My Dad and I never agreed on politics given that he was unabashedly liberal in his views. He was a public-school teacher in New Jersey, so one would have expected that, as a proud Democrat, he would have been a champion of one of the Democratic Party’s most-powerful allies: the teachers’ unions. Instead, he refused to join. His rationale was simple: Those unions always protect bad teachers, which harms students.
That point seems obvious. Once I was a guest on John Stossel’s TV show, where he had the audience howling with laughter as he unveiled an unbelievably long and convoluted chart showing the New York City public schools’ process for firing a bad teacher. Los Angeles Unified School District has “rubber rooms,” where teachers who are deemed unfit for the classroom twiddle their thumbs and collect full pay as their cases wind through the adjudication process.
Read the Vergaradecision. Even though higher courts overturned it, the eye-opening Los Angeles ruling documented the way the state’s union-backed system of teacher protections keep “grossly ineffective teachers” in the classroom, thus robbing many students of a quality education. Yet my liberal friends, who express concern about the plight of poor kids, think we can somehow improve public education without tackling the largest impediment to reform.
Meanwhile, most of my conservative friends understand the teacher union problem and complain about it all the time. When it comes to police reforms, however, they are as thickskulled as the liberals. They rarely acknowledge that the same dynamic is at work with police unions, which keep the most dangerous officers on the force.
There are many reasons for our current policing problems, ranging from drug-war-induced militarization to an insular culture, to the legal immunity the U.S. Supreme Court provided to cops and other government workers. But it’s impossible to reform police departments until lawmakers take on the police unions. Unlike with teachers’ unions, however, police unions are more adept at buying politicians on both sides of the aisle.
California state law provides law enforcement officials with the Peace Officers’ Bill of Rights, which offers the equivalent of what Stossel described with teachers: a list of special protections that shield officers from accountability. Note that the Minneapolis officer at the center of the controversy over George Floyd’s death reportedly had 18 prior complaints filed against him.
Then a decades-old California law requires local governments to meet-and-confer with unions. Those agreements provide officers with additional procedural protections. These include strict time limits on launching investigations and paid leave while their cases are under review. Often, the agreements require the agency to give officers the names of witnesses, making it unlikely that a fellow officer will testify against a misbehaving colleague.
It’s easy to see how the current system frustrates accountability. In one instance, even the district attorney accused some deputies of standing by a “code of silence” after the DA’s failed case against an officer who was accused of using excessive force against a suspect in his custody. I’ve watched it take years to incarcerate a police officer who was accused of sexual assaults—thanks in part to outsized union protections that leave the public remarkably vulnerable.
A 2019 study from the researchers at the University of Chicago analyzed violent police incidents following a 2003 Florida Supreme Court decision that granted sheriffs’ deputies the right to organize. This sophisticated analysis compares agencies with newly granted collective-bargaining rights with other police agencies that already had such rights. “(T)he right to bargain collectively led to about a 40-percent increase in violent incidents,” the report concludes.
Those numbers should not be shocking. Consider a parallel. Any police officer or prosecutor will tell you that Proposition 47, which decriminalized many lower-level crimes, led to a spike in drug and property crimes after criminals realized they could evade punishment for committing them. If you exempt people from any punishment for misbehavior, you’ll get more misbehavior. That also applies to government employees, such as police and teachers.
Some conservatives have argued that it’s unfair to compare teachers’ unions to police unions because policing is a more-dangerous profession than teaching. That’s true, but there’s a flip side to that argument. “They’re teachers’ unions, but with tanks and endless get-out-of-jail-free cards,” wrote Lyman Stone in The Public Discourse.
In other words, police do have a more dangerous job—but their mistakes and abuses have a more devastating impact on the public. Stone looked closely at the data and found that police violence has increased as a proportion of U.S. deaths even as crime rates have plummeted.
As policy makers consider ways to reduce some of these shocking use-of-force incidents, they need to evaluate the role of unions in protecting overly aggressive officers. More of us need to follow the lead of my Dad and put aside our political biases as we look for policing solutions.
Are you ready for this week’s absurdity? Here’s our Friday roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty, risks to your prosperity… and on occasion, inspiring poetic justice.
Jail time in Colorado town for not wearing a mask
Englewood, Colorado, a major suburb of Denver, has made it a crime to leave your home without wearing a mask.
And ‘crime’ means crime. They’re not talking about a fine or slap on the wrist.
Anyone over six years old must wear a mask at all times, anywhere in public or in private businesses. And the punishment for breaking the law is up to a year in jail.
By comparison, Colorado sentencing guidelines provide similar penalties for felonies like illegal weapons possession, forgery, theft, and failing to register as a sex offender.
For authoritarians, any silly little law they can think of comes with a year in prison.
It’s like an automatic stamp, new law, BOOM– year in prison.
Just your weekly reminder that there is no crime so trivial that the government won’t throw you in a cage over.
Cops track fast food order to bust party violating lockdown
Ambulance workers eating at a KFC in Australia somehow caught wind of a large order coming in to the fast food establishment.
So naturally, instead of minding their own business, they called the police. That’s what you do in the time of Covid– snitch on your neighbors.
Police followed the delivery driver to the home that ordered the large amount of fried chicken. And sure enough, some horrible criminals were having a birthday party.
But don’t worry, the Australian police issued a total of A$26,000 (over $18,000 US) worth of fines to the partiers.
That will teach them to cower in fear at home instead of living their lives.
Covid-19 is all the excuse authorities need to go full-on police state.
Writer canceled for signing letter against cancel culture
Harper’s Weekly published an open letter warning against “cancel culture.”
It pointed out that the fear of saying the wrong thing at work or online is stifling free speech, killing open discussion, and chilling the exchange of ideas.
And this wasn’t some right-wing group. The letter was signed by the likes of Noam Chomsky, Margaret Atwood, and Gloria Steinem– all famous leftists.
A liberal writer from Vox, Matt Yglasias, assumed he was in good company when he also signed the letter.
But the letter was also signed by “anti-trans” people like the feminist author of Harry Potter, JK Rowling.
So a trans person, Emily VanDerWerff, who also works for Vox decided to report Matt for signing the letter. Emily also posted the letter to the Twitter thought police, but told her 70K followers that she totally wasn’t trying to get Matt in trouble.
Naturally it didn’t take long for the Twitter Inquisition to persecute Matt for his ‘hate speech’. He signed a letter that was also signed by an anti-trans person… which makes Matt anti-trans by association.
Since he was now the victim of the cancel-culture mob-attack, Matt apologized and denounced his signature on the letter.
He said he didn’t realize he was co-signing with anti-trans people.
In other words: I didn’t realize I was supporting free speech alongside some people who don’t think the exact same way as me!
