World’s Top Epidemiologists – Masks Don’t Work!

World’s Top Epidemiologists – Masks Don’t Work!

Tyler Durden

Sat, 08/08/2020 – 08:10

Authored by John Miltimore via The Foundation for Economic Education,

Denmark boasts one of the lowest COVID-19 death rates in the world. As of August 4, the Danes have suffered 616 COVID-19 deaths, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University.

That’s less than one-third of the number of Danes who die from pneumonia or influenza in a given year.

Despite this success, Danish leaders recently found themselves on the defensive. The reason is that Danes aren’t wearing face masks, and local authorities for the most part aren’t even recommending them.

This prompted Berlingske, the country’s oldest newspaper, to complain that Danes had positioned themselves “to the right of Trump.”

“The whole world is wearing face masks, even Donald Trump,” Berlingske pointed out.

This apparently did not sit well with Danish health officials.

From left to right: Professor Henning Bundgaard, Tamara van Ark, Anders Tegnell | Composite image by FEE (Rigshospitalet, Wikimedia Commons)

They responded by noting there is little conclusive evidence that face masks are an effective way to limit the spread of respiratory viruses.

All these countries recommending face masks haven’t made their decisions based on new studies,” said Henning Bundgaard, chief physician at Denmark’s Rigshospitale, according to Bloomberg News.

Denmark is not alone.

Despite a global stampede of mask-wearing, data show that 80-90 percent of people in Finland and Holland say they “never” wear masks when they go out, a sharp contrast to the 80-90 percent of people in Spain and Italy who say they “always” wear masks when they go out.

Dutch public health officials recently explained why they’re not recommending masks.

“From a medical point of view, there is no evidence of a medical effect of wearing face masks, so we decided not to impose a national obligation,” said Medical Care Minister Tamara van Ark.

Others, echoing statements similar to the US Surgeon General from early March, said masks could make individuals sicker and exacerbate the spread of the virus.

“Face masks in public places are not necessary, based on all the current evidence,” said Coen Berends, spokesman for the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment.

“There is no benefit and there may even be negative impact.”

In Sweden, where COVID-19 deaths have slowed to a crawl, public health officials say they see “no point” in requiring individuals to wear masks.

“With numbers diminishing very quickly in Sweden, we see no point in wearing a face mask in Sweden, not even on public transport,” said Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s top infectious disease expert.

The top immunologists and epidemiologists in the world can’t decide if masks are helpful in reducing the spread of COVID-19. Indeed, we’ve seen organizations like the World Health Organization…

…and the CDC go back and forth in their recommendations…

For the average person, it’s confusing and frustrating. It’s also a bit frightening, considering that we’ve seen people denounced in public for not wearing a mask while picking up a bag of groceries.

The truth is masks have become the new wedge issue, the latest phase of the culture war. Mask opponents tend to see mask wearers as “fraidy cats” or virtue-signalling “sheeple” who willfully ignore basic science. Mask supporters, on the other hand, often see people who refuse to wear masks as selfish Trumpkins … who willfully ignore basic science.

There’s not a lot of middle ground to be found and there’s no easy way to sit this one out. We all have to go outside, so at some we all are required to don the mask or not.

It’s clear from the data that despite the impression of Americans as selfish rebel cowboys who won’t wear a mask to protect others, Americans are wearing masks far more than many people in European countries.

Polls show Americans are wearing masks at record levels, though a political divide remains: 98 percent of Democrats report wearing masks in public compared to 66 percent of Republicans and 85 percent of Independents. (These numbers, no doubt, are to some extent the product of mask requirements in cities and states.)

Whether one is pro-mask or anti-mask, the fact of the matter is that face coverings have become politicized to an unhealthy degree, which stands to only further pollute the science.

Last month, for example, researchers at Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy responded to demands they remove an article that found mask requirements were “not based on sound data.”

The school, to its credit, did not remove the article, but instead opted to address the objections critics of their research had raised.

The ethics of medicine go back millennia. 

The Hippocratic Oath famously calls on medical practitioners to “first, do no harm.” (Those words didn’t actually appear in the original oath; they developed as a form of shorthand.)

There is a similar principle in the realm of public health: the Principle of Effectiveness.

Public health officials say the idea makes it clear that public health organizations have a responsibility to not harm the people they are assigned to protect.

“If a community is at risk, the government may have a duty to recommend interventions, as long as those interventions will cause no harm, or are the least harmful option,” wrote Claire J. Horwell Professor of Geohealth at Durham University and Fiona McDonald, Co-Director of the Australian Centre for Health Law Research at Queensland University of Technology.

“If an agency follows the principle of effectiveness, it will only recommend an intervention that they know to be effective.”

The problem with mask mandates is that public health officials are not merely recommending a precaution that may or may not be effective.

They are using force to make people submit to a state order that could ultimately make individuals or entire populations sicker, according to world-leading public health officials.

That is not just a violation of the Effectiveness Principle. It’s a violation of a basic personal freedom.

