Tag: news

3 Things To Know About the ‘New NAFTA’ That Begins Today

dreamstime_xxl_157501385

A little more than 26 years after it ushered in a new era of continent-wide trade, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is no more. Starting today, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) takes over.

The new trade deal is the result of more than two years of negotiation among the leaders of the three countries. It is the most substantial accomplishment of President Donald Trump’s trade policies, but it also demonstrates the extent to which Trump’s unorthodox views on trade have been successfully tempered. After taking office with a vow to tear up NAFTA, Trump ultimately settled for a minor revision to the status quo.

Still, the USMCA is a big deal. Canada and Mexico are the top recipients of U.S. exports. The United States imports more goods from those two countries than anywhere else except China. The deal will affect more than $1 trillion in annual trade between the U.S. and its two neighbors.

Here are three big things to know about the USMCA.

  1. A small retreat for free trade and a win for protectionism.

Although Trump’s supporters sometimes claim that the president is actually pursuing a radical free-trade agenda and only using protectionist tactics to achieve it, the USMCA is strong evidence that Trump would prefer to see more barriers to trade.

For example, the administration pushed for the inclusion of stricter rules that make it more difficult for cars and car parts to cross national borders duty-free. Under the USMCA, 75 percent of the component parts of vehicles would have to be produced in North America to avoid tariffs, and 40 percent would have to be built by workers earning at least $16 an hour—effectively putting a minimum wage on Mexican manufacturing plants with lower wages.

Rather than completely reshaping their supply chains, automobile manufactures are likely to just pay the tariffs. As a result, the International Trade Commission (ITC) estimates that consumer prices on cars in the U.S. will increase, resulting in an estimated 140,000 fewer vehicles sold.

The USMCA also gives Trump (and future presidents) greater powers to impose new tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Already, the Trump administration is looking to do exactly that in response to claims that aluminum imported from Canada have increased this year (even though imports of the metal are still below 2017 levels and well within historical norms). But isn’t the point of a trade deal to encourage more trade?

All trade deals are managed trade, of course, but relative to the standards set by NAFTA, the USMCA seems like a step backward.

2. Crucial updates to protect the flow of data across North American borders.

When NAFTA launched in 1994, there were a few dozen websites online. Today there are…a lot more. Importantly, the USMCA includes a new chapter of provisions aimed at digital trade, ensuring that real-world international borders won’t start popping up in cyberspace.

For example, the USMCA bans the creation of so-called “data-localization requirements”—rules that limit how much traffic can flow from a data center in one country to servers in another. The new agreement also prohibits tariffs on data transfers, and it includes a provision shielding tech companies from liability for content, similar to the protections offered by Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act.

These are necessary and worthwhile updates to NAFTA that will give businesses more certainty about cross-border digital work.

3. More trade, but also more uncertainty.

The ITC’s analysis estimates that the USMCA deal will boost U.S. gross domestic product by about $68 billion while adding an estimated 176,000 jobs in the United States, with the manufacturing sector set to benefit the most. Exports to Canada and Mexico are expected to increase by between 5 and 7 percent.

Then again, NAFTA was a smashing success for the economies of all three countries, and that didn’t prevent it from being vilified by elements of both the right and left—both Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) basically agree that NAFTA has been a disaster, despite all evidence to the contrary.

Politics will always be a threat to free trade, but one of the more worrisome elements of the USMCA is that it will expire after 16 years. That creates built-in uncertainty. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and a key White House adviser, has argued that the trade deal’s sunset clause “is not to encourage USMCA’s early demise, but to ensure that the agreement will continue to serve America’s interests over the long run” by forcing the three countries to return to the negotiating table periodically.

Maybe so, but it also means that we’ll have to cross our fingers and hope there aren’t protectionist governments in power in Mexico City, Ottawa, or Washington, D.C., in 2036.

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Touching Your Phone While Driving Is Now Illegal in Idaho, Illinois, and Indiana

westendrf514194

As Americans celebrate Independence Day this week, state authorities will be armed with all sorts of new ways to restrict our liberty and control us. This includes several states starting to crack down on any cellphone use while driving—and giving police a new pretense for pulling people over.

One such place is Illinois, where it’s now illegal for drivers to so much as touch a cellphone, laptop, or tablet while driving. The state has also started to ban drivers from streaming any videos, and from smoking cigarettes in a vehicle if there’s someone under age 18 in it.

Idaho, too, will ban drivers from using cellphones or any other handheld devices, including when they’re stopped at a traffic light or stop sign, starting today.

Similarly, in Indiana, touching a phone while driving is now off-limits. “You can however make phone calls using a hands free device, or there will be exceptions for calling 911 in an actual emergency situation,” notes WOMI.

In South Dakota, drivers are now banned from using their phones for anything other than talking—and cops can pull over people if they think they see them looking at a phone. (What could go wrong?)

