Roubini: Revisiting The White Swans Of 2020

Roubini: Revisiting The White Swans Of 2020

Tyler Durden

Wed, 07/29/2020 – 17:05

Authored by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate,

In February, I warned that any number of foreseeable crises – “white swans” – could trigger a massive global disturbance this year. I noted that:

“… the US and Iran have already had a military confrontation that will likely soon escalate; China is in the grip of a viral outbreak that could become a global pandemic; cyberwarfare is ongoing; major holders of US Treasuries are pursuing diversification strategies; the Democratic presidential primary is exposing rifts in the opposition to Trump and already casting doubt on vote-counting processes; rivalries between the US and four revisionist powers are escalating; and the real-world costs of climate change and other environmental trends are mounting.”

Since February, the COVID-19 outbreak in China did indeed explode into a pandemic, vindicating those of us who warned early on that the coronavirus would have severe consequences for the global economy. Owing to massive stimulus policies, the Greater Recession of 2020 has not become a Greater Depression. But the global economy remains fragile, and even if a V-shaped recovery from highly depressed output and demand were to occur, it might last for only a quarter or two, given the low level of economic activity.

Alternatively, with so much uncertainty, risk aversion and deleveraging on the part of corporations, households, and even entire countries could result in a more anemic U-shaped recovery over time. But if the recent surge of COVID-19 cases in the United States and other countries is not controlled, and if a second wave occurs this fall and winter before a safe and effective vaccine is discovered, the economy would likely experience a W-shaped double-dip recession. And with such deep fragilities in the global economy, one cannot rule out an L-shaped Greater Depression by the middle of the decade.

Moreover, as I predicted in February, the rivalry between the US and four revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – has accelerated in the run-up to November’s US presidential election. There is growing concern that these countries are using cyber warfare to interfere with the election and deepen America’s partisan divisions. A close outcome will almost certainly lead to accusations (by either side) of “election-rigging,” and potentially to civil disorder.

The COVID-19 crisis has also severely exacerbated the Sino-American cold war regarding trade, technology, data, investment, and currency matters. Geopolitical tensions are escalating dangerously in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the East and South China Seas. Even if neither China nor the US wants a military confrontation, increased brinkmanship could lead to a military accident that spins out of control. My warning in February that the Sino-American cold war could turn hot has become more salient since then.

In the Middle East, I expected that Iran would escalate tensions with the US and its allies – especially Israel and Saudi Arabia. But, given Trump’s increasingly evident weakness in the polls, the Iranians have evidently opted for a policy of relative restraint, in the hope that a victory for Joe Biden will lead the US to rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal and loosen US sanctions. But, sensing that its strategic window is closing, Israel has reportedly been launching covert attacks on a range of Iranian military and nuclear targets (presumably with the Trump administration’s tacit support). As a result, talk of Middle East-related “October surprise” is increasing.

I also raised concerns that the Trump administration might use sanctions to seize and freeze China’s, Russia’s, and other rivals’ US Treasury holdings, prompting a sell-off of Treasuries as these countries shift to a geopolitically safer asset like gold. This fear, together with the risk that large monetized fiscal deficits will stoke inflation, has since caused a spike in gold prices, which have risen by 23% this year, and by more than 50% since late 2018. The US is indeed weaponizing the greenback, which has recently weakened as US rivals and allies alike seek to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets.

Environmental concerns are also mounting. In East Africa, desertification has created ideal conditions for biblical-scale locust swarms that are destroying crops and livelihoods. Recent research suggests that crop failures due to rising temperatures and desertification will drive hundreds of millions of people from hot tropical zones toward the US, Europe, and other temperate regions in the coming decades. And other recent studies warn that climate “tipping points” such as the collapse of major ice sheets in Antarctica or Greenland could lead to a sudden catastrophic sea-level rise.

The links between climate change and pandemics are also becoming clearer. As humans increasingly encroach on wildlife habitats, they are coming into more frequent contact with bats and other zoonotic disease vectors. And there is growing concern that as the Siberian permafrost melts, long-frozen deadly viruses will resurface and quickly spread around the world like COVID-19 did.

Why are financial markets blissfully ignoring these risks? After falling by 30-40% at the beginning of the pandemic, many equity markets have recovered most of their losses, owing to the massive fiscal-policy response and hopes for an imminent COVID-19 vaccine. The V-shaped recovery in markets indicates that investors are anticipating a V-shaped recovery in the economy.

The problem is that what was true in February remains true today: the economy could still quickly be derailed by another economic, financial, geopolitical, or public-health tail risk, many of which have persisted and, in some cases, grown more acute during the current crisis. Markets are not very good at pricing political and geopolitical – let alone environmental – tail risks, because their probability is difficult to assess.

But, given the developments of the last few months, we should not be surprised if one or more white swans emerge to shake the global economy again before the year is out.

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Masks Aren’t Enough: Dr. Fauci Says People Should “Probably Use Eye Shields” To Protect Against COVID-19

Masks Aren’t Enough: Dr. Fauci Says People Should “Probably Use Eye Shields” To Protect Against COVID-19

Tyler Durden

Wed, 07/29/2020 – 16:45

Americans can’t seem to handle wearing masks to stop the coronavirus. Now, imagine if the CDC changed its guidelines to also call for “eye protection” like medical goggles to stop the spread of the virus (and protect your neighbor, as well as yourself).

Well, Dr. Fauci is apparently preparing to do just that.

During an interview with ABC News, Dr. Fauci said Wednesday that he may soon advise Americans to wear ‘eye protection’ to avoid being infected by COVID-19 as deaths along the Sun Belt climb to record highs.

“If you have goggles or an eye shield, you should use it,” the doctor said, before adding that it’s not universally recommended, “but if you really want to be complete, you should probably use it if you can,” he said.

Watch a clip from the interview below

Anybody listening to this would probably have a litany of questions for the doctor. But instead of trying to clarify this, he just said that Americans should aim to “protect as many mucosal surfaces as possible”. Very informative, indeed.

Moving on, Dr. Fauci said the pre-enrollment for Moderna’s final clinical trial for a possible COVID-19 vaccine includes 19% black and 19% hispanic participants across 89 sites throughout the country.

“Now we want to get that and even more” because of how the virus has disproportionately affected minority communities with worse outcomes and higher death rates, Dr. Fauci said.

So now clinical trials are potentially being delayed so scientists can pander to the equality warriors: because shouldn’t these vaccines work the same regardless of race?

But circling back to Fauci’s latest recommendation: anybody who has worn a mask with glasses or sunglasses has probably experienced how they fog up repeatedly due to an individuals breath being directed upward. So anybody who follows this advice might find it difficult to see in public. And that could create some serious problems of its own.

And if we’re trying to cover as many mucous membranes as possible, why not simply go all-in?