Mask advocates might mean well, but they overlook a basic reality: humans spontaneously alter behavior during pandemics. Scientific evidence shows that American workplaces and consumers changed the patterns of their travel before lockdown orders were issued.

As I’ve previously noted, this should come as no surprise: Humans are intelligent, instinctive, and self-preserving mammals who generally seek to avoid high-risk behavior. The natural law of spontaneous order shows that people naturally take actions of self-protection by constantly analyzing risk.

Instead of ordering people to “mask-up” under penalty of fines or jail time, scientists and public health officials should get back to playing their most important role: developing sound research on which people can freely make informed decisions.

See the World Health Organization’s Latest Guidelines on Masks and COVID-19…

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Feds Uncover “Most Sophisticated Tunnel In US History” Along Southern Border  

Feds Uncover “Most Sophisticated Tunnel In US History” Along Southern Border  

Tyler Durden

Sat, 08/08/2020 – 07:35

Special agents with Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) have uncovered an incomplete drug smuggling tunnel stretching from Arizona to Mexico, reported AZ Family

Agents are calling the tunnel “the most sophisticated [drug] tunnel in U.S. history” after finding a rail cart system, ventilation ducts, electrical wiring, and water lines, along with extensive wall reinforcements. 

“This appears to be the most sophisticated tunnel in U.S. history, and certainly the most sophisticated I’ve seen in my career,” said Carl E. Landrum, acting chief patrol agent with the Border Patrol’s Yuma Sector.

The tunnel is 3 feet wide and 4 feet high and runs from a Mexican neighborhood to San Luis, Arizona. 

Agents sent a camera 25 feet underground to investigate the tunnel. Here’s what they found:

“Homeland Security Investigations and our esteemed law enforcement partners swiftly and effectively worked together to uncover and dismantle a cross-border tunnel for smuggling purposes into the United States,” said Scott Brown, HSI special agent in charge in Phoenix.

Brown said, “despite the international pandemic, HSI and our law enforcement colleagues remain resilient and committed to pursuing dangerous criminal trans-border smuggling activities along the southwest border.”

The tunnel was discovered in mid-July when U.S. Border Patrol agents found a sinkhole near the U.S.-Mexico border. HSI was called in to investigate, and that was when they found the tunnel. 

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How Europe’s Pandemic Response Reduced Market Uncertainty

How Europe’s Pandemic Response Reduced Market Uncertainty

Tyler Durden

Sat, 08/08/2020 – 07:00

Submitted by Jarsolav Baran of the European Stability Mechanism

Implied uncertainty in European government bond futures, extracted from option prices, has declined sharply since March, following rapid and powerful European Central Bank (ECB) intervention and a coordinated fiscal response at national and European level. The range of probable outcomes for long-term yields, extracted from option prices, has narrowed, and market uncertainty, as measured by new implied volatility indices for European bond markets, has returned to low, pre-pandemic levels.

This blog is based on a recent ESM Working Paper, where my co-author Jan Voříšek and I describe some practical ways to measure bond market uncertainty using options, and discuss how this could be useful for investors.

Why measuring uncertainty matters

Market prices reflect where supply and demand meet. However, they do not reveal what different buyers and sellers may be anticipating. Individual investors have diverse views which market prices aggregate and show as an average. The level of conviction about expectations varies in time as well. Sometimes larger price moves are expected, other times prices are expected to remain stable. This anticipated market volatility cannot be observed directly in bond or equity prices either. Option prices can shed light on these blind spots. Options have desirable features: they are forward-looking, they show how much market uncertainty is priced in, and they capture the whole range of outcomes, from less to more probable.

In this blog, we look at the impact of recent policy measures on market implied uncertainty, based on option prices, and introduce new volatility indices, which measure implied volatility in the European government bond futures market. We show that the European policy response to the pandemic restored confidence and brought calm to the market at record speed.

March spike in uncertainty quickly recovered

When the ECB announced its unscheduled bond-buying package[1] on 18 March 2020 to support countries and economies hit by the pandemic, an impressive risk rally followed. Government bond yields dropped and the difference between the yields of euro area countries’ bonds contracted sharply. One less frequently monitored part of financial markets, the options market, staged an even more striking recovery.

During a dramatic market decline in March, option-implied uncertainty in long-term German bond futures reached a multi-year peak. At the height of the crisis, options maturing on 24 April 2020, about one month ahead, showed the range of possible moves in Bund yields – the benchmark yield for the euro area – between +27 basis points and -35 basis points, with 60% probability. At 80% probability, the range spanned over 100 basis points. Such uncertainty suggests that the market experienced a tail risk event in March (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Historical cheapest-to-deliver bond yield of Bund futures and their option-implied quantiles as of 19 March 2020.

Many parts of the financial market were temporarily disrupted in March as investors rushed into cash and short-term safe and liquid assets. The ECB successfully launched a number of flexible measures to restore market functioning and to provide liquidity to both shorter and longer-term funding markets.[2] The measures in concert achieved the goal of calming markets, decreasing volatility, and easing financial conditions.

