11 Cases Everyone Should Know from the White and Taft Courts

Here is another preview of the 11-hour video library from our new book, An Introduction to Constitutional Law: 100 Supreme Court Cases Everyone Should KnowThis post will focus on cases from the White and Taft Courts.

Buchanan v. Warley (1917)

Hammer v. Dagenhart (1918)

Schenck v. United States (1919)

Debs v. U.S. (1919)

Abrams v. U.S. (1919)

Pennsylvania Coal Co. v. Mahon (1922)

Adkins v. Children’s Hospital (1923)

Meyer v. Nebraska (1923)

Pierce v. Society of Sisters (1925)

Gitlow v. People of the State of New York (1925)

Buck v. Bell (1927)

You can also download the E-Book or stream the videos.

 

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Small Businesses Benefit From Deregulation But Remain Stymied by Trump’s Trade Policy

Perhaps it’s a sign of the times that the Trump administration’s efforts to reduce burdensome business regulations leave observers baffled because the measures are not intended to stroke big business.

“Time and again, his deregulatory moves as president have drawn the ire of the very companies that were expected to benefit,” The Washington Post noted earlier this month.

The Post went on to point out that “major oil companies” did not like a new Environmental Protection Agency plan “to eliminate mandates paring methane leaks from oil wells.”

Never mind that large companies benefit from regulatory red-tape that can hobble smaller competitors. And small companies really do suffer disproportionately from regulations.

“Considering all federal regulations, all sectors of the U.S. economy, and all firm sizes, federal regulations cost $8,086 per employee per year in 2008,” according to a 2010 study from the Small Business Administration (SBA). “For firms with fewer than 20 employees, the cost is $10,585 per employee per year. The cost is $7,454 in medium-sized firms, and $7,755 in large firms.”

“Costs per employee thus appear to be at least 36 percent higher in small firms than in medium-sized and large firms,” the SBA concluded.

Revisiting the issue in 2016, a U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation study found “federal regulations alone are estimated to cost the American economy as much as $1.9 trillion a year in direct costs, lost productivity, and higher prices. The costs to smaller businesses with 50 employees or fewer are nearly 20% higher than the average for all firms.”

For small start-up businesses, first-year regulatory costs average $83,019, according to the National Small Business Association. That’s in addition to the hassles and time-suck of figuring out what rules apply—responsibilities handled by dedicated staff at large firms.

This disproportionate impact of red tape on small businesses isn’t exactly a revelation. Buried in The Washington Post‘s piece on the Trump administration’s deregulatory efforts is an acknowledgement that “the EPA’s proposal would benefit smaller oil producers that are less able to absorb the costs of methane-monitoring and repair programs.”

Not only do small businesses have a tougher time navigating the regulatory spider web, they also face the very real risk that large firms with lots of clout will “capture” regulators and use them to hamper less-connected competitors. That’s not a new or easily remedied phenomenon.

A century ago, Harvey Washington Wiley, the first head of the agency that became the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), worked “hand in glove with firms that benefited from his enforcement of the pure food law,” according to historian Clayton Anderson Coppin and economist Jack C. High in their 1999 book, The Politics of Purity. “Wiley helped these firms gain a competitive advantage over their rivals.”

Generations later, the FDA remains a poster child for regulatory capture, with large firms employing former regulatory staff and benefiting from close ties to the agency.

No wonder roughly half of surveyed small business owners told the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) in 2017 that regulations are a “very serious” or “somewhat serious” problem. They may be enough of a problem to act as a significant deterrent to trying to launch a business at all. Slumping entrepreneurialism has prompted much hand-wringing in recent years as fewer Americans have made the attempt to launch new companies.

So when the SBA issues an admittedly self-congratulatory announcement about “changes to 18 specific rules that reduced the regulatory burden for small business,” we would expect any resulting applause to come from the small outfits that benefit. Major players—who long ago mastered the complexities of regulatory compliance and may now face more worries about competitors nipping at their heels—should be expected to be rather less thrilled.

In fact, while regulation still remains a pressing concern in the latest NFIB survey, it has declined in importance relative to other issues in the two years since half of independent business owners called it a “very serious” or “somewhat serious” problem. During that time, the current administration has pressed forward with plans to roll back rules affecting multiple industries, and to ease enforcement of some rules that remain in place.

Although the president is prone to overstate his victories, roughly five regulations have been repealed for every new one implemented, according to the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

Given the Trump administration’s recognition of the burdens imposed on businesses—small firms in particular—by government regulations, it’s important to point out the president’s biggest blind spot on the issue. “Trump is a protectionist in many ways, and tariffs are taxes and regulations on the border are regulations on consumers,” Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform told Reason‘s John Stossel last month.

Many small businesses sell imported goods that are deliberately made more expensive and therefore less attractive to consumers by protectionist policies.

