We Should Not Forget The Free Speech Lessons from President Johnson’s Impeachment Trial

[This post is co-authored with Seth Barrett Tillman.]

Yesterday, the House adopted a single article of impeachment, titled Incitement of Insurrection. The House did not actually charge President Trump with personally engaging in insurrection. Rather, the five-page resolution asserted that Trump’s words and tweets since the election “encouraged” the “lawless action at the Capitol” and “gravely endangered the security of the United States.” The House rejected any argument that the President’s speech was protected by the First Amendment. The Judiciary Committee concluded that freedom of speech “applies very differently” to the President “by virtue of his office” than it does to “private citizens.” Moreover, the Committee endorsed the views of constitutional scholars who argued the President has zero free speech rights in this process. 

Regrettably, the House Democrats have forgotten an important lesson from the impeachment trial of President Andrew Johnson. In 1868, the Radical Republicans impeached the Tennessee Democrat for using “intemperate” and “inflammatory” language that was critical of Congress. Ultimately, Johnson was never convicted on this charge, in part, because pivotal Republican Senators insisted that the First Amendment protects the President’s freedom of speech. History may repeat itself again soon. To secure a conviction, House managers, acting as prosecutors, must make their case to the Senate, and to the country, that convicting Trump is consistent with the First Amendment. The President’s right to free speech should not be simply dismissed out of hand.

After Lincoln’s assassination in 1865, Vice President Andrew Johnson became President. Over the next three years, Johnson frequently clashed with Congress. The Radical Republicans wanted to pursue a vigorous and forceful reconstruction of the southern states in the wake of the Civil War. Johnson opposed many of these efforts. This conflict peaked when Johnson fired Edwin Stanton, who was Lincoln’s holdover Secretary of War. 

In 1868, the House of Representatives approved eleven articles of impeachment against Johnson. Most of the articles concerned Stanton’s termination. But Article 10 focused on Johnson’s public criticism of Congress. It asserted that Johnson brought Congress “into disgrace, ridicule, hatred, contempt and reproach.” In one speech in Washington, D.C., Johnson said Congress only “pretend[ed] to be for the Union,” but was for “only part of the States,” and sought to “exercise [the] power” of a “despotism.” In a second speech in St. Louis, Johnson said that “Congress, factions and domineering, had undertaken to poison the minds of the American people.” In a third speech in New Orleans, Johnson said he was betrayed by Radical Republicans who had “diabolical and nefarious” plans.

Ultimately, Johnson was acquitted in the Senate. History records that seven Republicans crossed party lines, and voted against conviction. John F. Kennedy lionized one of the septet, Senator Edmund G. Ross of Ohio, as a Profile in Courage. (In recent years, that account has come into some doubt.) But largely lost in that history is that five of the other breakaway Republicans defended Johnson’s free speech rights. They agreed that the President had the same First Amendment rights as a private citizen. 

Senator John Henderson of Missouri stated plainly that “the President, like other persons, is protected under” the First Amendment. “He too,” Henderson continued, “has the right to make foolish speeches.” Senator James Grimes of Iowa admitted that Johnson’s speeches were “indiscreet, indecorous, improper, [and] vulgar.” But he could not “attempt[] to repress the freedom of speech.” Senator Peter Van Winkle of West Virginia said the First Amendment was “unquestionably of universal application,” even to the President. Senator Joseph Fowler of Tennessee boasted that Johnson did no “more than exercise that liberty of speech guaranteed to him by the Constitution.” Senator William Pitt Fessenden of Maine warned that removing the President for his speech would not only “den[y] him a right secured to every other citizen of the republic . . . but might deprive the people of the benefit of his opinion of public affairs.” The President, Fessenden contended, has the right to communicate with the people. And the people have a right to hear those communications.

To be sure, several Republicans who voted to convict Johnson insisted that the President’s free speech rights were reduced. Senator Timothy Howe of Wisconsin stated that the “people of the United States own the office of the President,” and can “protect it from desecration.” And Senator Jacob Howard of Michigan maintained that “no question of the ‘freedom of speech’ arises here.” 

The House managers, who prosecuted the case, rejected the First Amendment defense. Representative John Bingham of Ohio would “stand against that freedom of speech which would disturb the peace of nations.” In a fiery speech, Representative Charles Sumner of Massachusetts said the “President, at the top of the ladder,” has “greater responsibility” than other government officers, and thus should be held to a higher standard.

Ultimately, the Senate never voted on Article 10, so we do not have a final judgment on the constitutionality of that charge. Yet, this history should give the House managers pause about their rejection of First Amendment rights for the President.

During the upcoming impeachment trial, Senators will not be bound by Supreme Court precedents in the same way that lower courts are. We think the Supreme Court’s First Amendment caselaw establishes a baseline. And Senators ought to explain their departure from those precedents. A senator might comply with his constitutional oath, and act in good faith, if he determines that the full scope of First Amendment rights apply to the President under established Supreme Court caselaw. A senator might also comply with his constitutional oath, and act in good faith, if he were to decide otherwise. Our point is that First Amendment rights established by the courts establish a baseline from which departures ought to be explained.

We do not doubt that different positions with regard to the scope of the President’s First Amendment might be applied by a conscientious member of Congress. And each of these different legal positions may still lead to a conviction. But we do think departures from the judicially-established baseline ought to be explained. The process, and constitutional rationales, matter. In his classic book about presidential impeachments, Grand Inquests, Chief Justice Rehnquist observed that, during times of conflict, “[p]rovisions in the Constitution for judicial independence, or provisions guaranteeing freedom of speech to the President as well as others, suddenly appear as obstacles to the accomplishment of the greater good.” The Chief Justice was right.

