐​Americans.”

His legacy is particularly important at the current moment, when debates over the role of racism—particularly when it is institutionalized within the criminal justice system—and the proper response to it are again at the forefront of American politics.

Lewis left no doubt where he stood on that. In one of his final interviews, he told The Washington Post‘s Jonathan Capehart that he was “inspired” by the peaceful protests against police brutality that have erupted this year—and that he viewed the militaristic response encouraged by President Donald Trump and some other officials as “a disgrace” that was “not in keeping with the best of America.”

This year has made it more clear, in ways both obvious and subtle, that Americans still have work to do to force their governments to live up to the promise of legal equality. But the widespread, institutionalized, overt segregation that Lewis experienced as a young man seems foreign and dystopian to most people living in America today. As it should.

For that, we should never forget Lewis and his peers, who spoke, worked, and bled to make America a more free and just nation.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/3jqBHJm
via IFTTT

Daily COVID-19 Deaths in the U.S. Continue to Rise

CoronavirusGenericDreamstime

Daily COVID-19 deaths in the United States are continuing to rise, reflecting the impact of a surge in newly confirmed cases that began last month. The seven-day nationwide average reported by independent data scientist Youyang Gu, which is based on tallies from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, rose from a low of 510 on July 4 to 763 yesterday. The Worldometer tally, which is based on deaths reported by local health departments, shows a similar trend, although its numbers are somewhat higher.

Daily deaths are still much lower than they were last spring, when Gu reported a seven-day average of 2,238 on April 18, and the upward trend is much more gradual than it was that month. Furthermore, the crude case fatality rate—deaths as a share of confirmed infections—continues to fall, from more than 6 percent in mid-May to 3.7 percent today. That downward trend likely reflects wider testing, which has added milder cases to the denominator; a younger, healthier mix of patients; and improvements in treatment.

The Worldometer count of daily new cases has risen almost fourfold since Memorial Day, from fewer than 20,000 on May 25 to a record of nearly 75,000 on July 17. But as reflected in the declining case fatality rate, the increase in a daily deaths has been much smaller—about 50 percent, based on the seven-day average.

Some states have seen much larger increases in daily COVID-19 deaths. Since Memorial Day, per Gu’s numbers, the seven-day average has risen by 178 percent in Florida and 338 percent in Texas. California, another state that accounts for a disproportionate share of newly identified infections, has fared better by that measure, seeing an increase of just 37 percent. And in Georgia, where the seven-day average of daily new cases has quintupled since May 25, the seven-day average of daily deaths is down a bit since then, although it was rising until mid-June and is once again headed upward. But even in Texas and Florida, the increase in deaths has been much smaller than the increase in cases.

Some of that gap can be explained by the typical lag between laboratory confirmation and death, which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) last month estimated was about two weeks. If expanded testing is catching cases earlier, the average time between a positive virus test and death may be growing, meaning the fatal consequences of the infections recorded in early July might not be apparent until the end of the month.

Even allowing for that lag, however, it is clear that COVID-19 patients, on average, are less likely to die from the disease than they were earlier in the epidemic. That is consistent with data showing that patients in the Sunbelt states that are driving the recent increase in cases tend to be younger than they were in the spring. The median age of people testing positive for the virus in Florida, for example, plummeted from 65 in early March to 35 in mid-June.

Such trends have important implications for the death rate, which is strongly correlated with age. According to the CDC’s “best estimate,” 1.3 percent of Americans 65 or older who develop COVID-19 symptoms will die from the disease, compared to 0.2 percent of 50-to-64-year-olds and 0.05 percent of people younger than 50. The ultimate death toll will therefore depend heavily on the success of precautions aimed at protecting older and less healthy Americans from infection during the time it takes to deploy an effective vaccine.

While a younger mix of patients implies a lower case fatality rate, we can still expect daily deaths to climb as a result of the recent surge in new infections. Gu, who has a good track record of predicting COVID-19 deaths, has repeatedly increased his projections during the last few weeks. His model still predicts a gradual rise in daily deaths during the next month, followed by a gradual decline through October. But the projected peak has risen from 774 in late August to 918 on August 11, and the estimated death toll as of October 1 has risen from about 186,000, the projection in early July, to nearly 200,000, rising to about 214,000 by November 1.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2CvsHlM
via IFTTT