COVID-19 ‘Immunity Passports’ Could Be a Good Idea

In the United Kingdom, Health Secretary Matt Hancock says that the government is looking into issuing “immunity certificates” to COVID-19 patients who have recovered from the illness. Such certificates, he told The Telegraph, would “enable people who have had the disease, have got the antibodies and therefore have immunity” to “get back as much as possible to normal life.”

Germany is also considering such a scheme, according to The Guardian. German researchers are preparing a mass study that aims to find out the extent of the pandemic by initially testing 100,000 volunteers for coronavirus antibodies. The testing would be extended to a growing sample of the population over time.

An immunity passport scheme could be piggybacked onto the testing campaign. “Those who are immune could be issued with a kind of vaccination pass that would for example allow them to exempted from restrictions on their activity,” Gerard Krause, head of epidemiology at the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, told The Guardian.

One downside of the scheme is that it might tempt some people to actively seek infection in order to obtain an immunity passport as way to get out of lockdown. That would foolish, since a good proportion of hospitalized COVID-19 patients are young or have no risk factors. Peter Openshaw, professor of experimental medicine at Imperial College London, warned the Guardian that this “would be putting your life at risk to try and catch it at the moment.” Better, he argued, “to adhere to social distancing and to wait for the vaccine.”

Nonetheless, this has at least some potential as a way to loosen the ties that have brought so much work and so many lives to a standstill. At the very least, it’s an idea our officials should explore.

 

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Federal Prison System Goes Into Lockdown Mode To Prevent Virus Outbreak

Federal Prison System Goes Into Lockdown Mode To Prevent Virus Outbreak

The Bureau of Federal Prisons (BOP) issued an order this week, directing all prisons to lockdown facilities and keep inmates in cells for two weeks. The order will affect 122 federal prison facilities across the country.

Bureau Director Michael Carvajal activated “Phase 5 of its COVID-19 Action Plan” on April 1. Here are the following “Phase 5” actions that BOP will conduct to “further mitigate the exposure and spread of COVID-19:”

  • For a 14-day period, inmates in every institution will be secured in their assigned cells/quarters to decrease the spread of the virus. This modification to our action plan is based on health concerns, not disruptive inmate behavior.
  • During this time, to the extent practicable, inmates should still have access to programs and services that are offered under normal operating procedures, such as mental health treatment and education.
  • In addition, the Bureau is coordinating with the United States Marshals Service (USMS) to significantly decrease incoming movement during this time.
  • After 14 days, this decision will be reevaluated and a decision made as to whether or not to return to modified operations.
  • Limited group gathering will be afforded to the extent practical to facilitate commissary, laundry, showers, telephone, and Trust Fund Limited Inmate Computer System (TRULINCS) access.

However, “Phase 5” did not include any new measures that would protect guards and other prison staff employees from contracting the virus.

Last week, the BOP said it had “increased” COVID-19 screening for inmates and staff as cases and deaths surged across the country. New prisoners are to be quarantined for two weeks before placed into the system, while no visitors are allowed during the pandemic.

 

We recently noted that the pandemic had turned the country’s jails and prisons into ticking time bombs that could amplify the public health crisis.

The prison system across the country has been thrown into crisis. Earlier this week, chief doctor at Rikers Island, New York City’s largest jail, warned that a “public health disaster is unfolding before our eyes.”

In California, 3,500 prisoners were released early this week to reduce the spreading of the virus in the jail system. The trend across the country has been much of the same, as prisoners test positives for the infection, more are being released early to avoid an outbreak.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 17:00

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Watch Live: Trump Holds Thursday Briefing Amid Reports White House Will Push Masks On Public

Watch Live: Trump Holds Thursday Briefing Amid Reports White House Will Push Masks On Public

Following reports about the administration deciding on an official ‘recommendation’ that the public wear facemasks when outside, President Trump, Vice President Pence and the rest of the White House coronavirus task force are holding their Thursday press briefing.

Over the last day, questions about the timing of the stimulus checks and anger over the imminent fate of the Navy commander of the USS Theodore Roosevelt have been big parts of the political conversation, along with the never-ending debate about the administration’s handling of the response.

The White House and CDC have hesitated to officially recommend that Americans wear masks while in public as evidence has mounted showing they do help combat spread. Though there’s still some evidence to suggest that they do little to protect the uninfected, even those studies suggest that the masks help infected people avoid spreading the virus.

Of course it’s hardly surprising that they hesitated – crowds of people wearing facemasks haven’t been normalized in North America yet. But with so few people in the streets, at least Americans can ease into the uneasiness.