By necessity, this process has been hurried. Yet, Congress should not forget the lessons of history in the rush to convict President Trump. We know all too well that history has a way of repeating itself. During Johnson’s impeachment trial, a House manager warned that Johnson’s remarks were not “only talk.” In a speech that could be used for Trump’s senate trial, Representative Benjamin Butler of Massachusetts said that “words may be, and sometimes are, things—living, burning things that set a world on fire.” In 1868, Butler’s speech did not carry the day—the House failed to convince enough Republican Senators that the President’s speech was unprotected by the First Amendment.

Democrats are poised to make a similar mistake today. The House managers seem to think they are more likely to secure a conviction by presenting an impeachment article—a functional indictment—which ignores the President’s free speech rights. We think this approach may be a blunder. As the managers depart further from the traditional understanding of the First Amendment, the proceeding will more likely be seen as unfair. And, Republicans who see the proceeding as unfair may, at the margin, vote to acquit. They could defend their vote by finding that the managers chose the wrong legal standard. These Senators could justify their vote as a prudential choice to avoid making bad law and bad precedent. At that point, the merits of Trump’s case might not matter much. As a pragmatic matter, presenting a case that recognizes established free speech rights may garner more votes for conviction. And ignoring those rights could lead to more votes for acquittal. The managers should not forget the lessons from 1868.

[Seth Barrett Tillman is a Lecturer at Maynooth University Department of Law, Ireland (Roinn Dlí Ollscoil Mhá Nuad).]

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Teachers Unions Fail Science

Teachers Unions Fail Science

Authored by John Stossel, op-ed via Townhall.com,

Is your child’s school open now?

Probably not — because teachers unions say that reopening would “put their health and safety at risk.”

They keep schools closed by lobbying and protesting.

“If I die from catching COVID-19 from being forced back into Pinellas County Schools, you can drop my dead body right here!” shouts one demonstrator in my new video.

But schools rarely spread COVID-19. 

Studies on tens of thousands of people found “no consistent relationship between in-person K-12 schooling and the spread of the coronavirus.”

Even Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, encouraged schools to reopen, saying “close the bars and keep the schools open.”

Heritage Foundation education researcher Lindsey Burke points out that studies in 191 countries find “no consistent link between reopening schools and increased rates of COVID transmission.”

She says schools aren’t COVID-19 hotspots.

“But it’s logical that they would be,” I push back. “Kids are bunched together.”

“Positivity rates in schools are generally below those in the broader community,” she says.

Closed schools hurt low-income students most because they have fewer learning alternatives. The privileged get around union restrictions.

Almost all of California’s government-run schools are closed, but California Governor Gavin Newsom’s sends his kids to a private school that stayed open.

“Choice for me, but not for thee!” quips Burke.

Kids blocked from attending school suffer more than academic losses, she adds.

“Kids are social animals. A lack of their ability to interact in person, see their friends, see their teachers, is really having an impact.”

That’s not a good enough reason to open schools, say the unions. In my video, one San Antonio teacher argues:

“We understand that in-person learning is more effective than online teaching, but that’s not the question. The question is what is safest.”

“But that’s really not at the heart of why unions are trying to keep schools closed,” says Burke. “It’s really a question of politics.”

Definitely. Union demands include all sorts of things unrelated to teacher safety. The Los Angeles union demands: defunding the police, a moratorium on charter schools, higher taxes on the wealthy and “Medicare for All.”

“The Oregon Education Association … said they wanted the state to halt any transfers to virtual charter schools,” says Burke.

“There’s clearly no health issue in a virtual setting.”

It’s revealing that government-run schools fight to stay closed, while most businesses — private schools, restaurants, hair salons, gyms, etc., fight to be allowed to open.

Why is that? Burke points out that government schools “receive funding regardless of whether or not they reopen.”

So, union workers get paid even when they don’t work. Not working seems to be a big union goal.

At one point, LA teachers even secured a contract saying that they only are “required to provide instruction … four hours per day” and they will “not be required to teach classes using live video conferencing.”

Nice non-work if you can get it. 

Yet, the teachers unions keep winning. They will win more now that Democrats control the federal government. Congress’ last stimulus package forbids any funds to be used to expand school choice: no “vouchers, tuition tax credit programs, education savings accounts, scholarship programs, or tuition assistance programs.”

So, students lose. Parents lose. Taxpayers lose. America loses.

Unions win.

We asked 21 teachers unions to respond to the criticisms in this column. Not one would.

Their behavior reveals their true interest: power and money. Students come third.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/14/2021 – 14:25

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“Excessive, Brutal And Unlawful”: NY Attorney General Sues NYPD, De Blasio Over Handling Of George Floyd Protests

“Excessive, Brutal And Unlawful”: NY Attorney General Sues NYPD, De Blasio Over Handling Of George Floyd Protests

New York state is suing the New York City Police Department (NYPD) and its leadership for what they’ve described as “excessive, brutal and unlawful” handling of George Floyd protests, according to NY Attorney General Letitia James.

Filed Thursday in Manhattan federal court, the lawsuit comes after a watchdog within the city’s Department of Investigation concluded in December that ‘some police officers used aggressive tactics that violated the First Amendment rights of protesters during the demonstrations,’ according to the New York Times. .

