Biden Has Responded To Maduro’s Call For Ending “Demonization Of Venezuela”

Biden Has Responded To Maduro’s Call For Ending “Demonization Of Venezuela”

We’ve noted from the start of the Biden presidency that despite his best efforts to cast himself as somehow radically different from Trump on foreign policy, there’s an increasing number of fronts where he’s clearly opted to continue on with the prior Republican administration’s policies. 

Nicolas Maduro for one was among those embattled leaders hoping for a new Washington trajectory in Latin America. In an interview last week he urged Biden to lift all Trump-era sanctions and to immediately normalize relations with Venezuela

While there’s no longer currently talk of a US Navy-imposed blockade on Venezuela’s coast to prevent all oil and fuel exports and imports (a plan floated by Trump to his admirals during his last year in office), the US-led oil embargo is still in place, keeping the Venezuelan economy crushed on top of an already collapsed system and persisting widespread corruption. 

Washington’s economic war which it should be recalled during Trump’s time saw a couple of failed and very short-lived military coup attempts, has also come in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in accusations from Caracas that the US is actively thwarting access to the vaccine

Maduro during the Bloomberg interview urged the Democratic administration for an end to the “demonization of Venezuela”

But on Sunday a US State Department statement was firm in rejecting Maduro’s call for normalization:

Responding to Maduro’s comments, a State Department spokesman said a U.S. policy shift would require major changes by the Venezuelan president. They’d have to include engaging with opposition leader Juan Guaido to resolve the country’s political crisis and pave the way for free and fair elections, as well as restoring economic and political freedoms.

As long as “repression and corrupt practices” by Maduro and his supporters continue, the U.S. will work with its partners and allies to keep up the pressure, including sanctions against those who undermine democracy, the spokesman said by email.

So there it is: the Biden administration has now adopted the language of Trump’s “pressure campaign” on Venezuela, albeit stopping short of keeping up the mythology of calling Juan Guaido ‘Interim President’. 

Complicating matters is that America’s ‘official enemies’ have continued to assist the Maduro government, particularly Russia and Iran – the latter which is increasing efforts of military cooperation as well as fuel imports.

China has also over the past year or so appeared willing to defy the US stance on Venezuela, reportedly in the form of limited military assistance. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/21/2021 – 11:10

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Claudette Regains Tropical Strength After 13 Killed In Alabama 

Claudette Regains Tropical Strength After 13 Killed In Alabama 

Claudette regained strength early Monday and is expected to return to tropical storm status later today in eastern North Carolina after it wreaked havoc in the Southeast – resulting in the deaths of 13 people.  

Claudette is expected to produce torrential rains and flash flooding risks from southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas during the morning, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Tornadoes are possible across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Carolinas today as the storm is expected to head up the East Coast and make its way towards Nova Scotia by mid-week. 

The bulk of the deaths over the weekend occurred when eight children died in a multi-vehicle crash. A van carrying the children hydroplaned on Interstate 65 about 35 miles south of Montgomery, Alabama when it crashed and erupted in flames. 

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is three weeks in as Claudette is the third named storm. It dumped up to 15 inches of rain on Saturday in southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and western Florida Panhandle. 

Readers may recall our past note on the increasing possibilities the 2021 hurricane season would be active. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/21/2021 – 10:45

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California May Extend Eviction Moratorium Past June, Make Landlords Whole

California May Extend Eviction Moratorium Past June, Make Landlords Whole

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) says the state will make landlords whole whose tenants have accumulated past-due rent amid the pandemic.

The state is also weighing whether to extend the eviction moratorium for unpaid rent beyond June 30, a pandemic-related order which was supposed to be temporary, according to the Associated Press. Federal eviction protections are set to expire on the same date, however California’s protections expanded the number of tenants covered by the moratorium.

Newsom and legislative leaders are meeting privately to decide what to do, part of the negotiations over the state’s roughly $260 billion operating budget. An extension of the eviction ban seems likely to give California more time to spend all the money to cover unpaid rent. But landlords and tenants’ rights groups are arguing over how long that extension should last.AP

“The expectation for people to be up and at ’em and ready to pay rent on July 1 is wholeheartedly unfair,” said Kelli Lloyd, a 43-year-old single mother who hasn’t worked consistently since the pandemic began in March 2020.

