Linda Greenhouse Thinks COVID-19 Rules That Favor Casinos Over Churches Raise No Constitutional Issues Worth Considering

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Linda Greenhouse, who covered the Supreme Court for The New York Times from 1978 to 2008, was “startled” by the sympathy that four justices recently expressed for a Nevada church’s challenge to the state’s 50-person cap on religious services. In an op-ed piece published today, Greenhouse argues that the justices’ dissent from last Friday’s decision against granting Calvary Chapel in Dayton an injunction pending appeal irrationally elevates religious concerns above public health. She says the dissenting justices—Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh—”appear oblivious to the facts on the ground, particularly the well-documented role of religious services in spreading the virus.”

To the contrary, it is Greenhouse who seems oblivious to the facts—in particular, Nevada’s arbitrary distinction between houses of worship and businesses that pose similar or greater risks of COVID-19 transmission. Those favored businesses include bars, restaurants, gyms, arcades, bowling alleys, and, most conspicuously, casinos, where thousands of people from around the country have been gathering to try their luck since Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak allowed the gambling palaces to reopen on June 4. All of those businesses are permitted to operate at 50 percent of capacity, while churches, synagogues, and mosques may admit no more than 50 people at a time, regardless of their capacity. A church with seating for 500 people, for example, may not exceed one-tenth of its capacity.

That sort of discrimination is hard to reconcile with the standards that the Court has applied to laws that restrict religious activities. When those laws are neutral and generally applicable, the Court said in the 1990 case Employment Division v. Smith, they are consistent with the First Amendment’s guarantee of religious freedom. But when those laws impose special burdens on religious organizations that do not apply to similarly situated secular organizations, the Court said three years later in Church of Lukumi Babalu Aye v. City of Hialeah, they must satisfy strict scrutiny, meaning the government has to show the restrictions are narrowly tailored to advance a compelling government interest. That test is hard to pass, and the arguments mustered by Nevada in this case do not come close.

Calvary Chapel wanted to hold 45-minute services for up to 90 people, half of its capacity. Under its plan, congregants would follow designated one-way paths in and out of the church, observe physical distancing rules, sit in family groups spaced at least six feet apart, wear masks during services, and pass no items to each other. Sufficient time would be allowed to sanitize the church between services. These precautions, according to an infectious disease specialist consulted by the church, are “equal to or more extensive than those recommended by” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Compare that prohibited plan with the situation in restaurants, where people frequently sit for longer than 45 minutes and do not wear masks while they are eating; in bowling alleys, where groups of up to 50 tournament spectators are allowed to sit together as long as they stay six feet away from other groups; or in casinos, where people drink and gamble in close proximity at blackjack and craps tables, often eschewing the masks that are notionally required. The state lets all those indoor businesses serve up to half as many customers as were allowed before the pandemic, which in casinos means thousands of patrons at any given time, gamblers who often will visit several casinos during their visits.

If there is a logical public health rationale for this distinction, Nevada was unable to locate it. Greenhouse cites “the well-documented role of religious services in spreading the virus,” linking to a New York Times story that originally carried a headline claiming churches “Are a Major Source of Coronavirus Cases.” But the information in the article, suggesting that “churches and religious events across the United States” account for something like 0.02 percent of COVID-19 infections, did not support that claim. Evidently that became apparent to the newspaper’s editors, who revised the headline without explanation two days after the article appeared.

“The Constitution guarantees the free exercise of religion,” Alito notes in his dissent from the decision to deny the injunction sought by Calvary Chapel, which was joined by Thomas and Kavanaugh. “It says nothing about the freedom to play craps or blackjack, to feed tokens into a slot machine, or to engage in any other game of chance. But the Governor of Nevada apparently has different priorities. Claiming virtually unbounded power to restrict constitutional rights during the COVID–19 pandemic, he has issued a directive that severely limits attendance at religious services….That Nevada would discriminate in favor of the powerful gaming industry and its employees may not come as a surprise, but this Court’s willingness to allow such discrimination is disappointing. We have a duty to defend the Constitution, and even a public health emergency does not absolve us of that responsibility.”

Alito suggests that Sisolak’s policy also runs afoul of the First Amendment by discriminating against speech based on viewpoint. “When large numbers of protesters [against police brutality] openly violated provisions of the Directive, such as the rule against groups of more than 50 people,” he notes, “the Governor not only declined to enforce the directive but publicly supported and participated in a protest.” Such discrimination also figured prominently in a federal judge’s June 26 decision against New York’s restrictions on religious services.

Greenhouse, who is currently the Knight Distinguished Journalist in Residence and Joseph M. Goldstein Lecturer in Law at Yale, does not simply disagree with Alito’s argument. She does not seem to understand his point. “‘Religion counts as a viewpoint,’ he wrote, a sentence I found baffling,” she says. “Isn’t belief in public health a viewpoint?”

