Pentagon Pulls Trigger: Will Order All Troops To Get COVID Vaccine By Sept.15

Pentagon Pulls Trigger: Will Order All Troops To Get COVID Vaccine By Sept.15

The US military is ready to begin enforcing a coronavirus vaccine mandate across all branches, the Associated Press is reporting Monday based on a Pentagon memo it’s obtained. The memo is expected to go out on Monday and is intended to “warn” troops to “prepare” for the new requirement. 

It will require service members to get the jab by a Sept. 15 deadline, a date which could actually be pushed up if the FDA gives final approval for the Pfizer vaccine or if infection rates rise rapidly. Here’s what’s in the memo, according to AP:

“I will seek the president’s approval to make the vaccines mandatory no later than mid-September, or immediately upon” licensure by the Food and Drug Administration “whichever comes first,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says in the memo to troops, warning them to prepare for the requirement. “I will not hesitate to act sooner or recommend a different course to the President if l feel the need to do so.”

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, DOD/Air Force image

Biden is expected to give the greenlight, given other recent federal mandates for civilian workers. The memo also serves to give military commands a heads up in terms of putting in place proper logistics and assessing what’s needed to implement the new plan on large scale.

Prior reports have strongly suggested there’s a large segment of the US armed forces which remain ‘vaccine skeptical’ and hesitant, for example this report from just last week:

A New York state military law attorney said he is receiving calls from Airmen serving at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base — and from active-duty service members across the country — asking about options should the Department of Defense mandate that military members take the COVID vaccine.

…Some service members “are scared and skeptical, basically, to take the vaccine when it’s an experimental vaccine,” he said. “That’s really what we’re seeing.”

He said his firm is getting “multiple calls” from service members interested in litigation or class-action lawsuits.

While currently service members are given as many as a dozen or up to 17 different vaccines – most often upon entry into boot camp (and based on deployment status and what their military job is) – it remains that the COVID vaccine is still a non-FDA approved “emergency-use basis” shot

Further it remains that throughout the entirety of the pandemic deaths among US military personnel have remained very low compared to the broader population. This is likely due to military personnel tending to be a healthier, fitter, and younger demographic. Some have argued this fact alone should make a vaccine mandate unnecessary.

Legal pushback against a Pentagon-ordered services wide mandate could hinge on whether FDA approval finally comes ahead of the Sept. 15 requirement. If FDA full approval isn’t there by then, it will no doubt trigger legal controversy akin to the anthrax vaccine mandate for select personnel (usually infantry and forward operating forces) in the 1990’s. 

“Up until the point the vaccine is … FDA-approved, military members can’t be mandated to take the vaccine, unless the president of the United States would waive that requirement,” he [attorney and military law specialist Greg Rinckey] said. “It’s very similar to what we kind of saw with the anthrax vaccine back in the ‘90s.”

In 2003, a federal judge sided with service members who sued, maintaining that the military could not administer a vaccine that has not been fully licensed without their consent. That program was stopped, the Associated Press reported recently.

This comes on the heels of federal workers, with the exception of the Post Office, being ordered to get the vaccine. 

Very likely we’ll see instances of refusals to get the jab among military ranks, perhaps leading to mass resignations or punitive measures taken against them. While the Pentagon will mandate the jab, it’s as yet unclear what the “or else” in terms of dealing with those who resist the mandate will be. Officials have hinted it could be punishable under the Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ) as a refusal to obey lawful orders.

Read the full memo here:

Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/09/2021 – 14:19

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Peter Schiff: Markets Are Moving On A Fantasy

Peter Schiff: Markets Are Moving On A Fantasy

Via SchiffGold.com,

We’ve seen a sharp selloff in both gold and silver. Gold was down over $40 an ounce Friday (and nose-dived in early Sunday trading). Meanwhile, the US dollar saw a sharp increase, along with a rise in long-term Treasury yields. The catalyst for these sharp moves was a better-than-expected jobs report and expectation that it will spark a quick pivot to monetary tightening by the Fed. In his podcast, Peter Schiff said the markets are moving on fantasy, not economic reality.

Peter acknowledged that the employment report was better than expected, but not nearly strong enough to justify the gold and silver selloff and the dollar rally.

If you actually look at the employment number but also look at all the other economic data that came out, not only on the day, but on the week, all of this data continues to support a weak US dollar and a stronger gold price. But the markets are not trading on fundamentals. Fundamentals have nothing to do with this market. This market is based on hype, based on momentum, and it’s based on algorithms.

