Welcome to the New World Civilization

topicshistory

Something extraordinary happened over the last few decades. For the first time in human history, a single global civilization emerged.

“We are witnessing a cultural shift of world-historic proportions,” I wrote in an essay for Reason‘s 20th anniversary. “East and West are fusing in the most momentous combination of powerful civilizations since Hellenism collided with the Middle East—leaving Christianity in its wake.”

It was 1988, the last full year of Ronald Reagan’s presidency and, we did not yet realize, of the Berlin Wall. The Soviet Union still existed. The internet as we know it—the World Wide Web, with its hyperlinks and browsers—did not. China was liberalizing but still awaited the economic reforms that would transform it into a global powerhouse and allow it to gain entry into the World Trade Organization.

Unanticipated in my Reason essay, the end of the Cold War, the rise of the internet, and China’s increased openness secured its most sweeping and accurate prediction: “Western civilization is disappearing, or, more accurately, being folded into a new world civilization.” The change wasn’t a loss but a gain.

Its fruits show up in everything from scientific articles written in English for a global audience to the worldwide spread of hip-hop and K-pop, emojis and Disney, yoga and meditation. You can buy its nonmetaphorical fruits in your supermarket. Americans didn’t eat mangos, spicy tuna rolls, or sriracha sauce when I was growing up. And you didn’t find Colonel Sanders serving southern fried chicken in Hangzhou.

We barely realize what has happened, settling for the less-than-precise term globalization. But you can have global trade or conquest or diplomatic relations without forging a global civilization. In her recent book The Year 1000, historian Valerie Hansen argues that globalization started around 1000 A.D. You could date it from the European discovery of the Americas. It certainly began long before the 1990s. World civilization is something more consequential—and entirely new.

The term civilization is slippery and often fraught with moralism: “civilization vs. barbarism,” “uncivilized behavior.” What I’m talking about is something more neutral yet absolutely essential. In his 1934 tome Judaism as a Civilization, Mordecai Kaplan offered a good definition: “the accumulation of knowledge, skills, tools, arts, literatures, laws, religions and philosophies which stands between man and external nature, and which serves as a bulwark against the hostility of forces that would otherwise destroy him.”

Kaplan’s description captures two critical dimensions that together distinguish civilization from related concepts, such as culture.

First, civilization is cumulative. It exists in time, with today’s version built on previous ones. A civilization ceases to exist when that continuity is broken. The Minoan, Sogdian, and Incan civilizations disappeared. Conversely, a civilization may evolve over a long stretch of history while the cultures that make it up pass away or change irrevocably. The Western Europe of 1980 was radically different in its social mores, religious practices, material culture, political organization, technological resources, and scientific understanding from the Christendom of 1480, yet we recognize both as Western civilization. Mao’s Communism did not eradicate Chinese civilization, although it sometimes tried.

Second, civilization is a survival technology. It comprises the many artifacts—designed and evolved, tangible and intangible—that stand between vulnerable human beings and natural threats, and that invest the world with meaning. These artifacts range from textiles to tractors, accounting systems to surgical procedures. They encompass rituals and fashions, libraries and universities, housing designs and manufacturing practices. They include the stories we tell about ourselves and the media with which we tell them.

Along with the perils and discomforts of indifferent nature, civilization protects us from the dangers posed by other humans. Ideally, it allows us to live in harmony. Eighteenth-century thinkers used the term to refer to the intellectual and artistic refinement, sociability, and peaceful interactions of the commercial city. Their concept of civilization was a liberal ideal. But rare is the civilization that exists without organized violence. At best, a civilization encourages cooperation, curbing humanity’s violent urges; at worst, it unleashes them to conquer, pillage, and enslave.

A civilization often incorporates multiple cultures, nations, and states, all contributing to its shared heritage and at times jockeying for dominance. Europe’s religious wars took place within the same civilization. Chinese civilization includes the Warring States period. Regimes may come and go while the civilization endures. One century’s leading power may not be the previous century’s or the next’s. But even as specific states or regions rise and fade in prominence, their inhabitants continue to enjoy the benefits of their civilization’s cumulative experience and knowledge.