Watch Thursday’s live feed:


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 16:55

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Peter Schiff: It’s Not Going To Be Fine

Peter Schiff: It’s Not Going To Be Fine

Via SchiffGold.com,

We just wrapped up the worst first quarter in the history of the US stock market. Think about that in context. Even during the dark days of the Great Depression, there has never been a worse start to a year for the US stock market than 2020.

Nevertheless, there are still a lot of people out there who think this is going to be a short bear market. As Peter Schiff put it in his podcast, that’s because they’re still fixated on the pin.

They’re still looking at the fact that ‘Oh, this is man-made.’ I keep hearing people saying, ‘We did this to ourselves. This is not a real bear market. This is not a real recession.’ You know, because we decided to shut down the economy. So, all we have to do is decide to start it back up again and everything is going to be fine.

Further driving this myth is the notion that as long as the Federal Reserve can print up enough money between now and then to bail everybody out, everything will be OK.

This is all wishful thinking. It’s all part of the delusion. It’s not going to be fine. Because it wasn’t fine before the crisis. We didn’t have a solid economy. We had a bubble. That’s the problem. And the bubble has been pricked. There is no way to go back to where we were. It’s like trying to unscramble an egg. It can’t be done.”

The markets and the economy are scrambled. You can’t put it back the way it was.

In an interview on the Tom Woods show, Doug Casey argued that what we’re seeing today is really an extension of the 2008 financial crisis.

The financial crisis that started in 2008, view it as entering the leading edge of a gigantic hurricane. And we went through that leading edge and you’ll recall, it was quite scary and unpleasant in 2008 and 9 and 10. And we’ve been in the eye of the storm since then. Big hurricane, big eye. But now we’re entering into the trailing edge of the storm, and it’s going to be much longer-lasting and much worse and much different than what we had back in 2008, 9 and 10.”

Casey went on to make the exact same point as Peter.

I’m sorry that this is all going to be blamed on the current coronavirus hysteria, however, because that’s just the accidental pin that broke the bubble.”

Peter summed it up this way.

It doesn’t matter that the wound was self-inflicted. We’ve still got the wound. And we can’t heal it because we didn’t wound a healthy economy.”

Now some people will argue the Fed and the government managed to put it back together after the 2008 crisis. With more than a decade of easy-money policy, they were able to reflate the bubble. But that merely created the eye of the storm. It’s didn’t make the storm go away. In fact, the Fed’s cure actually made the storm worse.

Regardless, the mainstream is hailing the Federal Reserve and the US government”t as the “savior of the economy. Peter said that the idea is ludicrous.

They think these guys are saving the economy. Just like there was that famous Atlantic magazine cover – Ben Bernanke. They said he was the savior of the economy. He didn’t save the economy. He set us up for this collapse. It’s the free market that would have saved the economy. Not these central planners. I mean, do you think the way to save capitalism is to have the government micromanage and centrally plan that recovery? To pick the winners and losers? To funnel bailout money to whoever they want? Is that it? Does central planning work? It’s never worked.”

They can’t save the economy. But they’re trying to save the bubble. Peter said that is a mistake. In fact, it’s exactly what they did before and that brought us to where we are today. Furthermore, Peter says he doesn’t think they can reflate the bubble again.

It’s impossible. They’re not going to do it. They’re going to destroy the dollar in the process and we’re going to have this massive inflation.”

in other words, all of the Fed’s efforts to “help” are actually hurting. In an earlier podcast, Peter said that hyperinflation has gone from the worst-case scenario to the most probable scenario.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 16:45

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Coronavirus Gives the Illiberal Right Fever Dreams of Power

“In this time of global pandemic,” Harvard law professor and anti-liberal vanguardist Adrian Vermeule writes in the third paragraph of a much-discussed new Atlantic essay, “it has become clear that a just governing order must have ample power to cope with large-scale crises of public health and well-being—reading ‘health’ in many senses, not only literal and physical but also metaphorical and social.” This aggrandizement of executive power, Vermeule posited, should be constitutionally lubrciated by “an illiberal legalism that is not ‘conservative’ at all, insofar as standard conservatism is content to play defensively within the procedural rules of the liberal order.”

Italics—and direct warning—his.

As viral fate would have it, Vermeule’s philo-Falangist manifesto appeared just one day after the global poster-child for aspirationally illiberal conservatism, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, was gifted by a parliament he already dominates the power to rule by decree, suspend elections indefinitely, and imprison journalists for up to five years for publishing fake news about the coronavirus.

