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Update on New Hampshire v. Massachusetts

On Saturday, I provided an overview of New Hampshire v. Massachusetts, an important “original jurisdiction” state vs. state case currently before the Supreme Court. At that time, I noted that we might know as soon as today how the Supreme Court intended to handle case, because this is the day when the Court would issue orders related to cases that went to conference on Friday, January 22 (including this one).

In reality, the only step the Court took on the case today, was issue an order inviting the acting Solicitor General “to file a brief in this case expressing the views of the United States.” Obviously, this is only a very modest step. But it does suggest the Court is taking the case seriously, and is unlikely to dismiss the case out of hand, as it did with a number of previous original jurisdiction cases, such as last month’s “Texas Turkey” attempting to overturn the election results in some key swing states.

It will also be interesting to see where the Biden Administration comes down on the case. As a general rule, Democratic administrations often favor the interests of high-tax blue states, which might mean supporting Massachusetts’ efforts to tax remote workers employed by Massachusetts firms, but working in other states. But, as the amicus briefs show, blue states are actually divided on this case, with Connecticut, New Jersey, and Hawaii joining a brief supporting New Hampshire. The latter is itself a purple state trending slowly blue, and a a potential swing state in presidential and senatorial elections.

One possible easy out for the administration would be to avoid taking a position on the substantive issue, but argue that New Hampshire doesn’t have standing to bring the case. That might also be attractive to them because clamping down on state standing might make it tougher for red states to sue the Biden Administration itself. I hope they do not go this route, but it’s certainly possible.

Historically, political liberals have often favored loose standing rules, while conservatives have favored tighter ones. But that relationship has become muddled in recent years, as both right and left often take opportunistic positions on standing, depending on whose ox is being gored in a particular case. I myself have long favored abolishing standing requirements entirely, and I have held this view during both Democratic and Republican administrations. But I admit my position isn’t likely to prevail anytime soon.

Whatever the administration decides to do, it looks like this case isn’t likely to go away quickly. The Court has already had it under consideration for many weeks, and it seems increasingly likely that they are going to give it a full hearing.

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Dominion Files $1.3 Billion Defamation Suit Against Rudy Giuliani

This morning, U.S. Dominion, Inc. made good on its threats to sue Rudy Giuliani by filing a $1.3 billion defamation suit against him for propagating and repeating various unfounded conspiracy claims about Dominion Voting Systems and its various election-related products. This suit follows on a similar filing against Sidney Powell, demand letters filed against conservative media outlets, and a threatened suit against My Pillow CEO Mike Lindell.

Dominion’s complaint is available here. The opening reads:

During a court hearing contesting the results of the 2020 election in Pennsylvania, Rudy Giuliani admitted that the Trump Campaign “doesn’t plead fraud” and that “this is not a fraud case.” Although he was unwilling to make false election fraud claims about Dominion and its voting machines in a court of law because he knew those allegations are false, he and his allies manufactured and disseminated the “Big Lie,” which foreseeably went viral and deceived millions of people into believing that Dominion had stolen their votes and fixed the election. Giuliani reportedly demanded $20,000 per day for that Big Lie. But he also cashed in by hosting a podcast where he exploited election falsehoods to market gold coins, supplements, cigars, and protection from “cyberthieves.” Even after the United States Capitol had been stormed by rioters who had been deceived by Giuliani and his allies, Giuliani shirked responsibility for the consequences of his words and repeated the Big Lie again. This defamation action follows.

Among other things, the complaint stresses that while Giuliani often repeated outrageous, unfounded claims against Dominion–and promoted the ravings of Sidney Powell, among others, on television and various public fora–he was careful not to include such allegations in any legal filings in which he participated, likely because he feared court discipline or other adverse consequences from such filings.

According to Axios, additional suits are possible, including perhaps a suit against Trump himself. And, of course, a suit against Lindell is still possible.

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Why Don’t We Know How Many Vaccine Doses Are Being Thrown Away?

With health care providers running out of doses in droves and hustling to cancel thousands of appointments, many face an additional problem: Hobbled by strict guidelines for who can and cannot receive vaccines right now, and fines for flouting the rules, perfectly good doses are being thrown in the garbage. “I have personally heard stories like this from dozens of physician friends in a variety of different states. Hundreds, if not thousands, of doses are getting tossed across the country every day,” Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told NBC News.