Implied uncertainty receded as quickly as it jumped. In less than three months, it reversed most of its upward move. It is back to its low, pre-pandemic levels. On 20 July the range of future outcomes, as priced by the option market (Figure 2), narrowed markedly, suggesting relative calm expectations despite uncertainty about the speed and shape of the ensuing economic recovery. For options maturing on 21 August 2020, about one month ahead, the range of possible moves in Bund yields narrowed to -10 and +9 basis points, with 60% probability. The distribution became almost symmetrical, pricing roughly equal chances of rising and falling Bund yields.

Figure 2: Historical cheapest-to-deliver bond yield of Bund futures and their option-implied quantiles as of 20 July 2020.

The speed of the market reaction highlights, in many ways, the progress made by the euro area since the previous crisis to react quickly and decisively to bring back market confidence.

New European government bond volatility indices

Figures above help us visualise probabilities associated with future outcomes at different option maturities. We proposed new volatility indices for European government bond futures in our recent ESM Working Paper, in order to condense option-implied uncertainty into a single forward-looking measure. Volatility indices, built upon the VIX methodology, have become popular measures of short-term market uncertainty across a range of underlying asset classes such as equities, foreign exchange, or commodities. VIX methodology reigns as the most popular measure of market-implied volatility, but it is specific to US equities and derived from options on S&P 500 index. We expanded the family of volatility indices to track implied volatility of European government bonds.

Active exchange-traded option markets exist for German, French, and Italian government bond futures. We utilised these options to construct new volatility indices, which reflect market pricing of subsequently realised volatility, over the next 30 days. For example, Bund volatility index, a “Bund VIX equivalent”, tracks the implied volatility of Bund futures over the next 30 days using out-of-the-money options. To help interpretation, we expressed these indices in basis points annualised, corresponding to the underlying security of the bond future.

Bund volatility index briefly spiked in March to the highest level seen since the European debt crisis a decade ago, as Figure 3 shows. But this time, thanks to prompt and substantial liquidity support from the ECB as well as fiscal responses on national and European level, volatility was quick to recede and normalise. Volatility index for Italy jumped by similar magnitude, while in the case of France, volatility was more contained (Figure 4). Currently, option markets are not pricing any excessive Bund yield swings in either direction. The same behaviour is observed for France and Italy. Volatility indices have been trending downwards and reached pre-pandemic lows. Realised volatility has declined together with implied volatility and European government bond yields have recently fluctuated in tight ranges.

Figure 3: Bund volatility index jumped to multi-year highs, and quickly normalised.

Source: Bloomberg, authors’ calculations.

Figure 4: Implied volatility indices for OAT, BTP, and Bund futures are back at pre-pandemic lows

Source: Bloomberg, authors’ calculations.

Prospects for economic recovery and the path for growth and inflation remain uncertain, although they received a major boost with the EU summit’s agreed terms of a new Recovery Fund in late July. [3] The high uncertainty around the economic outlook is evident in the broad range of growth projections, and their frequent revisions. Investors will continue to assess carefully how governments respond. Despite high uncertainty around the economic outlook, option markets anticipate the European bond market will remain stable in the near future, and yields are expected to stay in a narrow range. The ECB’s substantial balance sheet expansion and commitment to keep rates low as long as necessary, together with European policy response, effectively compressed volatility and prevented market fragmentation.

Streamlining the implied uncertainty into a single measure, new volatility indices from option prices on German, French, and Italian government bond futures provide insights into investor sentiment and forward-looking market uncertainty in the underlying European sovereign bond market.

Footnotes

1 ECB Press Release. ECB announces €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). 18 March 2020.
2 Lane, P. R., The monetary policy response to the pandemic emergency. ECB Blog. 1 May 2020.
3 European Council, Special European Council, 17-21 July 2020.

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The Stolen Land Under Dodger Stadium

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Stealing Home: Los Angeles, the Dodgers, and the Lives Caught in Between, by Eric Nusbaum, PublicAffairs, 331 pages, $28

On July 24, 1950, the city of Los Angeles sent a letter to the residents of the Palo Verde, La Loma, and Bishop neighborhoods. Their homes would soon be purchased by the city, and their neighborhoods, which would come to be known collectively as Chavez Ravine, would be demolished to make room for a public housing project. This was made possible by the expanded eminent domain powers provided to municipal housing authorities by the Federal Housing Act of 1949.

While the city’s housing authority cajoled the area’s residents—predominately Mexican-American, largely poor and working-class—into selling their homes for prices well below market value, the political winds in Los Angeles shifted against public housing, leading to a 1952 citywide referendum banning such projects. But the Los Angeles Housing Authority still controlled the future of Chavez Ravine; soon, many civic leaders became convinced the area would be a good place for a professional baseball team.