Peter said these algorithms are a great example of “garbage in, garbage out.” Whenever they get a good economic number, they trigger gold sales and dollar buys. Or whenever somebody at the Fed talks about the mere possibility of tightening, the computers trigger the same moves. But there is no real rational understanding of what the numbers actually mean and the bigger picture.

In the long run, the fundamentals are the only thing that matter. And that’s why in the long run, we’re going to see a big drop in the dollar and a surge in the price of gold.”

Looking at the employment numbers, Peter said there’s a good explanation for the surge in jobs that has nothing to do with the underlying economy. Many red states cut the extra $300 a week from their unemployment benefits. Nearly 1 million people went back to work in July.

All this does is provide more evidence to what obviously was common sense, that paying people not to work results in people not working. And when you stop paying people not to work, they go back to work.”

But that doesn’t mean we have real strength in the US economy.

Meanwhile, average hourly earnings were up 4% year-on-year in July. That signals more pressure on inflation.

This data means we are ostensibly closer to the conditions that the Fed says need to be met in order to raise interest rates and shrink the quantitative easing program.

It’s this anticipation of the tightening process happening sooner rather than later that is the real reason that you saw the big bid in the dollar and the sell-off in gold — despite the fact that none of this really matters because the Fed is just bluffing about what conditions would be necessary for it to tighten monetary policy because I don’t think the conditions exist that would actually cause the Fed to do that.”

The bottom line is this employment report does not signal some booming economy that will allow the Federal Reserve to remove all of the monetary supports holding up the economy.

In fact, absent those monetary supports, the numbers would not be this good. They would be a lot worse if we didn’t have all the help from the Fed. And the Fed knows if they remove that help then everything is going to implode that’s been built on the foundation of artificially low interest rates and quantitative easing.”

Peter noted the big jump in consumer credit in June. This was supported by the Fed’s ultra-low interest rates. And if consumers couldn’t borrow all this money, they wouldn’t have been able to spend it.

Obviously, if consumers were not able to borrow all this money, then they couldn’t have spent. They couldn’t have bought all this stuff but for their ability to borrow money. And the only reason they can borrow money is because the Fed is supplying it. The Fed is making all this money available. It’s holding interest rates artificially low so that people can pay the interest on all this money that they’re borrowing. And that is what is helping to create a lot of these service sector jobs that would not exist but for the ability of Americans to go deeper into debt.”

Ultimately, the inflation train has left the station and if the Fed tries to turn off the monetary spigots, the economy will end up getting derailed. The bubble economy depends on air supplied by the Fed.

If the Fed stops supplying that air, the whole thing is going to deflate.”

Peter goes on to talk about the trade deficit, the extension of the moratorium on student loan payments, the extension on the eviction moratorium, dumb comments by AOC, and some bitcoin news.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/09/2021 – 14:05

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“He Takes Care Of The Little Girls” – Leon Black’s Ex-Mistress Shares Explosive New Details About “Best Friend” Jeffrey Epstein

“He Takes Care Of The Little Girls” – Leon Black’s Ex-Mistress Shares Explosive New Details About “Best Friend” Jeffrey Epstein

A couple of weeks ago, we reported on the latest court filing made by Russian model Guzel Ganieva in her lawsuit against Leon Black. In the filing, she accused him of paying her millions of dollars in money and gifts in exchange for keeping the affair quiet.

But an amended filing released Monday includes even more explosive claims about Black’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. Black has already been forced out of Apollo, the private equity giant he co-founded, months earlier than he had originally planned, despite an internal probe finding that his friendship with Epstein didn’t extend beyond his decision to pay him more than $150MM for tax advice. While many have speculated that Black’s explanation was a ruse (and a thin one at that), Ganieva makes several explosive new claims, hinting for the first time that Black knew exactly what Epstein was up to, while not directly accusing him.

In the amended filing, Ganieva alleges that Black “made multiple comments to Ganieva about Epstein’s sexual proclivities.” Black allegedly told Ganieva that Epstein flew “very young girls” aboard his private plane…and while the lawsuit doesn’t explicitly accuse Black of knowing that the girls Epstein trafficked were underage…it does claim that Black told Ganieva that Epstein made his money because he “takes care of the little girls” and was “doing a great job with it.”

She also claimed that she herself was trafficked to Epstein, saying that Black flew her to Florida in 2008 “without her consent, to satisfy the sex needs of Epstein, Black’s “best friend.”

Black’s legal team maintains that Ganieva’s account is a “work of fiction,” according to a report in Vanity Fair.