It’s an entirely predictable outcome. When vials of doses are thawed to prepare them for use, they cannot be refrozen. Vials that have been punctured must be used within just a few hours. Combine those factors with tight state-imposed parameters for which people can currently receive the vaccine and waste is practically unavoidable—when people cancel appointments with little notice, it can be hard for health care workers to find new recipients off the street who qualify under the state’s current phase. They’re left either breaking the law or throwing doses in the garbage.

To make matters worse, state departments of health are struggling to tell how often it’s happening or how many precious doses have been squandered. Although many states mandate reporting of vaccine waste, providers have little incentive to comply: If New York’s system is any indication, they might end up fined or under investigation.

In the Empire State, mass vaccination sites at Yankee Stadium and Citi Field have put operations on hold until the city can receive 200,000 shots per week—double what’s currently expected. But just a few weeks ago, providers were throwing out doses. As I wrote then:

“On December 28, [Gov. Andrew Cuomo] signed an executive order rolling out strict penalties—up to $1 million in fines, plus loss of medical license—for medical providers who allow people to skip the state-issued vaccination line, even when those doses are about to expire….Predictably, The New York Times reported today that some clinics throughout New York City, like the Family Health Center of Harlem, are throwing out doses that are about to expire.”

Meanwhile, a hospital in New Rochelle, New York, came under investigation for potentially allowing people to skip the vaccine line. All their doses were seized and reallocated elsewhere.

Medical providers are engaging in indefensible but perfectly rational behavior when they throw out doses; it’s reasonable to be afraid of fines, and they have no incentive to report vaccine waste to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), despite being asked to do so. As the nonprofit investigative outlet ProPublica reports:

“In Washington, a health facility allegedly threw out some COVID-19 vaccine doses at the end of workers’ shifts because staff believed state guidelines blocked them from giving unused shots to people below the top priority tier. In Maryland, workers appear to have tossed thawed doses when they ran out of time to administer them safely. How many doses, exactly, have been wasted in those states is unknown because neither state is tracking unused or wasted vaccines.”

ProPublica found that some amount of vaccine waste is also occurring in Indiana, Michigan, and New Jersey; it’s totally unclear whether these are isolated incidences or not. In Pueblo, Colorado, 300 doses had to be thrown out after a refrigeration malfunction. And NBC News reports that this is happening in Oregon, Ohio, and Massachusetts as well. Providers and state officials in North Carolina and Virginia allege they’re doing a bit better,

This latest government failure to track the number of doses going to waste is awfully reminiscent of the failure to track school reopening data—something you’d think would be absolutely essential to determining whether school districts can return to in-person instruction. Once those data were collected, experts like Brown University economist Emily Oster were able to make the cautious case for school reopenings, being able to be more confidently assert that schools were not a significant vector for COVID-19 transmission. It’s equally crucial in this situation that states have accurate data as to how many doses are being thrown out and why.

“Vaccines are worth more than gold and we don’t have enough. We can’t afford to waste a ml.,” George Mason University economics professor Alex Tabarrok tells Reason. “Indeed, until production is much higher we need to consider every possible method of ‘stretching’ our doses such as using low dead-volume syringes, half-dosing, and moving to First Doses First.”

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Biden Reverses Trump’s Transgender Military Ban

President Biden on Monday repealed former President Trump’s ban on transgender individuals serving in the US military – signing an executive order that “sets the policy that all Americans who are qualified to serve in the Armed Forces of the United States should be able to serve,” according to a fact sheet circulated by new Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin following a meeting with Biden.

“President Biden believes that gender identity should not be a bar to military service, and that America’s strength is found in its diversity,” said the fact sheet. “Allowing all qualified Americans to serve their country in uniform is better for the military and better for the country because an inclusive force is a more effective force.”

Transgender troops and their taxpayer-funded medical and psychological treatment became a topic of controversy after President Trump tweeted in July 2017 that he wanted to ban them from the military. In January, 2019, the US Supreme Court ruled that a modified ban could take effect while lower court challenges to Trump’s ban continued.

Also known as gender dysphoria, transgenderism is recognized by the medical and mental health community. In a February 2019 article, USA Today noted that “the cost of treating troops with the diagnosis of gender dysphoria has totaled $7,943,906.75. That included 22,992 psychotherapy visits, 9,321 prescriptions for hormones and 161 surgical procedures,” adding “Surgeries performed included 103 breast reductions or mastectomies, 37 hysterectomies, 17 “male reproductive” procedures and four breast augmentations. Psychotherapy sessions cost nearly $5.8 million and surgery cost more than $2 million, according to the data.”