Despite a growing body of research suggesting that aerosolized particles can linger in the air longer than previously believed, the WHO hasn’t done much to change its guidance:

Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 can occur during medical procedures that generate aerosols (“aerosol generating procedures”).(12) WHO, together with the scientific community, has been actively discussing and evaluating whether SARS-CoV-2 may also spread through aerosols in the absence of aerosol generating procedures, particularly in indoor settings with poor ventilation.

 

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12,000 U.S. Troops Will Leave Germany

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Twelve thousand U.S. troops will be leaving Germany, although 5,600 troops will stay in other parts of Europe, including Italy and Belgium, while 6,400 troops are coming back to the U.S. (although some of them may still do rotations in Europe, according to Defense Secretary Mark Esper). As President Trump said to reporters outside the White House, “They’ve taken advantage of us for many years. We don’t want to be the suckers anymore.”

Twenty-four thousand U.S. troops will remain in Germany, and the specific time table for any of the troops actually leaving is not yet clear. As Reuters reports, “U.S. officials stressed that only a relatively small number of advanced units would move anytime soon. The rest of the troop movements would take years to fully implement, in part given the potentially billions of dollars in additional cost.” The U.S. is, at the same time, engaging deeper with plans for more troops and new bases in Poland.

Germany itself has spent over the past decade about a billion dollars related to the costs of our troops being there, though the U.S. still spends more on defense than all other 29 NATO allies combined, and Germany is now spending only about 1.38 percent of its GDP on defense, compared to the U.S.’s 3.4 percent.

This plan to move troops out of Germany did not come out of the blue; Trump had announced last month his intention to move what was then announced as 10,000 troops from the NATO ally, largely because he’s peeved at them for not spending up to 2 percent of their GDP on their own defense.  

The American ambassador in Germany, Emily Haber, learned about these plans last month through the media, she told NPR. Congress immediately began griping about the plan, with Sen. Mitt Romney (R–Utah) announcing plans to freeze our troop numbers in Germany via an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act this year. He had Trump allies, but defense hawks, such as Sens. Lindsey Graham (R–S.C.) and Marco Rubio (R–Fla.) as cosponsors, but the amendment never came to a vote.

The Democratic House didn’t like the idea, either. As Defense News reported at the time, “House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D–Wash.), said…the plan seemed strategically unsound and that Congress should block the administration until it makes its case.” Various German states began lobbying Congress to stop Trump as soon as his plans became clear. Germany has been home to the largest number of U.S. troops in Europe. Germany’s defense minister reacted to the initial announcement weeks ago by reminding America that Russia is still a threat and that U.S. troops are still needed in Europe to pivot to problems in Africa or the Middle East.

Sen. James Inhofe (R–Okla.), chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, was sold on the troop withdrawal plan but as of last week believed it would take “months to plan and years to execute.” While he may have been wrong on the “plan” part, the “execute” part is still uncertain. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has already announced he’d rethink such withdrawal plans if elected.

Trump has remained mostly alone in Washington establishment circles in his belief that our current force structures around the globe aren’t sacrosanct.

Defense Priorities, a right-leaning group promoting a more restrained and limited U.S. military presence around the world, said in an emailed statement from Senior Fellow Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis, Ret. that “[t]he U.S. force posture in Europe continues to reflect Cold War dynamics that no longer exist…Europe enjoys a high degree of safety and is largely wealthy and technologically advanced. Russia, whose power has declined substantially since its Soviet days, is mostly a threat to its smaller immediate neighbors. Germany, the continent’s leading economy, is set to rebound rapidly from the current pandemic, and has long had the means to contribute more to continental security….Troops withdrawn from Germany should be returned to the U.S. rather than reshuffled among other allies. The era of great power competition demands that U.S. allies be capable partners, not security dependents.”

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Kansas Knife Statute Held Unconstitutionally Vague

From a Kansas Supreme Court majority opinion (by Justice Stegall) earlier this month in State v. Harris (a 4-3 decision):

In Kansas, it is a crime for a convicted felon to possess a knife[, defined] … as “a dagger, dirk, switchblade, stiletto, straight-edged razor or any other dangerous or deadly cutting instrument of like character.” … [F]iguring out when an object is a “knife” because it is a “dangerous or deadly cutting instrument of like character” is not as easy as one might suppose. See, e.g., Crocodile Dundee (Rimfire Films 1986) (“That’s not a knife … That’s a knife.”).

Indeed, no one has argued the statute makes it illegal for convicted felons to possess the utensil commonly used in kitchens to butter bread or slice vegetables. But does it? After all, it is a cutting instrument, is universally referred to as a knife, and it could conceivably be dangerous. Today we are tasked with deciding whether the uncertainty in the residual phrase in [the statute] is so great that the law is impermissibly and unconstitutionally vague. We conclude it is….

Christopher M. Harris is a convicted felon. When he and another man got into an altercation on a Wichita street, Harris pulled out a pocketknife. A police cruiser was in the area and the officer turned his spotlight onto the men. The officer observed Harris dropping an object which turned out to be the pocketknife.

The State charged Harris with aggravated assault, criminal possession of a weapon by a convicted felon, and criminal use of a weapon. At his jury trial, Harris testified he felt in fear of his life and opened the knife only for protection. The pocketknife had a 3 and 1/2-inch blade with serrations. A jury convicted Harris of criminal possession of a weapon and acquitted him of the other two charges….

Most litigation concerning vagueness in statutes has tended to focus on the due process elements of the vagueness doctrine. Does the statute fairly put people on notice as to the conduct proscribed? Are the words used common and understandable enough to allow persons of ordinary intelligence to easily grasp their meaning? This hurdle is often described as requiring no more than a “‘commonsense determination of fundamental fairness.'” … And when the analysis is confined to these questions, the rationale of the Court of Appeals panel—as well as the dissent—[rejecting the vagueness challenge] is understandable. The statute bars possession of knives by convicted felons. A pocketknife is a knife. People of ordinary intelligence are on notice as to what conduct the statute restricts, and the demands of fundamental fairness are met.

But our focus today is on the second hurdle—the one intended to ensure that the Legislature has not impermissibly delegated its authority to write the laws to officials or actors in either the executive or judicial branches of government…. The primary problem with a law that fails to “provide explicit standards” for enforcement … is that such laws “invite arbitrary power.” That is, these laws “threaten to transfer legislative power to” police, prosecutors, judges, and juries, which leaves “them the job of shaping a vague statute’s contours through their enforcement decisions.”

Because an impermissible delegation of legislative power will often lead to arbitrary enforcement based on subjective or even prejudicial criteria, the United States Supreme Court has indicated that the “more important” prong of the “vagueness doctrine ‘is not actual notice, but the other principal element of the doctrine—the requirement that a legislature establish minimal guidelines to govern law enforcement.’ [Without these], a criminal statute may permit ‘a standardless sweep [that] allows policemen, prosecutors, and juries to pursue their personal predilections.’ [Citations omitted.]” See also United States v. Davis (2019) (“Vague statutes threaten to hand responsibility for defining crimes to relatively unaccountable police, prosecutors, and judges, eroding the people’s ability to oversee the creation of the laws they are expected to abide.”); United States v. Reese (1875) (“It would certainly be dangerous if the legislature could set a net large enough to catch all possible offenders, and leave it to the courts to step inside and say who could be rightfully detained, and who should be set at large. This would, to some extent, substitute the judicial for the legislative department of the government.”).