Black’s attorney, Dayna Perry, said in regard to the new claims that “Ms. Ganieva had six years to prepare her initial complaint in this case … She now claims to recall in August supposedly crucial events and connections that somehow had slipped her mind at the time of her June filing. But just like her June complaint, Ms. Ganieva’s story today is demonstrably and transparently false and betrays her willingness to say anything and fabricate a story in the hope something will stick.”

But Ganieva’s lawyers are reportedly subpoenaing flight records to see if they can prove she traveled with Black to Florida in October 2008. Evidence of this flight could be bad for Black, though we imagine his legal team will dismiss the records as irrelevant.

After asking her to meet him for lunch, Black allegedly drove Ganieva to Teterboro Airport in New Jersey, where they boarded a private plane. Ganieva states that once they were on the jet, Black told her they were flying to Palm Beach to meet his “friend”, Jeffrey Epstein. Black instructed her not to tell anybody about the trip, even allegedly threatening to frame her for drug possession if she ever did.

“Black specifically used heroin as an example of an illicit drug that would be problematic for her if he planted it on her,” the lawsuit states.

When they arrived at Epstein’s mansion, a federal marshal was stationed outside in accordance with the terms of Epstein’s sweetheart deal with prosecutors back in 2008. Epstein was famously granted work-release privileges allowing him to leave the jail for 12 hours every day during the entire year-long term of his incarceration.

They were allegedly greeted by Epstein assistance Sarah Kellen, who was also quoted in the amended lawsuit.

“You have to understand that [Jeffrey and Leon] are sex addicts,” Kellen said, according to the lawsuit. “You have to let them do whatever they want with you, and you have to let them be with multiple sexual partners if that’s what they want. They are very powerful, and if you don’t do what they want you to do, there will be consequences that I do not want for you.”

When Ganieva refused to sleep with Epstein, Black looked “annoyed”. He eventually dismissed her from Epstein’s bedroom, and later, during the flight back to New Jersey, he refused to speak with her.

By the sound of it, Black stopped just short of admitting the existence of an elite moneyed cabal centered around abusing children…sound familiar? Still, we must take it with a grain of salt, given that the issue still needs to be adjudicated in civil court (though we have a feeling that, following these latest accusations, Black’s legal team might be motivated to work out a settlement).

Over the years, Black often texted with Epstein in Ganieva’s presence, and at one time he told her that she was “too old” for Epstein. “He likes them young,” Black allegedly said.

Ganieva has previously accused Epstein of abusing her both physically and emotionally, even alleging that he raped her back in 2014. Black maintains that the relationship was entirely consensual, and has vehemently denied her claims about his “predatory” and “vindictive” behavior.

Now, with Ganieva poised to blow Black’s dirty little secret wide open, how much longer before prosecutors come calling, and force Black to start talking as they try to piece together other potentially high-profile “friends” of Epstein who participated in the sex trafficking ‘ring’?

Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/09/2021 – 13:46

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Tyson Foods CEO Says Costs Rising Faster Than It Can Hike Prices

Tyson Foods CEO Says Costs Rising Faster Than It Can Hike Prices

Tyson Foods Inc., the top chicken producer in the U.S., confirmed in an earnings call that food inflation continues to push prices higher. 

Tyson’s CEO Donnie King said higher costs are hitting the firm faster than the company can lift prices, and retail prices are set to rise on Sept. 5.

King must have had a mental lapse during the earnings call because the word “transitory” was not part of the conversation. 

Everything from fuel to labor to raw materials (corn and soybeans) to shipping to other inputs critical for livestock farming has exponentially risen over the last year. 

None of this should be a surprise as we’ve referenced two BofA reports that suggested “transitory” hyperinflation is not just ahead but has arrived. 

In May, BofA said, “Buckle up! Inflation is here,” and showed a chart of the number of mentions of “inflation” during earnings calls which exploded, more than tripling YoY per company so far, and the most significant jump in history since BofA started keeping records in 2004.

The bank concluded that this “points to at the very least, “transitory” hyper-inflation ahead:” 

Then in June, BofA’s economist Alex Lin wrote the “transitory inflation” meter is currently at an all-time high, “suggesting that there is significant scope for a pullback over the next year.”

Lin’s note confirms what the bank said in May: that the U.S. is currently in a period of hyperinflation, and hopefully, the bank is also correct that this period will be transitory.

