Beware The Ghosts Of Artificial Liquidity-Fueled Melt-Ups Past

Beware The Ghosts Of Artificial Liquidity-Fueled Melt-Ups Past

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

Finally. A glimmer of cognition. An admission. A sense that the Fed knows, but is largely unwilling to admit it.

But Dallas Fed president Kaplan let it slip, the truth everybody already knows: It’s the Fed’s pumping of its balance sheet that has brought about this party like it’s 1999.

Via Reuters:

“I do think the growth in the balance sheet is having some impact on the financial markets and on the valuation of risk assets…I want to be cognizant of not adding more fuel that could help create further excesses and imbalances.”

“Some”. Cute. How about all as the correlation has been well established and the Fed is recognized as the only game in town. But at least it’s an admission and a recognition that excesses and imbalances are being created and are already in place.

Last night’s discussion on CNBC Fast Money by all participants shows how pervasive this recognition is, that the Fed is driving everything, it’s not just yours truly that keeps highlighting this point:

And so the artificial liquidity keeps driving equity prices above fundamentals and complacency takes on ever more extremes in its own right.

Here is the weekly put/call ratio at it slowest in 8 years:

In party like it’s 1999 I made the point that the action by the Fed is similar to what it did in the run up to Y2K. Once that was over Greenspan withdrew liquidity and markets crashed.

Already the Fed is backpedaling on reducing liquidity knowing full well it would cause trouble in equity markets:

And don’t think it’s not all about keeping markets calm and assured. They are literally giving out guarantees:

And it’s perhaps the most crucial decision the Fed faces this year. It’s not rates stupid, it’s the balance sheet stupid.

The Fed has set equities on fire:

How much more are they willing to let the fire run out of control?

And how they can extract themselves out of the bubble they have created as the ghosts of 2000 are all around us:

Price to sales valuations of the market higher than even 2000:

EV/EBIDTA as high as the year 2000:

EV/Sales at 200 record highs:

Market cap to GDP higher even since the year 2000:

And consumers? As comfortable as the put/call ratio is about risk (via Sentimentrader:):

What else did we see in 1999/2000?

Nobody caring about risk, value or valuations, just get me into stocks, even into stocks that have a lot to prove, awarding valuations not reflective of fundamentals, but chasing vertical charts without discipline or fear:

In a bubble environment, especially one that’s driven by artificial liquidity and hype,valuations don’t matter until they do.

The Fed knows that its balance sheet operations are creating excess and imbalances. Now their job is to let the air out the bubble gently or face a 2000 repeat, a reversion to the mean that would bring about the very recession it tried to avoid in the first place. The ghosts of 2000 are all around us. Yet investors don’t seem to have any appetite for protection. In Fed we trust.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden

Fri, 01/10/2020 – 16:25

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Atlanta Disbands Its Narcotics Unit To Focus on Violent Crimes Instead

In what we can only hope is a shift away from overly oppressive policing against low-level drug use and sales, the Atlanta Police Department is disbanding its special Narcotics Unit and shifting cops elsewhere to focus on fighting violent crime. Atlanta has seen a drop in its overall crime rate over the past two years, but homicides and aggravated assaults have both increased.

When reporter Mark Winne of WSB-TV 2 asked for confirmation, the department sent him a prepared statement confirming the news:

We know that the illegal narcotics trade is often at the center of criminal activity fueled by guns and gangs. The Department is de-centralizing its Narcotics Unit in recognition that the violence that surrounds this trade should be the focus of the entire Department, not just one team. We have had tremendous success at targeting the sale of illegal narcotics by tracking violent criminals and getting illegally-possessed guns off the streets.

Violent crime and gang activity must be the Department’s primary focus and where we will have a greater impact on the crimes affecting those most often victimized in our communities.

WSB-TV’s coverage has a slight air of disappointment, as if the station is unhappy that it won’t be able to put those photogenic bust-down-the-door raids on the evening news anymore. Winne makes a vaguely negative reference to the idea of making this change in the midst of the opioid overdose crisis.