Vermeule’s vision of “ensur[ing] that the ruler has the power needed to rule well” was thus effectuated by the world leader who most embodies the new nationalism that’s gaining steam on the intellectual right, in the United States and elsewhere. “You are thinkers, but we are doers,” Orbán told a rapt audience two months ago at the National Conservatism Conference in Rome, where conservative intellectuals such as Rod Dreher and Yoram Hazony rubbed elbows with continental nationalists such as Marion Marechal. “Politics is about making decisions, gaining and keeping the trust of the nation, and getting the power and keeping the power.”

Orbán, like Vermeuele and other American integralists, is saying the loud part loud. “Liberal democracy…is over,” he proclaimed in Rome, while swatting around softball how-do-you-do-it questions from former American Enterprise Institute president and Reagan administration official Chris DeMuth. “We need something new. We can call it illiberal, we can call it post-liberal, you can call it Christian democratic, whatever, but we need something new, because on that [former] basis we cannot provide good governance for the people. So we developed a new theory and a new approach: that is Christian democracy. And instead of liberal freedom we use Christian liberty.”

The “liberalism” that this new right is fighting is not limited to woke progressivism, fond though they may be of detecting “cultural Marxists” in every bureaucracy, newspaper, and university. No, they mean very directly to smote “classical liberals” as well. Just as the rising left-populists of the Jeremy Corbyn or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) type despise “neoliberals,” their equally rising right-wing counterparts condemn the market-fundamentalist and hyper-individualist shibboleths that for too long (in their view) held sway in the democratic West.

“The Court’s jurisprudence on free speech, abortion, sexual liberties, and related matters will prove vulnerable under a regime of common-good constitutionalism,” muses Vermeule, before shifting to a more pronounced Bane-like tone. “The claim, from the notorious joint opinion in Planned Parenthood v. Casey, that each individual may ‘define one’s own concept of existence, of meaning, of the universe, and of the mystery of human life’ should be not only rejected but stamped as abominable, beyond the realm of the acceptable forever after. So too should the libertarian assumptions central to free-speech law and free-speech ideology—that government is forbidden to judge the quality and moral worth of public speech, that ‘one man’s vulgarity is another’s lyric,’ and so on—fall under the ax. Libertarian conceptions of property rights and economic rights will also have to go.”

At some point it becomes wise to take self-declared enemies of liberalism at their word. More still when real-life politicians start acting out those power fantasies.

Sure enough, there has been no shortage this week of western news organizations sounding the alarm bell at right-wing nationalists exercising heightened powers to combat COVID-19 worldwide: Orbán in Hungary, Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, Aleksandar Vučić in Serbia, Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines. Usually these pieces come with observation that many of these leaders maintain close relationships with President Donald Trump.

But this is where the conventional narrative about creeping global corona-fascism begins to founder. Because do you know who else gets the Friend of Trump treatment about COVID-19 policy? Politicians, at here and abroad, who take the opposite approach to coronavirus crackdowns.

“In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, Trump’s Close Ally, Dangerously Downplays the Coronavirus Risk,” goes the New Yorker headline this week. “How 2 Trump-loving governors are struggling amid the coronavirus crisis,” runs today’s offering at CNN. There are generally no such dot-connecting ideological/partisan exercises when the laissez-faire governmental responses come from populist lefties, as in Nicragua, Mexico, and (until recently) New York City.

Meanwhile, a whole commentary cottage industry has arisen over outraged non-conservatives urgently demanding that the president they despise wave the presidential wand to control the entire country’s behavior. “It is time for a national lockdown,” The New York Times editorialized last week. The longtime progressive website Common Dreams had a remarkable headline two days later: “As Trump Snubs Restrictions to Contain Coronavirus, New Poll Shows 3 in 4 Americans Back a National Lockdown.”

As ever, it takes libertarians to bring up rights in the midst of a national freakout. “The president doesn’t have constitutional authority to issue a national stay-at-home order, so please stop urging him to do so,” one of his fiercest critics, Rep. Justin Amash (I–Mich.) tweeted today. “He can recommend, but he doesn’t get to do whatever he wants, even in a crisis. That’s the law. That’s our Constitution. It exists to secure our rights.”

Rights, shmights, says Vermeule.

“Elaborating on the common-good principle that no constitutional right to refuse vaccination exists, constitutional law will define in broad terms the authority of the state to protect the public’s health and well-being, protecting the weak from pandemics and scourges of many kinds—biological, social, and economic—even when doing so requires overriding the selfish claims of individuals to private ‘rights,'” he wrote.