Theoretically, that’s supposed to be addressed by the Trump administration’s plan to promote domestic manufacturing. But “tariffs make [the] ‘made in the US’ model too costly,” warns the National Retail Federation. That’s because small U.S. manufacturers themselves often rely on components from overseas, and trade barriers make those materials more expensive and raise the ultimate price of the goods they produce.

As a result, “economic confidence among small firms fell in August to the lowest level since November 2012,” the Wall Street Journal reported recently. “Forty-five percent of small firms said the tariff announcement would impact their business.”

The Trump administration’s burdensome trade policies are offsetting the good the administration has done through deregulation in other areas of the economy. Jettisoning protectionism would be an effective way for the administration to live up to its promise to reduce government intrusiveness with the greatest boon going to small businesses and American consumers.

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Platts: 6 Commodity Charts To Watch This Week

Platts: 6 Commodity Charts To Watch This Week

Via S&P Global Platt’s ‘The Barrel’ blog,

Oil markets are scrutinizing the export and stock balance of OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia this week, following attacks on critical oil infrastructure. Brazil’s corn exports and the success of Gazprom’s European auction platform are also among our latest pick of energy and commodity market trends.

1. Saudi Arabia looks to plug oil export gap in wake of attacks

What’s happening?  The devastating aerial attacks on Saudi Arabia’s key oil infrastructure last week brought into acute focus the falling crude supply buffer held by the world’s biggest oil exporter to shield against market trauma from upsets to its oil industry. Since OPEC cuts were launched in 2017, Saudi Arabia has been drawing on its crude stocks to help maintain export flows at a time of growing crude domestic demand for its expanding refining capacity. Official figures show Saudi crude stocks have shrunk over 40% since 2015, the majority of which has occurred under OPEC cuts.

What’s next? Oil markets will closely monitor the recovery of damaged Saudi production capacity. Attention will focus on any efforts to fill crude or products supply shortfalls, as Riyadh struggles to meet both its crude exports contracts and meet domestic fuel demand as it diverts some crude away from domestic refining.

2. Gazprom’s European gas sales through online auctions soar

What’s happening? It is now one year since Gazprom Export held the first auction on its Electronic Sales Platform (ESP), and since then more than 12.6 Bcm of gas has been sold to European buyers. That is almost enough to meet the demand of Austria and Hungary combined, and would outpace the expected production next year of the giant Groningen field in the Netherlands.

What’s next? The ESP has evolved from a simple auction platform to a dynamic sales tool, with Gazprom Export likely to continue to use it to sell surplus gas onto the European market regardless of price as it continues its strategy of prioritizing volume over value.

3. Brisk pace of S America corn shipments weigh on US exports

What’s happening?  Following a record harvest this year, Brazil has been exporting corn at a brisk pace. Brazil corn production is expected to reach 99.98 million mt in 2018-2019. Corn exports hit a monthly record of 7.6 million mt in August. The US Department of Agriculture expects Brazil to export 38 million mt in 2018-2019 (March 2019-February 2020). Argentina, another major corn producer, is seeing robust export growth, with a jump of 66% on year during March-August this year.

What’s next? Markets will be keenly watching the progress of corn exports from South America, as the fast pace of shipments from Brazil and Argentina keeps US exports under pressure. Moreover, corn harvesting has also started for major producer Ukraine. As the US harvest nears, the price spread between the US and South American corn has narrowed, but US corn prices are still expected to remain uncompetitive through January 2020, according to the USDA.

4. West Canada gas stocks on track to end injection season at 13-year low

What’s happening? Although US gas storage levels are near the five-year average as the injection season begins to wind down, inventories above the border in West Canada remain on track to close out the season at a 13-year low. Western Canadian production was down 0.7 Bcf/d summer over summer, and there have been injection curtailments on the NOVA Gas Transmission system. This has led to the region only injecting 67% of the five-year average, according to Platts Analytics.

What’s next? If this injection rate continues, Western Canada will end summer at its lowest volume since 2006. AECO futures for the 2019-2020 winter strip suggest the market is not anticipating these risks. The market could be expecting strong production to help offset low storage, but with the gas-focused rig count stalling near all-time lows, this seems unlikely.

5. Nordic power house in grand shape heading into winter

What’s happening? Sweden’s power exports are booming this year due to a surge in wind farm installations and demand from neighboring Finland. While completion of Finland’s 1.6 GW Olkiluoto-3 nuclear plant enters a tenth year of delay, Sweden has added 2.3 GW of wind this year alone, outpacing stalled onshore wind development in Germany and the UK.

What’s next? A Nordic wind boom means Scandinavia’s vast hydro reservoirs can afford to take stock through the summer ahead of a winter payday. As Nordic links to other markets are built, the region’s generators are increasingly well placed to take advantage of bountiful hydro, and now wind, resource.