But if the Atlanta Police Department is realizing that “zero tolerance” drug enforcement is not the solution to gang violence, that’s good news. There are indeed nasty and violent dealers out there, but decades of the drug war have taught us that a good chunk of the drug trade involves low-level dealing, often by people who are themselves addicted; harsh enforcement of drug laws has led to large numbers of nonviolent drug offenders serving long prison terms. Focusing on actual violence is surely preferable to chasing after the low-hanging fruit of undercover deals, or of raids based on info from sketchy informants with their own agendas.

It’s not clear how extensive this change might be. Atlanta has another special drug unit that participates in the federal Drug Enforcement Administration’s High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas (HIDTA) program, which helps fund multi-agency drug task forces. The statement from the Atlanta Police Department didn’t mention whether it would stay involved with the HIDTA program, and a call from Reason to the department’s public affairs office was not returned.

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Facts Still Matter, But They Don’t Change Many Voters’ Minds

Good news: Facts still matter. Or at least they do in political science experiments.

In the experiments, participants looked at various claims floating around the political world, including the assertions that solar power employs more people than does the oil industry (asserted by Hillary Clinton), that immigrants commit crimes disproportionately to native-borns (declared by Donald Trump), and that more violence is being committed against the police (alleged by Ted Cruz). As it happens, all of those claims are false, and the experiments showed that people’s views tend to become more accurate after reading information correcting the politicians’ specious claims. Hooray, right?

Not so fast. Yet more research finds that facts don’t seem to matter much when it comes to people’s attitudes about the politicians they favor, at least in the context of a hotly contested presidential campaign.

In a forthcoming paper, University of Michigan political scientist Brendan Nyhan and his colleagues sought to answer a key question: When presented with a realistic fact-check of a false statement made by a candidate, will people not only revise their factual beliefs but also alter their attitudes toward the candidate?

The researchers looked at the effects of journalistic fact-checks of two claims made by Donald Trump, one during his convention speech and the other during the first general election debate. The surveys they drew on were conducted during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. This means that neither the researchers collecting the data nor the survey participants knew at the time who the winner of the 2016 campaign would be.

In his convention speech, Trump claimed America was under assault from a dangerous and rising tide of violent crime. As evidence, an annotated speech released by the campaign cites (among other things) a January 2016 Washington Post story that reported a 17 percent increase in homicides in the country’s 50 largest cities. Yet when Trump gave his speech, the most recent FBI data (from 2014) said the national murder rate was at a record low of 4.5 per 100,000 people. It subsequently ticked up in 2016 to what it was in 2008 (5.4 per 100,000), then dropped back in 2018 to where it was in 2009 (5.0 per 100,000).

The fact-check used in the study states, “According to FBI’s Bureau of Justice Statistics, the violent crime rate has fallen dramatically and consistently over time. According to their estimates, the homicide rate in the U.S. in 2015 was half that recorded in 1991.”

The second Trump claim involved job losses in Michigan and Ohio during the first presidential debate. The candidate said: “Thousands of jobs [are] leaving Michigan, leaving Ohio. They’re all leaving.” That turns out to have been old news. In 2016, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in the past year Ohio had gained 78,300 jobs and Michigan had gained 75,800; their respective unemployment rates stood at 4.7 and 4.9 percent. (The national unemployment rate in August 2016 was 4.9 percent.)

The fact-check for this claims states: “In fact, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment has fallen in both Michigan and Ohio. Both states each saw 70,000 new jobs over the last year.”

In the first survey, more than 4,000 participants read a story citing Trump’s claim about a rising crime wave. Some read an uncorrected story, another group read a story with the correction included, and another group read the correction along with a disparagement of the accuracy of FBI statistics from Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort, who claimed the FBI statistics are suspect because the agency had failed to charge Clinton over the private email server scandal.

