White House Picks 5 ‘Finalists’ For Vaccine Candidate Trials

White House Picks 5 ‘Finalists’ For Vaccine Candidate Trials

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/03/2020 – 13:28

Despite a paucity of scientific evidence that has prompted many experts to warn that these decisions are dangerously premature, the White House has reportedly selected five companies as “the most likely candidates to produce a vaccine”, in keeping with “Project Warpspeed”, Trump’s White House-based initiative to start mass-innoculation by the end of the year.

The five companies mentioned are Moderna, AstraZeneca, J&J, Merck, and Pfizer. The decision will reportedly be made over the next few weeks.

The Trump administration has selected five companies as the most likely candidates to produce a vaccine for the coronavirus, senior officials said, a critical step in the White House’s effort to deliver on its promise of being able to start widespread inoculation of Americans by the end of the year.

By winnowing the field in a matter of weeks from a pool of around a dozen companies, the federal government is betting that it can identify the most promising vaccine projects at an early stage, speed along the process of determining which will work and ensure that the winner or winners can be quickly manufactured in huge quantities and distributed across the country.

The announcement of the decision will be made at the White House in the next few weeks, government officials said. Dr. Fauci apparently hinted at the coming action on Tuesday when he told a medical seminar that “by the beginning of 2021 we hope to have a couple of hundred million doses,” according to the NYT, though this isn’t the first time Dr. Fauci has made that claim. It is, after all, the stated goal of “Project Warp Speed”.

This leak is just the latest attempt by the White House to keep pumping market confidence with overhyped vaccine-linked headlines.

Hot biotech stocks like Inovio and Novavax sold off after they weren’t mentioned in the NYT report.

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Why The Recovery Will Fall Short Of Forecasts

Why The Recovery Will Fall Short Of Forecasts

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/03/2020 – 13:25

Authored by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Market pundits seem to have strong opinions about how fast or slow the economic recovery will be once it starts. Such clairvoyance is stunning given the uncertainty of the current GDP forecast, which is already two-thirds in the books.

If the world’s leading economists cannot come to any consensus about today, why should we assume anyone has clarity for tomorrow?

We do not have great clarity either, but we can provide guidance using what we know about the past and present. Our logic presented here is grounded in optimistic assumptions and historical data. The result is an outcome that is well below the hope-based forecasts of most economists. 

Quite frankly, what we present today may be the best possible scenario. It strays far from the popular narrative but deserves serious consideration.

Alphabet Economy

Will the economy recover in “V”, “U” or “L” – shaped fashion?

We hope for a speedy “V”-shaped recovery, but we are realists and understand that the odds of quickly rekindling the economic growth rates from the prior decade are poor. Our stark assessment is due to numerous factors that existed well before the virus and the extreme fiscal and monetary policy responses to the virus.

The last sentence is loaded. We will follow it up in future articles explaining why a full recovery is so difficult. In the meantime, we present a simple economic model, using very optimistic assumptions showing why this recovery is likely to be measured in years, not months.

It is important to stress; the assumptions in our model are the best case. It is easy to come up with more severe scenarios.

GDP

Gross domestic product (GDP) is how economic activity and growth are quantified. GDP is the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), gross business investment, net government spending, and the amount of exports less imports.

The most substantial weighting in GDP is personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Over the prior economic expansion, lasting a decade, PCE constituted 74% of GDP. Since 1948, it has averaged 65%.

The outsized significance of consumption and the secondary effect it has on the other contributors to GDP, allows economists to use PCE as a proxy to forecast economic growth. Statistically, using three-year moving averages, PCE and Real GDP have a correlation of .7789.

Jobs > PCE > GDP

As PCE drives GDP, labor drives PCE. The vast majority of families in the U.S. work to consume. Some wealthy households can rely on investments and savings, and some poor citizens depend on the government. However, the large majority of citizens must consume its wages. Accordingly, PCE is mostly a function of employment and the size of our paychecks.

The graph below shows the year over year change in the number of employed versus the year over year change in PCE. When averaged over two years, as the darker lines show, the correlation is clear.

Forecasting Employment

Given the strong relationship between the labor market and consumption, we can use labor forecasts to arrive at PCE estimates. This is a two-step process.

First, current data and near-term expectations afford a forecast for when and at what level the labor market may trough. Second, we use prior recession data to calculate the rate at which the labor market may recover from the trough.

Step 1– As of the April 2020 BLS jobs report, the number of people counted as employed fell 13.5% to 131 million. Economists expect it to fall another 6% to 123 million when the May report is released this Friday. We aggressively presume that the May report will mark the low point in jobs and that the number of employed will increase going forward.