Whether permanent or transitory, that remains the question – but evidence continues to mount, now with Tyson, that food prices have yet to peak and are still rising. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/09/2021 – 13:29

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Canadian Refused Entry To Own Country Despite Proving Strong Natural COVID Immunity And Negative Tests

Canadian Refused Entry To Own Country Despite Proving Strong Natural COVID Immunity And Negative Tests

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

A Canadian writer who flew home from Europe to visit her mother was refused entry and sent back because she wasn’t vaccinated, even though she presented detailed proof that she has strong natural immunity to COVID after having recovered from the virus.

Rachel Marsden detailed her experience in an op-ed last week, noting “Canada tried to force me into a Covid detention facility threatening fines and police action as they don’t recognize my natural immunity. I had no choice but to immediately fly back to Europe.”

Marsden notes that “I committed the apparent violation of trying to re-enter my own country with proof of naturally acquired Covid-19 antibodies made by my own immune system post-recovery rather than those generated by the manmade Covid-19 vaccine about which much is still to be learned.”

The writer recounts “I was treated worse than a criminal. I arrived at the airport with a negative PCR test (from within the previous 48 hours), two positive Covid antibody tests from March and July proving that I still had significant Covid antibodies post-recovery, and a ‘covid immunity certificate’ written and signed by my French doctor to confirm this fact.”

According to her account, Canadian border security refused to accept anything other than proof of being fully vaccinated to enter the country without quarantining for over two weeks.

“The Canadian border officer refused to accept the antibody laboratory test results as proof that I had recovered and was immune from Covid,” Marsden writes, adding that she was threatened with a $6000 fine if she did not co-operate and attempted to leave the airport.

“Let’s be clear: The Canadian government, by behaving in this manner, is routinely criminalizing those with Covid antibodies that are not derived from a manufactured experimental vaccine,” Marsden urges.

Marsden claims that her doctor has advised against getting vaccinated because she has “a high level of laboratory tested antibodies whose levels have yet to drop even after several months post-illness”.

New research by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) in Spain published in the journal Nature Communications this weekend reveals that Healthcare workers’ IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 remained constant, if not increasing, seven months after infection.

ISGlobal researcher Carlota Dobano, who led the study, said, “This is the first study that evaluates antibodies to such a large panel of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies over 7 months.”

Gemma Moncunill, the senior co-author of the study, said, “Rather surprisingly, we even saw an increase of IgG anti-spike antibodies in 75 percent of the participants from month five onwards, without any evidence of re-exposure to the virus.”

The research clearly indicates that natural immunity to the virus provides ongoing strong protection, even against new variants. It even discovered Antibodies against human coronaviruses (HCoV) may also protect against COVID-19 infection.

But of course, because that is how the human race has evolved and survived forever!

Meanwhile, relatively little is known about the vaccines, and it is beginning to emerge that double jabbed people can still contract and transmit variants of the virus. The CDC even admits this.

Marsden also notes that the country she was trying to leave, France, now requires her “to succumb to nasal swab antigen tests every 48 hours if I wish to continue accessing everyday venues like public transit, gyms, restaurants, some shopping malls, and bars.”

Referring to her exclusion from Canada, Marsden concludes that “The next step for myself and others subjected to this discrimination should be a court challenge to the federal government’s actions. Government-ordered internment facilities for immune Covid survivors under threat of incarceration have no place in any democracy.”

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/09/2021 – 13:05

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D.C. Gyms Want To Require Vaccination Instead of Masks. The City Said No.


bruce-mars-gJtDg6WfMlQ-unsplash

Last week, Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser reinstated a citywide mask mandate for all indoor spaces, even though the city’s recent uptick in COVID-19 cases has not yet produced a rash of deaths or hospitalizations—and even though the vaccines are proving to be the most remarkably effective tool at preventing severe disease and death.

Masks, unlike getting the vaccine, are a perpetual irritation, especially in certain circumstances like conversing, eating, and exercising. On that last front, a coalition of Washington, D.C., gym owners decided to approach the city with a bargain: They would require customers to be vaccinated if the city would grant them a waiver from the mask mandate.

This deal was a win-win and should have been a no-brainer for the city. The vaccines are a much, much more effective and enduring anti-coronavirus measure than the masks are. Getting people vaccinated is the whole point: No one should want to wear masks forever. If business owners would rather require vaccination than masks, then the government should absolutely let them do that.

So of course, the city said no.

“I asked about the fitness coalition’s request for a waiver from mask mandate if they go vaccine only,” Christina Henderson, a member of the city council, said in a tweet. “DC Health is not granting waivers at the moment. I asked what metrics we need to meet to rescind the mask mandate. They are hesitant to tie to any particular metric.”

