“Money Can’t Buy A Movement” – AOC Trounces MCC In New York Primary

“Money Can’t Buy A Movement” – AOC Trounces MCC In New York Primary

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/24/2020 – 08:15

Authored by Isabel van Brugen via The Epoch Times,

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), on Tuesday night won her Democratic primary in New York’s 14th District, defeating challenger Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, a former anchor for CNBC.

Progressive freshman lawmaker Ocasio-Cortez, who became the youngest woman ever to serve in Congress in the United States in 2018, brought a huge campaign war chest and a national profile to her bid for a second term in her diverse district encompassing parts of the Bronx and Queens in New York City. She won some 70 percent of the vote.

Democratic challenger Caruso-Cabrera, a former CNBC television anchor, had the backing of the conservative U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which usually supports Republicans.

As Robert Wenzel noted, you have to be a very special politician to defeat a socialist like AOC who is popular with the masses.

“When I won in 2018, many dismissed our victory as a ‘fluke.’ Our win was treated as an aberration, or because my opponent ‘didn’t try.’ So from the start, tonight’s race was important to me,” Ocasio-Cortez said on Twitter Tuesday night. “Tonight we are proving that the people’s movement in NY isn’t an accident. It’s a mandate.”

“No amount of money can buy a movement,” she said in a video shared on the social media platform, adding that her victory came despite Wall Street opposition. Wall Street executives raised more than $2 million to support the 51-year-old former television anchor Caruso-Cabrera.

Ocasio-Cortez, 30, raised more than $10.5 million, exceeding the totals collected by her other challengers by far. She rose to political stardom in 2018 after ousting Rep. Joe Crowley in a stunning primary. Crowley overwhelmingly outspent her and appeared to be in line to become House speaker.

Ocasio-Cortez’s victory came after a Republican candidate challenging the 30-year-old announced on May 25 that she had dropped out of the congressional GOP primary race.

Scherie Murray, a businesswoman and Jamaican immigrant, on May 25 announced the news citing executive orders issued by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in response to the CCP virus pandemic as hindering the electoral process.

“Governor Cuomo’s undemocratic Executive Orders overthrew New York’s electoral process,” Murray’s campaign said. “The right to access the ballot, freedom of association as a member of a political party, the exchange of ideas and free speech are so sacred that the Founding Fathers made it the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States.”

“Notwithstanding, during the coronavirus pandemic, Governor Cuomo’s Executive Orders have gone unchecked, affirming the ability to silence Murray’s First Amendment rights,” the statement continued.

“As long as avowed socialists are legislators, you can rest assured I will use my platform to advocate for the kitchen table issues of the toughest, hardest working New Yorkers,” Murray said. “This is not the end for Scherie Murray because I will continue to work hard.”

Meanwhile, presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden won the Democratic presidential primary in New York.

Ocasio-Cortez will face Republican John Cummings, a retired New York Police Department officer, in the November election for the Northwest Queens-East Bronx House seat.

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Futures Slide On Renewed Trade War Fears, Surge In Virus Cases

Futures Slide On Renewed Trade War Fears, Surge In Virus Cases

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/24/2020 – 08:02

After several days of surging on “recovery and trade deal optimism”, overnight sentiment took a big hit on “virus resurgence and trade deal pessimism” sending S&P futs and European stocks sliding the most in a week “following a surge in the number of coronavirus cases globally” according to Reuters. Spoos dropped following European shares lower, amid an acceleration in virus cases the American South and cautious remarks on a recovery by ECB’s chief economist.

Futures took a second leg lower following a Bloomberg report that the U.S. is weighing new tariffs on $3.1 billion of exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K. According to the report, the USTR wants to impose new tariffs on European exports like olives, beer, gin and trucks, while increasing duties on products including aircrafts, cheese and yogurt. The European Union is also debating whether to keep the door shut to American travelers this summer.

Risk appetite got a boost on Tuesday after data showed improving business activity in France and Germany as well as on White House reassurances about the Phase One U.S.-China trade deal. But European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said that solid data may not be a good guide to how the euro zone recovers from the crisis.

As a result, Europe’s STOXX 600 index fell 1.5%, with the economically sensitive sectors such as travel & leisure, automakers and banks leading declines. Many U.S. states reported record daily increases in COVID-19 infections amid easing of lockdowns, while a media report that European Union countries are prepared to bar entry to Americans raised worries of further restrictions.  The top decliner on the STOXX 600 was Sweden’s Evolution Gaming Group AB, which fell 9.4% after it offered to buy NetEnt AB for 19.6 billion Swedish crowns. NetEnt’s shares jumped 27.5%. German real estate company Leg Immobilien fell 3.4% after plans to launch a capital increase through stock and debt offering. Germany’s DAX was down 1.9% despite Ifo institute’s survey showing the strongest rise ever recorded in the country’s business morale in June.

“While the economic impact of such measures will be less than shutting down an entire economy, a recovery of this nature is a messier story for investors to digest and this could act as a drag on equities,” AJ Bell’s strategist Russ Mould wrote.

Asian stocks also fell, led by utilities and energy, after rising in the last session. Markets in the region were mixed, with Thailand’s SET and India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index falling, and Jakarta Composite and South Korea’s Kospi Index rising. The Topix declined 0.4%, with Yasunaga and Land Co falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3%, with Shandong Jinjing and Kunwu Jiuding Investment posting the biggest advances.

As Bloomberg notes, market sentiment is turning more negative on concern that the spreading coronavirus could force policy makers to slow the pace or reverse business re-openings. At the same time, there’s the potential for trade tensions to resurface between the European Union and the US.

“The outbreaks have given markets the unpleasant reminder that the pandemic is far from over and that the economic recovery may be slower than expected,” said Mobeen Tahir, associate director of research at WisdomTree in London. But the downturn would only become serious “if infection rates rise to alarming levels and sweeping lockdowns are enforced again.”