6. Coking coal prices diverge on China, India buying behaviour

What’s happening? Coking coal prices are widening between grades, as global buyers reduce demand on weaker steel demand. China has prioritized buying low-vol coals over premium mid-vols as remaining import volumes under coal quotas shrunk. “Vol” refers to volatile matter – lower volatile matter increases coke production yield. Premium mid vol coking coals typically see regular spot demand in India, which is suffering an economic downturn. Post-monsoon spot buying in India is yet to fortify and inventory has been left to run down, while Europe and Brazil are needing less spot tons. Premium mid vol coking coals, such as Goonyella, Moranbah North and Illawara, are seeing the weakest pricing relative to benchmark Peak Downs and other premium low-vol HCC brands all year.

What’s next? Forward Chinese met coal import demand is facing uncertainty as coking coal volumes are anticipated to reach 2018 totals during September. This potential reduction in quotas for the fourth quarter may cut into demand for premium low-vol HCC, the grade most sought out by Chinese buyers. An extension to coking coal volumes under China’s import quota may be needed to help balance the market.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 09/23/2019 – 11:05

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Nomura Exposes “Gap-Up Or Shock-Down” Scenarios In Play Post-Quad-Witch

Nomura Exposes “Gap-Up Or Shock-Down” Scenarios In Play Post-Quad-Witch

Friday’s trade headlines spoiled the typical Quad-Witch option expiration party but the machines did their best to ramp the S&P back to 3,000’s pin by the close (but failed).

Hope-filled weekend headlines on trade sparked a rebound early but US and European data (and oil chaos) ruined that party again, sending S&P notably back below 3,000 as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott notes, after Friday’s options expiration, the S&P is “unshackled” with ~ 34% of the overall $Gamma across all strikes coming-off, in particular with the enormous “Long $Gamma” which was pinning-us ~3000 in SPX for the past few weeks.

This, McElligott warns, opens the market up to his “peak into Op-Ex then fade thereafter into Month-End” thesis:

the “typical” post- September Op-Ex seasonal then sees SPX trade meaningfully LOWER out over the next 1-2w, largely as the “demand flows” from Overwriters and Corporates then disappear following Expiration and “buyback blackout” respectively – and especially in the context of the back-test on 1m forward returns coming out of the Sep Op-Ex, when $Delta is so extremely “long” (currently at 97.7th %ile)

However, the urgency of the $funding drama at the start of last week “shocked” a new macro-catalyst in place to alter this aforementioned seasonal “SPX LOWER“ flow, and instead, introduced an idiosyncratic “Fed policy escalation” input to the mix: the inevitable re-expansion of the Fed balance sheet as a “bullish Equities” narrative.

As previously-stated, in the post-GFC regime, the muscle memory for the majority of Equities investors has conditioned them to simply think “balance sheet expansion = QE” and thus, risks a “BULLISH risk-asset sentiment shock”…at least in my mind until the color comes from Fed that, for now, the BS expansion will be something more focused on “stopping the reserve shrinkage” instead of “new incremental liquidity pumping “above and beyond”…

THUS, we are talking about a “QE-Lite” and NOT the current market misnomer of “Outright QE” to aggressively expand Reserves in the system

This set-up is why on Thursday last week I provided new “upside” and “downside” targets – because with the prior extreme in “Long $Gamma” clearing and now allowing us to move again, there is potential “gap up” / “shock down” in-play:

UPSIDE – technically we still see large $Gamma strikes at 3000 ($6.5B), 3025 ($5.1B), 3040 ($3.6B) and 3050 ($7.7B), which in conjunction with “under-positioning” across various fund types could drive that “chase” behavior as we approach Q4.

DOWNSIDE – we see the convergence of three “accelerant flows” in the same “clustered” price-level region approx. @ 2935-2945 (although well away from current “spot”)

  • Gamma vs Spot “Flip” level at SPX Futures 2936

  • Delta vs Spot would pivot @ ~2938

  • Nomura QIS CTA model’s current deleveraging “sell trigger” estimate for the SPX futures position sitting below 2943

So, 3050 or 2935 – which comes first? We suspect the next trade-deal headline will be the arbiter of that decision, but for now, bonds seem to be signaling the downside.

Source: Bloomberg

With 10Y Yields down for the 6th straight day – the longest streak since 2018.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 09/23/2019 – 10:47

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Blain: Investors Will Be Asking Themselves: “How Could We Have Been So Stupid?”

Blain: Investors Will Be Asking Themselves: “How Could We Have Been So Stupid?”

Blain’s morning porridge, submitted by Bill Blain of Shard Capital

“Don’t just book it.. Thomas Cook it.. Perhaps not..”

It’s the Autumn equinox… Winter is coming…

Interesting week in prospect with the great and the good hobnobbing in New York for the UN Climate Action gab-fest.  Which global leader will win the prize for the greatest display of overdone sycophancy to a) Greta Thunberg, b) Donald Trump (who won’t be there..), or for snubbing Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro. I know which ones I wouldn’t vote for.  Whatever happens in NY, it’s clear Greta has changed the global agenda on Climate chance – putting it at the top of every politicians to-do list.  Germany has clearly been listening – the new black-zero Carbon programme trumps anything else in Europe.