Step 2– The graph below helps illustrate the rate in which job growth might return to its prior peak. The orange bars show the depth of employment losses in terms of number and time. We invert the second y-axis for comparative purposes.

The most recent, 2008/09 recession, took 76 months for the number of jobs to go from peak to trough and back to the prior peak.

2008

When considering the last three recessions, the recession of 2008/09 is the best proxy to model future expectations. Not only was it the most recent recession, but it best captures our current mindset and economic standing.

  • The recession was broader based, and affected more industries, citizens, and nations, than the prior recessions of 1990 and 2001.

  • The 2008/09 recession and recovery also required significantly more fiscal and monetary policy to boost economic activity.

  • The amount of federal, corporate, and individual debt was significantly lower in 1990 and 2001 then 2008/09.

  • The natural economic growth rate for 1990 and 2001 was higher than the rate going into the 2008/09 recession.

Our current economy is saddled with more debt than the last recession, and the natural rate of growth has diminished over the previous ten years. As we will share in a future article, the economic growth rate going forward may be half of the already weak pace heading into the current recession.

As has progressively been the case, new debt issuance to fight the current recession will cost us in the future.  Accordingly, we think the 2008 experience is an optimistic proxy to analyze the time and rate at which the labor market might recover. In fact, The 2008/09 scenario may likely be the absolute best-case scenario. The number of job losses is already much more severe than that seen in the financial crisis, and the duration of the recovery seems certain to be longer than that episode.

In the 2008/09 recession, the payrolls number troughed two years after the recession started, falling 6.3% from the prior peak. From that low point, it took over four years for the labor market to fully regain the losses. In total, the labor market required six years to recover the pre-recession peak.  

2020

The number of people the BLS considers employed peaked in February 2020 at 156.463 million. It dipped by a little less than one million in March and then plummeted in April by over 25.4 million to 131.045 million.

Today, the range of estimates for the number of current employees is wide. For our analysis, we assume that the May jobs report will mark the trough. The current estimate for the number of employed is 123 million.  

Putting 2 and 2 Together

To review, our forecast assumes that jobs will trough in May. From June going forward, jobs will recover at the same rate and duration as in the aftermath of 2008. Using this assumption we create the PCE forecast shown below.  

If the historical relationship between labor and PCE holds up, and consumption continues to be the predominant contributor to GDP, we should not expect GDP to regain prior highs until 2025.

Summary

The recovery we laid out above is not a “V” or “U” shape. It resembles the Nike swoosh logo with a sharp decline and a long period of recovery. 

Interestingly, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) agrees with us in that recovery will be much longer than most economists forecast. The CBO’s Nike swoosh forecast below shows the economy will not fully recover for at least a decade.

As mentioned, this analysis assumes a recovery akin to what the economy experienced in 2008. While 2008 was tough, the natural rate of economic growth at the time was more robust and the amount of debt was less.

Since 2008, the ratio of Federal debt to GDP has almost doubled. It now sits close to 120%, well beyond the rate that many economists consider sustainable. Corporate debt to GDP and profits are also growing at unsustainable rates, as shown below.

The simple takeaway is that debt will weigh even more heavily on the current path of growth as the economy recovers.

Economists, when forecasting economic activity, often fail to account for the existing headwinds fully and rarely the new ones. Are they willfully ignorant, or might their employers have a vested interest in portraying a favorable outcome?

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Snapchat Will No Longer Promote Trump’s Account For Inciting ‘Racial Violence And Injustice’

Snapchat Will No Longer Promote Trump’s Account For Inciting ‘Racial Violence And Injustice’

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/03/2020 – 13:12

Snapchat – whose employees were busted spying on users sexting each other – has joined the digital resistance, announcing that they will no longer promoting President Trump’s account on its “Discover” page of curated content, according to Axios – which couldn’t make their disdain for Trump any more transparent if they tried.

“We will not amplify voices who incite racial violence and injustice by giving them free promotion on Discover,” the company said on Wednesday.

The ‘meddling’ move comes after Trump tweeted comments which were interpreted by some to glorify violence during protests over racial injustice.

Meanwhile:

Via Axios:

Why it matters: Snapchat is taking action on the president’s account for comments he made elsewhere. That’s going farther than other big tech firms and signals a commitment to aligning content served to users with core values, rather than making moderation decisions based narrowly on each post made on its own platform.