Greenhouse notes that Nevada’s 50-person limit applies not only to churches but also to lecture spaces, museums, trade schools, and movie theaters (which are allowed to admit 50 customers per screen). But Kavanaugh, in a separate dissent, says Nevada is not off the hook simply because some venues have to comply with the same occupancy rule that applies to churches:

In these kinds of cases, the Court’s religion precedents require a basic two-step inquiry. First, does the law create a favored or exempt class of organizations and, if so, do religious organizations fall outside of that class? That threshold question does not require judges to decide whether a church is more akin to a factory or more like a museum, for example. Rather, the only question at the start is whether a given law on its face favors certain organizations and, if so, whether religious organizations are part of that favored group. If the religious organizations are not, the second question is whether the government has provided a sufficient justification for the differential treatment and disfavoring of religion.

Gorsuch, in his own one-paragraph dissent, makes short work of Nevada’s claim that the First Amendment allows it to disfavor houses of worship in this way:

This is a simple case. Under the Governor’s edict, a 10-screen “multiplex” may host 500 moviegoers at any time. A casino, too, may cater to hundreds at once, with perhaps six people huddled at each craps table here and a similar number gathered around every roulette wheel there. Large numbers and close quarters are fine in such places. But churches, synagogues, and mosques are banned from admitting more than 50 worshippers—no matter how large the building, how distant the individuals, how many wear face masks, no matter the precautions at all. In Nevada, it seems, it is better to be in entertainment than religion. Maybe that is nothing new. But the First Amendment prohibits such obvious discrimination against the exercise of religion. The world we inhabit today, with a pandemic upon us, poses unusual challenges. But there is no world in which the Constitution permits Nevada to favor Caesars Palace over Calvary Chapel.

Greenhouse still doesn’t get it. “I’ve been fascinated that some liberal commentators found the dissenting opinions persuasive and the case a close one,” she writes.

Greenhouse links to a Vox piece in which Ian Millhiser says Calvary Chapel “presented a much stronger legal argument” than South Bay United Pentecostal Church did in its challenge to California’s restrictions on religious services last May. In that case, the Court likewise declined to issue an injunction pending appeal, and Chief Justice John Roberts wrote an opinion emphasizing that states have broad discretion in dealing with communicable diseases. The same four justices dissented.

Millhiser, who was not impressed by the argument against California’s rules, argues that churches in that state “were treated more favorably than similarly situated businesses, as they were allowed to reopen sooner than other places where groups of people gather in auditorium-like settings.” By contrast, he says, “there’s a plausible argument that Nevada does single out places of worship for inferior treatment that’s not imposed on many comparable secular spaces.”

Greenhouse won’t even allow that much, and her reasoning is telling. “I understand the impulse not to appear unduly antagonistic toward religion,” she says, “but I think that generosity toward the religious claim here loses sight of the broader context in which the dissenting justices were writing.”

By that Greenhouse means “the persistence of the Supreme Court’s conservative justices in seeking to elevate religious interests over those of secular society.” As evidence of that persistence, Greenhouse cites recent decisions in which the Court upheld a religious exemption from Obamacare’s contraceptive coverage mandate and ruled that the “ministerial exception” to employment discrimination claims extends to teachers hired by churches.

When you understand that Alito et al.’s receptiveness to Calvary Chapel’s claims reflects a broader concern about religious freedom, Greenhouse seems to be saying, you should be wary about granting those claims any weight, no matter their legal merits. If she is trying “not to appear unduly antagonistic toward religion,” she is not doing a very good job.

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2 Pro-Democracy University Employees in Hong Kong Fired as Beijing-Imposed National Security Law Takes Effect

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With Hong Kong’s new national security law in place, two public universities in the Chinese city have begun shedding faculty members with a history of expressing anti-Beijing sentiments.

On July 27, news broke that Shiu Ka-chun, who teaches at Hong Kong Baptist University, will not have his teaching contract renewed, with no official reason given for the decision. A day later, Benny Tai was fired from his tenured position at the University of Hong Kong (HKU).

Both Shiu and Tai have faced legal trouble for their involvement in the 2014 protests for freedom in Hong Kong. Both helped galvanize support for the pro-democracy demonstrations, sometimes called the Occupy Movement or Umbrella Movement, and have been major players in calling for full democracy in the city. Shiu was convicted in April 2019 of inciting others to cause a public nuisance and of inciting people to incite others to cause public nuisance; he was released from jail in October 2019, after serving six months. Tai was convicted at the same time on some of the same charges; he was sentenced to a 16-month prison term but was released on bail in August 2019. 

Now both men have been expelled from their respective universities, as the institutions rush to dissociate themselves from dissidents.

Tai wrote on Facebook:

The decision to terminate my appointment was made not by the University of Hong Kong but by an authority beyond the University through its agents.

It marks the end of academic freedom in Hong Kong. Academic staff in education institutions in Hong Kong are no longer free to make controversial statements to the general public about politically or socially controversial matters.

South China Morning Post reports that he “learned his fate on Tuesday night after the HKU council reversed a recommendation by the university’s senate earlier this month that there were not enough grounds to dismiss him.” (The council is the university’s governing body, made up of students, staff, and laypeople.) Beijing’s liaison office welcomed the sacking as a “move that punishes evil and praises the virtuous.”