“Though Trump’s supporters were more likely than Clinton’s to believe that crime had increased or not declined significantly over the previous ten years, corrective information reduced misperceptions among supporters of both candidates,” report the researchers. By how much? After reading the story with the correction, the perceived level of crime dropped on a five-point scale from an average of 4.17 to 3.31 for Trump voters and from an average of 3.3 to 2.7 for Clinton voters. The views of both Trump and Clinton voters about crime rates became more accurate when presented with factual information.

Among people who read the story that included Manafort’s comments, the perceived level of crime dropped from 4.17 to only 3.62 among Trump supporters, from 3.3 to 2.9 for Clinton voters. This suggests that whataboutism can work.

But none of this changed how people viewed the candidate. The participants were asked to rate him on a five-point favorability/unfavorability scale before and after reading the fact-check. The researchers found “no significant effects of the fact-check on favorability toward Trump regardless of respondents’ candidate preference.” They conclude: “Fact-checks can still spur people to hold more factually accurate beliefs. However, these changes in belief accuracy do not seem to lead to corresponding changes in attitudes toward the candidate being fact-checked.”

And the second claim? Around 1,500 participants sorted into Trump and Clinton supporters were asked in advance to watch the first presidential debate and to respond to a survey that closed at noon the day after. The participants were also surveyed five days later. The researchers again found that “fact-checking reduced misperceptions but had no discernible effects on participants’ candidate preferences, including supporters of the candidate who had been fact-checked.”

The authors acknowledge some limitations on their research:

First, we did not test a fact-check of a Clinton misstatement and cannot evaluate how her supporters would have reacted. Second, Trump was infamous for extreme exaggerations and misstatements, which may have made some respondents receptive to fact-checking but also prepared his supporters to rationalize their continued support for him.

In 2016, journalist Salena Zito famously summed up reactions to Trump’s constant stream of hyperbole and lies: “The press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.” These studies seemy to bolster that idea. As the researchers write, “Trump supporters took fact-checks literally, but not seriously enough to affect how they felt toward their preferred candidate.”

This is disturbing. If politicians suffer essentially no diminution of support from being wrong and/or lying, they’ll have no reason to hew to the truth. And the proliferation of lies debases public discourse and inflames partisan passions.

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Atlanta Disbands Its Narcotics Unit To Focus on Violent Crimes Instead

In what we can only hope is a shift away from overly oppressive policing against low-level drug use and sales, the Atlanta Police Department is disbanding its special Narcotics Unit and shifting cops elsewhere to focus on fighting violent crime. Atlanta has seen a drop in its overall crime rate over the past two years, but homicides and aggravated assaults have both increased.

When reporter Mark Winne of WSB-TV 2 asked for confirmation, the department sent him a prepared statement confirming the news:

We know that the illegal narcotics trade is often at the center of criminal activity fueled by guns and gangs. The Department is de-centralizing its Narcotics Unit in recognition that the violence that surrounds this trade should be the focus of the entire Department, not just one team. We have had tremendous success at targeting the sale of illegal narcotics by tracking violent criminals and getting illegally-possessed guns off the streets.

Violent crime and gang activity must be the Department’s primary focus and where we will have a greater impact on the crimes affecting those most often victimized in our communities.

WSB-TV’s coverage has a slight air of disappointment, as if the station is unhappy that it won’t be able to put those photogenic bust-down-the-door raids on the evening news anymore. Winne makes a vaguely negative reference to the idea of making this change in the midst of the opioid overdose crisis.

But if the Atlanta Police Department is realizing that “zero tolerance” drug enforcement is not the solution to gang violence, that’s good news. There are indeed nasty and violent dealers out there, but decades of the drug war have taught us that a good chunk of the drug trade involves low-level dealing, often by people who are themselves addicted; harsh enforcement of drug laws has led to large numbers of nonviolent drug offenders serving long prison terms. Focusing on actual violence is surely preferable to chasing after the low-hanging fruit of undercover deals, or of raids based on info from sketchy informants with their own agendas.