In FX, the dollar rose against most of its Group-of-10 peers after risk sentiment soured despite encouraging business surveys from Germany and France. The dollar hovered around 1.13 per euro; Norway’s krone slipped amid lower oil prices. The pound fell for the first time in three days against the dollar amid concern the U.K.’s plan to lift lockdowns in early July could set off a second wave of infections. New Zealand’s dollar declined against all G-10 peers after the central bank flagged that the currency’s recent appreciation is placing pressure on export earnings. The Reserve Bank also said it continues to work toward having more policy tools.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures extend on earlier losses as sentiment took another hit from reports the US is targetting EU and UK goods in its latest move. Prices were already ebbing lower as the complex succumed to the broader risk aversion since the European cash open. Meanwhile, spot gold continues to march on despite a firmer Buck as investors flock to the safe heaven. The yellow metal resides at fresh over-7yr highs around USD 1775/oz ahead of the psychological USD 1800/oz. Copper prices see a double whammy from the firmer USD and risk aversion as prices receed back below USD 2.65/lb despite weekly Shanghai inventories posting a decline in stocks.

In rates, yields were mostly unchanged to Tuesday’s closing levels, though long-end outperforms slightly ahead of Wednesday’s 5-year and Thursday’s 7-year auctions. The 10-year TSY yield, higher by 0.3bp around 0.715%, trails steeper increase for bund yield ahead of Austria’s 2 billion euro century bond sale.

Looking ahead, highlights include, SNB Quarterly Bulletin, DoEs, Fed’s Evans, Bullard, supply from the US. Scheduled earnings include Blackberry.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 3,094.50
  • MXAP down 0.1% to 160.94
  • MXAPJ up 0.1% to 521.04
  • Nikkei down 0.07% to 22,534.32
  • Topix down 0.4% to 1,580.50
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 24,781.58
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 2,979.55
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 35,177.50
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,965.75
  • Kospi up 1.4% to 2,161.51
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.4% to 362.13
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to -0.411%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1294
  • Brent Futures down 0.9% to $42.24/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.1 bps to 1.129%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 0.473%
  • Brent Futures down 0.9% to $42.24/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,771.49
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 96.81

Top Overnight News from BBG

  • Newly diagnosed Covid-19 infections soared in some of the most populous U.S. states, with California, Texas and Arizona reporting their biggest daily jumps. The EU is considering keeping travelers from the U.S. out when it reopens external borders
  • The U.S. is weighing new tariffs on $3.1 billion of exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K., adding to an arsenal the Trump administration is threatening to use against Europe that could spiral into a wider transatlantic trade fight later this summer
  • The coronavirus pandemic has forced a one-year delay in the opening up of Europe’s $1.5 trillion-a-day market for exchange-traded derivatives
  • “German business sees light at the end of the tunnel,” Ifo chief Clemens Fuest said. While expectations in manufacturing surged at a record pace, “a great majority of companies still assess their current situation as poor”
  • Austria pulled in record orders of more than 16 billion euros for a new century bond, after its previous one rallied to return investors about 85% since 2017
  • Companies shoring up cash to survive the global pandemic raised funds in the U.S. high- yield market at the fastest monthly pace ever

Asian equity markets traded with a slight positive bias after momentum from global peers provided the initial constructive setting for the region. This followed the advances for all major indices on both sides of the Atlantic with sentiment helped by stronger than expected data and the UK further easing lockdown restrictions, while the Nasdaq notched a fresh all-time high, although some of the gains were later pared stateside amid ongoing concerns regarding the increasing pace of infection numbers in parts of the US. ASX 200 (+0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (Unch.) were rangebound with the Australian benchmark treading water for much of the session as strength in the commodity related sectors was offset by weakness in the top-weighted financials, and a non-committal tone was also observed in Tokyo as exporters contended with the recent currency strength, while the KOSPI (+1.4%) outperformed on positive geopolitical developments in which North Korea Leader Kim decided to suspend military action against South Korea. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) ended mixed after another firm liquidity effort by the PBoC and with Tencent shares posting a record high in Hong Kong, but with upside contained due to ongoing US-China tensions. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lacklustre as the mild positive tone in stocks and lack of BoJ presence in the market kept prices subdued, which also saw the 30yr yield increase to its highest since April last year during early trade.

Top Asian News

  • Bank of Thailand Sees 8.1% Contraction, Pledges More Support
  • India Stocks Mixed in Volatile Trade as Border Clash Eases
  • Relaxed ‘Hukou‘ Rules Spur China Home Rebound Beyond Beijing

European equities kicked the session off on a softer footing before extending the move to the downside (Eurostoxx 50 -1.6%) as losses were exacerbated by reports that the US is targeting USD 3.1bln of exports from France, Germany, Spain and the UK with new tariffs whilst increasing the levy on aircraft, cheese and yogurts. Nonethless from a wider lens, the main source of focus remains on the rising COVID-19 case count in certain parts of the US. However, it is hard to place too much weight on this acting as a downside catalyst for Europe given that US equities finished firmer on Wall St. and futures are faring better stateside than they are across the Atlantic. From a sectoral standpoint, weakness in Europe is predominantly being driven by cyclical names with autos, travel and banking names lagging their peers. Price action within these sectors is subject to little in the of stock-specific newsflow and as such reflects broader pessimism within the market. IT names are faring slightly better than most (albeit lower on the day) with support emanating from Dialog Semiconductor (+8.0%) after the Co. raised Q2 revenue guidance. Other individual movers include Wirecard (again) with Co. shares lower by 8.5% as questions continue to mount over the impact of recent scandals on its business relationships, particularly with Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) with whom they hold licenses with to issue credit cards. Atlantia (+2.3%) continue to remain in focus following government talks last night whereby it was agreed that negotiations should continue regarding the Co.’s motorway concession.

Top European News

  • Merkel’s Popularity Surge Puts German Greens on the Back Foot
  • German June Ifo Business Confidence 86.2; Est. 85
  • Solvay Says Aerospace Slump to Result in $1.7 Billion Writedown
  • Google to Invest up to $2b in Cloud Data Centers in Poland: Puls

In FX, the broader Dollar and Index continue to strengthen early doors – potentially consolidating from recent losses but broader market performance points more towards safe-haven inflows, and with little by way of fresh fundamental factors driving the moves. Underlying influences linger in the form of heightened tensions between US and China and potential implications from a second outbreak as participants gear up for month/quarter end. DXY has extended gains from yesterday’s 96.379 low and now eyes 97.000 to the upside with its 10 DMA (97.028) also in range with the absence of Tier 1 data on the slate, whilst Fed non-voters Evans and Bullard are likely to sing from the same hymn sheet as from Powell’s most recent appearance.