In March, schools around the globe went online in a manner of days. Professors, who had never used distance learning, were suddenly forced to take a crash-course in Zoom and other similar tools. Students, for the most part, were understanding. But I think everyone would agree that the pedagogy from the Spring 2020 semester was not ideal.
The Fall 2020 semester will better. Professors will have now had a full semester of Zooming under their belts. And, they can spend the summer adapting their classes to an online environment–either synchronous or asynchronous. Some professors may decide to generate their own content.
I define the word content very broadly. That word can refer to videos, where the professor is on the screen. It can refer to “narrated” powerpoints, where the professor narrates slides. It can refer to a recorded podcast, where there is only audio, and the professor is speaking. In my mind,”content” refers to anything more than the printed word: either spoken audio or recorded video.
Professors should be very cautious before developing their own content. And I offer this advice after having spent nearly two years and $100,000 on developing my own content for constitutional law. Developing high-quality content is difficult, time-consuming, and expensive. No content may be better for students than weak content. And professors would better spend their time preparing assessments (both summative and formative), and scheduling one-on-one visits with students, than generating content.
Let me explain. The central element of being a professor is writing. That is what we do. We can write articles. We can prepare powerpoint slides (a form of writing). We can compile examinations. The other central element of being a professors is speaking. We present papers. We lecture. We engage in Socratic dialogues. We engage in respectful, pithy discourse during faculty meetings. (Or at least we should). And so on.
Generating content is completely divorced from how professors usually write and speak. It is not enough to write a script and read it aloud, the same way you would read from lecture notes. You have to generate a script that is geared towards the format of a student listening to a podcast or watching a video. Here are two useful tips.
First, sentences must be short. Long, winding sentences with different clauses may work well enough in print. (I avoid, at all costs, long sentences.) Readers can jump around a long sentence if they get lost. But when you are listening to a recording, you are not going to rewind if you lose your place. Short sentences give the brain a chance to process a thought before you move on. For audible content, periods are your friends. Semicolons are your enemies. (How many of you would have put a semicolon after friends? You see!). And never use an em-dash. That punctuation cannot be readily converted to the spoken word. Use a period and move on.
Second, place subjects at the beginning of sentences. Legal prose often buries subjects at the end of a sentence. You may read 20 words before you figure out what the sentence is about. That approach doesn’t work for recording. Let the reader know up front why she is reading the sentence.
So far, I have only offered tips about style. The substance is even harder. Students crave simplicity. The law is not simple. Often, when you distill a complicated concept into a few sentences for a podcast, you leave stuff out. And you know it. When you start to prepare your own content, you will agonize about what to leave in, and what to omit. The process becomes so painful. Writing a script for a podcast is different than creating a powerpoint. You cannot simply read long blocks of text, as you would include a blockquote on a slide. People will tune out. Striking the right balance is very, very difficult.
These tips concern the preparation of the script. But there is an even bigger challenge: delivering it. Most people do not know how they sound when they speak. It is very difficult to listen to a recording of yourself. I do so all the time to help improve my diction. Indeed, I took classes for nearly a year to help slow down my New York pace. I would routinely rewatch my classes, radio interviews, and TV hits. It wasn’t easy. I’ve gotten better, but I occasionally revert back to old habits.
When you speak in a live class, and stumble or slur words, students are forgiving. But when students hear hard-to-understand speech on a recording, the reaction is different. They may ask, “Why didn’t the professor record another take?” Of course, you may have recorded a dozen takes, and that was your best one. But the students will never know it. The margin of error for recordings is so much lower than for live speech. Plus, static and other clicks become very noticeable on most microphones. Editing bad parts out of audio often makes the problem worse.
So far, I have only discussed the spoken word. Recording video is much, much more difficult. Here, I repeat several of the lessons I offered about recording zoom (See here and here). Professors, in general, have poor eye contact. In a large class, it is not a big deal. But with a camera, poor eye contact can create a huge disconnect. You need to maintain direct eye contact with the lens. If you start to move your eyes around, it looks shifty. Keep in mind if you are reading from notes, you will constantly have to move your head up and down. The ideal solution is a teleprompter that goes over or behind the camera. But most professors do not have that setup. And reading from a teleprompter is harder than it looks.
You may need to record several takes before you get the video right. It is tough to stop mid-sentence. You may have to start at the beginning of a paragraph to avoid an awkward break. For example, when Randy and I were in studio, it would take about an hour to record enough content for a five-minute video. We did two full takes from start to finish, and then recorded individual sentences over and over again. And, it is tough to monitor your own speech. When Randy was behind camera, I carefully monitored his speech. If I heard any glitches, I would ask him to start again. And he did the same when I was behind camera. If you decide to generate your own content, you should have someone in the room to raise their hand if there any glitches.
Finally, editing video content is tough. I would not suggest you learn how to use Adobe Premier, or any similar tool. Those products have steep learning curves. I spent several years editing video before law school, and I still don’t feel qualified to make my own content. There are some online tools that let you mix together videos. But precise editing is hard.
The hardest part of creating a video is to develop engaging visuals. It is very, very boring to watch a static shot of a professor at a podium for any length of time. Likewise, I find narrated powerpoints to be soporific. I know professors use both of these approaches. They may be effective in a pinch. But in my mind they add little value. Students would be better reading a script in their head than trying to follow along as a professor reads a script. There is no intrinsic value to have audio or video. Students can use a narrator feature, just as effectively. Most smartphones and devices have this feature.
When Randy and I developed the script for our videos, we used a rule of thumb: the visual had to change every 8 to 10 seconds. In other words, we would not show the same visual for more than 10 seconds. We would cut to a photo, a video, text on the screen, or a different camera angle. Indeed, while writing the scripts, I would deliberately write sentences or clauses that matched up with specific graphical cuts. That process was immensely difficult. But it created engaging and entertaining videos that keep the viewer hooked. It is not possible to develop this sort of content alone over the summer. I am very cautious if professors attempt to go it alone.
***
So far I have offered only caution. What should professors do? Do what you do best. Focus on written material. Distribute written summaries that students can read. Write sample questions and model answers. Give frequent assessments. And go over those assessments. Schedule one-on-one sessions with students. Provide a benefit that cannot be given over Zoom or other asynchronous measures.
Professors have limited time. Generating content is not a prudent use of that time.
Next week I will share some modules for constitutional law classes.
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My Dad and I never agreed on politics given that he was unabashedly liberal in his views. He was a public-school teacher in New Jersey, so one would have expected that, as a proud Democrat, he would have been a champion of one of the Democratic Party’s most-powerful allies: the teachers’ unions. Instead, he refused to join. His rationale was simple: Those unions always protect bad teachers, which harms students.
That point seems obvious. Once I was a guest on John Stossel’s TV show, where he had the audience howling with laughter as he unveiled an unbelievably long and convoluted chart showing the New York City public schools’ process for firing a bad teacher. Los Angeles Unified School District has “rubber rooms,” where teachers who are deemed unfit for the classroom twiddle their thumbs and collect full pay as their cases wind through the adjudication process.
