North Korea And US To Resume Nuclear Talks Saturday

North Korea And US To Resume Nuclear Talks Saturday

North Korea and the U.S. will resume working-level talks on Oct. 5, North Korea’s state news agency KCNA reported Tuesday, reviving the possibility that denuclearization talks have restarted after a failed February summit between both countries in Vietnam, reported The Wall Street Journal.

KCNA said both countries would have a preliminary meeting on Friday, followed by working-level talks on Saturday, citing a statement from Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui.

“The delegates of the DPRK side are ready to enter into the DPRK-U.S. working-level negotiations,” Choe said in the statement.

“It is my expectation that the working-level negotiations would accelerate the positive development of the DPRK-U.S. relations.”

Choe’s statement made no mention of an exact location or time for the planned weekend talks.

Denuclearization discussions between President Trump and Kim Jong-un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, failed to materialize any progress at a summit in Vietnam in February. Trump met with Kim in June at the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas; the meet and greet didn’t immediately revive talks between both countries until now.

For the last several months, North Korea conducted a series of short-range ballistic missile tests, while furiously commenting about U.S. and South Korean war drills.

North Korean Ambassador Kim Song told the U.N. General Assembly on Monday that it was up to the Trump administration whether negotiations “will become a window of opportunity or an occasion that will hasten the crisis.”

“The situation on the Korean Peninsula has not come out of the vicious cycle of increased tension, which is entirely attributable to the political and military provocations perpetrated by the U.S.,” the North Korean ambassador said.

Former U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton warned Monday that North Korea had no plans of denuclearizing.

“We welcome the agreement between North Korea and the United States to proceed with working-level negotiations on Oct. 5.” South Korea’s presidential Blue House said in a statement.

“Through this working-level negotiation, we hope that substantial progress will be made at an early date to achieve complete denuclearization and permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula.”

With talks set between North Korea and the U.S. on Saturday, Washington should show more flexibility towards North Korea, offering a step-by-step process, in which economic sanctions are lifted in return for incremental steps toward denuclearization.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 10/01/2019 – 14:45

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Pat Buchanan: “This What The Deep State Does To Outsiders”

Pat Buchanan: “This What The Deep State Does To Outsiders”

Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

“This is a very sad time for our country. There is no joy in this,” said Nancy Pelosi Saturday.

“We must be somber. We must be prayerful. … I’m heartbroken about it.”

Thus did the speaker profess her anguish — just four days after announcing that her Democratic House would conduct an impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump.

But is this how it really went down? Is this how Pelosi came to authorize an impeachment inquiry before she read the transcript of the conversation between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky?

Another explanation, based on the actual events, suggests itself.

By late September, Pelosi was under constant fire from the House “resistance” that wanted Trump impeached and whose numbers were slowly growing. What was the speaker to do?

The judiciary committee is the body historically authorized by a vote of the full House to conduct impeachment inquiries. But to Pelosi this was looking like a loser, a dead end, a formula for failure followed by a backlash against House Democrats and her own removal as speaker in January 2021, if not before.

How so? Her judiciary committee chairman, Jerrold Nadler, in his investigation of Trump, had presided over a debacle of a hearing where Trump ally Corey Lewandowski mocked the members. House Budget Committee Chair John Yarmuth called the hearing a “fiasco.”

Thus, when news broke of a July 25 conversation between Trump and the president of Ukraine, during which Trump allegedly urged Zelensky “eight times” to investigate Joe Biden and son Hunter Biden’s connections to corrupt oligarchs, Pelosi seized upon it to solve all her problems.

To satisfy the red-hots in her Democratic caucus, she announced an impeachment inquiry on her own. To spare her moderates the pain of having to vote for or against an inquiry, she skipped the floor vote.

To ensure the investigation was done swiftly, she took the franchise from Nadler and his judiciary committee and handed it to Adam Schiff and the intelligence committee. Now she is urging a narrowing of the articles of impeachment to just one — Trump’s request of Ukraine’s president to look into the Bidens.

Pelosi’s hope: Have one House vote on a single article of impeachment by year end; then send it on to the Senate for trial and be done with it.

This is Nancy Pelosi’s fast track to impeachment of Trump and ruination of his presidency. But, to be sure, she is “heartbroken” about all this.

For three years, the media-deep state axis has sought to overturn the election of 2016 and bring down Trump, starting with Russia-gate. Now it appears to have tailored and weaponized the impeachment process.

That is what this is all about. It always is. Then-editor Ben Bradlee of The Washington Post, when it looked like the Iran-Contra matter might break Ronald Reagan’s presidency, after his 49-state landslide, chortled, “We haven’t had this much fun since Watergate.”

This is what the deep state does to outsiders Middle America sends to Washington to challenge or dispossess it.

How should the Republican Party and Trump’s base respond?

Recognize reality. Whether or not Trump was ill-advised to suggest to the president of Ukraine that passing on the fruits of the investigation of Joe and Hunter Biden, the end game is bringing down Trump, democracy’s equivalent of regicide.

While the “whistleblower,” whose memo is the basis of these impeachment hearings, is well on his way to Beltway beatification, no campaign to depose the president can be allowed to cloak itself in anonymity indefinitely, for one man’s whistleblower is another man’s seditionist.

Whom did the whistleblower collaborate with to produce his memo? What is his background? What are his biases? The people have a right to know. And democracy dies in darkness, does it not?

Not until 30 years after Watergate did we learn the “whistleblower” known as “Deep Throat” was a corrupt FBI veteran agent who leaked grand jury secrets to The Washington Post to discredit acting Director Pat Gray and thereby become FBI director himself.

His identity was sheltered for three decades. For whose benefit?

Republicans should not allow Democrats to fast-track this process but should give their troops time to recognize the stakes involved, organize a defense and repel this latest establishment attempt to overthrow a president elected to come to the capital to corral that establishment.

Force all the Democratic candidates for president to take a stand on removing Trump for high crimes — over a nebulous phone call to Kiev.

And the U.S. Senate should refuse to take up and should return to the House any bill of impeachment done in a short-circuited and savagely partisan manner, as this one is being done. There should be no rush to judgment.