One would be forgiven for thinking that the city’s government likes masks better than it likes vaccines. The city is certainly failing to do everything in its power to encourage vaccination, and it’s unwilling to spell out the conditions under which it would even considering lifting the mask mandate.

But requiring masks in all indoor public spaces indefinitely is impractical. Bowser certainly knows that this is impractical, since she isn’t bothering to follow it herself: Indeed, she officiated an indoor maskless wedding mere hours after implementing the mandate. Given her penchant for rank hypocrisy on this front, I’m surprised she did not personally decline gym owners’ offer while teaching a maskless yoga class.

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D.C. Gyms Want To Require Vaccination Instead of Masks. The City Said No.

Last week, Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser reinstated a citywide mask mandate for all indoor spaces, even though the city’s recent uptick in COVID-19 cases has not yet produced a rash of deaths or hospitalizations—and even though the vaccines are proving to be the most remarkably effective tool at preventing severe disease and death.

Masks, unlike getting the vaccine, are a perpetual irritation, especially in certain circumstances like conversing, eating, and exercising. On that last front, a coalition of Washington, D.C., gym owners decided to approach the city with a bargain: They would require customers to be vaccinated if the city would grant them a waiver from the mask mandate.

This deal was a win-win and should have been a no-brainer for the city. The vaccines are a much, much more effective and enduring anti-coronavirus measure than the masks are. Getting people vaccinated is the whole point: No one should want to wear masks forever. If business owners would rather require vaccination than masks, then the government should absolutely let them do that.

So of course, the city said no.

“I asked about the fitness coalition’s request for a waiver from mask mandate if they go vaccine only,” Christina Henderson, a member of the city council, said in a tweet. “DC Health is not granting waivers at the moment. I asked what metrics we need to meet to rescind the mask mandate. They are hesitant to tie to any particular metric.”

One would be forgiven for thinking that the city’s government likes masks better than it likes vaccines. The city is certainly failing to do everything in its power to encourage vaccination, and it’s unwilling to spell out the conditions under which it would even considering lifting the mask mandate.

But requiring masks in all indoor public spaces indefinitely is impractical. Bowser certainly knows that this is impractical, since she isn’t bothering to follow it herself: Indeed, she officiated an indoor maskless wedding mere hours after implementing the mandate. Given her penchant for rank hypocrisy on this front, I’m surprised she did not personally decline gym owners’ offer while teaching a maskless yoga class.

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Fourth Amendment Forbids Handcuffing Driver Just Because He Has Gun + Gun Permit

From Friday’s decision in Soukaneh v. Andrzejewski, written by Judge Janet Bond Arterton (D. Conn.):

At approximately 8:34 pm on November 12, 2018, Plaintiff was operating a Kia Sorento LX in the vicinity of Hillside Avenue and Pine Street in Waterbury, Connecticut. Plaintiff had stopped his vehicle with the engine running in an attempt to unfreeze his iPhone GPS, which was located in a holder mounted to the dashboard. The dark and high-crime area where Plaintiff stopped his vehicle was well-known for prostitution, drug transactions, and other criminal activity.

As Plaintiff was attempting to fix his phone, Defendant approached his vehicle, knocked on the driver’s side window, and requested Plaintiff’s license. Plaintiff handed Defendant his license and gun permit, which he removed from the back of his sun visor. At the time Plaintiff handed over his license and gun permit, he told Defendant that he was in possession of a pistol, which was located in the driver’s side compartment door. Defendant handcuffed and searched Plaintiff, and Defendant forcibly moved Plaintiff to the back of his police car. While Plaintiff was inside the police car in handcuffs, Defendant ran a check through the Northwest Communication Center to determine whether the pistol permit was valid.

The court held that the initial detention for questioning about why the car was stopped there was constitutional:

Defendant’s basis for stopping Plaintiff’s vehicle was that the car was stopped at night in the roadway with the engine running in an area known for drugs and prostitution. In Connecticut, a parked car may “not obstruct or impede the normal and reasonable movement of traffic.” Thus, Defendant observed Plaintiff committing a traffic offense, giving him reasonable suspicion to stop Plaintiff, check his driver’s license, and require him to step out of the car.

But the court held that the handcuffing and detention violated the Fourth Amendment, assuming the facts were as the plaintiff alleged:

Defendant conceded at oral argument that his conduct following the initial stop and check of Plaintiff’s driver’s license exceeded the bounds of a Terry stop, but that the conduct was still justified because he had probable cause to believe Plaintiff was possessing a firearm without a permit as he had not yet been able to verify the validity of the permit….