What distinguishes a global civilization from mere globalization—or from the lopsided exchanges of conquest and colonialism—is the depth and range of resources an individual inhabitant can partake in. A civilization is a communal project, constructed mostly without direction or plan. The more people who contribute, the stronger it can be. The fewer formal barriers to shared knowledge and experiences, the more resilient and cohesive the results.

A mere generation old, our global civilization is now endangered. COVID-19 has demonstrated its value, as scientists worldwide collaborate and share data. But the pandemic has also broken previous bonds. International students are stranded in their home countries, unable to return to school. Supply chains are broken. Would-be tourists are settling for staycations.

Business travel has plummeted, and video chat can only go so far in establishing trust and sharing tacit knowledge—the hard-to-articulate know-how that requires imitation and feedback. In an August article published in Nature Human Behavior, Michele Coscia, Frank M.H. Neffke, and Ricardo Hausmann analyze corporate credit card data to track international business travel as a source of economic improvements. It is, they find, more important than trade, foreign direct investment, or migration. A complete shutdown, they estimate, would shrink global output by 17 percent.

The reason, explains Hausmann in a Project Syndicate essay, is know-how. “To run a firm, you need not only information, but also the capacity to figure things out,” he writes, noting that “one of the advantages of multinational corporations and global consulting, accounting, and law firms is that they can move that capacity to different points in their network.” They do that by putting people on planes.

As if the pandemic weren’t enough of a threat, Chinese President Xi Jinping is increasingly hostile to the outside world—and U.S. politicians are increasingly hostile not merely to the Chinese government but to its citizens. At a private dinner for CEOs in 2018, President Donald Trump reportedly suggested that most Chinese students in the U.S.—more than 350,000 in 2019—are spies. The Politico report’s source may have exaggerated Trump’s statement, but the suspicion is widespread, particularly on the right.

In May, Republican Sens. Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee introduced a bill to ban all U.S. visas for Chinese nationals seeking graduate or postgraduate study in technical fields. The draconian proposal assumes that knowledge is a fixed quantity that American professors pour into Chinese heads, allowing these foreign plants to abscond with it. But graduate students also create knowledge, many of them stay here after getting their degrees, and even those who return home continue to collaborate across borders. They contribute to our shared civilization.

The Trump administration’s drive to ban WeChat similarly threatens to sever international bonds. People in China rely on the multifunctional app to communicate, make purchases, and generally manage their lives. Friends, relatives, business contacts, and tourist destinations abroad use it to keep in touch with them. About 19 million U.S. residents use it every day. Although not free of Chinese government control, it is an essential form of international communication. China itself has banned most other forms, including Facebook and WhatsApp. Chinese people tend not to check their email, observes Technology Review‘s Karen Hao, and “emails often mysteriously disappear while transmitting across borders.”

A U.S. ban on WeChat, writes Hao, the daughter of a Chinese immigrant, “would be the weakening or severing of hundreds of millions, maybe billions, of connections—a loss undeniable albeit difficult to quantify.” Bloomberg Opinion‘s Adam Minter fears the effect on tourism, which has brought individuals in the two countries closer even as their governments fought. Restricting WeChat, he writes, “isn’t the only reason, but it is another blunt reminder to Chinese people that they’re not as welcome in the U.S. as they used to be.” And China’s increasingly repressive policies discourage Americans, myself among them, from returning to visit that country.

Of course, neither the U.S. nor China is the only potential source of common experiences and valuable ideas. Their people aren’t the only ones contributing to global civilization—or aspiring to influence its direction. The more those two nations seek to isolate themselves, the more they risk fading in prominence. The ties of civilization often prove stronger than the divisions between individual nations.