What they’re saying: “We are not currently promoting the President’s content on Snapchat’s Discover platform,” a spokesperson for Snapchat parent Snap tells Axios. The company made the decision over the weekend.

  • “We will not amplify voices who incite racial violence and injustice by giving them free promotion on Discover,” the spokesperson added.
  • “Racial violence and injustice have no place in our society and we stand together with all who seek peace, love, equality, and justice in America.”

Yes, but: This doesn’t mean Trump’s account is being taken down. It will remain fully accessible to the public, so people who subscribe to his Snapchat account or search for his account will still be able to find his content.

Snapchat says it will no longer promote accounts belonging to people who ‘incite racial violence and injustice, even if its done off of their platform.

In a Sunday memo, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel signaled his virtue, writing “Our Discover content platform is a curated platform, where we decide what we promote. We have spoken time and again about working hard to make a positive impact, and we will walk the talk with the content we promote on Snapchat.”

He added that Snapchat “may continue to allow divisive people to maintain an account on Snapchat, as long as the content that is published on Snapchat is consistent with our community guidelines, but we will not promote that account or content in any way.

Just in time for election season to heat up…

Meanwhile, virtue signaling can be expensive:

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Fed Expands Muni Bailout Facility

Fed Expands Muni Bailout Facility

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/03/2020 – 13:11

While municipalities around the nation are demanding more ‘free money’ helicopter drops from the government, The Fed has just stepped up its efforts to bailout America’s states and cities.

Just as The Fed tapers its buying program in US Treasuries, it appears to be dropping down the risk spectrum dramatically by offering to directly monetize primary issuance from states (and up to two cities from each state).

The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday announced an expansion in the number and type of entities eligible to directly use its Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF).

Under the new terms, all U.S. states will be able to have at least two cities or counties eligible to directly issue notes to the MLF regardless of population. Governors of each state will also be able to designate two issuers in their jurisdictions whose revenues are generally derived from operating government activities (such as public transit, airports, toll facilities, and utilities) to be eligible to directly use the facility.

In addition to the expanded terms outlined above, the MLF continues to be directly open to U.S. states, the District of Columbia, U.S. cities with a population of at least 250,000 residents, U.S. counties with a population of at least 500,000 residents, and certain multistate entities.

The MLF was established under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, with approval of the Treasury Secretary. It will offer up to $500 billion in lending to states and municipalities to help manage cash flow stresses caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Of course, this “loan” from The Fed is not as much fun to spend on frivolous shit as “free money” from the government but it is clear that State finances are bad and getting bad-er…

And now is not the time to cut the pay of the police force, right?

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Pilgrim’s Pride CEO, Three Other Executives Indicted For Price Fixing; Poultry Stocks Plunge

Pilgrim’s Pride CEO, Three Other Executives Indicted For Price Fixing; Poultry Stocks Plunge

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/03/2020 – 13:04

One month after news that attorneys general for 11 Midwestern states urged the Justice Department on Tuesday to pursue a federal probe into potential price-fixing by US meat producers during the coronavirus pandemic, just after noon on Wednesday poultry stocks plunged on news the DOJ filed its first charges in an ongoing criminal antitrust probe accusing the CEO of Pilgrim’s Pride, one of the country’s biggest chicken producers, along with three other industry executives were indicted of participating in a “conspiracy to fix prices and rig bids for broiler chickens.”

The one-count indictment, returned by a federal grand jury in Colorado, alleges current and former senior executives at Pilgrim’s Pride and Claxton Poultry Farms fixed prices and rigged bids from 2012 to 2017.

Colorado-based Pilgrim’s is the nation’s second largest producer, and according to wire reports, its CEO Penn was charged, as was a former Pilgrim’s vice president, Roger Austin. The president of Georgia-based Claxton, Mikell Fries, and a vice president, Scott Brady, were also indicted according to the Journal.

Collusion accusations have shadowed the $65 billion U.S. chicken industry since late 2016, when restaurant companies and other poultry buyers sued major poultry producers, accusing them of illegally coordinating operations to inflate prices. The chicken companies, including Tyson Foods Inc., Pilgrim’s Pride, Sanderson Farms Inc. and Perdue Farms Inc., have denied those allegations.

Similar price-fixing lawsuits since then have been filed against chicken companies by some of the biggest sellers of food, including supermarket giants Walmart Inc., Kroger Co. and Albertsons Cos., as well as restaurant suppliers Sysco Corp. and US Foods Holding Corp., which supply meat to hundreds of thousands of food service customers.