“Texting and driving already was a secondary offense in South Dakota, meaning a driver had to be pulled over for another reason in order to be ticketed,” notes the Sioux Falls Argus Leader. “But the new state law expands banned uses to include taking photos, using the internet, posting to social media, reading emails and using phone apps, and makes it a primary offense, meaning drivers can be pulled over for only using a cell phone.” The offense is classified as a Class 2 misdemeanor.

South Dakota is also making it a Class 2 misdemeanor offense to join a funeral procession you don’t belong to.

Bad new laws taking effect today extend far beyond the roadways. For instance, new restrictions on buying vaping products, cigarettes, and firearms are also in order.

THE BAD

New vaping and smoking laws in Indiana. The state has more than 100 new rules taking effect today, including raising the legal age to purchase tobacco or vape products to 21, doubling the fine for people who sell these products to people under age 21, and banning new stores that sell tobacco from setting up shop within 1,000 feet of any school.

More gun regulations and higher tobacco taxes in Virginia. The state is launching a range of new gun regulations July 1, including banning the buying of more than one firearm in 30-day time span, requiring a background check for all gun purchases, and “allowing attorneys and law enforcement officers to apply for emergency orders to prohibit a person who poses a substantial risk of injury to himself or others from purchasing, possessing or transporting a firearm,” explains Fairfax County’s website.

The state is also raising taxes on cigarettes (from 30 to 60 cents per pack) and creating a new tax of 6.6 cents per milliliter of vape fluid.

Tax and fee increases are also coming, as are regulations that will burden small businesses still reeling from the COVID-19 lockdowns.

For instance, in California, 13 places—including both large cities (like San Francisco and Los Angeles) and smaller ones—will see minimum wage increases today, raising the rate for any business with one to 25 employees to between $13 and $15.40 per hour. Minimum wage hikes will be higher for bigger businesses and for hotels of any size.

California will also start requiring businesses whose independent contractors were recently redefined as employees to start carrying worker’s compensation insurance on them.

Utah, meanwhile, is raising fees on people who bring in boats from out of state.

And authorities all over have cooked up a range of new ways to limit people’s civil liberties, impede due process, and exact revenge on violators.

Sex-crime panic in Colorado. “Use or dissemination of a recording or photo without consent” will now trigger a requirement that someone be added to the state’s sex offender registry. Meanwhile, paying for sex with someone under age 18 is now enough to be convicted of human trafficking. The state’s new human trafficking law also stipulates that not knowing a minor’s age is no defense.

Panhandling ban in Indiana. The state is making asking for money within 50 feet of an ATM, public monument, or business entrance a crime. (The American Civil Liberties Union is already suing.)

Illegal gambling expansion in Virginia. The state is widening its definition of illegal gambling to include “the playing or offering for play of any skill game.”

Tennessee ratchets up penalties for already dubious crimes. “A new law passed this year cracking down on those who flee an arrest,” reports 1057 News. “The measure requires an offender evading arrest to pay restitution if he or she recklessly damages government property.”

THE GOOD

But there’s some good news in this batch of July 1 law changes, too.

Virginia is decriminalizing marijuana, dropping mandatory minimums for license lawbreakers, stopping collection of marriage/race data, letting nurse practitioners perform abortions, ditching their ultrasound law, and extending absentee voting. In a report on the July 1 changes, the state explains that simple marijuana possession under the new law “provides a civil penalty of no more than $25,” whereas the old law “imposes a maximum fine of $500 and a maximum 30-day jail sentence for a first offense, and subsequent offenses are a Class 1 misdemeanor.” People in Virginia can also administer naloxone to someone who is overdosing without getting in trouble.

The state will also start:

  • “eliminat[ing] the mandatory minimum term of confinement in jail of 10 days for a third or subsequent conviction of driving on a suspended license”
  • removing a requirement that requires race to be listed on marriage and divorce reports
  • letting nurse practitioners perform first-trimester abortions

It is also eliminating a requirement that a woman seeking an abortion get an ultrasound before offering informed written consent.

In addition, Virginia will extend “no-excuse absentee voting” to a 45-day period. And it will start letting localities make their own decisions about monuments on public property.

Educator licensing simplified in Oklahoma. The state is making it easier for teachers licensed in another state to obtain a teaching certificate in Oklahoma.

Indiana waives gun fees. The state is extending the period of time its gun licenses are good for from four to five years and waiving all state and local fees associated with gun licensing except for fingerprinting costs.

Beer in barbershops. Maryland will start letting barbershops and beauty salons serve beer and wine on premises during business hours.

Florida takes steps toward school choice and more humane treatment of prisoners. Florida is expanding tax credits and scholarship programs for private schools, as well as making some makes small attempts to better protect pregnant women who are incarcerated. (The law, however, still “maintains current provisions related to the use of restraints on pregnant prisoners” and allows for these restraints, and body cavity searches, so long as facilities have written policies pertaining to them.)

South Dakota loosens voter ID law, protects sexual assault evidence, and limits the criminalization of addiction during pregnancy. The state will start letting people use forms of ID other than a driver’s license to register to vote. In addition, DNA evidence collected in sexual assault investigations will have to be kept longer, up from one year to at least seven years, or until the victim reaches the age of 25. And “certain controlled substances offenses shall be dropped for a woman who is pregnant if she: receives adequate prenatal care from a licensed health care professional during her pregnancy; enrolls in an addiction recovery program before the child is born, remains in the program after the birth and completes the addiction recovery program,” notes the Argus Leader.