Biden’s executive order revokes Trump’s 2017 and 2018 orders banning transgender military service, and orders the Pentagon and the Department of Homeland Security to ensure that all policies are in-line with his executive action.

“Simply put, transgender servicemembers will no longer be subject to the possibility of discharge or separation on the basis of gender identity; transgender servicemembers can serve in their gender when transition is complete and the gender marker in the Defense Enrollment Eligibility Reporting System (DEERS) is changed and transgender servicemembers should know that they are accepted throughout the U.S. military,” reads the fact sheet.

Biden pledged during the presidential campaign he would lift Trump’s ban, referring to it as a “day one” priority. But it was not among the batch of executive orders Biden signed hours after his inauguration last Wednesday amid a delay in Austin’s confirmation. With Austin’s confirmed Friday, Biden was expected to act as soon as Monday.

The Obama administration, in which Biden was vice president, lifted the previous ban on transgender military service in 2016.

A RAND Corporation study commissioned by the Pentagon during the Obama administration found allowing open service would have “a minimal impact on readiness.” Additionally in 2018, the chiefs of the Army, Navy, Marines Corps and Air Force said in congressional testimony they had seen no problems with discipline, morale or unit cohesion resulting from transgender troops serving openly in the military. –The Hill

In 2019, the Pentagon established and implemented a policy to fulfill Trump’s order barring most transgender people from serving in the military unless they can perform their duties as their biological sex. There were loopholes, however, such as a waiver one could seek to serve openly. According to the report, just one such waiver was granted. The policy also allowed those who had come out under the Obama administration to continue serving openly.

An estimated 14,700 service members on active duty or in the reserves identify as transgender, according to The Hill, while Pentagon data shows that around 1,500 troops since 2016 have been diagnosed with gender dysphoria.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/25/2021 – 12:25

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Stocks Are Doing Something They Haven’t Done Since The Dot Com Bubble

With 66 S&P 500 companies, representing 22% of S&P 500 earnings, having already reported Q4 earnings, there was some good, some not so good, and some downright bizarre news this earnings season.

First, the good news: as Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian reports, S&P EPS rose 2% last week to $38.70 (-8% YoY) and 73% of companies have beaten on both sales and EPS, tracking similar to last quarter when we ultimately saw a record number of beats. This means that as of this moment, 4Q earnings are clearing BofA’s – and the consensus – EPS estimate by over 2% (but ex-Financials, earnings are tracking just 1% above expectations at the start of January). Despite Financials’ beat and overall positive 2021 guide, which was largely due to billions in reserve releases, the sector has lagged with Growth & Tech driving the S&P 500’s 2% return last week according to BofA’s Subramanian who however repeats that the bank “sees signs of a last gasp Growth trade, and advise sticking with Value.”

In the not so good news category, BofA notes that while S&P 500 non-Financial net margins unexpectedly rose 10bps YoY to 11.3%, – pointing to aggressive cost control implemented by companies – analysts expect a 70bps drop in net margins YoY to 10.2% in 4Q. Of the 10 sectors (ex-Fins), only Materials is expected to see higher margins YoY (+1.0ppt). Indeed, the bank’s own Corporate Misery Indicator, which has been strongly correlated with, and sometimes led, the profits cycle, also took a pause in 4Q, indicating sluggish earnings recovery in 4Q.

That said, there was a silver lining to the expected margin contraction: BofA’s predictive analytics team used earnings calls transcripts to calculate sentiment for S&P500 companies that have reported this earnings season. It found that corporate sentiment remains positive so far and is now largely unchanged vs. pre-COVID 4Q19 levels, despite a weaker reading vs. last quarter on a YoY basis. That said, sentiment is expected to continue to improve from here as the economy reopens.

Which brings us to the downright bizarre: with the S&P 500 trading at an all-time high and rich valuations, BofA observes that there has been no reward for beats so far this earnings season (similar to last quarter) in fact, a record 1.6% underperformance penalty – for beats. Are investors rewarding positive outlooks (where 2021 expectations have risen by 1.5% since Jan. 1)? Quite the opposite: so far we see a very unusual penalty for raising guidance – 20bps of negative 1-day alpha vs. the average positive 2ppt alpha since 2007. What this means is that companies which beat on both sales and EPS underperformed the S&P 500 by 1.6% the following day, representing the worst reactions in BofA data history going back to the dot com bubble days of 2000!