The DOJ’s probe into chicken pricing emerged last year when government attorneys sought to intervene in that ongoing litigation, seeking evidence from plaintiffs’ attorneys and requesting a pause on further evidence-gathering to protect a grand jury’s investigation. The Justice Department later issued subpoenas to Tyson, Pilgrim’s, Sanderson and other poultry producers. The companies said they would cooperate with the government’s requests.

Ironically, in the context of some other prices, poultry price increase have been rather tame: wholesale chicken prices climbed just 11% from mid-2012, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture began calculating national prices for whole chickens, until the end of 2018. Then chicken prices fell about 27% from the start of 2019 through the end of February 2020 as chicken companies ramped up production and expanded plants, anticipating bigger exports after new trade deals were finalized.

The chicken industry is dominated by a handful of companies after decades of consolidation. The five largest companies control 61% of U.S. chicken production, according to Watt Global Media. Tyson, the largest, represents 21%.  Pilgrim’s represents about 17% of the U.S. market, according to Watt, and is estimated to produces about 13 billion pounds of chicken annually. Claxton, based in Georgia, produces about 300 million pounds of chicken a year.

News of the probe sent shares of poultry producers tumbling, with Pilgrim’s Pride plunging to two-month lows….

… with Tyson, Sanderson Farms, and Hormel also falling.

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Wal-Mart Removes Guns, Ammo From Sales Floors To Deter Looters

Wal-Mart Removes Guns, Ammo From Sales Floors To Deter Looters

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/03/2020 – 12:59

Wal-Mart stores in “select locations” have a message for the looters and rioters who terrorized NYC, LA and other cities over the weekend: “no guns here!”

Although we tried to explain to looters why robbing a gun store probably isn’t a good idea, and not just because you might get shot by the proprietor, Wal-Mart is taking no chances, and has decided to remove guns and ammunition from sales displays and sales floors and store them instead in a “secure room” on the property. This comes after the store barred customers from openly carrying guns inside last year, BI reports.

However, we noticed one interesting detail in the story: Wal-Mart locations near where the riots are happening typically don’t sell firearms. In fact, looters even in Texas would need to travel quite a ways to reach a Wal-Mart that as them. This raises another question: Is Wal-Mart simply using this crisis as an excuse to stop selling guns, as corporations around the US burnish their progressive bona fides in solidarity with the movement for racial justice?

The company barred the sale of handguns in Alaska last year – the only state where they were still sold – and has repeatedly promised to stop selling guns, or tighten its restrictions on sales, following mass shootings like the shooting at Marjorie Stoneman Douglas on Valentine’s Day, 2018.

Then again…

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said Wednesday that “our problems as a nation run much deeper than one horrible event…until we as a nation confront and address these realities we will never achieve the best of what we can be.”

As for why looters shouldn’t steal guns if their aim is profit: serial numbers almost guarantee the “hot” merchandise will be seized and the seller arrested.

But if your aim is simply to cause mass chaos in the streets of Philly…

 

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Fed Unexpectedly Deviates From POMO Schedule, Buys Only 70% Of Scheduled Treasurys

Fed Unexpectedly Deviates From POMO Schedule, Buys Only 70% Of Scheduled Treasurys

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/03/2020 – 12:45

For nearly three months, ever since the Fed launched Unlimited QE on March 23, the New York Fed had published a weekly schedule every Friday of how many Treasurys it would purchase the coming week. In fact, just last Friday the Fed announced that this week it would purchase $22.5BN for the full week, on average $4.5BN per day (down from $5BN last week), as per the following daily breakdown.

And while the daily POMO amount has varied day by day, one thing was immutable: whatever the Fed said it would buy in any given POMO block is precisely how much it would accept from the open market.

Until today, because whereas the Fed had previously said it would purchase $3 billion in 20-30 year bonds in Wednesday’s 11am POMO operation (see table above), the Fed today surprised Fed frontrunners and general market watchers, when it announced that out of the $3.755BN in bonds submitted, it accepted just $2.1BN, or 70% of the full amount.

Today’s shrunk POMO, which was the only one on the day, also meant that Wednesday’s total TSY purchases by the Fed were the lowest since the start of the Fed’s emergency operations in late March.

So far there has been no explanation for the unexpected deviation from the schedule, although a possible reason is the collapse in the Submitted to Accepted (or Offer to cover) as a result of the sharp increase in long-end bonds being purchased by the Fed, which after several weeks in the $1.5BN range ($1.450BN on May 21, $1.75BN on May 27), was nearly doubled to $3 billion, and yet there was just not enough supply, as traders balked at selling their highest yielding Treasury paper. Indeed, the offer to cover was 1.788x (and would have been 1.25x had the Fed not shrank the size of the amount of debt accepted), down from 2.13x and 2.64x in the last two 2040-2050 POMOs respectively.