Tennessee takes a step toward deregulating health care: “State lawmakers voted this year to expand Tennessee’s Health Care Empowerment Act to allow all licensed medical professionals, instead of only physicians, to use direct medical care agreements without regulation by the insurance laws of this state,” notes 1057 News. “The Health Care Empowerment Act is designed to give healthcare consumers who are struggling to pay the increasing costs of premiums or who have been priced out of the market, an affordable option to contract directly with their physician for health care services. The new law holds that a person seeking medical care outside of an insurance plan, TennCare or Medicare programs and chooses to pay out of pocket, does not forfeit their coverage plan.”

THE WEIRD

Defying the good/bad binary are a few laws that are just plain weird or amusing. For instance, “Hoosier employers will no longer be able to force potential employees to get microchips implanted into their bodies,” notes RTV6 Indianapolis.

A Florida law taking effect today “aims to crack down on the abuse of emotional support animal certifications.”

Tennessee will start allowing sidewalk robots, so as long as they don’t travel at a speed greater than 10 miles per hour.

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3 Things To Know About the ‘New NAFTA’ That Begins Today

dreamstime_xxl_157501385

A little more than 26 years after it ushered in a new era of continent-wide trade, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is no more. Starting today, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) takes over.

The new trade deal is the result of more than two years of negotiation among the leaders of the three countries. It is the most substantial accomplishment of President Donald Trump’s trade policies, but it also demonstrates the extent to which Trump’s unorthodox views on trade have been successfully tempered. After taking office with a vow to tear up NAFTA, Trump ultimately settled for a minor revision to the status quo.

Still, the USMCA is a big deal. Canada and Mexico are the top recipients of U.S. exports. The United States imports more goods from those two countries than anywhere else except China. The deal will affect more than $1 trillion in annual trade between the U.S. and its two neighbors.

Here are three big things to know about the USMCA.

  1. A small retreat for free trade and a win for protectionism.

Although Trump’s supporters sometimes claim that the president is actually pursuing a radical free-trade agenda and only using protectionist tactics to achieve it, the USMCA is strong evidence that Trump would prefer to see more barriers to trade.

For example, the administration pushed for the inclusion of stricter rules that make it more difficult for cars and car parts to cross national borders duty-free. Under the USMCA, 75 percent of the component parts of vehicles would have to be produced in North America to avoid tariffs, and 40 percent would have to be built by workers earning at least $16 an hour—effectively putting a minimum wage on Mexican manufacturing plants with lower wages.

Rather than completely reshaping their supply chains, automobile manufactures are likely to just pay the tariffs. As a result, the International Trade Commission (ITC) estimates that consumer prices on cars in the U.S. will increase, resulting in an estimated 140,000 fewer vehicles sold.

The USMCA also gives Trump (and future presidents) greater powers to impose new tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Already, the Trump administration is looking to do exactly that in response to claims that aluminum imported from Canada have increased this year (even though imports of the metal are still below 2017 levels and well within historical norms). But isn’t the point of a trade deal to encourage more trade?

All trade deals are managed trade, of course, but relative to the standards set by NAFTA, the USMCA seems like a step backward.

2. Crucial updates to protect the flow of data across North American borders.

When NAFTA launched in 1994, there were a few dozen websites online. Today there are…a lot more. Importantly, the USMCA includes a new chapter of provisions aimed at digital trade, ensuring that real-world international borders won’t start popping up in cyberspace.

For example, the USMCA bans the creation of so-called “data-localization requirements”—rules that limit how much traffic can flow from a data center in one country to servers in another. The new agreement also prohibits tariffs on data transfers, and it includes a provision shielding tech companies from liability for content, similar to the protections offered by Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act.

These are necessary and worthwhile updates to NAFTA that will give businesses more certainty about cross-border digital work.

3. More trade, but also more uncertainty.

The ITC’s analysis estimates that the USMCA deal will boost U.S. gross domestic product by about $68 billion while adding an estimated 176,000 jobs in the United States, with the manufacturing sector set to benefit the most. Exports to Canada and Mexico are expected to increase by between 5 and 7 percent.

Then again, NAFTA was a smashing success for the economies of all three countries, and that didn’t prevent it from being vilified by elements of both the right and left—both Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) basically agree that NAFTA has been a disaster, despite all evidence to the contrary.

Politics will always be a threat to free trade, but one of the more worrisome elements of the USMCA is that it will expire after 16 years. That creates built-in uncertainty. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and a key White House adviser, has argued that the trade deal’s sunset clause “is not to encourage USMCA’s early demise, but to ensure that the agreement will continue to serve America’s interests over the long run” by forcing the three countries to return to the negotiating table periodically.

Maybe so, but it also means that we’ll have to cross our fingers and hope there aren’t protectionist governments in power in Mexico City, Ottawa, or Washington, D.C., in 2036.