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Odds Of ‘No Deal’ Brexit Plunge As Boris Johnson Signals He Won’t Walk Away From Talks With EU

Odds Of ‘No Deal’ Brexit Plunge As Boris Johnson Signals He Won’t Walk Away From Talks With EU

Tyler Durden

Wed, 10/14/2020 – 06:31

With one day left until the beginning of a pan-European summit marketed as the final chance for EU leaders to sign off on a UK-EU trade agreement, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has signaled on Wednesday morning that his government will not walk away from the table, as it had threatened to do, prompting analysts to dramatically lower their odds for ‘no deal’.

BoJo had previously set Oct. 15, the beginning of a critical EU summit, as a soft deadline for talks.

No trade deal “is still possible, but probably would come more as an ‘accident’ at this stage than by intent,” says strategist Ned Rumpeltin. Odds down from around 40% before. “Sterling should naturally benefit as the final uncertainties are lifted,” he told Bloomberg.

The pound will remain vulnerable to trade negotiations, but the odds of a no deal have fallen to around 20%-25% and the currency should finish the year at $1.35, according to Toronto-Dominion Bank.

As is often the case in currency markets, if anxieties about ‘no deal’ continue to ease, traders may simply turn their attention to another even more troublesome issue: The second wave of COVID-19 cases that is battering Europe – with the UK again emerging as one of the worst-hit countries – which forced BoJo to concede on Wednesday that a “circuit breaker” two-week lockdown might be inevitable if the latest social distancing restrictions enacted by the British government fail to arrest the virus.

Roughly an hour after the first headlines about Johnson’s latest change of heart hit, Reuters reported that EU leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to discuss Brexit believe that progress in talks with Britain is “still not sufficient” to seal a new trade deal. The heads of the 27 EU members are also expected to agree to ramp up contingency planning, while also authorizing lead Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier to intensify talks to try and get a deal by Dec. 31, when the transition period expires.

“It is in the interests of both sides to have an agreement in place before the end of the transition period,” EU summit chairman Charles Michel said in a invitation letter to leaders. “This cannot, however, happen at any price. The coming days are decisive. Key issues include, in particular, the level playing field, fisheries and governance,” he said.

The deal sticking points remain largely unchanged: fair competition, fishing rights and dispute settlement procedures. And there’s still the issue of BoJo’s ‘Intermarket Bill’.

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European Oil Companies Will Not Tolerate Poland’s Attempt To Cancel Nord Stream 2

European Oil Companies Will Not Tolerate Poland’s Attempt To Cancel Nord Stream 2

Tyler Durden

Wed, 10/14/2020 – 06:10

Authored by Paul Antonopoulos via InfoBrics.org,

By handing out a €6.5 billion fine against Gazprom, Warsaw has obviously and massively miscalculated because it did not only antagonize the Russian energy company as was intended, but also European partners of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, which the Polish government obviously had not considered.

Even leaders within the European Union were shocked at the huge fine that Poland is attempting to impose against Nord Stream 2.

It may very well be that the Polish Office of Competition and Consumer Protection (UOKiK) has lost itself when deciding on the price of the fine against Gazprom. But regardless of that, UOKiK has apparently also exceeded its jurisdiction. As the Düsseldorf-based energy supplier Uniper reports, the existing agreements on Nord Stream 2 have nothing to do with a joint venture, which is why the Polish laws on merger controls do not apply to them. The initial plans were to finance the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline through the establishment of a joint venture. For this, however, the companies involved should have received a permit in all the countries in which they operate, as well as from Poland, the only EU state that blocked this decision. The decision for it not to be a joint venture was made without further ado so as not to waste time or money in a dispute with Polish authorities. 

The pipeline partners designed an alternative financing model for Nord Stream 2 and instead of joining Nord Stream 2 AG (Company) as a co-partner, the European energy companies are participating in the project as lenders so that Polish antitrust laws do not apply to them. However, Gazprom, the majority shareholder of Nord Stream 2 AG, has given its European partners shares in the company as a mortgage for the financing provided. If the loans from the Russian side are not paid, the European corporations automatically become the owners of Nord Stream 2 AG. Referring to this fact, the Polish antitrust authorities have declared the European partner companies to be quasi-shareholders in the pipeline project. 