  • NZD – Kiwi remains the G10 underperformer amid the broader risk aversion coupled with a dovish tilt by the RBNZ, which despite holding rates and large scale asset purchases steady, noted that a firmer Kiwi is weighing on exports and continued to tout future policy easing was on the cards – members discussed the pros and cons of expanding QE now, in which any expansion would need to be of a sufficient magnitude to make a meaningful difference. NZD/USD relinquished the 0.6500 handle (high 0.6514) and continues to move south of 0.6450 (10 DMA) as the pair eyes its 21 DMA at 0.6415 ahead of the round figure.
  • EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, EM – All broadly lower vs. the USD but the high-beta FX see more pronounced pressure as the appetite for risk further deteriorates and aversion intensifies. The single currency caved in light of reports that the US is taking aim at EU and UK goods, after the EUR intiially shrugged off a mixed Ifo release with current conditions falling short of consensus and expectations exceeding; economists cautioned that in-spite of the economy now firmly being on an upward path, the situation in the industrial sector remains dire. Meanwhile, ECB’s chief economist Lane provided little by way of fresh updates but did put more credence on the outcome of the EU Recovery Fund on the future of the economy, alluding to potential impact on monetary policy. On that front, President Macron held talks with his Dutch counterpart, and known Frugal Four member, with reports pointing to progress (but no agreement) on the latter’s resistance to the Commission’s proposal ahead of the mid-July meeting. EUR/USD gave up its 1.13-handle (high 1.1325) and whipsawed lower to 1.1270 on the US tariff news ahead of its 10 DMA at 1.1261, followed by potential mild support at 1.1258 and 1.1243 (200 and 100 HMAs respectively). GBP/USD was relatively unreactive to the US levy headlines and fluctuates on either side of 1.2500, having printed a high at 1.2518 and a low near a Fib at 1.2463 (38.2% of 1.1237-2541 move), whilst some participants highlight potential bids at yesterday’s low of 1.2434. The Loonie and Aussie also bear the brunt of weakness in commodities – USD/CAD failed to sustain a break above its 10 DMA (1.3571) and hovers around its 21 DMA (1.3557), having found a base yesterday at its 200 DMA (1.3480). AUD/USD tested support at 0.6900 (high 0.6961) but currently meanders its 100 WMA (0.6909) ahead of its 10 and 21 DMAs at 0.6884 and 0.6869 respectively.
  • JPY, CHF – Both resilient against the rising Buck as safe-haven inflows counter the Dollar dominance. Overnight the BoJ Summary of Opinions added nothing to the Central Bank’s narrative, whilst the CHF awaits the findings of the SNB quarterly bulletin for Q2 later today. The safe havens failed to derive much traction from US ramping up tariffs against some EU countries alongisde the UK. USD/JPY now trades flat intraday and off its earlier peak at 107.21, now residing around 106.50 having earlier dipped to a whisker away from 106.00 ahead of the May 8th low just under the round figure. USD/CHF losses further ground below its earlier high at 0.9528 having tested 0.9420 to the downside.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures extend on earlier losses as sentiment took another hit from reports the US is targetting EU and UK goods in its latest move. Prices were already ebbing lower as the complex succumed to the broader risk aversion since the European cash open. Yesterday’s private inventories only added to the bearish narrative as headlines stocks showed a larger than expected build of 1.7mln barrels vs. Exp. 300k. Participants will now be on the lookout for confirmations at the weekly DoE release in the absecnce of fundamental catalysts. WTI Aug resides sub-USD 40/bbl (vs. 40.50/bbl high) whilst its Brent counterpart meanders around USD 42/bbl (vs. 42.89/bbl high). Meanwhile, spot gold continues to march on despite a firmer Buck as investors flock to the safe heaven. The yellow metal resides at fresh over-7yr highs around USD 1775/oz ahead of the psychological USD 1800/oz. Copper prices see a double whammy from the firmer USD and risk aversion as prices receed back below USD 2.65/lb despite weekly Shanghai inventories posting a decline in stocks.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications -8.7%, prior 8.0%
  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.25%, prior 0.1%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s going to be 31 degrees here in the U.K. today and hotter elsewhere in Europe so watch out you don’t look too suntanned on all those zoom calls! I’ll stay inside today as I ventured out for 45 minutes yesterday and got quite bad hey fever. Mine usually stops in April but I noticed the pollen count is currently “very high”. One strong antihistamine in the evening did the trick though.

From pollen counts to R numbers and in spite of news that 29 US states now have an R number above 1, markets continued to perform well yesterday as data improved and reopening plans progressed. That tension between stimulus and second waves/extended first waves remains, but the former continues to win out. The S&P 500 ended the session up +0.43%, while the NASDAQ rose +0.74% to reach another record high. The S&P was up as much as +1.20% until just around 2pm NY time, before case data from Florida and Texas showed that the economy may need to deal with a slower reopening process at the very least. Superior gains were seen in Europe (which closed before the dip), with the STOXX 600 advancing +1.30%, and the DAX seeing an even stronger +2.13% move higher. Meanwhile Wirecard went from the worst to the best performer in the STOXX 600 yesterday, with a +34.99% advance. Oil looked to be a beneficiary of the risk on sentiment, with Brent crude rising to its highest level ($43.19) since early March midday U.K. time before reports of a 7.1 magnitude earthquake near Oaxaca, Mexico caused Brent futures to fall around 3% to finish down -1.04% for the day.

Elsewhere in financial markets, the dollar continued to sell-off yesterday with a further -0.40% decline. Sovereign bonds also sold off, with yields on 10yr Treasuries (+0.3bps), bunds (+3.1bps) both rising, though Italian BTPs outperformed as 10yr yields fell by -3.1bps to their lowest level since late March. Meanwhile it wasn’t all bad news for the traditional safe havens, with gold advancing a further +0.80% to hit a fresh 7-year high.