It is the very overbreadth of such laws that renders them impermissibly vague. It is not necessarily because they are ambiguous on their face—an overbroad law can be very clear. The problem, in fact, may be amplified by clarity. If a law “makes everyone” a violator, then “prosecutors and the police [will] both define the law on the street and decide who has violated it.” This is a world in which “almost anyone can be arrested for something.” Nieves v. Bartlett (2019) (Gorsuch, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part).

It is appropriate to call such clear-but-overbroad laws “vague” because by failing to provide adequate enforcement guidelines, the Legislature has left it up to other actors to give the law teeth through their enforcement decisions and actions. As Justice Robert Jackson once wrote, without clear legal standards to guide us, we human beings “usually end up … condemning all that we personally disapprove and for no better reason than that we disapprove it.”

Within constitutional boundaries, legislators have this liberty. This is by design. Prosecutors, judges, law enforcement officers, and juries—that is, actors constrained by the law—do not have such freedom. This, too, is by design. Whether or not a person is arrested, charged, and convicted for violating a law must depend more on objective and discernable legal rules than on the mere discretion, guesswork, or whim of government officials. See Davis (“Only the people’s elected representatives in the legislature are authorized to ‘make an act a crime.'”)….

Today’s case gives us a textbook example of the … enforcement guesswork that can result from a vague law. The statute makes it a crime for Harris to possess a weapon. A weapon “means a firearm or … a dagger, dirk, switchblade, stiletto, straight-edged razor or any other dangerous or deadly cutting instrument of like character.” It is undisputed that Harris did not possess a firearm, a dagger, a dirk, a switchblade, a stiletto, or a straight-edged razor. In these circumstances, enforcement officials must ask, what exactly is a dangerous cutting instrument of like character? We are unable to discern a sufficiently objective standard of enforcement in this language. Instead, we are left with the subjective judgment of the enforcement agencies and actors. A pair of scissors? Maybe. A safety razor blade? Perhaps. A box cutter? Probably, but would that decision be driven by an objective rule or a historically contingent fear of box cutters?

The dissent chides us for reciting these hypothetical examples, though in doing so it issues its own subjective interpretation of what really counts as a knife. The dissent goes so far as to attempt to distinguish between the relative deadliness of the cutting edges on a box cutter (prohibited) and a pair of scissors (not prohibited). But the statutory language at issue—”dangerous or deadly cutting instruments of like character”—does not permit such fine distinctions….

[A] legislative enactment … has impermissibly delegated legislative power to the executive and judicial branches. Thus, we hold that the residual clause in K.S.A. 2019 Supp. 21-6304 is unconstitutionally vague….

From Justice Biles’ dissent:

The “pocketknife” in this case features a sharp, serrated blade, 3 and 1/2 inches long, that folds back into its handle. It is about 7 inches long fully extended. And even though the oversized bowie knife of Crocodile Dundee movie fame dwarfs it by comparison, it cannot reasonably be mistaken as something outside the foreseeable statutory meaning of “knife” in a measure designed to keep convicted felons from possessing a weapon…. I dissent because the majority’s decision inappropriately conjures facts not supported by the record, while improperly drifting past the undisputed facts in favor of hypotheticals. And by doing this, the majority imposes too strict of a standard on the Legislature’s ability to formulate criminal laws by now requiring “an explicit and objective standard of enforcement.”

That said, Christopher Harris may still prevail. In my view, he is entitled to pursue the mistake-of-law defense denied to him by the district court. I would reverse his conviction on that basis and return this case to the district court for a new trial….

The directive to consider a statute’s vagueness in the actual context of the facts should control. Courts decide whether a statute is vague as applied to the particular facts at issue because a litigant who engages in clearly proscribed conduct cannot complain about a law’s vagueness as applied to someone else’s conduct….

Analyzing K.S.A. 2019 Supp. 21-6304(c)(1) in light of the facts in Harris’ case reinforces our two traditional analytical polestars: (1) the statute is sufficiently clear to have informed him it was unlawful to possess his knife, and (2) the statute is sufficiently clear to stave off any contention that authorities arbitrarily prosecuted him for having it….

The criminal-possession statute makes clear not all objects with a blade are prohibited. It provides instead that “‘[k]nife’ means a dagger, dirk, switchblade, stiletto, straight-edged razor or any other dangerous or deadly cutting instrument of like character.” This statutory description supplants the term’s ordinary meaning. And the phrase with which we are concerned—”dangerous or deadly cutting instruments of like character” is given understandable dimension by the five listed items that precede it—dagger, dirk, switchblade, stiletto, and straight-edged razor.

When the Legislature decided to use the word “means” in defining “knife,” it made that definition both complete and exclusive. And nothing can be added or deleted by interpretation. So the majority’s hypothetical examples (“[a] pair of scissors and [a] safety razor blade”) would be excluded from the Legislature’s restrictive definition of “knife.” Similarly, and as the majority seems to concede, its box cutter example may very well fit within the restrictive definition of “knife.”

Nevertheless, the five descriptors provided are easily and reasonably understood to describe per se dangerous or deadly cutting instruments. The dictionary defines “dagger” as “a weapon with a short, pointed blade, used for stabbing”; “dirk” as “a long, straight dagger”; “switch-blade” as “a large jackknife that snaps open when a release button on the handle is pressed”; “stiletto” as “a small dagger, having a slender, tapering blade”; and “straight razor” as “a razor with a long, unguarded blade that can be folded into the handle.” And this then carries through for the disjunctive phrase “or any other dangerous or deadly cutting instrument of like character,” which is simply intended to prevent convicted felons from carrying a broader range of dangerous or deadly cutting instruments with features similar to those listed. Most importantly, the statutory language does not insert subjective judgment unmoored from the statute’s specifics. Harris’ knife—with its sharp, serrated, 3 and ½-inch blade that folds into its 4-inch handle—falls well within this statute’s foreseeable bounds….

If we embrace the majority’s view, our standard for the appropriate degree of specificity is transformed from a requirement for commonsense adequate protections against arbitrary and discriminatory enforcement to an unbearably exacting requirement that all statutes making specific conduct criminal must be wholly expressed by the Legislature. This goes too far.

The Justices also disagreed on the significance of certain statements by the state about the knife prohibition. The majority:

Harris [had] sought approval to introduce evidence that the State of Kansas—through Harris’ parole officer Alexis Olave—had told him that the pocketknife was not a prohibited knife. Harris proffered evidence that before the incident, Olave had advised Harris that he could carry the precise knife at issue, and he relied on that advice. Harris also provided a letter he had received from Olave after the incident in which she told him, “[Y]ou are allowed to have a pocket knife less than 4 inches in length while on post release. However, if the pocket knife is used in a threatening manner, then it can be viewed as a violation or as a crime.” … [The trial court rejected this argument, relying on the State’s argument] that parole officers are not legally authorized to interpret any statutes and so anything Olave may have said was legally irrelevant to a potential mistake of law defense ….

