ARS Smashed As Argentina Crashes

Argentina’s credit and FX markets are crashing for a second day, signaling an implied probability-of-default gauge over 60%, as investors rapidly lose faith that President Macri will fend off his populist foes and win re-election this year.

In comments, Macri admitted that the market volatility is stemming from the political uncertainty but said he believes it’s wrong to expect Argentines will elect his political opponents.

“The world isn’t sure whether Argentines want to go back, and that makes the world very concerned — sovereign risk goes up, they take more defensive positions,” Macri said in a radio interview.

“I think they’re wrong, they’re wrong. We Argentines aren’t going back” to the past.

But that did not reassure investors who have dumped the peso (to a record low against the dollar)…

And credit risk has exploded…

The weakness is exacerbating the situation as rising borrowing costs and a weakening peso translate into higher inflation expectations, eroding support for Macri, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note late Wednesday. That “negative feedback loop,” added to worse-than expected inflation, are the main drivers behind Argentina’s dire situation, they added.

“At the current juncture the market seems to be looking for a circuit breaker to that negative feedback loop,” the analysts said.

Bloomberg notes that while the peso has depreciated significantly throughout the year, the level it may reach in case of a peronist’s win in the October election is completely clouded. The reason: during Kirchner’s term, Argentina didn’t even have a floating currency market, so any attempts to discount a CFK future appear doomed. Still that is not preventing traders from trying: “44/USD doesn’t have a Kirchner victory priced in. We have a view that 48 would be a signal for a Kirchner win,” said Brendan McKenna, a strategist at Wells Fargo. Market’s base case scenario is still a Macri’s victory even though his odds are deteriorating recently.

Alberto Ramos, head of Latin America research at Goldman Sachs, has different view. For him, investors are “already pricing in less than 50% odds for Macri” as it clearly seems the election is slipping away from President’s hands due to negative activity, according to Bloomberg.

Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, takes the other side of the trade arguing that the “base case scenario is policy continuity ahead of October 27 elections”, even though lack of clarity with short-term scenario led him to recommend staying neutral in Argentina.

To be sure, CFK is doing all she can to reclaim the presidency, and this week released an autobiographical book called “Sincerely,” further raising her profile ahead of the vote.

As Daniel Lacalle recently noted, the Argentine economy is more fragile and vulnerable than similar ones. However, Argentina is also one of the countries with the highest economic potential. There are five essential factors to understand the weakness of the economy:

  1. The Peso. Despite the dovish policies of the Federal Reserve and the change of course in the process of normalization, the Peso is, again, the worst performing currency against the dollar in 2019. The dollar index has not moved much against its basket of currencies, therefore, it is the disastrous monetary policy that made the Peso plummet. A weak currency is a danger to the stability of the country and the successive governments only seem to want to patch up the mistaken monetary policy of the Central Bank. A weak Peso does not make the Argentine economy more competitive or export more, as reality shows. If the country does not address in a serious and determined way the error of maintaining a currency in a constant process of destruction of its purchasing power, it will simply move from crisis to crisis again.

  2. Monetary policy is also seriously inflationary. Not by mistake, but by design. Governments prefer to see high inflation and blame an inexistent external enemy than to stop financing the bloated public spending with newly printed currency. The loss of purchasing power of the currency is added to an inflation rate that should not correspond to a country with the potential and human capital of Argentina. Argentina has been, for many years, a country with the potential of a developed economy and a monetary policy of a third-world country. It has followed the MMT recommendations for years. Many claim that dollarization would be worse because it was already attempted and led to a crisis, except that this argument is false. Argentina did not dollarize, it carried out an exchange rate subterfuge by pegging the Peso to the US Dollar with a completely inflated exchange rate that led to the accumulation of imbalances. Argentina did not have dollars, it had pesos in disguise. Dollarization is what Ecuador did, abandoning the sucre , which allowed the country to avoid a Venezuelan-style hyperinflation.

  3. Very high taxes. Argentina’s tax wedge remains the highest in the region and one of the highest for companies in the world,. This constant expropriation of wealth via currency devaluation, inflation and taxes work as a huge barrier to international investment, growth and job creation. In Argentina, one always hears that “tax revenues are low” and that therefore taxes cannot be cut.  However, raising them puts a lid on job creation, productive investment and the attraction of capital, and revenues are even lower.

  4. High government expenditure. Denying the depressive effect of extractive political spending, within a public expenditure that already reaches more than 45% of GDP, is a problem for a country with high potential. It not only is the highest public expenditure in the region but the most inefficient according to the Inter-American Development Bank. The inefficiency of public spending in Argentina reaches 7.2% of GDP.

  5. The loopholes of protectionism. According to the global competitiveness index of the World Economic Forum, Argentina is ranked 92 out of 137 countries. The deterioration trend generated between 2012 and 2015 has been reduced for three years, but the challenges are important. One of them is to eliminate the loopholes of anti-trade and protectionist measures imposed from the short-sighted perception that protectionism would replace imports and strengthen the economy while printing money would spur growth. There are still significant recesses of that period that act as a disincentive to growth and, above all, as a warning to global investors who prefer to avoid long-term and capital intensive investment in Argentina.

It is true that some measures have been taken to reverse these elements of fragility, but reforms must be more courageous to prevent the economy from falling further in 2019 and 2020.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2GyENsd Tyler Durden

“One Of The Top Debacles I’ve Ever Seen”: Analysts Throw Up On Tesla’s “Twilight Zone” Report

Analyst reactions to yesterday’s Tesla earnings are starting to trickle in and the initial reaction are, well, speechless.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives led the charge, calling Tesla’s quarter “one of top debacles” he had ever seen in 20 years of covering tech stocks on the Street. He slashed his price target to $275 from $365 and changed his rating from a buy to hold. 

“Musk & Co. in an episode out of the ‘The Twilight Zone’ act as if demand and profitability will magically return to the Tesla story,” Ives said in a note to clients. “At this point the writing is on the wall that Tesla will likely have to raise over $3 billion of capital in the near term to sustain its capex and debt needs given its current profitability path, which is another black cloud over the name with an inexperienced CFO now at the helm,” he continued.  

Having had enough of this shitshow, Ives refused to hold back: “We continue to feel robotaxis, insurance products, and other endeavors are distractions from the growing demand woes that are not being addressed which is a critical worry of ours at this juncture.”

Goldman Sachs also downgraded Tesla, slashing their price target to $200 (it already had the company at a Sell) and saying the “…results miss[ed] despite an already anticipated weak quarter.” David Tamberrino from Goldman mirrored some of our concerns about the company’s questionable guidance, especially as it related to capex spend:

We believe the implied quarterly rate for 2H19 of 101k to 121k is aggressive; as such, our full year volume estimates still fall short of the low-end of the company’s guidance range. Ultimately, we believe the company’s ‘if we build it, they will come’ mantra likely requires incremental incentives (or some form of this) in order to entice incremental sales – which also will weigh on gross margins. Lastly, from a FCF perspective, with the anticipated ramp in capex, we do expect to see quarterly FCF burns later this year – which could make raising capital prudent ahead of this. We maintain our Sell rating and our 12-month price target declines to $200 (from $210).

We had questioned the company’s capex numbers in our writeup post-earnings yesterday:

And here some critical math (or maybe meth): after reporting just $280MM in CapEx, far below the $510MM expected, Tesla is now projecting to burn on average about $650MM in CapEx in the remaining 3 quarters, which would soak up virtually all of the remaining $2.2 billion in unrestricted cash (which plunged from $3.7 billion as of Dec. 31).

GS also took exception with customer deposits. 

Customer deposits were down again, coming in at a $768mn balance at quarter end (down from $793mn at 4Q18 end). This comes as we have continued to see customer deposits trend down as the company has said they have been fulfilling Model 3 orders. However, we ultimately think the continued decline may indicate that the sustainable demand for TSLA products may not be as high as some investors initially anticipated. Further, with the Model Y now taking deposits, but the total amount down again sequentially we think this may be the harbinger of more demand softness to come for TSLA.

Among other notes, the investment bank also offered takes on why an uptick in orders may be difficult, and why a capital raise should be considered – mirroring sentiment from almost every analyst on the call yesterday. 

Despite the stock’s reaction, Tesla reported nothing less than a disastrous quarter yesterday after market. Earnings were close to the worst on record with the company reporting a loss of $2.90 in the quarter, more than double the estimated $1.30 share, on dismal revenue of just $4.54 billion, also far worse than the $4.84 billion expected. The EPS, charted, was clearly a disaster.

SLA’s cash declined by what may be a record $1.6 billion, with free cash flow (cash from operations less capex), coming it at a whopping $920 million, meaning that TSLA burned $10 million in cash every day.