Read the Vergaradecision. Even though higher courts overturned it, the eye-opening Los Angeles ruling documented the way the state’s union-backed system of teacher protections keep “grossly ineffective teachers” in the classroom, thus robbing many students of a quality education. Yet my liberal friends, who express concern about the plight of poor kids, think we can somehow improve public education without tackling the largest impediment to reform.
Meanwhile, most of my conservative friends understand the teacher union problem and complain about it all the time. When it comes to police reforms, however, they are as thickskulled as the liberals. They rarely acknowledge that the same dynamic is at work with police unions, which keep the most dangerous officers on the force.
There are many reasons for our current policing problems, ranging from drug-war-induced militarization to an insular culture, to the legal immunity the U.S. Supreme Court provided to cops and other government workers. But it’s impossible to reform police departments until lawmakers take on the police unions. Unlike with teachers’ unions, however, police unions are more adept at buying politicians on both sides of the aisle.
California state law provides law enforcement officials with the Peace Officers’ Bill of Rights, which offers the equivalent of what Stossel described with teachers: a list of special protections that shield officers from accountability. Note that the Minneapolis officer at the center of the controversy over George Floyd’s death reportedly had 18 prior complaints filed against him.
Then a decades-old California law requires local governments to meet-and-confer with unions. Those agreements provide officers with additional procedural protections. These include strict time limits on launching investigations and paid leave while their cases are under review. Often, the agreements require the agency to give officers the names of witnesses, making it unlikely that a fellow officer will testify against a misbehaving colleague.
It’s easy to see how the current system frustrates accountability. In one instance, even the district attorney accused some deputies of standing by a “code of silence” after the DA’s failed case against an officer who was accused of using excessive force against a suspect in his custody. I’ve watched it take years to incarcerate a police officer who was accused of sexual assaults—thanks in part to outsized union protections that leave the public remarkably vulnerable.
A 2019 study from the researchers at the University of Chicago analyzed violent police incidents following a 2003 Florida Supreme Court decision that granted sheriffs’ deputies the right to organize. This sophisticated analysis compares agencies with newly granted collective-bargaining rights with other police agencies that already had such rights. “(T)he right to bargain collectively led to about a 40-percent increase in violent incidents,” the report concludes.
Those numbers should not be shocking. Consider a parallel. Any police officer or prosecutor will tell you that Proposition 47, which decriminalized many lower-level crimes, led to a spike in drug and property crimes after criminals realized they could evade punishment for committing them. If you exempt people from any punishment for misbehavior, you’ll get more misbehavior. That also applies to government employees, such as police and teachers.
Some conservatives have argued that it’s unfair to compare teachers’ unions to police unions because policing is a more-dangerous profession than teaching. That’s true, but there’s a flip side to that argument. “They’re teachers’ unions, but with tanks and endless get-out-of-jail-free cards,” wrote Lyman Stone in The Public Discourse.
In other words, police do have a more dangerous job—but their mistakes and abuses have a more devastating impact on the public. Stone looked closely at the data and found that police violence has increased as a proportion of U.S. deaths even as crime rates have plummeted.
As policy makers consider ways to reduce some of these shocking use-of-force incidents, they need to evaluate the role of unions in protecting overly aggressive officers. More of us need to follow the lead of my Dad and put aside our political biases as we look for policing solutions.
This Is The Craziest Chart You’ll See Today Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/17/2020 – 08:20
In a world of incredulity, to suggest one chart is the “craziest” may seem a little braggadocio but we suspect after reading below, you will agree…
Something very odd is going on.
Since the beginning of May, the S&P 500 has risen 314 points – a significant surge.
However, as the chart below shows, more than all of those gains have come when the US equity market is closed.
Yes you are reading that correctly: During the US day session, the S&P has lost 5 points; and during the overnight session (from the cash close to the cash open), the S&P has gained 319 points.
Trade accordingly.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3jhoOBE Tyler Durden
“If I ever ran for office, I’d do better as a Democrat..”
Markets are beginning to factor in the US November Election. It’s only 17 weeks away. We’re hearing all the usual fears about how bad a Democrat will be for the economy – especially if Biden also takes the Senate, and what it all means for market stability. I’m wondering about two aspects: how important will it be for the Global Narrative, and what will it will mean for the US itself.
In terms of the Global Narrative – does the coming election actually matter? The Tectonic plates are already in motion, and can’t be stopped. Whatever Trump may think, China has been the defining aspect his reign. It was never just about terms of trade or patent theft. By accident or design Trump became the catalyst for an inevitable showdown with China. He will be remembered for that, if nothing else.
Over his 4 years, the west has now swung 180 degrees from engagement with China to putting up barriers as the Rome vs Carthage moment approaches. Some call it the Thucydides Trap – the inevitability competing empires collide into conflict. Will it be a Cold War won on economics and business, or could it turn Hot? The Chinese certainly don’t want that – they lack true force projection in a conventional sense, but perhaps the next war will be fought in cyberspace.
Whatever, the shift has profound market, business and economic implications. Start planning…
A new ring around China of aligned Pro-west states has formed quickly. It’s no coincidence Trump signed the Hong Kong legislation the same day as Boris threw out Huawei. After the recent unpleasantness on the glacier, India is now aligning itself with the West. Australia is taking the dangerous economic step of delinking itself. Whoever becomes the next US president is not going to undo the new Geopolitical reality – the West’s relationship with China has changed for ever.
There will be issues – particularly for Europe. Does it decide to commit to the West or try to sit in the middle. Italy has embraced the China Belt & Road. The rest of Europe may be more circumspect.
Chinese and Western economic ecosystems will diverge in terms of technology, personal freedoms and surveillance, and business. Some large export markets will close as China favours domestic production. On the other, the virus has highlighted supply chain weakness, and raised the issue of supply security vs supply cost. As tech develops cheap automation and 3 D printing, will dramatically cut the costs of repatriating much of the manufacturing activity hived off to Asia.
As the world divides into camps, it’s unlikely the dollar’s position as defacto global currency will be seriously challenged – unless the West is seen to be losing.
These Geopolitical Macro factors are underway, are long-term and won’t be stopped by the coming election. For most of us, it doesn’t really matter what follows domestically in the US – as long as they don’t mess up too badly.
Yet, it still going to be the most fascinating US vote on November 3rd.
For the last 4 years in the UK we’ve had some extraordinary populist politics. Brexit vs Remain polarised the nation. It may yet fracture the union. It’s become the most divisive issues since Long or Short hair in the Civil War back in the 1640s. Despite the virus, it remains front page as we try to work out an accommodation with Europe. Brexit remains a dominant influence, determining and defining limited political choices.