Lloyd owes $30,000 in back rent for her $1,924 per month two-bedroom, two-bathroom rent-controlled apartment in the Crenshaw district of south Los Angeles. She says she had to forego work for most of last year to take care of her two children due to closed daycare centers and schools halting in-person learning.

Lloyd, a member of the advocacy group Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment, says she recently lost a job at a real estate brokerage and has yet to find another one.

“Simply because the state has opened back up doesn’t mean people have access to their jobs,” she said.

Developing…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/21/2021 – 10:49

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Stocks & Bonds Have Completely Erased Friday’s “Bullard Bomb”

Stocks & Bonds Have Completely Erased Friday’s “Bullard Bomb”

As The PPT heads to The White House, Friday’s plunge in stocks and bond yields is magnificently erased ahead of a smorgasbord of FedSpeak this week…

Nasdaq is lagging but Dow and Russell 2000 are roaring higher this morning, and along with the S&P have erased Friday’s ‘Bullard Bomb’ drop…

And yields are surging off overnight lows, erasing Friday’s plunge also…

“Financial Stability” restored!

Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/21/2021 – 10:37

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Rand Paul: Coronavirus “In All Likelihood, Came From The Lab”

Rand Paul: Coronavirus “In All Likelihood, Came From The Lab”

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Senator Rand Paul warned this past weekend that scientists dismissing the Wuhan lab leak theory have extensive conflicts of interest and that all the evidence points to this hypothesis being the most likely.

Appearing on Fox News, Paul said “When you look at COVID-19, it doesn’t even seem to infect bats very well. It doesn’t infect an intermediate animal. They checked 80,000 animals at the wet markets in Wuhan. None of the animals at the wet market would accept COVID-19 or were positive for it.”

“It looks like it’s most well-adapted for humans. So this is worrisome, and yet more evidence that this, in all likelihood, came from the lab,” Paul added.

“I think if you look back at the last year and you look at the people who are discounting the theory that it originated in a lab, they are precisely the same scientists that were sending the funding to the lab. So, there is a real possibility that they have a conflict of interest,” Paul further noted.

The Senator has continually pushed back on anti-scientific statements regarding the pandemic made by Anthony Fauci and others including Peter Daszak, who not only funded gain of function research, but has continually pushed for the lab leak theory to be dismissed by the scientific community while being appointed by both the World Health Organisation and The Lancet journal to investigate the origins of the outbreak.

“This may be the biggest scientific error that Dr. Fauci has made so far and continues to make. He’s completely discounting natural immunity – the immunity you get after you’ve had an infection. All of the scientific studies, and I emphasize that ‘all,’ hundreds of studies now show that you do have immunity,” Paul, who has demanded “all records” be released from the NIH, urged.

The Senator continued, “If you discount that and you don’t count it, then Dr. Fauci says ‘Oh no, we don’t have enough people vaccinated, we’re not at herd immunity.’ Now we have to have mandates on the children, and we must force children of all ages to have the vaccine even though they don’t get sick from COVID very often and they almost never die from it.”

“He wants to force the vaccine on them because he makes a scientific error and doesn’t count natural immunity,” Paul emphasised.

Watch:

Paul’s comments come as Joe Biden’s security adviser Jake Sullivan stated that China must allow another investigation of the pandemic origins to be conducted or “face isolation in the international community.”

Sullivan intimated, however, that the Biden administration wants the World Health Organisation to once again lead the investigation, despite the fact that it absolved the Wuhan lab’s possible involvement in a leak after just three hours during its first ‘investigation’.

Watch:

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Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/21/2021 – 10:20

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Vancouver School Board Is Eliminating Honors Programs To Achieve ‘Equity’


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The Vancouver School Board in British Columbia, Canada, is eliminating honors courses as part of a push to foster inclusivity and equity in the classroom.

The board had previously eliminated the high school honors English program, and math and science will now get the ax as well.

“By phasing out these courses, all students will have access to an inclusive model of education, and all students will be able to participate in the curriculum fulsomely,” said the school board in a statement, according to the CBC.