What is curious is that Tesla’s cash burn would actually have been far worse because while the company reported Q1 capital expenditure of $279.9 million, the estimate was for nearly double that or $508.2 million, suggesting the company once again mothballed various expansion projects to mitigate the cash burn.

We also summarized the highlights from the company’s surreal conference call here, detailing the company’s new plans to…  sell insurance, among other things.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2IJ5QET Tyler Durden

How to buy a gorgeous property in Europe for 50% off

When Hugh Hefner finally sold one of the most famous homes in the world back in 2016– the Playboy Mansion– the market was a bit slow. And Hefner had to settle for about half of his original $200 million asking price.

But in exchange, the then-90-year-old got a sweet deal: He didn’t have to move out. The buyer would only take possession of the property once Hefner passed away.

A similar deal took place between Hollywood socialite Zsa Zsa Gabor and the buyer of her $11 million Bel-Air estate. For three years after the sale, until her death at age 99, Gabor remained in her 28-room, French Regency-style mansion, which had been her home since 1973.

Buying a property and allowing its previous owner to live there until his or her passing is not just another quirky Hollywood arrangement. Although rare in the US, it has a long legal tradition in Europe.

And if you find the right property, at the right price, you could nab an Italian Villa for a HUGE discount, even more than 50% off.

Before I explain this legal construct, let’s first establish why it makes sense to consider diversifying part of your savings into foreign real estate.

As I wrote in a recent Notes article, the US government just released its annual fiscal bill of health. Conclusion? Uncle Sam’s net worth is now NEGATIVE $75 TRILLION… almost exactly the size of the global economy as a whole.

To say this is disastrous is a colossal understatement. There will be a reckoning. I don’t know when it will occur, but there’s not a single nation in the recorded history of the planet that has proved immune to the basic financial laws of the universe. Not one.

Diversifying a portion of your savings makes sense when you realize what might be coming down the pipeline. At worst, it will help hedge against the risk. At best, it might actually save your assets.

What kind of diversification makes the most sense to look into? I’d say those that are portable, like gold and silver… and those that are international, like foreign real estate.

And if you can get that foreign real estate for a song, then of course, that’s even more attractive.

That’s where this legal structure comes in. It allows you to buy Italian, French, and Spanish property (to name a few) for anywhere from a 30-to-60-percent discount.

The legal concept is called “Bare Ownership”, and it has been used for centuries in Europe.

The framework is simple: under Bare Ownership, an owner sells his/her property rights to a buyer, and the two parties each become part owners. Once the original owner passes, the rest of the title is conveyed to the buyer.

You could say it’s called “bare” ownership because the buyer “barely” owns the property upon the initial sale: the seller is the one who is legally entitled to live there. But again, once the seller passes away, bare ownership becomes full ownership, and the buyer receives clean title and no transition or estate issues.

The arrangement provides both parties with benefits: an older person with property can receive a much-needed cash infusion without having to deal with the immense stress and grief of moving and finding a new place to live.

And a patient buyer is able to eventually acquire a nice property at well-below market value. If you pick the right real estate, it might even increase in value between the time you buy it and the time you take possession.

This type of sale is becoming more and more common between foreigners and Europe’s elderly: fewer than ten percent of retirees in Spain and Italy, for example, have private retirement savings. So upwards of 90% are counting on the government to take care of them.

That’s a problem. These governments are flat broke and rapidly running out of cash. Italy’s banking system is on a knife’s edge and in substantial need of a bailout. So these retirees really need cash.

Rather than selling, however, and having to find somewhere else to live, many pensioners are starting to turn to Bare Ownership.

Just like Hugh Hefner.

And for the buyer, Bare Ownership can be a solid structure to consider if you’re looking to internationally diversify your portfolio via a medium-term investment. You might sell it someday at a higher value. In the meantime, your money is in a hard asset, not fiat currency.

And just like the Playboy Mansion’s buyer, you could end up with a great property… for half the price. If you’re working on your Plan B, then Bare Ownership is something to consider.

If you are already a member of our flagship international diversification service, Sovereign Man: Confidential, you can read our full report for more details, legal contacts, and information.

Click here to learn more about Sovereign Man: Confidential and become a member for just $995.

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from Sovereign Man http://bit.ly/2Lh8XWP
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‘Some People Might Say That Ricky Fell Through a Crack in the System. This Is Not a Crack. This Is the System.’

Before being locked up on murder charges 23 years ago, Ricky Kidd says he was “naive” about how the criminal justice system worked.

“I didn’t know that innocent people go to prison,” Kidd, now 44, says by phone from the Crossroads Correctional Center in Cameron, Missouri. He told anyone who would listen, starting with the detectives who first took him into custody, that he didn’t do it. “I needed,” he says “to be believed.”

In May 1996, Kidd was charged in the double murder of George Bryant and Oscar Bridges in Kansas City, Missouri. The evidence against him was weak, his alibi was solid, and the case in his favor has only grown stronger since Kidd and his co-defendant, Marcus Merrill, were convicted of the murders in March 1997 and sentenced to life without parole. Kidd nevertheless remains locked up.

There’s no simple explanation for why he’s still in prison. A combination of factors, including an inadequate public defense system, alleged prosecutorial misconduct, and a court system where innocence isn’t always enough, has contributed to what Kidd describes as a “horrible nightmare.”

This week, Kidd has a hearing for habeas corpus relief under Rule 91, a state law that allows convicted inmates to allege unlawful imprisonment even if their prior appeals have been unsuccessful.

After more than two decades of legal battles, this is Kidd’s “best last bite at the apple,” says Sean O’Brien, a law professor at the University of Missouri–Kansas City. He has represented Kidd since 2006. Today he is co-counsel along with the Midwest Innocence Project (MIP), a nonprofit that works to exonerate wrongfully convicted inmates.

“While I may fall in the cracks of legal terms or certain legal impediments, my facts will hold up,” Kidd says. “I’m certain of that.”

***

On February 6, 1996, Alvin Brooks, a former Kansas City cop who was then running a nonprofit called AdHoc Group Against Crime, got a call from a man who said he’d witnessed a shooting. The caller claimed he’d seen three men drive off afterward, Brooks recalls. He told the man to send in a tip to police.

At 11:50 a.m., police were dispatched to the scene. They found Bryant, who was known around the neighborhood as a drug dealer, lying outside his home in a pool of blood. Bridges’ body was discovered in the basement.

Kidd, who was 21 at the time of the murders, had a pretty good alibi. He said he was awakened early that morning by his sister, Nikki, who had stayed with him the previous night and wanted to drive his 1993 Toyota Corolla to work.

By mid-morning, Kidd said he and his stepfather had successfully started his other car, an unreliable white 1981 Oldsmobile Delta 88. Taking Nikki’s young son D.J. with them, Kidd and then-girlfriend Monica Gray drove the Delta to Nikki’s work, where Kidd said he retrieved his Corolla keys.

After picking up the keys at around 11:30 a.m. or noon, Kidd said they took the Delta home. Then Kidd, his girlfriend, and his nephew drove together in the Corolla to the Jackson County Sheriff’s Office at Lake Jacomo so Kidd could get a gun permit for a .357 revolver he had his eye on. The sheriff’s office was a roughly 30-minute drive from Kidd’s residence, says Gray.

Kidd said he filled out an application but was told he’d have to wait a few days for a background check. After stopping to see his ex-girlfriend Kelley Magill and daughter Jasmine, Kidd said he took Gray to her aunt’s home, picked his sister Nikki up from work, and drove to his grandmother’s house. That’s where he learned that Bryant had been killed.

That’s quite a few witnesses. But the prosecution argued that sequence of events occurred on a different day than the murders. At trial, Jackson County Sheriff’s Office Sgt. Michael Buffalow said the form Kidd filled out, which is dated February 6 and was processed that day and the next, could have been mailed in or turned in by hand prior to that date.

But a 2007 deposition from Susan Jordan, the Jackson County Sheriff’s deputy who processed the form, revealed that mail-in applications were exceedingly rare, and that applications were nearly always completely processed either the day they were received or the day after.

Kidd’s defense team has taken the straightforward position that since his application was dated February 6 and processed on February 6 and 7, it’s unlikely he turned it in on another date.

The dated application serves as a crucial part of Kidd’s alibi, but it also suggests a more basic, common-sense defense of his innocence. Why would a killer try to legally obtain a firearm within 24 hours of committing murder? As Brooks, the former cop who got that eyewitness call about the shooting points out: “Even the dumbest of criminals probably wouldn’t have done something like that.”

***

So why was Kidd charged with the murder in the first place?

A drug dealer before going to prison, Kidd acknowledges he hasn’t always been entirely truthful. He lied to police about owing Bryant $500 at the time of his death. More important, though, he failed to reveal a crucial conversation with one of the other men implicated in the killing.