It gets crazier: where there were also no rewards for above-consensus guidance (-20bps vs. +2.1ppt on average since 2007), companies which missed on both revenue and EPS actually outperformed the S&P the next day!

Why does this matter? Well, the last time we saw such a reaction to earnings was in Q2 2000… after which the S&P 500 fell by 13% over the next three months amid a marked change in leadership, with Value outperforming growth by over 25ppt.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/25/2021 – 12:15

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Five ways to loosen Big Tech’s grip on your life

I imagine there are countless people right now who feel a wide range of emotions when it comes to Big Tech companies. Anger. Disgust. Confusion. Fear.

We’ve watched with exasperation as Google, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, etc. have systematically squashed intellectual dissent; their actions have been so commonplace that there’s even a name for it: “De-platforming”.

We all know there’s a ton of garbage on the Internet, including from mainstream sources.

But de-platforming has proven to be wholeheartedly biased, totally arbitrary, and often comically ridiculous.

This isn’t just about the election or the Capitol. For example, if you dare utter a word on social media that goes against the infinite and infallible wisdom of the Chinese-controlled World Health Organization, then you might find yourself banned.

YouTube even suspended a renowned epidemiologist– a bona fide pandemic expert– because he opposed lockdowns and was hence ‘dangerous’.

Facebook censored more than 22 million posts in Q2 of 2020 for ‘hate speech’. Naturally, its entirely up to Facebook to define hate speech and judge whether or not you’re using it.

#killallmen, for example, is NOT considered hate speech. And even by the company’s own admission, hate speech against men, or white people, is a low priority.

It’s clear these companies have an enormous amount of unchecked power. They have the ability to erase you from the Internet, destroy your reputation, and, if you’re someone who makes money online, terminate your livelihood.

But the only reason they have this power is because we’ve given it to them. Hundreds of millions of people have intertwined their entire lives into the Big Tech ecosystem, to the point that they know absolutely everything about us.

People post practically every detail of their lives on Instagram. They tell Zuckerberg what they like and dislike on their Facebook profiles. They tell Jack Dorsey what they believe in on their Twitter feeds.

They give Google free license to spy on every single email that’s sent or received; Google even keeps track of the things that you buy, archiving receipts from online purchases in your inbox and aggregating all of it into your advertising profile.

Through its Maps, Drive, and Calendar applications, Google has access to our schedule, our location, and our confidential files.

They know what we’re searching for. They know what we’re saying. They know what we’re doing.

And at a certain point, a rational human being might be compelled to say “enough is enough”. How can anyone possibly trust these people with their data anymore?

The good news is that there are tons of solutions.

In fact, distancing yourself from the Big Tech companies is one of the easiest ways you can declare your own independence and regain a bit of freedom and security. Below I outline a few options to consider:

1. Absolutely use a VPN

Your device, whether your mobile phone, laptop, or even smart TV, has an IP address, and it’s something that the tech companies use to track you.

Whenever you go to Google’s homepage to search for something, for example, Google already knows it’s you.

And many websites around the Internet will track you by IP address, often sharing this information with Google, Facebook, etc.

Using a VPN helps create anonymity online because you’re no longer accessing those websites from your own IP address.

Right now, for example, even though I’m sitting at home in Puerto Rico, I’m using a VPN service and accessing the Internet through a server in Panama. So any website I visit thinks that I’m in Panama.

There are several VPN providers which, as a policy, do NOT keep logs of their customers’ activities, including VyprVPN and NordVPN.

2) Change your search engine

There’s more to the world than Google search, and plenty of other search engines exist which won’t spy on you. Among them– DuckDuckGo, which is based in the United States, and SwissCows, which is based in Switzerland.

3) Change your web browser

If you use Google Chrome, chances are pretty good that your browser is constantly feeding data back to the mother ship. Everywhere you go on the Internet, Chrome is telling Google about it.

But there are plenty of other browsers out there which are far more privacy oriented. “Brave” is one such browser; it’s open-source, which means that its source code is freely available. And it is automatically set up to block trackers and ads to help protect your privacy.

If you do those three things: VPN, change your search engine, and change your browser, you will take a giant leap forward in distancing yourself from Big Tech.