Something similarly polarising is happening in the US – although it’s a very different equation. The divisive issue is partially Trump himself, but its also the haves versus the have-nots. Let’s not dwell on his character… but he’s conclusively demonstrated that head of the US Government is not a job for a sole-trader, seat-of-the-pants property speculator who can’t delegate, and craves credit for everything.
Being president is the most complex CEO job on the planet. The Republican Party chose Trump, and the American people elected him because they saw an answer to years of fruitless gridlock and detachment of the political classes from main-street America. But, CEO of America Inc? Really? Try again….
From the outside looking in at America, Trumps most notable achievement is his unmatched ability to create absolute Frustration. That’s most visible on US media, where the mainstream has gone absolutely all out negative on Trump. Balanced reporting is out the window – although, to be fair Trump doesn’t really do balanced.
Frustration fuelled the badly planned and botched attempt to impeach and dismiss him – when the Democrats should have been leading on policies and ideas, they stuck to a pointless effort to replace Trump because… well, he frustrated them!
Frustration has also fanned the flames of aggressive Wokedom – the right to be offended by any opinion you don’t like, and be even more offended when others disagree with your opinion. It’s difficult to find anyone in middle class polite society who will admit to partners or friends they intend to vote for Trump… but many will because they horrified at where they perceive “Marxist Woke” is taking their country. Many voters can’t accept Democrats pandering to woke. The sight of Joe Biden taking the knee played brilliantly to younger voters, but caused many older democrats to wince.
(And before I get “no-platformed” as Anti-Woke, I support just about everything that promotes equality and opportunity across society. There is much to be fixed – including that Black Lives most definitely Matter and improving their opportunities will be an effective way to make society just and fair.)
Over the last few days we’ve seen the US twitter-sphere wracked with angst because someone we’ve never heard of has resigned from the NY Times because the left-wingers who run the paper were beastly to her. It’s a great resignation letter – but absolutely so what? It’s a whine and distraction… there aren’t that many hardline Brexiteeers writing for the Guardian either…
I don’t think “Frustration” will necessarily lose Trump the election. Although the polls all say Biden is ahead in all the key states that matter, a lot can happen before November. If the Virus is still rampant, that could benefit Trump if only die-hard voters go to the polls.
Biden currently leads because he’s doing nothing. His strategy is “why interrupt Trump when he’s making mistakes?”He’s advancing no agenda of his own, which means his vote is not “sticky”. In contrast, Trump’s core 40% plus vote will remain absolutely rock-solid no matter what he does.
At the moment Biden appears to have the votes to win, and the Democrats are standing some very strong candidates in key Senate races they look likely to take. They need to gain 3 seats to own the Senate – which looks distinctly possible, raising the nightmare scenario for the Republicans: a Democrat President, Congress and Senate empowered to deliver.. hence the scaremongering about economic and market collapse.
The fear is Biden will come to power raising taxes just as the economy is at its most vulnerable, triggering a market and economic crash. Yep. He might. But I doubt he’s that stupid. With Trump out the way, maybe Washington could get consensual again – and hammer out policy? OK – maybe not.
The question to ask might be: Why who anyone want to be president in the wake of Covid – facing the major issue of paying off the enormous pandemic deficit?
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3eCpgqy Tyler Durden
Futures Tread Water As Critical EU Summit Begins Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/17/2020 – 07:47
S&P futures were flat in a especially low-volume session, rebounding from losses late yesterday after Netflix surprised investors with a dismal subscriber outlook, while European shares fluctuated ahead of a critical EU summit in which leaders met in Brussels to try and hammer through a 750 billion euro post-pandemic recovery fund. 10Y yields continued their slide, dropping to 0.60%,as the dollar weakened.
The Nasdaq Composite has managed to go two months without posting back-to-back declines, but that may be under threat as investors question the resiliency of tech’s searing rally following Netflix’s deplorable guidance.
European and world equity markets were heading for their third weekly gain in a row, but they were the smallest yet and Friday’s go-slow involved all the main asset classes from commodities to bonds according to Reuters. London’s FTSE, Paris, Milan and Madrid had all sagged into the red in early trading and though the euro ticked up, Italian and Spanish bond yields were struggling to stay anchored to their recent lows. An eventual green light to the €750 billion plan should finally lead to joint European debt, but investors are seeing their broader list of uncertainties and questions growing again.
“Presumably, as is the way of Europe, they will agree to come back from more talks followed by a compromise and a watered down deal,” SocGen FX strateigst Kit Juckes said of the EU discussions. “The positive though is that we are getting a recovery fund.”
Europe’s Stoxx Europe 600 Index erased gains of as much as 0.3% led by declines in travel, banking and oil sectors, after Germany’s chancellor said that big differences remain in today’s EU recovery fund talks. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, one of the main resisters to the recovery fund including mass grants, also said that he was “not optimistic” that agreement would be reached on Friday as he arrived for the meeting. The Netherlands wants countries receiving EU support from the fund to agree to reforms in their labor markets and pension systems, and is leading a group of several smaller EU nations calling for stricter conditions.
Among individual movers, Novartis -1%, Shell and Total decline more than 1.5% as oil retreats. Automakers were the biggest gainers, with Daimler rising 4.1% after 2Q earnings were ahead of expectations.
Earlier in the session, in Asia Japan’s Nikkei slid 0.3% on concerns about rising virus infections in Tokyo. The Topix declined 0.3%, with Yoshimura Food Holdings and Teac falling the most. Chinese shares were steady after a more than 4% slide on Thursday, with investors assessing moves by policy makers to tame signs of exuberance. China’s CSI300 index climbed 0.25%, though that was after a near 5% slump on Thursday. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1%, with Xinjiang Xuefeng Sci-Tech Group and Xinjiang Youhao Group posting the biggest advances. South Korea’s Kospi Index and India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index rose while the Jakarta Composite fell.
Adding to the recent rise in U.S.-Sino tensions, Washington had said it was considering banning members of the Chinese Communist Party traveling to the United States. The party totals more than 90 million people.
Meanwhile questions remain: will the COVID-19 pandemic force economies into lockdown again? The United States reported at least 75,000 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, a daily record. Spain and Australia reported their steepest daily jumps in more than two months, while cases continued to soar in India and Brazil.
Investors are also counting on more stimulus. As well as Europe’s recovery fund, the U.S. Congress is set to begin debating a new aid package next week, as several states in the country’s south and west implement fresh lockdown measures to curb the virus. While retail sales for June released on Thursday beat market expectations, real-time measures of retail foot traffic and employee working hours and shifts have flatlined after steady growth since April.
“We now see higher risk of a market correction, considering the improvement in hard economic data we have seen over the past couple of months is likely to halt,” said Tomo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco in Tokyo.