While considerable evidence connects Kidd’s co-defendant Merrill to two of his cousins—Gary Goodspeed Sr. (a.k.a. Abu-Rahman Saad Muwwakkil) and his son Gary Goodspeed Jr. (a.k.a. Rahib Muwwakkil)—neither was charged.

Merrill and his cousins resided in Georgia, but all three were in Kansas City at the time of the murders. While he was in town, Goodspeed Sr. rented a white Oldsmobile Cutlass Ciera that matched witnesses’ descriptions of the three suspects’ car.

The three men had similar alibis for February 6. After spending time together at the Adam’s Mark Hotel, they said they went to see Henrietta Bynum, Goodspeed Sr.’s ex-wife and Goodspeed Jr.’s mother, with whom the victim, Bryant, was rumored to have had a romantic relationship.

“They had more of a motive at that moment in their life than Ricky did,” Teresa Anderson, Kidd’s former public defender, says of the Goodspeeds. “Independently of them, I don’t think he had any grudge with anybody.”

Kidd, who was first named in connection to the crime by anonymous tips, is the “odd man out,” his current attorneys claimed in a 2015 petition for writ of habeas corpus.

And at a 2009 federal hearing, Merrill confessed to the murders and furnished crucial additional information to the courts. In his confession, Merrill described how the Goodspeeds met him at a friend’s house the morning of February 6 and drove him to Bryant’s home. Goodspeed Sr. and Merrill were both armed with handguns, the friend, Eugene Williams, testified—Goodspeed Sr. with a .45-caliber and Merrill with a Glock .9 millimeter. Both kinds of shell casings were later found at the crime scene.

Bryant’s 4-year-old daughter Kayla, who was home when her father was killed, told investigators she had seen the perpetrators at the house before. Goodspeed Jr. told police he and Merrill had visited Bryant a few days prior.

“Daddy’s brother shot Daddy,” Kayla told police. She also reported that one of the men tried to comfort her.

Her account makes more sense in context. Goodspeed Jr. was friends with Bryant and shared a physical resemblance to him. Bryant would sometimes refer to Goodspeed Jr. as “little brother,” Merrill testified. He also said he ignored Goodspeed Sr.’s directive to kill Kayla, instead telling her everything would be OK and firing a bullet through the wall.

Goodspeed Sr. shot Bryant and took Bridges, who was remodeling the house, down to the basement, said Merrill. Bryant later got up and ran into Merrill, who shot him again.

Why did Merrill confess so long after the fact? Kidd and Merrill exchanged a series of letters while both were incarcerated, with Kidd trying to convince Merrill to admit his guilt and exonerate Kidd. His efforts were largely unsuccessful until Kidd asked Merrill if the Goodspeeds were doing anything to take care of Merrill’s daughter, perhaps implying that Merrill was protecting them in exchange for nothing.

“You could look at it as a crisis of conscience,” says O’Brien. “Gary Sr. was the one who killed both of these guys, and Marcus is effectively doing Sr.’s time.” Having unsuccessfully appealed his own conviction, Merrill also hopes for a shot at parole if the case is reopened and he testifies against Goodspeed Jr.

Kidd was a one-time roommate and former close friend of Goodspeed Jr. And this was the other key information he initially withheld from police: On February 5, Goodspeed Sr. asked if he wanted to help rob Bryant, Kidd testified in 2009. During their February 7 meeting, Goodspeed Sr. confessed to killing Bryant, Kidd said. He was afraid to volunteer this information, ironically, because he didn’t want to be connected to the crime.

***

The witness who placed Kidd at the crime scene was the person who telephoned Brooks, a man by the name of Richard Harris. Harris told police he was walking home after visiting his neighbor when he saw Bryant run out of the garage, yelling for help.

One of the suspects, who Harris identified as Goodspeed Jr., dropped a garbage bag containing what he assumed was cash and drugs, pursued Bryant, and tackled him. Then another man came out of the garage and shot Bryant with a .45, Harris claimed. While Harris identified the killer as Kidd, in his 2009 confession Merrill said it was actually Goodspeed Sr.

While Harris was the prosecution’s key witness in its case against Kidd, he’s never been able to get his story straight. “He has said virtually everything about everything,” Kidd’s lawyer O’Brien says, wryly.

Harris told police he had started running away by the time Bryant was shot. But at trial, he said he saw the killer “stand over” Bryant and shoot him.

Harris claimed to have been standing in front of Bryant’s house at the time. His now ex-wife, Letha Jones, testified in 2009 that Harris told her he was at his mother’s house, about 100 feet or more away from Bryant’s home. Another neighbor who witnessed the shooting, Phyllis Davis, testified that she could not recall seeing Harris.

In a 2007 deposition and again at the 2009 hearing, Harris said Bryant’s killer had long hair and was wearing a red do-rag. But Kidd was bald around that time.

Harris was also not the casual bystander he initially made himself out as. He later admitted to buying drugs from Bryant on multiple occasions, even though he initially told police they were just neighbors.

Harris may have testified against Kidd because he was scared the Goodspeeds would kill him, according to Brooks. “Since then, he called me,” says Brooks of Harris, and “he said why he did what he did.”

Little else should have implicated Kidd. “There is no physical evidence tying him to the crime scene that I recall,” said Amy McGowan, Jackson County’s lead prosecutor on the case, in a 2017 deposition. McGowan, who declined to be interviewed for this story, said her “personal belief” is that Goodspeed Jr. was one of the men responsible. She suspected Goodspeed Sr. was involved as well, but claimed she didn’t have enough evidence to go after either man.

Brooks thinks the police deserve blame. “They really did a poor job of that case,” he says, pointing to investigators’ failure to build a strong case against the Goodspeeds based on the similarities between their rental and the getaway car. “They didn’t follow up,” he adds.

All of which means the prosecution had three people who implicated Kidd: the unreliable witness Harris; the contradictory testimony of 4-year-old Kayla Bryant; and Merrill, who later recanted his testimony.

***

Lacking the resources for private representation, Kidd’s case was handled by a public defender at a time when Missouri’s public defenders were utterly unable to devote the resources to Kidd’s case that might have led to his exoneration.

A 2012 audit found that Missouri’s public defense caseload grew 70 percent since 1990. The office, however, has only expanded by 58 percent. After the findings were released, auditor Tom Schweich said that public defenders have relied for decades on outdated 1970s standards for appropriate caseloads. This has gradually led to more overworked lawyers with less time to spend on each case.

“Everybody deserves to have the best defense that they can have,” says Anderson, Kidd’s old public defender, who understands this better than anyone.

That right was clearly established for the first time by Clarence Earl Gideon who radically changed the face of the American judicial system with nothing but a pen and prison paper. Gideon was accused of felony breaking and entering, but since he was poor, he was left to defend himself in court. After being convicted, Gideon took his case all the way to the Supreme Court and won. In 1963, the Supreme Court ruled in Gideon v. Wainwright that the Sixth Amendment guarantees every citizen the right to counsel.

While the case expanded civil liberties, the divide between rich defendants and poor defendants remained. While those lacking funds now have access to counsel, many judicial systems, including Missouri’s, struggle to ensure access to adequate counsel.

A serious lack of resources cheats Missouri public defenders out of the chance to provide the best defense. Lawyers in an office on a shoestring budget are expected to go up against well-funded prosecutors, despite dealing with heavy caseloads and a lack of information.

One fed-up director of the public defender’s office even assigned a case to then-Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon (D), who was attorney general at the time of Kidd’s conviction, as an act of protest in 2016.

The American Civil Liberties Union filed a federal class action lawsuit in 2017 claiming that Missouri’s public defender system was a “constitutional crisis.” It is not unheard of for poor defendants to spend months in jail waiting for a trial. Once they’re finally able to see a public defender, their lawyer only has a short amount of time to review their case before entering the courtroom.

“Some people might say that Ricky fell through a crack in the system,” O’Brien says. “This is not a crack. This is the system.”

Anderson and O’Brien agree that a lack of resources in the public defender’s office contributed to Kidd’s problems. And at this stage in his appeals process, Kidd no longer even has the right to counsel. For inmates like him, access to adequate representation is largely determined by one’s ability to pay for it.

While O’Brien doesn’t keep time on Kidd’s case, he estimates that exonerations normally cost between $500,000 and $1 million of a lawyer’s time. Most attorneys can’t devote that much time to a pro bono case. There have been about 2,400 exonerations in the United States since 1989, according to the National Registry of Exonerations. It’s difficult to ascertain the exact nationwide wrongful conviction rate, though the MIP’s website says it could be between 2 and 5 percent or as high as 7 percent.

***

As Gideon v. Wainwright changed the face of American defense, Brady v. Maryland changed the face of American prosecution.