It was heartening to see so many commentators, including a few fellow-traveler nationalists on the right, flag Vermeuele’s manifesto as at the least wrongheaded and at the most frightening. But as the great libertarian legal advocate Timothy Sandefur and others have pointed out, utilitarian, will-to-power constitutionalism is a common feature in non-integrationalist legal academia as well.

And I am perhaps most alarmed by the critique that the anti-liberals get most right: that legal frameworks cannot long survive dislocating separations from the broader culture. Put more bluntly, in response to this deadly and terrifying virus, U.S. politicians are imposing, and Americans are accepting, a series of infringements on liberty more extensive and arbitrary than any I thought I’d see in my lifetime.

In order for liberalism’s enemies to be bested, there needs to be a robust liberalism left to defend. Right now, whether in politics or intellectual life or our ongoing overlapping lockdowns, there is little momentum on the side of Team Enlightenment. And we’re still nowhere close to the apex of dead bodies. As Keith E. Whittington concluded in his Volokh Conspiracy essay about Vermeuele, “Winter is coming.”

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Coronavirus Gives the Illiberal Right Fever Dreams of Power

“In this time of global pandemic,” Harvard law professor and anti-liberal vanguardist Adrian Vermeule writes in the third paragraph of a much-discussed new Atlantic essay, “it has become clear that a just governing order must have ample power to cope with large-scale crises of public health and well-being—reading ‘health’ in many senses, not only literal and physical but also metaphorical and social.” This aggrandizement of executive power, Vermeule posited, should be constitutionally lubrciated by “an illiberal legalism that is not ‘conservative’ at all, insofar as standard conservatism is content to play defensively within the procedural rules of the liberal order.”

Italics—and direct warning—his.

As viral fate would have it, Vermeule’s philo-Falangist manifesto appeared just one day after the global poster-child for aspirationally illiberal conservatism, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, was gifted by a parliament he already dominates the power to rule by decree, suspend elections indefinitely, and imprison journalists for up to five years for publishing fake news about the coronavirus.

Vermeule’s vision of “ensur[ing] that the ruler has the power needed to rule well” was thus effectuated by the world leader who most embodies the new nationalism that’s gaining steam on the intellectual right, in the United States and elsewhere. “You are thinkers, but we are doers,” Orbán told a rapt audience two months ago at the National Conservatism Conference in Rome, where conservative intellectuals such as Rod Dreher and Yoram Hazony rubbed elbows with continental nationalists such as Marion Marechal. “Politics is about making decisions, gaining and keeping the trust of the nation, and getting the power and keeping the power.”

Orbán, like Vermeuele and other American integralists, is saying the loud part loud. “Liberal democracy…is over,” he proclaimed in Rome, while swatting around softball how-do-you-do-it questions from former American Enterprise Institute president and Reagan administration official Chris DeMuth. “We need something new. We can call it illiberal, we can call it post-liberal, you can call it Christian democratic, whatever, but we need something new, because on that [former] basis we cannot provide good governance for the people. So we developed a new theory and a new approach: that is Christian democracy. And instead of liberal freedom we use Christian liberty.”

The “liberalism” that this new right is fighting is not limited to woke progressivism, fond though they may be of detecting “cultural Marxists” in every bureaucracy, newspaper, and university. No, they mean very directly to smote “classical liberals” as well. Just as the rising left-populists of the Jeremy Corbyn or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) type despise “neoliberals,” their equally rising right-wing counterparts condemn the market-fundamentalist and hyper-individualist shibboleths that for too long (in their view) held sway in the democratic West.

“The Court’s jurisprudence on free speech, abortion, sexual liberties, and related matters will prove vulnerable under a regime of common-good constitutionalism,” muses Vermeule, before shifting to a more pronounced Bane-like tone. “The claim, from the notorious joint opinion in Planned Parenthood v. Casey, that each individual may ‘define one’s own concept of existence, of meaning, of the universe, and of the mystery of human life’ should be not only rejected but stamped as abominable, beyond the realm of the acceptable forever after. So too should the libertarian assumptions central to free-speech law and free-speech ideology—that government is forbidden to judge the quality and moral worth of public speech, that ‘one man’s vulgarity is another’s lyric,’ and so on—fall under the ax. Libertarian conceptions of property rights and economic rights will also have to go.”

At some point it becomes wise to take self-declared enemies of liberalism at their word. More still when real-life politicians start acting out those power fantasies.

Sure enough, there has been no shortage this week of western news organizations sounding the alarm bell at right-wing nationalists exercising heightened powers to combat COVID-19 worldwide: Orbán in Hungary, Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, Aleksandar Vučić in Serbia, Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines. Usually these pieces come with observation that many of these leaders maintain close relationships with President Donald Trump.