Over 2,000 people were arrested in May and June during months of unrest.

Photo: Simbarasche Cha via the NYT

According to the 111 page report, police officials were unprepared for the ‘large and angry’ demonstrations following the death of Floyd, a black man who died while in custody of Minneapolis police.

There is no question that the NYPD engaged in a pattern of excessive, brutal, and unlawful force against peaceful protesters,” said AG James, adding “Over the past few months, the NYPD has repeatedly and blatantly violated the rights of New Yorkers, inflicting significant physical and psychological harm and leading to great distrust in law enforcement.”

Named in the lawsuit are the NYPD, the City of New York, Mayor Bill de Blasio, NYPD Commissioner Dermot Shea and NYPD Chief of Department Terence Monahan, who CNN reports failed to address a “longstanding pattern of abuse” by not providing officers with proper training, supervision or disciplining misconduct, according to the release.

“The department itself made a number of key errors or omissions that likely escalated tensions, and certainly contributed to both the perception and the reality that the department was suppressing rather than facilitating lawful First Amendment assembly and expression,” according to the December report, which added that the department “lacked a clearly defined strategy tailored to respond to the large-scale protests of police and policing.”

“The N.Y.P.D. use of force and crowd control tactics often failed to discriminate between lawful, peaceful protesters and unlawful actors and contributed to the perception that officers were exercising force in some cases beyond what was necessary.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/14/2021 – 14:05

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Big Tech’s Purge Is Only Beginning… For Them

Big Tech’s Purge Is Only Beginning… For Them

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

There’s nothing easy about living through a political coup. The Big Tech firms long in cahoots with our government have been pushing a false narrative of evil MAGA-Nazis trying to undermine polite society for more than four years now.

Suppression started with Milo Yiannopoulos, accelerated to include Alex Jones and InfoWars and reach a temporary peak in 2018 with the persecution of alternative social media platform Gab in the wake of the Pittsburgh shooting.

I said this then in a piece entitled: Attack on Gab Proves Speech Was Never Free:

Friday’s attack by an unhinged, vile piece of human excrement on a Synagogue in Pittsburgh wasn’t hours old before real world agendas pushed to the top of the news.

Twitter alternative Gab was immediately dropped by PayPal without specific reasons.

Then immediately, Gab’s latest hosting service unilaterally gave the company a 48-hour termination notice of its contract.

Gab was hounded to the point of extermination and only a herculean effort by CEO and total warrior Andrew Torba and his staff kept the company afloat. Today Gab can only take Bitcoin and checks for payment. Torba himself has no banking privileges or access to credit, payment processors etc.

All for what? Running a social network where someone posted something terrible hours before doing something terrible?

Or was this a political hit job? The coordination of the event with the response is a little too convenient for any person of room temperature or higher intelligence to stomach.

The Rhyme Without Reason

Sound familiar to what happened to Parler? The attack then on Gab was a dry run for this weekend. If no one would stand up for Gab who didn’t have the resources to fight this in court, then when it came time to do it for real to a more high profile firm they knew it would stand up.

This growing duopoly in internet on-ramp gatekeeping by Apple and Google has been something I’ve warned about for years (go look through the archives searching out terms like Gab and Facebook).

No one listened. We all kept retweeting Trump and I even finally broke down and bought an iPhone. Parler just got the Gab treatment literally over nothing.

I’m not going to say both events were scripted false flags (though there’s certainly enough evidence that there was something really hinckey going on at the Capitol) but they certainly had their action plans ready for when the right trigger occured.

In fact, I’d argue that it’s more likely the people posting vile garbage on these networks is a plant than a real violent dissident. We know that the FBI, for example, infiltrates militia groups all the time and in some cases there are more agents working undercover than there are actual militia guys.

When you’re in the narrative creation business and we know that a minimum of 30% of users on Twitter aren’t real but bots, is it really a stretch to think a Deep State actor isn’t posting inflammatory shit on Parler to give the tech giants the excuse they need to do the thing they desperately want to do anyway, namely destroy their up and coming competition?

These companies have normalized suppression of speech in the public commons that their networks operate on top of. I remind people all the time that they are bandwidth pigs, feeding at the subsidized trough of publicly-built and maintained infrastructure.

Net Non-Neutrality

Trump’s biggest sin in his time as president wasn’t, to these people, saying inflammatory things, it was getting rid of their cashcow, Net Neutrality.

Net Neutrality took pricing of bandwidth out of the hands of consumers. It handed the profits from it to Google, Facebook and all the crappy advertisers spamming video ads, malware, scams, and the like everywhere.

By mandating ‘equal access’ and equal fee structures the advertisers behind Google and Facebook would spend their budgets without much thought or care. Google and Facebook ad revenue soared under Net Neutrality because advertisers’ needs are not aligned with Google’s bottom line, but with consumers’.

And, because of that, the price paid to deliver the ad, i.e. Google’s cost of goods sold (COGS), thanks to Net Neutrality, was held artificially low. And Google, Facebook and the Porn Industry pocketed the difference.

They grew uncontrollably. In the case of Google and Facebook, uncontrollably powerful.

Look, I’m more than okay with saying that Apple, Google or Facebook have the right to restrict content on their services, but only if they are also doing that over their own privately-built public networks, their own private wires.

But, we all know that isn’t the case. They utilize the public airwaves, fiber trunks, satellites etc. that we paid to build. As libertarians we’ve always argued that freedom of association also meant freedom from association.