This is a spectacularly frank declaration: Education officials don’t like that some higher-achieving students are sorted into environments where they are more likely to succeed than their less-gifted peers, and would prefer to keep everyone officially at the same level to the greatest extent possible. The plan closely mirrors California’s recent efforts to discourage students who are proficient at math from taking calculus any earlier than their classmates; Canadian educators seem no less excited than their U.S. counterparts about naively pursuing equality of outcome at all costs.

Parents are understandably furious, and several told The Globe and Mail that their children felt affirmed and accepted in their honors courses. For a response, the paper turned to Jennifer Katz, a professor of education at the University of British Columbia, who derided the parents’ concerns as “nonsense.”

“That’s a stereotype,” she said. “I don’t buy that. That is a part of racism and systemic racism. It’s a part of ‘I don’t want my kids in class with those kids.’ And that’s nonsense.”

Parents who want their kids to take classes that are actually challenging and stimulating—and populated with similarly gifted students—are not racist. They are not perpetuating systemic racism. If anything, the implicit assumption that only kids of a certain race can thrive under such conditions is racist.

Equity is a noble goal, but it should be obvious that taking away resources from smart teenagers in order to make them more similar to their lower-achieving peers is the height of idiocy. It does not inspire great confidence in the public education system that the officials who think this way are in charge of schools in Vancouver, California, and elsewhere.

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Vancouver School Board Is Eliminating Honors Programs To Achieve ‘Equity’


dreamstime_xxl_6082075

The Vancouver School Board in British Columbia, Canada, is eliminating honors courses as part of a push to foster inclusivity and equity in the classroom.

The board had previously eliminated the high school honors English program, and math and science will now get the ax as well.

“By phasing out these courses, all students will have access to an inclusive model of education, and all students will be able to participate in the curriculum fulsomely,” said the school board in a statement, according to the CBC.

This is a spectacularly frank declaration: Education officials don’t like that some higher-achieving students are sorted into environments where they are more likely to succeed than their less-gifted peers, and would prefer to keep everyone officially at the same level to the greatest extent possible. The plan closely mirrors California’s recent efforts to discourage students who are proficient at math from taking calculus any earlier than their classmates; Canadian educators seem no less excited than their U.S. counterparts about naively pursuing equality of outcome at all costs.

Parents are understandably furious, and several told The Globe and Mail that their children felt affirmed and accepted in their honors courses. For a response, the paper turned to Jennifer Katz, a professor of education at the University of British Columbia, who derided the parents’ concerns as “nonsense.”

“That’s a stereotype,” she said. “I don’t buy that. That is a part of racism and systemic racism. It’s a part of ‘I don’t want my kids in class with those kids.’ And that’s nonsense.”

Parents who want their kids to take classes that are actually challenging and stimulating—and populated with similarly gifted students—are not racist. They are not perpetuating systemic racism. If anything, the implicit assumption that only kids of a certain race can thrive under such conditions is racist.

Equity is a noble goal, but it should be obvious that taking away resources from smart teenagers in order to make them more similar to their lower-achieving peers is the height of idiocy. It does not inspire great confidence in the public education system that the officials who think this way are in charge of schools in Vancouver, California, and elsewhere.

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Colorado Court Slaps Baker With Fine for Refusing To Make Gender Transition Cake


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Another cake controversy out of Colorado. The baker at the center of a 2018 Supreme Court case concerning religious freedom, same-sex marriage, and civil rights is back in court over his refusal to serve up another cake. This time, the controversial cake was requested by a transgender woman in celebration of her gender transitioning.

Once again, Masterpiece Cakeshop’s Jack Phillips said making the requested cake would go against his morals. And, once again, the state isn’t having it…potentially setting up another prolonged showdown pitting religious liberty and freedom of expression against the application of statutes aimed at protecting LGBTQ rights.

In the last case—Masterpiece Cakeshop Ltd. v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission—the Supreme Court ruled 7–2 that Colorado was wrong to fine Phillips for refusing to make a wedding cake for a gay couple. The couple argued that this violated anti-discrimination law. Phillips said it didn’t, since he would sell regular baked goods to gay people with no problem—just not a wedding cake, as same-sex marriage was against his religious beliefs. Phillips argued that compelling him to participate in a gay couple’s marriage ceremony by baking a cake for the occasion violated his freedom of speech and religious liberty.

