Druckenmiller Warns Electoral ‘Blue Wave’ Will Hurt Stocks Long-Term, Gold Will Be Higher

Druckenmiller Warns Electoral ‘Blue Wave’ Will Hurt Stocks Long-Term, Gold Will Be Higher

Tyler Durden

Tue, 10/27/2020 – 13:55

Late on Sunday we were among the first to observe thatOdds Of A “Blue Wave” Tumble, Hammering Risk.

And BofA was worried, because since online odds still have a Biden victory as virtually assured, the reason for the slide in the chart above is the sudden surge in doubt that Democrats will wrest control of the Senate. Only without the Senate, the key anchor of the “stimulus” and “reflation” trades is gone.

In fact, according to BofA the only scenario worse than a Trump presidency and a Democratic Congress (which results in Stagnation), is a Biden presidency and a GOP Senate, which would lead to Deflation. This is how the bank described this particular scenario:

President Biden + Republican Senate = Bearish Gridlock

If Republicans retains the Senate they are very likely to block further stimulus under a Democratic President, which BofA says would be bearish for economic growth, corporate profits and financial markets (but it would be bullish for more stimulus from the Fed). In any case, as BofA sarcastically puts it, “after $21tn of monetary & fiscal stimulus in 2020, $0 of follow-on support would be deflationary.”

Indeed, political parties historically have used obstructionist tactics when out of power to thwart key legislation, most often through the “rediscovery” of commitments to “fiscal discipline”. As an example, BofA cites the budget austerity during 2012-2015 as a major reason for the slow economic recovery.

Such a scenario would mean a deflationary reset, as “investors should prepare for lower returns and higher volatility. Raise cash and buy Treasuries, munis, and high-quality corporate bonds.”

Then, earlier this week, JPMorgan flipped the latest Wall Street narrative – the one where a Joe Biden victory and a Blue Sweep would be the best outcome for stocks – on its head, instead now suggesting that a Trump victory is the “Most Favorable Outcome”, and would push the S&P to 3,900.

Goldman then jumped on the bandwagon, warning that a Blue Sweep is no longer guaranteed.

But, even if a ‘blue wave’ does occur, billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller warns that the specter of higher taxes and inflation will be a drag on equities in coming years.

Speaking at the Robin Hood Investors Conference, the infamous short-seller warned:

“We have borrowed so much that I’m skeptical that three to five years out that equities will give us any kind of return.”

He does see one asset higher, however, predicting that in four years, inflation will top 4%, gold prices and bond yields will be higher, and the U.S. unemployment rate will be about 7%.

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California Restaurants Want Fee Money Back From a Government That Isn’t Letting Them Operate to Capacity

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A group of California restaurants have filed claims to get back over $100 million in various fees paid to state and local government, arguing that since coronavirus restrictions now prevent them from being able to survive economically, they should no longer be on the hook for these government-imposed costs of doing business.

California’s COVID-19 restrictions on restaurant operation vary county by county, and the claims filed this week via lawyer Brian Kabateck involve establishments in Los Angeles, Monterey, Orange, Sacramento, and San Diego counties, with more legal action from more counties threatened.

As reported in Desert Sun via the Associated Press, “state and county governments have continued to charge fees for liquor licenses, health permits and tourism assessments—even though the restaurants were closed down by government orders or permitted to operate with limited capacity and dining.”

The restaurants involved in the claims—which could be a prelude to a class-action lawsuit—”contend they have been being unjustly punished for following the law and are being charged for permits they can’t use,” notes the Desert Sun. One Los Angeles restaurateur paid over $7,000 in yearly fees beyond property taxes to legally operate and gripes he’s now being hit with late fines for fees he can’t pay because he can’t operate.

Some of the restaurants are forbidden from offering indoor dining while others may operate indoors with limited capacity. But outdoor dining and delivery are often not enough to keep them afloat. The California restaurant industry had employed 1.4 million people, but thanks to COVID-19, reports the California Restaurant Association, up to one million of them have faced layoffs or furloughs.

As Kabateck told the Sacramento Bee, forcing restaurants to pay for operating permits when they are being forced to operate in a manner that can’t keep them going is “offensive and tone deaf….Restaurant owners are obligated to pay these government fees just to operate, yet the same government entities who have collected those fees have forced these businesses to close their doors or drastically restrict operations due to the pandemic.”

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Seasonal Flu Rates Plunge, Baffling ‘Experts’ Who Predicted Deadly ‘Superbug’

Seasonal Flu Rates Plunge, Baffling ‘Experts’ Who Predicted Deadly ‘Superbug’

Tyler Durden

Tue, 10/27/2020 – 13:42

Remember when Dr. Fauci foretold thousands more deaths this fall due to a stunning combination of COVID-19 and the flu?

So far, at least, it looks like those warnings were about as exaggerated as the early projections forecasting millions of deaths, because, Instead, while COVID-19 makes a tremendous comeback, the flu simply isn’t spreading like it used to, for reasons that aren’t yet clear to virologists studying the issue.

In a recent column for his new venture, Just the News, reporter John Solomon pointed this out, citing data from the CDC’s own weekly flu tracker.

This isn’t only an issue for the US. The WHO acknowledged that flu levels remain low around the globe.

“Globally, influenza activity remained at lower levels than expected for this time of the year,” the WHO wrote earlier this month, “though increased detections were reported in some countries.” “In the temperate zones of the southern hemisphere,” the organization continued, “the influenza season remained low or below baseline. Despite continued or even increased testing for influenza in some countries in the southern hemisphere, very few influenza detections were reported.”

“In the temperate zones of the southern hemisphere,” the organization continued, “the influenza season remained low or below baseline. Despite continued or even increased testing for influenza in some countries in the southern hemisphere, very few influenza detections were reported.”