It’s not clear how extensive this change might be. Atlanta has another special drug unit that participates in the federal Drug Enforcement Administration’s High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas (HIDTA) program, which helps fund multi-agency drug task forces. The statement from the Atlanta Police Department didn’t mention whether it would stay involved with the HIDTA program, and a call from Reason to the department’s public affairs office was not returned.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/36KvUb8
via IFTTT

Facts Still Matter, But They Don’t Change Many Voters’ Minds

Good news: Facts still matter. Or at least they do in political science experiments.

In the experiments, participants looked at various claims floating around the political world, including the assertions that solar power employs more people than does the oil industry (asserted by Hillary Clinton), that immigrants commit crimes disproportionately to native-borns (declared by Donald Trump), and that more violence is being committed against the police (alleged by Ted Cruz). As it happens, all of those claims are false, and the experiments showed that people’s views tend to become more accurate after reading information correcting the politicians’ specious claims. Hooray, right?

Not so fast. Yet more research finds that facts don’t seem to matter much when it comes to people’s attitudes about the politicians they favor, at least in the context of a hotly contested presidential campaign.

In a forthcoming paper, University of Michigan political scientist Brendan Nyhan and his colleagues sought to answer a key question: When presented with a realistic fact-check of a false statement made by a candidate, will people not only revise their factual beliefs but also alter their attitudes toward the candidate?

The researchers looked at the effects of journalistic fact-checks of two claims made by Donald Trump, one during his convention speech and the other during the first general election debate. The surveys they drew on were conducted during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. This means that neither the researchers collecting the data nor the survey participants knew at the time who the winner of the 2016 campaign would be.

In his convention speech, Trump claimed America was under assault from a dangerous and rising tide of violent crime. As evidence, an annotated speech released by the campaign cites (among other things) a January 2016 Washington Post story that reported a 17 percent increase in homicides in the country’s 50 largest cities. Yet when Trump gave his speech, the most recent FBI data (from 2014) said the national murder rate was at a record low of 4.5 per 100,000 people. It subsequently ticked up in 2016 to what it was in 2008 (5.4 per 100,000), then dropped back in 2018 to where it was in 2009 (5.0 per 100,000).

The fact-check used in the study states, “According to FBI’s Bureau of Justice Statistics, the violent crime rate has fallen dramatically and consistently over time. According to their estimates, the homicide rate in the U.S. in 2015 was half that recorded in 1991.”

The second Trump claim involved job losses in Michigan and Ohio during the first presidential debate. The candidate said: “Thousands of jobs [are] leaving Michigan, leaving Ohio. They’re all leaving.” That turns out to have been old news. In 2016, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in the past year Ohio had gained 78,300 jobs and Michigan had gained 75,800; their respective unemployment rates stood at 4.7 and 4.9 percent. (The national unemployment rate in August 2016 was 4.9 percent.)

The fact-check for this claims states: “In fact, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment has fallen in both Michigan and Ohio. Both states each saw 70,000 new jobs over the last year.”

In the first survey, more than 4,000 participants read a story citing Trump’s claim about a rising crime wave. Some read an uncorrected story, another group read a story with the correction included, and another group read the correction along with a disparagement of the accuracy of FBI statistics from Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort, who claimed the FBI statistics are suspect because the agency had failed to charge Clinton over the private email server scandal.

“Though Trump’s supporters were more likely than Clinton’s to believe that crime had increased or not declined significantly over the previous ten years, corrective information reduced misperceptions among supporters of both candidates,” report the researchers. By how much? After reading the story with the correction, the perceived level of crime dropped on a five-point scale from an average of 4.17 to 3.31 for Trump voters and from an average of 3.3 to 2.7 for Clinton voters. The views of both Trump and Clinton voters about crime rates became more accurate when presented with factual information.

Among people who read the story that included Manafort’s comments, the perceived level of crime dropped from 4.17 to only 3.62 among Trump supporters, from 3.3 to 2.9 for Clinton voters. This suggests that whataboutism can work.

