“Eat A Bag Of Dicks”: De Blasio’s COVID-19-Lockdown Snitch-Line Flooded With Penis Pics And Memes
New Yorkers didn’t seem to take too kindly to Mayor Bill de Blasio asking them to snitch on each other.
Back on April 18, the mayor put out this video on social media commending New Yorkers, before asking them to snitch on each other if they see other New Yorkers violating social distancing rules.
In what we’d guess was more of a bi-partisan effort than some Democrats would like to admit, the city seems to have told de Blasio exactly what they think of his program, texting the NYC snitch-line photos of penises, middle fingers and memes, instead of using it to snitch on their fellow citygoer.
In addition, people have texted the snitch-line with photos of the mayor dropping the Staten Island groundhog and news coverage of him going to the gym, according to the NY Post.
“We will fight this tyrannical overreach!” one person texted to the line. Another posted a photo of Hitler and said:
“TO THOSE TURNING IN YOUR NEIGHBORS AND LOCAL BUSINESSES — YOU DID THE REICH THING.”
“Start flooding their reporting text numbers with this pics!” the person continued.
One person sent a bowl of penis-shaped candies with the banner “Eat A Bag of D*cks”. A source at the NYPD says that actual dick pics have also been texted to the line.
Another person called in and said that de Blasio was seen having oral sex with someone “in an alleyway behind a 7-11”.
“He looked at me…and coofed in my direction,” the anonymous tipster said.
The service had to be shut down temporarily as a result of the chaos.
SouthFront offers a scientific-based survey providing an in-depth look at the real death toll statistics and the spread of SARS-COV-2.
1. The research issued by the Bonn University Hospital
The research issued by the Bonn University Hospital and made by the group of scientists including Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck (Institute of Virology), Prof. Dr. Gunther Hartmann (Institute for Clinical Chemistry and Clinical Pharmacology, Spokesman for the Cluster of Excellence ImmunoSensation2), Prof. Dr. Martin Exner (Institute for Hygiene and Public Health), Prof. Dr. Matthias Schmid (Institute for Medical Biometry, Computer Science and Epidemiology).
In the framework of the research, all residents of Germany’s Gangelt were tested on the existence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and antibodies to SARS-CoV-2.
Gangelt is one of the most COVID-19-affected German municipalities. It is believed that the outbreak was caused by the carnival held on February 15, 2020. After the event, several people tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.
Preliminary result: the existing immunity was determined at about 14% (IgG against SARS-CoV2, method specificity>, 99%). About 2% of people had current SARS-CoV-2 infection detected by the method of polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The overal infection rate (the presence of a current infection or antibody in the body) was about 15%. The mortality (mortality rate), based on the total number of infected people in the Gangelt community, is approximately 0.37% based on the preliminary data of this study. The mortality rate based on the total population in the Gangelt is currently 0.06%.
2. A new Epidemiological bulletin from German Robert Koch Institute
“in general, it is true that not all infected people have symptoms, not all who has symptoms go to a doctor’s office, not all who go to the doctor are tested and not all who test positive are recorded in a survey system. In addition, a certain amount of time passes between all these individual steps, so that no data collection system, however good, can make a statement about the current infection process without additional assumptions and calculations.”
Meanwhile, April 18 Daily Situation Report of the Robert Koch Institute shows that 86% of deaths, but only 18% of all cases, occurred in persons aged 70 years or older. The median age was 82 years. Pneumonia was reported in 2,764 cases (3%). COVID-19 related outbreaks continue to be reported in nursing homes and hospitals. In some of these outbreaks, the number of deaths is relatively high. The current estimate is R= 0.8 (95% confidence interval: 0.7-1.0).
3. On 13 April, the German National Academy of Sciences, Leopoldina, published its third ad hoc statement on the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany (the group of 26 Prof. Doctors)
The statement, which supplements its two predecessors, describes strategies for a stepwise lifting or modification of measures against the pandemic, taking into account psychological, social, legal, pedagogic and economic aspects. The document recommends in particular the re-opening of classroom primary and lower-level secondary education as soon as feasible, giving priority to the former, with observation of hygiene and physical distancing measures.
Click to see the full-size image
Click to see the full-size image
The National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina takes a stand with psychological, social, the legal, educational and economic aspects of the pandemic, following key recommendations:
Optimizing the basis for decision-making: The data collection, which has so far been largely symptom-based, leads to a distorted perception of the infection process. It is therefore important to collect the infection and substantially improve the immunity status of the population, in particular through representative and regional survey of infection and immunity status.