Throughout the 1950s, the authorities waged a series of legal and political battles with the remaining residents of the area, most notably the Arechiga family, who held out at 1771 Malvina Avenue until county sheriffs forcibly evicted them on May 8, 1959. In the end, the city sold Chavez Ravine to Walter O’Malley, owner of the Brooklyn Dodgers, who had moved his team to L.A. in 1958. Four months after the Arechigas’ eviction, O’Malley broke ground on Dodger Stadium, a sleek, modernist $23 million ballpark that became the envy of the Major Leagues.

Stealing Home: Los Angeles, the Dodgers, and the Lives Caught in Between tells the story of how a cluster of longstanding Mexican-American neighborhoods in Los Angeles was destroyed through the exercise of newly expansive state powers. The author, sportswriter Eric Nusbaum, demonstrates the caprice with which municipal leaders used that power, shifting their priorities rapidly from a project aimed at expanding the city’s housing stock to one aimed at assuring its big-league status. Nusbaum employs the well-known story of Dodger Stadium’s origins to craft a compelling social, political, and cultural history of postwar Los Angeles. The result is a cautionary tale about the dangers of eminent domain, and of municipal authorities’ power to reshape communities in the name of grand civic enterprises.

The appropriation of Chavez Ravine was an early example of a trend that reshaped the relationship between cities and professional sports. In the decades after World War II, many municipalities decided to become both landlords and financiers to the big leagues. As in Los Angeles, most of these efforts were made to lure a professional sports franchise to town. This was particularly common in the emerging metropolises of the American South and West, whose civic leaders yearned for the amenities enjoyed by residents of more established cities in the Northeast and Great Lakes regions.

That said, the earliest example of this pay-for-play strategy took place in Wisconsin. In the early 1950s, Milwaukee County provided land for the construction of a baseball stadium along state Highway 175. It then floated $5.9 million (approximately $57 million in 2020 dollars) in municipal bonds to finance construction. In 1953, after the team had spent 82 years in Boston, Milwaukee County Stadium became the home of the Braves.

It was Major League Baseball’s first franchise shift in 50 years. The same 16 clubs had played in the same 10 cities since the Theodore Roosevelt administration, but now a seemingly unending series of moves and expansions began, much of them subsidized by city, county, and state taxpayers.

The Braves themselves were on the move again just 13 years later. Suitors from Atlanta lured the team’s new overlords, a group of absentee owners from Chicago whom the press called “the Rover Boys,” with a new municipal stadium and promises of a regional broadcast media network that stretched across the Southeastern United States. The city’s mayor, Ivan Allen, had campaigned on making Atlanta a “Major League city,” and the Braves were just one part of the plan. From 1966 to 1972, Atlanta lured franchises from all four major professional sports leagues to the city by building a municipally funded stadium on top of a repurposed urban renewal site and a municipally financed indoor arena. Atlanta had upped the ante on granting subsidies for professional sports, and this in turn gave such cities as San Diego, Tampa, and Phoenix a model to follow.

But the seeds of the subsidies had been planted earlier. By the end of the 1950s, most stadium deals involved more public money than private. In 1950, fewer than half of the fledgling National Basketball Association and National Football League playing facilities were publicly owned, along with just two Major League Baseball stadiums and no National Hockey League arenas. By 1970, nearly 70 percent of the venues that hosted professional franchises in the four major sports leagues were publicly owned, a figure that grew to more than 80 percent by the early 1990s and hovers around 90 percent at present.

The stadium deal in Los Angeles was something of an outlier, since the Dodgers paid for the land on Chavez Ravine and paid for the construction of Dodger Stadium. But Stealing Home shows the dangerous precedent that was set when Los Angeles used its eminent domain authority for something as profoundly inessential as a baseball stadium. The city destroyed those neighborhoods in Chavez Ravine and paved the way for abuses of power to come. The team owner’s gain was the homeowners’ and taxpayers’ loss.

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The Stolen Land Under Dodger Stadium

books3

Stealing Home: Los Angeles, the Dodgers, and the Lives Caught in Between, by Eric Nusbaum, PublicAffairs, 331 pages, $28

On July 24, 1950, the city of Los Angeles sent a letter to the residents of the Palo Verde, La Loma, and Bishop neighborhoods. Their homes would soon be purchased by the city, and their neighborhoods, which would come to be known collectively as Chavez Ravine, would be demolished to make room for a public housing project. This was made possible by the expanded eminent domain powers provided to municipal housing authorities by the Federal Housing Act of 1949.

While the city’s housing authority cajoled the area’s residents—predominately Mexican-American, largely poor and working-class—into selling their homes for prices well below market value, the political winds in Los Angeles shifted against public housing, leading to a 1952 citywide referendum banning such projects. But the Los Angeles Housing Authority still controlled the future of Chavez Ravine; soon, many civic leaders became convinced the area would be a good place for a professional baseball team.

Throughout the 1950s, the authorities waged a series of legal and political battles with the remaining residents of the area, most notably the Arechiga family, who held out at 1771 Malvina Avenue until county sheriffs forcibly evicted them on May 8, 1959. In the end, the city sold Chavez Ravine to Walter O’Malley, owner of the Brooklyn Dodgers, who had moved his team to L.A. in 1958. Four months after the Arechigas’ eviction, O’Malley broke ground on Dodger Stadium, a sleek, modernist $23 million ballpark that became the envy of the Major Leagues.