But none of this changed how people viewed the candidate. The participants were asked to rate him on a five-point favorability/unfavorability scale before and after reading the fact-check. The researchers found “no significant effects of the fact-check on favorability toward Trump regardless of respondents’ candidate preference.” They conclude: “Fact-checks can still spur people to hold more factually accurate beliefs. However, these changes in belief accuracy do not seem to lead to corresponding changes in attitudes toward the candidate being fact-checked.”

And the second claim? Around 1,500 participants sorted into Trump and Clinton supporters were asked in advance to watch the first presidential debate and to respond to a survey that closed at noon the day after. The participants were also surveyed five days later. The researchers again found that “fact-checking reduced misperceptions but had no discernible effects on participants’ candidate preferences, including supporters of the candidate who had been fact-checked.”

The authors acknowledge some limitations on their research:

First, we did not test a fact-check of a Clinton misstatement and cannot evaluate how her supporters would have reacted. Second, Trump was infamous for extreme exaggerations and misstatements, which may have made some respondents receptive to fact-checking but also prepared his supporters to rationalize their continued support for him.

In 2016, journalist Salena Zito famously summed up reactions to Trump’s constant stream of hyperbole and lies: “The press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.” These studies seemy to bolster that idea. As the researchers write, “Trump supporters took fact-checks literally, but not seriously enough to affect how they felt toward their preferred candidate.”

This is disturbing. If politicians suffer essentially no diminution of support from being wrong and/or lying, they’ll have no reason to hew to the truth. And the proliferation of lies debases public discourse and inflames partisan passions.

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Tech Stocks Soar, Bonds Snore, As Oil Suffers Worst Week In Six Months

Tech Stocks Soar, Bonds Snore, As Oil Suffers Worst Week In Six Months

Well that was a week…

China was mixed on the week with larges caps flat to down and small cap tech soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks were also mixed with Germany dominating and UK lagging…

Source: Bloomberg

DAX tested up to its record high…

Source: Bloomberg

In the US the picture was a little less mixed with Small Caps unable to hold gains while Nasdaq soared (but late-day weakness today spoiled the party)…Nasdaq 100 is up 5 weeks in a row (and 14 of the last 16 weeks)

Source: Bloomberg

Dow crossed above 29,000 for the first time today…

Source: Bloomberg

Futures give a much clearer picture on the week’s craziness however…

Breadth has worsened as this market surged higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Defensives handily outperformed cyclicals on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Value stocks relative to Growth plunged to a new cycle low

Source: Bloomberg

US Defense stocks soared to a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

And then there’s AAPL (up 15 of the last 16 weeks)…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit protection costs collapsed further this week and equity protection also plunged with VIX back to a 12 handle…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably VIX Call volumes are soaring as the fear index plunges…

Source: Bloomberg

HY Bond risk dropped to its lowest since 2019’s April lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields tumbled the last two days, leaving them unchanged since Monday’s close and marginally higher on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y is back below the pre-Iran-missile-strike levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Bund yields also surged as the European corporate bond market saw a record-smashing $100 bn of issuance (and that means lots of rate-locks)…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar dipped today but ended the week higher (after two down weeks)…

Source: Bloomberg

Big week for cryptos with Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash leading…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged after Soleimani’s death, testing up towards $8500 before fading back a little…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was the week’s biggest loser as copper and PMs clung to the green…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the week above the Soleimani-dead levels…

WTI Crude dropped over 6% on the week – its worst week since July 2019…

Finally, we have seen this kind of liquidity-fueled decoupling before…

Source: Bloomberg

And The Fed just let its balance sheet shrink by the most since May…

Source: Bloomberg

Is reality looming?


Tyler Durden

Fri, 01/10/2020 – 16:01

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2tQxUjy Tyler Durden

WTF: What The Fed?!?

WTF: What The Fed?!?

Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,

Here at the start of 2020, we’ve just said good-bye to the ‘twenty-teens’, a decade defined by central bank intervention.