Elsewhere I can only giggle that its all coming apart at WeWork – exactly as predicted months ago. The sparkling consciousness changing Tech company that is really just a property letting agency looks on the edge of self-implosion following the pulled IPO.  Its possible the frankly weird CEO could be ousted this week. Its going to trigger some serious reassessment of the unicorn sector/model – lots of comment about 2000 dot.com boom all over again.  Yet again global investors will be asking themselves: “how could we have been so stupid??”  There is always another charlatan selling the deeds to a snake oil mine waiting somewhere in the wings.

It’s time to look again at the real world..

And talking of the real world and real assets…   I can only assume Scotland’s poor showing at the World Cup on Sunday was due to worry about how they get home. There travels plans are sponsored by Thomas Cook.  Aircraft are one of my favourite real assets….

Its sad day for holidaymakers as 178 year old Thomas Cook goes to the wall. The authorities were expecting it, and a massive repatriation programme has gone into motion.

What killed Thomas Cook?  Liquidity will be listed on the death certificate, but the many issues it failed to address were all about its changing competitive landscape in terms of competition from the collapse in Sterling, Low Cost Carriers, destinations like Egypt, Turkey and Tunisa becoming politically unattractive, new holidays formats like AirBnB, staycations and increasing passenger independence.  The sad fact is the days of the package holiday were over years ago, and Thomas Cook never realised it – which is why it’s been in trouble so long.

What does the collapse do to Aircraft financing deals? Thomas Cook leased most of its 116 Airbus and Boeing aircraft from 38 different leasing companies, who will have financed these aircraft though a mix of sources, including debt, securitisations and private placements.  I understand at least one of its larger Airbuses is also a reserve tanker for the RAF! 

Although it sounds like a huge number of aircraft are suddenly hitting the aircraft used-plane lot, it should not be too destabilising. In fact, if you get shown and cheap aviation finance offers, this may be an opportunity to buy deals cheap on any panic. 

What may trigger a bout of selling is general fear about aviation as a whole.  Airlines go broke with monotonous regularity, and Thomas Cook will certainly rank among the larger collapses.  The potential problem is rentals from the Aircraft Thomas Cook was using will dry up until the aircraft can be released or sold – meaning any deals financing these planes will likely underperform. 

How quickly the planes are re-let or sold depends on a number of factors.

The leasing companies would have been watching the company’s death throes very carefully and will have been prepared. They will have already sent crews to fly out the aircraft to sites where they fix them up and rebadge them.  (Planes from the collapse of Monarch were up and flying in new colours very swiftly just a few years ago.) The lessors will already have taken control of their assets, which includes all the documentation on each plane to prove their maintenance and service records are up to date.  More to the point they will already have earmarked potential purchasers/users. 

For popular aircraft types – particularly the Airbus A320/321s, there will be ready demand from airlines suffering as a result of the grounding of the Boeing 737 Max series.  With over 400 Maxes grounded across the world, airlines have big airplane shaped holes in the flight schedules. The larger Airbus A300s and the Boeing 757 and 767’s might prove slower to shift – so check any deals to see if they include these types. I’ll be talking with industry experts today to identify which deals to worry about – if any!

A number of investors have told me they are concerns the aviation industry is looking toppy – quoting concerns about what will have to aviation values in a general recession, how the growing demand from China can be sustained if the Chinese economy is slowing to more “normal” rates and what the effects of climate change protests will be on the long-term future of air-travel.  I’d balance these all with growing middles classes across the globe, especially in Asia, and the fact Aviation contributes a fraction of the Co2 of the fashion industry.

More generally the Aviation market is moving towards smaller regional aircraft, and the demise of the Airbus superjumbo A380 programme demonstrates it’s the smaller more versatile aircraft that are in demand.  The lack of significant new orders for larger types like the Boeing Dreamliner and its Airbus competitor the A350 is a concern – but long-haul travel is not going to vanish!

Sticking on the Aviation theme this morning, there is some very peculiar stuff going on re the Boeing B737 Max story.  Last week there was a very well-informed article in the NYT that effectively put the blame for the Lion Air and Ethiopian crashes back onto the airlines and crews – suggesting the companies lacked basic safety and maintenance competence, while the crews were poorly trained and not proper airmen. The story highlighted conflict between the investigating authorities in Indonesia and Ethiopia with Boeing, stopping just short of accusing both countries of corruption.  It was very well briefed.   (Check the website for links to the story.)

It looks likely the Indonesian crash report (probably to be released in November) will blame design and oversight failures at Boeing – and accept there were maintenance and pilot errors. It does sound like something of a distraction – the basic problem is Boeing kept on modernising the B-737 until it became and unstable Frankenstein of a plane, where Boeing put in systems and software pilots were unaware of.  It’s raising all kinds of questions about just how close Boeing is to its regulator, the FAA, and did it push through approvals for a flawed plane.  Its also hit passenger and pilot confidence in Boeing – yet such is the demand for new aircraft, Boeing stock remains hardly touched!