Stealing Home: Los Angeles, the Dodgers, and the Lives Caught in Between tells the story of how a cluster of longstanding Mexican-American neighborhoods in Los Angeles was destroyed through the exercise of newly expansive state powers. The author, sportswriter Eric Nusbaum, demonstrates the caprice with which municipal leaders used that power, shifting their priorities rapidly from a project aimed at expanding the city’s housing stock to one aimed at assuring its big-league status. Nusbaum employs the well-known story of Dodger Stadium’s origins to craft a compelling social, political, and cultural history of postwar Los Angeles. The result is a cautionary tale about the dangers of eminent domain, and of municipal authorities’ power to reshape communities in the name of grand civic enterprises.

The appropriation of Chavez Ravine was an early example of a trend that reshaped the relationship between cities and professional sports. In the decades after World War II, many municipalities decided to become both landlords and financiers to the big leagues. As in Los Angeles, most of these efforts were made to lure a professional sports franchise to town. This was particularly common in the emerging metropolises of the American South and West, whose civic leaders yearned for the amenities enjoyed by residents of more established cities in the Northeast and Great Lakes regions.

That said, the earliest example of this pay-for-play strategy took place in Wisconsin. In the early 1950s, Milwaukee County provided land for the construction of a baseball stadium along state Highway 175. It then floated $5.9 million (approximately $57 million in 2020 dollars) in municipal bonds to finance construction. In 1953, after the team had spent 82 years in Boston, Milwaukee County Stadium became the home of the Braves.

It was Major League Baseball’s first franchise shift in 50 years. The same 16 clubs had played in the same 10 cities since the Theodore Roosevelt administration, but now a seemingly unending series of moves and expansions began, much of them subsidized by city, county, and state taxpayers.

The Braves themselves were on the move again just 13 years later. Suitors from Atlanta lured the team’s new overlords, a group of absentee owners from Chicago whom the press called “the Rover Boys,” with a new municipal stadium and promises of a regional broadcast media network that stretched across the Southeastern United States. The city’s mayor, Ivan Allen, had campaigned on making Atlanta a “Major League city,” and the Braves were just one part of the plan. From 1966 to 1972, Atlanta lured franchises from all four major professional sports leagues to the city by building a municipally funded stadium on top of a repurposed urban renewal site and a municipally financed indoor arena. Atlanta had upped the ante on granting subsidies for professional sports, and this in turn gave such cities as San Diego, Tampa, and Phoenix a model to follow.

But the seeds of the subsidies had been planted earlier. By the end of the 1950s, most stadium deals involved more public money than private. In 1950, fewer than half of the fledgling National Basketball Association and National Football League playing facilities were publicly owned, along with just two Major League Baseball stadiums and no National Hockey League arenas. By 1970, nearly 70 percent of the venues that hosted professional franchises in the four major sports leagues were publicly owned, a figure that grew to more than 80 percent by the early 1990s and hovers around 90 percent at present.

The stadium deal in Los Angeles was something of an outlier, since the Dodgers paid for the land on Chavez Ravine and paid for the construction of Dodger Stadium. But Stealing Home shows the dangerous precedent that was set when Los Angeles used its eminent domain authority for something as profoundly inessential as a baseball stadium. The city destroyed those neighborhoods in Chavez Ravine and paved the way for abuses of power to come. The team owner’s gain was the homeowners’ and taxpayers’ loss.

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The Eleventh Circuit Grapples With Title IX, and the Equal Protection Clause, in the Wake of Bostock

On Friday, a divided panel of the Eleventh Circuit decided Drew Adams v. School Board of St. Johns County, Florida. This case found that Title IX requires a school to allow a transgender boy to use the boys’ bathroom. Bostock did not decide this question. Justice Gorsuch insisted, “we do not purport to address bathrooms, locker rooms, or anything else of the kind.” In dissent, Justice Alito seemed skeptical. He wrote:

Thus, a person who has not undertaken any physical transitioning may claim the right to use the bathroom or locker room assigned to the sex with which the individual identifies at that particular time. The Court provides no clue why a transgender person’s claim to such bathroom or locker room access might not succeed.

Alito’s dissent, which raised a parade of horribles, may come to resemble Justice Scalia’s Windsor dissent. In the lead-up to Obergefell, district courts gleefully cited Scalia when they set aside state marriage laws.

Judge Martin wrote the majority opinion in Adams. Chief Judge Pryor wrote a vigorous dissent. Indeed, he wrote, “I dissent,” rather than the traditional “I respectfully dissent.” (I call these mic-drops disrespectful dissents). The majority and dissent disagreed on a basic question that affects the framing of both the Title IX issue, as well as the Equal Protection issue.

According to the majority, the school’s policy singles out transgender students for special burdens. And, per Bostock, “sex” is an essential ingredient in that form of discrimination.