In terms of the latest on the coronavirus let’s look at the US first. As discussed at the top, according to the rtlive website, 29 US states have an Rt figure above 1 now. This is up from 5 states 2 months back during lockdowns and 23 states a month back after the majority of lockdowns were lifted. Meanwhile the number of cases in Florida rose by a further +3.3%, though this was slightly below the previous 7-day average of +3.8%. The number of positive tests in the state rose to 10.9% yesterday from 7.7% over the weekend. California reported its biggest daily increase, 7923 new cases, while also seeing a slight increase in positive test rates – 4.9% from 4.8%. California Governor Newsome indicated that he did not want the return of stay-at-home orders, but is prepared to do so if numbers get worse. Arizona continues to see record case growth, with over 3779 new additions, as cases rose by 6.9%, above the weekly average of 5.8%. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top US infectious-disease expert, has termed the surge in cases as “disturbing”.

In Texas, ICU numbers in Harris Country (3rd most populous county in the US with roughly 5 million people and encompassing Houston) will be exhausted in 11 days based on case growth over the past two weeks, according to the state. The state as a whole saw over 5195 cases yesterday, another record.

In light of the recent rise in US cases, and citing the country’s inability to control the outbreak, European Union officials may exclude the US from plans to reopen the borders next month, according to draft lists reported on by the New York Times. Europe itself continues to see small splashes of case growth. In Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia became the first state to restore a lockdown. It is only on the town in which the large meat factory saw a total of 1553 infections so far, and will initially remain until the end of June. On the other hand, the UK recorded its second day in a row with under 1000 new infections yesterday, a feat unseen since late March.

In further signs of progress here in the UK, we had Prime Minister Johnson announce a substantial easing of restrictions yesterday in England, which will come into effect from July 4. Independence Day of a different kind. The measures includes an easing in the 2m social distancing rule, to a “one metre plus” rule, meaning that people should keep one metre apart but employ measures such as changing office layouts that reduce the risks of transmission. Otherwise, the government is changing their advice such that two households of any size can meet inside, and pubs, restaurants and hairdressers (not relevant to me) will also be able to reopen. That said, there are some “close proximity” venues that will remain shut, including indoor gyms, swimming pools and nightclubs. Even as the government continues to reopen the economy, the country’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty expects coronavirus to be circulating well into Spring 2021. We’re truly in for the long haul it seems.

Elsewhere, there are concerns emerging around a second wave in Australia in the state of Victoria, with the state’s Health Minister Jenny Mikakos saying overnight that the R number in the past week had risen to an “unacceptably high” rate of 2.5. Mexico also reported their highest daily new case count yesterday, at 6228, with growth rate in new cases jumping to 3.4% from a 5 day average of 3%.

Overnight, markets have been fairly uneventful in Asia with newsflow fairly light. The Nikkei (-0.09%) is down while, the Hang Seng (+0.06%), ASX (+0.36%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.15%) are modestly up. The Kospi (+1.55%) is outperforming on news that Kim Jong Un has ordered the suspension of military actions against South Korea during a military commission meeting for his ruling Worker’s Party of Korea (according to the KCNA report). Elsewhere, WTI oil prices are down -0.62% after a report from the American Petroleum Institute indicated that crude inventories climbed by 1.75 million barrels last week, marking the third consecutive weekly gain if confirmed. Futures on the S&P 500 are trading flat.

Back to yesterday and it was upside surprises on the flash PMIs that helped encourage the rising risk appetite in markets. We thought consensus was looking too low and this is what transpired. In terms of the details, the main story was that the numbers in Europe surprised noticeably to the upside. The Euro Area composite PMI rebounded to 47.5 (vs. 43.0 expected), while the composite PMIs in France (51.3), Germany (45.8) and the UK (47.6) all beat expectations too. France was the only one of the European releases to see a rebound above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction, but we shouldn’t over-interpret the German underperformance relative to France, since the PMI responses measure changes rather than levels, and since Germany didn’t shut down as severely it’s no surprise that its rebound isn’t as pronounced. The US PMIs for manufacturing (49.6) and services (46.7) were both slightly below expectations, but this was still a rebound from the high-30s numbers seen in May.

The other main news story from yesterday was confirmation that there would be a summit of EU leaders in person on July 17th-18th to discuss the recovery fund. That’ll come a day after the ECB’s next decision on the 16th, so certainly a week for your calendars. Remember however that our European economists wrote last week (link here) that it’s questionable whether a compromise on this issue can be found within just 4 weeks, and the issues still to be resolved are many and complex. So expect a Recovery Fund but don’t get too excited on the timings yet.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, new home sales in the US rebounded to an annualised rate of 676k in May (vs. 640k expected). Separately, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey for June also beat expectations, with a 0 reading (vs. -2 expected).

To the day ahead now, and today’s data includes June’s Ifo survey from Germany, French business confidence for June, while from the US there’s April’s FHFA house price index and the weekly MBA mortgage applications. In terms of central banks speakers, we’ll hear from the ECB’s chief economist Lane, as well as the Fed’s Evans and Bullard. Finally, the IMF will be releasing their latest World Economic Outlook Update today.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/31ceYdC Tyler Durden

US Draws Up Plan To Slap Tariffs On $3.1 Billion In European Goods

US Draws Up Plan To Slap Tariffs On $3.1 Billion In European Goods

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/24/2020 – 06:48

Back in October, the World Trade Organizations announced that the US could legally retaliate against the EU by slapping new tariffs on some $7.5 billion in European exports as punishment for the Europeans providing illegal government subsidies to Airbus. At the time, we warned that this was like throwing gasoline on the embers of the US-EU trade spat as the Trump administration auto tariffs still loomed large over the global economic landscape.