Those three steps will make it much more difficult for Facebook and Google to track you. But here are a few more to consider:

4) Consider more privacy-oriented chat applications

In a couple of weeks, WhatsApp (which is owned by Facebook) will force all users to accept its new privacy policy. Among other things, this means that ALL of your contacts will be shared with Zuckerberg.

There are better options– like Signal. Signal is ultra-secure, built for privacy, and its source code is open source. There are versions for iOS, Android, PC, Mac, and Linux.

5) Ditch Gmail

You might think that Gmail is free, but you’re paying for it with your personal data.

Google’s algorithms automatically scan every incoming email and mine data about you, all of which ends up in your advertising profile.

There are plenty of other services to use, free and paid. If you’re interested in encryption and security, you might consider Switzerland-based ProtonMail, or Iceland-based CTemplar.

There are endless possibilities to reduce Big Tech influence in your life, and these suggestions barely scratch the surface.

More advanced readers might ditch their operating system altogether for an open-source Linux distribution, or even load a custom ROM on their phone to replace Google’s Android.

For now, start small. These suggestions above are easy steps to get started, and they’ll make a huge difference.

Source

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Rock Legend Frank Zappa Battles Censorship, Communism, and Conformity in a New Documentary

Before his death from prostate cancer in 1993, Rock & Roll Hall of Fame member Frank Zappa spent time in jail for making an obscene recording requested by undercover cops, released 60 records in every genre imaginable, became one of the first modern musical artists to start his own company, testified before Congress that labeling music due to lyrical content was an attack on free speech, and inspired Vaclav Havel and others fighting Czechoslovakia’s repressive communist regime. He packed a hell of a lot into 52 years, and made a lot of waves and enemies along the way.

Zappa is the subject of an eponymous new documentary by Alex Winter, whose previous films include Downloaded (a study of Napster and unauthorized file sharing), Deep Web (a look at Ross Ulbricht and the Silk Road), and Trust Machine (an exploration of how blockchain technology decentralizes power; go here for a Reason interview with him about that film).

“Zappa,” says Winter, who is also well-known for his acting in the Bill & Ted series and other films, “matters because he was an extremely talented and composer but also because…he was very anti-authoritarian, very anti-fascist, very pro–citizens’ rights. He also saw the tech revolution coming. In all of these extremely interesting ways, Zappa was ahead of the curve.” Although his politics, like his music, defy easy (or any, really) categorization, Winter says that Zappa’s overriding beliefs in free speech, individualism, and entrepreneurship carried strong libertarian connotations.

Narrated by Nick Gillespie; edited by Meredith Bragg.

Photo Credits: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS / Album/Newscom; Album / Francesc Fàbregas/Newscom; Philippe Gras/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Keystone Press Agency/ZUMA Press/Newscom; SONY PICTURES CLASSICS / Album/Newscom; Philippe Gras / Le Pictorium/Newscom; Rowntree, Bill/Mirrorpix/Newscom; KEYSTONE Pictures USA/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Alain Dister/DAPR/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Tschiponnique Skupin/ZUMApress/Newscom; Pamela Price/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Mirrorpix/Newscom

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Chicago Teachers Union Refuses Order To Go Back to Classrooms

Members of the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) voted overwhelmingly on Sunday to continue to teach remotely—even though district officials want teachers back in classrooms beginning this week.

Chicago Public Schools Chief Executive Officer Janice Jackson described any refusal to come to work on Monday as an “illegal strike,” according to The Washington Post.

The union reported that roughly 86 percent of its 25,000 members participated in the vote, and 71 percent of teachers wanted to keep teaching remotely. “CPS did everything possible to divide us by instilling fear through threats of retaliation, but you still chose unity, solidarity and to collectively act as one,” said the union in a statement.

The union has previously claimed that the push to reopen schools is rooted in “sexism and racism,” even though the inadequacies of virtual education are disproportionately harming young people of color and forcing hundreds of thousands of women to exit the work force. And when the district decided to hire 2,000 new employees to assist students in the classroom if their teachers opt to continue with distance learning, the union objected to that plan, too.

This is completely unreasonable—and totally unfair to the kids and parents held hostage by politically powerful teachers unions. Many families would undoubtedly prefer to reclaim the per-pupil dollars forcibly confiscated via taxation and spend that money on education options that actually meet their kids’ needs: private school, pod-based learning, tutoring, etc. But the public school system obviously won’t give back the money; it will continue to compensate teachers even if they refuse to work.

