The Other US-China ‘War’: Plunge Protectors Versus National Team

The Other US-China ‘War’: Plunge Protectors Versus National Team

As tensions increase between China and US over trade, democracy/Hong Kong, Taiwan, Huawei, and diplomatic travel, there is another ‘struggle’ going on that is all about appearance.

Bloomberg opines that an unusual sense of tranquility has descended on China’s financial markets, especially notable amid the chaos of dueling headline-algos that a deal is close (or not).

Notably, Bloomberg raises the specter of China’s “National Team” – as state-backed funds are called – which is sometimes suspected of buying shares to ensure market stability around major events like legislative meetings or big anniversaries. 

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see if the government asked banks or funds to not react to the news,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners, who added that he does not see direct intervention as in the past.

“The government could be a quiet hand of the market in China.”

However, one thing Bloomberg does not dare to mention is the US Plunge Protection Team appears to be have been just as active

Since the “Phase One Complete” headlines, China has slid notably while US markets have risen almost incessantly (and far too linearly)…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, while Bloomberg notes the relative calm of China’s markets, it has relatively exploded relatiove to the collapse in volatility in US markets…

Source: Bloomberg

We give the last word to Hao Hong, chief strategist at Bocom International:

“Does this lack of volatility feel normal? No!”

But do not for one second believe this is China only, given the charts above, it’s clear that someone or something is desperate to keep US markets aloft…

Source: Bloomberg

And don’t forget…

And so it is that both China and US are desperate to maintain the appearance of ‘strength’ – as indicated by their respective stock markets – as trade deal chatter reaches the vinegar strokes.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 12/05/2019 – 14:55

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Rickards: Time To Reduce Exposure To The Stock Market

Rickards: Time To Reduce Exposure To The Stock Market

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

The major stock market indices will move sideways through the remainder of the month (and year) to end the year about where they are now. That said, if markets move outside a narrow range, there is more downside potential than upside.

This is a good time to lighten up on equity exposure and reallocate to bonds, cash and gold.

Stock markets haven’t gained much over the past two years. That may come as a shock to investors who feel like they’ve been on a roller coaster ride since early 2018. Yet, the fact is that the Dow Jones Industrial Index was 26,616 on January 26, 2018 and about 27,850 as of today.

That’s about a 1,200-point gain, or 600 points a year. 600 points is one good day for the market. Is that the best it can do over two years? Even adding an average 2% annual dividend yield, the annualized return is about 3%. That’s far less than an investor could have made in super-safe U.S. Treasury bonds.

If you’re a day trader, you might have made money buying dips and selling near the top in rallies. More likely, non-professional traders lost money chasing the rallies and bailing out during the drawdowns. If you’re the typical buy-and-hold investor watching your 401(k) statements, you’ve gone almost nowhere despite the fireworks. You’re right back where you started.

The question is, why?

The drivers of the sideways movement in stocks are slow economic growth and weak earnings growth in individual companies.The drivers of the short-term volatility along the way are good news/bad news on trade wars, and utter confusion at the Fed.

The bottom line is stocks are moving sideways on a sea of uncertainty. Let’s back up a minute to see how we got here…

After the Trump tax cuts passed in late 2017, the White House was predicting growth would return to the long-term trend (post-1980) of 3.2% or higher. That hasn’t happened.

The second quarter of 2018 did show annualized growth of 3.5%, but that was a one-time effect from employee bonuses and consumer confidence due to higher stock prices resulting from the Trump tax cuts.

That euphoria quickly faded.

Growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 was only 1.1%. For all of 2018, U.S. GDP grew by 2.9%, higher than the average growth since the end of the last recession in June 2009, but far less than the White House projected.

Since then growth has slowed even more as the effect of the 2017 tax cuts has faded. On an annualized based, the first quarter of 2019 showed 3.1% growth, the second quarter was 2.0% and original readings of third-quarter growth came in at 1.9%. It was upgraded to 2.1%, but that’s nothing to write home about.