That freedom, through the application of private property, also comes with responsibility to the counter-party in any and all interactions. No one would have allowed these companies to build these networks in a true private property regime.

No way would they have become this big, this powerful or this cowardly if they had had to bear the true costs of their business roll out. These aren’t the bastions of the free market conservatives (and even classical liberals to an extent) think they are.

They are, ultimately, as we’ve seen from their actions this week, the biggest welfare queens in the world simply stepping on the competition to ensure conformity of information flow.

Continued Section 230 immunity has elevated their ever-changing Terms of Service above the proscriptions against limiting speech in the Bill of Rights.

Moreover, these firms use these Terms of Service to provide no guarantee of service. These ToS’s are contracts of adhesion, entered into where one party has unequal standing versus the counter-party.

But, since the whole idea of living under a coercive government is one big contract of adhesion, since you really aren’t an equal partner to the government in the social contract nor did you have any choice but to sign on the moment you were born, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised when that reality is shoved into our faces when their power is threatened.

This is the fundamental problem with accepting any of these ideas as valid. The whole society is structured around these enshrined power imbalances and we think we’re going to upend them by voting for Orange Man Bad?

Globo-Stasi’s

The way they operate is far beyond the strictures placed on governments themselves, who have to at least create Byzantine rules to obfuscate the tyranny and force us into a corrupt and expensive court system stacked against us to get the barest minimum of injunctive relief, assuming the judge isn’t a partisan hack or a congenital moron.

I think it’s rich that a person like Angela Merkel, the first political leader to send police into a person’s home for posting hate speech on Facebook, is now clutching her pearls over the censorship by Facebook, Twitter, Apple and Google.

Spare me the crocodile tears Frau Stasi.

Because now, anyone to the right of your rank and file BLM member is looking over their shoulder waiting for the hammer to fall on them. It has become commonplace on Twitter for the star-bellied bluechecks to call out for blood against any and all Trump supporters or worse, *shudder* Republicans.

They should be driven to the brink of extinction. Denied jobs or a living for using the wrong pronoun because they are simply, too stupid to matter. We’ve got people honestly thinking it’s okay to take children out of your home for voting for the wrong party.

What comes next is even worse, vaguely-worded legislation from D.C. supporting these companies’ hyper-aggressive market defense, we’re already being treated to it by none other than AOC.

This is all the bad news I can come up with (today). What I do know, however, is that what comes next is that Facebook, Twitter and Google have whistled far beyond their graveyards here.

The backlash will against them will be epic. Shareholder lawsuits as stock prices plummet will gut them leaving them in the position to be bailed out or nationalized by the government.

Because, at the very least, there is still some semblance of sanity in that corner of the legal system. These companies have attacked and alienated their customers. In the process they have tainted their brand and if their stock prices do not recover will have real problems in the future.

They may look invincible now, but wait until the government under control of totalitarians like Pelosi, AOC, Schumer and the rest, turn on them and gobble them up to regain their credibility with a rightfully outraged and horrified public.

The best thing all of us can do is complete that transition to other services, deploy our time, expertise and investible capital into building censorship-proof communications platforms without an owner to lean on.

All things built on a nodal structure have critical points of failure. Amazon nuked Parler, not Apple or Google. Gab is proof that a social network doesn’t need an app to survive or even thrive.

Finding Our Way Home

Dave Rubin, major partner in Locals, is convinced the days of monolithic, massive social networks are numbered and we’ll all be congregating into smaller, more intimate communities. And I don’t disagree with him.

In fact, I hope he’s right.

I’ve tried to use Patreon this way to bring people together. It’s why I started a private server on Slack for people to congregate away from the insanity of Twitter. It thrives today as a place where only the most interested and committed people hang out, share ideas and help each other.

It’s a community. The very thing lefties think libertarians are no good at building. Don’t let the wrapper fool you, though. Community is all we ever have on our minds.

Discord and Telegram are exploding as we go back to the days of Usenet and Yahoo Groups dedicated to specific topics of like-minded people. Gab has had private groups for years now.

The cries about echo chambers being a bad thing are falling on deaf ears all across the spectrum. People complain at me all the time that there are no use-cases for cryptocurrency and blockchains and I just look at them like they are children.

Now more than at any other point in history is there the opportunity for a real, properly-built and decentralized social media platform owned by those that hold the governance tokens and not a corporation or organization which is corruptible.

Because we’ve seen how that story ends.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you are looking for a community and not an insane asylum.

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Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/14/2021 – 13:45

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Biden Taps Key Architect Of Obama’s War In Libya To Head USAID

Biden Taps Key Architect Of Obama’s War In Libya To Head USAID

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

On Wednesday, Joe Biden announced that he will nominate Samantha Power to head the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

Power served as ambassador to the UN for President Obama from 2013 to 2017. Before that, she worked on Obama’s National Security Council, where she played an instrumental role in pushing for US intervention in Libya in 2011.

Via Reuters

Power argued in favor of US intervention in Libya under the guise of protecting human rights and preventing genocide. She was joined in her crusade by then-Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and Susan Rice, who served as the UN ambassador at the time.

Reports from 2011 say the pressure from Power, Rice, and Clinton is what led Obama to intervene militarily in Libya, even though his other top advisors were against it. Then-Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates would later say that in a “51 to 49” decision, Obama decided to bomb Libya.