The national security law, which went into effect at the beginning of July, is China’s attempt to exercise greater control over Hong Kong and its pro-democracy agitators. The New York Times reports that the law “has drawn criticism for introducing ambiguously defined crimes such as separatism and collusion that can be used to stifle protest” and that it “sets obedience to Beijing above the former British colony’s civil freedoms.”

Neither Shiu nor Tai have called for violence. In fact, in 2014 Tai advocated nonviolent civil disobedience in The New York Times: Blocking government may be even more powerful than blocking roads. Refusal to pay taxes, delaying rent payments by tenants in public housing estates and filibustering in the Legislative Council, along with other such acts of noncooperation, could make governing more inconvenient.”

Since 1997, when the British handed Hong Kong over to China, the territory has operated under the “one country, two systems” policy, which the city a degree of autonomy. As a result, most Hongkongers are accustomed to freedom of speech, a fair shake in court, and the ability to elect many of their lawmakers. Mainlanders, on the other hand, face regular suppression of speech at the hands of an authoritarian state.

As Beijing tightens its grip on Hong Kong, it’s not just Tai and Shiu who are paying the price: Universities hell bent on caving to Beijing are threatening longstanding norms of academic freedom, and they’ll be much worse for it.

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2 Pro-Democracy University Employees in Hong Kong Fired as Beijing-Imposed National Security Law Takes Effect

erin-song-B05XahTDS6k-unsplash

With Hong Kong’s new national security law in place, two public universities in the Chinese city have begun shedding faculty members with a history of expressing anti-Beijing sentiments.

On July 27, news broke that Shiu Ka-chun, who teaches at Hong Kong Baptist University, will not have his teaching contract renewed, with no official reason given for the decision. A day later, Benny Tai was fired from his tenured position at the University of Hong Kong (HKU).

Both Shiu and Tai have faced legal trouble for their involvement in the 2014 protests for freedom in Hong Kong. Both helped galvanize support for the pro-democracy demonstrations, sometimes called the Occupy Movement or Umbrella Movement, and have been major players in calling for full democracy in the city. Shiu was convicted in April 2019 of inciting others to cause a public nuisance and of inciting people to incite others to cause public nuisance; he was released from jail in October 2019, after serving six months. Tai was convicted at the same time on some of the same charges; he was sentenced to a 16-month prison term but was released on bail in August 2019. 

Now both men have been expelled from their respective universities, as the institutions rush to dissociate themselves from dissidents.

Tai wrote on Facebook:

The decision to terminate my appointment was made not by the University of Hong Kong but by an authority beyond the University through its agents.

It marks the end of academic freedom in Hong Kong. Academic staff in education institutions in Hong Kong are no longer free to make controversial statements to the general public about politically or socially controversial matters.

South China Morning Post reports that he “learned his fate on Tuesday night after the HKU council reversed a recommendation by the university’s senate earlier this month that there were not enough grounds to dismiss him.” (The council is the university’s governing body, made up of students, staff, and laypeople.) Beijing’s liaison office welcomed the sacking as a “move that punishes evil and praises the virtuous.”

The national security law, which went into effect at the beginning of July, is China’s attempt to exercise greater control over Hong Kong and its pro-democracy agitators. The New York Times reports that the law “has drawn criticism for introducing ambiguously defined crimes such as separatism and collusion that can be used to stifle protest” and that it “sets obedience to Beijing above the former British colony’s civil freedoms.”

Neither Shiu nor Tai have called for violence. In fact, in 2014 Tai advocated nonviolent civil disobedience in The New York Times: Blocking government may be even more powerful than blocking roads. Refusal to pay taxes, delaying rent payments by tenants in public housing estates and filibustering in the Legislative Council, along with other such acts of noncooperation, could make governing more inconvenient.”

Since 1997, when the British handed Hong Kong over to China, the territory has operated under the “one country, two systems” policy, which the city a degree of autonomy. As a result, most Hongkongers are accustomed to freedom of speech, a fair shake in court, and the ability to elect many of their lawmakers. Mainlanders, on the other hand, face regular suppression of speech at the hands of an authoritarian state.

As Beijing tightens its grip on Hong Kong, it’s not just Tai and Shiu who are paying the price: Universities hell bent on caving to Beijing are threatening longstanding norms of academic freedom, and they’ll be much worse for it.

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Fitton Fumes After Adam Schiff Gets Away With Doxing High Profile Conservatives

Fitton Fumes After Adam Schiff Gets Away With Doxing High Profile Conservatives

Tyler Durden

Thu, 07/30/2020 – 14:24

Judicial Watch president Tom Fitton is spitting mad after a federal court decision allowing Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) to get away with doxing high-profile conservatives.

Aafter obtaining their phone records through impeachment-related subpoenas, Schiff published the phone numbers of Rudy Giuliani, Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA), journalist John Solomon, Trump attorney Jay Sekulow, attorney Victoria Toensing and others

As John Solomon wrote at the time of Schiff:

His committee secretly authorized subpoenas to AT&T earlier this year for the phone records of President Trump’s personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, and an associate. He then arbitrarily extracted information about certain private calls and made them public.