If the election of 2020 is going to be about President Trump, tell the nation that the people will decide his political fate in November 2020, and that of Joe Biden if Democrats believe he is as pure as the driven snow and choose to nominate him.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 10/01/2019 – 14:25

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D.C. Circuit Upholds FCC Decision to Rescind “Net Neutrality” (But Rejects FCC Attempt to Preempt Conflicting State Law)

Today, a partially divided three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit largely rejected challenges to the Federal Communications Commission’s 2018 decision to repeal its 2015 “net neutrality” decision (aka the “Open Internet Order”). In a per curiam opinion on behalf of Judges Millett and Wilkins, and Senior Judge Williams, the court concluded that given the broad degree of deference afforded to federal agencies, the FCC’s interpretation of its own statutory authority could withstand legal challenge and that the agency was entitled change course.

The FCC did not win across the board, however. The court rejected a key part of the FCC’s order that would have preempted conflicting state and local regulations. As a consequence, individual states may attempt to adopt “net neutrality” rules of their own. In addition, the court remanded a few issues to the FCC for greater examination and explanation, but otherwise left the new order intact.

The per curiam opinion in Mozilla v. FCC begins:

In 2018, the Federal Communications Commission adopted an order classifying broadband Internet access service as an information service under Title I of the Communications Act of 1934, as amended by the Telecommunications Act of 1996, Pub. L. 104–104, 110 Stat 56 (“the Act”). See In re Restoring Internet Freedom, 33 FCC Rcd. 311 (2018) (“2018 Order“). In so doing, the agency pursued a market-based, “light-touch” policy for governing the Internet and departed from its 2015 order that had imposed utility-style regulation under Title II of the Act.

Petitioners––an array of Internet companies, non-profits, state and local governments, and other entities––bring a host of challenges to the 2018 Order. We find their objections unconvincing for the most part, though we vacate one portion of the 2018 Order and remand for further proceedings on three discrete points. . . .

The 2018 Order accomplishes a number of objectives. First, and most importantly, it classifies broadband Internet as an “information service,” see 2018 Order ¶¶ 26–64, and mobile broadband as a “private mobile service,” see id. ¶¶ 65–85. Second, relying on Section 257 of the Act (located in Title II but written so as to apply to Titles I through VI), the Commission adopts transparency rules intended to ensure that consumers have adequate data about Internet Service Providers’ network practices. See id. ¶¶ 209–38. Third, the Commission undertakes a cost-benefit analysis, concluding that the benefits of a market-based, “light-touch” regime for Internet governance outweigh those of common carrier regulation under Title II, see id. ¶¶ 304–323, resting heavily on the combination of the transparency requirements imposed by the Commission under Section 257 with enforcement of existing antitrust and consumer protection laws, see id. ¶¶ 140– 154. The Commission likewise finds that the burdens of the Title II Order’s conduct rules exceed their benefits. See id. ¶¶ 246–266.

We uphold the 2018 Order, with two exceptions. First, the Court concludes that the Commission has not shown legal authority to issue its Preemption Directive, which would have barred states from imposing any rule or requirement that the Commission “repealed or decided to refrain from imposing” in the Order or that is “more stringent” than the Order. 2018 Order ¶ 195. The Court accordingly vacates that portion of the Order. Second, we remand the Order to the agency on three discrete issues: (1) The Order failed to examine the implications of its decisions for public safety; (2) the Order does not sufficiently explain what reclassification will mean for regulation of pole attachments; and (3) the agency did not adequately address Petitioners’ concerns about the effects of broadband reclassification on the Lifeline Program.

Both Judges Millett and Wilkins wrote separate concurring opinions stressing that they were obligated to uphold the FCC’s judgement under the Supreme Court’s Brand X decision, but neither seemed particularly happy about it.

Senior Judge Williams dissented in part. His separate opinion begins:

And be these juggling fiends no more believed,
That palter with us in a double sense;
That keep the word of promise to our ear,
And break it to our hope.

So says Macbeth, finding that the witches’ assurances were sheer artifice and that his life is collapsing around him. The enactors of the 2018 Order, though surely no Macbeths, might nonetheless feel a certain kinship, being told that they acted lawfully in rejecting the heavy hand of Title II for the Internet, but that each of the 50 states is free to impose just that. (Many have already enacted such legislation. See, e.g., Cal. S. Comm. on Judiciary, SB 822 Analysis 1 (2018) (explaining that California has expressly “codif[ied] portions of the recentlyrescinded . . . rules”).) If Internet communications were tidily divided into federal markets and readily severable state markets, this might be no problem. But no modern user of the Internet can believe for a second in such tidy isolation; indeed, the Commission here made an uncontested finding that it would be “impossible” to maintain the regime it had adopted under Title I in the face of inconsistent state regulation. On my colleagues’ view, state policy trumps federal; or, more precisely, the most draconian state policy trumps all else. “The Commission may lawfully decide to free the Internet from Title II,” we say, “It just can’t give its decision any effect in the real world.”

His opinion concludes:

My colleagues and I agree that the 1996 Act affords the Commission authority to apply Title II to broadband, or not. Despite the ample and uncontested findings of the Commission that the absence of preemption will gut the Order by leaving all broadband subject to state regulation in which the most intrusive will prevail, . . . and despite Supreme Court authority inferring preemptive power to protect an agency’s regulatory choices, they vacate the preemption directive. Thus, the Commission can choose to apply Title I and not Title II—but if it does, its choice will be meaningless. I respectfully dissent.

All together, the opinions are nearly 200 pages.

As preemption is an issue that divides the current Supreme Court in some unusual ways, it will be interesting to see whether a petition for ceriorari on the preemption question is forthcoming, and whether the Supreme Court believes this question is worthy of review.

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D.C. Circuit Upholds FCC Decision to Rescind “Net Neutrality” (But Rejects FCC Attempt to Preempt Conflicting State Law)

Today, a partially divided three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit largely rejected challenges to the Federal Communications Commission’s 2018 decision to repeal its 2015 “net neutrality” decision (aka the “Open Internet Order”). In a per curiam opinion on behalf of Judges Millett and Wilkins, and Senior Judge Williams, the court concluded that given the broad degree of deference afforded to federal agencies, the FCC’s interpretation of its own statutory authority could withstand legal challenge and that the agency was entitled change course.