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Touching Your Phone While Driving Is Now Illegal in Idaho, Illinois, and Indiana

westendrf514194

As Americans celebrate Independence Day this week, state authorities will be armed with all sorts of new ways to restrict our liberty and control us. This includes several states starting to crack down on any cellphone use while driving—and giving police a new pretense for pulling people over.

One such place is Illinois, where it’s now illegal for drivers to so much as touch a cellphone, laptop, or tablet while driving. The state has also started to ban drivers from streaming any videos, and from smoking cigarettes in a vehicle if there’s someone under age 18 in it.

Idaho, too, will ban drivers from using cellphones or any other handheld devices, including when they’re stopped at a traffic light or stop sign, starting today.

Similarly, in Indiana, touching a phone while driving is now off-limits. “You can however make phone calls using a hands free device, or there will be exceptions for calling 911 in an actual emergency situation,” notes WOMI.

In South Dakota, drivers are now banned from using their phones for anything other than talking—and cops can pull over people if they think they see them looking at a phone. (What could go wrong?)

“Texting and driving already was a secondary offense in South Dakota, meaning a driver had to be pulled over for another reason in order to be ticketed,” notes the Sioux Falls Argus Leader. “But the new state law expands banned uses to include taking photos, using the internet, posting to social media, reading emails and using phone apps, and makes it a primary offense, meaning drivers can be pulled over for only using a cell phone.” The offense is classified as a Class 2 misdemeanor.

South Dakota is also making it a Class 2 misdemeanor offense to join a funeral procession you don’t belong to.

Bad new laws taking effect today extend far beyond the roadways. For instance, new restrictions on buying vaping products, cigarettes, and firearms are also in order.

THE BAD

New vaping and smoking laws in Indiana. The state has more than 100 new rules taking effect today, including raising the legal age to purchase tobacco or vape products to 21, doubling the fine for people who sell these products to people under age 21, and banning new stores that sell tobacco from setting up shop within 1,000 feet of any school.

More gun regulations and higher tobacco taxes in Virginia. The state is launching a range of new gun regulations July 1, including banning the buying of more than one firearm in 30-day time span, requiring a background check for all gun purchases, and “allowing attorneys and law enforcement officers to apply for emergency orders to prohibit a person who poses a substantial risk of injury to himself or others from purchasing, possessing or transporting a firearm,” explains Fairfax County’s website.

The state is also raising taxes on cigarettes (from 30 to 60 cents per pack) and creating a new tax of 6.6 cents per milliliter of vape fluid.

Tax and fee increases are also coming, as are regulations that will burden small businesses still reeling from the COVID-19 lockdowns.

For instance, in California, 13 places—including both large cities (like San Francisco and Los Angeles) and smaller ones—will see minimum wage increases today, raising the rate for any business with one to 25 employees to between $13 and $15.40 per hour. Minimum wage hikes will be higher for bigger businesses and for hotels of any size.

California will also start requiring businesses whose independent contractors were recently redefined as employees to start carrying worker’s compensation insurance on them.

Utah, meanwhile, is raising fees on people who bring in boats from out of state.

And authorities all over have cooked up a range of new ways to limit people’s civil liberties, impede due process, and exact revenge on violators.

Sex-crime panic in Colorado. “Use or dissemination of a recording or photo without consent” will now trigger a requirement that someone be added to the state’s sex offender registry. Meanwhile, paying for sex with someone under age 18 is now enough to be convicted of human trafficking. The state’s new human trafficking law also stipulates that not knowing a minor’s age is no defense.

Panhandling ban in Indiana. The state is making asking for money within 50 feet of an ATM, public monument, or business entrance a crime. (The American Civil Liberties Union is already suing.)

Illegal gambling expansion in Virginia. The state is widening its definition of illegal gambling to include “the playing or offering for play of any skill game.”

Tennessee ratchets up penalties for already dubious crimes. “A new law passed this year cracking down on those who flee an arrest,” reports 1057 News. “The measure requires an offender evading arrest to pay restitution if he or she recklessly damages government property.”

THE GOOD

But there’s some good news in this batch of July 1 law changes, too.

Virginia is decriminalizing marijuana, dropping mandatory minimums for license lawbreakers, stopping collection of marriage/race data, letting nurse practitioners perform abortions, ditching their ultrasound law, and extending absentee voting. In a report on the July 1 changes, the state explains that simple marijuana possession under the new law “provides a civil penalty of no more than $25,” whereas the old law “imposes a maximum fine of $500 and a maximum 30-day jail sentence for a first offense, and subsequent offenses are a Class 1 misdemeanor.” People in Virginia can also administer naloxone to someone who is overdosing without getting in trouble.

The state will also start:

  • “eliminat[ing] the mandatory minimum term of confinement in jail of 10 days for a third or subsequent conviction of driving on a suspended license”
  • removing a requirement that requires race to be listed on marriage and divorce reports
  • letting nurse practitioners perform first-trimester abortions

It is also eliminating a requirement that a woman seeking an abortion get an ultrasound before offering informed written consent.