In rates, it was a muted session with Treasury yields lower across the curve after all but 30-year drifted to weekly lows on light futures volume during Asia session and European morning. Curve flatter with long-end yields lower by ~1.7bp into early U.S. session. 10-year yields lower by ~2bps just below 0.60%, extending the weekly decline despite gains for U.S. equities during first week of 2Q results reporting, to more than 4bp; 2s10s and 5s30s curves each flatter by ~1bp; U.K. 10-year lags U.S. by 3bp, German 10- year by ~1bp. Futures volumes were around 70% of 20-day average levels as of 7am ET.
In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for a third week of declines as Treasuries advanced for a second week. The euro gained on the day despite a slide in European stocks after Germany said big differences remain in EU recovery fund talks. The pound steadied yet headed for the biggest weekly drop among G-10 currencies, weighed down by weak economic data that fueled expectations of another interest-rate cut by the Bank of England. The yen was up fractionally at 107.13 per dollar and Sweden’s high-flying crown was up again.
In commodities trading, oil prices were little changed with Brent down 0.25% at $43.26 per barrel and U.S. crude down 0.15% at $40.87. The two benchmark crudes had fallen 1% on Thursday too after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed to trim their record supply cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2 million bpd, starting in August.
Looking at the day ahead now, as well as the aforementioned European Council meeting, we’ll get US housing starts and building permits for June, and the preliminary University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for July. Central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, ECB Vice President de Guindos, and Executive Board member Schnabel, while earnings releases to watch out for include BlackRock, Danaher and Honeywell International.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,201.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.07% to 371.86
MXAP up 0.3% to 164.36
MXAPJ up 0.7% to 540.35
Nikkei down 0.3% to 22,696.42
Topix down 0.3% to 1,573.85
Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 25,089.17
Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,214.13
Sensex up 0.6% to 36,694.16
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 6,033.63
Kospi up 0.8% to 2,201.19
German 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to -0.468%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.1404
Italian 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 1.06%
Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.402%
Brent futures down 0.8% to $43.01/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,801.84
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 96.18
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
ECB policy makers didn’t agree on whether they expect to use the full amount of their 1.35 trillion-euro ($1.5 trillion) pandemic emergency purchase program when they met Thursday, despite President Christine Lagarde subsequently saying that’s likely, according to people familiar with the discussions
U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to announce more than 3 billion pounds ($3.8 billion) of extra funding to help prepare the U.K. National Health Service for the risk of a second peak in coronavirus cases
Florida and Texas reported record numbers of virus deaths. Brazil surpassed 2 million cases as the virus spreads in the country’s poorer, remote areas. Dr. Anthony Fauci said many states reopened too quickly and called for “a time out” yet said he expects results for a clinical trial on monoclonal antibodies by late summer or early fall
Nearly two-thirds of health-care industry leaders anticipate the coronavirus pandemic will continue into the second half of 2021 or longer as hopes for a vaccine this year dwindle
U.S. central bankers still have some time to ponder how to best update their public guidance on the likely future path of interest rates and whether they need to deploy a yield-curve control strategy, New York Fed President John Williams said
Oil held losses in Asia after a U.S. jobs report cast doubt on the strength of the demand recovery in the world’s largest economy
A copper-supply crunch that’s sent prices soaring as producers scale back operations on coronavirus restrictions could still worsen, according to Rio Tinto Group, one of the world’s top miners
Asian equity markets were somewhat mixed as efforts to recoup some of the prior day’s losses heading into the weekend were fettered by the record increases in coronavirus numbers in US and abroad which continued to fuel second wave fears. ASX 200 (+0.3%) traded indecisively with notable weakness seen in tech names after similar underperformance of the sector stateside and after Victoria state suffered a record increase of coronavirus cases which surged by 428 vs. Prev. 317, while Rio Tinto shares failed to sustain the opening momentum that had been spurred by stronger quarterly production and shipment updates. Nonetheless, downside for the Australian benchmark is only marginal as the index just about kept afloat of the 6000 level and the Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) swung between gains and losses as sentiment navigated through a wavy currency. Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) both initially outperformed after nursing the pain from recent heavy selling that resulted to losses in the mainland of about 5% yesterday, which China downplayed as a normal market adjustment, while a firm liquidity effort by the PBoC also contributed to the early improved tone in which it provided a total weekly net injection of CNY 330bln. However, the optimism in for Chinese bourses gradually faded amid the lingering doubts regarding the economic recovery. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher alongside the indecision in the region and with the BoJ also present in the market for over JPY 1.2tln of JGBs heavily concentrated in 1yr-10yr maturities.
Top Asian News
Reliance Said to Plow Billions From Stake Sales Into Debt Funds
China’s Manic Traders Test the Communist Party’s Grip on Markets
Hong Kong Gives Nod to Asia’s Biggest Healthcare Listing in 2020
European equites (Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%) have staged a relatively mixed performance thus far with price action broadly contained as participants await updates from the EU Council summit in Brussels. On which, the bar for expectations has been tempered somewhat by comments on arrival from the likes of Dutch PM Rutte who assigns a less than 50% chance of a breakthrough by Sunday, whilst German Chancellor Merkel has cautioned that large differences remains and negotiations will be very tough. The DAX (+0.1%) is faring slightly better than its peers amid support for the auto sector after Daimler’s (+4.8%) prelim Q2 release revealed a smaller decline in EBIT than feared with the Co. also looking to make circa EUR 2bln in cost savings. Furthermore for the index, reports note that Deutsche Boerse could propose new rules that would enable a quick expulsion of companies from the DAX if firms file for insolvency. If adopted, Wirecard (-7.2%) could leave the index in August. Elsewhere, the bulk of the corporate updates this morning have come from Scandinavia with earnings from the likes of Ericsson (+10.4%), Saab (+2.8%), Volvo (+1.1%), Danske Bank (+1.1%), Assa Abloy (-2.8%) and Electrolux (-5.8%) to name but a few. From a broader sectoral standpoint, asides from autos, the tech sector is faring better than peers amid upside in chip names such as Infineon (+2.7%) and STMicroelectronics (+3.1%). To the downside, losers include banks, travel & leisure and insurance names.
Top European News
Ericsson Jumps After Profit Boost From Network Upgrades
ECB Officials Didn’t Agree on If They’ll Use Full Bond Plan
U.K.’s Debt Chief Prefers Going Green Over Borrowing for Century
In FX, the single currency is attempting extend gains above 1.1400 vs the Dollar again having posted a lower high from Wednesday’s circa 1.1450 peak amidst post-ECB reports about divergence among GC members on the PEPP that President Lagarde assumes will be used in full. However, the latest retreat seems more to do with apprehension ahead of the EU leaders meeting to try and resolve differences over the Recovery Fund and Budget, as participants continue to play down prospects of reaching an agreement by the end of the 2-day Summit.