Completely unreasonable behavior is not solely the province of Chicago’s teachers: In Fairfax, Virginia, teachers union boss Kimberly Adams expressed opposition to five-day in-person learning next fall, even if all the teachers have been vaccinated. In an email to Reason, Adams confirmed that she believes the hybrid model—two days of in-person learning and three days of virtual learning—should remain in place.

“Concern remains that students will not be vaccinated before they return to school,” said Adams. “This requires that we maintain the hybrid model and continue social distancing, masking and all the other mitigation strategies.”

Of course, there’s no plan to vaccinate most students—because the vaccines aren’t even approved for kids younger than 16. What Adams is suggesting is essentially that schools should remain mostly virtual indefinitely.

This is a horrifying prospect for many families. It’s especially tough for the kids themselves. Nevada’s Clark County School District, which includes Las Vegas, recently made the decision to reopen, in part because of a rash of suicides among young people.

“When we started to see the uptick in children taking their lives, we knew it wasn’t just the Covid numbers we need to look at anymore,” Jesus Jara, Clark County’s superintendent, told The New York Times. “We have to find a way to put our hands on our kids, to see them, to look at them. They’ve got to start seeing some movement, some hope.”

That Times report, which goes into great detail about the pandemic-inflicted mental health crisis among kids, is not for the faint of heart. Young people, thankfully, have very little to fear from the disease itself. But society’s strategies for coping with COVID-19 have impacted them severely. Many of the most disadvantaged children—those who rely on the public school system—have been at home for nearly an entire year. We are already seeing the effects on their mental health, and the future will likely bring equally bad consequences in terms of their educational achievements, college prospects, and beyond.

This is all happening despite the fact that schools can reopen safely, and have never been associated with significant COVID-19 spread. With teachers at the front of the vaccination line in many states, the already thin argument for continuing to traumatize children in the name of public safety is hard to take seriously.

Yet teachers unions, in Chicago and elsewhere, are holding the public education system hostage. Their petty defiance is not just cruel, but also contrary to both established science and the clear interests of families. Letting a class of government employees become this powerful should be treated as a clear failing of public policy.

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Will Venezuela Go To War Over Oil?

By Viktor Katona of Oilprice.com

January 2021 is still far from over yet the pages of Oilprice already boast 6 articles about Guyana being the hottest drilling spot in the world. This is hardly surprising, considering the hot streak that ExxonMobil had over the past 5 years, with new companies coming in and stepping up the drilling game. The interest globally attributed to Guyana has aggravated Venezuela’s long-standing grievances over the disputed Essequibo province – before 2015 the Venezuela vs Guyana oil standoff was akin to a David vs Goliath story but now, with Guyana building up its oil reserves tally and continuing to attract new investors, the balance has become a lot more nuanced. Amidst all of this, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has pledged to reconquer Essequibo. At first glance, the proposition that Venezuela should go to war over a disputed territory, let alone with Guyana, seems rather dubious. Venezuela boasts the world’s largest proven oil reserves, totalling roughly 304 Bbbls (see Graph 1), i.e. more than all of North America combined, more than Iraq and Iran combined. Guyana’s reserves are a fraction of that, barely reaching 3% with its 9-10 Bbbls. However, behind the dry facade of data and statistics, there lies an entire universe of human emotions, oftentimes led astray due to their subjective nature and in this particular realm, Caracas is the one frustrated and concerned. Guyana is adding one major discovery after another (the recent failure of Hassa-1 notwithstanding), whilst the Venezuelan national oil company PDVSA keeps on struggling to make ends meet.

Graph 1. Venezuela’s Proven Oil Reserves 1980-2019 (billion barrels).

The dispute over Guayana Esequiba (alternatively dubbed the Essequibo Region) is one of the most complex remaining, mixing colonial legacies with modern-day grievances. It all began in 1840 when the British Empire demarcated the heretofore undisputed and unsettled frontier between British Guiana and Venezuela, by means the “Schomburgk Line”. To no one’s surprise Venezuela rejected the British claim, however, unwilling as they were to get mired in a protracted conflict, both sides agreed to disagree in 1850 and vowed not to colonize the then-largely uninhabited region. Despite arbitrations and negotiations, the question of who should control the Essequibo Region remained unsolved by the time of Guyana declaring itself independent in 1966. Caracas recognized the independent Guyana, however only its territories located to the east of the Essequibo River, maintaining its claim that all the territories to the west are part of Venezuela.