Some have cited the ongoing social distancing restrictions as one reason why flu numbers are down so sharply.

“It does seem that the rates are lower,” Phyllis Kanki, an infectious disease professor at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told Just the News. “I think COVID mitigation measures are likely to lower levels. Some of these mitigation measures may have been particularly effective for high-risk groups for flu, like the elderly and immunosuppressed.”

Perhaps also many people who think they have COVID-19 simply assume they have the flu after testing negative for COVID-19, lowering the official count.

Nevertheless, one CDC scientist maintained that there are “more questions than answers”.

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The “De Facto Parent” Doctrine and Polyamorous Relationships

Lanfair v. Ruggerio, decided Oct. 16 by the Vermont Supreme Court (in an opinion written by Justice Carroll), offers an interesting illustration. The relationship seems to have been dysfunctional in many ways (as relationships that go to court usually are); and I have no reason to think that it’s any more representative of all polyamorous relationships than the “traditional” child custody case is representative of more common heterosexual relationships. Still, it struck me as an interesting story that helps point to issues that will sometimes especially arise when courts deal with polyamorous relationships, as opposed to (say) “de facto parent” claims brought by stepparents or even by grandparents.

J.F., born in January 2015, is the biological son of mother and father. {Father did not participate in this appeal.} Mother is forty-one years old and works as a high school teacher. Plaintiff was a high-school student of mother during 2011-2012 and 2013-2014. Because plaintiff came from an abusive household, she relied on mother for moral support.

When plaintiff turned eighteen, she was kicked out of her home, and mother offered her a place to stay. Plaintiff accepted and moved into mother’s and father’s home in the fall of 2014. Mother was pregnant with J.F. at the time. Plaintiff paid $100 a month for utilities and helped with chores. Two weeks after moving in, plaintiff left the home to attend college in northern Vermont. She returned on the weekends.

Between the fall of 2014 and March 2015, plaintiff and father developed a romantic relationship, which turned into a sexual relationship. At some point thereafter, mother was invited into the relationship. Although mother accepted the invitation, the primary relationship remained between plaintiff and father. For example, mother tried to set up dates with father, but father thought it was unfair to make plaintiff stay home with J.F. Father and plaintiff occasionally went on dates in the evenings, however, and when they did, mother stayed home with J.F.

Nevertheless, the three of them slept in the same bed and eventually got matching tattoos and rings. There was concern, however, that the nature of the polyamorous relationship would ruin mother’s career as a high school teacher. Due to this concern, the parties agreed to keep their relationship secret.

During mother’s pregnancy, father did not want attend to attend mother’s prenatal doctor’s appointments because he was squeamish about doctors. Because plaintiff was interested in medicine, she wanted to attend. Mother and father agreed that plaintiff should attend mother’s prenatal visits. The parties agreed that plaintiff and father would be present for J.F.’s birth, and plaintiff would cut the umbilical cord. The parties also agreed that J.F. would call mother “mommy,” father “daddy,” and plaintiff by her first name. In a Facebook post, dated January 5, 2015, mother expressed her support for plaintiff’s help since moving in that fall and referred to her as a “parental figure.”

After J.F.’s birth, plaintiff sent out the birth announcement to friends and family. Mother went on maternity leave and cared almost exclusively for J.F. After seven weeks, mother returned to work. While mother was at work, plaintiff and father cared for J.F. At the time, father did not work, and plaintiff had transferred to another school as an online student and lived with mother and father full time.

Between father and plaintiff, plaintiff provided more of the care for J.F. When mother was at home, she exclusively cared for J.F., which included before work, after work, and during weekends and holidays. If mother was late in returning home or early in going to work, plaintiff and father would get mad at her. Plaintiff and father also accused mother of spending too much time on her phone when she cared for J.F. In June 2017, mother again expressed her support for plaintiff’s help in a Facebook post and referred to plaintiff as a “[p]art dad, part mom.” In September 2018, J.F. started preschool and mother handled all school-related matters. This reduced the amount of time father and plaintiff cared for J.F.

Around January 2019, unbeknownst to father and plaintiff, mother consulted a divorce lawyer. After finding a document from mother’s lawyer, father called mother insisting that she come home immediately. When she arrived, father and plaintiff confronted her, demanded that she hand over her phone, and when she did, they found evidence that she was having an affair.

As retaliation, they took and withheld mother’s phone, her high-heeled shoes—which they referred to as her “whore shoes”—and her makeup. Father and plaintiff told mother she could not leave them and that she must continue working to provide for the family. They looked up FBI interrogation methods, including sleep deprivation techniques, and attempted to employ them on mother.

Soon after learning about the affair, father attacked mother in their home, hitting her and pulling her hair. Based on this incident, mother obtained an emergency relief-from-abuse (RFA) order against father, and he was charged with criminal domestic assault. The RFA order required father to vacate the home and awarded mother temporary custody of J.F. Mother and father eventually agreed to a “no findings” final RFA order that ended on October 1, 2019 and permitted father to have supervised visits with J.F. once the criminal conditions of release allowed for such contact.

Although plaintiff was not implicated in the claims supporting the RFA order against father, she left the home when he was forced to leave and moved into a hotel room with him. Plaintiff returned to the home every day for ten days to feed her cats. But after ten days, mother changed the locks. To retrieve her items, plaintiff sent mother’s lawyer an email asking to gain access to the house where she referred to herself as a tenant who paid rent and “[p]rovided free daycare for the child.”