Harris moved to reconsider. Along with the evidence already proffered, he submitted the Kansas Department of Corrections Division of Community and Field Services Supervision Handbook. The handbook stated: “An ordinary pocket knife with a blade no longer than 4 inches is not considered by law to be a dangerous knife, or a dangerous or deadly weapon or instrument.” At a hearing on his motion to reconsider, Harris personally testified, “I went to [s]tate orientation just a couple of months before this, the whole place told me, everybody at that place told me and they give me that [handbook] stating and they told me I could own that knife.” The district court ruled again that Olave’s advice—or implicitly, the advice of anyone at the Kansas Department of Corrections (KDOC)—on what “counted” as a knife under the relevant statute was not an official opinion upon which Harris could rely….

[W]e have [here] a concrete example of government officials expressing and operating under diametrically opposed, yet plausible, enforcement standards—a sure sign of subjectivity in action. The State of Kansas, through its prosecutors, believes (and has acted on its belief) that K.S.A. 2019 Supp. 21-6304 is meant to be enforced against Harris and his pocketknife. But the State of Kansas has also, through its Department of Corrections, published a handbook and advised parolees (including Harris) that K.S.A. 2019 Supp. 21-6304 is not meant to be enforced against Harris and his pocketknife. Even without any bad faith on the part of the government—and the record here gives us no reason to suspect there is—the circumstances present us with an unmistakable instance of arbitrary enforcement of an inherently subjective standard.

The dissent:

The majority further stretches the record past the breaking point by declaring the KDOC handbook is “a sure sign of subjectivity in action.” The majority’s premise is that KDOC was interpreting the statute under which Harris was convicted. The majority then concludes from the handbook that “the circumstances present us with an unmistakable instance of arbitrary enforcement of an inherently subjective standard.” other words, the majority wants the reader to believe the Sedgwick County District Attorney and KDOC both looked at the same statute and independently came to different legal conclusions about its scope, so the statute must be subject to arbitrary enforcement. Let’s consider a far more likely reality.

The Kansas Department of Corrections Division of Community and Field Services Supervision Handbook that Harris was given, after explaining, “You are prohibited from owning, possessing or purchasing any firearms while on supervision with the KDOC,” stated:

“Other prohibited weapons may include brass knuckles, throwing stars, or any other weapon so defined in K.S.A. 21-6301 (criminal use of weapons). An ordinary pocket knife with a blade no longer than 4 inches is not considered by law to be a dangerous knife, or a dangerous or deadly weapon or instrument.”

The record is a little unclear about this part, but it appears Harris received the handbook in 2014. We at least know he entered a halfway house in May 2014. But the inconvenient truth for the majority’s arbitrary enforcement premise is that the law changed in 2013 regarding criminal use of weapons. The 2013 change struck from K.S.A. 2012 Supp. 21-6301 the following language: “except that an ordinary pocket knife with no blade more than four inches in length shall not be construed to be a dangerous knife, or a dangerous or deadly weapon or instrument.” Note how that language parallels the handbook.

This simply means the handbook’s exception derives from statutory language that was outdated when the handbook was given to Harris—and the outdated language was not even from the statute now challenged…. [T]hese circumstances would be proper areas of inquiry as part of Harris’ mistake-of-law defense; but they do not provide an example of arbitrary enforcement of K.S.A. 2019 Supp. 21-6304 as the majority claims.

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Trump Appeals to Progressive Voters With Promise To Defend Suburbs Against New Housing Development

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In an apparent bid to shore up his support among progressives in the San Francisco Bay Area, President Donald Trump is promising to prevent the construction of new low-income housing in suburban neighborhoods.

“I am happy to inform all of the people living their Suburban Lifestyle Dream that you will no longer be bothered or financially hurt by having low income housing built in your neighborhood,” Trump said on Twitter, referencing his recent repeal of the Obama-era affirmatively furthering fair housing (AFFH) rule. “Your housing prices will go up based on the market, and crime will go down. I have rescinded the Obama-Biden AFFH Rule. Enjoy!”

The old “Obama-Biden” AFFH rule did not, in fact, force suburban communities to allow low-income housing construction. Instead, the rather obscure regulation required states and localities who received federal housing funds to report on obstacles to fair housing.

The substance of that now-replaced rule is likely much less important to Trump than its symbolism as an example of the federal government forcing change onto localities that don’t want it.

In that sense, the president shares a lot in common with many of his progressive detractors in deeply blue areas of the country who are also happy to use regulation to keep new housing at bay, and who organize against attempts from higher levels of government to force them to accept new development.

This would include places like Lafayette, California, a wealthy San Francisco suburb nestled in Contra Costa County, where 69 percent of voters supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. Its residents fight to stop a “very urban,” “unsightly” 315-unit housing development was recently profiled by The New York Times.

Over in the suburban community of Cupertino, California—hardly Trump country—local activists spent years trying to stop the development of an abandoned mall into apartments, half of which would be rented out to lower-income tenants at below-market rates.

In the famously liberal city of Berkeley, California, activists often argue against new housing on the grounds that it will threaten their community’s sustainable character.

“Berkeley needs to prioritize a livable, sustainable environment for people who already live here,” said one resident at a 2018 Zoning Adjustment Board meeting, when opposing a 57-unit development of student housing. “We are not obligated to sacrifice what is best about Berkeley to build dorm rooms.”

In February, Curbed reported on how the group Livable California had created an ideology-spanning coalition that included Green Party members, explicit socialists, and anti-gentrification activists to oppose efforts to loosen restrictions on building dense housing.

In San Francisco proper, anti-gentrification groups frequently lead the charge against new apartment buildings, deploying arguments that blend concerns about rising rents and displacement with worries about “monster” developments changing the character and demographics of neighborhoods and (in at least two cases reported by Reason) casting shadows on nearby parks.

Frequently, activists’ crusades against particular projects include demands that developers build only 100 percent below-market-rate housing, something Trump now says he’s against on principle. Nevertheless, activists’ demands for only affordable housing often mean they end up stopping or delaying market-rate projects that would include a significant number of affordable units.

Trump’s attacks on the AFFH rule as an example of federal overreach mirror housing policy fights in California, where anti-development activists of all ideological stripes have opposed state bills that would require local governments to allow for more housing near transit lines and job centers.

The most recent iteration of this idea, Senate Bill (S.B.) 50, was opposed by a number of “equity groups” for including insufficient protections against displacing current residents. Other groups like Housing Is a Human Right—a project of the AIDS Healthcare Foundation—argued against S.B. 50’s liberalization of market-rate development as “trickle-down housing.” That group is instead backing a rent control ballot initiative.