Enable a differentiated assessment of the risks both for social and individual dealings with the corona pandemic, contextual classification of the available data is important. Data to serious illnesses and deaths must be compared to those of other illnesses and related to the expected risk of death in individual age groups. A realistic one. Presentation of the individual risk must be clearly illustrated. This also applies to systemic risks such as overloading the health system and negative consequences for the economy and society.
To cushion psychological and social impacts: measures taken for implementation intrinsic motivation based on self-protection and solidarity is more important than the threats of sanctions. Providing a realistic schedule and a clear package of measures for gradual normalization increases the controllability and predictability for everyone. This helps to minimize negative psychological the physical andeffects of the current stress. Firs of all, aid and support should be provided for high-risk groups, such as children, who are particularly affected by the consequences of current restrictions in difficult family situations or people who are exposed to domestic violence must be provided become.
There are more another recommendations in the third ad hoc statement of the German National Academy of Sciences that now are being implemented by German leadership.
4. New research from the United States
Group of authors from Stanford University, Stanford University School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Health Education is Power, Inc., The Compliance Resource Group, Inc., Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University School of Medicine, Bogan Associates, 8 ARL BioPharma, Inc., Sports Medicine Research and Testing Laboratory, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County and made some conclusions.
The data received and conclusions of the US team are well corresponding with the research of German Bonn University Hospital taking into account that the German research came out on April 9, and the American one on April 14, with the reasonable assumption that the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the German city of Gangelt began at least two week earlier (February 15, 2020) than in the American Santa Clara.
The US researchers estimated that under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions. The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
5. More data from the United States
Between March 22 and April 4, 2020, a total of 215 pregnant women delivered infants at the New York–Presbyterian Allen Hospital and Columbia University Irving Medical Center. All the women were screened on admission for symptoms of Covid-19. Four women (1.9%) had fever or other symptoms of Covid-19 on admission, and all 4 women tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (Figure 1). Of the 211 women without symptoms, all were afebrile on admission. Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from 210 of the 211 women (99.5%) who did not have symptoms of Covid-19; of these women, 29 (13.7%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Thus, 29 of the 33 patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at admission (87.9%) had no symptoms of Covid-19 at presentation.
Our use of universal SARS-CoV-2 testing in all pregnant patients presenting for delivery revealed that at this point in the pandemic in New York City, most of the patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at delivery were asymptomatic, and more than one of eight asymptomatic patients who were admitted to the labor and delivery unit were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Although this prevalence has limited generalizability to geographic regions with lower rates of infection, it underscores the risk of Covid-19 among asymptomatic obstetrical patients. Moreover, the true prevalence of infection may be underreported because of false negative results of tests to detect SARS-CoV-2.
6. Hypothesis and justification from a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at theMilan State University, Italy
The real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at theMilan State University.
This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus.
The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.
If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.
7. SARS-CoV-2 mortality in Italy
As for now, it is a well-known publicly recognized fact that Italy labels anyone who died with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, regardless of the real causes of death, as the victim of the pandemic. At the same time, the objective fact is the increase of the overall mortality in Italy. According to Istat (Istituto nazionale di statistica), there is a general increase in mortality from all causes ⩾20% from March 1 to April 4, 2020 compared with the average for the same period in 2015-2019. Bergamo is at the top in the growth of mortality among municipalities, + 382.8% of deaths.
However, the mortality grew not only and not so much from the causes associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection.
A few examples:
Albino town: from February 23 to March 27, 2019 – 24 people died; from February 23 to March 27, 2020 – 145 people (SARS-CoV-2 causes – 30 dead).
Skandzoroshyate town: from January to March 2019 – 45 deaths; from January to March 2020 – 135 (SARS-CoV-2 – 20 dead).
San Pellegrino Terme town: March 2019 – 2 deaths, March 2020 – 45 (SARS-CoV-2 – 11 dead).
These numbers could be explained by the lack of SARS-CoV-2 tests in the specified period.
At the same time, the mortality from other diseases increased significantly in the comparative period of April 1-4, 2020 compared to April 1-4, 2019. The lack of transparence of the Italian system also should be noted. For example, on April 17, Istat said that at that moment it was impossible to draw any conclusions about the increase of the mortality in Italy in general (as well as in regions and provinces) from the data obtained by Istat for the first four months of 2020 and compare it with the same period in 2019. These graphs and tables show statistics:
Click to see the full-size image
8. SARS-CoV-2 mortality in Spain
Spanish Minister of Health Salvador Illa stated that every dead person, that tested positively to SARS-CoV-2, is considered as a SARS-CoV-2 death.