This puts annualized growth year-to-date at 2.4%, almost exactly where it has been for the past ten years. In short, the Trump growth miracle is a mirage. We’re in the same 2.3% rut we’ve been in since 2009.

The cumulative impact of trade wars, currency wars and geopolitical tension is also reflected in a slowdown in global growth. The following summary comes from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook press conference on October 15, 2019 as presented by Gita Gopinath, Director of the IMF’s Research Department:

As for the global economy, the global economy is in a synchronized slowdown. And we are, once again, downgrading growth for 2019 to 3 percent, its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. Growth continues to be weakened by rising trade barriers and growing geopolitical tensions. We estimate that the U.S.‑China trade tensions will cumulatively reduce the level of global GDP by 0.8 percent by 2020. Growth is also being weighed down by country‑specific factors in several emerging market and developing economies and also by structural forces, such as low productivity growth and ageing demographics in advanced economies. … The weakness in growth is driven by a sharp deterioration in manufacturing and global trade, with higher tariffs and prolonged trade policy uncertainty damaging investment and demand for capital goods… Overall, trade volume growth in the first half of 2019 has fallen to 1 percent, the weakest level since 2012.

The good news/bad news volatility is also easy to explain. Stock markets are no longer traded by humans with different perspectives. Stocks are traded by robots, and robots are dumb.

Many investors still have the belief that their buy or sell stock orders are matched against other orders by humans with different views. The orders are matched by computers and the result is an orderly market with efficient price discovery. That scenario is not true.

Today, over 95% of New York Stock Exchange trades are generated by robots using algorithms to decide when to buy and sell. These are not matching systems (which have been around since the 1990s). These are trading robots that decide what to do without human intervention.

Trading is no longer man v. man or woman v. woman. It’s robot v. robot with a small number of trades in the form of man or woman v. robot. You’re not trying to outwit another human. You’re trying to outwit a robot.

The good news is that robots are easy to figure out. They act automatically based on source code and algorithms developed by coders and applied mathematicians who don’t necessarily know much about the psychology of markets. Robots buy or sell based on headlines or key words.

They also buy “high” (as defined) and sell “low” (also as defined) based on boundaries set by the developers.

This dynamic explains both the short-term volatility and the longer-term range bound trading. On the one hand, robots will scramble (in microseconds) to dump stocks if there’s a negative report in the trade wars.

They likewise buy stocks if there’s a positive report in the trade wars. At the same, robots will sell when stocks approach Dow 27,000 (or similar benchmarks on the S&P 500) and buy when stocks approach Dow 25,000.

Unfortunately, neither the robots nor their human developers were ready for the Age of Trump.

President Trump will call President Xi of China his “best friend” on Monday and denounce Chinese “theft” on a Wednesday. Robots are good at reading headlines, but they’re no good at understanding nuance, body language or Trump’s Art of the Deal style.

The same is true of the robots’ ability to understand the Fed.

Jay Powell was a hawk in December 2018 (when he raised rates), a dove in January 2019 (when he promised not to raise rates), a super-dove in the spring of 2019 when he decided to cut rates and end Fed balance sheet reductions, and utterly confused in September 2019 when he said he might not cut rates soon, but would expand the balance sheet. Then Powell cut rates again in October.

How is a robot supposed to understand a highly conflicted human? It can’t. But, it can issue automated buy and sell orders on every new headline.

The bottom line is that growth is weakening, the Fed is cutting rates, the trade wars are not over (despite happy talk) and political tensions are rising.

That’s a mix of support for stocks (Fed rate cuts and good trade war news) and headwinds for stocks (bad trade war news, weak growth and politics). These forces will tend to offset each other and leave stocks in early 2020 about where they are now.

That’s a reason to reduce equity exposure and consider some of the stronger plays in bonds and gold.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 12/05/2019 – 14:40

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How Smartphones Add To Election Chaos

How Smartphones Add To Election Chaos

A study by The Guardian and research agency Revealing Realty has concluded what we’ve known for some time; people tend to cram as much information into their brains, as fast as possible, with little to no scrutiny.