Tyler Durden

Mon, 09/23/2019 – 10:25

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Co-Author of San Francisco’s E-Cigarette Ban Wants the FDA to Silence His Opponents

San Francisco Supervisor Shamann Walton, co-author of that city’s pending ban on the sale of e-cigarettes, is complaining that the campaign for Proposition C, a Juul-backed 2019 ballot initiative that would overturn his ordinance, violates federal restrictions on commercial statements about vaping products. Walton’s claim vividly shows how the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) suppresses truthful, nonmisleading statements about the nicotine products it regulates. He wants to take that censorship a step further, arguing that it should also apply to political speech that is unambiguously protected by the First Amendment.

In a recent letter to the FDA, Walton cites a Proposition C ad in which a former smoker says she quit with the help of e-cigarettes after unsuccessfully trying nicotine gum and patches. He also a mentions a presentation in which Proposition C campaign manager Tom Hsieh described e-cigarettes as less harmful than the conventional, combustible kind and called them “a legitimate off-ramp for people who are addicted to cigarettes.” Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb has said essentially the same thing, calling e-cigarettes an “off-ramp for adults who want to migrate off combustible tobacco and onto e-cigs,” a trend he described as a “tremendous public health opportunity.”

Walton nevertheless argues that statements like those, no matter how truthful, are prohibited by FDA regulations that say e-cigarette manufacturers may not promote their products as less dangerous than tobacco cigarettes or as a smoking cessation aid unless those claims have been approved by the FDA. “Juul appears to be using the electioneering in San Francisco to systematically advance unauthorized health-related marketing claims about its products’ advantages to consumers,” he writes. “These messages do not merely portray Juul as a safer alternative to traditional cigarettes—but also as a more effective smoking cessation option than FDA-approved products [such] as Chantix, Nicorette, nicotine patches and gum.”

The first thing to note about the statements to which Walton objects is that they happen to be true. In a recent interview with CBS News, David Abrams, a professor of social and behavioral sciences at NYU, explained that studies of biomarkers in smokers who have switched to vaping find that they are exposed to far fewer hazardous substances, at far lower levels, than people who continue to smoke. “E-cigarettes are way less harmful than cigarettes,” he said, “and they can and do help smokers switch if they can’t quit.”

Abrams also noted a randomized clinical study that found e-cigarettes are nearly twice as effective in smoking cessation as other nicotine replacement products. Vaping “delivers nicotine in a very satisfying way without the major harms of burning tobacco,” he said. “If we lose this opportunity, I think we will have blown the single biggest public health opportunity we’ve ever had in 120 years to get rid of cigarettes and replace them with a much safer form of nicotine.”

The second thing to note about the statements Walton wants to suppress is that they are part of a political campaign, not commercial advertisements for Juul or any other specific product. While the FDA has scolded Juul for statements about the relative hazards of smoking and vaping in the context of presentations to high school students by company representatives, trying to restrict political speech is another matter.

“The law places restrictions on tobacco companies,” Jim Sutton, an attorney for the Proposition C campaign, told the San Francisco Chronicle. “If you look at the ads, there’s no tobacco companies making claims in those ads. Those are individuals who say vaping products help them quit smoking….They have a First Amendment right to say that.”

Juul spokesman Ted Kwong also highlighted the constitutional implications of Walton’s claim. “The statements alluded to in the letter encompass the heart of free, political speech,” he said. “They are not promotional statements about any particular product, but are advocacy in support of an important policy position.”

Jon Golinger, an attorney who teaches election law at Golden Gate University, agrees that the distinction is constitutionally significant. “There are two totally different standards for selling products to consumers and selling political ads and political campaigns to voters,” he told the Chronicle. “In the context of ballot measures, there are virtually no truth standards other than the BS meter of the voters.”

Walton portrays the Proposition C campaign’s statements as a form of commercial speech subject to FDA restrictions. But what he is actually doing is urging the federal government to censor statements by his political opponents.

In fact, Walton’s argument would make Proposition C itself illegal. The ballot initiative’s “findings and conclusions” include the statement that “vapor products are designed for the express purpose of reducing the deadly effects of combustible cigarette smoking.” The initiative also says it aims to “preserve the harm-reduction potential of vapor products.” By Walton’s logic, such statements violate FDA regulations and should not be allowed, even though they are the heart of the argument for Proposition C.

It’s bad enough that e-cigarette prohibitionists claim to be protecting public health when they are actually undermining it by banning a product that provides a much less hazardous alternative to smoking. Now they are arguing that the businesses targeted by their bans should be silenced by the federal government, lest they point out the faulty logic of prohibition.