With this UOKiK also justifies the exorbitant fine against Gazprom and the fines of around €55 million against Uniper (German), Wintershall (German), Engie (French), OMV (Austrian) and Shell (English-Dutch). Neither Gazprom nor Nord Stream 2 are financially at risk at the moment and the Russian group has already announced that it will take the fine to court. 

Poland is of course now aware that their attempts to fine the Nord Stream 2 project will amount to nothing. The aim of the Polish government is not so much to force a large sum of money from Gazprom in the long term, but rather to bury the pipeline project entirely. And this is the part where Warsaw has grossly miscalculated, not only European reactions, but Russian determination.

The goal to cancel Nord Stream 2 also explains why Polish authorities published their decision last week. Relations between the EU and Russia are extra strained because of the Navalny case and the situation in Belarus. France and Germany are working on new sanctions against Russia for the Navalny case and continue to apply pressure against Belarus.

Another question is how effective these measures will be. Sanctions have long degenerated into ambiguity as it is the usual way the West deals with Moscow. Russia has learnt how to adjust their economy accordingly, meaning that sanctions have turned into a farce. The West is regularly expanding its blacklists of sanctioned companies and private individuals, but there has been no significant effect. Political forces with a keen interest in the failure of Nord Stream 2 are plentiful in the West and they are currently advancing the Navalny case in the hope that it will cut the EU from Russia more strongly or permanently. This will not occur as Europe desperately needs Russian energy, which is why Nord Stream 2 is such a critical project for all involved.

Poland plays the main role in trying to cancel Nord Stream 2 and the decision by UOKiK is just another push to finally get Europe to abandon the pipeline project. According to a joint declaration by France and Germany, measures are currently being prepared for those alleged to be responsible in the Navalny case and their participation in the so-called Novichok program. 

Despite these measures, Western Europe is bringing its energy project which is important for its own future out of the danger zone, while Poland is attracting even more displeasure from EU giants through its own operation. A penalty against Gazprom may be a Russian problem, but fines against leading corporations from Germany, France, the Netherlands, Great Britain and Austria are guaranteed to leave many of Europe’s biggest capitalist angered. The effort Warsaw is making to thwart Nord Stream 2 is visibly turning opposite to what they expected as there is little doubt the Nord Stream 2 project will come to fruition and completion.

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Welcome to the New World Civilization

topicshistory

Something extraordinary happened over the last few decades. For the first time in human history, a single global civilization emerged.

“We are witnessing a cultural shift of world-historic proportions,” I wrote in an essay for Reason‘s 20th anniversary. “East and West are fusing in the most momentous combination of powerful civilizations since Hellenism collided with the Middle East—leaving Christianity in its wake.”

It was 1988, the last full year of Ronald Reagan’s presidency and, we did not yet realize, of the Berlin Wall. The Soviet Union still existed. The internet as we know it—the World Wide Web, with its hyperlinks and browsers—did not. China was liberalizing but still awaited the economic reforms that would transform it into a global powerhouse and allow it to gain entry into the World Trade Organization.

Unanticipated in my Reason essay, the end of the Cold War, the rise of the internet, and China’s increased openness secured its most sweeping and accurate prediction: “Western civilization is disappearing, or, more accurately, being folded into a new world civilization.” The change wasn’t a loss but a gain.

Its fruits show up in everything from scientific articles written in English for a global audience to the worldwide spread of hip-hop and K-pop, emojis and Disney, yoga and meditation. You can buy its nonmetaphorical fruits in your supermarket. Americans didn’t eat mangos, spicy tuna rolls, or sriracha sauce when I was growing up. And you didn’t find Colonel Sanders serving southern fried chicken in Hangzhou.

We barely realize what has happened, settling for the less-than-precise term globalization. But you can have global trade or conquest or diplomatic relations without forging a global civilization. In her recent book The Year 1000, historian Valerie Hansen argues that globalization started around 1000 A.D. You could date it from the European discovery of the Americas. It certainly began long before the 1990s. World civilization is something more consequential—and entirely new.