Many of the calls Mr. Schiff chose to publicize fell into the special-circumstances categories: a fellow member of Congress ( Rep. Devin Nunes, the Intelligence Committee’s ranking Republican), two lawyers (Mr. Giuliani and fellow Trump lawyer Jay Sekulow ) and a journalist (me).

More alarming, the released call records involve figures who have sometimes criticized or clashed with Mr. Schiff. John Solomon

Judicial watch sued to obtain the subpoenas – which Schiff’s Committee claimed “sovereign immunity” and a “Speech or Debate Clause” privilege trumps the Freedom of Information Act.

On Monday, Judge Beryl A. Howell of the US District Court for the District of Columbia, an Obama appointee, sided with Schiff – ruling that the legal watchdog organization “has no right to demand disclosure of the requested subpoenas,” and ordered the case “dismissed with prejudice.”

In response, Fitton said in a statement:

“Adam Schiff secretly subpoenaed, without court authorization, the phone records of Rudy Giuliani and then published the phone records of innocent Americans, including President Trump’s lawyers, a member of Congress, and a journalist. And now a federal court ruled today that Schiff, or any member of Congress can’t be held accountable for this unprecedented and potentially criminal abuse of power. Every American should be concerned about a ruling that suggests Congress has unlimited power to take and publish their private phone records!”

Judicial Watch may appeal the decision.

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Why Even A Small Uptick In Volatility Could “Kick-Start A Massive And Painful Domino-Like Liquidation Event”

Why Even A Small Uptick In Volatility Could “Kick-Start A Massive And Painful Domino-Like Liquidation Event”

Tyler Durden

Thu, 07/30/2020 – 14:05

By Ryan Fitzmaurice and Christian Lawrence of Rabobank

The market is massively “short” volatility

[W]hen it is time for us to sell, or even to stop buying, the response could be quite strong; there is every reason to expect a strong response. So there are a couple of ways to look at it. It is about $1.2 trillion in sales; you take 60 months, you get about $20 billion a month. That is a very doable thing, it sounds like, in a market where the norm by the middle of next year is $80 billion a month. Another way to look at it, though, is that it’s not so much the sale, the duration; it’s also unloading our short volatility position.

Jerome Powell, October 23-24 2012 FOMC Meeting

Summary:

  • The early March virus fears and economic uncertainty caused a spike in market volatility which then translated into large scale and indiscriminate selling across asset classes

  • Objectively speaking, a Biden win in November would result in US economic policy volatility given it would result in a total reversal of Trump’s recently enacted measures

  • Based on current polls, the probably weighted outcome is for increased market volatility ahead of the US election which could lead to wide scale de-risking for the 2 nd time this year

  • Risk parity funds, CTA strategies, and retail ETF liquidation coupled with VaR constrained swap dealers could lead to a perfect storm of risk-asset selling in the back half of this year

  • In short, we see volatility as the key to unlocking cross-asset performance going forward and a rise in vol, whether triggered by the elections or imminent threats, could lead to a sequence equities falling, USTs gaining further ground, and USD reversing its recent weakness.

Probability weighted outcome

The US presidential election is now less than 100 days away if you can believe it. One certainly would not know this by looking at the VIX or any other market volatility indicator as far as we are concerned. In fact, market volatility has been on the decline, albeit from a very high base, ever since global markets bottomed out after the panic and virus triggered but volatility driven selling witnessed back in March. The reason we word it like this is because in today’s machine-driven world, understanding the actual mechanics behind the dominant trading algorithms in the market is an essential survival skill. The fact of the matter is the vast majority of today’s trading algorithms use some form of volatility targeting approach in determining the appropriate position size per sector or asset class. As such, volatility is an explicit input to many strategies in today’s markets. This dynamic can and often does lead to negative feedback loops such as we saw back in the market downturn in March when the virus fears and economic uncertainty caused a spike in volatility which then translated into large scale and indiscriminate selling across asset classes. After all, computers only do what they are programmed to do and when volatility goes higher they are forced to reduce position sizes in order to maintain the desired portfolio volatility target.

The fact that machines employ no discretion can lead to massive herd-like behavior as all systems execute in the same direction at the same time. More recently though, it’s been the “bid” side of the market that the dominant trading algorithms have been sitting on due to the fact that market volatility has been falling. This takes us back to our original statement with respect to the not too distant presidential election. The latest polls suggest it’s very much a toss-up which leads us to consider the probability weighted outcome for stock market volatility based on the election result given that the two platforms are diametrically opposed on many major economic issues. We are mindful here to focus on volatility rather than stock market levels as that is what is likely to matter more. With that in mind, the policy shock would likely come from a Biden victory, as we see it, given that Trump is the incumbent. A Biden victory would surely mean a quick reversal of many of Trump’s signature economic decisions including trade deals, tax cuts, environmental regulations, and the list goes on. Objectively speaking, a Biden win would result in US economic policy volatility given it’s only been very recent that Trump has enacted his own measures. In our view, it would be difficult for the market to ignore such an abrupt policy reversal and market volatility would need to reprice higher as a result. If Trump were to win a second term then perhaps volatility would remain much the same given the policy and economic direction of the country would remain on the same track. So in our view, if the race is indeed a coin toss at this stage, then the probably weighted outcome is for higher volatility in the months ahead and as the election approaches which could lead to wide scale selling for the second time this year no less.