John Brady had been charged with murder by the prosecution, even though his robbery partner, Charles Boblit, previously confessed to the actual killing. The Supreme Court ruled in 1963 that the prosecution’s suppression of Boblit’s confession during Brady’s trial violated his right to due process.

Kidd experienced firsthand how the suppression of key information can seal a terrible fate. In the 2015 habeas petition, Kidd’s attorneys identified some of the missteps taken in the trial, including the prosecution’s failure to correct false evidence presented in court.

Kate Ladesh, the lawyer representing Marcus Merrill in the joint trial, attempted to divert the blame from her client to Kidd by saying Kidd’s fingerprint was found in a vehicle. Kidd’s fingerprint was indeed found in a vehicle: His own.

Ladesh never made an effort to clarify this fact, leaving the court to believe that Kidd’s fingerprint was discovered in the getaway car. His lawyers think this key omission helped paint Kidd as the guilty party.

McGowan had a legal duty to correct Ladesh’s fingerprint claim, according to Kidd’s attorneys. They believe Supreme Court cases like Berger v. United States and Giglio v. United States set the legal precedent that McGowan should have done everything in her power to convict Kidd without the use of false evidence.

But rather than correct the record about Kidd’s fingerprint, she allowed Ladesh to present her misguided argument without challenge, ultimately helping her own case against Kidd. Additionally, McGowan went so far as to bring up Kidd’s fingerprint in her argument without accurate citation of context.

Kidd’s attorneys have also claimed McGowan engaged in unfair tactics by pressuring young Kayla Bryant to identify Kidd as one of the suspects. The girl twice denied in court that one of the suspects was in the room, so the prosecution turned to an alleged out-of-court identification she made of Kidd.

Kayla Bryant had previously failed to identify Kidd several times in a photo array, which was captured on video. Police coaxed a flimsy positive identification from her after showing Kidd once again in a video lineup. Kidd’s lawyers said that introducing Kidd’s image multiple times was a form of suggestive procedure, which made the lineup more likely to end in a misidentification.

Kidd’s defense team also argues the prosecution failed to disclose the Goodspeeds’ depositions, which were not taken until the Friday before the trial. Anderson says she was not made aware of the depositions despite searching for the Goodspeeds before the trial.

Prosecutors are obliged to “present all of the evidence per the rules of evidence in a fair manner,” Anderson says. “And if you have the evidence that someone’s guilty, that’s what the jury will determine. If you have to shade the evidence in a way to make your case better, you’re not doing your job.”

McGowan would eventually become a prosecutor in Douglas County, Kansas. But in 2013, the Kansas Supreme Court found her at fault for misconduct and trial errors due to improper comments made during a sentencing hearing. The sentence was vacated as a result. Four other cases were also appealed on similar grounds, and some of her other cases were redistributed among other prosecutors.

Kidd’s claims of innocence have earned him the support of a different former Jackson County prosecutor, Cindy Dodge, who’s now on his legal team. She told KSHB in 2016 that her own investigation into Kidd’s case led her to believe he’s innocent. “I wouldn’t be working on this and spending hundreds of hours of free time,” she said at the time.

McGowan’s actions, meanwhile, mean that a guilty man in Goodspeed Jr. is still walking the streets, Kidd’s supporters say. And in cases of prosecutorial misconduct, there’s often no accountability.

O’Brien says it’s “pretty rare” for prosecutors to be disciplined by bar associations for sitting on evidence. After running through a handful of examples, O’Brien jokes that he may have named all of the cases where prosecutors have faced repercussions.

One of the most well-known disbarments in recent history occurred more than a decade ago. Durham County prosecutor Mike Nifong was disbarred after withholding exculpatory DNA evidence in the controversial 2006 Duke University lacrosse rape case. He was sentenced to one day in jail after lying about giving the DNA evidence to defense attorneys.

***

This week in Missouri’s 43rd Judicial Circuit, Kidd’s lawyers are invoking Rule 91, a state law that gives inmates their last chance for habeas corpus relief in court. It’s the latest in a decades-long series of legal fights.

“It’s an uphill battle trying to prove your innocence,” says Kidd. He believes he’ll win, though his optimism arises partly out of necessity. “Surrendering just isn’t an option,” he says.

O’Brien shares those sentiments. “I should be really cynical after doing this shit for 30 years,” he says. “But I’m not, because if you give into it—if the lawyers think you’re going to lose—you’re going to lose.”

Kidd’s current legal team argued for years that ineffective counsel, particularly during his trial, violated his Sixth Amendment rights. That claim has been procedurally barred because Kidd’s public defenders failed to adequately pursue it during his prior appeals, O’Brien says.

Instead, Kidd’s attorneys are now alleging prosecutorial misconduct on the part of McGowan, who they believe committed Brady violations, particularly by withholding the Goodspeeds’ depositions. Kidd’s lawyers must prove the transcripts of those depositions would have caused a jury to doubt his guilt.

They’re also claiming actual innocence. But because Kidd is not on death row, that might not be enough. The Missouri Supreme Court granted habeas relief in 2003 to another wrongfully convicted O’Brien client, Joseph Amrine. But Amrine was a death row inmate and the rejection of a subsequent case suggested the court is inclined to limit this remedy only to those condemned to die.

If the circuit court rules against Kidd, he can appeal to the district court and even the Missouri Supreme Court. And then that’s it—he will have exhausted his legal options, with the exception of executive clemency.

Kidd and his supporters believe a court system where asserting innocence on appeal is unduly difficult has contributed to his continued incarceration. The public defender on his direct appeal, for instance, didn’t even try to argue his actual innocence. “We have a system that values finality over fairness,” says Tricia Bushnell, the MIP’s executive director and one of Kidd’s attorneys.

After O’Brien took the case, he unsuccessfully petitioned for federal habeas corpus relief. The since-deceased Judge Scott Wright of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Missouri, who denied the petition, nonetheless said at Kidd’s 2009 hearing that “for [Goodspeed Sr.] to get off free would just be awful.” Goodspeed Sr. has since died.

“On the federal level in the United States, it’s an open question of whether or not being innocent entitles you to be released from prison,” says Bushnell.

“We’re here asserting his actual innocence, but we get stuck in these arguments of procedure,” Bushnell says. “What if we just agreed that the court should hear the evidence, and just decide it on the merits?”

“They don’t engage the facts,” Kidd says of the state’s attorneys, “so they nickel over the technicalities of the law.”

Kidd compares the experience of losing time and again in court to taking a gut blow during a boxing match. “Suddenly, all the air has left your lungs,” he says. “While you’re waiting for them to fill back up, you can imagine yourself gasping for air and enduring extreme pain all at the same time.”

***

“I’m going to walk a testimony of faith and transformation.”

Kidd wrote these words in “I Wanna Be Like My Father,” a play recently performed by his fellow inmates. Their performance was captured and shared on YouTube. The play focuses on a man trying to choose between a life of God and peer pressure.

Religious themes are often present in Kidd’s plays, poetry, and books. So is the legal system. If exonerated, Kidd hopes to bring another play, “Justice, Where Are You?” to the stage.

His writing, he says, has helped him throughout the last 23 years.

“I use pen and paper to express myself,” Kidd says. “Writing has been instrumental as a coping tool or a coping mechanism for me. Bottled emotions and expressions not properly channeled, shaken up, can cause a mess.”

But like Clarence Earl Gideon, Kidd’s writing has done more than offer personal solace. When he was first incarcerated, he wrote hundreds of letters proclaiming his innocence to people on the outside. While his fellow inmates laughed, Kidd kept going. For years following his conviction, his efforts were largely to no avail. But eventually, thanks to Kidd’s unrelenting labor, the cavalry did come.

And this week, the court may join the growing number of people who have come to believe in Kidd’s innocence. If that happens, it will be because Kidd didn’t abandon his struggle. “All I know to do is fight,” he says. “The opposite is not an option.”

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‘Some People Might Say That Ricky Fell Through a Crack in the System. This Is Not a Crack. This Is the System.’

Before being locked up on murder charges 23 years ago, Ricky Kidd says he was “naive” about how the criminal justice system worked.

“I didn’t know that innocent people go to prison,” Kidd, now 44, says by phone from the Crossroads Correctional Center in Cameron, Missouri. He told anyone who would listen, starting with the detectives who first took him into custody, that he didn’t do it. “I needed,” he says “to be believed.”

In May 1996, Kidd was charged in the double murder of George Bryant and Oscar Bridges in Kansas City, Missouri. The evidence against him was weak, his alibi was solid, and the case in his favor has only grown stronger since Kidd and his co-defendant, Marcus Merrill, were convicted of the murders in March 1997 and sentenced to life without parole. Kidd nevertheless remains locked up.