The term civilization is slippery and often fraught with moralism: “civilization vs. barbarism,” “uncivilized behavior.” What I’m talking about is something more neutral yet absolutely essential. In his 1934 tome Judaism as a Civilization, Mordecai Kaplan offered a good definition: “the accumulation of knowledge, skills, tools, arts, literatures, laws, religions and philosophies which stands between man and external nature, and which serves as a bulwark against the hostility of forces that would otherwise destroy him.”

Kaplan’s description captures two critical dimensions that together distinguish civilization from related concepts, such as culture.

First, civilization is cumulative. It exists in time, with today’s version built on previous ones. A civilization ceases to exist when that continuity is broken. The Minoan, Sogdian, and Incan civilizations disappeared. Conversely, a civilization may evolve over a long stretch of history while the cultures that make it up pass away or change irrevocably. The Western Europe of 1980 was radically different in its social mores, religious practices, material culture, political organization, technological resources, and scientific understanding from the Christendom of 1480, yet we recognize both as Western civilization. Mao’s Communism did not eradicate Chinese civilization, although it sometimes tried.

Second, civilization is a survival technology. It comprises the many artifacts—designed and evolved, tangible and intangible—that stand between vulnerable human beings and natural threats, and that invest the world with meaning. These artifacts range from textiles to tractors, accounting systems to surgical procedures. They encompass rituals and fashions, libraries and universities, housing designs and manufacturing practices. They include the stories we tell about ourselves and the media with which we tell them.

Along with the perils and discomforts of indifferent nature, civilization protects us from the dangers posed by other humans. Ideally, it allows us to live in harmony. Eighteenth-century thinkers used the term to refer to the intellectual and artistic refinement, sociability, and peaceful interactions of the commercial city. Their concept of civilization was a liberal ideal. But rare is the civilization that exists without organized violence. At best, a civilization encourages cooperation, curbing humanity’s violent urges; at worst, it unleashes them to conquer, pillage, and enslave.

A civilization often incorporates multiple cultures, nations, and states, all contributing to its shared heritage and at times jockeying for dominance. Europe’s religious wars took place within the same civilization. Chinese civilization includes the Warring States period. Regimes may come and go while the civilization endures. One century’s leading power may not be the previous century’s or the next’s. But even as specific states or regions rise and fade in prominence, their inhabitants continue to enjoy the benefits of their civilization’s cumulative experience and knowledge.

What distinguishes a global civilization from mere globalization—or from the lopsided exchanges of conquest and colonialism—is the depth and range of resources an individual inhabitant can partake in. A civilization is a communal project, constructed mostly without direction or plan. The more people who contribute, the stronger it can be. The fewer formal barriers to shared knowledge and experiences, the more resilient and cohesive the results.

A mere generation old, our global civilization is now endangered. COVID-19 has demonstrated its value, as scientists worldwide collaborate and share data. But the pandemic has also broken previous bonds. International students are stranded in their home countries, unable to return to school. Supply chains are broken. Would-be tourists are settling for staycations.

Business travel has plummeted, and video chat can only go so far in establishing trust and sharing tacit knowledge—the hard-to-articulate know-how that requires imitation and feedback. In an August article published in Nature Human Behavior, Michele Coscia, Frank M.H. Neffke, and Ricardo Hausmann analyze corporate credit card data to track international business travel as a source of economic improvements. It is, they find, more important than trade, foreign direct investment, or migration. A complete shutdown, they estimate, would shrink global output by 17 percent.

The reason, explains Hausmann in a Project Syndicate essay, is know-how. “To run a firm, you need not only information, but also the capacity to figure things out,” he writes, noting that “one of the advantages of multinational corporations and global consulting, accounting, and law firms is that they can move that capacity to different points in their network.” They do that by putting people on planes.

As if the pandemic weren’t enough of a threat, Chinese President Xi Jinping is increasingly hostile to the outside world—and U.S. politicians are increasingly hostile not merely to the Chinese government but to its citizens. At a private dinner for CEOs in 2018, President Donald Trump reportedly suggested that most Chinese students in the U.S.—more than 350,000 in 2019—are spies. The Politico report’s source may have exaggerated Trump’s statement, but the suspicion is widespread, particularly on the right.