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Giuliani Hits Bidens With New $3 Million “Ukraine-Latvia-Cyprus” Money Laundering Accusation

Giuliani Hits Bidens With New $3 Million “Ukraine-Latvia-Cyprus” Money Laundering Accusation

Rudy Giuliani leveled serious new claims at the Bidens in a series of Monday morning tweets. Chief among them is a claim that $3 million was laundered to former Vice President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, via a “Ukraine-Latvia-Cyprus-US” route – a revelation he claims was “kept from you by Swamp Media.” 

Giuliani also says that Obama’s US embassy instructed Cyprus not to reveal the dollar amount

Trump’s personal attorney then mentioned China – where journalist Peter Schweizer reported Joe and Hunter Biden flew in 2013 on Air Force Two. Two weeks later, Hunter’s firm inked a private equity deal for $1 billion with a subsidiary of the Chinese government’s Bank of China, which expanded to $1.5 billion, according to an article by Schweizer’s in the New York Post

Giuliani then went on to tweet that the Bidens lied about not discussing Hunter’s overseas business.

On Saturday, Joe Biden said he “never” spoke with Hunter about the Ukrainian energy company that Hunter sat on the board of while being paid $50,000 per month. As you’re doubtless aware by now, the elder Biden threatened to withhold $1 billion in US loan guarantees from Ukraine if they didn’t fire the investigator probing the company, Burisma. 

Hunter, however, admitted in July that the two did speak about his Ukraine business “just once,” telling the New Yorker “Dad said, ‘I hope you know what you are doing,’ and I said, ‘I do’

Rudy then lashed out at the Democratic party, which he said would “own” Biden’s scandals if hey don’t “call for investigation of Bidens’ millions from Ukraine and billions from China.” 

Here’s what we know about Hunter’s dealings in China based on Schweizer’s reporting via our May report:

  • Hunter Biden and his partners created several LLCs involved in multibillion-dollar private equity deals with Chinese government-owned entities. 
  • The primary operation was Rosemont Seneca Partners – an investment firm founded in 2009 and controlled by Hunter Biden, John Kerry’s stepson Chris Heinz, and Heniz’s longtime associate Devon Archer. The trio began making deals “through a series of overlapping entities” under Rosemont. 
  • In less than a year, Hunter Biden and Archer met with top Chinese officials in China, and partnered with the Thornton Group – a Massachusetts-based consultancy headed by James Bulger – son of famed mob hitman James “Whitey” Bulger. 
  • According to the Thornton Group’s Chinese-language website, Chinese executives “extended their warm welcome” to the “Thornton Group, with its US partner Rosemont Seneca chairman Hunter Biden (second son of the now Vice President Joe Biden.” 
  • Officially, the China meets were to “explore the possibility of commercial cooperation and opportunity,” however details of the meeting were not published to the English-language version of the website. 
  • “The timing of this meeting was also notable. It occurred just hours before Hunter Biden’s father, the vice president, met with Chinese President Hu Jintao in Washington as part of the Nuclear Security Summit,” according to Schweizer. 
  • Perhaps most damning in terms of timing and optics, just twelve days after Hunter and Joe Biden flew on Air Force Two to Beijing, Hunter’s company signed a “historic deal with the Bank of China,” described by Schweizer as “the state-owned financial behemoth often used as a tool of the Chinese government.” To accommodate the deal, the Bank of China created a unique type of investment fund called Bohai Harvest RST (BHR). According to BHR, Rosemont Seneca Partners is a founding partner

It was an unprecedented arrangement: the government of one of America’s fiercest competitors going into business with the son of one of America’s most powerful decisionmakers.

Chris Heinz claims neither he nor Rosemont Seneca Partners, the firm he had part ownership of, had any role in the deal with Bohai Harvest. Nonetheless, Biden, Archer and the Rosemont name became increasingly involved with China. Archer became the vice chairman of Bohai Harvest, helping oversee some of the fund’s investments. –New York Post

And while Hunter Biden had “no experience in China, and little in private equity,” the Chinese government for some reason thought it would be a great idea to give his firm business opportunities instead of established global banks such as Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs. 

Also in December 2014, a Chinese state-backed conglomerate called Gemini Investments Limited was negotiating and sealing deals with Hunter Biden’s Rosemont on several fronts. That month, it made a $34 million investment into a fund managed by Rosemont.

The following August, Rosemont Realty, another sister company of Rosemont Seneca, announced that Gemini Investments was buying a 75 percent stake in the company. The terms of the deal included a $3 billion commitment from the Chinese, who were eager to purchase new US properties. Shortly after the sale, Rosemont Realty was rechristened Gemini Rosemont.

Chinese executives lauded the deal. –New York Post

“Rosemont, with its comprehensive real-estate platform and superior performance history, was precisely the investment opportunity Gemini Investments was looking for in order to invest in the US real estate market,” said Li Ming, chairman of Sino-Ocean Land Holdings Limited and Gemini Investments. “We look forward to a strong and successful partnership.