Following these events, mother filed for divorce. While the divorce action was pending, plaintiff made serious accusations to mother’s employer, which could have cost mother her job. Mother was placed on paid administrative leave for five weeks while the accusations were investigated. Mother was eventually exonerated and returned to work. After plaintiff made the allegations, mother tried to ensure that there was no contact between plaintiff and J.F. because she was concerned plaintiff would try to turn J.F. against her.

Plaintiff and father are in a committed, long-term relationship. Plaintiff filed her complaint for parentage in March 2019 once it became clear that mother would not allow her to see J.F. {In July 2019, mother and father reached a temporary stipulation for parental rights under which (1) mother would have sole legal and physical custody of J.F., (2) father could have nonsupervised visits with J.F. every Tuesday from 1:30 to 6:30, and (3) plaintiff would have no contact with J.F.} …

[P]ursuant to 15C V.S.A. § 501(a)(1), a person seeking to be adjudicated a de facto parent needs to prove the following by clear and convincing evidence:

(A) the person resided with the child as a regular member of the child’s household for a significant period of time;

(B) the person engaged in consistent caretaking of the child;

(C) the person undertook full and permanent responsibilities of a parent of the child without expectation of financial compensation;

(D) the person held out the child as the person’s child;

(E) the person established a bonded and dependent relationship with the child that is parental in nature;

(F) the person and another parent of the child fostered or supported the bonded and dependent relationship required under subdivision (E) … ; and

(G) continuing the relationship between the person and the child is in the best interests of the child ….

To be adjudicated a de facto parent, a petitioner must prove the 15C V.S.A. § 501(a)(1) factors listed above by clear and convincing evidence. “Clear and convincing evidence is a very demanding standard, requiring somewhat less than evidence beyond a reasonable doubt, but more than a preponderance of the evidence.” [The court agreed that Factors A, B, and F were present, but concluded that Factors C, D, E, and G were not. -EV]

Factor C requires a person seeking de-facto parentage to demonstrate he/she “undertook full and permanent responsibilities of a parent of the child without expectation of financial compensation.” The family division concluded that plaintiff failed to prove this factor by clear and convincing evidence because her role in the family was more akin to that of a nanny than of a parent. It found that plaintiff took care of J.F. on a set schedule during the day when mother was at work. Plaintiff did not care for him on weekends, vacations, or during the evenings or overnight. Furthermore, the family division found that when father was forced to leave the home because of the RFA order, plaintiff voluntarily chose to go with him and left mother with all the responsibility for caring for J.F. Finally, the family division found that mother made all medical and school-related appointments for J.F.

On appeal, plaintiff argues that the family division failed to consider the unique nature of polyamorous families. According to plaintiff, the unique division of labor in her polyamorous relationship with mother and father required her to stop caring for the child once mother was home from work so that she could fulfill non-childcare related tasks necessary for the household. What the family division characterized as a nanny role was in fact the role of a fully and permanently engaged parent in a polyamorous household. Plaintiff also argues that the family division’s finding that she voluntarily left the household was clearly erroneous….

Here, the record indicates that the family division considered the full context of the polyamorous relationship and nevertheless determined that plaintiff did not prove factor C. The court made detailed findings regarding the nature of the polyamorous relationship, including that mother, father, and plaintiff were in a romantic relationship for almost four years.

Considering this context, the family division concluded that plaintiff failed to demonstrate she undertook full and permanent parental responsibilities because her role was more of a nanny or a girlfriend than a parent because she only watched J.F. on a set schedule while mother was at work; did not care for him on weekends, vacations, or at night; and voluntarily left the home when father was forced to leave. The record indicates that the family division considered and made findings regarding the parties’ polyamorous relationship and chose not to assign it significant weight in regard to factor C. This was not an abuse of discretion.

Plaintiff also argues that the family division’s finding that she voluntarily left the home following mother’s RFA order against father is clearly erroneous. We disagree. Plaintiff testified that following the issuance of the RFA order, she was staying with father at a hotel because she “was really concerned about his wellbeing.” The family division’s finding is fairly and reasonably supported by credible evidence….

Factor D requires a person seeking de facto parentage to demonstrate that he/she held out the child as their own. The family division concluded that plaintiff did not prove this factor based on the following findings: Mother, father, and plaintiff agreed to keep the nature of their polyamorous relationship a secret and J.F. called plaintiff by her first name in public and in private. Furthermore, when mother locked plaintiff out of the house, plaintiff sent an email to mother’s lawyer and referred to herself as a tenant who paid rent and provided daycare to J.F.

Plaintiff again argues that the family division erred because it failed to consider the social complexities and nuances of a polyamorous relationship. If these complexities are taken into account, plaintiff argues that she proved factor D because mother acknowledged in two Facebook posts that plaintiff was a parent to J.F., mother allegedly testified that it made her jealous to think that the public saw plaintiff as J.F.’s mother, and it is not unusual for a child to refer to a non-biological mother by her first name…. [T]he family division acted well within its discretion in not assigning significant weight to this evidence because the Facebook posts represented “two statements over the course of four years” and in “practice, neither [mother] nor [plaintiff] held [plaintiff] out as a parent of [J.F.].” …

Factor E requires a person seeking de facto parentage to demonstrate he/she “established a bonded and dependent relationship with the child that is parental in nature.” The family division concluded that although plaintiff demonstrated she had a bonded relationship with J.F., she had not demonstrated the relationship was parental in nature because, citing the discussion regarding factor C, plaintiff’s relationship was more of a nanny than that of a parent. Plaintiff argues that her relationship with J.F. was parental in nature because she purchased J.F.’s clothes and attended medical and school-related appointments. In addition, plaintiff argues that mother acknowledged during her testimony that she never stopped plaintiff from caring for J.F.

As discussed above, the family division’s conclusion that plaintiff acted more like a nanny than a parent is adequately supported by its factual findings, which included that plaintiff only watched J.F. on a set schedule while mother was at work….