Of course, this would run counter to the latent concern in the market that the Fed isn’t monetizing enough debt across the curve, especially with trillions more in issuance coming on deck to find the massive fiscal stimulus.

In any event, the surprising deviation from the POMO schedule has failed to impact the market so far, with both 10Y and 30Y yields trading near session highs, with the latter last seen at 1.550%.

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It’s Time To Bust Police Unions

In 2018, as a gunman murdered 17 students at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, Sgt. Brian Miller, a sheriff’s deputy with the Broward County Sheriff’s Office, hid behind his police cruiser, waiting 10 minutes to radio for help. For his failure to act, Miller was fired. The official cause was “neglect of duty.” 

Last month, however, Miller was not only reinstated but given full back pay. His 2017 salary was more than $138,000. Miller had challenged his firing, and, as The Miami Herald reports, he had done so with the full backing of his union.

Miller’s reinstatement is notable in that it relates to a high-profile case. But the essential story—an officer performs poorly with fatal results and the union comes to his defense—is all too common. 

This is what police unions do: defend the narrow interests of police at the expense of public safety. They exist to demand that taxpayers pay for dangerous, and even deadly, negligence. And although they are not the only pathology that affects American policing, they are a key internal influence on police culture, a locus of resistance to improvements designed to reduce police violence. To stop bad cops and police abuse, we must tackle police unions. 

In case after case, police unions have defended deadly misdeeds committed by law enforcement. In 2014, for example, New York City police officer Daniel Pantaleo put Eric Garner in a chokehold for selling loose cigarettes. As a result of Pantaleo’s chokehold, Garner died. Garner’s last words were, “I can’t breathe.” 

The incident, caught on video, helped galvanize the Black Lives Matter movement. A grand jury declined to indict Pantaleo, but five years after Garner’s death, he was fired from the force following a police administrative judge’s ruling that the chokehold was, indeed, a violation of department policy.

Pantaleo had violated his police department’s policy in a way that resulted in the death of a man who was committing the most minor of offenses. Yet when he was finally fired, Patrick Lynch, the president of the Police Benevolent Association, Pantaleo’s union, criticized the city for giving in to “anti-police extremists” and warned that such decisions threatened the ability of city police to do their jobs. “We are urging all New York City police officers to proceed with the utmost caution in this new reality, in which they may be deemed ‘reckless’ just for doing their job,” Lynch said

In essence, the police union’s position was: Officers of the law should not be punished for using prohibited techniques in ways that result in the deaths of nonviolent offenders, because to do so would unduly inhibit police work. A deadly violation of department policy is just police “doing their job.” 

Too often, when police wantonly use deadly force, police unions slow or prevent justice. In March, undercover police raided a Louisville, Kentucky, home. They used a battering ram to break down the door in the middle of the night and then fatally shot one of the occupants, an unarmed emergency room tech named Breonna Taylor. Police were investigating two men believed to be selling pot out of another home, but a judge also allowed police to search Taylor’s home, because they believed the men were using it for package delivery. The raid was executed under a no-knock warrant that gives police permission to break into a private residence without identifying themselves. 

Taylor’s death resulted in calls for the officers involved to be fired, but Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer warned that the process would be slow. A significant part of why he expected it to take so long, he said, was the city’s collective bargaining agreement with the police union. Fischer lamented the process, saying he recognizes “the system is not a best practice for our community.” 

The city’s police union, meanwhile, has expressed outrage that a city council member described Taylor’s boyfriend, who fired on police during the raid, as a hero. This is the union’s focus: not demanding justice for a woman killed by police in her home but demanding an apology from a local politician who had the temerity to praise a citizen for defending himself and his girlfriend during a botched police maneuver. The union’s goal, it seems, is to protect the police from public criticism, not to protect the public from bad policing. That’s what police unions do. 

These are anecdotes, but the evidence bears the point out. The Police Union Contract Project, which collects and compares police union contracts across the country, notes that the agreements are generally designed to make it difficult to hold police accountable, in part by giving them privileges that are not afforded to the broader public. For example, the contracts often prevent officers from being questioned quickly after incidents and often give them access to information not accessible to private citizens. Cities are often required to shoulder the financial burdens of officer misconduct, and disciplinary measures are often restricted. Forthcoming research out of the University of Victoria’s economics department finds that the introduction of collective bargaining produces somewhat higher compensation for police officers. It does not correlate with a reduction in total crime—but it does eventually correlate with higher numbers of killings by police, especially of minorities. 