The question thus becomes whether Plaintiff’s disclosure that he had a pistol in the car coupled with presentation of a facially valid, but not yet verified, permit can “arguably” constitute probable cause to believe that he was unlawfully possessing a weapon in his vehicle. An assessment of arguable probable cause requires consideration of the statute Defendant believed Plaintiff might be violating.

Connecticut General Statutes § 29-38(a) makes the absence of a permit while possessing a firearm inside a vehicle an element of the offense, meaning that there needed to have been some evidence indicating the probability that Plaintiff was not licensed to possess a firearm in order to suspect that he had committed the crime of unlawful possession of a firearm in a vehicle. But at no time did Defendant have any reasonable suspicion or actual knowledge of Plaintiff’s possession of the firearm without simultaneously knowing that Plaintiff demonstrated that he had an apparently valid firearm permit.

Indeed, it is undisputed that Plaintiff told Defendant that he had a pistol in the driver’s side door compartment at the time he handed his driver’s license and pistol permit to Defendant. And in his deposition, Plaintiff stated that when he handed his license and permit to Defendant, he said, “That’s my license and including [sic] my pistol permit, I have a pistol on me.” In the absence of any articulable reason for Defendant to believe the permit was counterfeit or otherwise invalid, there is no indication that Plaintiff was even arguably unlawfully possessing a firearm.

In light of the uncontested fact that Plaintiff presented his pistol permit to Defendant before or at the time he disclosed that he was in possession of a pistol and the absence of any other indicia that Plaintiff was otherwise violating the statute, no reasonable officer could believe probable cause was present. Any contrary holding “would eviscerate Fourth Amendment protections for lawfully armed individuals” by presuming a license expressly permitting possession of a firearm was invalid. To accept Defendant’s reasoning would permit police officers to detain any driver because he or she may have a counterfeit or otherwise invalid driver’s license which has been rejected by the Supreme Court.

Because, on the record read in the light most favorable to the non-moving party, no reasonable police officer could have believed he or she had probable cause to arrest Plaintiff, the Court denies summary judgment on the lawfulness of the de facto arrest ….

The court also held that the law was clear enough that the police officer didn’t have qualified immunity from the claim. And it likewise held as to the follow-up search of the car:

“[T]he search of the passenger compartment of an automobile, limited to those areas in which a weapon may be placed or hidden … if the police officer possesses a reasonable belief based on ‘specific and articulable facts which, taken together with the rational inferences from those facts, reasonably warrant’ the officers in believing that the suspect is dangerous and that the suspect may gain immediate control of weapons.” …

On this record, no reasonable officer could conclude that Plaintiff posed a meaningful threat of being “armed and dangerous” simply because he disclosed that he had a pistol and a license to possess it. Any contrary holding would make it practically impossible for the lawful owner of a firearm to maintain a Fourth Amendment right to privacy in his or her automobile.

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Florida Ban on Private Businesses Requiring Vaccine Verification Likely Violates the First Amendment

In yesterday’s Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Ltd. v. Rivkees, Judge Kathleen M. Williams (S.D. Fla.) issued a preliminary injunction against Florida’s ban on businesses requiring proof of vaccination.

[1.] Judge Williams held that the law likely violated the First Amendment, because it was a content-based restriction on the speech that businesses can demand from customers:

Section 381.00316 is a content-based restriction because, on its face, it draws distinctions based on the message of speech. In other words, it is apparent from the text of the law that speech is regulated differently because of its subject matter and content. The Statute prohibits businesses from requiring their patrons to present “documentation certifying COVID-19 vaccination or post-infection recovery” for access or services. Fla. Stat. § 381.00316(1). However, nothing in the Statute prohibits businesses from demanding documentation of a negative COVID-19 test or any other type of medical or informational documentation.

In fact, because the Statute allows businesses to institute “screening protocols” to protect public health, business entities are expressly permitted to require this type of documentation, including COVID-19 test results, other vaccine documentation, and other types of medical information. Under Section 381.00316, the only documentation businesses cannot demand is COVID-19 vaccine documentation. Accordingly, the statute is a content-based restriction because it singles out documentation regarding a particular subject matter (certification of “COVID-19 vaccination or post-infection recovery”) and subjects it to restrictions (businesses may not require them for entry or services) that do not apply to documents regarding other topics.