The FCC did not win across the board, however. The court rejected a key part of the FCC’s order that would have preempted conflicting state and local regulations. As a consequence, individual states may attempt to adopt “net neutrality” rules of their own. In addition, the court remanded a few issues to the FCC for greater examination and explanation, but otherwise left the new order intact.

The per curiam opinion in Mozilla v. FCC begins:

In 2018, the Federal Communications Commission adopted an order classifying broadband Internet access service as an information service under Title I of the Communications Act of 1934, as amended by the Telecommunications Act of 1996, Pub. L. 104–104, 110 Stat 56 (“the Act”). See In re Restoring Internet Freedom, 33 FCC Rcd. 311 (2018) (“2018 Order“). In so doing, the agency pursued a market-based, “light-touch” policy for governing the Internet and departed from its 2015 order that had imposed utility-style regulation under Title II of the Act.

Petitioners––an array of Internet companies, non-profits, state and local governments, and other entities––bring a host of challenges to the 2018 Order. We find their objections unconvincing for the most part, though we vacate one portion of the 2018 Order and remand for further proceedings on three discrete points. . . .

The 2018 Order accomplishes a number of objectives. First, and most importantly, it classifies broadband Internet as an “information service,” see 2018 Order ¶¶ 26–64, and mobile broadband as a “private mobile service,” see id. ¶¶ 65–85. Second, relying on Section 257 of the Act (located in Title II but written so as to apply to Titles I through VI), the Commission adopts transparency rules intended to ensure that consumers have adequate data about Internet Service Providers’ network practices. See id. ¶¶ 209–38. Third, the Commission undertakes a cost-benefit analysis, concluding that the benefits of a market-based, “light-touch” regime for Internet governance outweigh those of common carrier regulation under Title II, see id. ¶¶ 304–323, resting heavily on the combination of the transparency requirements imposed by the Commission under Section 257 with enforcement of existing antitrust and consumer protection laws, see id. ¶¶ 140– 154. The Commission likewise finds that the burdens of the Title II Order’s conduct rules exceed their benefits. See id. ¶¶ 246–266.

We uphold the 2018 Order, with two exceptions. First, the Court concludes that the Commission has not shown legal authority to issue its Preemption Directive, which would have barred states from imposing any rule or requirement that the Commission “repealed or decided to refrain from imposing” in the Order or that is “more stringent” than the Order. 2018 Order ¶ 195. The Court accordingly vacates that portion of the Order. Second, we remand the Order to the agency on three discrete issues: (1) The Order failed to examine the implications of its decisions for public safety; (2) the Order does not sufficiently explain what reclassification will mean for regulation of pole attachments; and (3) the agency did not adequately address Petitioners’ concerns about the effects of broadband reclassification on the Lifeline Program.

Both Judges Millett and Wilkins wrote separate concurring opinions stressing that they were obligated to uphold the FCC’s judgement under the Supreme Court’s Brand X decision, but neither seemed particularly happy about it.

Senior Judge Williams dissented in part. His separate opinion begins:

And be these juggling fiends no more believed,
That palter with us in a double sense;
That keep the word of promise to our ear,
And break it to our hope.

So says Macbeth, finding that the witches’ assurances were sheer artifice and that his life is collapsing around him. The enactors of the 2018 Order, though surely no Macbeths, might nonetheless feel a certain kinship, being told that they acted lawfully in rejecting the heavy hand of Title II for the Internet, but that each of the 50 states is free to impose just that. (Many have already enacted such legislation. See, e.g., Cal. S. Comm. on Judiciary, SB 822 Analysis 1 (2018) (explaining that California has expressly “codif[ied] portions of the recentlyrescinded . . . rules”).) If Internet communications were tidily divided into federal markets and readily severable state markets, this might be no problem. But no modern user of the Internet can believe for a second in such tidy isolation; indeed, the Commission here made an uncontested finding that it would be “impossible” to maintain the regime it had adopted under Title I in the face of inconsistent state regulation. On my colleagues’ view, state policy trumps federal; or, more precisely, the most draconian state policy trumps all else. “The Commission may lawfully decide to free the Internet from Title II,” we say, “It just can’t give its decision any effect in the real world.”

His opinion concludes:

My colleagues and I agree that the 1996 Act affords the Commission authority to apply Title II to broadband, or not. Despite the ample and uncontested findings of the Commission that the absence of preemption will gut the Order by leaving all broadband subject to state regulation in which the most intrusive will prevail, . . . and despite Supreme Court authority inferring preemptive power to protect an agency’s regulatory choices, they vacate the preemption directive. Thus, the Commission can choose to apply Title I and not Title II—but if it does, its choice will be meaningless. I respectfully dissent.

All together, the opinions are nearly 200 pages.

As preemption is an issue that divides the current Supreme Court in some unusual ways, it will be interesting to see whether a petition for ceriorari on the preemption question is forthcoming, and whether the Supreme Court believes this question is worthy of review.

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The Latest Fight Over Eating Meat Ignores These 4 Essential Nutrition Truths

Nutrition researchers and doctors are at each other’s throats once again, this time over a recommendation published in the Annals of Internal Medicine that “adults continue to eat their current levels of red and processed meat unless they felt inclined to change them themselves.” 

This advice runs contrary to the consensus formed by most American medical organizations and the U.S. government, which says the optimal diet is one low in all kinds of meat and processed foods and higher in most kinds of vegetables, fruits, and grains. 

It’s yet another example of the ways that years of bad government diet recommendations, media myths, and disagreement between competing factions in the world of diet and nutrition science have combined to make for an incredibly confusing environment for people who want to eat better, tastier, healthier diets.

The panel of experts that made the red meat recommendation labeled its conclusions as a “weak recommendation” with “low-certainty evidence.” You can read the entire package from the American College of Physicians, which publishes the Annals, or just this summary: “We found low- to very low-certainty evidence that diets lower in unprocessed red meat may have little or no effect on the risk for major cardiometabolic outcomes and cancer mortality and incidence.”