But this is where the conventional narrative about creeping global corona-fascism begins to founder. Because do you know who else gets the Friend of Trump treatment about COVID-19 policy? Politicians, at here and abroad, who take the opposite approach to coronavirus crackdowns.

“In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, Trump’s Close Ally, Dangerously Downplays the Coronavirus Risk,” goes the New Yorker headline this week. “How 2 Trump-loving governors are struggling amid the coronavirus crisis,” runs today’s offering at CNN. There are generally no such dot-connecting ideological/partisan exercises when the laissez-faire governmental responses come from populist lefties, as in Nicragua, Mexico, and (until recently) New York City.

Meanwhile, a whole commentary cottage industry has arisen over outraged non-conservatives urgently demanding that the president they despise wave the presidential wand to control the entire country’s behavior. “It is time for a national lockdown,” The New York Times editorialized last week. The longtime progressive website Common Dreams had a remarkable headline two days later: “As Trump Snubs Restrictions to Contain Coronavirus, New Poll Shows 3 in 4 Americans Back a National Lockdown.”

As ever, it takes libertarians to bring up rights in the midst of a national freakout. “The president doesn’t have constitutional authority to issue a national stay-at-home order, so please stop urging him to do so,” one of his fiercest critics, Rep. Justin Amash (I–Mich.) tweeted today. “He can recommend, but he doesn’t get to do whatever he wants, even in a crisis. That’s the law. That’s our Constitution. It exists to secure our rights.”

Rights, shmights, says Vermeule.

“Elaborating on the common-good principle that no constitutional right to refuse vaccination exists, constitutional law will define in broad terms the authority of the state to protect the public’s health and well-being, protecting the weak from pandemics and scourges of many kinds—biological, social, and economic—even when doing so requires overriding the selfish claims of individuals to private ‘rights,'” he wrote.

It was heartening to see so many commentators, including a few fellow-traveler nationalists on the right, flag Vermeuele’s manifesto as at the least wrongheaded and at the most frightening. But as the great libertarian legal advocate Timothy Sandefur and others have pointed out, utilitarian, will-to-power constitutionalism is a common feature in non-integrationalist legal academia as well.

And I am perhaps most alarmed by the critique that the anti-liberals get most right: that legal frameworks cannot long survive dislocating separations from the broader culture. Put more bluntly, in response to this deadly and terrifying virus, U.S. politicians are imposing, and Americans are accepting, a series of infringements on liberty more extensive and arbitrary than any I thought I’d see in my lifetime.

In order for liberalism’s enemies to be bested, there needs to be a robust liberalism left to defend. Right now, whether in politics or intellectual life or our ongoing overlapping lockdowns, there is little momentum on the side of Team Enlightenment. And we’re still nowhere close to the apex of dead bodies. As Keith E. Whittington concluded in his Volokh Conspiracy essay about Vermeuele, “Winter is coming.”

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Uber, Lyft Revenues Drop By Staggering 50% Due To Coronavirus Outbreak

Uber, Lyft Revenues Drop By Staggering 50% Due To Coronavirus Outbreak

The one-time IPO darlings of yesteryear are about to take another beating.

We already knew that the COVID-19 pandemic would deliver a huge blow to the so-called ‘sharing economy’, at least in the short term,as Airbnb to permanently delay plans for an IPO and pledge hundreds of millions of dollars to offset the costs of cancellations and bail out its most ‘highly leveraged’ hosts. And on Thursday, tech news outfit the Information reported that revenues for both Uber and Lyft have sunk by roughly 50% YoY in just a matter of weeks as companies begin the painful process of preparing their Q1 earnings reports.

The hit was so intense, that Uber’s revenue from passenger rides (minus pay) could come in at under $450 million a month for Q1, down nearly 40% from $800 million a month last year, according to the report.

And Lyft’s passenger revenue is expected to come in below $150 million a month, down from $260 million a month.

When it comes down to who is better prepared, Uber can at least lean on Uber Eats, which has shown global bookings growth of more than 50% in the last year (which will likely skyrocket now that so many are opting to order in). Though over the long term, that might not make much of a difference.

Bank of America analysts raised some of this issues in a research note shared with clients earlier this month.

Conditions likely to decline as quarantine orders kick in:

Today, Uber CFO Nelson Chai provided some updates (but no new guidance) regarding the impact from Coronavirus, indicating Uber has seen increasing negative impact on Rides during the last week & a half from a decrease work commuting and other activities, with bookings in Seattle down 40-50%. Also, the Bay Area has just issued a 3 week shelter in place order and we expect a growing quarantine impact on Rides, with 2Q the low point. In Hong Kong, the peak-to-trough impact was -45% during the last week of Jan., rides are now tracking down 30% (some recovery), and we expect Uber’s business to normalize once the outbreak is contained and people are back to work.