Since then, the US has imposed some of those tariffs. Now, Robert Lighthizer has a plan for the last $3.1 billion

In keeping with the ruling, the Office of the Trade Rep has finally come up with a list of European goods to be targeted by these tariffs. But Lighthizer & Co. are also planning to increase tariffs on other European goodsfrom aircraft and aircraft parts to dairy products like cheese and yogurt according to a notice published late Tuesday evening outlining the department’s actions, and opening a month-long comment period to solicit feedback before pushing ahead.

Review of Action Enforcement of U.S. WTO Rights in Large Civil Aircraft Dispute June 23 2020 by Zerohedge on Scribd

According to Bloomberg, if the US follows through with this plan, it could hammer European luxury brands and spirit makers at a time when those businesses are already feeling a serious pinch from the coronavirus outbreak, which has hurt consumption of liquor at restaurants and social gatherings (while many have been buying more booze to enjoy at home).

If the U.S. follows through with its plan, it could hammer European luxury brands like Givenchy and Hermes — which produce leather goods — and Remy Cointreau and Pernod Ricard, which make cognac and champagne. LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton would be particularly vulnerable because it produces a wide array of these products.

Tariffs on British gin could increase U.S. prices at peak season for gin-and-tonics, potentially hurting British spirits companies like Diageo Plc, the London-based maker of Tanqueray; James Burrough, the maker of Beefeater gin; and William Grant & Sons, the maker of Hendricks gin.

German imported beer would also take a hit, potentially giving a boost to the oversaturated American craft beer market.

New U.S. duties might also dampen demand for German beer ahead of any Oktoberfest celebrations that aren’t already canceled because of the coronavirus.

The addtional import taxes would already add to the 25% tariff the U.S. imposed last year on imports of Scotch and Irish Whisky and liqueurs and cordials from Germany, Ireland, Italy, Spain, and UK.

The Distilled Spirits Council in the U.S. said it opposed any additional spirits tariffs, which would “escalate trade tensions across the Atlantic and further jeopardize American companies and hospitality jobs already under duress as a result of COVID-19,” according to a statement.

BBG explains that the strategy employed by the US Trade Rep is known as “carousel retaliation”, whereby the industries targeted by tariffs are occasionally shifted to spread the pain around, and inject additional pain due to the “uncertainty” of who will be targeted next.

In the meantime, Trump’s top trade official, Robert Lighthizer, has sought to increase pressure on the Europeans by deploying a particularly damaging tactic called “carousel retaliation,” whereby a country periodically shifts tariffs on different groups of goods.

Tuesday’s USTR notice is a reminder that the U.S.’s tariff targets may shift or be subject to higher levies — a strategy that spreads the sanctions pain across an array of industries, creating uncertainty for businesses and headaches for exporters and importers alike.

Earlier this year the U.S. deployed its carousel retaliation strategy to increase tariffs on exports of Airbus aircraft and parts from 10% to 15%. To date the U.S. has only deployed tariffs on goods worth about half of its permitted retaliation levels.

Lighthizer said his goal in increasing tariffs is to persuade the EU to agree to a settlement. But talks between the U.S. and the EU have floundered this year, and now the EU is preparing to retaliate with new tariffs against an array of politically sensitive U.S. industries.

Both sides also have the option of reaching a settlement, but the talks have reportedly become fairly contentious, prompting the Europeans to back out. This is why Lighthizer is opting for the extra-painful “carousel” approach: The US is ratcheting up the pressure on the Europeans to cave and strike a deal.

But with everything going on, they’ll likely only succeed in angering Brussels. As the world digs itself out from the coronavirus crisis, the US’s position is clear: It’s every nation for themselves. We’ll see how they – and the market – like it when the EU responds by slapping tariffs on some $11.2 billion in US goods.

With so much at stake, it’s hardly a surprise the market is off this morning.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2B4Hbby Tyler Durden

Woke Authors Quit JK Rowling’s Agency After It Refuses To Cave To Trans Mob

Woke Authors Quit JK Rowling’s Agency After It Refuses To Cave To Trans Mob

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/24/2020 – 05:00

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

At least four authors have severed ties with the literary agency representing them and JK Rowling, after it refused to distance itself from remarks made by the Harry Potter author on transgender issues.

The authors, all identifying under the LGBTQIA umbrella, issued a joint statement resigning from The Blair Partnership that said “This decision is not made lightly, and we are saddened and disappointed it has come to this.”

“After J. K. Rowling’s — who is also signed to the agency — public comments on transgender issues, we reached out to the agency with an invitation to reaffirm their stance to transgender rights and equality.” the statement further explains.

“We felt that they were unable to commit to any action that we thought was appropriate and meaningful.” the authors said.

In other words, the agency wouldn’t publicly condemn Rowling’s opinions on biological sex.

“Freedom of speech can only be upheld if the structural inequalities that hinder equal opportunities for underrepresented groups are challenged and changed.” the authors further wrote.

In a statement of response, The Blair Partnership wrote “We support the rights of all of our clients to express their thoughts and beliefs, and we believe in freedom of speech. Publishing and the creative arts are dependent on these things. It is our duty, as an agency to support all of our clients in this fundamental freedom and we do not comment on their individual views.”

“To reiterate, we believe in freedom of speech for all; these clients have decided to leave because we did not meet their demands to be re-educated to their point of view,” the agency shot back.

It’s somewhat unsurprising that the agency backed Rowling, given that the Harry Potter books are a tad more popular than the Trans Teen Survival Guide and other virtually unknown titles published by the four woke authors.

The development comes a week after staff at Publishing house Hachette threatened to quit unless the company cancels its association with JK Rowling and scraps plans to publish her new book because they argue the author is ‘transphobic’.

The Daily Mail reported that “Staff in the children’s department at Hachette announced they were no longer prepared to work on the book” over Rowling’s recent assertions that biological sex is real and that there are only two genders.

Hachette is backing Rowling, having issued a statement saying “We are proud to publish JK Rowling’s children’s fairy tale The Ickabog. Freedom of speech is the cornerstone of publishing.”

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2VeftQp Tyler Durden

Brickbat: I Fart in Your General Direction

badsmell_1161x653

Police in Vienna, Austria, fined a man €500 (about $564) for releasing “a massive intestinal wind in the immediate vicinity of the officers.” Police say the man “had already behaved in a provocative and uncooperative manner” when they approached him as he sat on a park bench and tried to talk to him.