In other words, the research finds about what you’d expect given a public sector workforce with unions set up to protect police officer compensation while limiting discipline and oversight. Police get paid more, yet the public is no safer—and it’s even at greater risk of violence by police. 

For a study in the ways that police unions can foster cultures of corruption and self-protection at the expense of public safety, consider the case of Camden, New Jersey. For decades, the city was among the most violent in the country, plagued by one of America’s highest murder rates and commensurate levels of property crime. In 2012, with the murder rate approaching record highs, The New York Times reported, police acknowledged “that they have all but ceded these streets to crime.” City officials said the police union was to blame. Union contracts made hiring officers prohibitively expensive. The cops on the payroll were being paid too much and they weren’t getting the job done.

So the city made a novel decision: Fire the police. All of them. 

That year, Camden began the process of terminating hundreds of officers and hiring a new force initially made up of less expensive, non-union labor, controlled by the county. 

It was a decision meant to address both budget and crime problems. Naturally, the police union opposed the plan, saying it was “definitely a form of union-busting.” City officials, the union said, were relying on a reform that was “unproven and untested,” putting faith in an agency that did not yet exist. 

By many measures, however, the unproven and untested new police force worked. After disbanding the city police and reorganizing under the county with lower pay, plus adding focus on rebuilding trust with the community (which is among the nation’s poorest), murders declined. The city is still dangerous compared to some others, but there’s been clear progress in terms of reducing crime and improving community relations. Over the weekend, as residents took to the streets to protest disparate and abusive treatment in black communities, Camden police officers marched with the protesters

Eight years after the shakeup, Camden police are once again represented by a union. But the new labor representation signed off on a use-of-force policy that is, somewhat notably, aimed squarely at de-escalation. Police unions have tended to object to such proposals: In 2016, for example, after a think tank put forward a de-escalation policy suggesting that cops think about how the public might react to the use of violence by police, the vice president of the Association for Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs called it “a ridiculous piece of claptrap.” The Fraternal Order of Police and the International Association of Chiefs of Police collaborated on a joint statement opposing the idea. 

Unions aren’t the only problem plaguing American police forces; there are plenty of other reforms worth pursuing, from demilitarization to ending qualified immunity. But they have consistently proven to be a force of organized resistance to calmer, safer, less aggressive policing, in part because of how they perceive the nature of the job. 

That has been true in Minneapolis, where the police killing of George Floyd sparked nationwide protests. Bob Kroll, the president of the city’s police union, wrote a letter to fellow officers describing Floyd, who was not resisting as an officer pressed a knee into his neck for nearly nine minutes, as a “violent criminal.” Kroll has also referred to protesters as part of a “terrorist movement.” He argued that officers were wrongly made to hold back on using less-lethal munitions to suppress riots, and he complained that the officers fired for their involvement in Floyd’s death were “terminated without due process.” 

Like other police union leaders, Kroll has resisted efforts to rein in police aggression. After the city’s mayor banned “warrior training” courses that teach violent confrontation, Kroll decried the ban and struck a deal for city cops to take the course anyway. Janeé Harteau, a former Minneapolis police chief who resigned in 2017 following a police shooting, indicated that Kroll’s remarks are typical of the sort of resistance to reform she encountered while chief, saying they represented “the battle that myself and others have been fighting against.” 

In an interview with STIM radio in April, The Intercept reports that Kroll noted that he has been involved in three shootings, “and not one of them has bothered me.” He lamented the emphasis on training cops to de-escalate tense situations, and cast the job as one for people who have a high threshold for violence: “Certainly getting shot at and shooting people takes a different toll, but if you’re in this job and you’ve seen too much blood and gore and dead people then you’ve signed up for the wrong job.” Beyond the legal and contractual particulars, these are the kinds of attitudes that police unions extol and reinforce. They contribute to a workplace culture that views policing as a job for individuals who remain unbothered by the results of violence.  

Police are public servants granted enormous power over the citizenry. They are tasked with protecting the public and serving their interests. Police unions, in contrast, are tasked with protecting police and serving their interests—even in direct contravention of serving the public. That distinction makes them a barrier to reforms aimed at improving public safety and increasing oversight of how law enforcement behaves. If union-busting is what it takes to reduce the pernicious influence of today’s police unions on policing, then it’s time to bust some police unions.