Lowering estimates for growing impact on Rides business:

We are lowering 1Q’20 Rides bookings by 10%, 2Q by 40%, and 3Q by 25%. Our changes imply a trough in 2Q (rolling 4-6 week quarantines in major cities) & gradual recovery thereafter, mirroring trends in Hong Kong. We decrease our 2020 Rides Bookings Estimate by 21%, from $56.5bn to $44.7bn. We roughly maintain our Eats bookings estimate, but decrease take rates due to the Free Delivery offering (’20 ANR down 5%). For 2020, we decrease Total ANR from $16.7bn to $13.6bn, and increase the EBITDA loss from $1.3bn to $2.3bn. For 2021, we lower bookings by 6% and continue to model positive EBITDA. Importantly, after including over $2bn in cash payments for Careem we estimate that Uber will exit 2020 with over $5.6bn in cash on balance sheet. We expect modest FCF loss in 2021 of $700mn, before Uber turns FCF positive in 2022.

As legendary hedge fund investor Jim Chanos said earlier during an interview with CNBC’s “Halftime Report” Thursday, “are going to come out of this ‘harmed’, not ‘enhanced’.”

While he acknowledged that there’s a “school of thought” believing it will be an unprecedented boon for the industry since people aren’t going to go back to restaurants or take public transit, there are a lot of issues that the market hasn’t really thought through, Chanos said. 

For example, while lawmakers were hammering out the $2 trillion stimulus bill, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi had to appeal directly to lawmakers to find a workaround that would extend unemployment benefits to full-time Uber drivers and other gig economy workers. The problem is that since these workers aren’t classified as regular employees, those payments will fall directly on taxpayers shoulders. This could bring on more policy scrutiny: Uber is already fighting a California law forcing it to treat drivers like regular employees. Pretty soon, that could become the law of the land.

“I think both political parties are going to be looking at that pretty hard coming out of the crisis to enhance corporate responsibility in lots of different ways whether it’s keeping employees as independent contractors, whether its restricting buybacks,” Chanos said.

Additionally, when it comes to food-delivery services like GrubHub and Uber Eats, Chanos said whether they can ever be profitable remains an open question. As Chanos sees it, the problem is still essentially the same as it was when the WSJ ran its big series on the future of food delivery a year ago: No matter how much businesses like UberEats and GrubHub can scale, individual drivers can still only deliver 2-4 meals an hour, tops. There’s only so much efficiency they can wring out of these drivers, and at a certain point, if GrubHub and other companies start demanding larger shares of the revenue pie, restaurants might start walking away.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 16:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2JLK95H Tyler Durden

CBO Reveals Apocalyptic Forecast: Expects -28% GDP, 10% Unemployment Rate

CBO Reveals Apocalyptic Forecast: Expects -28% GDP, 10% Unemployment Rate

One of the many side effects of the coronavirus pandemic is that it has thrown out all recent economic forecasts right out of the window, certainly those of the perpetually cheerful CBO. In a publication released on Thursday afternoon, the CBO said that it now expects the economy to contract sharply during the second quarter of 2020 as a result of the continued disruption of commerce stemming from the spread of the novel coronavirus. What it expects now is, at least in the short-run, nothing short of a depression, with Q2 GDP expected to plunge to -28% as unemployment soars to 10%

The following are CBO’s latest preliminary estimates, based on information about the economy that was available through this morning and which include the effects of an economic boost from recently enacted legislation.

  • Gross domestic product is expected to decline by more than 7 percent during the second quarter. If that happened, the decline in the annualized growth rate reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis would be about four times larger and would exceed 28 percent. Those declines could be much larger, however.

  • The unemployment rate is expected to exceed 10 percent during the second quarter, in part reflecting the 3.3 million new unemployment insurance claims reported on March 26 and the 6.6 million new claims reported this morning. (The number of new claims was about 10 times larger this morning than it had been in any single week during the recession from 2007 to 2009.)

  • Interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes are expected to be below 1% during the second quarter as a result of the Federal Reserve’s actions and market conditions. This is hardly a surprise, and the real question is when will rates turn negative.

And visually:

That’s about as far as the CBO will go. As it admits, its “economic projections, especially for later periods, are highly uncertain at this time.”