USD – The Greenback is mixed against G10 counterparts beyond the Euro, and the restraint is highlighted by the confined 96.331-083 DXY range compared to yesterday’s 96.404-95.890 extremes on the back of fluctuating risk sentiment and largely upbeat US data dampened by the ongoing increase in COVID-19 infections and fatalities across Sun Belt states in particular. Ahead, housing data and preliminary Michigan sentiment, but the Buck remains driven by the overall tone and equity performance alongside moves in rival currencies.
AUD/NZD/CHF – All benefiting from the aforementioned US Dollar retrenchment, with the Aussie back within striking distance of 0.7000, Kiwi revisiting 0.6550 and Franc holding off sub-0.9450 lows, even though Victoria suffered another record high tally of coronavirus cases and the PBoC bucked the recent trend with a 7.0000+ midpoint Usd/CNY fix overnight (albeit with the onshore Yuan closing back above the psychological level and CNH currently around 6.9970). Conversely, the Nzd will have taken note of a strong rebound in the manufacturing PMI from contraction to expansion following re-opening from lockdown and the Chf has pared some underperformance vs the Eur after sliding to multi-week lows near 1.0800 on Thursday.
GBP/JPY/CAD – Sterling is still grappling with a bearish combination of technical and fundamental factors as Cable loses grip of 1.2600 and returns to the midst of a cluster of hourly MAs ahead of Fib support (at 1.2520), while Eur/Gbp remains elevated close to 0.9100. Elsewhere, the Yen is meandering between 107.36-11 and Loonie even more contained either side of 1.3575 against the backdrop of idling crude prices and subdued risk appetite in the run up to Canadian wholesale trade.
In commodities, WTI & Brent remain subdued this morning with Brent Sep’20 future having given up the USD 43/bbl handle to a low of USD 42.88/bbl as we stand while WTI Aug’20 has tested touted support at USD 40.35/bbl at worst. Overall, performance for the complex is somewhat tentative with European bourses currently trading with little conviction as we await the press statement from the first of the weekends European Council Summit meeting (time TBC); for crude explicitly, the only scheduled event is the weekly Baker Hughes rig count. In terms of spot gold, the precious metal is modestly firmer and has recaptured the USD 1800/oz mark, but only just, as the USD continues to drift lower in this period of tentative trade. Elsewhere, Rio Tinto posted a 1.5% increase in iron ore shipments in their Q2 update as well as commenting that demand out of China for iron ore is rising; although, as most updates have, cautioned that the possibility of second COVID-19 wave could be a headwind.
US Event Calendar
8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.19m, prior 974,000; Building Permits, est. 1.29m, prior 1.22m
10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 79, prior 78.1; Current Conditions, est. 86.8, prior 87.1; Expectations, est. 74, prior 72.3
12:30pm: Former Fed Chairs Yellen and Bernanke Testify to Congress
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
xRisk assets fell back yesterday as weak economic data combined with rising numbers of coronavirus cases dampened investor sentiment. By the end of the session, the S&P 500 had fallen back by -0.34% as technology stocks led the decline with the NASDAQ closing down by a larger -0.73%. European indices traded lower as well following a quiet ECB meeting but ahead of the recovery fund summit today. The STOXX 600 was down -0.47%. In terms of the individual moves, there was a large pullback in the ‘normalisation’ travel trade that we saw on Wednesday. Cruiseliners reversed the previous day’s gains as Norwegian Cruise Line (-15.62%), Carnival (-9.73%), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (-7.57%) were the 3 worst performers in the US index, while the 4th and 6th worst performers were American Airlines (-7.37%) and United Airlines (-5.17%). In Europe, similarly the Travel and Leisure sector led the index lower, falling -2.08% after leading the way the day before. Otherwise, Morgan Stanley (+2.49%) had a strong performance after the bank reported adjusted EPS of $2.04 (vs. $1.14 estimated), though Twitter fell -1.11% after the hack of a number of high-profile accounts the previous evening. NFLX fell over -8% in after-market trading in a rare hiccup for the mega-cap growth stocks after reporting they expected 2.5m new subscribers vs. the 5m that analysts expected. The company announced “growth is slowing as consumers get through the initial shock of Covid and social restrictions.”
Talking of tech, yesterday’s CoTD looked at the remarkable rise of Tesla (up +315% since March) which is now over a third of the combined market cap of the combined US, EU and Japanese auto indices. Since March, Tesla has added just over 8 Fords or 27 Renaults. A bit like Sweden’s virus response this divided opinion in my mailbox with many saying Tesla’s valuation is crazy but some highlighting the potential for their battery operations to be scalable and one response suggesting Elon Musk was a genius. See here for a bonus chart that wasn’t in the original mail on global auto market share. Email Jim-Reid.ThematicResearch@db.com if you want to be added to the direct mailing list of Chart of the Day.
In the absence of any fresh overnight triggers, Asian markets are trading a little mixed this morning with the Nikkei (-0.34%), Shanghai Comp (-0.51%) and Asx (-0.12%) down while the Hang Seng (+0.61%) and Kospi (+0.65%) are up. In Fx, the US dollar index is down -0.10%. Meanwhile, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.27%.
A key piece of data that dampened the mood yesterday was the US initial weekly jobless claims for the week through July 11, which came in at a higher-than expected 1.3m. Although this was the 15th consecutive weekly decline in the numbers, they were down by just -10k on the previous week, which is the smallest decline since the peak was reached back in late March, raising fears that gains in the labour market have stalled as cases numbers have risen across the country. Though the other US data released yesterday struck a more positive tone (more on which below), these were all more backward-looking numbers, that didn’t take into account the latest virus upsurge across numerous states.
Speaking of the coronavirus, yesterday the main headline came from the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre, which said that Russian cyber actors were targeting organisations involved in developing a coronavirus vaccine in the UK, the US and Canada. Their website said that the group known as APT29 that was exploiting organisations, “almost certainly operate as part of Russian intelligence services”. Russia has denied the accusations however.
Meanwhile, in terms of the latest on case numbers, Florida reported a further 4.6% increase yesterday, above the previous 7-day average of 4.4%, along with a record 156 daily deaths. Arizona continued to see a slight slowing in cases, with a 2.5% increase vs. the 2.8% weekly average. The positivity rate remains very elevated at 24.5% though. California had just over 9400 new cases, which is above the recent 7-day average of 8900, while fatalities have ticked up in the state with 118 new deaths in the last 24 hours vs. a 94 7-day average. Texas also saw a 5.5% jump in new cases as against the 7 day average of +3.7% while reported fatalities came in at a record 169 in the last 24 hours as against the 7 day average of 88 per day. Overall US cases rose by 2.5% with nearly 64,000 per day over the past week, which is twice as much as the first peak seen in early April. Amidst rising case numbers in the state, the Republican National Committee said that they would be scaling back the Republican National Convention, which is due to be held in the state next month. Arkansas and Colorado were added to the ever growing list of states requiring masks in public spaces. Texas Governor Abbott warned attendants at the Texas Republican Convention yesterday that the recent outbreak may leave him with few options outside of shutting down the second most populous U.S. state. This comes as Pennsylvania rolled back their own reopening yesterday, shuttering nightclubs and lowering occupancy across bars and restaurants. Overnight, Brazil has surpassed the 2m mark of confirmed cases with confirmed fatalities at 76,688. As ever see our table in the pdf of this report.