The mathematical model employed by the University of Carlos III in Madrid (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, UC3M) demonstrates that in the last decade in Spain, an average of 1,150 people die from all causes every day in March. According to the records of acts of civil status, from March 16 (the day quarantine began), the number of daily deaths from all causes began to increase, sometimes reaching 1,400 per day. From March 17 to March 30, 21,243 deaths were recorded in Spain. This is 5,398 more than the prediction based on the extrapolation of data from previous years. The forecasted number for the same period is 15,844 – 34.1% less. At the same time, the total number of deaths from whom SARS-CoV-2 during the period from March 17 to March 30, 2020 was 7,591 people. This is a consequence of the general recognition of SARS-CoV-2 as the cause of deaths regardless of the actual situation. In any case, there is no exponential growth of the overall mortality in Spain or Italy.
In this survey, we demonstrated the researches and approaches of about 100 eminent scientists from around the world. In general, they agree that the current statistical data does not reflect the actual state of affairs, and the publicly distributed media estimates of the mortality rate are at least incorrect, and do not correspond to the actual picture.
The actual number of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection or people that already passed through COVID-19 early-stage or without symptoms is several dozen times higher than the public numbers show.
This is primarily due to the approaches and scope of testing. The public numbers have little to do with science. This is, to a greater extent, either media or politically motivated data. You should also consider the factor of a special picture of the course of the disease, which affects medical statistics (RKI Epidemiological bulletins).
Accordingly, the real mortality rate from SARS-CoV-2 is 25-60 times less than the figures presented to us by MSM and a number of governments.
The number of people with SARS-CoV-2 virus, but without the COVID-19 disease or with a mild form of the disease, according to various estimates, ranges from 85% to 95%. This group, as a rule, does not fall into official statistics, as it is not tested, not hospitalized, and does not seek medical help.
The negative consequences for life and health of people from ill-conceived social measures can at times surpass the threat posed by SARS-CoV-2. There has been a significant increase in the mortality from diseases unrelated to SARS-CoV-2 already.
Countries, whose leadership works closely with scientists, consistently and quickly responds to changes in the situation and the emergence of new data, will receive a huge advantage in the post-COVID-19 world.
The current actions of politicians in a number of countries are difficult to explain with anything other than incompetence or deliberate actions to achieve their personal/clan political ambitions or promote interests of external actors.
China State TV Host: COVID-19 Came From Lab Leak… In United States
A TV presenter for Chinese state television claims that COVID-19 came from the United States – either escaping from a US lab, or having been brought into China during the Military World Games in Wuhan last October, reports the UK’s Metro.
The anchor, who goes by “Ms V” on the CGTN show “China View,” rattled off several theories which she said shows “it is clear that the virus in China was transmitted from abroad,” (and not from the level 4 biolab in the same town which was screwing around with bat coronavirus, and where “patient zero” reportedly disappeared after falling ill).
Ms V told the camera: ‘The outbreak may be earlier than expected. In September 2019, some Japanese were infected with the new coronavirus after returning from Hawaii, though they had not visited China before.
‘This happened two months before the beginning of the outbreak in China. Shortly after, the CDC shut down the facilities – after claiming that the Fort Detrick Biological Weapons Laboratory had failed to fully prevent the loss of pathogens.
‘Now, all the data related to this lab has disappeared on the internet. The virologist reported he had carefully researched the cases, as well as his Japanese colleague, and they got the same conclusion.
‘It is expected that the new coronavirus has started outbreaks in the United States for a while, and its symptoms were like symptoms of other diseases, so it was easy to hide the truth.’ –Metro
A video of the Arabic-speaking host spreading the rumors during an Arabic-language broadcast has received millions of views, and comes as Washington and Beijing have begun to lock horns over the origins of the virus. According to a Fox News report, the virus escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology – a theory we posited in January, which was called a ‘conspiracy theory’ by mainstream media.
Shortly before the Fox News report, the Washington Post reported that US State Department cables warned of safety issues at the Wuhan BSL-4 biolab.
Metro notes that the Fort Detrick – home to the Department of Defense’s top biological defense research laboratory known as USAMRIID – was partially closed in July by the CDC due to problems with the disposal of dangerous materials, and was fully reopened in April.