Finally, the family division concluded that plaintiff did not prove by clear and convincing evidence that continuing her relationship with J.F. was in his best interest. Even assuming that plaintiff’s relationship with the child was parental in nature, the family division concluded that “continuing a ‘parental’ relationship” was not in J.F.’s best interests.

As an initial matter, the family division unduly restricted factor G to a consideration of whether continuing a parental relationship between the person and the child is in the child’s best interests…. Factor G provides that a person seeking de facto parentage must prove that “continuing the relationship between the person and the child is in the best interests of the child.” By its plain text, factor G is not limited to a consideration of whether continuing a “parental” relationship is in a child’s best interest; rather, it requires a broader consideration of the relationship between the person seeking de facto parentage and the child. This understanding is confirmed by 15C V.S.A. § 501(a)(1) as a whole because several other factors in § 501(a)(1) specifically address the “parental” aspect of the relationship between a person seeking de facto parentage and the child, and factor G considers only “the relationship.”

Notwithstanding that the family division’s interpretation of factor G was too narrow, it made specific findings and conclusions regarding the broader relationship between J.F. and plaintiff. It concluded that continuing the relationship was not in J.F.’s best interests because it found that the controlling nature of father’s and plaintiff’s relationship with mother had a negative impact on the child that caused J.F. to experience difficulty sleeping, constipation, and bedwetting. Furthermore, plaintiff’s report to mother’s employer resulted in mother being suspended from her job. Therefore, the family division found that continuing plaintiff’s relationship with J.F. would result in continuing control over mother. These findings are sufficient to support a conclusion that continuing plaintiff’s relationship with J.F. was not in the child’s best interests….

[T]he family division’s findings regarding the negative effect the antagonistic relationship between plaintiff and mother had on J.F. are [also] not clearly erroneous…. The family division found that prior to the separation, J.F. had difficulty sleeping, wet the bed, struggled with constipation, and had a nervous tick where he pulled at his lip. After the separation, however, the family division found that these behaviors either improved or stopped. It was reasonable to infer from these findings that J.F.’s behaviors improved because the stress in his home de-escalated.

In sum, the family division’s conclusion that plaintiff failed to demonstrate factors C, D, E, and G by clear and convincing evidence is supported by its findings, which in turn are supported by the evidence.

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Illinois’ Governor Begs Citizens To Let Government Tax Them Even More

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Citizens of Illinois pay a lot of taxes, but on Election Day, state leaders are begging its residents for permission to tax them even more.

The state currently ranks seventh nationally in sales taxes and second in property taxes. But Illinois is one of only 11 states that have a flat income tax rate for all residents, regardless of income bracket. That rate is 4.95 percent. Democratic leaders, headed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker, want to change the flat tax to a graduated income tax in order to jack up the rate on the state’s wealthiest citizens.

State lawmakers already approved a bill for this transition in June 2019. Their proposed graduated tax system would slightly cut taxes for people making less than $100,000 a year, but dramatically increase the tax rate for those making more than $250,000 a year to 7.75 percent at a minimum.

Having a flat tax is embedded in the state’s constitution, so lawmakers need to get voters to approve a rewrite in order to actually implement the tax change. So voters will consider referendum SJR1, officially titled “Illinois Allow for Graduated Tax Amendment.” Pritzker isn’t just the amendment’s top spokesman; he’s also far and away the amendment’s biggest financial backer, contributing more than $56 million to the committees pushing for its passage.

Pritzker is calling it a “fair” tax and claiming that 97 percent of Illinois residents will actually see their income taxes decline with the new rates. He even put up a tax calculator to allow people to see what they’d save. It’s all being marketed as a plan to get more money from the state’s richest.

Under Illinois constitutional referendum rules, in order to pass, either 60 percent of the people who vote on the referendum have to say yes, or more than 50 percent of all voters who cast ballots have to approve it.

Here’s the problem. Voters aren’t actually voting to implement Pritzker’s specific tax numbers. They are, in fact, just voting to grant lawmakers the authority to set graduated tax rates. It just so happens that Pritzker and lawmakers have this particular plan that will be implemented should the vote pass. But those numbers aren’t going to be set in stone in the constitution. This referendum grants lawmakers the authority to continue to adjust and, of course, increase these tax rates.

A single person earning $50,000 a year will save all of $39 a year under this new tax plan. That’s not a lot of savings in exchange for giving lawmakers the power to jack up tax rates in subsequent years. The nonprofit Illinois Policy Institute (which is suing over what they claim is a deceptive ballot description of the referendum) looked at what happened when Connecticut switched from a flat tax to a graduated tax, and it set off red flags:

Claims that the middle class will not see an increase might be true at first, but middle class taxes have gone up 13% in Connecticut since they switched to a progressive tax from a flat rate—the only state to do so in the past 30 years. The middle class is where the bulk of taxable income exists, and Pritzker already made $10 billion worth of spending promises from a $3.7 billion tax before COVID-19 put a $4.6 billion hole in state revenues. Moreover, only $200 million of the new tax is expected to go toward the state’s No. 1 fiscal threat—increasing pension costs.

Illinois still has huge, looming unfunded pension problems. Between 2001 and 2009, according to data collected by the Reason Foundation (the nonprofit that publishes this site), the funding status of pensions for government employees within the state dropped from 70 to 51 percent. And the loss of travel and tourism revenue to Illinois due to COVID-19 partly accounts for that hole in state revenue.

Illinois remains desperate for money to keep up with its pension obligations and debts. Unsurprisingly, this tax referendum is endorsed by all the major public employee unions.