Meanwhile, Australia’s most populous state, New South Wales, has tightened restrictions for gatherings and venues, including clubs and cafes as the state fears undetected cases of community transmission could spread rapidly. All restaurants, clubs and cafes will be limited to bookings of a maximum 10 people and restricted to one person per four-square-meters. Meanwhile, Victoria reported a fresh record of new cases at 428 in the past 24 hours. Tokyo’s Governor also said that today’s new cases are expected to be at the same level as yesterday (286) without giving specific figures. Elsewhere India has become the third country to cross the 1m confirmed cases mark.
Separately in Israel, where cases have also risen sharply, Channel 12 reported that senior ministers were in favour of returning to a full lockdown at weekends. Also Germany announced that they were imposing some travel rules on citizens moving within the country as summer vacation gets underway. Primarily the rules require those coming from a ‘hotspot’ show proof of recent negative testing and those coming from risk areas abroad quarantine at home for 14-days.
Here in the UK, Bloomberg has reported overnight that PM Johnson is set to announce more than GBP 3bn of extra funding to help prepare the National Health Service for the risk of a second peak in coronavirus cases. Meanwhile the PM will announce today plans to ramp up antigen testing for the virus to 500,000 a day by the end of October to boost its test and trace program in preparation for the testing capacity needed for the winter. PM’s office said late yesterday that, “Tomorrow, he will set out a broad package of measures to protect against both a possible second wave, and to ease winter pressures and keep the public safe.”
The other main news yesterday came from the ECB, where President Lagarde struck a decidedly cautious note on the recovery, and said that “ample monetary stimulus remains necessary to support the economic recovery and to safeguard medium-term price stability”. Though monetary policy was left unchanged, Lagarde notably pushed back against the idea that the ECB wouldn’t use the full €1.35tn PEPP envelope, saying that the ECB’s baseline was that they would use it in full barring positive data surprises. This isn’t just for market stability, but also as a way to ease the monetary policy stance. For more, see our Europe economists’ views here. Sovereign bonds rallied across the continent in response to the press conference, and 10yr yields on French (-1.7bps), Italian (-1.4bps) and Spanish (-2.1bps) debt all fell to their lowest levels in 4 months.
We also heard from some Fed governors yesterday who shared President Lagarde’s sentiment, painting a wary picture of the economy. First we heard from New York Federal Reserve Bank President Williams, who acknowledged that the efforts of the central bank “over the next few years…needs to be making sure that we can get back to a really strong, robust economy with sustainable, strong sustainable growth and inflation at our 2% goal.” While also saying that it was not the time to even think of ‘exit strategies”, as the economy is still in a very uncertain situation. This was also the opinion of Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Bostic, who noted that the lack of clarity on fiscal policy may be affecting sentiment in the region as case numbers increase across the country, citing business leaders and consumers in the region. He noted that, “Real-time data that we are getting today is really suggesting there may be a leveling off in terms of level of business activity, in terms of the amount of jobs that are being returned to the economy.” Lastly, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Evans said he saw the U.S. recovering its previous peak in output “in middle or late 2022”, and that he is “looking at the end of this year for the unemployment rate to be 9-9.5%.” On the popular topic of YCC, Evans acknowledged that there was a potential use for it, but that he was undecided and that he is a big advocate of forward guidance and strategies that convince the public that the Fed can fulfill its dual mandate. Overall central bankers continue to provide a lukewarm reading of the economy, but a willingness to continue supporting it in whatever ways it can.
Today all attention will shift to the special European Council summit, with EU leaders gathering this morning in Brussels to discuss the proposed recovery fund along with the EU’s long-term budget. As a reminder from yesterday, our view here at DB is that although an agreement is still possible this weekend, it would now be a positive surprise, and there’s no indication so far of the differences of opinion between the member states having been bridged yet. The meeting gets started at 10:00 Brussels time, though is scheduled to continue into Saturday, so its likely the final news of what’s happened will only be known over the weekend.
Here in the UK, gilt yields fell to another record low yesterday, with 10yr yields down a further -2.7bps to 0.14%. It comes amidst increasing speculation that the Bank of England might be forced into further rate cuts, potentially even into negative territory. Meanwhile yesterday’s labour market release from the ONS said that early indicators for June suggested that the number of employees on payrolls were down around -650k compared with March, although the unemployment rate for the 3 months to May remained at 3.9% as many of the people out of work were not looking for work, and hence weren’t counted as unemployed. That said, the total number of weekly hours worked fell to 877k in the three months to May, their lowest level since 1997, while more up-to-date data on vacancies showed them falling to 333k in the three months to June, which is below their lowest level after the financial crisis.
Finally on the US, the more backward-looking data for June was more positive than the weekly jobless claims, with retail sales increasing by +7.5% (vs. +5.0% expected), and May’s growth being revised higher. Furthermore, the continuing claims for the week through July 4 (the week before the initial claims) fell to 17.338m (vs. 17.5m expected), and the insured unemployment rate fell to 11.9%. As in Europe, 10yr Treasury yields ended the session down -1.3bps at 0.617%.
To the day ahead now, and as well as the aforementioned European Council meeting, we’ll get the final Euro Area inflation reading for June, US housing starts and building permits for June, and the preliminary University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for July. Central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, ECB Vice President de Guindos, and Executive Board member Schnabel, while earnings releases to watch out for include BlackRock, Danaher and Honeywell International.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ZDTfKl Tyler Durden
It is a truth universally acknowledged, pretty much, that not every Charlize Theron movie deserves to have Charlize Theron in it. Nor did Theron herself deserve to be stuck in such unworthy product as Woody Allen’s The Curse of the Jade Scorpion (2001) or The Last Face (2017), a straight-to-TV item directed by her onetime love interest Sean Penn. And let us say as little as possible about the witless Waking Up in Reno (2002), in which she played a gum-chewing Dixie chick named Candy.
But these strike-outs are anomalies among the nearly 50 movies Theron has made over the course of a career that is now in its 25th year. In this time, she has proved herself an actor of serious depth, winning an Oscar for the 2003 Monster, a nomination for the 2005 North Country, and plaudits for such singular films as Young Adult and Tully. At the same time, she has happily signed up for excursions into fantasy (the evil queen in Snow White and the Huntsman) and big-deal sci-fi (Ridley Scott’s Prometheus). In addition, she has also established herself as an A-list action hero in movies like George Miller’s thunderous Mad Max: Fury Road, the Cold War spy film Atomic Blonde, and now a Netflix feature, The Old Guard.