Ms V then cited a Japanese broadcast in which a presenter claimed that the pandemic may have originated after the US participated in the Military Olympic Games in Wuhan which was attended by 109 countries.
Chinese government spokesperson Zhao Lijian tweeted this story in March suggesting ‘it might be the US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan,’ a claim that the Pentagon called ‘false and absurd.’
Half in jest a few years ago, in an article, I suggested that taxation be stopped altogether. With so many people no longer concerned about deficit spending the idea now seems more viable. With so many people thinking that deficit government spending helps drive the economy at some point our leaders and those across the globe might want to give us taxpayers a break. Why not stop taxation entirely?
Just End It! Such a policy would go a long way to diminish the divide polarizing our nation.
I do not know anyone who likes to pay taxes or go through hours and hours of record-keeping and filling out forms in order to comply with our complex tax system. According to the Tax Foundation,Americans spent more than 8.9 billion hours complying with IRS tax filing requirements in 2016. All in all, tax compliance cost the U.S. economy $409 billion during those 12 months. As you know, things have not gotten any easier since that time. With the soaring deficits flowing out of Washington and policies that show no respect for the money hard-working Americans pay into the system lets do this!
Over the years Washington and governments in many countries have shown little in the way of financial restraint. If deficits don’t matter it seems logical that spreading the wealth around by something other than policies focused on redistribution through such a complicated system has merit. Both economists and politicians have considered many over the top solutions to resolve the problem of slow economic growth in a global economy mired in debt. In the past, cutting taxes has been a favorite method to spur consumer spending and pump up growth. The suggestion of placing taxation in the dustbin of history is merely an extension of this idea.
No Taxation Means More Money For Everyone!
If indeed cutting the ties binding us to responsible budgets is the solution to our economic woes and holds the key to prosperity being timid may not have served us well. Forget all the previously consideredoutlandish ideas, such as a war on cash, forgiving debt through a debt jubilee, giving everyone a guaranteed income, and even injecting money into the economic system by dropping it from a helicopter. Ending taxation in many ways can be seen as having the same effect of economic stimulation.
This is only one in a series of easy plans to jump-start the economy, the next part when I get around to writing it will be titled, “Just Print More Money.” Both plans constitute a better alternative than going to war to kill off excess labor while ramping up production of self-exploding equipment or building bridges to nowhere. If history is any indication, wealth and jobs flow into any country that has low tax rates so why not take it to the next level. While you could demand that I parade a slew of complex figures and calculations before you proving all this will work, I simply ask you to please show me the same kind of trust we give to those leading us from Washington.
My proposal could be passed in a bipartisan way and should make everyone happy. It should please both Trump voters who claim enough is enough and want to pay way less in taxes as well as those on the far left who can’t get enough free goodies. By shattering the link between taxation and spending we can be far more generous. So I say, eat your heart out Paul Krugman, and you too Ben Bernanke. With all the time both of you have spent pondering the economy in the ivory halls of academia, you have come close but it isI who have proposed the next step in our financial evolution. Ending all taxation of any kind will not render the laws of economics moot or move us much further into the false state of modern voodoo economics than we have already traveled and it is guaranteed to work until it no longer does.
More crude chaos overnight (with AsiaPac oil ETFs trading at “crazy premiums” and Asian oil futures tumbling) has been over-ruled this morning as long-squeezes have morphed into a short-squeeze after Trump ordered the US Navy to “shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea”, sending June WTI soaring 40% to $16 before fading modestly into the official inventory data from DOE.
“There’s no way you can predict [it] right now,” Michael Cuggino, portfolio manager at Pacific Heights Asset Management LLC, said on Bloomberg TV.
“It’s virtually impossible until we have more visibility with respect to how to world comes out of the coronavirus on the other side.”
Still, we suspect inventories will be a catalyst for the next leg in these chaotic paper oil markets…
API
Crude +13.226mm (+13.8mm exp)
Cushing +4.913mm (+14mm exp)
Gasoline +3.435mm (+4.4mm exp)
Distillates +7.369mm (+3.9mm exp)
DOE
Crude +15.022mm (+13.8mm exp)
Cushing +4.776mm (+14mm exp)
Gasoline +1.017mm (+4.4mm exp)
Distillates +7.8765mm (+3.9mm exp)
This is the 13th weekly rise in crude inventories…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude stocks soared to their highest since May 2017 (this is the highest level of crude inventory for this time of year ever aside from 2017)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bloomberg Intelligence energy analyst Fernando Valle warns that the roll of WTI contracts showed that all remaining storage at Cushing is booked, even if not yet full… but demand has collapsed…
Source: Bloomberg
Refineries slowed to 67% of utilization last in the previous week, the lowest since 2008.