NIMBY (Not in My Backyard) opposition to new housing development is very much a cross-ideological phenomenon. NIMBYs on the right might put more emphasis on property values and crime. Those on the left will fret about gentrification and environmental sustainability. Regardless of the rhetoric, or even intent, the result is less housing gets built, and housing costs go up.

It’s unlikely that Trump will pick up too many votes in the blue suburbs of blue cities, but his defense of local control and low-density zoning probably isn’t hurting him there.

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Jia Lynn Yang on the Immigration Law that Changed America

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What will the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown of our society mean for the hundreds of thousands of foreign workers, refugees, and asylum seekers who apply annually to become Americans? Donald Trump won the presidential election in 2016 in part by vowing to “build a wall,” deport all unauthorized residents, and greatly reduce the number of people welcomed here legally.

COVID-19, which has its origins in China, may help the president to deliver on his campaign promises. Is the mythology of America as a nation of immigrants coming to an end?

A deputy national editor at The New York Times, Jia Lynn Yang is the author of the timely new book, One Mighty and Irresistible Tide: The Epic Struggle Over American Immigration, 1924–1965. The book begins at another dark moment in American immigration policy, when a restrictive law ended a long period of relatively open borders and effectively stopped mass movement to the United States for the next 40 years. It tells the story of the decades-long battle that led the U.S. to begin accepting foreigners once again. And yet almost nobody involved in that fight foresaw the extent to which the 1965 law signed by President Lyndon B. Johnson would open the door once again to large numbers of new immigrants—including Yang’s family, who came here from Taiwan in the 1970s.

Nick Gillespie sat down with Yang first in March and then again in May, after signs that COVID-19 pandemic could have a major effect on U.S. immigration policy, including Trump’s executive order temporarily halting legal migration, a delay in asylum hearings on the Mexican border, and a federal order blocking entry of migrant children that invokes a 1940s-era law.

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Kansas Knife Statute Held Unconstitutionally Vague

From a Kansas Supreme Court majority opinion (by Justice Stegall) earlier this month in State v. Harris (a 4-3 decision):

In Kansas, it is a crime for a convicted felon to possess a knife[, defined] … as “a dagger, dirk, switchblade, stiletto, straight-edged razor or any other dangerous or deadly cutting instrument of like character.” … [F]iguring out when an object is a “knife” because it is a “dangerous or deadly cutting instrument of like character” is not as easy as one might suppose. See, e.g., Crocodile Dundee (Rimfire Films 1986) (“That’s not a knife … That’s a knife.”).

Indeed, no one has argued the statute makes it illegal for convicted felons to possess the utensil commonly used in kitchens to butter bread or slice vegetables. But does it? After all, it is a cutting instrument, is universally referred to as a knife, and it could conceivably be dangerous. Today we are tasked with deciding whether the uncertainty in the residual phrase in [the statute] is so great that the law is impermissibly and unconstitutionally vague. We conclude it is….

Christopher M. Harris is a convicted felon. When he and another man got into an altercation on a Wichita street, Harris pulled out a pocketknife. A police cruiser was in the area and the officer turned his spotlight onto the men. The officer observed Harris dropping an object which turned out to be the pocketknife.

The State charged Harris with aggravated assault, criminal possession of a weapon by a convicted felon, and criminal use of a weapon. At his jury trial, Harris testified he felt in fear of his life and opened the knife only for protection. The pocketknife had a 3 and 1/2-inch blade with serrations. A jury convicted Harris of criminal possession of a weapon and acquitted him of the other two charges….

Most litigation concerning vagueness in statutes has tended to focus on the due process elements of the vagueness doctrine. Does the statute fairly put people on notice as to the conduct proscribed? Are the words used common and understandable enough to allow persons of ordinary intelligence to easily grasp their meaning? This hurdle is often described as requiring no more than a “‘commonsense determination of fundamental fairness.'” … And when the analysis is confined to these questions, the rationale of the Court of Appeals panel—as well as the dissent—[rejecting the vagueness challenge] is understandable. The statute bars possession of knives by convicted felons. A pocketknife is a knife. People of ordinary intelligence are on notice as to what conduct the statute restricts, and the demands of fundamental fairness are met.

But our focus today is on the second hurdle—the one intended to ensure that the Legislature has not impermissibly delegated its authority to write the laws to officials or actors in either the executive or judicial branches of government…. The primary problem with a law that fails to “provide explicit standards” for enforcement … is that such laws “invite arbitrary power.” That is, these laws “threaten to transfer legislative power to” police, prosecutors, judges, and juries, which leaves “them the job of shaping a vague statute’s contours through their enforcement decisions.”

Because an impermissible delegation of legislative power will often lead to arbitrary enforcement based on subjective or even prejudicial criteria, the United States Supreme Court has indicated that the “more important” prong of the “vagueness doctrine ‘is not actual notice, but the other principal element of the doctrine—the requirement that a legislature establish minimal guidelines to govern law enforcement.’ [Without these], a criminal statute may permit ‘a standardless sweep [that] allows policemen, prosecutors, and juries to pursue their personal predilections.’ [Citations omitted.]” See also United States v. Davis (2019) (“Vague statutes threaten to hand responsibility for defining crimes to relatively unaccountable police, prosecutors, and judges, eroding the people’s ability to oversee the creation of the laws they are expected to abide.”); United States v. Reese (1875) (“It would certainly be dangerous if the legislature could set a net large enough to catch all possible offenders, and leave it to the courts to step inside and say who could be rightfully detained, and who should be set at large. This would, to some extent, substitute the judicial for the legislative department of the government.”).

It is the very overbreadth of such laws that renders them impermissibly vague. It is not necessarily because they are ambiguous on their face—an overbroad law can be very clear. The problem, in fact, may be amplified by clarity. If a law “makes everyone” a violator, then “prosecutors and the police [will] both define the law on the street and decide who has violated it.” This is a world in which “almost anyone can be arrested for something.” Nieves v. Bartlett (2019) (Gorsuch, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part).

It is appropriate to call such clear-but-overbroad laws “vague” because by failing to provide adequate enforcement guidelines, the Legislature has left it up to other actors to give the law teeth through their enforcement decisions and actions. As Justice Robert Jackson once wrote, without clear legal standards to guide us, we human beings “usually end up … condemning all that we personally disapprove and for no better reason than that we disapprove it.”

Within constitutional boundaries, legislators have this liberty. This is by design. Prosecutors, judges, law enforcement officers, and juries—that is, actors constrained by the law—do not have such freedom. This, too, is by design. Whether or not a person is arrested, charged, and convicted for violating a law must depend more on objective and discernable legal rules than on the mere discretion, guesswork, or whim of government officials. See Davis (“Only the people’s elected representatives in the legislature are authorized to ‘make an act a crime.'”)….