There’s no simple explanation for why he’s still in prison. A combination of factors, including an inadequate public defense system, alleged prosecutorial misconduct, and a court system where innocence isn’t always enough, has contributed to what Kidd describes as a “horrible nightmare.”

This week, Kidd has a hearing for habeas corpus relief under Rule 91, a state law that allows convicted inmates to allege unlawful imprisonment even if their prior appeals have been unsuccessful.

After more than two decades of legal battles, this is Kidd’s “best last bite at the apple,” says Sean O’Brien, a law professor at the University of Missouri–Kansas City. He has represented Kidd since 2006. Today he is co-counsel along with the Midwest Innocence Project (MIP), a nonprofit that works to exonerate wrongfully convicted inmates.

“While I may fall in the cracks of legal terms or certain legal impediments, my facts will hold up,” Kidd says. “I’m certain of that.”

***

On February 6, 1996, Alvin Brooks, a former Kansas City cop who was then running a nonprofit called AdHoc Group Against Crime, got a call from a man who said he’d witnessed a shooting. The caller claimed he’d seen three men drive off afterward, Brooks recalls. He told the man to send in a tip to police.

At 11:50 a.m., police were dispatched to the scene. They found Bryant, who was known around the neighborhood as a drug dealer, lying outside his home in a pool of blood. Bridges’ body was discovered in the basement.

Kidd, who was 21 at the time of the murders, had a pretty good alibi. He said he was awakened early that morning by his sister, Nikki, who had stayed with him the previous night and wanted to drive his 1993 Toyota Corolla to work.

By mid-morning, Kidd said he and his stepfather had successfully started his other car, an unreliable white 1981 Oldsmobile Delta 88. Taking Nikki’s young son D.J. with them, Kidd and then-girlfriend Monica Gray drove the Delta to Nikki’s work, where Kidd said he retrieved his Corolla keys.

After picking up the keys at around 11:30 a.m. or noon, Kidd said they took the Delta home. Then Kidd, his girlfriend, and his nephew drove together in the Corolla to the Jackson County Sheriff’s Office at Lake Jacomo so Kidd could get a gun permit for a .357 revolver he had his eye on. The sheriff’s office was a roughly 30-minute drive from Kidd’s residence, says Gray.

Kidd said he filled out an application but was told he’d have to wait a few days for a background check. After stopping to see his ex-girlfriend Kelley Magill and daughter Jasmine, Kidd said he took Gray to her aunt’s home, picked his sister Nikki up from work, and drove to his grandmother’s house. That’s where he learned that Bryant had been killed.

That’s quite a few witnesses. But the prosecution argued that sequence of events occurred on a different day than the murders. At trial, Jackson County Sheriff’s Office Sgt. Michael Buffalow said the form Kidd filled out, which is dated February 6 and was processed that day and the next, could have been mailed in or turned in by hand prior to that date.

But a 2007 deposition from Susan Jordan, the Jackson County Sheriff’s deputy who processed the form, revealed that mail-in applications were exceedingly rare, and that applications were nearly always completely processed either the day they were received or the day after.

Kidd’s defense team has taken the straightforward position that since his application was dated February 6 and processed on February 6 and 7, it’s unlikely he turned it in on another date.

The dated application serves as a crucial part of Kidd’s alibi, but it also suggests a more basic, common-sense defense of his innocence. Why would a killer try to legally obtain a firearm within 24 hours of committing murder? As Brooks, the former cop who got that eyewitness call about the shooting points out: “Even the dumbest of criminals probably wouldn’t have done something like that.”

***

So why was Kidd charged with the murder in the first place?

A drug dealer before going to prison, Kidd acknowledges he hasn’t always been entirely truthful. He lied to police about owing Bryant $500 at the time of his death. More important, though, he failed to reveal a crucial conversation with one of the other men implicated in the killing.

While considerable evidence connects Kidd’s co-defendant Merrill to two of his cousins—Gary Goodspeed Sr. (a.k.a. Abu-Rahman Saad Muwwakkil) and his son Gary Goodspeed Jr. (a.k.a. Rahib Muwwakkil)—neither was charged.

Merrill and his cousins resided in Georgia, but all three were in Kansas City at the time of the murders. While he was in town, Goodspeed Sr. rented a white Oldsmobile Cutlass Ciera that matched witnesses’ descriptions of the three suspects’ car.

The three men had similar alibis for February 6. After spending time together at the Adam’s Mark Hotel, they said they went to see Henrietta Bynum, Goodspeed Sr.’s ex-wife and Goodspeed Jr.’s mother, with whom the victim, Bryant, was rumored to have had a romantic relationship.

“They had more of a motive at that moment in their life than Ricky did,” Teresa Anderson, Kidd’s former public defender, says of the Goodspeeds. “Independently of them, I don’t think he had any grudge with anybody.”

Kidd, who was first named in connection to the crime by anonymous tips, is the “odd man out,” his current attorneys claimed in a 2015 petition for writ of habeas corpus.

And at a 2009 federal hearing, Merrill confessed to the murders and furnished crucial additional information to the courts. In his confession, Merrill described how the Goodspeeds met him at a friend’s house the morning of February 6 and drove him to Bryant’s home. Goodspeed Sr. and Merrill were both armed with handguns, the friend, Eugene Williams, testified—Goodspeed Sr. with a .45-caliber and Merrill with a Glock .9 millimeter. Both kinds of shell casings were later found at the crime scene.

Bryant’s 4-year-old daughter Kayla, who was home when her father was killed, told investigators she had seen the perpetrators at the house before. Goodspeed Jr. told police he and Merrill had visited Bryant a few days prior.

“Daddy’s brother shot Daddy,” Kayla told police. She also reported that one of the men tried to comfort her.

Her account makes more sense in context. Goodspeed Jr. was friends with Bryant and shared a physical resemblance to him. Bryant would sometimes refer to Goodspeed Jr. as “little brother,” Merrill testified. He also said he ignored Goodspeed Sr.’s directive to kill Kayla, instead telling her everything would be OK and firing a bullet through the wall.

Goodspeed Sr. shot Bryant and took Bridges, who was remodeling the house, down to the basement, said Merrill. Bryant later got up and ran into Merrill, who shot him again.

Why did Merrill confess so long after the fact? Kidd and Merrill exchanged a series of letters while both were incarcerated, with Kidd trying to convince Merrill to admit his guilt and exonerate Kidd. His efforts were largely unsuccessful until Kidd asked Merrill if the Goodspeeds were doing anything to take care of Merrill’s daughter, perhaps implying that Merrill was protecting them in exchange for nothing.

“You could look at it as a crisis of conscience,” says O’Brien. “Gary Sr. was the one who killed both of these guys, and Marcus is effectively doing Sr.’s time.” Having unsuccessfully appealed his own conviction, Merrill also hopes for a shot at parole if the case is reopened and he testifies against Goodspeed Jr.

Kidd was a one-time roommate and former close friend of Goodspeed Jr. And this was the other key information he initially withheld from police: On February 5, Goodspeed Sr. asked if he wanted to help rob Bryant, Kidd testified in 2009. During their February 7 meeting, Goodspeed Sr. confessed to killing Bryant, Kidd said. He was afraid to volunteer this information, ironically, because he didn’t want to be connected to the crime.

***

The witness who placed Kidd at the crime scene was the person who telephoned Brooks, a man by the name of Richard Harris. Harris told police he was walking home after visiting his neighbor when he saw Bryant run out of the garage, yelling for help.

One of the suspects, who Harris identified as Goodspeed Jr., dropped a garbage bag containing what he assumed was cash and drugs, pursued Bryant, and tackled him. Then another man came out of the garage and shot Bryant with a .45, Harris claimed. While Harris identified the killer as Kidd, in his 2009 confession Merrill said it was actually Goodspeed Sr.

While Harris was the prosecution’s key witness in its case against Kidd, he’s never been able to get his story straight. “He has said virtually everything about everything,” Kidd’s lawyer O’Brien says, wryly.

Harris told police he had started running away by the time Bryant was shot. But at trial, he said he saw the killer “stand over” Bryant and shoot him.

Harris claimed to have been standing in front of Bryant’s house at the time. His now ex-wife, Letha Jones, testified in 2009 that Harris told her he was at his mother’s house, about 100 feet or more away from Bryant’s home. Another neighbor who witnessed the shooting, Phyllis Davis, testified that she could not recall seeing Harris.

In a 2007 deposition and again at the 2009 hearing, Harris said Bryant’s killer had long hair and was wearing a red do-rag. But Kidd was bald around that time.

Harris was also not the casual bystander he initially made himself out as. He later admitted to buying drugs from Bryant on multiple occasions, even though he initially told police they were just neighbors.