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Brickbat: I Fart in Your General Direction

badsmell_1161x653

Police in Vienna, Austria, fined a man €500 (about $564) for releasing “a massive intestinal wind in the immediate vicinity of the officers.” Police say the man “had already behaved in a provocative and uncooperative manner” when they approached him as he sat on a park bench and tried to talk to him.

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Half A Million Users Uninstall French Contact Tracing App As It Fails To Engage Users

Half A Million Users Uninstall French Contact Tracing App As It Fails To Engage Users

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/24/2020 – 04:15

New York City, Norway and Germany have each struggled to get their contact-tracing programs off the ground. In NYC, an army of 3,000 contact tracers has struggled to glean information from a reluctant patient population. In Norway, objections from a data privacy watchdog compounded with low usage levels led the project to be mostly abandoned.

In the US and Europe, contact-tracing apps have been controversial as many have alleged these government-sponsored tracking apps infringe on people’s rights by collecting location data, while doing little to uncover early infections, since infections involving random passing encounters with asymptomatic patients are relatively rare.

Now, French public health officials are running into a similar problem as the much-heralded new phone app for tracking coronavirus cases has only alerted 14 people that they were at risk of infection since its launch three weeks ago, according to France’s digital affairs minister, while almost half a million users have chosen to uninstall the app.

Here’s how it works: The StopCovid app keeps track of users who have been in close proximity of one another over a two-week period. If any become infected, they inform the platform, which alerts the others.

French officials defended the app as a vital tool for slowing the spread of COVID-19, although critics expressed data privacy concerns.

Since its launch, 68 people informed the platform they had been infected and only 14 users were alerted that they were now at risk.

Still, government ministers defended the app, saying its lack of usefulness is due to the fact that the outbreak in France had mostly died down. Already, 460,000 users have uninstalled the app, leaving only 1.5 million users across the whole country, which has a population of roughly 67 million.

The government will pay roughly $91,000 to $136,000 a month for app-related expenses like hosting and development work, though these costs could rise with another spike.

Britain abandoned its own contact tracing app plan a few months ago when major flaws emerged in testing, prompting a public outcry.

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Indiana Supreme Court Creates a Clear Split on Compelled Decryption and the Fifth Amendment

The Indiana Supreme Court has handed down a decision in a compelled decryption case, Seo v. State, that creates a clear split in the lower courts on how the Fifth Amendment privilege against self-incrimination applies to compelled unlocking of a phone.  The split means that there’s a chance the U.S. Supreme Court might review the decision, and they’re likely to take a case on this issue soon even if they don’t take this particular one.

This post summarizes the legal issue, explains the new decision, and then considers the chances the U.S. Supreme Court might agree to take the case if the losing party seeks further review.  (It’s a long post, but I promise a fascinating federal courts problem at the end. No, really!)

I. Two Approaches to the Law of Compelled Unlocking

Imagine investigators have a search warrant to search a locked electronic device like a cell phone. They can’t unlock it, however, because they don’t know the password.  The government obtains an order directing a person known to use the phone to enter in the password (without disclosing the password to the government) and hand over the unlocked device.  But the recipient person refuses to comply,  asserting his Fifth Amendment privilege against self-incrimination.

How should a court rule?

Under the relevant Supreme Court precedents, courts have to consider two questions.  First, what is the testimonial aspect of the compelled act?  In other words, what does the order try to compel the person to implicitly speak?  And second, does the government already know that implied speech, or is it using the compelled act to learn it?

If the government already knows the implicit speech, the Fifth Amendment is no barrier under what is called the “foregone conclusion” doctrine.  If the government is trying to compel the act to learn the implicit speech, however, the privilege applies and blocks the order.

Courts have struggled to answer how these principles apply to a compelled order to enter in a password to unlock a phone or other electronic device.  Two basic views have emerged.

The first view is that the only implicit testimony is “I know the password.” If you are ordered to enter in a password, and you enter in the password that unlocks the phone, the only implied statement you have made is that you knew the password and therefore could enter it.  Under this view, the government can compel an act of entering in the password, defeating the Fifth Amendment objection, when the government already knows that the person knows the password.

I have argued for this first view in a 2019 article, Compelled Decryption and the Privilege Against Self-Incrimination. This view has been adopted by a few courts, most importantly the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court in Commonwealth v. Jones (2019).

The second view is that unlocking the phone implies more testimony than just “I know the password.”  Unlocking the phone is a gateway to a treasure of potential evidence.  The ability to unlock the phone implies control of the phone, and control of the phone implies control of its contents.  Under this view, the government needs more evidence to compel an act of entering in the password than merely that the person knows the password. Exactly what else the government needs to know can vary, but it might include what incriminating contents are on the phone or what the person knows about those incriminating contents.

This second view has been argued for by scholarship including Laurent Sacharoff’s article responding to me, What Am I Really Saying When I Open My Smartphone? A Response to Orin S. Kerr.  This view also has been adopted by a few courts, although the most important decision, the 11th Circuit’s 2011 ruling in In re Subpoena Duces Tecum, is notably unclear about its precise reasoning.

Despite all the lower court uncertainty on how the law applies to this important fact pattern, the missing link has been a clear split among courts recognized by the U.S. Supreme Court’s Rule 10.  Rule 10 is the rule on considerations about what cases to take.  Under that rule, the Supreme Court reviewing cert petitions mostly looks for splits within the set of federal circuit courts and state supreme courts.  We haven’t yet had a clear split for Rule 10 purposes, however, because the 11th Circuit’s ruling was too murky.

That is, until today.  As of this morning, we have our split thanks to the Supreme Court of Indiana’s ruling in Seo v. State.

II.  The Facts and New Ruling in Seo v. State

Katelin Seo was arrested for harassing and stalking a man we know only as “D.S.” Searching Seo upon her arrest revealed her locked iPhone 7 Plus.  The government obtained a search warrant to search the phone and a second warrant ordering Seo to unlock the phone to help the government execute the first warrant.  Seo asserted her Fifth Amendment privilege.