This conclusion has sparked a fight between two groups that might best be described as “meat agnostics,” who believe that moderate meat consumption is not as risky as recently claimed, and “less meaters,” who argue that meat consumption does not occur in a vacuum, and—in the industrialized context—is generally bad. If you buy raw animal proteins, cook them yourself, and eat them with mostly greens, rainbow vegetables, and legumes, you probably agree with the new recommendation. If you eat most of your meat out of a can, wrapper, or bucket, you are why people are mad at the new recommendation.  

My own takeaway, as someone who overhauled his diet and successfully lost a lot of weight and brought his blood pressure down to optimal levels, is that this fight does a disservice to people who want to be healthy, or healthier, and feel confused by the daily onslaught of conflicting nutrition research. 

If you are in the latter camp, allow me to share with you my own recommendations for meat, plants, and all things food.  

Most diet advocates are uncompromising zealots. The best diet is the one that works for you.

I have a good friend who lost 100 pounds eating vegan. I lost 90 pounds eating pork chops for breakfast and meat at every meal, lots of vegetables, but almost no grains, pasta, rice, or fruit. Both of us have sustained our weight loss for many years by continuing to eat our respective diets, and both of us have optimal blood pressure, blood glucose levels, and cholesterol panels. Whose advice should you follow? 

The better question is, whose advice do you want to follow? Liking the idea of a diet is a good indicator that you’ll at least be able to start it. The next best question is, are you getting the results you wanted, whether it be improved biomarkers, better body composition, or weight loss? The third question is, can you eat this way 90 percent of the time for a long time? 

These are the questions that should inform your quest for the optimal diet. People succeed in improving their physical and mental health, testable biomarkers, and body composition using all kinds of different nutrition plans. I prefer something close to the keto diet, which can be adapted for omnivores, vegetarians, and vegans, but if you dig into the research conducted by the National Weight Control Registry, which surveys Americans who have lost weight and sustained that weight loss, you’ll find the keys to success are exercise, intentional and disciplined food choices, and keeping a close eye on their weight. In other words, what food types you eat matters less than how much you eat, how much you exercise, and how disciplined you are about eating and exercising. 

Processed foods are not inherently bad, but they do present a tradeoff.  

The rise of “processed” food that tastes good is both a massive human accomplishment and a double-edged sword. Processed foods, which are basically any food item that has been rendered nonperishable or includes multiple ingredients at the time of purchase, have made life easier by speeding up and simplifying food preparation. “Fortified” processed foods, meanwhile, have made it possible for the poorest people in the developed world to both consume adequate calories each day and get many of the micronutrients previously found only in a balanced diet of perishable meats, fruits, and vegetables.  

However, the proliferation of affordable, nonperishable food has played a major role in the rise of obesity and obesity-related diseases; more so, probably, than any other labor-saving technological development of the last century.

This does not mean processed food is bad, or that it should be banned or taxed out of reach, only that consuming processed foods is a tradeoff. These foods often taste fantastic, yet excessive consumption of processed foods can easily erase whatever benefits they provide through micronutrient fortification and time saved.

Expert consensus is hard to come by and overrated.

That the panelists published by the Annals are now under attack by their peers in medicine is just the latest example of the war over nutrition advice. Many academic nutrition researchers believe their work can save entire populations and are frustrated that they have to compete in a marketplace of ideas that does not elevate their findings over those of their peers, the advice of lay diet experts, and the marketing done by food companies. That the federal government has done such a hamfisted job of recommending the “right” advice and is slow to correct recommendations when consensus changes, is all the more infuriating. 

What’s more, popular media reporting on nutrition is often sloppy, sensationalized, and self-contradicting. Just look at the way the Annals recommendation was covered by The Washington Post: The researchers used the terms “weak recommendation” and “low-certainty” while the Post headlined its piece: “A study says full speed ahead on processed and red meat consumption. Nutrition scientists say not so fast.” The study did not say “full speed ahead” and its critics did not say “not so fast.” Debates in nutrition science are covered this way every single day in America’s most respected media outlets. 

The noise around nutrition science should not distract us from the fact that Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and other ailments with a lifestyle correlation are, in fact, a major health care expenditure in the U.S. and around the world; and that many humans in the industrialized world who should eat better both can afford to and would likely succeed with the right combination of external motivation and education. 

This is why nutrition researchers are constantly at each other’s throats. Each faction wants to have the final say, and for their peers and government to rally behind them. But it is futile to expect a single global nutrition paradigm to exist across varying economies, climates, and cultures, especially in the age of democratized media. 

You’re going to die regardless of what or how much you eat, but, on average, junk habits will kill you faster and decrease your quality of life. 

While there is no actual consensus on the optimal ratio of the three macronutrients (fat, carbohydrates, proteins), or on how much (if any) animal protein a person should consume each day, there is an actual, honest-to-God consensus against smoking cigarettes, drinking excessive alcohol, not sleeping enough, and consuming a diet made up mostly of processed foods. If you are the kind of person who desires certainty, nutritionists of every persuasion are certain about the above, if nothing else. 

And if you are the kind of person who feels liberated by the possibility that any number of nutritional paradigms can restore your health and improve your quality of life, there is no better time to be alive than today and no better marketplace of ideas than the one we have now. 

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The Latest Fight Over Eating Meat Ignores These 4 Essential Nutrition Truths

Nutrition researchers and doctors are at each other’s throats once again, this time over a recommendation published in the Annals of Internal Medicine that “adults continue to eat their current levels of red and processed meat unless they felt inclined to change them themselves.” 

This advice runs contrary to the consensus formed by most American medical organizations and the U.S. government, which says the optimal diet is one low in all kinds of meat and processed foods and higher in most kinds of vegetables, fruits, and grains. 

It’s yet another example of the ways that years of bad government diet recommendations, media myths, and disagreement between competing factions in the world of diet and nutrition science have combined to make for an incredibly confusing environment for people who want to eat better, tastier, healthier diets.

The panel of experts that made the red meat recommendation labeled its conclusions as a “weak recommendation” with “low-certainty evidence.” You can read the entire package from the American College of Physicians, which publishes the Annals, or just this summary: “We found low- to very low-certainty evidence that diets lower in unprocessed red meat may have little or no effect on the risk for major cardiometabolic outcomes and cancer mortality and incidence.”