Today’s case gives us a textbook example of the … enforcement guesswork that can result from a vague law. The statute makes it a crime for Harris to possess a weapon. A weapon “means a firearm or … a dagger, dirk, switchblade, stiletto, straight-edged razor or any other dangerous or deadly cutting instrument of like character.” It is undisputed that Harris did not possess a firearm, a dagger, a dirk, a switchblade, a stiletto, or a straight-edged razor. In these circumstances, enforcement officials must ask, what exactly is a dangerous cutting instrument of like character? We are unable to discern a sufficiently objective standard of enforcement in this language. Instead, we are left with the subjective judgment of the enforcement agencies and actors. A pair of scissors? Maybe. A safety razor blade? Perhaps. A box cutter? Probably, but would that decision be driven by an objective rule or a historically contingent fear of box cutters?

The dissent chides us for reciting these hypothetical examples, though in doing so it issues its own subjective interpretation of what really counts as a knife. The dissent goes so far as to attempt to distinguish between the relative deadliness of the cutting edges on a box cutter (prohibited) and a pair of scissors (not prohibited). But the statutory language at issue—”dangerous or deadly cutting instruments of like character”—does not permit such fine distinctions….

[A] legislative enactment … has impermissibly delegated legislative power to the executive and judicial branches. Thus, we hold that the residual clause in K.S.A. 2019 Supp. 21-6304 is unconstitutionally vague….

From Justice Biles’ dissent:

The “pocketknife” in this case features a sharp, serrated blade, 3 and 1/2 inches long, that folds back into its handle. It is about 7 inches long fully extended. And even though the oversized bowie knife of Crocodile Dundee movie fame dwarfs it by comparison, it cannot reasonably be mistaken as something outside the foreseeable statutory meaning of “knife” in a measure designed to keep convicted felons from possessing a weapon…. I dissent because the majority’s decision inappropriately conjures facts not supported by the record, while improperly drifting past the undisputed facts in favor of hypotheticals. And by doing this, the majority imposes too strict of a standard on the Legislature’s ability to formulate criminal laws by now requiring “an explicit and objective standard of enforcement.”

That said, Christopher Harris may still prevail. In my view, he is entitled to pursue the mistake-of-law defense denied to him by the district court. I would reverse his conviction on that basis and return this case to the district court for a new trial….

The directive to consider a statute’s vagueness in the actual context of the facts should control. Courts decide whether a statute is vague as applied to the particular facts at issue because a litigant who engages in clearly proscribed conduct cannot complain about a law’s vagueness as applied to someone else’s conduct….

Analyzing K.S.A. 2019 Supp. 21-6304(c)(1) in light of the facts in Harris’ case reinforces our two traditional analytical polestars: (1) the statute is sufficiently clear to have informed him it was unlawful to possess his knife, and (2) the statute is sufficiently clear to stave off any contention that authorities arbitrarily prosecuted him for having it….

The criminal-possession statute makes clear not all objects with a blade are prohibited. It provides instead that “‘[k]nife’ means a dagger, dirk, switchblade, stiletto, straight-edged razor or any other dangerous or deadly cutting instrument of like character.” This statutory description supplants the term’s ordinary meaning. And the phrase with which we are concerned—”dangerous or deadly cutting instruments of like character” is given understandable dimension by the five listed items that precede it—dagger, dirk, switchblade, stiletto, and straight-edged razor.

When the Legislature decided to use the word “means” in defining “knife,” it made that definition both complete and exclusive. And nothing can be added or deleted by interpretation. So the majority’s hypothetical examples (“[a] pair of scissors and [a] safety razor blade”) would be excluded from the Legislature’s restrictive definition of “knife.” Similarly, and as the majority seems to concede, its box cutter example may very well fit within the restrictive definition of “knife.”

Nevertheless, the five descriptors provided are easily and reasonably understood to describe per se dangerous or deadly cutting instruments. The dictionary defines “dagger” as “a weapon with a short, pointed blade, used for stabbing”; “dirk” as “a long, straight dagger”; “switch-blade” as “a large jackknife that snaps open when a release button on the handle is pressed”; “stiletto” as “a small dagger, having a slender, tapering blade”; and “straight razor” as “a razor with a long, unguarded blade that can be folded into the handle.” And this then carries through for the disjunctive phrase “or any other dangerous or deadly cutting instrument of like character,” which is simply intended to prevent convicted felons from carrying a broader range of dangerous or deadly cutting instruments with features similar to those listed. Most importantly, the statutory language does not insert subjective judgment unmoored from the statute’s specifics. Harris’ knife—with its sharp, serrated, 3 and ½-inch blade that folds into its 4-inch handle—falls well within this statute’s foreseeable bounds….

If we embrace the majority’s view, our standard for the appropriate degree of specificity is transformed from a requirement for commonsense adequate protections against arbitrary and discriminatory enforcement to an unbearably exacting requirement that all statutes making specific conduct criminal must be wholly expressed by the Legislature. This goes too far.

The Justices also disagreed on the significance of certain statements by the state about the knife prohibition. The majority:

Harris [had] sought approval to introduce evidence that the State of Kansas—through Harris’ parole officer Alexis Olave—had told him that the pocketknife was not a prohibited knife. Harris proffered evidence that before the incident, Olave had advised Harris that he could carry the precise knife at issue, and he relied on that advice. Harris also provided a letter he had received from Olave after the incident in which she told him, “[Y]ou are allowed to have a pocket knife less than 4 inches in length while on post release. However, if the pocket knife is used in a threatening manner, then it can be viewed as a violation or as a crime.” … [The trial court rejected this argument, relying on the State’s argument] that parole officers are not legally authorized to interpret any statutes and so anything Olave may have said was legally irrelevant to a potential mistake of law defense ….

Harris moved to reconsider. Along with the evidence already proffered, he submitted the Kansas Department of Corrections Division of Community and Field Services Supervision Handbook. The handbook stated: “An ordinary pocket knife with a blade no longer than 4 inches is not considered by law to be a dangerous knife, or a dangerous or deadly weapon or instrument.” At a hearing on his motion to reconsider, Harris personally testified, “I went to [s]tate orientation just a couple of months before this, the whole place told me, everybody at that place told me and they give me that [handbook] stating and they told me I could own that knife.” The district court ruled again that Olave’s advice—or implicitly, the advice of anyone at the Kansas Department of Corrections (KDOC)—on what “counted” as a knife under the relevant statute was not an official opinion upon which Harris could rely….

[W]e have [here] a concrete example of government officials expressing and operating under diametrically opposed, yet plausible, enforcement standards—a sure sign of subjectivity in action. The State of Kansas, through its prosecutors, believes (and has acted on its belief) that K.S.A. 2019 Supp. 21-6304 is meant to be enforced against Harris and his pocketknife. But the State of Kansas has also, through its Department of Corrections, published a handbook and advised parolees (including Harris) that K.S.A. 2019 Supp. 21-6304 is not meant to be enforced against Harris and his pocketknife. Even without any bad faith on the part of the government—and the record here gives us no reason to suspect there is—the circumstances present us with an unmistakable instance of arbitrary enforcement of an inherently subjective standard.