While the Court’s ruling was a win for Phillips, “the approach the court took guarantees that this debate is far from over,” as Reason‘s Scott Shackford noted back then. “The court did not rule that cake-baking is a protected form of free expression. Instead it said the Colorado Civil Rights Commission (CCRC) showed open hostility to the baker’s attempt to assert his religious beliefs as a reason to reject the couple’s request, and that the state thus did not neutrally enforce its antidiscrimination law.”

This left room for similar litigation going forward—and, indeed, an Oregon case involving similar circumstances came before the Supreme Court the following year. In that case, however, the Court simply ordered Oregon to take another look.

So far, Phillips’ latest legal battle has only made it to state court. But it has all the fixings to go bigger.

Last week, Denver District Court Judge A. Bruce Jones ruled that Phillips was violating Colorado anti-discrimination law by refusing to make Autumn Scardina a special cake—blue on the outside and pink on the inside—to commemorate both her birthday and her gender transition. Jones ordered Phillips to pay a $500 fine.

Scardina had commissioned the cake years ago, “on the same day in 2017 that the U.S. Supreme Court announced it would hear Phillips’ appeal in the wedding cake case,” notes The Washington Post. “Scardina said she wanted to ‘challenge the veracity’ of Phillips statements that he would serve LGBT customers, but her attempt to get a cake was not a ‘set up’ intended to file a lawsuit, Jones said.”

That last bit rings a little hollow, since Scardina didn’t simply order any old cake but a cake celebrating a gender transition, making sure the reason for the cake was known to Phillips. And his position all along has been that he wouldn’t deny service of non-message-laden baked goods to LGBTQ customers but that he also wouldn’t engage in the expressive process of making special pastries specifically to celebrate ideas or institutions he feels are an affront to his religious values.

There are surely lots of places where Scardina could get her desired cake made without having to hide anything. But clearly, this is about more than just the baking of a single cake, with both sides convinced they are sticking up for something bigger.

“Religious liberty or freedom from discrimination: Advocates on both sides insist the question is simple. In fact, it is very difficult,” opines David Von Drehle at the Post:

Two bedrock principles of the Constitution are brought into direct conflict. Americans have a right in their public lives to be free from discrimination based on who they are. This right finds expression in laws requiring businesses and agencies that serve the public to do so without discrimination.

Americans also have a protected freedom of belief and expression. They cannot be compelled by the government to express or reject any religious views or political opinions.

As with last time, however, it seems a bit unfair to describe this as simply the right to religious liberty versus the right not to be denied service based on identity. At the head of these cases is not merely some neutral service but goods expressing particular messages—and a desire to make the government compel them.

Perhaps it would help people distracted by dislike for Phillips’ beliefs to keep in mind that a state strong enough to declare that a baker must make a cake with pro-transgender messaging is also one strong enough to declare that a business must make things with anti-transgender messaging. Something tells me that folks cheering on Colorado’s claim that it can compel expressive speech via baked goods wouldn’t be so happy if bakeries were forced to make requested cakes depicting, say, same-sex couples or trans people burning in hell.

(“Underlying this dispute — the really explosive part — is a slippery slope,” notes Von Drehle. “It seems monstrous to think that artisans have no control over the expressive content of their creations. Surely a seamstress who willingly provides choir robes and judicial robes should not be compelled to make robes for a Ku Klux Klan rally.”)

Fortunately, in a free market, we don’t need the government to force either. There is surely no shortage of businesses willing to bake goods with pro-LGBTQ messages (or not to ask further questions if a part pink, part blue cake is requested), and probably at least a few that would be willing to do the opposite for the right price. Meanwhile, there are less coercive means—like boycotts and negative publicity—for people to express displeasure with businesses like Masterpiece Cakeshop.

Despite all this, people are repeatedly trying to get the government to force one particular man known to oppose these messages to violate his beliefs and do so.

Given the circumstances, it seems a lot more like bullying someone over their values and attempting to drive openly religious entrepreneurs out of business for not agreeing with prevailing orthodoxy around sexuality and gender than a principled stand for the material well-being and concerns of marginalized groups. You may not agree with Phillips’ beliefs—I don’t—but a liberal, pluralistic society requires tolerance for people of different moral beliefs coexisting without using the state to crush dissent out of one another.