As Bloomberg Intelligence senior energy analyst Vince Piazza notes, “U.S. crude storage capacity has about three months to go before it’s filled, as demand falls faster than production is declining.”
Following a collapse in US oil rig counts, US oil production is fading back to its lowest since June 2019…
Source: Bloomberg
The possibility of negative prices has sent a shockwave through the ETF industry. Should the price of the futures they hold fall below zero, ETFs could go “lights out”, Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura Securities, warned on Tuesday, but June WTI lifted very modestly after the inventory print.
Pierre Andurand, a hedge fund manager who has successfully bet on lower oil prices in recent months, warned that oil ETF investors faced the possibility of being “completely wiped out.”
“Anything that invests in the front two months WTI is a recipe for disaster,” he told Bloomberg TV.
In case you wondered who was/is buying all this oil… it’s easy – Millennial bagholders…
“It is possible that the price of June 2020 contracts will drop to zero or a negative value,” Samsung Asset Management said in its filing. “In the worst-case scenario, the Net Asset Value of the Sub-Fund may drop to zero and investors may suffer a total loss of their investments in the Sub-Fund.
The Chinese government has released video it says was shot inside the Wuhan Institute of Virology, in an attempt to counter claims, investigations, and evidence that the coronavirus leaked from the bio-lab.
According to reports, the US government is now ‘near certain’ that the lab was the origin of the virus, and several lawsuits have already been filed stating exactly this.
The video, released by Chinese state media, is said to be from February, and shows scientists in full personal protective equipment working within the lab. An emphasis is placed on the safety measures in place at the lab.
Watch:
In the video, scientist Zhang Huajun demonstrates how workers put on hazmat suits and pass thorough five hermetically sealed chambers before entering the main part of the facility.
Zhang also claims that the lab was designed to prevent leaks by allowing air to only flow inside, and not back out again.
This past weekend, the lab’s deputy director claimed that “There’s no way this virus came from us.”
“They have no evidence or knowledge. This is entirely based on speculation,”Yuan Zhiming told state media, adding that “Part of the purpose is to confuse people, to interfere with our entire epidemic activities or our scientific activities.”
Meanwhile, the World Health Organisation is once again in lockstep with the Chinese denials, insisting that the virus “is not manipulated or constructed in a lab,” and repeating the Chinese government’s talking point that “The Wuhan Institute of Virology has dismissed rumors both that it synthesized the virus or allowed it to escape.”
The new lab video is thought to be a propaganda effort to counter photographs that previously appeared showing broken freezer seals inside the lab where coronavirus samples were being stored:
The Coronavirus has upended many people’s plans. Jobs have been lost, businesses destroyed, internships and other opportunities postponed or canceled, and so on. In light of the fact that many people’s plans have suddenly be upended, and people who were contemplating law school in the future may prefer to start this Fall, my law school (Antonin Scalia Law School at George Mason University) has decided to extend the application deadline until May 31. If a prospective student applies by then, the admissions office will accept results from the May LSAT-FLEX. You can also apply with GRE scores.
Are other law schools being flexible about their application deadline? If so, feel free to inform readers in the comments section.
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The Coronavirus has upended many people’s plans. Jobs have been lost, businesses destroyed, internships and other opportunities postponed or canceled, and so on. In light of the fact that many people’s plans have suddenly be upended, and people who were contemplating law school in the future may prefer to start this Fall, my law school (Antonin Scalia Law School at George Mason University) has decided to extend the application deadline until May 31. If a prospective student applies by then, the admissions office will accept results from the May LSAT-FLEX. You can also apply with GRE scores.
Are other law schools being flexible about their application deadline? If so, feel free to inform readers in the comments section.
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Some 41 percent of Democratic voters are bothered by the fact that their party’s nominee—former Vice President Joe Biden—is an elderly white male, according to a recent poll by the Pew Research Center.
Responses varied wildly across racial lines, but not in the way many people might expect. White respondents split evenly on the question: Half were bothered by Biden’s whiteness and half were not. Black and Hispanic respondents, on the other hand, largely didn’t care. Just 28 percent of the former and 30 percent of the latter indicated that Biden’s age and ethnicity mattered to them.