The US-NATO intervention in Libya that led to the brutal murder of former Libyan ruler Moammar Gaddafi was an absolute disaster. Destabilizing Libya turned the country into a haven for al-Qaeda-linked militants, resulted in targeted killings of black Africans, sparked a refugee crisis in North Africa, and even led to the creation of slave markets.

For her efforts in convincing Obama to destroy Libya, Power was promoted. As the US ambassador to the UN, Power advocated for US intervention in Syria and stood by as the Obama administration backed the Saudis in their brutal war against Yemen’s Houthis.

While Powers has since taken a public stance against the war in Yemen, she omitted her early role in supporting the vicious war from her memoir that was published in 2019. In the book, Power defended her decision to intervene in Libya and argued that more intervention in Syria could have prevented some of the war’s atrocities.

While it’s not exactly a national security position, Power will have a lot of influence on foreign policy from her future role as the head of USAID.

The agency is often used to fund US regime change efforts. For example, in September 2019, USAID announced it would be providing $52 million to Juan Guaido, who the US recognizes as president of Venezuela, despite the fact that Nicolas Maduro holds the office. Earlier in 2019, the US supported Guaido in a failed coup attempt.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/14/2021 – 13:30

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If Carelessness Gave Us the Current COVID-19 Surge, Individual Precautions Can Abate That Trend

CoronavirusGenericDreamstime

Newly identified COVID-19 cases in the United States, after falling between December 18 and December 29, have risen to record levels since then, a trend that may reflect infections tied to Christmas and New Year’s gatherings. Daily deaths also have climbed to record highs since late December, with no sign of letting up.

According to Worldometer’s tallies, the seven-day average of daily new cases was more than 250,000 yesterday, down slightly from the high recorded on Monday but still seven times the average in mid-September. The seven-day average of daily deaths yesterday was more than 3,400, the highest toll recorded so far. The dip in deaths recorded between December 22 and December 27 probably was mostly a function of holiday-related reporting issues, which would have shifted the recording of some deaths that happened during the Christmas weekend to the following week.

COVID-19 symptoms that might prompt someone to seek testing appear two to 14 days after infection, which makes it plausible that holiday gatherings toward the end of 2020 contributed to the recent surge in daily new cases. The falloff in recent days could be a sign that the impact of those celebrations is abating.

Researchers at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health found that “deaths often occur 2–8 weeks after the onset of COVID-19 symptoms.” That suggests a lag as long as a month between laboratory confirmation and death, which means the daily death toll is apt to continue climbing for the rest of the month, reflecting the increase in newly identified infections since the end of last year.

The U.S. death toll—currently about 395,000, per Worldometer—has more than doubled since the beginning of September. The United States has seen more COVID-19 deaths per capita than all but a handful of countries.

If there is anything hopeful in this dark news, it is the impact that individual decisions have on trends in cases and deaths. The factors that drive new infections—such as gathering indoors for extended periods of time in close proximity with people from other households—are hardly ineluctable. If new cases continue to fall after the post-holiday surge, that will be further evidence that the course of the epidemic is largely determined by how Americans choose to behave in the months until vaccines are widely available.

It seems likely that dramatic increases in case and death numbers encourage people to exercise more care, which in turn helps counter those trends. The danger is that the success of basic COVID-19 precautions, reflected in fewer daily cases and deaths, may lead people to be less careful. If that’s true, we could be caught in a self-perpetuating cycle of ups and downs.

It is one thing to resent arbitrary, scientifically dubious, and sometimes unconstitutional COVID-19 control measures imposed by frequently hypocritical politicians. It is quite another to eschew even sensible precautions, thereby endangering people around you, as if it were some sort of political statement.

At least half a dozen members of Congress tested positive for COVID-19 after they were sequestered in close quarters with Republican legislators who refused to wear face masks during last week’s riot at the Capitol. The fact that such discourtesy and carelessness has become a badge of honor among many Trump supporters is understandable in the sense that they are taking their cues from a president who has repeatedly denigrated the value of face coverings, even after he described wearing them as “patriotic.” But as a matter of basic decency, it is baffling.

San Mateo County, California, Health Officer Scott Morrow, an early advocate of lockdowns last spring, has criticized recent legal restrictions supposedly aimed at curtailing the pandemic, noting that they are often illogical and empirically questionable. But that hardly means he thinks Americans should throw caution to the winds and let the pandemic proceed unimpeded.

“I think people should stay at home, avoid all non-essential activities, wear masks, and not gather with anyone outside their households,” Morrow says in a statement he posted on his department’s website last month. “I’ve been saying this for about 10 months now. If you didn’t listen to my (and many others’) entreaties before, I don’t think you’ll likely change your behavior based on a new order. I appreciate that some of you think I (or the government) have magical abilities to change everyone’s behavior, but I assure you, I (we) do not.”

You may quibble with Morrow’s advice, which on its face does not allow for “non-essential” but low-risk activities such as outdoor dining and recreation. But his basic point is valid: When it comes to reducing virus transmission, individual choices matter more than government policy. “What I believed back in May, and what I believe now,” Morrow says, is that “the power and authority to control this pandemic lies primarily in your hands, not mine.”

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What They Said About Lockdowns Before 2020

What They Said About Lockdowns Before 2020

Authored by Amelia Janaskie via The American Institute For Economic Research,

In 2020, beliefs about how to handle a new virus shifted massively.

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, mainstream epidemiology and public health entities doubted – or even rejected – the efficacy of lockdowns and mass quarantines because they were considered ineffective.