In May, Republican Sens. Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee introduced a bill to ban all U.S. visas for Chinese nationals seeking graduate or postgraduate study in technical fields. The draconian proposal assumes that knowledge is a fixed quantity that American professors pour into Chinese heads, allowing these foreign plants to abscond with it. But graduate students also create knowledge, many of them stay here after getting their degrees, and even those who return home continue to collaborate across borders. They contribute to our shared civilization.

The Trump administration’s drive to ban WeChat similarly threatens to sever international bonds. People in China rely on the multifunctional app to communicate, make purchases, and generally manage their lives. Friends, relatives, business contacts, and tourist destinations abroad use it to keep in touch with them. About 19 million U.S. residents use it every day. Although not free of Chinese government control, it is an essential form of international communication. China itself has banned most other forms, including Facebook and WhatsApp. Chinese people tend not to check their email, observes Technology Review‘s Karen Hao, and “emails often mysteriously disappear while transmitting across borders.”

A U.S. ban on WeChat, writes Hao, the daughter of a Chinese immigrant, “would be the weakening or severing of hundreds of millions, maybe billions, of connections—a loss undeniable albeit difficult to quantify.” Bloomberg Opinion‘s Adam Minter fears the effect on tourism, which has brought individuals in the two countries closer even as their governments fought. Restricting WeChat, he writes, “isn’t the only reason, but it is another blunt reminder to Chinese people that they’re not as welcome in the U.S. as they used to be.” And China’s increasingly repressive policies discourage Americans, myself among them, from returning to visit that country.

Of course, neither the U.S. nor China is the only potential source of common experiences and valuable ideas. Their people aren’t the only ones contributing to global civilization—or aspiring to influence its direction. The more those two nations seek to isolate themselves, the more they risk fading in prominence. The ties of civilization often prove stronger than the divisions between individual nations.

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World Bank Has Resorted To Shaming G-20 Countries And Hedge Funds For Lending Poor Nations Money

World Bank Has Resorted To Shaming G-20 Countries And Hedge Funds For Lending Poor Nations Money

Tyler Durden

Wed, 10/14/2020 – 05:35

Apparently realizing the world’s inability to inflate away what has become a growing global debt problem, the World Bank has now instead turned to the idea of shaming the countries that hold the debt into offering “relief”.

World Bank President David Malpass said this week that The Group of 20 Nations should be offering debt relief to the poorest nations in the world “through the end of next year”, according to Bloomberg. Malpass also suggested that both “hedge funds” and “China” play a role in the efforts. 

The G-20’s “Debt Service Suspension Initiative” that it implemented in May is providing only “shallow relief” for such nations because of a lack of participation by China and private creditors, Malpass said. 

He told Bloomberg TV on Monday:

“We need to do much more. The commercial creditors were supposed to join that initiative as well, that means banks and hedge funds, for example. Unfortunately, they didn’t, and even the bilateral official creditors didn’t fully participate, so the savings for these countries, we’re talking about the poorest countries in the world, they’re still paying their debts in some cases, and so that I think should be broadened.”

Yeah David – just because countries take on debt doesn’t mean they should be obligated to repay it. And just because someone lends money doesn’t mean they’re entitled to be repaid, right?

Malpass’ take on the situation came during the World Bank and the IMF’s annual meetings, being held this week, in virtual format due to the pandemic. The world’s growing global debt problem will be a “key theme” at the gathering, Bloomberg notes.

Meanwhile, now that the idea of lending and borrowing has been dismantled, it’s probably just time to start getting used to the words debt jubilee. 

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Public Humiliation: Hitachi Develops “Fish Bubble” To Enforce Social-Distancing

Public Humiliation: Hitachi Develops “Fish Bubble” To Enforce Social-Distancing

Tyler Durden

Wed, 10/14/2020 – 05:00

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Tech company Hitachi has developed a ‘fish bubble’ that enforces social distancing by essentially humiliating anyone who gets too close to another person in public.