In addition, Virginia will extend “no-excuse absentee voting” to a 45-day period. And it will start letting localities make their own decisions about monuments on public property.

Educator licensing simplified in Oklahoma. The state is making it easier for teachers licensed in another state to obtain a teaching certificate in Oklahoma.

Indiana waives gun fees. The state is extending the period of time its gun licenses are good for from four to five years and waiving all state and local fees associated with gun licensing except for fingerprinting costs.

Beer in barbershops. Maryland will start letting barbershops and beauty salons serve beer and wine on premises during business hours.

Florida takes steps toward school choice and more humane treatment of prisoners. Florida is expanding tax credits and scholarship programs for private schools, as well as making some makes small attempts to better protect pregnant women who are incarcerated. (The law, however, still “maintains current provisions related to the use of restraints on pregnant prisoners” and allows for these restraints, and body cavity searches, so long as facilities have written policies pertaining to them.)

South Dakota loosens voter ID law, protects sexual assault evidence, and limits the criminalization of addiction during pregnancy. The state will start letting people use forms of ID other than a driver’s license to register to vote. In addition, DNA evidence collected in sexual assault investigations will have to be kept longer, up from one year to at least seven years, or until the victim reaches the age of 25. And “certain controlled substances offenses shall be dropped for a woman who is pregnant if she: receives adequate prenatal care from a licensed health care professional during her pregnancy; enrolls in an addiction recovery program before the child is born, remains in the program after the birth and completes the addiction recovery program,” notes the Argus Leader.

Tennessee takes a step toward deregulating health care: “State lawmakers voted this year to expand Tennessee’s Health Care Empowerment Act to allow all licensed medical professionals, instead of only physicians, to use direct medical care agreements without regulation by the insurance laws of this state,” notes 1057 News. “The Health Care Empowerment Act is designed to give healthcare consumers who are struggling to pay the increasing costs of premiums or who have been priced out of the market, an affordable option to contract directly with their physician for health care services. The new law holds that a person seeking medical care outside of an insurance plan, TennCare or Medicare programs and chooses to pay out of pocket, does not forfeit their coverage plan.”

THE WEIRD

Defying the good/bad binary are a few laws that are just plain weird or amusing. For instance, “Hoosier employers will no longer be able to force potential employees to get microchips implanted into their bodies,” notes RTV6 Indianapolis.

A Florida law taking effect today “aims to crack down on the abuse of emotional support animal certifications.”

Tennessee will start allowing sidewalk robots, so as long as they don’t travel at a speed greater than 10 miles per hour.

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Huge Political Disconnect Over The State Of The Economy

Huge Political Disconnect Over The State Of The Economy

Tyler Durden

Wed, 07/01/2020 – 10:20

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

In 2008 everyone knew the economy was in bad shape. Today, views vary tremendously by party affiliation.

FiveThirtyEight discusses how politics shapes how people perceive the economy.

The U.S. economy is objectively awful right now. The unemployment rate is at levels not seen since the Great Depression and this quarter’s decline in gross domestic product is expected to be the worst on record. Most economists believe it will take years to recover from this recession.

In the most recent Quinnipiac University national survey, 69 percent of Republicans described the U.S. economy as “excellent” or “good.” Similarly, nearly two-thirds of Republicans in both Civiqs’s daily tracking polls and in a June 11-15 Associated Press/NORC Poll said that the nation’s current economy is at least leaning toward good. By contrast, only around 10 percent of Democrats thought that the national economy was doing well in those surveys.

Of course, the difficulty is that these attitudes aren’t just partisanship either. After eight years of Obama’s presidency, racial and economic anxiety became increasingly intertwined to the point that racial resentment was a much stronger predictor of economic pessimism under Obama than it had been under George W. Bush. That is, white people — especially white Trump voters — believed that Black people were getting ahead while they were left behind.

Take the 2016 American National Election Studies survey. Before Trump took office, the more racial discrimination white people thought their own group faced, the more likely they were to say that the economy was worse than it had been a year earlier.

Greatest Economy in History

China’s Fault

Great Day for George Floyd

Trump even said Jobs Numbers ‘Great day’ for George Floyd.

Trump Approval Rating

Approval rating chart from FiveThirtyEight, anecdotes are mine.

Core Support

When Trump makes a Tweet or a claim, no matter what it is, his core supporters tend to believe it. 

Core support is roughly 36-38% of the country and perhaps 80-90% of Republicans.

They will back Trump no matter what he says or does. And in the case of the economy they believe what he says as well.

Independents Will Decide the Election

Similarly, there is a huge percentage of core Democrats who will automatically disagree with anything Trump says or does. 

The core voters in neither party will not decide the election. The independents and swing voters will.

Each dip in favorability ratings represents a dip in how independents will vote. And that shows up in the polls as well.

Florida Polls

Going back a bit further, Trump is behind in 14 consecutive polls. 

I discussed the setup in Trump is Trailing Badly in All Recent Florida Polls: Why?