One of the most protracted territorial disputes globally, the discovery of oil offshore Guyana might have been the factor missing to propel the issue forward. ExxonMobil, the operator of Guyana’s Stabroek offshore block, was subject to maritime harassment by the Venezuelan Navy and had one of its surveying vessels detained in 2013. However, when Exxon discovered the Liza field in 2015, closer to the Guyanese-Surinamese frontier and hence were beyond the Venezuelan maritime claim, the stakes turned really high. Guyana had official proof that its offshore was not sub-commercial as was previously thought (initially companies appraised the shallow waters of Guyana and found no commercial deposits) and with the help of a US major could now count on high-level backing for its border case.

With every new discovery on the Stabroek block, Venezuela’s opposition to Guyana taking the left bank of the Essequibo River was becoming increasingly untenable. Concurrently, the good neighbor relations of the Chavez era when Guyana was member to the continent-wide Petrocaribe movement and even participated in barter deals to satisfy its crude needs, went downhill fairly quickly.
Yet there is another factor that most certainly contributed to Caracas now striking such a belligerent tone – US sanctions against Venezuela. Not only did the tightening of screws on President Maduro’s political allies and relatives blunt the political prospects of Juan Guaido, it also led to the entry of Venezuela’s military (that remained loyal to Maduro amidst the worst humanitarian suffering) into the Latin American country’s oil industry.

Any future US administration will most probably seek to safeguard ExxonMobil’s assets in Guyana. A first sign of this – in the first days of 2021 the commander of the US Southern Command arrived in Guyana for a 3-day visit, to celebrate the launch of joint US-Guyanese coast exercises. According to top-ranking officials in the Guyanese army, Georgetown is intent on fortifying its military ties with the United States, including but not limited to arms purchases. Concurrently, Venezuela formed a new parliament which will no longer be controlled by the Guiado-style opposition – the pro-Maduro National Assembly will inevitably become more aggressive in its narrative and overall behavior. Part of the aggression might result from the UN Court of Justice’s ongoing review of the Essequibo case, the decision of which was already declined by Caracas before its actual deliverance.

So, will there be a war between Venezuela and Guyana? Such a scenario seems unlikely now.

First, Maduro might wait to see what the new Biden Administration has to offer, how will it tackle the Venezuelan conundrum.

Second, there is very little reason to heat up tensions now, when no final decision had been taken, the peak of confrontation should be around 2023/2024 when the ICJ is assumed to deliver its opinion on the legal status of the Essequibo Region.

Third, even if the ICJ rules in favor of Guyana which seems quite likely, Venezuela remains unlikely to trigger a military response, for fear of actual US retaliation. It is one thing to foil an amateurish coup attempt by a private military company (Operation Gideon in May 2020), an altogether different one to deal directly with the US military.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/25/2021 – 11:46

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California Gov Lifts COVID Stay-At-Home Order; Dr. Fauci Worries Jabs Won’t Stop Mutant Strains: Live Updates

Summary:

California Gov is lifting stay at home orders
Dr. Fauci criticizes US COVID approach, worries vaccines wont’ stop mutations
US cases, deaths, hospitalizations decline
Biden signs COVID travel bans
BoJo approves border crackdown
South Africa approves AZ vaccine for vaccinations
Macron expected to announce 3rd French lockdown
Oxford plans first trial of new COVID drug

* * *

It’s already mid-morning on Monday and it’s already turning out to be an interesting week for COVID-19 news. Following a WEF panel earlier this morning where Dr. Fauci heaped blame for any failures in fighting COVID on President Trump, California Gov Gavin Newsom on Monday said he plans to lift some regional stay at home orders.

Newsom is expected on Monday to lift regional coronavirus stay-at-home orders across California, a change that could allow restaurants and gyms in many counties to reopen outdoor dining and any other services.

All counties would return to the colored tier system that assigns local risk levels based on case numbers and rates of positive COVID cases. Most counties will go into the “widespread” risk tier, which permits hair salons to offer limited services indoors but restricts many other nonessential businesses . The change is expected to take effect immediately after Newsom’s announcement.