“Japanese tech firms step in to help prevent coronavirus infections,” reports NHK News, with a clip of the ‘fish bubble’ in action.

To “ensure people keep their distance,” the system uses sensors to detect people’s location and then projects a 2 meter circle around their body which depicts cartoon fish swimming around inside the bubble.

If a person violates the 2 meter rule, the fish “escape” the bubble and presumably the person is warned to change their behavior.

The promo video brags that the technology “can even be deployed inside elevators” and Hitachi is “hoping to get the technology commercialized quickly.”

Given that China is already linking social distancing technology to its onerous social credit score system, how long before people start receiving fines and other punishments for violating social distancing?

“Sorry, Winston, your fish escaped the bubble three times today, that’s a 10 point deduction on your social credit score. You are banned from using the Internet and won’t be able to make non-essential purchases for 7 days.”

As we have previously highlighted, companies are developing all kinds of bizarre bubbles and pods to facilitate social distancing in a post-corona “new normal” world.

Just like mask mandates, how long before this all becomes a necessity merely to go about your daily life?

*  *  *

In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Also, I urgently need your financial support here.

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Energy Traders Brace For Cold Plunge

Energy Traders Brace For Cold Plunge

Tyler Durden

Wed, 10/14/2020 – 04:15

Natural-gas futures soared to levels not seen in more than seven quarters this week, as colder weather in the latest round of forecast data suggests energy demand is set to increase. 

Natural gas futures inched towards $3 a million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Monday, closing up 5.1% at $2.881 MMBtu, their highest close since January 2019. Since July, prices have doubled with recent gains this month, around 19%, as nat gas power generation demand is set to increase. 

This is the biggest relative seasonal surge since 2016…

Natural Gas Intelligence, quoting the latest Bespoke Weather Services report, said Monday that weather shifted cooler in “another sizable addition” of gas-weighted degree days (GWDD).

Changes come throughout the 15-day forecast, and we now project October’s total GWDD count to be over 340, nearly 50 GWDD above the projection from just 10-12 days ago, quite a substantial move,” Bespoke said. “This is still well under the total demand level of the last two Octobers, however, but closer to normal. Best cooling versus normal lies in the middle of the nation, with occasional pusles into the East. Southern demand is strong the next few days, still thanks to heat” keeping cooling demand higher locally. – Natural Gas Intelligence

The forecast for temperature anomalies shows a blast of cooler air is set to arrive in the U.S. by this weekend. 

Heating degree days for the US-Lower 48 is set to rise later this week. This means cooler temperatures are ahead as it will take more energy to heat a structure. 

“While the weather can always be a wildcard, even with a fairly conservative demand rebound, there should be considerable upside to U.S. natural gas prices in 2021,” Raymond James said. 

Raymond James raised their full-year 2020 price forecast by 10% to $2.10 MMBtu. For next year, they expect Henry Hub prices to average $3.50-$4 MMBtu. 

The Raymond James outlook follows Morgan Stanley’s bullish outlook of nat gas prices:

Morgan Stanley analysts, citing both production declines and a potential rebound in winter demand, said last week that Henry Hub prices could soar to $5.00/MMBtu in 2021. Researchers said that the drop in oil prices stalled growth in associated gas coming from previously robust oil production. That, combined with a roughly 50% reduction in spending by E&P companies from 2019, could result in a 3-4 Bcf/d year/year decline in associated gas output by the end of 2020. With West Texas Intermediate crude currently below the $40/bbl threshold needed to hold U.S. volumes flat in 2021, the analysts said, declines could continue. – Natural Gas Intelligence

“We’ve seen somewhat of a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario take place in a few regions – enough pandemic easing for industrial activity to perform a bit better, but still strong residential demand as most people stay home. In response, international gas prices have doubled or even tripled off the bottom,” Raymond James said.

We noted on Sept. 28 that nat gas prices were set to soar. Colder weather could be problematic for struggling restaurants with outdoor seating.