Harris may have testified against Kidd because he was scared the Goodspeeds would kill him, according to Brooks. “Since then, he called me,” says Brooks of Harris, and “he said why he did what he did.”

Little else should have implicated Kidd. “There is no physical evidence tying him to the crime scene that I recall,” said Amy McGowan, Jackson County’s lead prosecutor on the case, in a 2017 deposition. McGowan, who declined to be interviewed for this story, said her “personal belief” is that Goodspeed Jr. was one of the men responsible. She suspected Goodspeed Sr. was involved as well, but claimed she didn’t have enough evidence to go after either man.

Brooks thinks the police deserve blame. “They really did a poor job of that case,” he says, pointing to investigators’ failure to build a strong case against the Goodspeeds based on the similarities between their rental and the getaway car. “They didn’t follow up,” he adds.

All of which means the prosecution had three people who implicated Kidd: the unreliable witness Harris; the contradictory testimony of 4-year-old Kayla Bryant; and Merrill, who later recanted his testimony.

***

Lacking the resources for private representation, Kidd’s case was handled by a public defender at a time when Missouri’s public defenders were utterly unable to devote the resources to Kidd’s case that might have led to his exoneration.

A 2012 audit found that Missouri’s public defense caseload grew 70 percent since 1990. The office, however, has only expanded by 58 percent. After the findings were released, auditor Tom Schweich said that public defenders have relied for decades on outdated 1970s standards for appropriate caseloads. This has gradually led to more overworked lawyers with less time to spend on each case.

“Everybody deserves to have the best defense that they can have,” says Anderson, Kidd’s old public defender, who understands this better than anyone.

That right was clearly established for the first time by Clarence Earl Gideon who radically changed the face of the American judicial system with nothing but a pen and prison paper. Gideon was accused of felony breaking and entering, but since he was poor, he was left to defend himself in court. After being convicted, Gideon took his case all the way to the Supreme Court and won. In 1963, the Supreme Court ruled in Gideon v. Wainwright that the Sixth Amendment guarantees every citizen the right to counsel.

While the case expanded civil liberties, the divide between rich defendants and poor defendants remained. While those lacking funds now have access to counsel, many judicial systems, including Missouri’s, struggle to ensure access to adequate counsel.

A serious lack of resources cheats Missouri public defenders out of the chance to provide the best defense. Lawyers in an office on a shoestring budget are expected to go up against well-funded prosecutors, despite dealing with heavy caseloads and a lack of information.

One fed-up director of the public defender’s office even assigned a case to then-Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon (D), who was attorney general at the time of Kidd’s conviction, as an act of protest in 2016.

The American Civil Liberties Union filed a federal class action lawsuit in 2017 claiming that Missouri’s public defender system was a “constitutional crisis.” It is not unheard of for poor defendants to spend months in jail waiting for a trial. Once they’re finally able to see a public defender, their lawyer only has a short amount of time to review their case before entering the courtroom.

“Some people might say that Ricky fell through a crack in the system,” O’Brien says. “This is not a crack. This is the system.”

Anderson and O’Brien agree that a lack of resources in the public defender’s office contributed to Kidd’s problems. And at this stage in his appeals process, Kidd no longer even has the right to counsel. For inmates like him, access to adequate representation is largely determined by one’s ability to pay for it.

While O’Brien doesn’t keep time on Kidd’s case, he estimates that exonerations normally cost between $500,000 and $1 million of a lawyer’s time. Most attorneys can’t devote that much time to a pro bono case. There have been about 2,400 exonerations in the United States since 1989, according to the National Registry of Exonerations. It’s difficult to ascertain the exact nationwide wrongful conviction rate, though the MIP’s website says it could be between 2 and 5 percent or as high as 7 percent.

***

As Gideon v. Wainwright changed the face of American defense, Brady v. Maryland changed the face of American prosecution.

John Brady had been charged with murder by the prosecution, even though his robbery partner, Charles Boblit, previously confessed to the actual killing. The Supreme Court ruled in 1963 that the prosecution’s suppression of Boblit’s confession during Brady’s trial violated his right to due process.

Kidd experienced firsthand how the suppression of key information can seal a terrible fate. In the 2015 habeas petition, Kidd’s attorneys identified some of the missteps taken in the trial, including the prosecution’s failure to correct false evidence presented in court.

Kate Ladesh, the lawyer representing Marcus Merrill in the joint trial, attempted to divert the blame from her client to Kidd by saying Kidd’s fingerprint was found in a vehicle. Kidd’s fingerprint was indeed found in a vehicle: His own.

Ladesh never made an effort to clarify this fact, leaving the court to believe that Kidd’s fingerprint was discovered in the getaway car. His lawyers think this key omission helped paint Kidd as the guilty party.

McGowan had a legal duty to correct Ladesh’s fingerprint claim, according to Kidd’s attorneys. They believe Supreme Court cases like Berger v. United States and Giglio v. United States set the legal precedent that McGowan should have done everything in her power to convict Kidd without the use of false evidence.

But rather than correct the record about Kidd’s fingerprint, she allowed Ladesh to present her misguided argument without challenge, ultimately helping her own case against Kidd. Additionally, McGowan went so far as to bring up Kidd’s fingerprint in her argument without accurate citation of context.

Kidd’s attorneys have also claimed McGowan engaged in unfair tactics by pressuring young Kayla Bryant to identify Kidd as one of the suspects. The girl twice denied in court that one of the suspects was in the room, so the prosecution turned to an alleged out-of-court identification she made of Kidd.

Kayla Bryant had previously failed to identify Kidd several times in a photo array, which was captured on video. Police coaxed a flimsy positive identification from her after showing Kidd once again in a video lineup. Kidd’s lawyers said that introducing Kidd’s image multiple times was a form of suggestive procedure, which made the lineup more likely to end in a misidentification.

Kidd’s defense team also argues the prosecution failed to disclose the Goodspeeds’ depositions, which were not taken until the Friday before the trial. Anderson says she was not made aware of the depositions despite searching for the Goodspeeds before the trial.

Prosecutors are obliged to “present all of the evidence per the rules of evidence in a fair manner,” Anderson says. “And if you have the evidence that someone’s guilty, that’s what the jury will determine. If you have to shade the evidence in a way to make your case better, you’re not doing your job.”

McGowan would eventually become a prosecutor in Douglas County, Kansas. But in 2013, the Kansas Supreme Court found her at fault for misconduct and trial errors due to improper comments made during a sentencing hearing. The sentence was vacated as a result. Four other cases were also appealed on similar grounds, and some of her other cases were redistributed among other prosecutors.

Kidd’s claims of innocence have earned him the support of a different former Jackson County prosecutor, Cindy Dodge, who’s now on his legal team. She told KSHB in 2016 that her own investigation into Kidd’s case led her to believe he’s innocent. “I wouldn’t be working on this and spending hundreds of hours of free time,” she said at the time.

McGowan’s actions, meanwhile, mean that a guilty man in Goodspeed Jr. is still walking the streets, Kidd’s supporters say. And in cases of prosecutorial misconduct, there’s often no accountability.

O’Brien says it’s “pretty rare” for prosecutors to be disciplined by bar associations for sitting on evidence. After running through a handful of examples, O’Brien jokes that he may have named all of the cases where prosecutors have faced repercussions.

One of the most well-known disbarments in recent history occurred more than a decade ago. Durham County prosecutor Mike Nifong was disbarred after withholding exculpatory DNA evidence in the controversial 2006 Duke University lacrosse rape case. He was sentenced to one day in jail after lying about giving the DNA evidence to defense attorneys.

***

This week in Missouri’s 43rd Judicial Circuit, Kidd’s lawyers are invoking Rule 91, a state law that gives inmates their last chance for habeas corpus relief in court. It’s the latest in a decades-long series of legal fights.

“It’s an uphill battle trying to prove your innocence,” says Kidd. He believes he’ll win, though his optimism arises partly out of necessity. “Surrendering just isn’t an option,” he says.

O’Brien shares those sentiments. “I should be really cynical after doing this shit for 30 years,” he says. “But I’m not, because if you give into it—if the lawyers think you’re going to lose—you’re going to lose.”

Kidd’s current legal team argued for years that ineffective counsel, particularly during his trial, violated his Sixth Amendment rights. That claim has been procedurally barred because Kidd’s public defenders failed to adequately pursue it during his prior appeals, O’Brien says.

Instead, Kidd’s attorneys are now alleging prosecutorial misconduct on the part of McGowan, who they believe committed Brady violations, particularly by withholding the Goodspeeds’ depositions. Kidd’s lawyers must prove the transcripts of those depositions would have caused a jury to doubt his guilt.