Nor could this restriction be defended as being a facet of a general ban on discrimination against the unvaccinated, because apparently no such ban exists:

The reasoning in the case Dana’s R.R. Supply v. Attorney General further illustrates why the Statute is not merely an economic regulation, but a restriction on speech. In Dana, the Eleventh Circuit considered a First Amendment challenge to Florida’s “no-surcharge law,” which made it a second-degree misdemeanor for merchants to impose a “surcharge” for credit card purchases, but allowed them to offer “a discount for the purpose of inducing payment by cash.” At first blush, the law appeared to prohibit “dual-pricing” conduct (i.e., “charging different prices to different customers depending on whether payment is made in cash or by credit card”). However, the court noted that the law did not actually accomplish this objective because merchants could still offer discounts for cash payments, as expressly authorized by the Statute.

Instead, the court found that the law was a restriction on speech because it allowed merchants to engage in dual-pricing, as long as the cost difference was described as a “cash discount” and not a “credit card surcharge.” The Eleventh Circuit explained, “[i]n order to violate the statute, a defendant must communicate the price difference to a customer and that communication must denote the relevant price difference as a credit-card surcharge,” as opposed to a cash discount. As such, the court held that the law was a content-based restriction because it penalized the “wrong choice” of “equally plausible alternative descriptions of an objective reality.” [The U.S. Supreme Court adopted very similar reasoning in Expressions Hair Design v. Schneiderman (2017).]

Similar to the law in Dana’s R.R. Supply, at first blush, Section 381.00316 appears to prohibit businesses from requiring patrons to verify their vaccination status for entry or services. However, a review of the text shows that nothing in the statute forbids businesses from doing so. Instead, the Statute only disallows businesses from requiring customers to verify their vaccination status with “documentation certifying COVID-19 vaccination or post-transmission recovery.” Accordingly, businesses could still require customers to provide oral verification as to whether they have received a COVID-19 vaccination….

[2.] Judge Williams also held that the statute violates the Dormant Commerce Clause as applied to cruise lines; unlike the First Amendment analysis, this part of the decision wouldn’t generally apply to other kinds of business:

The dormant Commerce Clause … limits the authority of states to enact laws that indirectly affect—that substantially burden—interstate commerce…. [W]hen a state statute “regulates even-handedly to effectuate a legitimate local public interest, and its effects on interstate commerce are only incidental, it will be upheld unless the burden imposed on such commerce is clearly excessive in relation to the putative local benefits.” …

[T]he Court presumes that Florida’s decision to enact Section 381.00316 reflects the state’s desire to safeguard its residents’ rights to medical privacy and prevent “discrimination” against unvaccinated residents.

Outside of conclusory characterizations of Florida’s commitment to these concepts as local purposes, Defendant fails to articulate why they are legitimate local purposes or how they weigh against any burdens that the Statute imposes on interstate commerce. Defendant’s mere assertion of protecting medical privacy and preventing “discriminating” against unvaccinated persons, without more, fails to satisfy the dictates of Pike and its progeny. And … Defendant cites to no relevant authority to support his claim that these objectives constitute legitimate state interests.

Furthermore, Section 381.00316 does not actually advance the objectives of protecting “medical privacy” and “discrimination” against unvaccinated individuals in any meaningful way. Among other reasons …, Florida’s failure to regulate employers, COVID-19 test results, and other medical documentation—including documentary proof-of-vaccination requirements for schoolchildren—conflicts with its purported desire to protect medical privacy. The statute also does not actually protect against the “discrimination” of unvaccinated individuals. As explained, cruise lines have adopted measures and practices that differentiate between vaccinated and unvaccinated passengers. {Additionally, there is no record evidence that Plaintiffs intend to maintain or store COVID-19 vaccination documentation for any period of time. Plaintiffs stated at oral argument that they use documentary proof of vaccination for verification purposes only and do not at all maintain, store, or transmit this type of information.}

[And] Plaintiffs are likely to succeed on the merits in showing that Section 381.00316 imposes substantial burdens on interstate commerce that will directly affect their abilities to operate the Norwegian Gem and other vessels. Plaintiffs contend that, because “NCLH’s vessels reach international waters and sail to interstate and foreign ports, many of which require proof of vaccination to enter without testing …. [Section 381.00316] has the effect of blocking or hampering the operation of cruise lines in and out of Florida …. excessively burden[ing] the free flow of commerce between States and between Nations.” … Amid myriad, rapidly-changing requirements regarding quarantining and testing, there is one constant that facilitates cruise line customers’ access to advertised ports of call: documentary proof of vaccination will expedite passengers’ entry into virtually every single country and port where Plaintiffs intend to sail….