This conclusion has sparked a fight between two groups that might best be described as “meat agnostics,” who believe that moderate meat consumption is not as risky as recently claimed, and “less meaters,” who argue that meat consumption does not occur in a vacuum, and—in the industrialized context—is generally bad. If you buy raw animal proteins, cook them yourself, and eat them with mostly greens, rainbow vegetables, and legumes, you probably agree with the new recommendation. If you eat most of your meat out of a can, wrapper, or bucket, you are why people are mad at the new recommendation.  

My own takeaway, as someone who overhauled his diet and successfully lost a lot of weight and brought his blood pressure down to optimal levels, is that this fight does a disservice to people who want to be healthy, or healthier, and feel confused by the daily onslaught of conflicting nutrition research. 

If you are in the latter camp, allow me to share with you my own recommendations for meat, plants, and all things food.  

Most diet advocates are uncompromising zealots. The best diet is the one that works for you.

I have a good friend who lost 100 pounds eating vegan. I lost 90 pounds eating pork chops for breakfast and meat at every meal, lots of vegetables, but almost no grains, pasta, rice, or fruit. Both of us have sustained our weight loss for many years by continuing to eat our respective diets, and both of us have optimal blood pressure, blood glucose levels, and cholesterol panels. Whose advice should you follow? 

The better question is, whose advice do you want to follow? Liking the idea of a diet is a good indicator that you’ll at least be able to start it. The next best question is, are you getting the results you wanted, whether it be improved biomarkers, better body composition, or weight loss? The third question is, can you eat this way 90 percent of the time for a long time? 

These are the questions that should inform your quest for the optimal diet. People succeed in improving their physical and mental health, testable biomarkers, and body composition using all kinds of different nutrition plans. I prefer something close to the keto diet, which can be adapted for omnivores, vegetarians, and vegans, but if you dig into the research conducted by the National Weight Control Registry, which surveys Americans who have lost weight and sustained that weight loss, you’ll find the keys to success are exercise, intentional and disciplined food choices, and keeping a close eye on their weight. In other words, what food types you eat matters less than how much you eat, how much you exercise, and how disciplined you are about eating and exercising. 

Processed foods are not inherently bad, but they do present a tradeoff.  

The rise of “processed” food that tastes good is both a massive human accomplishment and a double-edged sword. Processed foods, which are basically any food item that has been rendered nonperishable or includes multiple ingredients at the time of purchase, have made life easier by speeding up and simplifying food preparation. “Fortified” processed foods, meanwhile, have made it possible for the poorest people in the developed world to both consume adequate calories each day and get many of the micronutrients previously found only in a balanced diet of perishable meats, fruits, and vegetables.  

However, the proliferation of affordable, nonperishable food has played a major role in the rise of obesity and obesity-related diseases; more so, probably, than any other labor-saving technological development of the last century.

This does not mean processed food is bad, or that it should be banned or taxed out of reach, only that consuming processed foods is a tradeoff. These foods often taste fantastic, yet excessive consumption of processed foods can easily erase whatever benefits they provide through micronutrient fortification and time saved.

Expert consensus is hard to come by and overrated.

That the panelists published by the Annals are now under attack by their peers in medicine is just the latest example of the war over nutrition advice. Many academic nutrition researchers believe their work can save entire populations and are frustrated that they have to compete in a marketplace of ideas that does not elevate their findings over those of their peers, the advice of lay diet experts, and the marketing done by food companies. That the federal government has done such a hamfisted job of recommending the “right” advice and is slow to correct recommendations when consensus changes, is all the more infuriating. 

What’s more, popular media reporting on nutrition is often sloppy, sensationalized, and self-contradicting. Just look at the way the Annals recommendation was covered by The Washington Post: The researchers used the terms “weak recommendation” and “low-certainty” while the Post headlined its piece: “A study says full speed ahead on processed and red meat consumption. Nutrition scientists say not so fast.” The study did not say “full speed ahead” and its critics did not say “not so fast.” Debates in nutrition science are covered this way every single day in America’s most respected media outlets. 

The noise around nutrition science should not distract us from the fact that Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and other ailments with a lifestyle correlation are, in fact, a major health care expenditure in the U.S. and around the world; and that many humans in the industrialized world who should eat better both can afford to and would likely succeed with the right combination of external motivation and education. 

This is why nutrition researchers are constantly at each other’s throats. Each faction wants to have the final say, and for their peers and government to rally behind them. But it is futile to expect a single global nutrition paradigm to exist across varying economies, climates, and cultures, especially in the age of democratized media. 

You’re going to die regardless of what or how much you eat, but, on average, junk habits will kill you faster and decrease your quality of life. 

While there is no actual consensus on the optimal ratio of the three macronutrients (fat, carbohydrates, proteins), or on how much (if any) animal protein a person should consume each day, there is an actual, honest-to-God consensus against smoking cigarettes, drinking excessive alcohol, not sleeping enough, and consuming a diet made up mostly of processed foods. If you are the kind of person who desires certainty, nutritionists of every persuasion are certain about the above, if nothing else. 

And if you are the kind of person who feels liberated by the possibility that any number of nutritional paradigms can restore your health and improve your quality of life, there is no better time to be alive than today and no better marketplace of ideas than the one we have now. 

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“It’s Time To Start Hedging Election Risk”: This Is How One Bank Is Doing It

“It’s Time To Start Hedging Election Risk”: This Is How One Bank Is Doing It

According to BofA’s derivatives strategists, if 90 years of history of US elections is to be believed, there is scant evidence that 2020 should be more volatile than 2019, as the S&P tends to be similarly volatile in election years as in the year prior. In fact, excluding 2008 when the spike in volatility had little to do with the election cycle, volatility tends to be slightly lower during election years.  And yet, in light of last week’s political developments, 2020 could well be an exception to the rule.

As shown in the right-hand chart above, the recent increase in President Trump’s impeachment odds coincided with the simultaneous rise and fall of Senator Warren and former Vice President Biden in the market-implied probabilities for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination. With Biden widely regarded as a more moderate liberal/market-friendly candidate than Warren, his potential exclusion from the Presidential race could make 2020 one of the most polarized election years in modern history should Warren and Trump emerge as the two front-runners, according to BofA.

As such, the bank warns that “investors can’t ignore election risk any longer.”