The dissent:

The majority further stretches the record past the breaking point by declaring the KDOC handbook is “a sure sign of subjectivity in action.” The majority’s premise is that KDOC was interpreting the statute under which Harris was convicted. The majority then concludes from the handbook that “the circumstances present us with an unmistakable instance of arbitrary enforcement of an inherently subjective standard.” other words, the majority wants the reader to believe the Sedgwick County District Attorney and KDOC both looked at the same statute and independently came to different legal conclusions about its scope, so the statute must be subject to arbitrary enforcement. Let’s consider a far more likely reality.

The Kansas Department of Corrections Division of Community and Field Services Supervision Handbook that Harris was given, after explaining, “You are prohibited from owning, possessing or purchasing any firearms while on supervision with the KDOC,” stated:

“Other prohibited weapons may include brass knuckles, throwing stars, or any other weapon so defined in K.S.A. 21-6301 (criminal use of weapons). An ordinary pocket knife with a blade no longer than 4 inches is not considered by law to be a dangerous knife, or a dangerous or deadly weapon or instrument.”

The record is a little unclear about this part, but it appears Harris received the handbook in 2014. We at least know he entered a halfway house in May 2014. But the inconvenient truth for the majority’s arbitrary enforcement premise is that the law changed in 2013 regarding criminal use of weapons. The 2013 change struck from K.S.A. 2012 Supp. 21-6301 the following language: “except that an ordinary pocket knife with no blade more than four inches in length shall not be construed to be a dangerous knife, or a dangerous or deadly weapon or instrument.” Note how that language parallels the handbook.

This simply means the handbook’s exception derives from statutory language that was outdated when the handbook was given to Harris—and the outdated language was not even from the statute now challenged…. [T]hese circumstances would be proper areas of inquiry as part of Harris’ mistake-of-law defense; but they do not provide an example of arbitrary enforcement of K.S.A. 2019 Supp. 21-6304 as the majority claims.

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Trump Appeals to Progressive Voters With Promise To Defend Suburbs Against New Housing Development

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In an apparent bid to shore up his support among progressives in the San Francisco Bay Area, President Donald Trump is promising to prevent the construction of new low-income housing in suburban neighborhoods.

“I am happy to inform all of the people living their Suburban Lifestyle Dream that you will no longer be bothered or financially hurt by having low income housing built in your neighborhood,” Trump said on Twitter, referencing his recent repeal of the Obama-era affirmatively furthering fair housing (AFFH) rule. “Your housing prices will go up based on the market, and crime will go down. I have rescinded the Obama-Biden AFFH Rule. Enjoy!”

The old “Obama-Biden” AFFH rule did not, in fact, force suburban communities to allow low-income housing construction. Instead, the rather obscure regulation required states and localities who received federal housing funds to report on obstacles to fair housing.

The substance of that now-replaced rule is likely much less important to Trump than its symbolism as an example of the federal government forcing change onto localities that don’t want it.

In that sense, the president shares a lot in common with many of his progressive detractors in deeply blue areas of the country who are also happy to use regulation to keep new housing at bay, and who organize against attempts from higher levels of government to force them to accept new development.

This would include places like Lafayette, California, a wealthy San Francisco suburb nestled in Contra Costa County, where 69 percent of voters supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. Its residents fight to stop a “very urban,” “unsightly” 315-unit housing development was recently profiled by The New York Times.

Over in the suburban community of Cupertino, California—hardly Trump country—local activists spent years trying to stop the development of an abandoned mall into apartments, half of which would be rented out to lower-income tenants at below-market rates.

In the famously liberal city of Berkeley, California, activists often argue against new housing on the grounds that it will threaten their community’s sustainable character.

“Berkeley needs to prioritize a livable, sustainable environment for people who already live here,” said one resident at a 2018 Zoning Adjustment Board meeting, when opposing a 57-unit development of student housing. “We are not obligated to sacrifice what is best about Berkeley to build dorm rooms.”

In February, Curbed reported on how the group Livable California had created an ideology-spanning coalition that included Green Party members, explicit socialists, and anti-gentrification activists to oppose efforts to loosen restrictions on building dense housing.

In San Francisco proper, anti-gentrification groups frequently lead the charge against new apartment buildings, deploying arguments that blend concerns about rising rents and displacement with worries about “monster” developments changing the character and demographics of neighborhoods and (in at least two cases reported by Reason) casting shadows on nearby parks.

Frequently, activists’ crusades against particular projects include demands that developers build only 100 percent below-market-rate housing, something Trump now says he’s against on principle. Nevertheless, activists’ demands for only affordable housing often mean they end up stopping or delaying market-rate projects that would include a significant number of affordable units.

Trump’s attacks on the AFFH rule as an example of federal overreach mirror housing policy fights in California, where anti-development activists of all ideological stripes have opposed state bills that would require local governments to allow for more housing near transit lines and job centers.

The most recent iteration of this idea, Senate Bill (S.B.) 50, was opposed by a number of “equity groups” for including insufficient protections against displacing current residents. Other groups like Housing Is a Human Right—a project of the AIDS Healthcare Foundation—argued against S.B. 50’s liberalization of market-rate development as “trickle-down housing.” That group is instead backing a rent control ballot initiative.

NIMBY (Not in My Backyard) opposition to new housing development is very much a cross-ideological phenomenon. NIMBYs on the right might put more emphasis on property values and crime. Those on the left will fret about gentrification and environmental sustainability. Regardless of the rhetoric, or even intent, the result is less housing gets built, and housing costs go up.

It’s unlikely that Trump will pick up too many votes in the blue suburbs of blue cities, but his defense of local control and low-density zoning probably isn’t hurting him there.

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Jia Lynn Yang on the Immigration Law that Changed America

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What will the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown of our society mean for the hundreds of thousands of foreign workers, refugees, and asylum seekers who apply annually to become Americans? Donald Trump won the presidential election in 2016 in part by vowing to “build a wall,” deport all unauthorized residents, and greatly reduce the number of people welcomed here legally.

COVID-19, which has its origins in China, may help the president to deliver on his campaign promises. Is the mythology of America as a nation of immigrants coming to an end?

A deputy national editor at The New York Times, Jia Lynn Yang is the author of the timely new book, One Mighty and Irresistible Tide: The Epic Struggle Over American Immigration, 1924–1965. The book begins at another dark moment in American immigration policy, when a restrictive law ended a long period of relatively open borders and effectively stopped mass movement to the United States for the next 40 years. It tells the story of the decades-long battle that led the U.S. to begin accepting foreigners once again. And yet almost nobody involved in that fight foresaw the extent to which the 1965 law signed by President Lyndon B. Johnson would open the door once again to large numbers of new immigrants—including Yang’s family, who came here from Taiwan in the 1970s.

Nick Gillespie sat down with Yang first in March and then again in May, after signs that COVID-19 pandemic could have a major effect on U.S. immigration policy, including Trump’s executive order temporarily halting legal migration, a delay in asylum hearings on the Mexican border, and a federal order blocking entry of migrant children that invokes a 1940s-era law.