FREE MINDS

Today in misplaced media hype:


FREE MARKETS

When you legalize drugs without decriminalizing them:

In Florida, growing fewer than 25 cannabis plants without a license is a felony punishable by up to five years in prison and a $5,000 fine, according to the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML). And growing more plants than that can mean up to 30 years in prison and a $15,000 fine.


QUICK HITS

• It’s a security theater milestone! Sigh…

• The Department of Justice weighs in on state bans on certain treatments for transgender kids:

• Good news: The U.S. and the European Union have “hammered out an important agreement to suspend pointless retaliatory tariffs targeting a host of foods.”

• On TV, Fox News host Tucker Carlson excoriates the press. In private, he’s a chatterbox and “a great source” to journalists in mainstream media.

• President Joe Biden’s meeting last week with Russian President Vladimir Putin was “a banal event in the context of past Democratic administrations, but a remarkable one in the context of the world as the liberal Resistance interpreted it from 2016 through 2020,” notes Ross Douthat for The New York Times.

• Telemedicine abortion is here to stay, argues Salon.

• In 2018, Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott said family separations were “tragic and heart-rending.” In 2021, he’s enforcing his own family separation policy.

• “A Southern California sheriff’s deputy is under criminal investigation after he was recorded on video kicking a pursuit suspect in the head while the man appeared to be surrendering,” the Associated Press reports.

• A new bipartisan bill called the Processing Revival and Intrastate Meat Exemption (PRIME) Act “would remove the requirement that all slaughterhouses be subject to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) rules and inspections” and allow “states and towns to set their own rules for slaughtering livestock.”

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Oil Rises Above $73 As Iran Talks Again Fail To Reach Deal

Oil Rises Above $73 As Iran Talks Again Fail To Reach Deal

Iranian negotiators in Vienna confirm that they plan to continue pressing toward a deal after Iran’s presidential election weekend, which saw ultraconservative judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi emerge victorious: “we’ve reached a clear text on all the issues and what remains requires the decision of all parties. It’s not unlikely that the next round of talks will be the last,” the foreign ministry optimistically stated. But this has been the constant refrain for weeks – still with no firm end in sight.

But with a more pessimistic tone, the West is warning there’s nothing ‘open ended’ about the talks: “Western officials warned Tehran on Sunday that negotiations to revive its nuclear deal could not continue indefinitely, after the sides announced a break following the election of a new hardline president in Iran,” according to Reuters. For the past month there’s been intensifying prediction-making over just what the impact a “done deal” – if things in Vienna finally get there – will be on global oil prices, which would immediately see at least 2.5 million barrels of Iranian crude per day come flooding back to the market. 

On Sunday at a moment negotiators adjourned a sixth round of meetings yet still with no deal reached, Bloomberg observed, “Oil held near $72 a barrel as inconclusive nuclear talks between world powers and Iran — which has elected a new hardline president — allayed prospects for a swift revival of the Islamic Republic’s crude exports.” Into Monday morning it’s still climbing, with Brent Crude hovering just under $73.5 a barrel.

Brent crude starting a week ago has held at its highest price level in nearly 3 years, pushing up gas prices in the United States, also amid continued projections of the distinct possibility of $100 oil – especially should US-Iran indirect talks in Vienna drag on with no clear culmination on the horizon.

Bloomberg comments on this uncertain point as follows by noting “The failure to clinch an agreement puts additional pressure on other members of the OPEC+ coalition, which meets next week to consider restoring more oil output.” Further the report observes:

Crude is up almost 50% this year as major economies emerge from restrictions and lockdowns after the rollout of Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide. Demand has rebounded, especially in the U.S., Europe and parts of Asia. Consumption in China has exceeded pre-pandemic levels and India is showing signs of recovering from a deadly second virus wave that decimated its economy.

Recall that earlier in June oil rapidly dumped then jumped again on the mere hint of official news that the US had relieved sanctions on Iran – which it turned out was a US Treasury move only impacting one lone Iranian oil official. 

As we noted at that time, Iran has previously said it intends to raise oil output by at least 3.3mln barrels within a month after the lifting of US sanctions, and as much as 4mln BPD within three months. Naturally, should that happen, the oil market will see a surge in new supply but even with millions of new barrels coming online, Goldman last month said that Iran would not have a major impact on the price of oil and wrote that “with growing evidence of the demand rebound, and imminent clarification on the likelihood of an Iranian return, we now see a clearer path for the next leg higher in oil prices, with the sell-off offering opportunities to position for the rally to $80/bbl.”