While the investment implications of such a polarized scenario are manifold, the most straightforward of which is higher volatility, the uniqueness of this scenario also implies there is not a readily available trading playbook investors can rely upon. Below, BofA explore some of its preferred investment ideas to trade 2020 election risk.

But first things first: How much election-related risk is priced in?

Before jumping to the bank’s election trading playbook, it is key to first understand how much election risk is already priced into markets. Anecdotally, the bank’s strategists note that they are starting to see interest from clients in hedging both the election and its run-up, with a particular focus on the early rounds of the Democratic Party’s primaries.

Iowa and New Hampshire will be the first states to vote, on February 3rd and 11th, followed by Nevada (22-Feb), South Carolina (29-Feb), and finally Super Tuesday (3-Mar, when 14 states will cast their ballots). Historically strong predictors of the eventual outcome, these early caucuses and primaries may cause the strongest market reaction if there remains significant uncertainty about who will win the Democratic nomination. Hence, any evidence of equity protection buying will be most clearly observed in Feb-Mar (S&P) option expiries. Purely from a political perspective, the risks to potentially higher vol could include the resurgence of a more moderate candidate like Biden or dominant polling numbers by Trump against the leading Democratic candidates.

The logical first place to check for election-related risks is the VIX futures market. To match the timing of Warren’s recent move higher in the polls (chart below, left), BofA compared the level and shape of the VIX futures curve on 12-Sep and 30-Sep. While the entire curve shifted higher in these last 2.5 weeks, there is so far no evidence of additional premium in Jan or Feb futures (which capture S&P implied vol in Feb & Mar, peak primaries season – chart below, left). The chart below, right confirms this numerically: the cost of a “futures condor” which sells the Dec-19 and Mar-20 futures and buys Jan-20 and Feb-20 has not increased with Warren’s odds. Selling the Jan-20 and Mar-20 futures to buy 2x Feb-20 futures has not gotten more expensive either.

Yet if equity markets are not yet concerned about the Democratic primaries, is this also true of the actual election? As BofA responds, unlike VIX futures (which are only listed through Jun-20 today), “S&P-based measures of equity vol allow us to look beyond the primaries to the election on November 3rd. We find that an election risk premium has emerged in the last 3 months, evident by the kink in the Dec-20 point on the S&P variance swap term structure (chart below, left).” The chart on the right plots the hypothetical cost of selling Sep-20 and Mar-21 vs. buying 2x Dec-20 S&P variance to help extract an election premium. While the size of the dislocation varies over time, we appear to have entered a new regime in which owning Dec-20 S&P vol requires a larger premium compared to owning Sep-20 and Mar-21.

Hedging Liz

Getting to the big point, should S&P 500 options markets grow more concerned about the implications of a strong Elizabeth Warren showing in the Feb/Mar-20 caucuses and primaries, strategies that sell SPX straddles expiring before the “catalyst” to fund same-strike straddles expiring afterwards stand to profit. This was the case heading into Brexit, the 2016 US presidential election, and the 2017 French elections, when such long-short straddle pairs benefited from an expansion in “event risk premium”. For example, the first chart below shows the hypothetical P&L of a short SPX 4-Nov-16 2100 straddle vs. a long SPX 11-Nov-16 2100 straddle (the US election was on 8-Nov), which achieved a gross payout ratio of ~4.5-to-1. BofA would look to deploy similar strategies once S&P weekly options spanning the caucuses/primaries become listed. Owning the VIX futures fly/condor shown in the next chart below is an alternative way to benefit from a potential rise in primaries event risk premium with limited risk, though likely with less asymmetry as the VIX futures curve tends to dislocate less than the term structure of S&P weekly options in our experience.

Focus on the casualties

According to BofA, financials and health care companies will likely be the biggest “president Warren” casualties. While Warren is broadly regarded as being a less market friendly candidate than President Trump has been, Financials and Health Care are perceived to be the two sectors that stand to lose the most if Warren were to be elected, at least based on her track record and rhetoric. In particular, Financials are likely to weaken on the risk of an increase in regulation (“The real cause of the crash was not some inevitable cycle; this crash was the direct consequence of years of deliberate deregulation…”, Apr 2014 – Elizabeth Warren). Arguably, Financials would also be hurt by falling yields if markets were spooked and a textbook flight-to-safety type of sell-off played out.

The Health Care sector is also at risk given Warren’s push for Medicare-for-All (“I spent a big chunk of my life studying why families go broke. One of the number-one reasons is the cost of health care, medical bills. [..] Medicare for all solves that problem”, Jun 2019 – Elizabeth Warren).

In terms of what is priced-in for the Democratic primaries, it is clear at the sector level that Health Care and Financials are alert to the risks, with for instance Mar-20 expiry vol showing little-to-no change since August month-end vs. a general decrease in all other expiries’ vols (see below charts). Indeed, the Mar-20 minus Jan-20 ATMf implied vol spread has been on a firm uptrend over the past month for both Financials (XLF) and Health Care (XLV).

That said, since the volatility of both sectors is historically elevated, rather than recommending buying outright puts, BofA prefers financing downside protection by selling SPY puts. Here, relative value opportunities are particularly attractive between XLF and SPY, given the implied vol spread is depressed both historically and vs. trailing realized vol (the 3m realized vol ratio of XLF vs. SPY is 1.22 vs. the 6m ATM implied vol ratio of 1.13).

As an example, buying $0.85 notional of the XLF Mar-20 put (ref. 28.02, 47d) and selling $1 notional of the SPY Mar-20 put (ref. 296.98, 45d) is roughly zero cost upfront. The theoretical expiry P&L shows a highly asymmetric and favorable historical risk reward profile. For instance, the P&L was positive one-quarter of the time since Jun 09, and negative only 3% of the time. In addition, positive returns were on average 4.1%, 3.6x as large as negative returns. Importantly, the max gain of 11.9% was 4x as large as the max loss (-2.9%). Finally, while the P&L suffered some losses at the start of the 2011 and 2015 sell-offs, the trade ultimately delivered positive returns that outstripped the initial losses.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 10/01/2019 – 14:05

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On Coins And Canals

On Coins And Canals

Authored Omid Malekan via Medium.com,

A lot has changed since I first started writing that stablecions would become a big deal and disrupt the booming payments and FinTech industries. On the crypto side, blockbuster projects like JPM Coin, the Utility Settlement Coin and Libra were announced. Dai proved resilient despite an ugly collateral winter and public coins like Tether grew even larger. Regulators and central bankers went from not knowing to what they are to obsessing over them.