Like Atomic Blonde, the new film is adapted from a graphic novel, this one created by Greg Rucka (who also wrote the movie’s screenplay) and illustrator Leandro Fernández. Also like Atomic Blonde, the film version doesn’t quite work.
Theron plays Andy, the leader of a quartet of immortal warriors who frankly wouldn’t mind dying. (“I’ve been here before,” she says, faced with another hairy situation. “Over and over again. I’m just so tired of it.”) This world-weariness was a resonant theme in Rucka’s comic, but in the film it’s been diluted with a mopey humanitarian melancholy. (“We’ve done nothing,” Andy says. “The world isn’t getting better, it’s getting worse.”) This is fine and all, real-world-wise, but it makes the movie a trudge at times.
The story has a promising pulp texture, though (the sequel suggested at the movie’s conclusion could be fun); and director Gina Prince-Bythewood, who’s made her name with romances like Love & Basketball and Beyond the Lights, brings off the many action scenes with considerable verve. She also does a nice job with a flashback to the long-ago fate of an early Andy associate named Quynh (Van Veronica Ngo), which is gruesome in an especially colorful way.
Andy’s un-killable three-man team—Booker (Matthias Schoenaerts), Joe (Marwan Kenzari) and Nicky (Lica Marinelli)—has combat credentials that date back to the Crusades, and Andy herself has been around for several millennia (her ancient name is Andromache of Scythia). As the story begins, they’ve been hired by an ex-CIA operative named Copley (Chiwetel Ejiofor) to fly to South Sudan and rescue a group of little girls who’ve been kidnapped by child-slavers. This turns out to be a setup, though, and footage of the team’s ambush, slaughter and instant revivification is uploaded for use by a nefarious young pharma mogul named Merrick (Harry Melling, onetime Dudley Dursley of the Harry Potter films), who wants to extract the secret of their immortality for commercial purposes.
While Andy and company are contemplating this predicament, we’re taken to Afghanistan to meet a U.S. Army sergeant named Nile (Kiki Layne, of If Beale Street Could Talk). Nile is unaware that she, too, is an immortal warrior (until her throat is slashed by a terrorist and the wound fades away like a mild cough). But before long, she’s recruited to Andy’s team, and they’re all off to London to confront the creepy Merrick and his many murderous thugs.
The action scenes here don’t have the wild style of the ones in Atomic Blonde (but then that movie was directed by David Leitch, a veteran of the John Wick films). However, Theron wades into them with full commitment, and as always she’s a pleasure to watch. I do wish someone would’ve explained the exact nature of these people’s immortality—it turns out they can die, but generally just don’t, or whatever. If there’s a sequel, this opaque plot point should be high on any list of things crying out to be cleared up.
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7/17/1862: Congress enacts the Confiscation Act, which empowers the government to seize the property of the rebels. The Supreme Court considered the constitutionality of that law in The Confiscation Cases (1873).
The Chase Court (1873)
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It is a truth universally acknowledged, pretty much, that not every Charlize Theron movie deserves to have Charlize Theron in it. Nor did Theron herself deserve to be stuck in such unworthy product as Woody Allen’s The Curse of the Jade Scorpion (2001) or The Last Face (2017), a straight-to-TV item directed by her onetime love interest Sean Penn. And let us say as little as possible about the witless Waking Up in Reno (2002), in which she played a gum-chewing Dixie chick named Candy.
But these strike-outs are anomalies among the nearly 50 movies Theron has made over the course of a career that is now in its 25th year. In this time, she has proved herself an actor of serious depth, winning an Oscar for the 2003 Monster, a nomination for the 2005 North Country, and plaudits for such singular films as Young Adult and Tully. At the same time, she has happily signed up for excursions into fantasy (the evil queen in Snow White and the Huntsman) and big-deal sci-fi (Ridley Scott’s Prometheus). In addition, she has also established herself as an A-list action hero in movies like George Miller’s thunderous Mad Max: Fury Road, the Cold War spy film Atomic Blonde, and now a Netflix feature, The Old Guard.
Like Atomic Blonde, the new film is adapted from a graphic novel, this one created by Greg Rucka (who also wrote the movie’s screenplay) and illustrator Leandro Fernández. Also like Atomic Blonde, the film version doesn’t quite work.
Theron plays Andy, the leader of a quartet of immortal warriors who frankly wouldn’t mind dying. (“I’ve been here before,” she says, faced with another hairy situation. “Over and over again. I’m just so tired of it.”) This world-weariness was a resonant theme in Rucka’s comic, but in the film it’s been diluted with a mopey humanitarian melancholy. (“We’ve done nothing,” Andy says. “The world isn’t getting better, it’s getting worse.”) This is fine and all, real-world-wise, but it makes the movie a trudge at times.
The story has a promising pulp texture, though (the sequel suggested at the movie’s conclusion could be fun); and director Gina Prince-Bythewood, who’s made her name with romances like Love & Basketball and Beyond the Lights, brings off the many action scenes with considerable verve. She also does a nice job with a flashback to the long-ago fate of an early Andy associate named Quynh (Van Veronica Ngo), which is gruesome in an especially colorful way.
Andy’s un-killable three-man team—Booker (Matthias Schoenaerts), Joe (Marwan Kenzari) and Nicky (Lica Marinelli)—has combat credentials that date back to the Crusades, and Andy herself has been around for several millennia (her ancient name is Andromache of Scythia). As the story begins, they’ve been hired by an ex-CIA operative named Copley (Chiwetel Ejiofor) to fly to South Sudan and rescue a group of little girls who’ve been kidnapped by child-slavers. This turns out to be a setup, though, and footage of the team’s ambush, slaughter and instant revivification is uploaded for use by a nefarious young pharma mogul named Merrick (Harry Melling, onetime Dudley Dursley of the Harry Potter films), who wants to extract the secret of their immortality for commercial purposes.
While Andy and company are contemplating this predicament, we’re taken to Afghanistan to meet a U.S. Army sergeant named Nile (Kiki Layne, of If Beale Street Could Talk). Nile is unaware that she, too, is an immortal warrior (until her throat is slashed by a terrorist and the wound fades away like a mild cough). But before long, she’s recruited to Andy’s team, and they’re all off to London to confront the creepy Merrick and his many murderous thugs.
The action scenes here don’t have the wild style of the ones in Atomic Blonde (but then that movie was directed by David Leitch, a veteran of the John Wick films). However, Theron wades into them with full commitment, and as always she’s a pleasure to watch. I do wish someone would’ve explained the exact nature of these people’s immortality—it turns out they can die, but generally just don’t, or whatever. If there’s a sequel, this opaque plot point should be high on any list of things crying out to be cleared up.
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