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Hunter Biden Confesses Partnership With China ‘Spy Chief’ — Fumes After He And Joe Named As Criminal Witnesses: Audio

Hunter Biden Confesses Partnership With China ‘Spy Chief’ — Fumes After He And Joe Named As Criminal Witnesses: Audio

Tyler Durden

Tue, 10/27/2020 – 13:25

Authored by Raheem Kassam and Natalie Winters via The National Pulse (emphasis ours)

An audio recording exclusively obtained by the National Pulse reveals Hunter Biden discussing business involvement with a “spy chief of China” and how his business partner Devon Archer named him and his father as witnesses in a Southern District of New York Criminal case.

Hunter Biden – in an audio file labelled “Most Genius Shit Ever” – appears to be referencing Patrick Ho, who was a former Secretary for Home Affairs in Hong Kong, as a “spy chief of China” while lamenting how his business partner Ye Jianming of CEFC China Energy had disappeared.

Ho was also involved in the CEFC venture, as originally reported by the New York Post and suppressed by the media and Big Tech firms.

The audio breaks the mainstream media’s narrative that the hard drive is somehow “fake” or does not implicate Hunter or Joe Biden in criminal investigations and/or business deals with the Chinese Communist Party.

The former veep’s son also bemoans longtime business partner Devon Archer naming him and his father Joe as witnesses “in a criminal case” without notifying him.

I get calls from my father to tell me that The New York Times is calling but my old partner Eric, who literally has done me harm for I don’t know how long, is the one taking the calls because my father will not stop sending the calls to Eric. I have another New York Times reporter calling about my representation of Patrick Ho – the fucking spy chief of China who started the company that my partner, who is worth $323 billion, founded and is now missing. The richest man in the world is missing who was my partner. He was missing since I last saw him in his $58 million apartment inside a $4 billion deal to build the fucking largest fucking LNG port in the world. And I am receiving calls from the Southern District of New York from the U.S. Attorney himself. My best friend in business Devon has named me as a witness without telling me in a criminal case and my father without telling me.

The recording adds to the litany of e-mails and stories broken by The National Pulse about the grift of the Biden family, including yesterday’s scoop about the VP’s son using White House access in exchange for resort villa stays and artwork.

Listen to Hunter’s “Most Genius Shit Ever” at The National Pulse.

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Record $54 Billion In 2Y Paper Sold At Second Lowest Yield On Record

Record $54 Billion In 2Y Paper Sold At Second Lowest Yield On Record

Tyler Durden

Tue, 10/27/2020 – 13:17

The most remarkable fact about today’s 2Y Treasury auction is that at $54 billion, it was $2 billion more than the September 2Y auction and the largest on record. As a reference, all 2Y auctions in the period 2015-2017 were $26 billion, or more than 50% smaller than what the Treasury currently needs to keep funding itself.

The second most remarkable fact about today’s record-breaking big auction, is that the yield of 0.151%, which tailed the WI of 0.150% by 0.1bp, was the second lowest on record, just fractionally above the previous record low of 0.136% hit last month. All of this, of course, is due to the Fed depressing short-term yields to unprecedented levels courtesy of $120BN in QE every month.

The other metrics of the auction were less notable: the bid to cover of 2.41 was effectively unchanged from 2.42 last month and well below the six-auction average of 2.63.

The internals were also forgettable, with Indirects taking down 52.4%, also virtually unchanged from last month’s 52.5%, and just below the recent average of 52.8%. And with Directs taking down 15.6%, or the most since June, Dealers were left holding 32% of the auction, or about $17.2BN, which they will of course flip back to the Fed at the first possible opportunity while picking up a few million in capital appreciation in the process.

Summarizing the auction and putting the metrics aside, the core “money helicopter” trend remains intact: the larger the auction the lower the yield, and all thanks to the Fed. Which begs the question – what happens to yields if and when the Fed ever steps away (which is a pointless thought experiment: as Clarida said two weeks ago, the Fed may never be able to step away and stop manipulating the market as the alternative is unthinkable).

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The “De Facto Parent” Doctrine and Polyamorous Relationships

Lanfair v. Ruggerio, decided Oct. 16 by the Vermont Supreme Court (in an opinion written by Justice Carroll), offers an interesting illustration. The relationship seems to have been dysfunctional in many ways (as relationships that go to court usually are); and I have no reason to think that it’s any more representative of all polyamorous relationships than the “traditional” child custody case is representative of more common heterosexual relationships. Still, it struck me as an interesting story that helps point to issues that will sometimes especially arise when courts deal with polyamorous relationships, as opposed to (say) “de facto parent” claims brought by stepparents or even by grandparents.

J.F., born in January 2015, is the biological son of mother and father. {Father did not participate in this appeal.} Mother is forty-one years old and works as a high school teacher. Plaintiff was a high-school student of mother during 2011-2012 and 2013-2014. Because plaintiff came from an abusive household, she relied on mother for moral support.

When plaintiff turned eighteen, she was kicked out of her home, and mother offered her a place to stay. Plaintiff accepted and moved into mother’s and father’s home in the fall of 2014. Mother was pregnant with J.F. at the time. Plaintiff paid $100 a month for utilities and helped with chores. Two weeks after moving in, plaintiff left the home to attend college in northern Vermont. She returned on the weekends.

Between the fall of 2014 and March 2015, plaintiff and father developed a romantic relationship, which turned into a sexual relationship. At some point thereafter, mother was invited into the relationship. Although mother accepted the invitation, the primary relationship remained between plaintiff and father. For example, mother tried to set up dates with father, but father thought it was unfair to make plaintiff stay home with J.F. Father and plaintiff occasionally went on dates in the evenings, however, and when they did, mother stayed home with J.F.