 

And yet, on the FinTech side, nothing has changed. Judging by the capital markets, investors now believe in siloed payment providers who own proprietary pipes more than ever. Visa has overtaken J.P. Morgan to become the world’s biggest financial company. PayPal’s stock is 20% higher from when I first wrote about its inevitable demise. Stripe’s valuation has jumped by 50% in less than a year.

Ironically, the ascent of the (soon to be) old guard happened despite all three companies giving stablecoins the ultimate stamp of approval by joining the Libra Association. Here is David Marcus going on about how Libra will change the world by drastically expanding access and lowering fees, and there are three of the world’s biggest payment companies — with business models based on limited access and higher fees — nodding along.

Say what?

I like history, and analogies, and find an appropriate one in the transportation industry of the early 19th century. Moving money is a lot like moving goods. If either money or a physical item needs to get from point A to point B, and you happen to control the only route, then you get to charge a toll. If an unrelated secular trend leads to a lot more goods or payments needing to traverse that route, then you make a lot of money.

Today, the good is electronic payments, and the routes are cards rails and e-money schemes. As commerce grows increasingly digital, global and platform based, the few available pipes to send payments grow increasingly profitable. In the 1800s the good was industrial and agricultural supply, and the routes were rivers and lakes. As the world grew increasingly industrial and trade-oriented, the few available routes out of North America grew increasingly important. Contemporary companies like Stripe and PayPal are changing the payment landscape by building important bridges between legacy payment pathways. Back then, the same thing was accomplished by building canals.

If you aren’t familiar with the canal boom of the first industrial revolution you are missing out. So much of the map, economic layout, population distribution and culture of America can be attributed to a single piece of infrastructure: the Erie Canal. It connected two major shipping corridors in the form of the Great Lakes and the Atlantic Ocean via the Hudson River and literally redrew the map of North America. The Midwestern farm belt, Northeastern Industrial Belt and New York City all ascended because of it. And of course, it was highly profitable. So much so that its tolls paid for the massive cost of construction within 3 years, a repayment time unheard of in the modern era.

Canals are slow, expensive to build and difficult to maintain. But because they were the only game in town in the early industrial era, they were economically important. There was a time when the fastest way to ship goods across Pennsylvania was up to the Great Lakes and down through New York City. The success of the Erie as an economic gateway inspired many other canals to be built at great expense. They all did great, and made a ton of money, until the railroads did them in.

I like this analogy because it shows how in the absence of a proper network that connects two points directly, even the most cumbersome, indirect and expensive transportation options could do extremely well. That’s the FinTech payment boom of 2019 for you. What makes companies like Stripe so successful is that they can abstract away all of the inefficiencies and messy underbelly of the siloed payment industry and give merchants and users a payment experience that looks seamless. This is a valuable contribution today, but not nearly as good as a grid that allows instant point to point transfers of money. That’s the stablecoin vision of tomorrow.

We can stretch this analogy as far as we like. Just as the biggest payment providers of today have joined Libra because they believe it only accentuates their business model, canal operators initially embraced railroads as a means of bringing more goods to their shores. Both stablecoins and railroads are in some ways limited in capacity compared to the infrastructure they hope to replace, but the efficiencies of shipping (or paying) point to point are worth the trade-off.

Some canals survived deep into the railroad boom and were even expanded as a result, which means some of today’s payment gateways, particularly the wholesale ones that move huge sums of money, will be with us well into the stablecoin boom, and possibly benefit from it.

We are already seeing this with Libra. In order for the overall mission to be successfully, the project is going to need a lot of help from the legacy financial system, including certain payment gateways.

I expect the endgame for most of today’s payment players to be the same as those of 18th century canals, now more than ever. A network, be it a physical one for moving goods or a digital one for moving value, wants to be built. The efficiencies and growth economics are too tempting to ignore. The more money the Visas, PayPals and Stripes of the world make operating their canals, the more everyone else will be willing to invest in a network that replaces them — despite challenges like this.

Libra is just the beginning. Whether it succeeds, or even launches, is a moot point. The idea of a decentralized payment network that only charges minimal fees to provide security (as opposed to seeking rent to reward shareholders) has now been validated, and there’s no turning back. If the statement “your profit margins are my opportunity” is to be believed, then there is no greater opportunity in all financial services than a secure global blockchain-based payment network.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 10/01/2019 – 13:45

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Global M&A Plunges To 3-Year Low Amid Recession Threat 

Global M&A Plunges To 3-Year Low Amid Recession Threat 

Last week we explained how the global IPO market was unraveling. Then this morning, we outlined how the devastating impact of WeWork’s catastrophic failed IPO had damaged capital market sentiment. It’s likely that 2019 will go down in history as the worst year for IPOs, not just in the US, but also globally. 

As the global IPO bubble implodes, there’s a new report from Reuters that warns how global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are also plunging, a sign that economic uncertainty surrounding the trade war has frightened capital markets.  

As corporate sentiment deteriorates around the world, many believe a global trade recession could arrive as early as 2020, which has sparked a massive push into money markets, precious metals, and government bonds in the last six to eight months. 

With the expectation of economic doom ahead, management teams of multinationals are quicky pulling M&A deals. This was evident in 3Q19 figures, where global M&A plunged 16% YoY, one of the lowest quarterly volume prints since 2016. 

M&A volumes have dissipated because there are concerns that risks may be rising in several spots, in markets and elsewhere,” said Michael Carr, global co-head of M&A at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

A lot of the uncertainty was seen in the US, M&A volume collapsed by 40% YoY in 3Q19, to $246 billion, the lowest quarterly level since 2014.

M&A volume in Asia was weakening as well, down 20% YoY to $160 billion, the lowest level since 2017.

Robin Rankin, global co-head of M&A at Credit Suisse Group AG, told Reuters that valuation concerns of companies have slowed down M&A transactions.  