The younger, more liberal, more highly educated, and whiter the respondent, the more likely they were to care about the candidate’s identity. (Results were essentially indistinguishable along gender lines.)
These results demonstrate a point that comes up frequently in my book, Panic Attack: Young Radicals in the Age of Trump. The progressive activist fixation on identity—race, gender, etc.—is not broadly popular, even among left-of-center Americans. The demonstrations of performative wokeness that are part and parcel of life on college campuses seem alien (and alienating) to just about everyone else. When progressives push the Democratic Party to be more consciously identitarian, they arguably make it more unpopular among a swath of gettable voters who are turned off by these kinds of appeals. But, most importantly, the voters who are expected to be enthused by the appeals to racial identity—people of color—don’t care nearly as much as the undergrads at Middlebury, Oberlin, and Reed College.
This poll brings to mind a previous survey result from the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, which similarly found that a majority of minority respondents expected to take offense at various microaggressions weren’t actually bothered by them.
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New data contradict current wisdom about COVID-19 on the West Coast. Santa Clara County, in California’s Bay Area, might be where the first known COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. took place.
This regrettable distinction formerly belonged to Kirkland, Washington, where someone died of the coronavirus on February 29. But autopsies have now revealed that COVID-19 was responsible for the February 6 and 17 deaths of two people in Santa Clara County. Another person in Santa Clara died of COVID-19 on March 6.
“These three individuals died at home during a time when very limited testing was available,” said the county’s statement, noting that at the time, “testing criteria set by the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] at the time restricted testing to only individuals with a known travel history and who sought medical care for specific symptoms.”
“As the Medical Examiner-Coroner continues to carefully investigate deaths throughout the county, we anticipate additional deaths from COVID-19 will be identified,” it added.
Santa Clara County Executive Jeff Smith suggested that the news may mean COVID-19 was spreading around parts of the U.S. for “a lot longer than we first believed.” Contradicting current wisdom on the matter, Smith said the virus most likely hit some U.S. communities “back in December.”
Recent studies from Santa Clara and Los Angeles counties suggest there may have been more COVID-19 cases in California than was previously known. As Jacob Sullum noted here Monday, that would actually be a somewhat positive thing, making the death rate from COVID-19 much smaller than we had previously thought.
“In contrast with the current crude case fatality rate of about 4.5 percent,” writes Sullum, “the study suggests that 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of people infected by the virus will die, which would make COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu.”
Good news! Right?
Well, maybe. Some scientists are now calling those studies into question.
Yesterday, Will Fithian, a statistics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, laid out the issues in a long Twitter thread (start here).
“Before journalists publicize any more results from this group, they should know that the confidence intervals reported in both studies have no known statistical provenance as of now,” Fithian tweeted. “The calculations are not questionable; they are either wrong or unknown.”
More on potential problems with the Los Angeles and Santa Clara COVID-19 studies here.
Fithian has been in touch with the authors, and he notes that they have “demographic information they have not yet shared, so it’s conceivable a more refined analysis” will come. But for now, it’s best to be a bit skeptical about anything related to this study. Apparently, the authors have a history of making questionable assumptions in their research:
In a WSJ op-ed last month, these same two guys used "fraction of NBA players who tested positive for COVID by March 19" as an estimate for "fraction of the COVID-positive population in cities with NBA teams." Craziest thing I've ever read.https://t.co/uhcVLUxngXpic.twitter.com/Ne1R4JL3cP
The Trump administration said on Tuesday that an executive order temporarily closing all U.S. borders would be signed on Wednesday, though officials could still not offer details about what that would look like.
The move, as we noted yesterday, makes no sense outside pursuing the president’s pre-coronavirus policy agenda and making his base feel all warm and fuzzy.
There’s “no evidence we’ve seen that immigrants are associated with the spread of Covid-19 more than anyone else,” the Wall Street Journal editorial board weighed in with a Tuesday evening op-ed. And “Trump’s economic case is even weaker.”
QUICK HITS
Trump’s latest attempt to distract people from how badly his administration is handling the COVID-19 outbreak may get us into another Middle Eastern conflict (playing the hits never sounded so bad…):
I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.
The U.S. House of Representatives will vote today on whether to allow members to vote remotely. Meanwhile in the Senate, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has rejected a proposal (from Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul) to do the same.
Typical of reporting on the groups organizing anti-lockdown protests, The New York Timesgets a bit breathless over the fact that these conservative groups are—gasp—using “their social media accounts and text and email lists to spread the word about the protests.”