The Indiana Supreme Court sustained the assertion of privilege.  In its view, the government could not force Seo to unlock her phone.

The court adopted the second view described above.  According to the court, being forced to unlock a phone reveals a breadth of factual information beyond that a person knows the password:

[T]he act of production doctrine links the physical act to the documents ultimately produced. See Laurent Sacharoff, What Am I Really Saying When I Open My Smartphone? A Response to Orin S. Kerr, 97 Tex. L. Rev. Online 63, 68 (2019). And the foregone conclusion exception relies on this link by asking whether the government can show it already knows the documents exist, are in the suspect’s possession, and are authentic. Id. True, the documents’ contents are not protected by the Fifth Amendment because the government did not compel their creation. See Doe I, 465 U.S. at 611–12; Fisher, 425 U.S. at 409–10. But the specific documents “ultimately produced” implicitly communicate factual assertions solely through their production. See Hubbell, 530 U.S. at 36 & n.19, 45.

When extending these observations to the act of producing an unlocked smartphone, we draw two analogies. First, entering the password to unlock the device is analogous to the physical act of handing over documents. Sacharoff, supra, at 68. And second, the files on the smartphone are analogous to the documents ultimately produced. Id.

Thus, a suspect surrendering an unlocked smartphone implicitly communicates, at a minimum, three things: (1) the suspect knows the password; (2) the files on the device exist; and (3) the suspect possessed those files. And, unless the State can show it already knows this information, the communicative aspects of the production fall within the Fifth Amendment’s protection. Otherwise, the suspect’s compelled act will communicate to the State information it did not previously know— precisely what the privilege against self-incrimination is designed to prevent. See Couch v. United States, 409 U.S. 322, 328 (1973).

This leads us to the following inquiry: has the State shown that (1) Seo knows the password for her iPhone; (2) the files on the device exist; and (3) she possessed those files?

The state failed to meet that burden.  True, the government had a search warrant based on probable cause to search the phone. That satisfied the Fourth Amendment.  But the court suggests that the wish to search the phone also makes it problematic from a Fifth Amendment perspective.  The government was using the search warrant to “scour the device” for evidence, and that evidence was incriminating.

Thus, the Fifth Amendment blocked the compelled unlocking:

Even if we assume the State has shown that Seo knows the password to her smartphone, the State has failed to demonstrate that any particular files on the device exist or that she possessed those files. Detective Inglis simply confirmed that he would be fishing for “incriminating evidence” from the device. He believed Seo—to carry out the alleged crimes—was using an application or internet program to disguise her phone number.

Yet, the detective’s own testimony confirms that he didn’t know which applications or files he was searching for:

“There are numerous, and there’s probably some that I’m not even aware of, numerous entities out there like Google Voice and Pinger and Text Now and Text Me, and I don’t know, I don’t have an all-encompassing list of them, however if I had the phone I could see which ones she had accessed through Google.”

In sum, law enforcement sought to compel Seo to unlock her iPhone so that it could then scour the device for incriminating information. And Seo’s act of producing her unlocked smartphone would provide the State with information that it does not already know. But, as we’ve explained above, the Fifth Amendment’s privilege against compulsory self-incrimination prohibits such a result. Indeed, to hold otherwise would sound “the death knell for a constitutional protection against compelled self-incrimination in the digital age.” Commonwealth v. Jones, 117 N.E.3d 702, 724 (Mass. 2019) (Lenk, J., concurring); see also Davis, 220 A.3d at 549 (“[T]o apply the foregone conclusion rationale in these circumstances would allow the exception to swallow the constitutional privilege.”).

The court next offered three reasons why “extending” the foregone conclusion doctrine to smartphones was “concerning.”  First, phones store a tremendous amount of information:

Recall that, in Hubbell, the Government had not shown that it had any prior knowledge of either the existence or location of 13,120 pages of documents. 530 U.S. at 45. Though not an insignificant amount of information, it pales in comparison to what can be stored on today’s smartphones. Indeed, the cheapest model of last year’s top-selling smartphone, with a capacity of 64 gigabytes of data, can hold over 4,000,000 pages of documents—more than 300 times the number of pages produced in Hubbell. 5 It is no exaggeration to describe a smartphone’s passcode as “the proverbial ‘key to a man’s kingdom.'” United States v. Djibo, 151 F. Supp. 3d 297, 310 (E.D.N.Y. 2015).

Second, allowing the government to compel unlocking the phone would raise additional complicated questions once the search was underway that were avoided by not allowing the search at all:

For example, if officers searching a suspect’s smartphone encounter an application or website protected by another password, will they need a separate motion to compel the suspect to unlock that application or website? And would the foregone conclusion exception apply to that act of production as well? Suppose law enforcement opens an application or website and the password populates automatically. Can officers legally access that information? Or what if a suspect has a cloud-storage service—like iCloud or Dropbox—installed on the device, which could contain hundreds of thousands of files. Can law enforcement look at those documents, even though this windfall would be equivalent to identifying the location of a locked storage facility that officers did not already know existed? Such complexity is neither necessary nor surprising: the foregone conclusion exception is, in this context, a low-tech peg in a cutting-edge hole.

Third, it was unwise to take a broad view of the foregone conclusion doctrine in light of its uncertain basis,  its uncertain future at the U.S. Supreme Court, and the effect of technological change:

Not only was the exception crafted for a vastly different context, but extending it further would mean expanding a decades-old and narrowly defined legal exception to dynamically developing technology that was in its infancy just a decade ago. And it would also result in narrowing a constitutional right.

Two Justices dissented, mostly (but not entirely) on mootness grounds.  Here’s the potential problem.  Seo had refused to unlock the phone, had been held in contempt, appealed, and then, while the case was on appeal, reached a deal with the government and pled guilty to the crime.  Wait, the dissenters argued, isn’t the case now moot?  Seo was held in civil contempt, but there is no longer a case left on which the civil contempt can relate.  The court shouldn’t reach the constitutional question.  (I’ll say more on this below.)