Below are some details on what specific updates are incorporated in Today’s Cost Estimate:

To estimate the costs of legislation that is especially sensitive to economic conditions, such as provisions affecting unemployment insurance benefits, CBO is taking into account as much economic information as possible. Later today, CBO will publish a preliminary estimate of the costs of H.R. 6201, the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, which was enacted as Public Law 116-127 on March 18. The estimate incorporates an updated projection of the unemployment rate that was based on information that was available about the economy through March 27. It was not based on all information available as of this morning because of the time needed to process new information about economic developments and incorporate it into cost estimates. (Also, following the conventions of cost estimating, the economic projections used for the estimate do not include the effects of the act itself or the larger effects of P.L. 116-136, the subsequently enacted CARES Act.)

The unemployment rate underlying the cost estimate for H.R. 6201 was 12 percent in the second quarter of 2020. The extent of social distancing was a key factor in that projection. The analysis incorporated an expectation that the current extent of social distancing across the country would continue—on average, and with local variation—for the next three months. That expectation was broadly consistent with the projections of the virus’s spread that have been reported by the Administration’s coronavirus task force.

CBO’s projections also included the possibility of later outbreaks of the virus. To account for that possibility, social distancing was projected to diminish by only three-quarters, on average, during the second half of the year. And CBO expected the effects of job losses and business closures to be felt for some time; the unemployment rate underlying the cost estimate was 9 percent at the end of 2021.

Future Updates

CBO is currently working to develop central projections of economic variables that take information into account that has become available since March 27—information that has been more negative than anticipated. The agency is also preparing central estimates of the economic effects of recent legislation enacted to help boost the economy. All of that information will be provided with CBO’s next baseline projections of the economy and the budget; those projections will be published later this year.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 16:15

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“COVID19 Exposes the Shallowness of Our Privacy Theories”

I’ve long much admired Prof. Bambauer’s work, and when I saw this forwarded to a lawprof discussion list I’m on, I asked her for permission to repost it:

The importance of testing and contact tracing to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus is now pretty well understood. The difference between the communities that do it and the ones that don’t is disturbingly grim (see, e.g., South Korea versus Italy). In a large population like the U.S., contact tracing and alerts will have to be done in an automated way with the help of mobile service providers’ geolocation data. The intensive use of location data in South Korea has led many commenters to claim that the strategy that’s been so effective there cannot be replicated in western countries with strong privacy laws.

Descriptively, it’s probably true that privacy law and instincts in the US and EU will hinder virus surveillance. The European Commission’s recent guidance on GDPR’s application to the COVID-19 crisis states that EU countries would have to introduce new legislation in order to use telecommunications data to do contact tracing, and that the legislation would be reviewable by the European Court of Human Rights. No member states have done this. Even Germany, which has announced the rollout of a cellphone tracking and alert app has decided to make the use of the app voluntary. This system will only be effective if enough people opt into it. (One study suggests the minimum participation rate would have to be “near universal,” so this does not bode well.)

And in the U.S., privacy advocacy groups like EPIC are already gearing up to challenge the collection of cellphone data by federal and state governments based on recent Fourth Amendment precedent finding that individuals have a reasonable expectation of privacy in cell phone location data. And nearly every opinion piece I read from public health experts promoting contact tracing ends with some obligatory handwringing about the privacy and ethical implications. Research universities and units of government that are comfortable advocating for draconian measures of social distancing and isolation find it necessary to stall and consult their IRBs and privacy officers before pursuing options that involve data surveillance.

While ethicists and privacy scholars certainly have something to teach regulators during a pandemic, the Coronavirus has something to teach us in return. It has thrown harsh light on the drawbacks and absurdities of rigid individual control over personal data.

Objections to surveillance lose their moral and logical bearings when the alternatives are out-of-control disease or mass lockdowns. Compared to those, mass surveillance is the most liberty-preserving option. Thus, instead of reflexively trotting out privacy and ethics arguments, we should take the opportunity to examine some of the assumptions that are baked into our privacy laws now that they are being tested.

At the highest level of abstraction, the pandemic should remind us that privacy is, ultimately, an instrumental right. It is meant to achieve certain social goals in fairness, safety, and autonomy. It is not an end in itself. When privacy is cloaked in the language of fundamental human rights, its instrumental function is lost.

Like other liberties in movement and commerce, conceiving of privacy as something that is under each individual’s control is a useful rule-of-thumb when it doesn’t conflict too much with other people’s interests. But the COVID-19 crisis shows that there are circumstances under which privacy as an individual right frustrates the very values in fairness, autonomy, and physical security that it is supposed to support.