This all changed in March 2020, when sentiment flipped in support of lockdown measures.

Still, there is a vast body of evidence explaining their original stance and why these mandates do not work. 

  1. Fauci said that shutting down the country does not work. (January 24, 2020) 

Early into 2020, Fauci spoke to reporters saying, “That’s something that I don’t think we could possibly do in the United States, I can’t imagine shutting down New York or Los Angeles, but the judgement on the part of the Chinese health authorities is that given the fact that it’s spreading throughout the provinces… it’s their judgement that this is something that in fact is going to help in containing it. Whether or not it does or does not is really open to question because historically when you shut things down it doesn’t have a major effect.”

  1. World Health Organization Report discusses NPIs and why quarantine is ineffective. (2019)

In a table, WHO lists their recommendations of NPIs depending on severity level. Quarantine of exposed individuals is categorized as “not recommended in any circumstances.” The report explains that “home quarantine of exposed individuals to reduce transmission is not recommended because there is no obvious rationale for this measure, and there would be considerable difficulties in implementing it.”

  1. WHO acknowledges social-distancing did not stop or dramatically reduce transmission during the 1918 influenza pandemic. (2006)

The WHO authors ultimately conclude that NPIs, including quarantining, require better and more focused methods to make them more effective and less “burdensome.” “Ill persons,” the authors assert, “should remain home when they first become symptomatic, but forced isolation and quarantine are ineffective and impractical.” Summarizing reports from the 1918 influenza pandemic the WHO cites Lomé (British-occupied Togo) and Edmonton (Canada) as places where “isolation and quarantine were instituted; public meetings were banned; schools, churches, colleges, theaters, and other public gathering places were closed.” Yet, despite additional measures (Lomé halted traffic, and Edmonton restricted business hours) in both cases “social-distancing measures did not stop or appear to dramatically reduce transmission.” A United States, comprehensive report on the 1918 pandemic also concluded that closures “[were] not demonstrably effective in urban areas but might be effective in smaller towns and rural districts, where group contacts are less numerous.” 

  1. study in the Bulletin of Mathematical Biology regarding the 1918 influenza pandemic in Canada also concluded quarantines do not work. (2003)

The study simulated different levels of travel and found that travel limits could be effective but “that a policy of introducing quarantine at the earliest possible time may not always lead to the greatest reduction in cases of a disease.” The authors conclude that, “quarantine measures limiting intercommunity travel are probably never 100% effective, and simulation results suggest that such a situation may actually make things worse, especially in the absence of strong efforts to keep infectious individuals isolated from the rest of the population.”

  1. Popular author and Tulane adjunct professor John M. Barry, a strong opponent of the Great Barrington Declaration, argued that quarantines do not work in the case of the Spanish Flu. (2009)

Over a decade ago, Barry found that historically quarantines have been unsuccessful: “This author supports most proposed NPIs except for quarantine, which historical evidence strongly suggests is ineffective, and possibly school closing, pending analysis of recent events.” And instead promotes commonly touted measures, such as remaining home when unwell (and isolating from family members while doing so), frequently washing hands, and wearing a mask if you are sick. On the latter point he warns against healthy people wearing masks, noting: “Evidence from the SARS outbreak suggests that most health care workers infected themselves while removing protective equipment.”

  1. Seton Hall’s Center for Global Health Studies Director says travel restrictions did not delay the transmission of SARS. (2009)

Yanzhong Huang acknowledges that “travel restrictions and quarantine measures have limited benefit in stopping the spread of disease […] affecting travel and trade, dissuading the very kind of transparency and openness essential for a global response to disease outbreaks.” These measures ultimately undermine a country’s surveillance capacity because “people who show symptoms might choose to shun public health authorities for fear of quarantine or stigmatization [and squander] limited health resources […] Laurie Garrett of the Council on Foreign Relations [noted] by July signs of fatigue and resource depletion had already set in most of the world.

  1. A study from Wake Forest University encounters ‘self-protection fatigue’ in simulated epidemic. (2013)

Study uses a multiplayer online game to simulate the spread of an infectious disease through a population composed of the players. The authors find that “people’s willingness to engage in safe behavior waxes or wanes over time, depending on the severity of an epidemic […] as time goes by; when prevalence is low, a ‘self-protection fatigue’ effect sets in whereby individuals are less willing to engage in safe behavior over time.” They say this is “reminiscent of condom fatigue—the declining use of condom as a preventive measure—in the context of HIV/AIDS prevention.”

  1. In Biosecurity and Bioterrorism journal, Johns Hopkins epidemiologists reject quarantines outright. (2006)

In an article titled, “Disease Mitigation Measures in the Control of Pandemic Influenza,” JHU epidemiologists note problems with lockdowns: “As experience shows, there is no basis for recommending quarantine either of groups or individuals. The problems in implementing such measures are formidable, and secondary effects of absenteeism and community disruption as well as possible adverse consequences, such as loss of public trust in government and stigmatization of quarantined people and groups, are likely to be considerable.” Their concluding remark emphasized, “experience has shown that communities faced with epidemics or other adverse events respond best and with the least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least disrupted.”

  1. In a top journal, American Journal of Epidemiology, authors explain the conditions when quarantine would be effective, which do not align with the characteristics of Covid-19. (2006)

Specifically, they note that quarantines will only be effective when: (1) isolation is not possible; and (2) asymptomatic spread is significant and timed in a narrow way (none of which is the case for Covid). They conclude that “the number of infections averted through the use of quarantine is expected to be very low provided that isolation is effective.” And if isolation is ineffective? Then it will only be beneficial “when there is significant asymptomatic transmission and if the asymptomatic period is neither very long nor very short.” But, should mass quarantine be used it would “inflict significant social, psychological, and economic costs without resulting in the detection of many infected individuals.”