They’re also claiming actual innocence. But because Kidd is not on death row, that might not be enough. The Missouri Supreme Court granted habeas relief in 2003 to another wrongfully convicted O’Brien client, Joseph Amrine. But Amrine was a death row inmate and the rejection of a subsequent case suggested the court is inclined to limit this remedy only to those condemned to die.

If the circuit court rules against Kidd, he can appeal to the district court and even the Missouri Supreme Court. And then that’s it—he will have exhausted his legal options, with the exception of executive clemency.

Kidd and his supporters believe a court system where asserting innocence on appeal is unduly difficult has contributed to his continued incarceration. The public defender on his direct appeal, for instance, didn’t even try to argue his actual innocence. “We have a system that values finality over fairness,” says Tricia Bushnell, the MIP’s executive director and one of Kidd’s attorneys.

After O’Brien took the case, he unsuccessfully petitioned for federal habeas corpus relief. The since-deceased Judge Scott Wright of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Missouri, who denied the petition, nonetheless said at Kidd’s 2009 hearing that “for [Goodspeed Sr.] to get off free would just be awful.” Goodspeed Sr. has since died.

“On the federal level in the United States, it’s an open question of whether or not being innocent entitles you to be released from prison,” says Bushnell.

“We’re here asserting his actual innocence, but we get stuck in these arguments of procedure,” Bushnell says. “What if we just agreed that the court should hear the evidence, and just decide it on the merits?”

“They don’t engage the facts,” Kidd says of the state’s attorneys, “so they nickel over the technicalities of the law.”

Kidd compares the experience of losing time and again in court to taking a gut blow during a boxing match. “Suddenly, all the air has left your lungs,” he says. “While you’re waiting for them to fill back up, you can imagine yourself gasping for air and enduring extreme pain all at the same time.”

***

“I’m going to walk a testimony of faith and transformation.”

Kidd wrote these words in “I Wanna Be Like My Father,” a play recently performed by his fellow inmates. Their performance was captured and shared on YouTube. The play focuses on a man trying to choose between a life of God and peer pressure.

Religious themes are often present in Kidd’s plays, poetry, and books. So is the legal system. If exonerated, Kidd hopes to bring another play, “Justice, Where Are You?” to the stage.

His writing, he says, has helped him throughout the last 23 years.

“I use pen and paper to express myself,” Kidd says. “Writing has been instrumental as a coping tool or a coping mechanism for me. Bottled emotions and expressions not properly channeled, shaken up, can cause a mess.”

But like Clarence Earl Gideon, Kidd’s writing has done more than offer personal solace. When he was first incarcerated, he wrote hundreds of letters proclaiming his innocence to people on the outside. While his fellow inmates laughed, Kidd kept going. For years following his conviction, his efforts were largely to no avail. But eventually, thanks to Kidd’s unrelenting labor, the cavalry did come.

And this week, the court may join the growing number of people who have come to believe in Kidd’s innocence. If that happens, it will be because Kidd didn’t abandon his struggle. “All I know to do is fight,” he says. “The opposite is not an option.”

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“Everybody Is Distracted”

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

Fragmented

Are societies becoming hopelessly fragmented to the point that democracies are no longer functional as compromise solutions become impossible? Is technology tearing us apart? What are the consequences?

Big questions and probably deserving intense study and I find these questions on my mind a lot these days. Look, as much as it all seems like an old hat now the internet and social media is still new, but it has already dramatically changed the way we interact and process information and it may well be changing cultures in a big way and not necessarily for the better.

Think of all the kids today that don’t even know what a world without internet looks like. Heck I see 3 years olds glued to screens in cars, at fast food joints and every kid is running around with a smart phone. Their brains are perceiving reality quite differently than perhaps people just 20 years ago. I don’t know what it’s like to grow up being bombarded with constant content at such an early age. But we all are now.

Online, big time:

Who knows what the consequences are?

Being bombarded with content is what the entire ecosystem of consumer technology is based on. What’s $AAPL sell these days? Phones to stare at screens? That was the old business model. Now they’re selling screens to sell content to you. $GOOGL? Content (think Youtube) $NFLX? Streaming content.  $AMZN, $DIS all heading there too. $FB? $TWTR? Content, news, information and an opportunity for people to yell at each other.

After all this is what the market values: Digital content:

The internet is busy folks, very busy:

Can one even grasp the enormity of all this data that is being absorbed non stop? No wonder productivity gains remain elusive.

I suspect many of us are finding ourselves partaking in many of these sub categories. And while it looks like one cohesive pie it doesn’t reflect the echo chambers people are retreating into. Societies of old tended to gravitate toward cohesive cultures, our brave new world is fragmenting rapidly especially on the political side leading to complete paralysis of the political systems.

The US appears hopelessly divided. Every issue is subject to propaganda and misinformation. Reality and truth become lost in the noise. Facts are either dismissed or distorted and perception of reality is entirely dependent on one’s ideology or allegiance to political leanings.

Take climate change as an example:

How can one reach political consensus on action when one can’t even agree on what the problem is? The answer is you can’t and you won’t. Best hope there’s no problem to be solved.

But it’s not only the US. We see it everywhere. Democracies becoming fragmented into ever smaller factions with widely different views.

Just look at some examples of current political fragmentation in Europe:

Spain:

Finland:

Germany

Yes plurality is better than one party totalitarianism. But what are the consequences of dividing too far to the point that consensus can’t be reached? Permanent stalemates with no progress?

If you have followed Brexit over the past 2 years you can’t help but walk away with a sense of exacerbation. People can’t agree on anything it appears. If the Brexit horror show doesn’t make you shudder I don’t know what does.

The larger concern being: Democratic countries becoming incapable of addressing and solving any large complex structural issues. Perhaps this explains the now evident permanent reliance on central banks to kick all problems down the road.

With permanent dovish policies they give the political sphere license to not address issues and keep the illusion of growth and prosperity alive all the while realizing ever expanding wealth inequality and accumulating systemic debt setting the stage for the next financial crisis.

But don’t count on citizens rising up in discontent.

Everybody is distracted, glued to screens and attention spans are waning.

A recent study in Nature Communications supports this assertion:

“With news pushed to smart phones in real time and social media reactions spreading across the globe in seconds, the public discussion can appear accelerated and temporally fragmented. In longitudinal datasets across various domains, covering multiple decades, we find increasing gradients and shortened periods in the trajectories of how cultural items receive collective attention. Is this the inevitable conclusion of the way information is disseminated and consumed? Our findings support this hypothesis.

“In the interplay with competition for novelty, this causes growing turnover rates and individual topics receiving shorter intervals of collective attention”.

In other words we absorb less and less detail, our waning attention spans are victim of constant competing flows of surface content driven headlines.

And it’s happen in real time and is measurable as shown in the study above.

So how again is technology making us smarter and more informed? It’s not, it’s making us less informed on details as we are invited to jump from one controversy and outrage to the next. Permanent distraction through constant bombardment of content soundbites competing for our waning attention spans fragmenting society into separated and divided echo chambers.

Now let’s discuss complex policy solutions with informed voters. Ain’t going to happen. We have an election cycle to run. Best keep everybody engaged with fake outrages and controversies to distract from the real issues that are crying out for desperately needed attention.

Everybody is distracted. Everybody’s focused on the outrage of the day, in shorter and shorter increments. Details are lost or ignored. Subject matter expertise is becoming tweet deep. Everybody has expert opinions on issues they know little about. For a day or two. Soon for an hour or two?

So I ask again:

Are societies becoming hopelessly fragmented to the point that democracies are no longer functional as compromise solutions become impossible? Is technology tearing us apart? What are the consequences?

*  *  *

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via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2GvrQiW Tyler Durden

Iran Warns False Flag “Accident” Could “Lure” Trump Into War

Following US declarations that Washington and its allies intend to take Iranian crude exports down to “zero” by cancelling waivers previously granted to eight nations, tensions are now soaring over the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) attempting to lay down the law amid fears the US Navy could move to block Iran’s access, given the IRGC’s new terror designation. 

On Wednesday Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said if the US intends to pass through the Persian Gulf’s vital choke point — the waterway’s narrowest strait routinely patrolled by Iran’s military it must dialogue with those who defend it”. Sharif’s words were essentially a provocative declaration that the US military must ask Tehran’s “permission” to enter the strait. However, he elsewhere explained that he doesn’t believe that President Trump wants war with Iran, but that he could be “lured into one” by his more hawkish advisers. 

Image via Mehr News Agency

Iran’s foreign minister on Wednesday warned the United States of unspecified “consequences” if it tried to seal off to Tehran the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic passage into the oil-rich Gulf. — Channel News Asia

“I don’t think he wants war,” Zarif said in an interview at the Iranian mission to the UN in New York, according to Reuters. “But that doesn’t exclude him being basically lured into one.”