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It’s Time To Bust Police Unions

In 2018, as a gunman murdered 17 students at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, Sgt. Brian Miller, a sheriff’s deputy with the Broward County Sheriff’s Office, hid behind his police cruiser, waiting 10 minutes to radio for help. For his failure to act, Miller was fired. The official cause was “neglect of duty.” 

Last month, however, Miller was not only reinstated but given full back pay. His 2017 salary was more than $138,000. Miller had challenged his firing, and, as The Miami Herald reports, he had done so with the full backing of his union.

Miller’s reinstatement is notable in that it relates to a high-profile case. But the essential story—an officer performs poorly with fatal results and the union comes to his defense—is all too common. 

This is what police unions do: defend the narrow interests of police at the expense of public safety. They exist to demand that taxpayers pay for dangerous, and even deadly, negligence. And although they are not the only pathology that affects American policing, they are a key internal influence on police culture, a locus of resistance to improvements designed to reduce police violence. To stop bad cops and police abuse, we must tackle police unions. 

In case after case, police unions have defended deadly misdeeds committed by law enforcement. In 2014, for example, New York City police officer Daniel Pantaleo put Eric Garner in a chokehold for selling loose cigarettes. As a result of Pantaleo’s chokehold, Garner died. Garner’s last words were, “I can’t breathe.” 

The incident, caught on video, helped galvanize the Black Lives Matter movement. A grand jury declined to indict Pantaleo, but five years after Garner’s death, he was fired from the force following a police administrative judge’s ruling that the chokehold was, indeed, a violation of department policy.

Pantaleo had violated his police department’s policy in a way that resulted in the death of a man who was committing the most minor of offenses. Yet when he was finally fired, Patrick Lynch, the president of the Police Benevolent Association, Pantaleo’s union, criticized the city for giving in to “anti-police extremists” and warned that such decisions threatened the ability of city police to do their jobs. “We are urging all New York City police officers to proceed with the utmost caution in this new reality, in which they may be deemed ‘reckless’ just for doing their job,” Lynch said

In essence, the police union’s position was: Officers of the law should not be punished for using prohibited techniques in ways that result in the deaths of nonviolent offenders, because to do so would unduly inhibit police work. A deadly violation of department policy is just police “doing their job.” 

Too often, when police wantonly use deadly force, police unions slow or prevent justice. In March, undercover police raided a Louisville, Kentucky, home. They used a battering ram to break down the door in the middle of the night and then fatally shot one of the occupants, an unarmed emergency room tech named Breonna Taylor. Police were investigating two men believed to be selling pot out of another home, but a judge also allowed police to search Taylor’s home, because they believed the men were using it for package delivery. The raid was executed under a no-knock warrant that gives police permission to break into a private residence without identifying themselves. 

Taylor’s death resulted in calls for the officers involved to be fired, but Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer warned that the process would be slow. A significant part of why he expected it to take so long, he said, was the city’s collective bargaining agreement with the police union. Fischer lamented the process, saying he recognizes “the system is not a best practice for our community.” 

The city’s police union, meanwhile, has expressed outrage that a city council member described Taylor’s boyfriend, who fired on police during the raid, as a hero. This is the union’s focus: not demanding justice for a woman killed by police in her home but demanding an apology from a local politician who had the temerity to praise a citizen for defending himself and his girlfriend during a botched police maneuver. The union’s goal, it seems, is to protect the police from public criticism, not to protect the public from bad policing. That’s what police unions do. 

These are anecdotes, but the evidence bears the point out. The Police Union Contract Project, which collects and compares police union contracts across the country, notes that the agreements are generally designed to make it difficult to hold police accountable, in part by giving them privileges that are not afforded to the broader public. For example, the contracts often prevent officers from being questioned quickly after incidents and often give them access to information not accessible to private citizens. Cities are often required to shoulder the financial burdens of officer misconduct, and disciplinary measures are often restricted. Forthcoming research out of the University of Victoria’s economics department finds that the introduction of collective bargaining produces somewhat higher compensation for police officers. It does not correlate with a reduction in total crime—but it does eventually correlate with higher numbers of killings by police, especially of minorities. 

In other words, the research finds about what you’d expect given a public sector workforce with unions set up to protect police officer compensation while limiting discipline and oversight. Police get paid more, yet the public is no safer—and it’s even at greater risk of violence by police. 