Since the the Great Financial Crisis that began in late 2008, the world’s central banking cartel has increased the global money supply by a net total of roughly $14 trillion – often handing off the money-printing baton to one another over the years.

And despite being in “recovery” for the past ten years, the majority of the world’s central banks are back shoving liquidity into the system once again.

So, where has all this intervention gotten us?

Many would say to the peak of the biggest asset price bubble ever blown in history.

  • Total US Market Cap is trading at 153% of GDP —  the highest ever

  • The top 1% owns nearly half of the world’s wealth (the 500 richest own $6 trillion!)

  • The bottom 60% of the world’s adults have less than $10k/household

How did we get here?

How will these extreme imbalances resolve themselves?

Last week, Mike Maloney, Grant Williams, Charles Hugh Smith, Chris and I all convened to tackle exactly these questions.

Back in 2018, each one of us was ringing a bell warning of a massive asset price bubble. 2019, however, only saw prices further shoot the moon (S&P up 28%, Nasdaq up 35%). And ever since ‘Not-QE’ was announced by the US Fed on Oct 8th, the rate of increase has only become more manic.

Exactly WTF is going on?!?

To find out, watch this short trailer:

And then click here to watch the full 90-minute video discussion.


Tyler Durden

Fri, 01/10/2020 – 15:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/39Xnuiy Tyler Durden

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator Approaching “Extremely Bullish” Levels

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator Approaching “Extremely Bullish” Levels

BofA Global Research published a new report on Friday detailing how the Bull & Bear Indicator would need to hit a signal of over 8 to trigger a sell.

For this to happen, there need to be at least $20 billion inflows into risky assets (HY, EM debt) by mid-February, new highs in HY corps versus US Treasures, a continued rotation into energy, industrials and financials, and hedge fund equity and commodity positioning to max bullish.

BofA said the “more interesting bull & bear arguments for risk assets in 2020; we believe asset upside will be very front-loaded in 2020.”

The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator currently prints at 6.5, the most bullish since March 2018 but not yet “extremely bullish.” To achieve maximum sell, the indicator would need to reach 8.

The report noted that “new year consensus shifting bullish on liquidity (Fed/ECB/BoJ QE annualizing stunning $1.1tn past four months; global central banks cut rates 80 times past 12 months) and reduced concerns of recession, default, inflation in 2020.”

BofA said “peak bullishness and dovishness” could be realized after the signing of the trade deal on Jan. 15 and the FOMC meeting on Jan. 29.

As for signs of a stock market top, the report said investors should monitor high yield bonds (HYG), semiconductors (SOX), homebuilders (XHB), banks (BKX) for underperformance

After four months of global central banks throwing the kitchen sink at the stock market with an abudance of liqudity — it could appear that a blowoff top is nearing. 


Tyler Durden

Fri, 01/10/2020 – 15:35

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2t951Pg Tyler Durden

Short Circuit: A Roundup of Recent Federal Court Decisions

Please enjoy the latest edition of Short Circuit, a weekly feature from the Institute for Justice.

State restrictions on selling homemade food items often serve no public health and safety interest and prevent people—disproportionately women from poor and rural areas—from earning an honest living. Read more about North Dakota’s recent crackdown on food freedom in USA Today from IJ staffers Jennifer McDonald and Daryl James.