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Everybody Is Jumping to Conclusions About This Couple’s Show of Force in Response to Trespassing Protesters

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Last week Mark and Patricia McCloskey, the lawyers who brandished guns in response to protesters passing by their house in a private neighborhood of St. Louis on June 28, were charged with illegally exhibiting lethal weapons “in an angry or threatening manner.” The merits of those charges, which are Class E felonies punishable by up to four years in prison, obviously depend on exactly what happened that day. But the heated debate about whether the McCloskeys were lawfully exercising their Second Amendment rights has instead been driven by political and ideological agendas.

“It is illegal to wave weapons in a threatening manner at those participating in nonviolent protest,” St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kimberly Gardner, a Democrat and the first African American to occupy her position, said when she filed the charges. “And while we are fortunate this situation did not escalate into deadly force, this type of conduct is unacceptable in St. Louis.” But after Sen. Josh Hawley (R–Mo.) urged the U.S. Justice Department to open a civil rights investigation of the McCloskeys’ treatment, Gardner’s measured position gave way to over-the-top, inflammatory rhetoric that reflects underlying political grudges and racial suspicion.

“This is a dog whistle of racist rhetoric and cronyism politics,” Gardner said. “This is a modern-day night ride, and everybody knows it.” She thus equated Hawley’s objections to her prosecution of the McCloskeys with Ku Klux Klan terrorism.

While the McCloskeys are white and many of the protesters were black, Hawley said nothing about race in his July 16 letter to Attorney General William Barr, although he did accuse Gardner of “a politically motivated attempt to punish this family for exercising their Second Amendment rights.” The case against the McCloskeys is “part of a troubling pattern of politically motivated prosecutorial decisions,” he said, citing Gardner’s opposition to a law that eliminated the permit requirement for carrying a concealed firearm and her decision not to charge eight people arrested for rioting during local protests against police brutality. “There is no question under Missouri law that the McCloskeys had the right to own and use their firearms to protect themselves from threatened violence,” Hawley asserted, “and that any criminal prosecution for these actions is legally unsound.”

The couple also has the support of other prominent Republicans. Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt condemned the case against the McCloskeys as a “political prosecution.” Gov. Mike Parson said he probably would pardon them if they were convicted. President Donald Trump called Gardner’s investigation of the couple “a disgrace.”

Parson’s position on the case is especially revealing since he admitted he is not familiar with the facts required to determine whether the McCloskeys’ actions were legal. The couple “had every right” to brandish their guns, he told reporters on July 14, accusing Gardner of “attempting to take their constitutional rights away.” But he also said he was still “reviewing all the available facts” and conceded that he did not “know all the details of it.”

Three days later, in an interview with a local radio station, Parson said he was grateful that Trump had promised to “do everything he could within his powers to help with the situation” (although exactly what that might mean is unclear, since the president has no authority over local prosecutorial decisions). Asked if he would pardon the McCloskeys, Parson replied, “By all means, I would, and I think that’s exactly what would happen.” But he again conceded that he did not know “all the facts,” adding that “if this is all about going after them because they…did a lawful act, then, yeah, if that scenario in fact happened, I don’t think they’re going to spend any time in jail.”

Did that scenario in fact happen? It is undisputed that the protesters—who reportedly were taking a shortcut to the home of St. Louis Mayor Lyda Krewson, where they planned to harangue her and demand her resignation for publicly revealing the names and addresses of constituents who had written to her in support of “defunding” the police—trespassed on private property by entering the gated community. Mark McCloskey—who questions the protesters’ motivation, saying “the mayor’s house cannot be reached through my neighborhood”—claims they broke through a locked gate to traverse a private street, verbally threatened him, and were deterred only by the guns that he and his wife wielded (a rifle and a pistol, respectively).

“I was a person scared for my life, who was protecting my wife, my home, my hearth, my livelihood,” McCloskey said in a June 30 interview with CNN’s Chris Cuomo. “I was a victim of a mob that came through the gate. I didn’t care what color they were. I didn’t care what their motivation was. I was frightened. I was assaulted. And I was in imminent fear that they would run me over, kill me, burn my house.” He described “hundreds of people” who were “screaming, shouting, angry” as they “broke through the private gate.” He said they were “screaming death threats at me and threatening to burn my house and kill my dog and [talking about] what rooms in my house they were going to live in after they killed me.”

McCloskey explained that his fear was amplified by his knowledge of how local protests triggered by the March 25 death of George Floyd in Minneapolis had turned destructive and violent before. “When bad things happen, they unpredictably turn really bad really fast,” he said. “The reason why they did not get up my steps was that my wife and I were there with weapons to keep them off our steps….They were coming at us until I displayed the weapon, and that stopped them.”

On those facts, Hawley is correct that the McCloskeys “had the right to…use their firearms to protect themselves from threatened violence.” Missouri law allows anyone to use deadly force when “he or she reasonably believes” it is “necessary to protect himself, or herself or her unborn child, or another against death, serious physical injury, or any forcible felony.” The law also says a person may use deadly force against anyone who “attempts to unlawfully enter a dwelling, residence, or vehicle lawfully occupied by such person.” It adds that people facing such a threat in their own home have no duty to retreat from the confrontation—a rule, known as the “castle doctrine,” that applies in every state.

Research by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch casts doubt on at least one element of Mark McCloskey’s story. Based on video shot by a protester, reporter Jeremy Kohler found that the gate was unlocked, undamaged, and open when the first members of the group entered the private street. The video, Kohler said, shows those protesters veering away from the McCloskeys’ house rather than approaching it, while Mark McCloskey, standing on his front porch, “immediately” begins shouting at them to leave. The man recording the scene objects that the protesters are staying on the sidewalk and asks why the McCloskeys are pointing guns at them. Later on, an organizer can be heard in another video shot by a protester urging the group to stay on the sidewalk and avoid walking on residents’ property.

Notwithstanding those instructions, of course, the protesters already were illegally walking through a private neighborhood. “Any pretense of protest, as opposed to terrorism, ended when they broke through that gate,” McCloskey said on CNN. Furthermore, as Kohler noted, there is a dispute about ownership of the green area between the gate and the sidewalk, which the McCloskeys claim is theirs by squatters’ rights, since they have treated it as part of their front yard for years.

As far as I can tell, no video or audio evidence has emerged to confirm McCloskey’s claim that protesters approached his house in a menacing way and made verbal threats. But that does not mean it did not happen, since the record is incomplete.

In this context, Chris Cuomo’s attitude during his hostile interview with McCloskey and his lawyer, Albert Watkins, is maddening. “We can talk about the legal rights and the facts,” Cuomo said at the outset. “But I want to talk about, not having a right, but whether or not something is right first….How do you feel about becoming the political face of resistance to the Black Lives Matter movement?”

As McCloskey and Watkins pointed out, the couple had no control over how other people, including the president, responded to the incident. While expressing support for the Black Lives Matter message, Watkins noted that it has nothing to do with the justification for the McCloskeys’ show of force. That has everything to do with “the legal rights and the facts” that Cuomo so blithely dismissed.

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