I have argued in the past that privacy should be understood as a collective interest in risk management, like negligence law, rather than a property-style right. Even if that idea is unpalatable in normal times, I would hope lawmakers can see the need to take decisive action in support of data-sharing during crises like this one. At a minimum epidemiologists and cellphone service providers should be able to rely on implied consent to data-sharing, just as the tort system allows doctors to presume consent for emergency surgery when a patient’s wishes cannot be observed in time.

In fact we should go further than this. There is a moral imperative to ignore even express lack of consent when withholding important information puts others in danger. Just as many states affirmatively require doctors, therapists, teachers, and other fiduciaries to report certain risks even at the expense of their client’s and ward’s privacy (e.g. New York’s requirement that doctors notify their patient’s partners about a positive HIV test if their patient fails to do so), this same logic applies at scale to the collection and analysis of data during a pandemic.

Another reason consent is inappropriate is that it mars quantitative studies with selection bias. Medical reporting on the transmission and mortality of COVID-19 has had to rely much too heavily on data coming out of the Diamond Princess cruise ship because for a long time it was the only random sample—the only time that everybody was screened.

The United States has done a particularly poor job tracking the spread of the virus because faced with a shortage of tests, the CDC compounded our problems by denying those tests to anybody that didn’t meet specific criteria (a set of symptoms and either recent travel or known exposure to a confirmed case.) These criteria all but guaranteed that our data would suggest coughs and fevers are necessary conditions for coronavirus, and it delayed our recognition of community spread. If we are able to do antibody testing in the near future to understand who has had the virus in the past, that data would be most useful over swath of people who have not self-selected into a testing facility.

If consent is not an appropriate concept for privacy during a crisis, that suggests there is a defect in its theory even outside of crisis time. We can improve on the theoretical underpinnings of privacy law by embracing the fact that privacy is an instrumental concept. If we are trying to achieve certain goals through its use—goals in equity, fairness, and autonomy—we should increase our effort to understand what types of uses of data implicate those outcomes, and how they can be improved through moral and legal obligations.

Fortunately, that work is already advancing at a fast clip in debates about socially responsible AI. If our policies can ensure that machine learning applications are sufficiently “fair,” and if we can agree on what fairness entails, lawmakers can begin the fruitful and necessary work of shifting privacy law away from prohibitions on data collection and sharing and toward limits on its use.

Health care privacy isn’t my field, so I can’t speak independently about this, but if you can point to interesting articles on the other side, please pass them along.

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Trump Sparks “Sh*tshow” In Black-Gold As Bullion Demand Soars To 3-Year Highs

Trump Sparks “Sh*tshow” In Black-Gold As Bullion Demand Soars To 3-Year Highs

Two things were “unprecedented” today… America’s labor market collapse and global oil markets’ surge in price.

Just shy of 10 million Americans have signed up for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks… quite an outlier historically…

Source: Bloomberg

For oil traders, it was the worst of times (biggest quarterly loss ever) and the best of times (today’s manic jawboning and denials prompted the single-best daily gain for crude ever)…

All thanks to President Trump’s apparent lying tweet of an imminent supply-cut deal. Saxo’s Ole Hanson summed things up nicely as Trump triggered everyone’s stops…

The 24.7% rise is the largest daily gain for WTI ever (and at one point Brent rose a stunning 47% intraday)…BUT let’s put that in context…

Source: Bloomberg

US equity markets were volatile intraday,  but thanks to a late-day surge (seemingly triggered by the ventilator DPA) all ended green, led by S&P and Dow…

Futures show the chaos best though as the frightening labor data sparked a market puke into the cash open, which dip-buyer manically bought…

Despite the mixed picture in indices, the Virus-Fear trade is reaccelerating…

Source: Bloomberg

“Most Shorted” Stocks fell for the 5th day in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Fun-durr-mentals…

Source: Bloomberg

High-yield bond algos triggered in Trump’s oil deal comments… but that faded rapidly…

Treasury yields were marginally higher today pushing 30Y back to unchanged on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y yields popped back above 60bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar drifted higher again today…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos spiked today (but fell back after that panic-buying) back into the green for the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin spiked above $7200, back to 4-week highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all higher on the day (despite dollar gains) with oil the outlier…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold spiked on the terrible jobless data (more helicopter money?)…

Notably, gold futures and spot have started to decouple once again (as physical shortages rear their ugly head again)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Gold coins sold by the U.S. Mint were snapped up in March at the fastest pace in over three years as investors flocked to the haven metal amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg reports, by the end of the month, investors had purchased142,000 ounces of American Eagle coins, the most since late 2016. With so much retail demand, dealers are charging premiums for bullion — and even offering to pay more than spot prices to clients willing to part with their gold bars and coins.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 16:00

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