Risk parity funds

Risk parity type funds are arguably some of the most influential participants in today’s global markets. The risk parity allocation method is often associated with famed investor Ray Dalio, the founder of massive hedge fund Bridgewater, which is one of the largest funds in the world with asset under management in the 150 billion USD ballpark. The approach itself is really quite simple and as its name implies, its core philosophy is to allocate risk based on market volatility so that each sector or asset class contributes equally to the overall portfolio return. As such, risk parity type funds typically hold risk equally among equity, fixed income, and commodities markets which differs from the traditional asset allocation approach of roughly 60% bonds and 40% equities with no commodities exposure. They key distinction between these two asset allocation approaches though is the volatility aspect which is a direct input to risk parity funds allocation decisions but plays no part in the traditional approach. It’s exactly this volatility aspect that can cause the nasty feedback loops where all asset classes fall at once such as they did earlier this year when risk parity funds were forced to deleverage in mass and into falling markets. Risk parity funds have spent the last few months buying back those positions that they sold in March but at higher levels, however, a spike in volatility now risks giving back all those hard fought gains.

CTA & risk premia strategies

Another class of influential traders across global markets is CTA and risk premia strategy funds. CTAs and risk premia strategies are somewhat distinct approaches but are often correlated so we will group them together here for this purpose. In fact, the term CTA has become somewhat synonymous with trend following or momentum trading while the risk premia umbrella also includes other market factors such as carry, congestion, or volatility programs. The vast majority if not all of these funds are now systematically based and like the risk parity funds they tend to create herd like behavior. This category of traders is different from risk parity funds, however, in the sense that they are “long/short” rather than “long-only” but the thing that makes them similar in a way is the volatility based approach to position sizing. CTAs and risk premia strategies generally involve trading across asset classes and each underlying has a different volatility profile. To adjust for this fact, funds will volatility adjust position sizes to meet the overall portfolio target just like risk parity funds do. Given that CTAs are “long/short”, one must first know what the net position is in each asset to understand whether a spike in volatility would lead buying or selling on the margin. For this purpose, we look to our own proprietary CTA trading model and find that the current exposure is a net “long” position in interest rate and equity futures while holding a net “short” position in commodities. As such, a spike in cross asset market volatility would lead to CTA selling in interest rate and equity futures, however, we would expect to see buying in the commodity sector as “shorts” are covered and position sizes get reduced, an important caveat.

Retail ETPs

This year has truly been historic on a number of levels and with that another group of powerful traders has emerged on the back of the virus inspired global lockdowns. In fact, millions of people around the world have turned to financial markets for their sense of excitement given that sports and entertainment have largely been on hold for the past few months. In fact, some US brokerages have reported double digit percentage increases in new account openings year-todate. This theme was already underway with many US brokerages moving to zero commission trading while some newer companies specifically target a younger audience with the ‘gamification’ of mobile phone trading applications. This dynamic has been exacerbated by the global stimulus programs that have added ample liquidity to the markets in the form of government checks that have often wound up in retail brokerage accounts. Historically, retail has often been considered by many institutional investors as a counter-indicator with many a mantra implying that retail are always the last to the party and their entrance in itself suggests that a rally is likely coming to an end. In 2020, however, it is fair to say that retail was one of the first categories of investors to dip their toes in at the March lows. Although outright volumes pale in comparison to the institutional world, retail has played a significant role in the equity rally seen since March 23rd and the trend for OTM call options leads to an outsized impact on the market as dealing desks are left with a short gamma positions forcing them to buy as prices head higher. The role of retail has been on full display this year and very notably so in some other key assets such as oil where retail interest in exchange traded products has spiked. In fact, we have written about this extensively in our oil focused notes this year as it has been such a key market driver. In brief, the amount of capital that has poured into oil ETPs has truly been amazing to watch with close to 10 billion USD in inflows this year. The retail oil interest is and was largely a function of the media clickbait that followed the negative price event for oil in April, as we see it. A similar phenomenon was at play as retail investors rushed into recently bankrupt stocks with the thought that they are buying something historically “very cheap”. Clearly there has been a great deal of FOMO (fear of missing out) involved as well as some impulsive decisions from retail players. The fact is that the retail investor is now a meaningful “long” in global markets but we suspect that this position is held with little conviction and will be quick to liquidate should volatility increase or should the market suffer any drawdown. So in a way the retail investor is “short” volatility as much as “long” overall risk assets. That’s not to mention that a wide cross section of exchange traded products have a short volatility component embedded in them, even if not specifically marketed that way. Take for instance, the slew of inverse and leverage ETPs that exist. These products have an implicit “short” volatility element as they tend to decay very fast during volatile market periods and can wind up underperforming their benchmark index by wide margins.