  • In 2014, a commercial flight en route to Beijing disappears over the southern Indian Ocean. All 239 passengers and crew, including three Americans, presumed dead. An investigation yields little insight as to the cause. And, says the D.C. Circuit, the district court did not err in holding that claims against Boeing and Malaysia Airlines should be brought in Malaysian courts.
  • In 2002, Congress amended the Animal Welfare Act to make clear that it applied to birds not bred for research, thereby requiring the USDA to promulgate regulations on the humane care and handling of such birds. However, to this day the USDA has issued no regulations. A violation of the Administrative Procedure Act? The case should not have been dismissed, says the D.C. Circuit.
  • After 30 years in prison for burglary and rape, North Carolina man discovers that prosecutors at his 1976 trial withheld (among other evidence) forensic results that did not link him to the crimes and a sample of the rapist’s semen. Fourth Circuit: The state courts reasonably determined that none of the withheld evidence would have had an impact on the man’s trial, so his convictions stand. Dissent: That is emphatically wrong. “[T]here is zero doubt in my mind that the cumulative effect of the suppressed evidence in this case” might well have had an impact on the trial.
  • Fourth Circuit: Virginia environmental officials must reconsider their decision to grant a permit to a pipeline company to build a compressor station (which would burn gas 24/7/365 days a year) in a historic community established by freed slaves after the Civil War. (Per Georgetown’s Civil Rights Clinic, it’s one of the few remaining Freedmen communities in the country.) Officials failed to properly consider how emissions from the station would impact the community.
  • After the University of Texas and San Antonio officials decide to remove Confederate monuments, the Sons of Confederate Veterans sue to keep the monuments in place. The claim? Removing the monuments violates our First Amendment rights because we like what the monuments stand for. Fifth Circuit: No standing. The First Amendment lets you sue to prevent suppression of your own speech, not any speech you happen to agree with.
  • Allegation: El Paso, Tex. woman is arrested on an outstanding warrant less than three days after undergoing leg surgery and while still confined to a wheelchair. Despite her physical therapist’s conclusion that she is not a candidate for crutches, jail officials take her wheelchair, require her to use crutches, and force her to carry her own food while using crutches, leading to a fall that aggravates her injuries and requires another surgery. Fifth Circuit: And that may well violate the Americans with Disabilities Act, though it’s not egregious enough to violate the Eighth Amendment.
  • For unknown reasons, unknown individuals jump out of a car and shoot at a Saginaw, Mich. restaurant. Can city officials shut down the restaurant because it was the target of a crime by unknown third parties? Two-thirds of this Sixth Circuit panel thinks maybe not.
  • Saginaw County, Mich. ordinance forbids all but one ambulance company from operating. “That’s unconstitutional!” says a second company, which starts providing services. Rather than enforce the ordinance, county officials wait six years to file a federal lawsuit asking the courts to declare that the monopoly isn’t unconstitutional after all. Which, says the Sixth Circuit ever so gently, is not a thing the government can do.
  • In a bizarre bid to defeat a client’s child porn prosecution, expert witness creates more child porn. (He manipulates photos of minors to show them having sex.) Sixth Circuit: This plan was malicious as a matter of law. So bankruptcy does not eliminate the minors’ $300k judgment against the expert.
  • Distasteful though it may be, holds the Sixth Circuit, a high school football coach does not violate Title IX by calling a player a “pussy.” (Although, suggests the dissent, he may commit intentional infliction of emotion distress.)
  • Tennessee state representative sexually harasses at least 22 women, is expelled from the legislature. His lifetime health benefits are terminated. Can he sue the officials who decided to terminate his benefits? His suit is not barred by sovereign immunity, says the Sixth Circuit.
  • Man spends three decades in prison for a double murder he did not commit after Peoria, Ill. police (allegedly) fabricated evidence and forced his confession when he was just 14 years old. He’s paroled in 2006, his sentence is commuted in 2011, and he’s pardoned in 2015. He sues the city within two years of the pardon. City: Too late! You should’ve sued once you were paroled. Seventh Circuit (en banc, over a dissent): Heck no. Central to his claims is that his conviction was invalid, so his conviction had to be invalidated before he could sue over them. And that didn’t happen until he was pardoned, so his case is timely.
  • Missouri, like many states, has a “three-tier system” of alcohol regulation that prohibits alcohol producers and distributors from having any financial interest in an alcohol retailer. Missouri officials interpret the law to prohibit alcohol producers and distributors from retail advertising. A First Amendment violation? Officials: No way! The statute doesn’t say anything about speech; it merely bans advertising. Eighth Circuit: … Oh, that’s it? We thought you were gonna keep going. No, that’s definitely unconstitutional.
  • Allegation: After meeting with his lawyer, Florida inmate is escorted back to his cell by a prison guard. The guard orders him to sit. Then stand. Then sit. Then stand. When the inmate asks what’s up, the guard pepper sprays him, slams him on the ground, pulls down his pants, and forces a finger up his anus. District Court: I don’t believe you. Summary judgment for the defendant. Eleventh Circuit: That’s the jury’s call, not yours. Also, we repudiate an earlier decision that suggested that maybe a little bit of sexual assault in prison is okay.
  • Then-U.S. congresswoman raises $800k for her charity, disburses only $1.2k for charitable purposes, spending the vast majority on personal expenses. At trial, the district court dismisses a juror who indicated during deliberations that he’d had a divine revelation that the congresswoman was not guilty on all counts. She’s convicted. Eleventh Circuit (over a dissent): The judge did not err by dismissing the juror. Dissent: The majority misunderstands “the vernacular of a substantial segment of our citizenry,” and its decision will permit eligible jurors who believe God speaks to them to be stricken from jury pools.
  • And in en banc news: Texas high court denies review of rape conviction, 50-year sentence but inexplicably fails to tell petitioner for eight months, causing him to miss deadline to seek review in federal court. He files his habeas petition eight days after learning of the denial. District court: Tough. You should’ve pursued your rights more diligently. Fifth Circuit: No, the court error gave rise to more time to pursue his deadline. And there’ll be no en banc rehearing, despite the protestations of Judge Smith who finds the state’s refusal to seek rehearing “astonishing” and the panel decision full of “obvious flaw[s]” (such as referring to the state as “the government,” a term “uniformly reserved” for the feds).
  • And in task force news: A Third Circuit task force studying the problem of mistaken eyewitnesses and wrongful convictions has issued a report recommending a commendable series of best practices for lineups, interviews, and more. (H/t to the inestimable CA3blog.)