“Companies looking at deals have become more risk-averse, and this is likely to bring M&A volumes down for the year. But we expect M&A activity to be strong going into next year,” said Rankin. 

Deal making in Europe was an exception. M&A volume across the Eurozone jumped 45% YoY in 3Q19.

“In Europe we have seen a real mix of different kind of deals which were spread across various sectors and geographies,” said Eamon Brabazon, co-head of EMEA M&A at Bank of America Corp .

“This is a sign of a healthy market because we’re not relying only on a particular strand. There’s no obvious reason to believe the M&A market will turn south in the foreseeable future,” he added.

One of the largest M&A deals that went bust in the quarter was Marlboro maker Philip Morris International Inc’s bid to merge with Altria Group Inc, would have created a market value of $200 billion. The deal was scrapped when government officials opened investigations into Altria’s Juul e-cigarette, for the possibility of triggering a dozen or so vaping-related deaths. 

Waning capital market sentiment because of trade wars and recession threats could lead to more management teams pulling deals. It certainly seems that the windows for IPOs and M&As are closing, as economic turmoil could flare up in 2020. 

A slowdown in M&A deals is an ominous sign that Wall Street banks will see declining revenues in the quarters ahead


Tyler Durden

Tue, 10/01/2019 – 13:30

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Pelosi’s Impeachment Trap

Pelosi’s Impeachment Trap

Authored by Eric Posner via Project Syndicate,

America’s Democrats have made a serious mistake by launching impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. They are replaying the Republican impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998, a futile exercise that damaged Republicans, enhanced Clinton’s power, and caused institutional damage as well.

The common factor of the two impeachments is that it was clear from the start that the US Senate would never convict, which requires a two-thirds majority. The 45 Senate Democrats were not happy that Clinton perjured himself before a grand jury, obstructed justice, and conducted an extramarital sexual affair with a White House intern, Monica Lewinsky. But they did not believe that this behavior was grounds for removal from office. The behavior was not sufficiently egregious to overcome their political loyalty to a president who remained popular with voters.

Republicans leading the impeachment knew that few if any Senate Democrats would vote to convict (in fact, none did). But Republicans hoped to embarrass the Democrats and damage Clinton, believing that they would pick up some seats in the November 1998 election by launching impeachment proceedings before then. They were wrong. Clinton’s popularity rose after the impeachment proceedings ended. Most Americans believed that impeachment was a mistake.

Many people worried that the Clinton impeachment would damage the presidency, but its main impact on presidential power was the opposite. Republicans eventually agreed with Democrats that responsibility for the debacle lay with Kenneth Starr, the independent counsel whose investigations of Clinton’s real-estate dealings years earlier eventually led him to Lewinsky. The two parties allowed the independent counsel statute to lapse, freeing the presidency from a powerful form of oversight, much to Trump’s benefit a generation later.

Today, Senate Republicans may well be privately concerned about Trump’s behavior. But there is no indication that even one would vote in favor of removal. While Trump is nowhere near as popular as Clinton was, he retains the loyalty of his base, who dominate the Republican primaries, and, unlike Clinton, he enjoys majority support in the Senate. Indeed, the extraordinary enthusiasm of Trump’s supporters – their indifference to his many other scandals – almost guarantees that any additional information that might materialize during the impeachment hearings will not influence Republican senators.

Some supporters of impeachment argue that the gravity of the accusations against Trump – that he enlisted a foreign country to harass a political opponent – will ensure his conviction. But we have been through this before. Democrats who abhor sexual harassment and perjury supported Clinton because they saw the alternative as worse. Republicans will make the same calculation. Perhaps the story would be different if Trump had persuaded the Ukrainians to arrest Joe Biden while sightseeing in Kyiv. The president’s behavior, as odious as it is, is a far cry from Richard Nixon’s involvement in espionage against the Democratic Party – the single historical example of impeachment proceedings leading to the removal (in Nixon’s case, resignation) of the president.

Others argue that even if Trump is not removed, impeachment in the House – which the Democratic majority virtually guarantees – will send a strong signal that the president’s behavior violates American values. But impeachment has its own narrative logic: once the Democrats initiate it, they either win or lose. If they lose, they will be seen as losers who wasted public resources for a futile goal.

Still others believe that impeachment hearings will reveal that Trump has committed crimes or betrayed the country in as yet undisclosed ways, or that the hearings will enable Democrats to convey the seriousness of all the president’s wrongdoing in a way that will galvanize the public. But the leaky Trump administration has kept few secrets so far, and much of his behavior has been normalized, at least for his Republican supporters. Impeachment proceedings, unlike judicial proceedings, are a cumbersome mechanism for developing evidence. Nothing new was learned about Clinton after the Starr Report was issued, and nothing new will be learned about Trump.

Indeed, Trump’s character flaws and misbehavior are already so well known that the impeachment proceedings will most likely blow back and cause more harm to Democratic politicians than Republicans. Again, the Clinton impeachment offers lessons. Everyone knew, or suspected, that Clinton was a womanizer (or what today might be called a sexual predator) and a serial liar. People were not quite as aware that Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich had also conducted an extramarital affair, as did his successor, Bob Livingston. Both resigned; Clinton remained in office. Trump’s greatest skill is in turning his prosecutors into the accused. Expect this to happen again, with Trump using his Twitter account to shine a spotlight on whichever Democrats have the greatest political vulnerabilities.

None of this is rocket science.

So, why would a canny politician like Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi yield to other members’ pressure for impeachment (though she is clearly temporizing – for example, by refusing to hold a vote in the House to authorize the impeachment proceedings)? The answer stems from the basic logic of Congress in a polarized era.

Congress is a collective body. Its members are beholden to voters in specific districts or states rather than the country as a whole. House Democrats from more liberal districts fear that they will be defeated in primaries by more forcefully anti-Trump challengers. The only way to counter such challenges is by supporting impeachment. As more Democrats jump on the bandwagon, more moderate Democrats join in to avoid looking like defenders of Trump’s misconduct.

Mark Twain supposedly joked that “history does not repeat itself but it often rhymes.” But in this case, repetition seems to be the right word. The political logic that trapped the Republicans in 1998 will operate the same way on the Democrats in 2019.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 10/01/2019 – 13:04

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