Swap dealers

So we just outlined three major categories of speculative traders who are currently “long” global risk-assets at the moment and in a very meaningful way with the exception of a CTA “short” position in commodities markets. Two of the three groups of traders are heavily systematic and incorporate volatility adjusted position sizing of some sort. The third group is discretionary in nature but largely uninformed and unlikely to suffer through periods of high volatility or large drawdowns for that matter. So what happens if we do indeed see a major risk-off event triggered by a spike in volatility leading up to the election? Who will be there to buy these massive waves of selling that are surely to come? The answer is likely a combination of swap dealers, market makers, as well as the HFT crowd of course. The problem is that swap dealers also work under rigid risk constraints especially in a post Dodd-Frank world. Most banks and swap dealers employ Value at Risk (VaR) limits which are calculated using a historical time series of returns to estimate drawdowns. As such, VaR is a function of market volatility and the more volatile an asset the less you can hold of it. So in short, liquidity dries up fast in a sharp downturn as swap dealers are forced to remain within the bank’s VaR limits. To make matters worse, swap dealers and market makers are generally “short” gamma from selling downside protection to the market. Hedging this negative gamma only amplifies the selling in a down market which feeds back into volatility.

Looking Forward

Looking forward, the global market recovery is hanging on by a shoestring. Any uptick in market volatility could kick-start a massive and painful domino-like liquidation event in risk-assets such as we saw earlier this year. The upcoming US presidential race is the obvious potential catalyst for increased market volatility given the current polls are indicating it is still anyone’s race. In our view, a Trump victory would likely lead to the same or even lower volatility given it would be more of what the market has already seen these past four years. On the other hand, a Biden victory would go a long way to adding policy uncertainty to the market which would likely result in much higher market volatility. As such, using the current polls give you a probability weighted outcome of higher volatility. That said, there are less obvious, but more imminent, potential drivers of higher volatility such as the strong positive seasonality historically witnessed in the VIX for August.

We remain particularly concerned about the month of August given the confluence of:

  1. Very strong positive seasonality in VIX

  2. Anti-trust hearings facing some of the largest companies in the S&P 500

  3. The potential for further delays in announcing another fiscal stimulus package.

In short, we caution readers to not get too comfortable with the recovery witnessed over the last few months and to expect some fairly turbulent markets in the weeks and months ahead.

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Senate Committee Moves To Allow Americans To Sue China Over COVID-19

Senate Committee Moves To Allow Americans To Sue China Over COVID-19

Tyler Durden

Thu, 07/30/2020 – 13:50

Marking the culmination of a process that began more than a month ago, a Senate committee is backing a bill that would allow Americans to sue China for failing to stop the coronavirus pandemic.

It’s the latest in a growing list of antagonistic tit-for-tat actions including ordering the closure of China’s consulate in Houston, the first to open in the US following President Nixon’s historic meeting with Mao back in the early 1970s. China retaliated by closing a US consulate in Chengdu, the capital of China’s Sichuan Province.

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Are Americans Too Poor For New Cars? Older Vehicles Dominate Highways

Are Americans Too Poor For New Cars? Older Vehicles Dominate Highways

Tyler Durden

Thu, 07/30/2020 – 13:45

Even before the virus-induced recession, Americans were quickly spiraling down a financial hole with insurmountable debts and no savings. Their ability to afford a home, nevertheless, a vehicle, was becoming harder by the year. 

One way to gauge the economic mobility of consumers is to track the average vehicle age of a car, sport utility vehicle, and pickup truck. If the average age is within several years, it would mean there’s a high turnover as consumers can swap out older cars for newer ones. 

But a new report via Reuters, citing IHS Markit Ltd. data, has made a troubling discovery, indicating the average age of vehicles on US highways has increased to 11.9 years in January, an increase from 11.8 years for the prior year, which is a two-decade high.

Todd Campau, associate director of aftermarket solutions for IHS Markit, said the pandemic crushed the economy and resulted in sharp declines in vehicle sales is likely to lead to the average vehicle age on roads to breach the 12-year level. 

“We definitely expect to eclipse the 12-year barrier,” he said. People working from home could put fewer miles on vehicles, allowing them to last longer, he said.

Campau said, “average age of cars and light trucks has been increasing steadily for nearly 20 years, reflecting rising prices for new vehicles and improved durability that allows older vehicles to travel more miles with more owners before they are scrapped.”

IHS Markit said older cars on roads could be beneficial for repair shops. 

But there’s a major, as we outlined last week, the virus pandemic has led to “14 million fewer cars” on highways. The ripple effect of older cars and an overall decline in vehicles on roadways suggest America’s economy has been shifted into low gear for a couple of years.

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Gun Seized, Apparently for Being a Racist Group Leader

CBS13 (Sacramento) reports:

It’s a new-aged hate group preaching violence online. The “Bowl Patrol” has less than 100 followers but the Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office says that’s enough for them to take action…. The Southern Poverty Law Center told CBS13 the name “Bowl Patrol” was inspired by [South Carolina racist multiple murderer] Dylann Roof’s distinctive “bowl-cut” hairstyle….

[T]he self-proclaimed leader … host[ed] the Bowl Cast, a podcast spewing hateful rhetoric and language … [and has been] identified … as … Andrew Casarez….