Section 381.00316 presents an impediment to commerce analogous to an Illinois law that required trucks to use curved mudguards. See Bibb v. Navajo Freight Lines, Inc., 359 U.S. 520 (1959). In Bibb, the Supreme Court held that an Illinois law unconstitutionally burdened interstate commerce in part because trucks traveling through Illinois from other states could not reasonably comply with the state’s law requiring curved mudguards when Arkansas required, and nearly every other state permitted, trucks to use straight mudguards. The Supreme Court stated that “[a] State which insists on a design out of line with the requirements of almost all the other States may sometimes place a great burden of delay and inconvenience on those interstate motor carriers entering or crossing its territory.” And while such a design “may be so compelling that the innovating State need not be the one to give way,” the Supreme Court determined that Illinois had not met that showing when balanced against “the clear burden on commerce.” … If Plaintiffs abandon their plan to require all passengers to present documentary proof of vaccination (see DE 3-1, at ¶¶ 13–15), and passengers must instead be subjected to an array of diverse quarantining and testing requirements, it will impede the ability of Plaintiffs to manage the business of vessels at foreign and interstate ports and lead to incalculable and unpredictable delays in travel….

[3.] Judge Williams didn’t decide whether the state law is preempted by federal safety regulations, because the other arguments were sufficient to justify the preliminary injunction against the law. But the court stated that “Plaintiffs have raised compelling arguments” supporting such preemption,” which “[t]he Court will address these arguments at a later stage of the proceeding.”

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COVID-19 Is Probably 99% Survivable for Most Age Groups, but PolitiFact Rated This False


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A viral Instagram post claimed that COVID-19 is 99 percent survivable for most age groups—the elderly being an important exception. The post cited projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), but was flagged as misinformation by the social media site and rated “false” by the Poynter Institute’s PolitiFact.

That’s a curious verdict, since the underlying claim is likely true. While estimates of COVID-19’s infection fatality rate (IFR) range from study to study, the expert consensus does indeed place the death rate at below 1 percent for most age groups.

PolitiFact is correct that the CDC’s September 2020 modeling projections should not be used to calculate the IFR. The post also erred in comparing the vaccine efficacy rate of 94 percent to the COVID-19 survivability rate. This is an apples and oranges comparison; it does not mean that the average person’s natural immune response is better at fighting the disease than the vaccines. At present, the overwhelming majority of hospitalized COVID-19 patients are unvaccinated. Since the beginning of the year, 98 percent of COVID-19 deaths in Virginia were among the unvaccinated. The vaccines are not in competition with the body’s natural immune system—they render COVID-19 even more mild, and even more survivable.

To the extent the post is implying that most people have no use for the vaccine, it is indeed a piece of misinformation. But PolitiFact went much further, rating as false the very idea that COVID-19 has a low IFR for most people.

“Experts say a person cannot determine their own chances at surviving COVID-19 by looking at national statistics, because the data doesn’t take into account the person’s own risks and COVID-19 deaths are believed to be undercounted,” wrote PolitiFact. “Survival rate data is not yet available from the CDC. We rate this claim False.”

Deaths are probably undercounted, but so are asymptomatic cases where the infected person’s experience with the disease is so mild that they don’t bother to get tested (which would decrease the IFR). The national case fatality rate, which includes deaths among the hard-hit elderly population, is currently 1.7 percent, according to CDC data. (PolitiFact did not immediately respond to a request for comment.)

Moreover, the suggestion that a person can’t make any reasonable guesses about his own likelihood of surviving COVID-19 given his age group and health status is misleading. Just 300 Americans under the age of 18 have died from COVID-19. Young people can and should infer that they have a high degree of natural immunity against a severe coronavirus health outcome. Policy makers can and should use this information productively: i.e., by reopening schools this fall with minimum restrictions in place.

It often seems like the mainstream media reporters, federal health experts, and policy makers who form Team Blue are so concerned about people taking the pandemic insufficiently seriously that they resort to needless fearmongering. For another example of this, see a recent New York Times headline about long COVID-19 titled “This Is Really Scary,” which makes the as-of-yet completely unsupported claim that even mild infections are causing very serious “mental, physical, and neurological symptoms” in “many” children.

The vast, vast majority of healthy nonelderly people who contract COVID-19 will survive the illness. They should further improve their odds—and reduce their likelihood of infecting anyone else—by getting vaccinated, because even a low percentage of deaths can still mean a great many deaths, in absolute terms, if the infection rate is spiraling out of control. But we don’t need to live in fear, ignorant of the plain reality that the infection fatality rate is, in all likelihood, somewhere in the under–1 percent range for most age groups.

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