Key Reasons

  1. Independents go for Biden by 22 points (40-18 percent); however, a large number, 42 percent, are undecided or voting for a third-party candidate.

  2. By wide margins, Florida voters prefer Biden to Trump to manage immigration (50-40 percent), coronavirus (49-36 percent), and race relations (52-34 percent).

  3. By a 4-point spread, they trust Trump (47 percent) over Biden (43 percent) on the economy.

  4. Defections among core supporters are part of the president’s problem: 9 percent of Republicans, 8 percent of those who approve of Trump, and 8 percent of 2016 Trump voters back Biden in the matchup.

So Trump can appeal to the base all he wants, but he better do something about independents, race relations, and immigration.

Instead, Trump has been going backwards. 

If Trump does not win Florida, the election is over.

Think about the economy for a bit. How does “greatest economy ever” sound to 20 million people out of work? 

The core may be convinced, but that won’t matter anyway. What about the independents?

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/38gwChI Tyler Durden

Precious Metals Pummeled – Who Needs Safe-Havens When We Have A ‘Vaccine’?

Precious Metals Pummeled – Who Needs Safe-Havens When We Have A ‘Vaccine’?

Tyler Durden

Wed, 07/01/2020 – 10:09

Medical data on 24 people promoted via press release… stocks panic-bid and precious metals puked…

This morning’s vaccine headlines were enough to prompt selling to accelerate into the London Fix and bust stops through $1800…

Silver was also hit but remains above $18…

What more did you expect after Gold made all the headlines yesterday? Benoit’s back!

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2CQcYgP Tyler Durden

US Manufacturing Survey Jumps By Record In June (In Contraction & Expansion)

US Manufacturing Survey Jumps By Record In June (In Contraction & Expansion)

Tyler Durden

Wed, 07/01/2020 – 10:05

Despite the record surge in the US Macro Surprise Index, May’s rebound in ‘soft’ survey data was much more mixed than many prefer to cherry-pick (PMI rebound much more dramatic than ISM), but flash PMIs suggest June saw the re-opening euphoria is set to accelerate…

  • ISM Manufacturing in Expansion – 52.6 vs 49.8 expectations and 43.1 prior – best since April 2019

  • PMI Manufacturing in Contraction – 49.8 vs 49.6 expectations and 39.8 prior – a record 10 point jump

Source: Bloomberg

Markit’s PMI noted that employment across the manufacturing sector declined for the fourth month running in June, as firms shed workers at a moderate pace following subdued demand. Signs of excess capacity remained evident as manufacturers registered a sharp reduction in backlogs of work. However, the overall loss of jobs was considerably weaker than those seen in the prior two months.

The PMI recorded its largest increase since August 1980, when it increased 10.5 percentage points. Among the big six industries, three of the industry sectors expanded. New Orders and Production returned to expansion, and at respectable levels. Supplier Deliveries reached a normal level of tension between supply and demand. Five of the 10 subindexes registered expansion, a marked improvement from previous periods.

ISM’s data showed a surge in new orders but far less of a jump in employment…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest increase in new orders ever…

Source: Bloomberg

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“US manufacturers have reported a marked turnaround in business conditions through the second quarter, with collapsing production and demand in April at the height of the COVID-19 lockdown turning rapidly to stabilisation by June. The PMI posted a record 10-point rise in June amid unprecedented gains in the survey’s output, employment and order book gauges.

“The record rise in the New Orders Index, coupled with low inventory holdings, bodes well for a further improvement in production momentum in July. A record upturn in business sentiment about the year ahead likewise hints that business spending and employment will start to revive.

“However, while the PMI currently points to a strong v-shaped recovery, concerns have risen that momentum could be lost if rising numbers of virus infections lead to renewed restrictions and cause demand to weaken again.”

It would appear hope is back as a strategy, but overall take your pick – is the US manufacturing sector expanding or contracting?

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2BSnKTx Tyler Durden

Tesla Surpasses Toyota, Becomes World’s Most Valuable Automaker

Tesla Surpasses Toyota, Becomes World’s Most Valuable Automaker

Tyler Durden

Wed, 07/01/2020 – 09:52

It seems just earlier this week that Tesla surpassed $1,000 per share, which it did… on Monday.

Fast forward 48 hours when the stock which has now become a poster child for everything that is berserk in our banana markets has sprinted from $1,000 to $1,117 this morning on absolutely no news just more daytrading momentum, its market cap rising by $20 billion in two days…

… its market cap now surpassing $203 billion – making it not only more valuable than oil E&P giant Exxon, a company which literally moves the world -but also surpassing Toyota’s market cap, making Tesla the world’s most valuable car maker.