“Those who have designed the policies that are being pursued do not simply want a negotiated solution. But let me make it clear that Iran is not seeking confrontation, but will not escape defending itself,” Zarif said further.

The Iranian foreign minister also interestingly suggested the possibility that American operatives or their allies could try “to plot an accident” to create a broader crisis, in perhaps a continued cryptic reference to tensions in the Persian Gulf over the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier Zarif addressed jostling over Persian Gulf access at an Asia Society event in New York, while there attending a UN session, but underscored that Tehran is “open for dialogue.”

“We believe that Iran will continue to sell its oil. We will continue to find buyers for our oil and we will continue to use the Strait of Hormuz as a safe transit passage for the sale of our oil,” Zarif said.

“If the United States takes the crazy measure of trying to prevent us from doing that, then it should be prepared for the consequences,” the foreign minister warned further. 

Zarif’s words are alarming, given Iran itself has already threatened multiple times, including very recent declarations, to block the vital oil trade route altogether (through which some one-third of global oil shipping passes), but especially considering the IRGC is now officially designated a “terrorist organization” by the United States. 

Thus the White House will no doubt receive any ultimatum related to the IRGC as tantamount to a terrorist group holding the keys allowing passage through a crucial oil shipping line. 

Along with tightening sanctions the White House has indicated it will take measures to halt Iranian shipments in international waters wherever its tankers are found. Such bellicose rhetoric has been flying between Washington and Tehran since the Trump administration first pulled out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal last May. 

Further addressing the tightening sanctions noose on Wednesday, Zarif said, “We’re allergic to pressure.” He added, “Try the language of respect, it won’t kill you, believe me.”

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2UzMoMh Tyler Durden

Dow Dumped At Cash Market Open After 3M Extends Losses

3M is down over 10% – the biggest drop in 9 years – and Dow futures, after a brief attempt to rally back, have tumbled to fresh lows as the cash market open sees no dip-buying rescue…

To 3-month lows..

Weighing down the Dow notably…

Treasury yields are reversing an early rise…

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2UGU4w4 Tyler Durden

Trader Warns “Today Could Be The Canary Moment”

Via Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow,

South Korea’s GDP miss was a bad one. The Shanghai Composite fell 2.4%, bringing its week-to-date performance to negative 4.5%. Sweden’s Riksbank surprised the market by how dovish it was. The euro made a new low for the year versus the dollar, with the upcoming set of European elections looming larger as the German manufacturing slump continues. Argentine credit default swaps have blown out. Emerging market equities and currencies are in a rough patch. The Japanese yen rose despite BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda talking about downside risks to prices and the need to strengthen forward guidance.

An eventful night to be sure.

It raises the question of whether we are meant to be scared. And the answer is it is way too early to answer in the affirmative if you are talking about financial markets. Sanguine in the midst of all this news? You probably can afford to be if you are a trader. And prepared to do your job.

There isn’t a lot of ameliorating things to say about the Korean number. The won and Kospi seem to have agreed with that sentiment and got hit accordingly. But we are still in wait-and-see mode for the details of the already planned new fiscal spending package. That matters because, while exports remain a challenge, the biggest negative from this report came from public sector investment. Which plummeted. Greater fiscal spending was one of the reasons the BOK came out as firmly on-hold at last week’s monetary policy meeting.

Chinese stocks are having a bad week. They have also been having a stellar year. And as much as any index out there it is a traders’, or speculators’ if you prefer, market. After some tremendous downs then ups, the Shanghai Composite is almost perfectly flat over the course of the last year. And is it any wonder, with all the holidays coming up, that positions are being adjusted? You would have done much better trading these indexes using moving averages than trying to debate how friendly the PBOC or Robert Lighthizer is going to be.

The Riksbank was dovish. They can see the German numbers like everyone else. Their message was concern for growth outside, not inside, the country. In fact, they remain upbeat on domestic matters. They know what everyone should know. The world needs a weaker euro. It’s a good thing. And the Riksbank’s purported desire to strengthen the Krona isn’t consistent with that. In a world with a good amount of red on the screens today, the OMX 30 Stockholm Index has been having a nice up day and making a new four-year high. Low rates and a weak currency are working their magic.

The economic situation in Argentina is bad. But the default-risk pricing is intimately tied to the presidential election campaign, which doesn’t occur until October. And at the risk of being cavalier, markets have a bad track-record pricing political risk. Especially in Latin America. My advice is leave this one to the professionals. It’s for them to suss out the veracity of the soothing words Peronist leader Miguel Angel Pichetto had for an institutional investors meeting yesterday in New York.

As for the yen, take everything with a grain of salt. Japan is about to embark on the public vacation of all time. And traders have had a ball convincing themselves of the flash-crash risk from it. Easy for me to say, but that is looking for trouble in all the wrong places. Kuroda was more dovish than expected. In any case, this safe-haven currency made a new low for the year just yesterday and today’s strength merely takes it back within the range it’s been trapped in.

If you want a cool thing to watch for sentiment today, the MSCI EM currency index has traded back down to a level (1632) where it has bounced from three times this year.

Today could be the canary moment. The gray rhino may be crashing around our China shop. That possibility is why traders use charts and leave stops. But one dicey day doesn’t merit a complete change of worldview

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2ISkDw2 Tyler Durden

Americans Want Drug Companies to Pay for Opioid Addiction: Reason Roundup

More than 70 percent of Americans think pharmaceutical companies should cover the costs associated with opioid addiction and overdoses, according to a new NPR/Ipsos poll. And 57 percent say these companies should be forced to pay in some unspecified and undirected way as punishment.

The poll was conducted April 12-17 with a nationally representative sample of 1,510 respondents.

With one in three respondents saying they know someone who suffers from an addiction or has overdosed on opioids, it’s no wonder that people are angry, exasperated, and bewildered about how best to help. Nonetheless, the poll results are disappointing.

Specific unscrupulous promotion and prescribing behavior can be addressed without blaming all drug companies that make opioid-based drugsa broad category of medications that are crucial for many legitimate medical reasons and used responsibly by many patients and physicians.

And big pharmaceutical settlements with state governments or the feds won’t actually get back to ordinary people—or at least not in the helpful ways hoped. Time and again, settlements of this sort go to unspecified state expenses or, worse, back to law enforcement agencies for more of the same old attempts to arrest our way out of social problems. Individuals and communities struggling with opioid issues would be much better served by donations to local programs and resources.

For a while now, the “opioid crisis” has actually been a fentanyl crisis, especially in terms of what’s causing overdoses and deaths. Nonetheless, a lot of peopleincluding 71 percent of those surveyed by NPRthink the government should do more to restrict access to prescription opioids. You know, the one sure way to send more people to dangerous black-market drugs.

Meanwhile, the government is fighting a two-pronged but all-carceral battle against opioids, seeking to prosecute pharmaceutical companies for creating addicts that other arms of law enforcement will arrest and prosecute.

America’s county jails have turned “into their area’s largest drug treatment centers,” NPR says in a separate article.

It’s the drug war that’s not working. It’s the lack of options for safe drug use and detox that aren’t working. Lining law enforcement budgets with drug company cash won’t change that.


ELECTION 2020

Joe Biden is in. Read Reason‘s Christian Britschi for more information. I am preoccupied with the seemingly random (dare I say Trump-like?) punctuation in his announcement:

For his part, President Donald Trump has welcomed the man he calls “Sleepy Joe” to the presidential race. “I only hope you have the intelligence, long in doubt, to wage a successful primary campaign,” Trump tweeted Thursday morning. “It will be nasty—you will be dealing with people who truly have some very sick & demented ideas. But if you make it, I will see you at the Starting Gate!”

Biden takes a lot of flak for being a boring choice, but “right now most Dem voters, especially black voters, see him as the reliable brand who can win,” suggests Dave Weigel on Twitter. “So does the guy who’d be America’s oldest president get to Iowa without voters second-guessing that?”


FREE MINDS

Understanding data isn’t racist. Kate Andrews of London’s Institute of Economic Affairs pushes back on the idea that pushing back on bad gender-wage gap statistics makes her part of the “alt-right”:


FREE MARKETS

California soda tax bill fizzles. Richard Bloom, the Democratic California assemblyman who’s been pushing for a statewide tax on sugary beverages, has pulled the legislation until next year. This was his third attempt to pass the tax.


QUICK HITS

  • How the U.S. Navy learned to stop worrying and embrace UFOs.
  • “I will have a woman running mate,” says senator and 2020 presidential candidate Cory Booker yesterday. “To me it’s really clear that we do that.”
  • Vanity Fair profiles controversial New York Times editor Bari Weiss:

from Latest – Reason.com http://bit.ly/2IGaLpX
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