But adding yet further to the unpredictability that the Iran factor will have on oil markets this summer, the Islamic Republic’s sanctions busting “ghost armada” is still going strong apparently, with a little help from China:

A ‘ghost armada’ of sanctions-busting tankers carrying black-market oil to China is bankrolling Iran’s secret nuclear programme, The Mail on Sunday can reveal.

The rogue state has almost doubled its fleet sailing under other countries’ flags to 123 in the past year, letting China smuggle in up to a million barrels of oil per day – or two-thirds of the UK’s daily use.

The Daily Mail further cites intelligence officials who “warn that the expanded fleet shows Iran, which announced hardliner Ebrahim Raisi as its president yesterday, is boosting development of its nuclear capability despite international curbs.”

While such tactics including tankers switching of their transponders or even deceptively sailing under other countries’ flags are nothing new, what is new is the likely hesitancy of the Biden administration to crack down on the practice – as was attempted under Trump.

However, as of March the Biden administration was quietly telling Beijing “There will be no tacit green light,” according to reporting in FT at the time; however it remained that enforcement would only utilize “secondary sanctions” targeting Chinese companies caught transferring Iranian oil. It’s as yet unclear the degree to which the Biden White House has followed through with its threat of “no green light”. 

“China was reportedly buying an average of 700,000 barrels of illegal Iranian oil a day up to April, peaking at a million barrels, making it Tehran’s main customer,” the report continues. “Ghost armada ships carrying 18 million barrels are currently thought to be in the South China Sea.” 

Closer to home, Iran has meanwhile been actively prepping to get its global exports flowing once again via official means following years of Trump-imposed biting sanctions which particularly targeted Iran’s oil exports, and with in some cases Iranian tankers even being seized.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/21/2021 – 10:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3gJzx8D Tyler Durden

Key Events This Week: A Tidal Wave Of Fed Speakers

Key Events This Week: A Tidal Wave Of Fed Speakers

Given last week’s extreme moves in the market, one of the most important things this week will be Fed speakers responding to the meeting and subsequent market according to DB’s Jim Ried, who adds that the big highlight – at least on paper – will be Fed chair Powell’s testimony tomorrow before the House select subcommittee on the Covid-19 crisis. However, Powell’s discussion is expected to center on the Fed’s policy response and we may not get too much FOMC insight.

Before that Bullard (non-voter, dove) who sparked Friday’s selloff with his uber-hawkish comments, and Kaplan (non-voter, hawk) discuss the economic outlook today. They both have expressed a preference for liftoff in 2022, though for somewhat different reasons. As noted above, Bullard rocked markets on Friday by suggesting his 2022 core PCE inflation forecast of 2.5% as justifying a hike in late 2022, whereas Kaplan has recently focused on financial stability concerns. So there might not be much more for these guys to say today but New York President Williams (voter, dove) later this afternoon might have fresh views especially on the taper given the responsibility for the Fed’s balance sheet that his region has.

Before Powell tomorrow, San Francisco’s Daly (voter, dove) and Cleveland’s Mester (non-voter, hawk) will be speaking at separate events while on Wednesday, we will hear from Fed Governor Bowman (neutral), Atlanta President Bostic (voter, neutral) and Boston’s Rosengren (non-voter, hawk). Bostic will appear again on Thursday alongside Philadelphia’s Harker (non-voter, hawk), the latter of which has also been a proponent of tapering asset purchases sooner rather than later. We’ll also have repeat performances from Williams, Bullard, Kaplan and Mester over the week.

So, as Reid wraps up, plenty of potential market moving jawboning: the Fed were very coordinated in playing down inflation risks after the first mega CPI print six weeks ago so it’ll be interesting if they all sing from the same song sheet this week. I can’t help thinking that the debate is starting to liven up at the Fed now but will the last few days of market moves scare them?

Moving onto the data the biggest highlight will be the release of the June flash PMIs on Wednesday from around the world, which will give us an initial indication of how the global economy has performed into the end of Q2. The final May PMIs showed that growth was still maintaining decent momentum, with the Euro Area composite PMI coming in at 57.1, the strongest in over 3 years, while the US composite PMI was at 68.7, which is the strongest since the data goes back to in October 2009. Another release of note will be the German Ifo’s business climate indicator for June (Thursday), which rose to a 2-year high last month of 99.2.