The School Board’s bathroom policy singles out transgender students for differential treatment because they are transgender… identity.” In this way, the policy places a special burden on transgender students because their gender identity does not match their sex assigned at birth. And, as this Court announced in Glenn, “discrimination against a transgender individual because of [his or] her gender-nonconformity is sex discrimination, whether it’s described as being on the basis of sex or gender.”5 663 F.3d at1317; cf. Bostock v. Clayton County, 590 U.S. ___,140S. Ct.1731, 1741(2020)(confirming that “it is impossible to discriminate against a person for being . . . transgender without discriminating against that individual based on sex”). We therefore apply heightened scrutiny to the School Board bathroom policy.

Chief Judge Pryor views the case in a very different fashion: denying a student access to a bathroom based on his biological sex is not discrimination on the basis of transgender status. He writes:

To be sure, Bostock clarified that “discrimination based on homosexuality or transgender status necessarily entails discrimination based on sex” in the context of employment discrimination under Title VII. Id. at 1747; see also Glenn v. Brumby, 663 F.3d 1312, 1318 (11th Cir. 2011) (holding that discrimination based on gender nonconformity constitutes sex discrimination regardless of whether the victim is transgender or not). But this appeal concerns the converse question: whether discrimination on the basis of sex necessarily entails discrimination based on transgender status. Of course, a policy can classify on the basis of sex without also classifying on the basis of transgender status. See, e.g., Nguyen, 533 U.S. at 60. Indeed, Bostock expressly disclaimed reaching any conclusion on the permissibility of sex-separated bathrooms and locker rooms. …. So the relevant question is whether excluding students of one sex from the bathroom of the other sex substantially advances the schools’ privacy objectives. The question is not, as the majority frames it, whether excluding transgender students from the bathroom of their choice furthers important privacy objectives

As I read Pryor’s dissent, the fact that Adams is transgender is irrelevant for the Title IX analysis. What matters is that the school has separated bathrooms by sex.

The majority opinion elides this entire analysis by misunderstanding both the classification and privacy interests at issue. It contends that the policy triggers heightened scrutiny not because it separates bathrooms by sex but because it purportedly imposes “differential treatment” on transgender students. Majority Op. at 12. In doing so, the majority misstates the school policy, conflates sex-based classifications with transgender-based classifications, and contravenes Supreme Court precedent. Compounding its errors, the majority then ignores fundamental understandings of why bathrooms are separated on the basis of sex by rejecting long-standing privacy rationales for sex-separated bathrooms.

The majority opinion says it is not necessary to define sex, because the discrimination was on the basis of transgender status.

Our dissenting colleague accuses us of shirking our duty because we do not delve into the meaning of “sex” in Title IX. To the contrary, we follow the lead of the Supreme Court in Bostock, which found it unnecessary to perform that analysis as to Title VII. We need not interpret the term “sex” to recognize that Mr. Adams suffered discrimination at school because he was transgender.

The majority opinion adds that the dissent does not recognize what it means to be a transgender boy. Therefore, the dissent does not consider the relevance of Adams’s transgender status:

The dissenting opinion’s central flaw is that it does not meaningfully reckon with what it means for Mr. Adams to be a transgender boy…. Because the dissent does not consider Mr. Adams’s transgender status analytically relevant, it expresses the view that allowing Mr. Adams to use the boys’ restroom erodes restroom divisions for all. This argument cannot stand together with the fact, found by the District Court, that Mr. Adams is “like any other boy.”

And, the majority contends, that the same but-for causation from Bostock resolves this case:

This being the Board’s view, it argues that Mr. Adams was treated just the same as all girl students at Nease High School. But the School Board, like the dissenting opinion, misapprehends Bostock. Bostock explained that if an employer fires a transgender female employee but retains a non-transgender female employee, this differential treatment is discrimination because of sex. In the same way, Mr. Adams can show discrimination by comparing the School Board’s treatment of him, as a transgender boy, to its treatment of non-transgender boys.

This dichotomy between the majority and the dissent dictates the outcome of the case. Martin and Pryor lay out the two positions cogently. They were writing about two completely different cases, like two ships passing in the night.

I am inclined to think Pryor was right, but I also thought Bostock was wrong. Indeed, throughout the opinion, I felt like Pryor was fighting with one hand tied behind his back–more precisely, Neil Gorsuch tied up that hand. The majority cited Bostock over and over again to promote a hyper-literal reading of Title IX, that rejected any extraneous evidence to give meaning to the statute–even as Pryor cited decades of precedent and practice that recognized the validity of sex-segregated bathrooms. Indeed, Pryor cites FN19 of United States v. Virginia, in which the Notorious RBG approved separating bathrooms based on physiological differences. (I flagged that opinion as grounds for her cancellation). He wrote:

Not long ago, a suit challenging the lawfulness of separating bathrooms on the basis of sex would have been unthinkable. This practice has long been the common-sense example of an acceptable classification on the basis of sex. And for good reason: it protects well-established privacy interests in using the bathroom away from the opposite sex

I don’t know how this case shakes out on appeal. Justice Gorsuch’s textualism rejects “common sense.” And Bostock and McGirt teach us that stare decisis only cuts in favor of Gorsuch’s reading of statutes, and not against it. Plus, we know he is committed to but-for causation. But the bathroom case is different than Bostock because the segregation is expressly sex-based. Stay tuned.