Three years later, a crack pipe, two DC driver’s licenses and other paraphenelia would be found in a rental car Hunter Biden returned to an Arizona Hertz location in the middle of the night

The morning after the car was dropped off, a phone number belonging to a renowned local “Colon Hydrotherapist” called the Hertz. The caller identified himself as “Joseph McGee,” who told the employees that the keys were located in the gas cap as opposed to the drop box. 

Amazing how so many countries would scramble to do business with Hunter – a guy with virtually no experience who was discharged from the Navy after testing positive for cocaine – who just happened to be the Vice President’s son. 


Tyler Durden

Mon, 09/23/2019 – 10:05

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Co-Author of San Francisco’s E-Cigarette Ban Wants the FDA to Silence His Opponents

San Francisco Supervisor Shamann Walton, co-author of that city’s pending ban on the sale of e-cigarettes, is complaining that the campaign for Proposition C, a Juul-backed 2019 ballot initiative that would overturn his ordinance, violates federal restrictions on commercial statements about vaping products. Walton’s claim vividly shows how the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) suppresses truthful, nonmisleading statements about the nicotine products it regulates. He wants to take that censorship a step further, arguing that it should also apply to political speech that is unambiguously protected by the First Amendment.

In a recent letter to the FDA, Walton cites a Proposition C ad in which a former smoker says she quit with the help of e-cigarettes after unsuccessfully trying nicotine gum and patches. He also a mentions a presentation in which Proposition C campaign manager Tom Hsieh described e-cigarettes as less harmful than the conventional, combustible kind and called them “a legitimate off-ramp for people who are addicted to cigarettes.” Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb has said essentially the same thing, calling e-cigarettes an “off-ramp for adults who want to migrate off combustible tobacco and onto e-cigs,” a trend he described as a “tremendous public health opportunity.”

Walton nevertheless argues that statements like those, no matter how truthful, are prohibited by FDA regulations that say e-cigarette manufacturers may not promote their products as less dangerous than tobacco cigarettes or as a smoking cessation aid unless those claims have been approved by the FDA. “Juul appears to be using the electioneering in San Francisco to systematically advance unauthorized health-related marketing claims about its products’ advantages to consumers,” he writes. “These messages do not merely portray Juul as a safer alternative to traditional cigarettes—but also as a more effective smoking cessation option than FDA-approved products [such] as Chantix, Nicorette, nicotine patches and gum.”

The first thing to note about the statements to which Walton objects is that they happen to be true. In a recent interview with CBS News, David Abrams, a professor of social and behavioral sciences at NYU, explained that studies of biomarkers in smokers who have switched to vaping find that they are exposed to far fewer hazardous substances, at far lower levels, than people who continue to smoke. “E-cigarettes are way less harmful than cigarettes,” he said, “and they can and do help smokers switch if they can’t quit.”

Abrams also noted a randomized clinical study that found e-cigarettes are nearly twice as effective in smoking cessation as other nicotine replacement products. Vaping “delivers nicotine in a very satisfying way without the major harms of burning tobacco,” he said. “If we lose this opportunity, I think we will have blown the single biggest public health opportunity we’ve ever had in 120 years to get rid of cigarettes and replace them with a much safer form of nicotine.”

The second thing to note about the statements Walton wants to suppress is that they are part of a political campaign, not commercial advertisements for Juul or any other specific product. While the FDA has scolded Juul for statements about the relative hazards of smoking and vaping in the context of presentations to high school students by company representatives, trying to restrict political speech is another matter.

“The law places restrictions on tobacco companies,” Jim Sutton, an attorney for the Proposition C campaign, told the San Francisco Chronicle. “If you look at the ads, there’s no tobacco companies making claims in those ads. Those are individuals who say vaping products help them quit smoking….They have a First Amendment right to say that.”

Juul spokesman Ted Kwong also highlighted the constitutional implications of Walton’s claim. “The statements alluded to in the letter encompass the heart of free, political speech,” he said. “They are not promotional statements about any particular product, but are advocacy in support of an important policy position.”

Jon Golinger, an attorney who teaches election law at Golden Gate University, agrees that the distinction is constitutionally significant. “There are two totally different standards for selling products to consumers and selling political ads and political campaigns to voters,” he told the Chronicle. “In the context of ballot measures, there are virtually no truth standards other than the BS meter of the voters.”

Walton portrays the Proposition C campaign’s statements as a form of commercial speech subject to FDA restrictions. But what he is actually doing is urging the federal government to censor statements by his political opponents.

In fact, Walton’s argument would make Proposition C itself illegal. The ballot initiative’s “findings and conclusions” include the statement that “vapor products are designed for the express purpose of reducing the deadly effects of combustible cigarette smoking.” The initiative also says it aims to “preserve the harm-reduction potential of vapor products.” By Walton’s logic, such statements violate FDA regulations and should not be allowed, even though they are the heart of the argument for Proposition C.