For a study in the ways that police unions can foster cultures of corruption and self-protection at the expense of public safety, consider the case of Camden, New Jersey. For decades, the city was among the most violent in the country, plagued by one of America’s highest murder rates and commensurate levels of property crime. In 2012, with the murder rate approaching record highs, The New York Times reported, police acknowledged “that they have all but ceded these streets to crime.” City officials said the police union was to blame. Union contracts made hiring officers prohibitively expensive. The cops on the payroll were being paid too much and they weren’t getting the job done.

So the city made a novel decision: Fire the police. All of them. 

That year, Camden began the process of terminating hundreds of officers and hiring a new force initially made up of less expensive, non-union labor, controlled by the county. 

It was a decision meant to address both budget and crime problems. Naturally, the police union opposed the plan, saying it was “definitely a form of union-busting.” City officials, the union said, were relying on a reform that was “unproven and untested,” putting faith in an agency that did not yet exist. 

By many measures, however, the unproven and untested new police force worked. After disbanding the city police and reorganizing under the county with lower pay, plus adding focus on rebuilding trust with the community (which is among the nation’s poorest), murders declined. The city is still dangerous compared to some others, but there’s been clear progress in terms of reducing crime and improving community relations. Over the weekend, as residents took to the streets to protest disparate and abusive treatment in black communities, Camden police officers marched with the protesters

Eight years after the shakeup, Camden police are once again represented by a union. But the new labor representation signed off on a use-of-force policy that is, somewhat notably, aimed squarely at de-escalation. Police unions have tended to object to such proposals: In 2016, for example, after a think tank put forward a de-escalation policy suggesting that cops think about how the public might react to the use of violence by police, the vice president of the Association for Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs called it “a ridiculous piece of claptrap.” The Fraternal Order of Police and the International Association of Chiefs of Police collaborated on a joint statement opposing the idea. 

Unions aren’t the only problem plaguing American police forces; there are plenty of other reforms worth pursuing, from demilitarization to ending qualified immunity. But they have consistently proven to be a force of organized resistance to calmer, safer, less aggressive policing, in part because of how they perceive the nature of the job. 

That has been true in Minneapolis, where the police killing of George Floyd sparked nationwide protests. Bob Kroll, the president of the city’s police union, wrote a letter to fellow officers describing Floyd, who was not resisting as an officer pressed a knee into his neck for nearly nine minutes, as a “violent criminal.” Kroll has also referred to protesters as part of a “terrorist movement.” He argued that officers were wrongly made to hold back on using less-lethal munitions to suppress riots, and he complained that the officers fired for their involvement in Floyd’s death were “terminated without due process.” 

Like other police union leaders, Kroll has resisted efforts to rein in police aggression. After the city’s mayor banned “warrior training” courses that teach violent confrontation, Kroll decried the ban and struck a deal for city cops to take the course anyway. Janeé Harteau, a former Minneapolis police chief who resigned in 2017 following a police shooting, indicated that Kroll’s remarks are typical of the sort of resistance to reform she encountered while chief, saying they represented “the battle that myself and others have been fighting against.” 

In an interview with STIM radio in April, The Intercept reports that Kroll noted that he has been involved in three shootings, “and not one of them has bothered me.” He lamented the emphasis on training cops to de-escalate tense situations, and cast the job as one for people who have a high threshold for violence: “Certainly getting shot at and shooting people takes a different toll, but if you’re in this job and you’ve seen too much blood and gore and dead people then you’ve signed up for the wrong job.” Beyond the legal and contractual particulars, these are the kinds of attitudes that police unions extol and reinforce. They contribute to a workplace culture that views policing as a job for individuals who remain unbothered by the results of violence.  

Police are public servants granted enormous power over the citizenry. They are tasked with protecting the public and serving their interests. Police unions, in contrast, are tasked with protecting police and serving their interests—even in direct contravention of serving the public. That distinction makes them a barrier to reforms aimed at improving public safety and increasing oversight of how law enforcement behaves. If union-busting is what it takes to reduce the pernicious influence of today’s police unions on policing, then it’s time to bust some police unions.

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Stocks Stumble As WHO Sees “No Evidence” Of Any Drug Reducing Mortality

Stocks Stumble As WHO Sees “No Evidence” Of Any Drug Reducing Mortality

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/03/2020 – 12:20

Having soared 1000s of points on the back of vaccine hopes, WHO’s just puked in the punchbowl, dismissing any hopes of a vaccine or treatment by stating that there is “no evidence that any drug is reducing mortality of patients that have COVID-19.”

The market – for now – has barely reacted…

Can the Fed print some more vaccine?

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