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The Eleventh Circuit Grapples With Title IX, and the Equal Protection Clause, in the Wake of Bostock

On Friday, a divided panel of the Eleventh Circuit decided Drew Adams v. School Board of St. Johns County, Florida. This case found that Title IX requires a school to allow a transgender boy to use the boys’ bathroom. Bostock did not decide this question. Justice Gorsuch insisted, “we do not purport to address bathrooms, locker rooms, or anything else of the kind.” In dissent, Justice Alito seemed skeptical. He wrote:

Thus, a person who has not undertaken any physical transitioning may claim the right to use the bathroom or locker room assigned to the sex with which the individual identifies at that particular time. The Court provides no clue why a transgender person’s claim to such bathroom or locker room access might not succeed.

Alito’s dissent, which raised a parade of horribles, may come to resemble Justice Scalia’s Windsor dissent. In the lead-up to Obergefell, district courts gleefully cited Scalia when they set aside state marriage laws.

Judge Martin wrote the majority opinion in Adams. Chief Judge Pryor wrote a vigorous dissent. Indeed, he wrote, “I dissent,” rather than the traditional “I respectfully dissent.” (I call these mic-drops disrespectful dissents). The majority and dissent disagreed on a basic question that affects the framing of both the Title IX issue, as well as the Equal Protection issue.

According to the majority, the school’s policy singles out transgender students for special burdens. And, per Bostock, “sex” is an essential ingredient in that form of discrimination.

The School Board’s bathroom policy singles out transgender students for differential treatment because they are transgender… identity.” In this way, the policy places a special burden on transgender students because their gender identity does not match their sex assigned at birth. And, as this Court announced in Glenn, “discrimination against a transgender individual because of [his or] her gender-nonconformity is sex discrimination, whether it’s described as being on the basis of sex or gender.”5 663 F.3d at1317; cf. Bostock v. Clayton County, 590 U.S. ___,140S. Ct.1731, 1741(2020)(confirming that “it is impossible to discriminate against a person for being . . . transgender without discriminating against that individual based on sex”). We therefore apply heightened scrutiny to the School Board bathroom policy.

Chief Judge Pryor views the case in a very different fashion: denying a student access to a bathroom based on his biological sex is not discrimination on the basis of transgender status. He writes:

To be sure, Bostock clarified that “discrimination based on homosexuality or transgender status necessarily entails discrimination based on sex” in the context of employment discrimination under Title VII. Id. at 1747; see also Glenn v. Brumby, 663 F.3d 1312, 1318 (11th Cir. 2011) (holding that discrimination based on gender nonconformity constitutes sex discrimination regardless of whether the victim is transgender or not). But this appeal concerns the converse question: whether discrimination on the basis of sex necessarily entails discrimination based on transgender status. Of course, a policy can classify on the basis of sex without also classifying on the basis of transgender status. See, e.g., Nguyen, 533 U.S. at 60. Indeed, Bostock expressly disclaimed reaching any conclusion on the permissibility of sex-separated bathrooms and locker rooms. …. So the relevant question is whether excluding students of one sex from the bathroom of the other sex substantially advances the schools’ privacy objectives. The question is not, as the majority frames it, whether excluding transgender students from the bathroom of their choice furthers important privacy objectives

As I read Pryor’s dissent, the fact that Adams is transgender is irrelevant for the Title IX analysis. What matters is that the school has separated bathrooms by sex.

The majority opinion elides this entire analysis by misunderstanding both the classification and privacy interests at issue. It contends that the policy triggers heightened scrutiny not because it separates bathrooms by sex but because it purportedly imposes “differential treatment” on transgender students. Majority Op. at 12. In doing so, the majority misstates the school policy, conflates sex-based classifications with transgender-based classifications, and contravenes Supreme Court precedent. Compounding its errors, the majority then ignores fundamental understandings of why bathrooms are separated on the basis of sex by rejecting long-standing privacy rationales for sex-separated bathrooms.

The majority opinion says it is not necessary to define sex, because the discrimination was on the basis of transgender status.

Our dissenting colleague accuses us of shirking our duty because we do not delve into the meaning of “sex” in Title IX. To the contrary, we follow the lead of the Supreme Court in Bostock, which found it unnecessary to perform that analysis as to Title VII. We need not interpret the term “sex” to recognize that Mr. Adams suffered discrimination at school because he was transgender.