So with this record valuation, one would think that TSLA would rush to sell stock and prefund its cash burn for years ahead, right? Wrong: it appears there is zero institutional interest in an offering at this price, which means that TSLA stock can continue soaring even higher on retail daytrading euphoria – validating Musk’s ego – while institutions quietly dump all their shares to the Robinhodler army. 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3dQrIsM Tyler Durden

Goldman: Over 40% Of The US Has Reversed Or Placed Reopenings On Hold

Goldman: Over 40% Of The US Has Reversed Or Placed Reopenings On Hold

Tyler Durden

Wed, 07/01/2020 – 09:35

In its latest state-level coronavirus tracker, Goldman calculates that 40% of the US has now reversed or placed reopening on hold. As the bank recaps, Arizona has now joined Florida, Texas and California in beginning to reverse reopening policy, bringing the share of the population in states where policy is becoming more restrictive up to 30% over just the past five days. Governors of several smaller states have announced their reopenings are on hold, and yesterday the governors of New York, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut each said they are considering postponing reopening plans as well.

With case growth still accelerating nationwide, Goldman writes that “states are likely to continue to take further targeted measures to attempt to mitigate virus spread and maintain available healthcare capacity at sustainable levels.”

Some more details from the report:

  • On Monday, the governor of Arizona issued an executive order closing bars, gyms, movie theaters, and water parks. In the order, the governor acknowledges that “there has not been sufficient time for mask mandates and limiting groups to have a demonstrable effect on containing the spread” and as a result the state must take further measures to contain the virus. The governor was pessimistic about the near-term outlook and said in a press conference that he expects the data to deteriorate over the next week.
  • It will likely take several days or longer for these latest change to have an effect on virus spread and health care resource utilization. Arizona meets none of the federal gating criteria recommended for reopening, and further steps in the state may be necessary to limit the spread of the virus, especially if hospitalizations continue to increase.
  • With Arizona now reversing the direction of its reopening policy, over 40% of the population is in a state that has halted reopening or reversed course. Yesterday, officials in other states including New York and Connecticut said they may follow  other states’ lead in putting reopening explicitly on hold. In Pennsylvania, localities in the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia areas have put their reopenings on hold, and the state governor has indicated he could take action at the state level.

States that have re-imposed stricter policy:

  • Florida: on-site alcohol sales prohibited at bars. Restaurants may continue in-person service.
  • Texas: restaurants must return to 50% occupancy limits, down from 75%. On-site alcohol sales prohibited at bars. Certain hospitals in large metro areas must postpone non-critical elective medical procedures. Further reopening plans placed on hold.
  • California: for 15 counties on the state’s “monitoring list,” on-site alcohol sales prohibited at bars. Restaurants may continue in-person service.
  • Arizona: the governor issued an executive order closing bars, gyms, movie theaters and water parks.

States that have postponed reopening plans or placed them on hold indefinitely:

  • Nevada, June 15: the governor said in a press conference the state is still “in the middle” of the pandemic and is not ready to move to its third phase.
  • Michigan, June 23: the governor announced the state would not move into its fifth phase, as expected, until new data show such a move is appropriate.
  • North Carolina, June 24: the governor announced the state will remain in its second phase of reopening for three more weeks and also imposed mask-wearing requirements.
  • Arkansas, June 25: the governor said in a press conference that the state is “on pause at two-thirds…until we feel comfortable [lifting] additional restrictions.”
  • Delaware, June 25: the governor delayed the third phase of reopening, which was scheduled for June 29, and plans to reevaluate in the next few days.
  • Idaho, June 25: the governor announced the state had not met the necessary criteria to move forward to its next phase and will remain in its fourth phase and adopt a regional reopening approach.
  • Louisiana, June 25: the governor extended the state’s second phase of reopening by four weeks, saying the data are “crystal clear” that the state is not ready to move forward.
  • New Mexico, June 25: the governor said in a press conference that the state will “pause a week or more” and that if new case counts increase further, the state may “slow reopenings, or worse.”
  • New Jersey, June 29: the governor said in a press conference that the state will not move forward with reopening in-person dining this week because of worsening virus conditions in other states.

Below is Goldman’s latest state-level coronavirus summary tracker:

As the next chart from Goldman shows, the pace of virus spread is increasing in several states, pulling the trend higher nationally. The estimated effective reproductive number (Rt), which measures the change in growth in new confirmed cases adjusted for testing volume, has risen to 1.10 on a population-weighted basis, indicating an acceleration in case growth nationwide.

Separately, in testimony to Congress, Anthony Fauci said the virus trend is “going in the wrong direction” nationally, and he expects new case counts could rise significantly further with Goldman adding that nationally, prevalence of symptoms, daily new cases, and the positive test rate are still increasing, and noting that states representing 8% of the population– Arizona, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Georgia–are meeting none of the federal criteria for reopening, and only 3 states representing 4% of the population are meeting all 4 criteria.

Additionally, Goldman writes that hospitalizations continue to increase in a few states across the South and Southwest where available hospital capacity is already low; at the same time, the prevalence of Covid-like illness symptoms and new cases per million are declining only in a few states, and the estimated effective reproductive number Rt (growth in new cases adjusted for testing) stands at 1.10 nationally. The positive test rate is rising nationally but remains below 10% in most states, and hospital capacity remains in passing territory for states representing most of the population.