Under the borough’s rental inspection ordinance, Pottstown, Penn. officials claim the authority to enter homes to inspect them for housing code violations without individualized probable cause and without consent from tenants or landlords. Which does not sit well with Dottie Rivera, who does not want officials poking through her perfectly well-maintained home, which she rents. So in 2017, Dottie, her husband, and their landlord joined forces with IJ to challenge the ordinance under the state constitution, which provides stronger protections against suspicionless searches and seizures than the U.S. Constitution. And this week, a state appeals court ruled, among other things, that residents need not submit to an inspection before they can challenge the ordinance. Click here to learn more.

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Brazilian Judge Blocks Gay Jesus Movie, Supreme Court Reverses

Reuters (Fabio Texeira) reported:

A Brazilian judge ordered the streaming entertainment service Netflix to stop showing a controversial movie depicting Jesus as a gay man, according to court documents made public on Wednesday.

In the ruling against Netflix, the state court judge said: “The right to freedom of expression … is not absolute.”

The First Temptation of Christ, created by Brazilian YouTube comedy group Porta dos Fundos, portrays Jesus bringing home a presumed boyfriend to meet his family.

The show, which started playing on Netflix last month as a Christmas special, has caused an uproar among Brazil’s conservative Christians.

Agence France-Presse has an update:

The head of the Supreme Federal Court, Judge Antonio Dias Toffoli, sided with the streaming platform’s appeal against a temporary injunction banning the movie….

“One cannot suppose that a humorous satire has the ability to weaken the values of the Christian faith, whose existence is traced back more than two thousand years, and which is the belief of the majority of Brazlian citizens,” the judge said.

Unfortunately,

On Christmas Eve, the production company’s headquarters in Rio de Janeiro were attacked with Molotov cocktails. No one was hurt. Police said several men with their faces covered took part in the assault.

Police have identified a man named Eduardo Fauzi as a suspect after analyzing security camera footage. He fled to Russia.

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