The majority opinion adds that the dissent does not recognize what it means to be a transgender boy. Therefore, the dissent does not consider the relevance of Adams’s transgender status:

The dissenting opinion’s central flaw is that it does not meaningfully reckon with what it means for Mr. Adams to be a transgender boy…. Because the dissent does not consider Mr. Adams’s transgender status analytically relevant, it expresses the view that allowing Mr. Adams to use the boys’ restroom erodes restroom divisions for all. This argument cannot stand together with the fact, found by the District Court, that Mr. Adams is “like any other boy.”

And, the majority contends, that the same but-for causation from Bostock resolves this case:

This being the Board’s view, it argues that Mr. Adams was treated just the same as all girl students at Nease High School. But the School Board, like the dissenting opinion, misapprehends Bostock. Bostock explained that if an employer fires a transgender female employee but retains a non-transgender female employee, this differential treatment is discrimination because of sex. In the same way, Mr. Adams can show discrimination by comparing the School Board’s treatment of him, as a transgender boy, to its treatment of non-transgender boys.

This dichotomy between the majority and the dissent dictates the outcome of the case. Martin and Pryor lay out the two positions cogently. They were writing about two completely different cases, like two ships passing in the night.

I am inclined to think Pryor was right, but I also thought Bostock was wrong. Indeed, throughout the opinion, I felt like Pryor was fighting with one hand tied behind his back–more precisely, Neil Gorsuch tied up that hand. The majority cited Bostock over and over again to promote a hyper-literal reading of Title IX, that rejected any extraneous evidence to give meaning to the statute–even as Pryor cited decades of precedent and practice that recognized the validity of sex-segregated bathrooms. Indeed, Pryor cites FN19 of United States v. Virginia, in which the Notorious RBG approved separating bathrooms based on physiological differences. (I flagged that opinion as grounds for her cancellation). He wrote:

Not long ago, a suit challenging the lawfulness of separating bathrooms on the basis of sex would have been unthinkable. This practice has long been the common-sense example of an acceptable classification on the basis of sex. And for good reason: it protects well-established privacy interests in using the bathroom away from the opposite sex

I don’t know how this case shakes out on appeal. Justice Gorsuch’s textualism rejects “common sense.” And Bostock and McGirt teach us that stare decisis only cuts in favor of Gorsuch’s reading of statutes, and not against it. Plus, we know he is committed to but-for causation. But the bathroom case is different than Bostock because the segregation is expressly sex-based. Stay tuned.

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Trump Teases Executive Order On Pre-Existing Protections, I Suspect, To Help With ACA Litigation

On Friday, President Trump teased a new executive order on healthcare:

“That’s a big thing. I’ve always been very strongly in favor. We have to cover pre-existing conditions so we will be pursuing a major executive order requiring health insurance companies to cover all pre-existing conditions for all of its customers. This has never been done before.”

Of course, the media pounced and said the ACA–the law Trump is trying to destroy–already requires insurers to protect people with pre-existing protections. Specifically, the law’s guaranteed issue and community rating provisions (GICR) bar insurers from denying coverage, or charging higher premiums, to people with pre-existing condition.

So what is Trump up to? I can offer some uninformed speculation.

Ilya Shapiro and I filed the Cato Institute’s amicus brief in California v. Texas. We proposed that the Trump administration could require, by executive action, insurers on the ACA exchange to comply with guaranteed issue and community rating. But why would such an executive action be needed if the ACA is in place? Well, the ACA is currently being challenged. And perhaps one factor that could aid the Court’s deliberations would be an assurance that people with pre-existing protections could still obtain coverage on the exchanges, even if guaranteed issue and community rating (GICR) were found to be inseverable.

Here is an excerpt from our brief.

The analysis for individual market, on-exchange policies is different. Hurley and Nantz are not eligible for subsidies. Declarations, supra. But they could still purchase an unsubsidized plan on the exchanges. Halting GICR with respect to policies sold on the exchanges would be an unnecessarily overbroad remedy. So long as the plaintiffs can purchase off-market non-compliant plans, or none at all, their injuries will be remedied. Plaintiffs cannot demand a greater remedy to alter all policies offered on government exchanges. Moreover, people who seek to buy a government-sponsored product on a government exchange cannot complain about cumbersome regulations. [FN 12] Courts need go no further than issue a declaration with respect to individual market, off-exchange policies. “[T]he judicial power is, fundamentally, the power to render judgments in individual cases.” Murphy, 138 S. Ct. at 1485 (Thomas, J., concurring). No more, and no less. Hurley and Nantz, meanwhile, and all those who object to being forced to purchase unwanted policies, will have other options.

[FN12]: This narrow remedy would address concerns raised by the Federal Respondents about creating a “potentially unstable insurance market.” See Brief for the Federal Respondents at 44–45. The executive branch could also require insurance providers on the exchanges to comply with the ACA’s GICR provisions, regardless of the outcome of this litigation.

Let’s see if the Trump executive order reflects the strategy in our brief. I have no inside information. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the SG uses a similar strategy.

I will have much more to say about our amicus brief, as well as the Court’s recent severability decisions (Seila Law and AAPC), as the arguments draw near.

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