Nevertheless, the three of them slept in the same bed and eventually got matching tattoos and rings. There was concern, however, that the nature of the polyamorous relationship would ruin mother’s career as a high school teacher. Due to this concern, the parties agreed to keep their relationship secret.

During mother’s pregnancy, father did not want attend to attend mother’s prenatal doctor’s appointments because he was squeamish about doctors. Because plaintiff was interested in medicine, she wanted to attend. Mother and father agreed that plaintiff should attend mother’s prenatal visits. The parties agreed that plaintiff and father would be present for J.F.’s birth, and plaintiff would cut the umbilical cord. The parties also agreed that J.F. would call mother “mommy,” father “daddy,” and plaintiff by her first name. In a Facebook post, dated January 5, 2015, mother expressed her support for plaintiff’s help since moving in that fall and referred to her as a “parental figure.”

After J.F.’s birth, plaintiff sent out the birth announcement to friends and family. Mother went on maternity leave and cared almost exclusively for J.F. After seven weeks, mother returned to work. While mother was at work, plaintiff and father cared for J.F. At the time, father did not work, and plaintiff had transferred to another school as an online student and lived with mother and father full time.

Between father and plaintiff, plaintiff provided more of the care for J.F. When mother was at home, she exclusively cared for J.F., which included before work, after work, and during weekends and holidays. If mother was late in returning home or early in going to work, plaintiff and father would get mad at her. Plaintiff and father also accused mother of spending too much time on her phone when she cared for J.F. In June 2017, mother again expressed her support for plaintiff’s help in a Facebook post and referred to plaintiff as a “[p]art dad, part mom.” In September 2018, J.F. started preschool and mother handled all school-related matters. This reduced the amount of time father and plaintiff cared for J.F.

Around January 2019, unbeknownst to father and plaintiff, mother consulted a divorce lawyer. After finding a document from mother’s lawyer, father called mother insisting that she come home immediately. When she arrived, father and plaintiff confronted her, demanded that she hand over her phone, and when she did, they found evidence that she was having an affair.

As retaliation, they took and withheld mother’s phone, her high-heeled shoes—which they referred to as her “whore shoes”—and her makeup. Father and plaintiff told mother she could not leave them and that she must continue working to provide for the family. They looked up FBI interrogation methods, including sleep deprivation techniques, and attempted to employ them on mother.

Soon after learning about the affair, father attacked mother in their home, hitting her and pulling her hair. Based on this incident, mother obtained an emergency relief-from-abuse (RFA) order against father, and he was charged with criminal domestic assault. The RFA order required father to vacate the home and awarded mother temporary custody of J.F. Mother and father eventually agreed to a “no findings” final RFA order that ended on October 1, 2019 and permitted father to have supervised visits with J.F. once the criminal conditions of release allowed for such contact.

Although plaintiff was not implicated in the claims supporting the RFA order against father, she left the home when he was forced to leave and moved into a hotel room with him. Plaintiff returned to the home every day for ten days to feed her cats. But after ten days, mother changed the locks. To retrieve her items, plaintiff sent mother’s lawyer an email asking to gain access to the house where she referred to herself as a tenant who paid rent and “[p]rovided free daycare for the child.”

Following these events, mother filed for divorce. While the divorce action was pending, plaintiff made serious accusations to mother’s employer, which could have cost mother her job. Mother was placed on paid administrative leave for five weeks while the accusations were investigated. Mother was eventually exonerated and returned to work. After plaintiff made the allegations, mother tried to ensure that there was no contact between plaintiff and J.F. because she was concerned plaintiff would try to turn J.F. against her.

Plaintiff and father are in a committed, long-term relationship. Plaintiff filed her complaint for parentage in March 2019 once it became clear that mother would not allow her to see J.F. {In July 2019, mother and father reached a temporary stipulation for parental rights under which (1) mother would have sole legal and physical custody of J.F., (2) father could have nonsupervised visits with J.F. every Tuesday from 1:30 to 6:30, and (3) plaintiff would have no contact with J.F.} …

[P]ursuant to 15C V.S.A. § 501(a)(1), a person seeking to be adjudicated a de facto parent needs to prove the following by clear and convincing evidence:

(A) the person resided with the child as a regular member of the child’s household for a significant period of time;

(B) the person engaged in consistent caretaking of the child;

(C) the person undertook full and permanent responsibilities of a parent of the child without expectation of financial compensation;

(D) the person held out the child as the person’s child;

(E) the person established a bonded and dependent relationship with the child that is parental in nature;

(F) the person and another parent of the child fostered or supported the bonded and dependent relationship required under subdivision (E) … ; and

(G) continuing the relationship between the person and the child is in the best interests of the child ….

To be adjudicated a de facto parent, a petitioner must prove the 15C V.S.A. § 501(a)(1) factors listed above by clear and convincing evidence. “Clear and convincing evidence is a very demanding standard, requiring somewhat less than evidence beyond a reasonable doubt, but more than a preponderance of the evidence.” [The court agreed that Factors A, B, and F were present, but concluded that Factors C, D, E, and G were not. -EV]

Factor C requires a person seeking de-facto parentage to demonstrate he/she “undertook full and permanent responsibilities of a parent of the child without expectation of financial compensation.” The family division concluded that plaintiff failed to prove this factor by clear and convincing evidence because her role in the family was more akin to that of a nanny than of a parent. It found that plaintiff took care of J.F. on a set schedule during the day when mother was at work. Plaintiff did not care for him on weekends, vacations, or during the evenings or overnight. Furthermore, the family division found that when father was forced to leave the home because of the RFA order, plaintiff voluntarily chose to go with him and left mother with all the responsibility for caring for J.F. Finally, the family division found that mother made all medical and school-related appointments for J.F.