  

Old Man Winter is coming… 

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Brickbat: Run Away, Doo, Doo, Doo, Doo, Doo, Doo

babyshark_1161x653

Oklahoma County, Oklahoma, District Attorney David Prater has charged two former detention officers and their supervisor with cruelty to a prisoner and conspiracy. Prater says the three forced inmates to listen to the song “Baby Shark” for extended periods of time. “It was unfortunate that I could not find a felony statute to fit this fact scenario,” Prater said. “I would have preferred filing a felony on this behavior.”

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Brickbat: Run Away, Doo, Doo, Doo, Doo, Doo, Doo

babyshark_1161x653

Oklahoma County, Oklahoma, District Attorney David Prater has charged two former detention officers and their supervisor with cruelty to a prisoner and conspiracy. Prater says the three forced inmates to listen to the song “Baby Shark” for extended periods of time. “It was unfortunate that I could not find a felony statute to fit this fact scenario,” Prater said. “I would have preferred filing a felony on this behavior.”

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Turkey Threatens Armenia With Direct Military Intervention In Karabakh War

Turkey Threatens Armenia With Direct Military Intervention In Karabakh War

Tyler Durden

Wed, 10/14/2020 – 03:30

Submitted by SouthFront,

As of October 13, clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces continue in the southern part of the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region, while on the other parts of the frontline Baku and Yerevan limited their military activity to exchange of artillery and aerial strikes. The humanitarian ceasefire signed by the sides in Moscow formally remains in force, but the terms of the ceasefire are not fulfilled by both sides.

The main point of instability is the town of Hadrut, which Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced to have been ‘liberated’ from ‘Armenian occupants’. However, Armenian forces apparently forgot to read his tweet and withdraw from the area. So, now, the Azerbaijani leader is forced to explain what’s going on.

On October 12, he sated that a large group of Armenian special forces attacked the town to make a few selfies for Armenian propaganda, but the attack was repelled. “Although from a strategic point of view, it does not matter so much for Armenia. They just take such a step to go there and take a selfie or report to their population. The Azerbaijani Army neutralized this large group,” Aliyev stressed.

The Armenian military says that the town is still in the hands of its forces and that it has successfully repelled another Azerbaijani attack there.

Turkey has been openly threatening Armenia with a joint Turkish-Azerbaijani advance if it does not surrender the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region to Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said that “Baku cannot wait for justice for another 30 years” claiming that “Turkey is ready to support the fair position of the Azerbaijani side.” According to Akar, if the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is not resolved in the near future, then the next step will be “the Azerbaijani-Turkish movement aimed at returning their land.”

Sources affiliated with Turkish-backed militant groups in Syria say that Ankara has been preparing a new deployment of militant groups’ members to Azerbaijan to support its war with Armenia. If the numbers of 1,500-2,000 fresh militants that are set to come to Azerbaijan are confirmed, this will not only make the estimated number of Turkish proxies deployed there from 4,000-6,000, but also confirm that Ankara is set to use its influence to motivate Azerbaijan to opt for the scenario of a further escalation.

Likely, the Turkish leadership seems the war in Karabakh as an important turning point, which, in the event of military success, will turn into the leading power in the Southern Caucasus and give additional momentum to its geopolitical expansion. It will also boost the popularity of Recep Tayyip Erdogan that positions himself as the leader of the Turkic world and a de-facto Sultan of his own Neo-Ottoman Empire.

According to the Armenian side, the Turkish military is already directly involved in the war. In particular, the presence of Turkish F-16s, Turkish special forces, military advisers and Turkish-backed Syrian militants in Azerbaijan are hardly deniable facts.

It is interesting to observe how for example the main version from Turkish and Azerbaijani sources about the Turkish F-16 jets switched from public denial of their presence to claims that they are not involved directly in the conflict and are just needed to deter Armenian aggression. Reports from the ground and the diplomatic posture of the sides indicate that Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, is preparing a new military push against Armenian forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh region to consolidate and expand its initial gains before the winter.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2GVOGEF Tyler Durden