  1. In the Epidemiology Journal, Harvard and Yale professors Marc Lipsitch and Ted Cohen say delaying infection can leave the elderly worse off. (2008)

They explain how delaying the risk of infection can work counterintuitively when the pathogen is more lethal for older populations. They say, “Reducing the risk that each member of a community will be exposed to a pathogen has the attendant effect of increasing the average age at which infections occur. For pathogens that inflict greater morbidity at older ages, interventions that reduce but do not eliminate exposure can paradoxically increase the number of cases of severe disease by shifting the burden of infection toward older individuals.” Based on this analysis, Covid-19, which disproportionately harms the older more than the young, is better handled by allowing the community to be exposed, whether through natural infection or vaccination.

  1. A team of Johns Hopkins scholars say quarantines don’t work but are pursued for political reasons. (September 2019)

In the report, they explain how quarantine is more political than related to public health: “During an emergency, it should be expected that implementation of some NPIs, such as travel restrictions and quarantine, might be pursued for social or political purposes by political leaders, rather than pursued because of public health evidence.” Later on, they explain the ineffectiveness of quarantine: “In the context of a high-impact respiratory pathogen, quarantine may be the least likely NPI to be effective in controlling the spread due to high transmissibility.”

In March 2020, Michael Osterholm – now Biden’s Covid-19 advisor – also argued that lockdowns are not a “cure” for the pandemic, listing multiple costs from a lockdown. Yet, Osterholm’s New York Times article in August reveals a contrasting viewpoint, stating that “we gave up on our lockdown efforts to control virus transmission well before the virus was under control” by opening “too quickly.” Osterholm and (Neel) Kashkari promote a mandatory shelter-in-place “for everyone but the truly essential workers.”

Also in March 2020, these findings from the listed works and many others culminated in an open letter to vice-president Mike Pence signed by 800 medical specialists from numerous universities throughout the country which pointed out: “Mandatory quarantine, regional lockdowns, and travel bans[…] are difficult to implement, can undermine public trust, have large societal costs and, importantly, disproportionately affect the most vulnerable segments in our communities.”

While expert consensus regarding the ineffectiveness of mass quarantine of previous years has recently been challenged, significant present-day evidence continuously demonstrates that mass quarantine is both ineffectual at preventing disease spread as well as harmful to individuals. Learning the wrong lesson – assuming that mass quarantines are both good and effective – sets a dangerous precedent for future pandemics.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/14/2021 – 13:11

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Chip Stocks Soar To Record After Taiwan Semi Unveils $28BN Spending Blitz

Chip Stocks Soar To Record After Taiwan Semi Unveils $28BN Spending Blitz

Chip equipment stocks soared on Thursday, and the Philly Semiconductor index surging to a new all time high, after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, disclosed massive capital spending plans up to $28 billion into capital spending this year which Bloomberg called “a staggering sum”, aimed at expanding its technological lead and constructing a plant in Arizona to serve key American customers.

The company announced that its capital spending for 2021 would be between $25 billion to $28 billion, compared with $17.2 billion the previous year. About 80% of the outlay will be devoted to advanced processor technologies, suggesting TSMC anticipates a surge in business for cutting-edge chipmaking. One reason for this is that Intel, which on Wednesday announced a new CEO, is said to be contemplating a departure from tradition and outsourcing manufacture to the likes of TSMC.

For the December quarter, the company reported net income of NT$142.8 billion ($5.1 billion), up 23%, and well above expectations of NT$137.2 billion. That contributed to a 50% increase in full-year profit, the speediest rate of expansion since 2010. Sales in the December quarter climbed 14% to a record NT$361.5 billion, according to previously disclosed monthly numbers, helped in part by robust demand for Apple’s new 5G iPhones.

TSMC also expects revenue of $12.7 billion to $13 billion this quarter, well ahead of the $12.4 billion average of analyst estimates. According to Bloomberg calculations, that will power mid-teens sales growth this year, though that’s roughly half the pace of the increase in 2020.

The fourth-quarter results revealed growing contributions from TSMC’s most-advanced 5-nanometer process technology, which is used to make Apple’s A14 chips. That accounted for about 20% of total revenue during the quarter, more than doubling its share from the previous three months, while 7nm represented 29%. By segment, TSMC’s smartphone business contributed about 51% to revenue, while HPC was at 31%.

As Bloomberg reports, “the massive scale of TSMC’s envisioned capex plans — more than half its projected revenue for the year – underscores TSMC’s determination to maintain its dominance and supply its biggest American clients from Apple Inc. to Qualcomm Inc.”

At 52% of projected 2021 revenue, the chipmaker’s planned spending would be the sixth-highest among all companies with a value of more than $10 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The outlay may also ramp up pressure on Intel, whose budget for 2020 was roughly $14.5 billion.

TSMC’s ADRs jumped as much as 11% on Thursday. Supplier ASML Holding NV rose as much as 5.6% on Thursday.