On appeal, plaintiff argues that the family division failed to consider the unique nature of polyamorous families. According to plaintiff, the unique division of labor in her polyamorous relationship with mother and father required her to stop caring for the child once mother was home from work so that she could fulfill non-childcare related tasks necessary for the household. What the family division characterized as a nanny role was in fact the role of a fully and permanently engaged parent in a polyamorous household. Plaintiff also argues that the family division’s finding that she voluntarily left the household was clearly erroneous….

Here, the record indicates that the family division considered the full context of the polyamorous relationship and nevertheless determined that plaintiff did not prove factor C. The court made detailed findings regarding the nature of the polyamorous relationship, including that mother, father, and plaintiff were in a romantic relationship for almost four years.

Considering this context, the family division concluded that plaintiff failed to demonstrate she undertook full and permanent parental responsibilities because her role was more of a nanny or a girlfriend than a parent because she only watched J.F. on a set schedule while mother was at work; did not care for him on weekends, vacations, or at night; and voluntarily left the home when father was forced to leave. The record indicates that the family division considered and made findings regarding the parties’ polyamorous relationship and chose not to assign it significant weight in regard to factor C. This was not an abuse of discretion.

Plaintiff also argues that the family division’s finding that she voluntarily left the home following mother’s RFA order against father is clearly erroneous. We disagree. Plaintiff testified that following the issuance of the RFA order, she was staying with father at a hotel because she “was really concerned about his wellbeing.” The family division’s finding is fairly and reasonably supported by credible evidence….

Factor D requires a person seeking de facto parentage to demonstrate that he/she held out the child as their own. The family division concluded that plaintiff did not prove this factor based on the following findings: Mother, father, and plaintiff agreed to keep the nature of their polyamorous relationship a secret and J.F. called plaintiff by her first name in public and in private. Furthermore, when mother locked plaintiff out of the house, plaintiff sent an email to mother’s lawyer and referred to herself as a tenant who paid rent and provided daycare to J.F.

Plaintiff again argues that the family division erred because it failed to consider the social complexities and nuances of a polyamorous relationship. If these complexities are taken into account, plaintiff argues that she proved factor D because mother acknowledged in two Facebook posts that plaintiff was a parent to J.F., mother allegedly testified that it made her jealous to think that the public saw plaintiff as J.F.’s mother, and it is not unusual for a child to refer to a non-biological mother by her first name…. [T]he family division acted well within its discretion in not assigning significant weight to this evidence because the Facebook posts represented “two statements over the course of four years” and in “practice, neither [mother] nor [plaintiff] held [plaintiff] out as a parent of [J.F.].” …

Factor E requires a person seeking de facto parentage to demonstrate he/she “established a bonded and dependent relationship with the child that is parental in nature.” The family division concluded that although plaintiff demonstrated she had a bonded relationship with J.F., she had not demonstrated the relationship was parental in nature because, citing the discussion regarding factor C, plaintiff’s relationship was more of a nanny than that of a parent. Plaintiff argues that her relationship with J.F. was parental in nature because she purchased J.F.’s clothes and attended medical and school-related appointments. In addition, plaintiff argues that mother acknowledged during her testimony that she never stopped plaintiff from caring for J.F.

As discussed above, the family division’s conclusion that plaintiff acted more like a nanny than a parent is adequately supported by its factual findings, which included that plaintiff only watched J.F. on a set schedule while mother was at work….

Finally, the family division concluded that plaintiff did not prove by clear and convincing evidence that continuing her relationship with J.F. was in his best interest. Even assuming that plaintiff’s relationship with the child was parental in nature, the family division concluded that “continuing a ‘parental’ relationship” was not in J.F.’s best interests.

As an initial matter, the family division unduly restricted factor G to a consideration of whether continuing a parental relationship between the person and the child is in the child’s best interests…. Factor G provides that a person seeking de facto parentage must prove that “continuing the relationship between the person and the child is in the best interests of the child.” By its plain text, factor G is not limited to a consideration of whether continuing a “parental” relationship is in a child’s best interest; rather, it requires a broader consideration of the relationship between the person seeking de facto parentage and the child. This understanding is confirmed by 15C V.S.A. § 501(a)(1) as a whole because several other factors in § 501(a)(1) specifically address the “parental” aspect of the relationship between a person seeking de facto parentage and the child, and factor G considers only “the relationship.”

Notwithstanding that the family division’s interpretation of factor G was too narrow, it made specific findings and conclusions regarding the broader relationship between J.F. and plaintiff. It concluded that continuing the relationship was not in J.F.’s best interests because it found that the controlling nature of father’s and plaintiff’s relationship with mother had a negative impact on the child that caused J.F. to experience difficulty sleeping, constipation, and bedwetting. Furthermore, plaintiff’s report to mother’s employer resulted in mother being suspended from her job. Therefore, the family division found that continuing plaintiff’s relationship with J.F. would result in continuing control over mother. These findings are sufficient to support a conclusion that continuing plaintiff’s relationship with J.F. was not in the child’s best interests….

[T]he family division’s findings regarding the negative effect the antagonistic relationship between plaintiff and mother had on J.F. are [also] not clearly erroneous…. The family division found that prior to the separation, J.F. had difficulty sleeping, wet the bed, struggled with constipation, and had a nervous tick where he pulled at his lip. After the separation, however, the family division found that these behaviors either improved or stopped. It was reasonable to infer from these findings that J.F.’s behaviors improved because the stress in his home de-escalated.

In sum, the family division’s conclusion that plaintiff failed to demonstrate factors C, D, E, and G by clear and convincing evidence is supported by its findings, which in turn are supported by the evidence.