In addition to the four gating criteria recommended by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) that we track, several states also list adequately high levels of contact tracing as one of the benchmarks they should meet to proceed with reopening. Today CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said that contact tracing infrastructure nationally is in poor condition and “in need of aggressive modernization.” According to Dr. Redfield, contact tracing is only valuable when conducted “in real time.”

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3ihvYFf Tyler Durden

“A Single-Handed Symbol Of White Supremacy”: Wisconsin Students Demand Removal Of Abraham Lincoln Statue

“A Single-Handed Symbol Of White Supremacy”: Wisconsin Students Demand Removal Of Abraham Lincoln Statue

Tyler Durden

Wed, 07/01/2020 – 09:15

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We have been discussing the wanton destruction of public memorial and statues across the country, including baffling attacks on abolitionists and those who fought against slavery.  One of the most incongruous targets has been Abraham Lincoln in various cities. 

Now, students at the University of Wisconsin, including the Black Student Union and the Student Inclusion Coalition, have demanded the removal of Lincoln’s statue as ‘a single-handed symbol of white supremacy.” The signer of the Emancipation Proclamation, the vocal advocate for the 13th Amendment, and the man assassinated for his war against the South and slavery.

Saying that Lincoln is the “symbol of white supremacy” has about as much foundation as saying Harvey Milk is the symbol of militant heterosexuality.  Both were great leaders who were killed at the height of campaigns for equality.  As I discuss below, there are aspects of Lincoln’s legacy that are worthy of condemnation but even John Wilkes Booth would dispute the claim of Lincoln as the embodiment of white supremacy.

Wisconsin has been much in the news lately with scenes of the destruction of statues including that of Civil War abolitionist Hans Christian Heg and another of a female figure representing the state’s “Forward” motto.  When Democratic  Sen. Tim Carpenter took a picture of the protesters, he was attacked and required surgery for his injuries.

State Sen. Tim Carpenter posted a video showing demonstrators rushing toward him during Tuesday night’s demonstrations. (Screenshot via Twitter)(Screenshot via Twitter)

Administrators and faculty have been largely silent in the face of the destruction of statues including the toppling of George Washington’s bust on our own campus at George Washington University.  There is a palpable sense of fear that objections to such destruction will bring accusations of racism or campaigns to remove faculty.  We have already seen journalists and academics face such campaigns.

To the credit of these students, they are seeking such changes through dialogue and mutual agreement with the university.  Indeed, the effort allows for a discussion of not just the great deeds but the great wrongs revealed in such historical legacies.  These students did the right thing in raising their objections to Lincoln and starting a discussion on their campus as to whether he is the worthy figure for such a prominent place of honor.

The students want the prominent statue on Bascom Hill removed.

Students point out that Lincoln ordered the execution of 38 Dakota men and signed the Homestead Act, which gave settlers land forcibly taken from Native Americans.

Black Student Union president Nalah McWhorter declared “For him to be at the top of Bascom [Hill] as a powerful placement on our campus, it’s a single-handed symbol of white supremacy.”

The Dakota executions have long been controversial.  The Sioux or Dakota uprising occurred not long after Minnesota became a state and involved the death of hundreds of settlers.  The Army crushed the Sioux and captured hundreds.  A military tribunal sentenced 303 to death for alleged crimes against civilians and other crimes.  The trial itself was a farce with no real representation or reliable evidence.  Lincoln reviewed the transcripts of the 303 and told the Senate:

“Anxious to not act with so much clemency as to encourage another outbreak on one hand, nor with so much severity as to be real cruelty on the other, I ordered a careful examination of the records of the trials to be made, in view of first ordering the execution of such as had been proved guilty of violating females.”

However, only two men were found guilty of rape and Lincoln later expanded the criteria to include those who participated in “massacres” of civilians as opposed to battles with the Army.

Lincoln however commuted the sentence of 264 of the 303 convicted.

This is not the first time Lincoln has faced the ire of some in Wisconsin. When Lincoln called the nation to war against the South, many in Wisconsin did not support the cause and rioted against Lincoln.  Ultimately, however, Wisconsin sent multiple regiments who fought valiantly in the War and sacrificed much to defeat both the South and slavery.

[ZH: It’s not just Wisconsin student ‘activists’ that want Abe’s likeness removed, The Blaze reports that the Boston Art Commission voted unanimously on Tuesday to remove a statue commemorating Abraham Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation, which ended slavery.

Boston Mayor Marty Walsh issued a statement of support for the decision.

“As we continue our work to make Boston a more equitable and just city, it’s important that we look at the stories being told by the public art in all of our neighborhoods,” Walsh said.

One petition garnered more than 12,000 signatures to remove the statue.]

Having a statue to a leader like Lincoln is not an endorsement of his entire legacy. I have heavily criticized Lincoln for the unconstitutional suspension of habeas corpus and the loss of free speech rights as well as other decisions.  We learn from such public memorials, which can be augmented with a more full historical context and criticism.  However, to say that Lincoln is a symbol of white supremacy ignores his pivotal role in fighting slavery, a cause for which he would ultimately give his own life.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/38fRDZQ Tyler Durden