It’s not yet clear whether the decision will lead to easing of stay-at-home rules in Los Angeles County, which has become a national hotbed of the coronavirus, with hospitals overwhelmed by patients. In less than one month, more than 5K people have died of COVID-19 in the county alone.

In the US, cases, hospitalizations and new deaths have been falling across the board.

Last week, Dr. Fauci led the US delegation back to the WHO like a conquering hero, announcing that under the Biden Administration, the US would cooperate with the organization’s plan to distribute vaccine doses globally, while halting President Trump’s attempt to leave the UN-funded NGO.

Well, on Monday, Dr. Fauci joined a panel led by Bloomberg News CEO John Micklethwaite and a handful of other experts at the (virtual) WEF to discuss the global response to the COVID pandemic one year after the virus came bursting out of Wuhan, infecting the rest of the world.

Oddly, the WEF decided to name its panel “the Great Reset”, as if the same people weren’t still running the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. But the subtext was clear: With President Trump gone, the world can get back to the fundamentals of battling COVID-19.

really can’t make this up pic.twitter.com/3sUCb10Qgx

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 25, 2021

In the latest attempt to slander President Trump, the good doctor said during Monday’s forum that the US’s response to COVID-19 didn’t have a “science” focus, which “cost it dearly”, Dr. Fauci said, in the latest attempt to insinuate that President Trump – and Trump alone – is responsible for the 400K+ confirmed COVID deaths.

Fauci complained that the Trump administration had “a considerable amount of mixed messaging on what needed to be done from top down.” Like when Dr. Fauci first told people not to wear masks, before changing his mind? Or when he opposed travel bans, before changing his mind on that also?

Or, how about more recently, when he flip-flopped for banning travelers from South Africa?

When it comes to the South African strain, Dr. Fauci warned that the decline in vaccine efficacy could pose serious problems in the future.

He then blamed the fact that these public health issues had become “politically charged”. When public health issues become politically charged, like wearing a mask or not becomes a political statement, “you can’t imagine how destructive it is to any unified health message,” Dr. Fauci said.

The Pandemic “shed a very bright light” on America’s weaknesses, he added, without going into too much details.

Moving on, Dr. Fauci said he was worried about what might happen if people start to delay the second dose of their COVID vaccines, with Dr. Fauci insisting that the vaccines won’t achieve full efficacy without both doses.

Readers can watch the entire panel below:

Looking ahead, Dr. Fauci said the big question looking forward is figuring out whether the vaccines that have been developed in the West will be effective in stopping mutated versions of the vaccine. But the most important thing is that patients receive both doses of the vaccine, since full efficacy won’t kick in until the booster dose has been delivered.

Here’s some more COVID news for overnight and Monday morning:

US President Biden will sign an order on Monday to ban entry to most non-US citizens who have travelled to UK, Ireland, Brazil and South Africa. It was also reported that the CDC will sign an order requiring mask use on all flights, trains and ride-sharing vehicles, while it will not grant waivers for airlines seeking exemptions from COVID-19 testing requirements for all international flights. (Newswires)

Pfizer (PFE) will ship fewer COVID-19 vaccine vials to account for ‘extra’ doses in each vial and will account a 6th dose in each vial towards its prior commitment of supplying 200mln doses by end-July after it received FDA approval to change the vaccine’s formal authorization language to acknowledge an additional dose for a total 6 doses per vial. (New York Times)

UK PM Johnson is to approve a new border crackdown on Tuesday which could ban entry into the UK for nationals of COVID-19 hotpots, while there are also proposals for those arriving from hotspots including British citizens to be escorted to isolation hotels upon arrival where they will need to quarantine at their own expense.

Oxford University researchers are planning the first, large high-quality trial of ivermectin which is a low-cost drug that claimed to reduce deaths by 80% among patients in hospitals, although other scientists were sceptical of the data which was from a combination of 11 prior trials and said that more results would be required before it could be considered as a treatment. (The Times)

French President Macron may announce a 3rd national lockdown on Wednesday night which could take effect from the end of the week and last at least 3 weeks, amid concerns of a new wave of COVID-19 infections driven by the UK variant. (Journal du Dimanche)

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In other news, while the world frets about the South African COVID variat, the country’s health regulators have just approved AstraZeneca’s vaccine for use in the country, marking the first vaccine approved in South Africa.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/25/2021 – 11:32

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3a4uvii Tyler Durden