Friday will be a key day with inflation being dissected within the US personal income and University of Michigan releases. Clues to Core PCE will be the key in the former with the 5-10 year inflation expectations important on the latter. On this, May’s number dipped 0.2% from April’s 3%. So all eyes on this.

The main monetary policy decision this week comes from the Bank of England on Thursday, where economists generally expect the MPC to remain cautiously optimistic around the recovery, keeping the policy rate on hold at 0.1% and maintaining the target stock of QE at £895bn – stronger growth, labor market and inflation data thus far should tilt the policy statement in a slightly more hawkish direction than in May. Nevertheless, something else to watch out for in the UK will be the latest data on Covid-19, as the spread of the delta variant has led to a noticeable rise in cases and hospitalizations over recent weeks, albeit still at relatively low levels compared to earlier in the year. Russia, Germany and Portugal have now also reported an increasing spread of Delta with a big story in the FT today about the variants small but growing footholds across Europe. This will capture some attention. The rest of the week’s main events will be in the day by day list at the end.

Turning to politics, French President Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen both are likely to have fared poorly in a regional election in France where the turnout was at an all-time low of c. 33% (vs. c. 50% in last election). According to an Ifop poll, Le Pen’s National Rally got 19%, c. 10 points behind her performance in the last election while, Macron’s party took only 11% and is not expected to win any regions. Better performances came from the Conservative party that likely received 27% of votes while the Greens are likely to be at 12%. To know more on how the outcome of regional elections can have an impact on the French Presidential election in 2022 read this note from our European economists (link here).

Day-by-day calendar of events for the coming week courtesy of Deutsche Bank

Monday June 21

  • Data: US May Chicago Fed national activity index
  • Central Banks: ECB President Lagarde, ECB’s Centeno and Fed’s Bullard and Williams speak

Tuesday June 22

  • Data: UK May public sector net borrowing, Euro Area advance June consumer confidence, US May existing home sales, June Richmond Fed manufacturing index
  • Central Banks: Fed Chair Powell, Fed’s Daly, Mester and ECB’s Rehn speak

Wednesday June 23

  • Data: Flash manufacturing, services and composite PMIs for June from Australia, Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK and US, Japan final April leading index, US Q1 current account balance, May new home sales
  • Central Banks: ECB Vice President de Guindos, Fed’s Bowman, Bostic and Rosengren speak

Thursday June 24

  • Data: Germany June Ifo business climate, US third reading Q1 GDP, preliminary May durable goods orders, weekly initial jobless claims, June Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity
  • Central Banks: Bank of England monetary policy decision, ECB publishes Economic Bulletin, Fed’s Bostic, Harker, Bullard and ECB’s Panetta and Schnabel speak
  • Politics: EU leaders meet in Brussels for European Council

Friday June 25

  • Data: UK June GfK consumer confidence, Germany July GfK consumer confidence, Euro Area May M3 money supply, Italy June consumer confidence, US May personal income, personal spending, final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index
  • Central Banks: Fed’s Mester and Rosengren speak
  • Politics: European Council meeting concludes

Finally, focusing on just the US, The key economic data releases this week are the durable goods report and Q1 GDP revision on Thursday, and core PCE inflation on Friday. There are many speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including New York Fed President Williams on Monday and Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress on Tuesday.

Monday, June 21

  • 09:45 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) and Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speak: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will discuss the economic outlook in a virtual event hosted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Q&A is expected.
  • 03:00 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will speak at a virtual event hosted by the Midsize Banking Coalition of America. Prepared text and Q&A are expected.

Tuesday, June 22

  • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, May (GS -4.0%, consensus -2.4%, last -2.7%): We estimate that existing home sales declined by 4.0% in May after declining by 2.7% in April. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers’ commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.
  • 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, June (consensus +18, last +18): 10:30 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will discuss monetary policy and financial stability during a virtual workshop hosted by the Norges Bank. Prepared text and Q&A are expected.
  • 11:00 AM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at a virtual event hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Prepared text and Q&A are expected.
  • 02:00 PM Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will appear before a House select subcommittee hearing on the Covid-19 crisis to discuss pandemic emergency lending and the economy. Prepared text is expected.