It’s bad enough that e-cigarette prohibitionists claim to be protecting public health when they are actually undermining it by banning a product that provides a much less hazardous alternative to smoking. Now they are arguing that the businesses targeted by their bans should be silenced by the federal government, lest they point out the faulty logic of prohibition.

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US Services PMI Bounce Disappoints As Employment Contracts Most Since 2009

US Services PMI Bounce Disappoints As Employment Contracts Most Since 2009

Despite Europe’s abysmal PMI prints, US survey data was expected to rebound modestly in September as US macro data has dramatically surprised to the upside so far…

Source: Bloomberg

August saw US Services catch US Manufacturing’s cold (finally), and preliminary September data confirmed this rise – albeit with a disappointing bounce in Services.

  • U.S. Sept. Flash Manufacturing PMI Beat, printing 51.0 (Est 50.3)

  • U.S. Sept. Services Flash PMI Missed, printing 50.9 (Est. 51.4)

Still very small recovery compared to US macro…

Source: Bloomberg

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“The survey indicates that businesses continue to struggle against the headwinds of trade worries and elevated uncertainty about the outlook. Although picking up slightly, the overall rate of growth in September remained among the weakest since 2016, commensurate with GDP rising in the third quarter at a subdued annualized rate of approximately 1.5%. Prospects also look gloomy, with inflows of new business down to the lowest since 2009 and firms’ expectations of growth over the coming year stuck at one of the most subdued levels since 2012.

Jobs are now also being cut across the surveyed companies for the first time since January 2010, as firms have become more risk averse and increasingly eager to cut costs. At current levels, the survey employment index is indicative of non-farm payroll growth falling below 100,000.

“Price pressures have meanwhile also eased, with both input costs and average selling prices for goods and services dropping again in September, painting a picture of the weakest corporate inflationary pressures for a decade.

Key to the recent deterioration has been a further spill-over of the trade-led slowdown in manufacturing to the service sector. Inflows of new service sector business almost stalled in September to register the smallest rise since the survey began in 2009. A ray of light comes from manufacturing reporting some easing of headwinds, though factory conditions likewise remained among the toughest since 2009 to underscore the broad-based nature of the current lassitude.”

Finally, we note that Services Employment fell to 49.1 in September, the lowest since December 2009, from 50.4 the prior month. Still could be worse, could be Europe…

Source: Bloomberg


Tyler Durden

Mon, 09/23/2019 – 09:54

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13 Marines Charged in Human Smuggling Investigation

More than a dozen U.S. marines are facing criminal charges in a human smuggling investigation, after Border Patrol agents caught two of them—Lance Corporals Byron D. Law and David J. Salazar-Quintero—transporting three undocumented immigrants in early July. Law and Salazar-Quintero have been charged with “transportation of aliens for financial gain and aiding and abetting.”

Ten more Marines from the same division as Law and Salazar-Quintero face formal charges, the Marine Corps announced Friday. They had been detained back on July 25 by the Naval Criminal Investigative Service (NCIS). One other Marine, from a different division, was also detained by the NCIS.

There’s no word from NCIS or the Marines on the names of the other suspects. But authorities said all 13 had been charged under the Uniform Code of Military Justice, and at least five face charges for direct involvement in human smuggling.

Other suspects face charges for drug offenses, failure to obey orders, drunkenness, endangerment, larceny, and perjury.

All of the suspects were stationed at the Camp Pendleton Marine Corps base in San Diego.

“Law and Salazar-Quintero were initially charged in federal court but the case has since been turned over to the Marine Corps,” CBS reports. But the PACER system still lists the federal criminal case as being open, with a next motion hearing set for October 28 before District Judge Marilyn L. Huff.

Meanwhile, another Marine from Camp Pendleton had to be hunted down after he ditched base to go rogue and “get rid of child traffickers at the border,” as an FBI report put it.

“Job Wallace, a Marine Corps Lance Corporal, did not return to base at Camp Pendleton in California after his authorized leave ended on Sept. 17,” The Daily Beast noted this weekend. “A day later, an automatic rifle, an M14 rifle, a semi-automatic shotgun, and a pistol, all belonging to Wallace, were reported missing” and “a vehicle with his license plate number was photographed at the Fort Hancock Border Patrol checkpoint in Texas on Sept. 17.”

NCIS took Wallace into custody on Saturday night.



ELECTION 2020

The latest poll results are in, with more good news for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) and Mayor Pete Buttigieg and more bad news for Sen. Kamala Harris (D–Calif.) and Joe Biden.

In other polling news: 69 percent of voters in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll said that regardless of how they feel about Trump administration policies, they do not approve of Trump as a person.

“The poll found Trump’s approval rating rests at 45%, which is on par with where Barack Obama and Bill Clinton stood at this point in their presidencies,” notes Axios. But Trump’s personal dislike rating is at a record high:

Previously, the highest share of voters that said they disliked the president personally, regardless of their views on his policies, was 42% for George W. Bush in 2006—in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.


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