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Goldman Warns A “Blue Wave” May Not Come; This Is How It Would Trade It

Goldman Warns A “Blue Wave” May Not Come; This Is How It Would Trade It

Tyler Durden

Tue, 10/27/2020 – 13:10

With just one week to go until the Nov 3 election, Goldman’s Alessio Rizzi finds that options markets are still pricing uncertainty beyond Election Day, “partly due to the risk of a contested election.”

As has been discussed ad nauseam before, the Goldman strategist writes that a clear result with less uncertainty on fiscal policy could be supportive for risky assets, and that “a decline in volatility and related uncertainty can boost investor sentiment which has historically been weak ahead of the election and has improved afterwards.” To wit, he notes that in the months post elections, S&P 500 3m implied volatility has usually decreased (although it is safe to say that extrapolating the future from any previous election would be borderling idiotic).

None of this is new. What is, however, is that one day after JPMorgan flipped the latest Wall Street narrative – the one where a Joe Biden victory and a Blue Sweep would be the best outcome for stocks – on its head, instead now suggesting that a Trump victory is the “Most Favorable Outcome”, and would push the S&P to 3,900, Goldman appears to join this latest bandwagon, warning that a Blue Sweep is no longer guaranteed, something we first observed late on Sunday when we wrote “Odds Of A “Blue Wave” Tumble, Hammering Risk

This is how Rizzi spins the latest data: “since the end of September, according to prediction markets and Superforcasters, the likelihood of a ‘blue wave’ has increased and with it the prospect of larger fiscal spending which could drive a rotation into more reflationary assets.”

Of course, until this weekend, this was the prevailing narrative on Wall Street, and markets had priced in much of this outcome. As Rizzi notes, long-term US rates are close to June’s highs driven by the combined increase of real rates and breakevens, something we observed last week when we showed that the record-long, 7-month decoupling stretch between BEs and real rates had finally come to an end.

Other risk-on pair trades such as cyclicals vs defensives, copper vs gold, equity vs bonds had also outperformed, betting on a Democratic Sweep. In such a “blue wave” scenario, Goldman’s rates team saw the potential for US rates to increase further with pro-inflation rotation within equity likely to continue. The bank also said that “EM equity also has further upside as it could benefit from lower risks related to trade tensions, dollar downside and a more risk-friendly environment.” Finally, call options on MSCI EM could perform well considering the 2w skew is now one of the most expensive across assets.

All of this collapsed – if briefly – on Sunday after we first observed that the odds of a Blue Sweep was tumbling.

Fast forward to today when the Goldman strategist writes that while the likelihood of a Democratic Senate majority has risen since September, “more recently it fell from 69% on Oct 8 to 60% based on prediction markets.” And although a Biden victory with a divided congress might also be market friendly, Goldman “thinks it could introduce renewed risks to the current reflationary rotation.”

If a “blue wave” is not coming, Goldman recommends trading such a “shock” outcome by betting on lower rates with leverage, to wit:

a Call vs put 2w skew on US long-term bond is close to an historical low and risk reversals could be an attractive hedge for lower rates. While the rotation could have a cap, headline equity should still perform well given the lower risk of tax hikes.

That said, the lack of a blue wave would not have a major impact on stocks, with Goldman writing that the bank’s strategists see “the S&P 500 at 3700 in the near term in a Biden victory with a divided congress.”

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The Sports Card Market Is On Fire

The Sports Card Market Is On Fire

Tyler Durden

Tue, 10/27/2020 – 12:55

Submitted by Market Crumbs

Plenty has been written about the rise of new retail traders turning to stock trading during the coronavirus pandemic. While these new traders have benefitted from a market that has mostly gone straight up since the lows earlier this year, the sports card market has also experienced a boom as a result of the pandemic.

As a matter of fact, blue chip sports cards may actually be a better investment than blue chip stocks, at least over the last decade. The Daily Mail says data from PWCC—which manages the largest trading card auction venue in the world, shows the index of the top-performing 500 cards had a return on investment of 216% since 2008 compared to 135% for the S&P 500. 

“The market’s just on fire,” PWCC director of business development Jesse Craig told the DailyMail.com. “We’re very fortunate to be in the business that we’re in right now during a pandemic and still be thriving.”

Just this month the Holy Grail of sports cards, the T206 Honus Wagner, sold for a record $3.25 million, exceeding the previous record of $3.15 million. The seller, who chose to remain anonymous, purchased the card for $130,000 twenty years ago.

The total is still short of the record $3.9 million paid in August for a one of a kind Mike Trout rookie card, proving collectors are increasingly turning to current athletes. Two different Lebron James rookie cards—the 2003 Topps rookie card and a chrome version of it, have increased 800% and 600%, respectively, on Stockx since last year.

Another measure—sports card sales on eBay, shows just how strong the market has been as of late. In a span of less than a month from May to June, more than 40 cards sold on eBay for more than $50,000. Through the end of July, the total more than doubled to 96 as more than 35% sold for $90,000 or more. eBay reported more than $600 million in card sales in 2019, marking a 40% increase from 2016. Executives from sports card companies such as Upper Deck and Topps say the past few years have been the best the industry has ever seen.

So what may be causing the renewed interest in sports cards? Similar to what has been suggested as causing the spike in interest in stock trading, people may simply just be looking for something to do to kill time.

“I think it was kind of this perfect storm this year with coronavirus,” Craig said. “Everybody’s sitting at home with time on their hands. … They started going through their old stuff, got reinvigorated, started paying more attention.”

Experts say some collectors are drawn to sports cards because of nostalgia and their limited supply. Demand from countries such as China, the Philippines and Australia is also bringing fresh money into the market.

It will be interesting to see if the sports card market can continue its hot streak and how it will hold up if the stock market has another sharp selloff similar to earlier this year.

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