Wednesday, June 23

  • 8:30 AM Current Account Balance, Q1 (consensus -$206.5bn, last $-188.5bn)
  • 09:00 AM Fed Governor Bowman (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak at a conference on economic resilience hosted by the Cleveland Fed.
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, June (consensus 61.5, last 62.1): Markit Flash US services PMI, June (consensus 70.0, last 70.4)
  • 10:00 AM New home sales, May (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.9%, last -5.9%): We estimate that new home sales increased by 0.7% in May, reflecting mean-reversion and a rise in starts but a slowdown in permits and mortgage applications.
  • 11:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will discuss the impact of systemic racism on entrepreneurship. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
  • 04:30 PM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will discuss the economy in a moderated Q&A hosted by the National Association of Corporate Directors. Audience Q&A is expected.

 Thursday, June 24

  • 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, May (GS -$86.7bn, consensus -$87.7bn, last -$85.7bn): We estimate that the goods trade deficit increased by $1.0bn to $86.7bn in May compared to the final April report, reflecting the tail end of stimulus-driven import strength and inventory restocking partially offset by firming seaborne exports.
  • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, May preliminary (consensus +0.8%, last +0.8%): Retail inventories, May (consensus +0.4%, last -1.6%)
  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, May preliminary (GS +2.4%, consensus +3.0%, last -1.3%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, May preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.7%, last +1.0%); Core capital goods orders, May preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.6%, last +2.2%); Core capital goods shipments, May preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.8%, last +0.9%): We estimate durable goods orders rose 2.4% in the preliminary May report, reflecting an expected rebound in commercial aircraft and defense orders. We estimate smaller gains in the core categories, including +0.4% in core capital goods orders and +0.6% for core capital goods shipments, reflecting rebounding exports but an elevated pace of orders the prior month.
  • 08:30 AM GDP (third), Q1 (GS +6.4%, consensus +6.4%, last +6.4%); Personal consumption, Q1 (GS +11.3%, consensus +11.4%, last +11.3%): We estimate no revision on net in the third vintage of the Q1 GDP report (previously reported at +6.4% qoq saar).
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 19 (GS 380k, consensus 380k, last 412k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 12 (consensus 3,481k, last 3,518k): We estimate initial jobless claims decreased to 380k in the week ended June 19.
  • 09:30 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) and Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will take part in a moderated panel discussion hosted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Audience Q&A is expected.
  • 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, June (consensus +25, last +26)
  • 11:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will take part in a virtual moderated discussion hosted by the College of Staten Island. Audience Q&A is expected.
  • 01:00 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will discuss the economic outlook in a virtual event hosted by the Clayton Chamber of Commerce. Prepared text is expected.
  • 01:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will take part in a virtual discussion hosted by the Headliners Club of Austin. Audience Q&A is expected.

Friday, June 25

  • 08:30 AM Personal income, May (GS -2.4%, consensus -2.7%, last -13.1%); Personal spending, May (GS +0.6% consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%); PCE price index, May (GS +0.52%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.61%); Core PCE price index, May (GS +0.56%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.66%); PCE price index (yoy), May (GS +3.95%, consensus +3.9%, last +3.58%); Core PCE price index (yoy), May (GS +3.43%, consensus +3.4%, last +3.06%): Based on details in the PPI, CPI, and import price reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose by 0.56% month-over-month in May, corresponding to a 3.43% increase from a year earlier. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.52% in May, corresponding to a 3.95% increase from a year earlier. We expect a 2.4% decrease in personal income and a 0.6% increase in personal spending in May.
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June final (87.0, consensus 86.5, last 86.4): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to 87.0 in the final June reading, reflecting stronger signals from other consumer sentiment measures.
  • 11:35 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak at a conference on economic resilience hosted by the Cleveland Fed.
  • 01:00 PM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will discuss financial stability during a virtual event hosted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Prepared text and audience Q&A are expected.
  • 03:00 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver honoree remarks at the UCEAP Distinguished Alumni Award Ceremony hosted by the University of California Education Abroad Program.

Source: DB, BofA, Goldman

Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/21/2021 – 09:58

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3gMJLUA Tyler Durden