“For a little over three weeks our detectives, along with multiple federal agencies, have been looking into Andrew Casarez,” sheriff’s office spokesperson Lacey Nelson said….

“We’re able to obtain a gun violence restraining order against him and a search warrant, and a firearm was seized,” Nelson said.

“This search warrant it’s the first of its kind at least in the country. As far as how we obtained it and were able to serve it,” Nelson said. “He was posting enough racist rhetoric and propaganda on Facebook that it was concerning that his behaviors could become violent in retaliation.” …

As for the FBI, they don’t police ideology. They will only take action if a person threatens violence or actually commits a crime. But the Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office wasn’t willing to wait.

“Instead of waiting for him to go out and commit acts of violence, per se, they were able to ideally stop it before it started. But he did have a firearm in his possession,” Nelson said….

If Casarez was actually involved in specific acts of violence, or conspired to commit violence, or solicited specific acts of violence against particular people, he could certainly be arrested for those crimes (again, whether the completed crimes, or conspiracy or solicitation, which are themselves crimes). His gun could then potentially be seized, either if they were evidence or perhaps as a condition of pretrial release; and some courts have upheld restrictions on gun possession by people who are under indictment, especially if there is some specific reason to be concerned that the person will use the guns illegally. And the TV segment in the story above suggests that Casarez had mentioned that some particular (bleeped-out) person “still deserves to be raped and murdered,” which might in context justify at least a search and perhaps a charge for solicitation of crime (though it all depends on exactly what Casarez was said, which isn’t clear).

But nothing in the quoted statements from Sheriff’s Office officials suggests that the “gun violence restraining order” and gun seizure stemmed from any crime he had committed (including conspiracy or solicitation); it sounds like the basis for the “gun violence restraining order” is his political rhetoric. I found online what is claimed to be an excerpt from the application for the order, though I can’t vouch for its authenticity (I’m trying to get the court file myself):

And while it does lay out a specific theory as to why he is likely to commit violence, I don’t think this can be enough. A person’s hateful and pro-violence rhetoric—whether it’s hatred for blacks and Jews, as Casarez seems to espouse, or for police officers or capitalists or government officials—is by itself the exercise of First Amendment rights, and the government can’t retaliate against such speech by using it as a basis to deny Second Amendment rights. While the government can use speech as evidence of what one has done or why one has done it (a common use in criminal procedures), I don’t think it can use it as evidence of future dangerousness sufficient to deny someone a constitutional right.

In any case, I look forward to blogging about the gun violence restraining order file when I get it, and updating my analysis as necessary; please keep me in mind that what I’ve written above is based on the limited information I now have.

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Gun Seized, Apparently for Being a Racist Group Leader

CBS13 (Sacramento) reports:

It’s a new-aged hate group preaching violence online. The “Bowl Patrol” has less than 100 followers but the Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office says that’s enough for them to take action…. The Southern Poverty Law Center told CBS13 the name “Bowl Patrol” was inspired by [South Carolina racist multiple murderer] Dylann Roof’s distinctive “bowl-cut” hairstyle….

[T]he self-proclaimed leader … host[ed] the Bowl Cast, a podcast spewing hateful rhetoric and language … [and has been] identified … as … Andrew Casarez….

“For a little over three weeks our detectives, along with multiple federal agencies, have been looking into Andrew Casarez,” sheriff’s office spokesperson Lacey Nelson said….

“We’re able to obtain a gun violence restraining order against him and a search warrant, and a firearm was seized,” Nelson said.

“This search warrant it’s the first of its kind at least in the country. As far as how we obtained it and were able to serve it,” Nelson said. “He was posting enough racist rhetoric and propaganda on Facebook that it was concerning that his behaviors could become violent in retaliation.” …

As for the FBI, they don’t police ideology. They will only take action if a person threatens violence or actually commits a crime. But the Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office wasn’t willing to wait.

“Instead of waiting for him to go out and commit acts of violence, per se, they were able to ideally stop it before it started. But he did have a firearm in his possession,” Nelson said….

If Casarez was actually involved in specific acts of violence, or conspired to commit violence, or solicited specific acts of violence against particular people, he could certainly be arrested for those crimes (again, whether the completed crimes, or conspiracy or solicitation, which are themselves crimes). His gun could then potentially be seized, either if they were evidence or perhaps as a condition of pretrial release; and some courts have upheld restrictions on gun possession by people who are under indictment, especially if there is some specific reason to be concerned that the person will use the guns illegally. And the TV segment in the story above suggests that Casarez had mentioned that some particular (bleeped-out) person “still deserves to be raped and murdered,” which might in context justify at least a search and perhaps a charge for solicitation of crime (though it all depends on exactly what Casarez was said, which isn’t clear).