One of the two dissents, by Justice Massa, did express a view on the underlying Fifth Amendment question:

[T]his Fifth Amendment question is the closest of close calls. Courts around the country split, falling into two camps. See generally Orin S. Kerr, Compelled Decryption and the Privilege Against Self-Incrimination, 97 Tex. L. Rev. 767 (2019); Laurent Sacharoff, What Am I Really Saying When I Open My Smartphone? A Response to Orin S. Kerr, 97 Tex. L. Rev. Online 63 (2019). Reasonable minds can disagree; indeed, many have. Our Court’s decision on the merits today is thus not unreasonable, though I would come out the other way for the reasons further explained by Professor Kerr.

 

III.  Will the U.S. Supreme Court Take the Case?

So the battle is joined.  If the state seeks further review, will the U.S. Supreme Court take the case?

On one hand, we now have a clear split.  The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court and the Indiana Supreme Court clearly and completely disagree on how the law applies.  Even putting aside the 11th Circuit’s opinion, given its murkiness, we now have a very stark split. The courts disagree in a way that will be outcome determinative in many cases.

Further, this is a very important question in modern criminal investigations.  Indeed, 22 states recently joined an amicus brief asking the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene and settle this area.  It seems very likely that the U.S. Supreme Court will review this eventually, and the fact that we now have a clear split makes reviewing Seo a definite possibility if the state seeks review.

On the other hand, there are two issues that give me some pause.

First, is the split deep enough?  The Justices like for the issues they get to “percolate,” giving lower courts a chance to take several cracks at them to really explore the different ways the law might apply before the U.S. Supreme Court steps in.  It’s a way to lessen the chances of error when cases reach Washington, DC. Lower courts explore all the options so the Justices are less likely to miss something important.

Would the Justices want this issue to percolate?  On one hand, they can.  The same legal issue is pending before the New Jersey Supreme Court in the Andrews case (argued January 21st, 2020) and the Supreme Court of Oregon in the Pittman case (scheduled to be argued September 15th, 2020).  We don’t know when those cases would come down, and especially in the COVID era cases can take a while. The Indiana Supreme Court took over a year after the oral argument to decide Seo. But other cases are coming down the pike.

On the other hand, it’s not clear to me what further percolation would add.  This issue has been bouncing around for years.  The decisions have explored the issue well, and the two camps of thought on it have pretty firmly emerged.  There’s a lot of legal scholarship on it *cough*.  And let’s face it, it’s a really cool legal issue, too.  So maybe they’ll want to step in sooner rather than later.

A second issue is what to make of the mootness problem.  I’m not sure, but it might get in the way of the Supreme Court’s review.

Here’s the scoop. Although the majority ruled that the case was not moot, it applied Indiana’s state mootness doctrine.  State courts are not bound by the Article III limits on the power of federal courts.  And it turns out that Indiana’s state mootness doctrine is less strict than federal Article III mootness doctrine.

This creates a really interesting dynamic. Although the case is not moot under state law’s standard, the dissenting Justices argue that would be moot under the federal Article III standard.  If that’s right, it means that the state court used a power that federal courts don’t have to decide the case. As Justice Massa notes, the court “use[d] a federally moot case to decide an important question of federal constitutional law.”

That raises a fun law nerd question I am not quite sure how to answer: Can the U.S. Supreme Court even agree to hear this case?  If a state case is moot under a federal Article III mootness standard, but the state court decides a federal issue under the more relaxed state law mootness standard, can the U.S. Supreme Court review the state court’s resolution of the federal question?

Justice Massa argues in his dissent that the U.S. Supreme Court can’t now step in, and that the inability for the Supreme Court to review the federal issue means that the state court is wrong to reach the merits:

As Justice Jackson so famously proclaimed about the U.S. Supreme Court, “[w]e are not final because we are infallible, but we are infallible only because we are final.” Brown v. Allen, 344 U.S. 443, 540 (1953) (Jackson, J., concurring) (emphasis added). “What, indeed, might then have been only prophecy”—that our Court now firmly establishes that it will reject that finality by deciding cases that can bypass the revising authority of the U.S. Supreme Court on important questions of federal constitutional law—”has now become fact.” Martin, 14 U.S. (1 Wheat.) at 348. By deciding this case, the Court’s message is crystal clear: it will anoint itself, at times, as the final adjudicator of federal law. To this, I cannot assent.,

I don’t have a view of if this is right.  Maybe it just adds an interesting issue for Seo’s Brief in Opposition (or even an added Question Presented, if the Court grants).  But it might give the U.S. Supreme Court pause.

This post is long enough, but here’s one last thought about the Supreme Court’s possible thinking in taking cases in this area.

In addition to the compelled-pass-word-entry cases like Seo and Jones, there are also compelled-password-disclosure cases working their way up to the Supreme Court. Indeed, one of those cases is already before the Supreme Court, Pennsylvania v. Davis.  In the first kind of case, the government says, “go into a room, enter the password, and give us the phone, without telling us the password.” In the second kind of case, the government says, “tell us the password.”

Under current Fifth Amendment law, as I see it, the two kinds of cases raise different issues. The “foregone conclusion” analysis applies to compelled entry cases, as they involve acts with implied testimony.  But that doctrine shouldn’t apply to compelled disclosure cases, as they involve direct testimony. So although the facts are similar, I think the legal framework is different under existing doctrine.

The fact of these two lines of cases working their way up to the Supreme Court raises the question of whether the Court should take on the two issues together.  So far we have a split on the compelled entry issue but no split on the compelled disclosure issue. But there’s a ton of confusion about the two issues and how they relate to each other. And although I think they merit different treatment based on current doctrine, it’s unclear if the Court would stick with that doctrine when it reviews a compelled decryption case.

Where that leads me, at least, is to think that there’s a lot to be said for the Court deciding a compelled entry case and a compelled disclosure case together.  The government usually gets orders for compelled entry because they think the Fifth Amendment standard for compelled entry is easier to meet than that for compelled disclosure.  If the Court only took on a compelled entry case, where there is a clear split, you can bet that the Justices would spend a lot of time pondering how the law also applies to compelled disclosure.  Given that, I think it would make probably make sense for the Court to take on both aspects of problem at once.

As always, stay tuned.

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