TSMC’s strong spending plans served to lift most public chipmaker stocks: KLA, Applied Materials gained more than 7% on Thursday, while Lam Research, MKS Instruments, ASML and Brooks Automation rose more than 5%

“There is a very high level of confidence in potential demand in future years for TSMC to commit as it has for 2021 (and likely 2022 as well),” Stifel analyst Patrick Ho wrote in a research note, in which he called the spending plan “really big.” According to Ho, equipment stocks with some of the highest exposure to the chipmaker include Applied Materials, KLA and Nova Measuring Instruments. Entegris is also well exposed on the materials side and 5G strength should benefit back-end stocks like Teradyne and FormFactor, he said.

TSMC execs didn’t address reports about potential orders from Intel on Thursday, saying that they don’t discuss specific customers. Intel had held talks with the Asian firm after a series of inhouse technology slip-ups, people familiar have said, though it’s unclear whether the company may pivot after the appointment of a new CEO.

Meanwhile, exec reiterated that construction on a planned $12 billion plant in Arizona will begin this year, without specifying how much of the planned budget for this year will be allocated to the project. The factory will be completed by 2024, with initial target output of 20,000 wafers per month, though the company envisions having a “mega scale production site” over the long term, Chairman Mark Liu said.

Even as TSMC grows, foundries such as TSMC, UMC and Globalfoundries aren’t expanding fast enough to meet the pandemic-induced spike in demand for gadgets. Those bottlenecks snarled the flow of chips not just to cars, but also Xboxes and PlayStations and even certain iPhones. TSMC is by far the most advanced of the foundries responsible for making a significant portion of the world’s semiconductors, serving the likes of Qualcomm and NXP Semiconductors NV, which also supply the mobile and auto industries.

Indeed, as rivals like United Microelectronics fall behind and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. struggles with American sanctions, TSMC’s pivotal role is likely to expand in 2021. The company has been racing to meet demand from larger-volume electronics clients, exacerbating a severe shortage of automotive chips that’s forcing firms like Honda Motor Co. and Volkswagen AG to curtail production, according to Bloomberg.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/14/2021 – 12:55

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Georgia Rep Pledges To File Articles of Impeachment Against Joe Biden

Georgia Rep Pledges To File Articles of Impeachment Against Joe Biden

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is a newly elected Republican member from Georgia who pledged yesterday that “On January 21, 2021, I’ll be filing Articles of Impeachment against Joe Biden for abuse of power.”  That is precisely what I criticized Democrats for doing in challenging the legitimacy of Donald Trump’s election starting on the inauguration and raising repeated demands for impeachment for acts ranging from his criticism of NFL kneelers to his inflammatory tweets.

It was wrong for them and it is wrong of Greene and any other Republicans who want to engage in this type of retaliatory impeachment effort.

Green explained that “It’s time to take a stand,” she said. “I’m proud to be the voice of Republican voters who have been ignored.”

However, as I often point out in testimony in Congress, it is as important in our constitutional how you do something as what you do.  Impeachment should not be a recreational or retaliatory tool for the opposition.

I viewed this second impeachment as justifiable but poorly executed. There was an attack on Congress and Trump bore great responsibility in this disgraceful incident. My opposition to the second Trump impeachment was primarily to the use of a snap impeachment without even a hearing or chance to amend the language. I also had serious misgivings over the language of the article while I recognized that Trump’s conduct overall could be legitimately viewed as impeachable. I think that the House could have allowed for a hearing and an opportunity consider the implications of the language which I believe was too sweeping.  In the end, the language secured just 10 Republican votes. A more tailored article may have secured even more votes and a motion for censure might have secured a majority of both parties.

Greene suggested that her impeachment might be based on Biden’s controversial panel discussion at the Council on Foreign Relations where he talked about how he urged Ukrainian officials to fire Viktor Shokin, the country’s prosecutor in 2015, while he was vice president.

There is still no evidence that Biden took those actions to advantage or protect his son or any family business dealings.

Particularly after this painful week, pledging a tit-for-tat impeachment is neither helpful nor responsible.

It is wrong constitutionally and politically. What I said in 2017 in the face of Democratic calls for impeachment is still true today:

“History has already answered this call for impulse-buy impeachments. The Framers saw the great abuses caused not only by tyranny of nobility, but tyranny of the majority. They sought to insulate our government from the transient impulses of politics. Otherwise, impeachment becomes little more than grabbing any opportunistic excuse for impeachment like so many “straws” in the political wind.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/14/2021 – 12:37

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“Why West Virginia and South Dakota Are Beating California at the Vaccine Race”

The San Jose Mercury News (Lisa M. Krieger) has the story, and Bloomberg has the detailed data:

Through the icy hollows of West Virginia, members of the Army National Guard are driving precious doses of COVID-19 vaccines to the state’s independent pharmacies. So far six of every 100 residents have received the vaccine, making this poor and rural state the nation’s leader at getting shots in arms.

Halfway across the country, South Dakota has taken a very different yet equally effective approach: Divvying up its 66 vast and windswept counties among its major healthcare plans, it tasked each plan with vaccinating every resident in its assigned counties, using well-established courier services.

In contrast, the tech-savvy, populous and economic powerhouse of California has given only 2 doses per 100 residents, even though it has received roughly the same amount of vaccine, per capita, as those other states. The Golden State, with a larger, more fragmented and decentralized healthcare system, is relying on an ambitious but complex tiered priority system. Residents complain of poor messaging and confusion about who is eligible, saying they don’t know when, how and where to go for vaccination….

Michigan appears not to have been distributing the vaccines on Christmas weekend (Fri.-Sun.) and New Year’s weekend.

 

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