But nothing in the quoted statements from Sheriff’s Office officials suggests that the “gun violence restraining order” and gun seizure stemmed from any crime he had committed (including conspiracy or solicitation); it sounds like the basis for the “gun violence restraining order” is his political rhetoric. I found online what is claimed to be an excerpt from the application for the order, though I can’t vouch for its authenticity (I’m trying to get the court file myself):

And while it does lay out a specific theory as to why he is likely to commit violence, I don’t think this can be enough. A person’s hateful and pro-violence rhetoric—whether it’s hatred for blacks and Jews, as Casarez seems to espouse, or for police officers or capitalists or government officials—is by itself the exercise of First Amendment rights, and the government can’t retaliate against such speech by using it as a basis to deny Second Amendment rights. While the government can use speech as evidence of what one has done or why one has done it (a common use in criminal procedures), I don’t think it can use it as evidence of future dangerousness sufficient to deny someone a constitutional right.

In any case, I look forward to blogging about the gun violence restraining order file when I get it, and updating my analysis as necessary; please keep me in mind that what I’ve written above is based on the limited information I now have.

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Ocasio-Cortez Could Deal A Fatal Blow To US Oil Pipelines

Ocasio-Cortez Could Deal A Fatal Blow To US Oil Pipelines

Tyler Durden

Thu, 07/30/2020 – 13:25

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

The U.S. oil and gas pipelines industry has had a rough month, with court setbacks for two critical oil pipelines and a ditched plan for a new natural gas pipeline.

And July isn’t over yet, for on the horizon looms yet another potential blow to existing and future oil and gas pipelines. That blow could be delivered by AOC.

Democratic Congresswoman and prominent environmental activist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is now seeking an amendment to the text in the next budget to block the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers from issuing permits to oil and gas infrastructure, HuffPost reports.

According to the proposed legislation, “None of the funds made available by this Act may be used by the Corps of Engineers to issue a permit under section 404 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (33 U.S.C. 1344) for the discharge of dredged or fill material resulting from an activity to construct a pipeline for the transportation of oil or gas.”  

The proposed amendment was set for discussion at a hearing of the House Committee on Rules on Tuesday.

The amendment could basically prevent the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers from working on and building oil and gas pipelines crossing waterways, derailing not just future pipelines but also the Dakota Access Pipeline, which was ordered shut pending a new environmental review.

Ocasio-Cortez’s proposed amendment, however, is unlikely to pass even in the Democrat-majority House where Democrats are not at all on the same page about dropping oil and gas pipeline projects, not to speak of the Republican-majority Senate, which is unlikely to pass such a measure.

Still, the proposed legislation highlights the growing divide between environmental justice campaigners and the oil and gas industry, and the ever-growing opposition to pipelines in North America.

The Pipelines’ “Black July”

The anti-pipeline camp has scored several huge victories this month.

First, Dominion Energy and Duke Energy said on July 5 that it was canceling the Atlantic Coast Pipeline “due to ongoing delays and increasing cost uncertainty which threaten the economic viability of the project.”

Despite a major win on a right-of-way issue at the U.S. Supreme Court last month, the developers of the Atlantic Coast natural gas pipeline are definitively scrapping the project because of ongoing delays and significant cost overruns.

“This announcement reflects the increasing legal uncertainty that overhangs large-scale energy and industrial infrastructure development in the United States. Until these issues are resolved, the ability to satisfy the country’s energy needs will be significantly challenged,” said Thomas F. Farrell II, Dominion Energy chairman, president, and chief executive officer, and Lynn J. Good, Duke Energy chair, president, and CEO.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette said that “The well-funded, obstructionist environmental lobby has successfully killed the Atlantic Coast Pipeline.”

On the next day came the highest-profile setback for oil pipelines – a federal judge ruled on July 6 that the Dakota Access Pipeline, in operation since 2017, must be emptied and shut down within 30 days, by August 5, until a new comprehensive environmental review is completed.

A U.S. Appeals Court ruled a week later that Dakota Access can continue to operate while the court considers whether the pipeline should be shut down as ordered by the lower court’s ruling. 

Ocasio-Cortez’s proposal to block the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers from issuing permits to oil and gas pipelines crossing waterways could directly impact a new permit for Dakota Access should courts order the already operational pipeline to obtain one.  

In the third major blow to oil pipelines in just two days, the U.S. Supreme Court ordered on July 6 that construction of the long-delayed and once-resurrected Keystone XL project cannot begin. The justices at the Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that Keystone XL cannot use the so-called Nationwide Permit 12 that allowed pipelines to cross rivers with minimal review if they meet certain criteria. The Supreme Court, however, allowed other pipeline projects to return to use that permit aimed at fast-tracking construction of vital oil and gas infrastructure.

“This is a significant step toward restoring more certainty for energy companies, but declining to revive the permit for Keystone XL is short-sighted as the project has already been thoroughly reviewed for well over a decade,” the American Petroleum Institute (API) commented on the Supreme Court’s decision. 

Court Battles

Dakota Access, Keystone XL, and any other new pipeline project will continue to face challenges to their construction, completion, and operation, potentially delaying in-service dates for new pipelines and adding more costs to already costly projects.

The court order for Dakota Access to shut down shows that even already operational pipelines are not safe from disruptions to their operations.

Regardless of how the proposed amendment from Ocasio-Cortez will pan out in the House committee, the House, and the Senate, Dakota Access and other pipeline projects will continue to face legal challenges for the foreseeable future – to the delight of environmentalists and to the frustration of the oil and gas industry.

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