What that leads to, according to the report, is the rapid spread of misinformation while people ignore the substance of an article – often instead heading straight to the comments sections for an argument before absorbing key information.

While The Guardian says the analysis is a “snapshot” and not a “statistically representative sample of the population” due to the fact that they tracked the smartphones of just six volunteers in the UK who agreed to have their smartphone behavior monitored over three days – the publication says the results comport with previous studies to illustrate patterns of behavior across the political spectrum. Given the source, this may also be part of some argument that the nanny state needs to do a better job monitoring and filtering content – for our own good, we’re sure.

Charlie in Sunderland consumed much of his election news through memes on lad humour Facebook pages, spending more time looking at posts of Boris Johnson using the word “boobies” than reading traditional news stories. Fiona in Bolton checked out claims about Jeremy Corbyn’s wealth by going to a website called Jihadi Watch before sharing the far-right material in a deliberate bid to anger her leftwing friends. And Shazi in Sheffield followed the BBC leaders’ interviews purely by watching videos of party supporters chanting the Labour leader’s name outside the venue. –The Guardian

News is becoming intermingled with entertainment,” says Revealing Reality’s Damon De Ionno, who spearheaded the project after inventing the method of recording participants’ smartphone screens. “You’re no longer asking: what’s going on in the world today? It’s very different – you want to be entertained.”

Notable (though not entirely surprising) findings:

  • Several of the subjects shared Facebook articles without clicking the links – and instead dove into the comments sections.
  • People tend to read news that confirms their existing views.
  • We “may be becoming a nation of trolls” (Only right-wing abusing the left, of course).

One 22-year-old Conservative-voting woman was observed going out of her way to read reputable mainstream news sources so she had a balanced understanding of Labour policies. But she would then seek out provocative far-right blog posts to share on Facebook because their headlines would anger her leftwing friends and create online drama.

  •  Mainstream news sources have ceded ground to alternative news outlets.

It’s total anarchy,” said De Ionno. “The idea of fake news and fake ads, with Russians manipulating people, is a really easy bogeyman. The reality is there’s many more shades of grey and it’s hard to unpick.” 

How the study was conducted

At Revealing Reality’s headquarters in a converted ballroom in south London, a group of analysts working for De Ionno are attempting to piece together how Britons are consuming news in this general election campaign with the aid of a wall of photos of each volunteer in their home, pages of data, and transcripts of interviews.

Although there were some changes in behaviour during the study – one person complained they had had to restrict their viewing of online porn while the study was taking place – the researchers believe most people largely forgot their phones were being recorded.

Analysts then studied the recordings of each volunteer’s screen activity using an coding system adapted from software originally built for the study of animal behaviour, before comparing notes following a three-hour interview with each participant.

“They’re disengaging with mainstream sources,” said one analyst.

“If social media content is playing such a central role in shaping people’s views on the election what are the implications for high quality journalism, reputable sources and well constructed and evidenced articles?” asked the researchers.

“News doesn’t stick as well. There’s a new drama every day and cliffhangers on a daily basis. A lot of the respondents didn’t have a good memory of what happened a week ago, said De Ionno.

In short, people don’t trust mainstream news, often don’t read past the headlines, prefer content that reinforces their worldview, and love sharing quick memes while arguing in the comments section.

“If everything people that people are seeing is via social media – who is accountable? There is very little human intelligence or decision-making behind it, no attempt to give a balanced view. That seems to leave all responsibility on the reader.”

We’re sure there’s a nanny-state solution to that!


Tyler Durden

Thu, 12/05/2019 – 14:25

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Aramco Prices At Top-End Of Range: Raises Record $25.6BN In World’s Biggest IPO

Aramco Prices At Top-End Of Range: Raises Record $25.6BN In World’s Biggest IPO

In line with expectations, Saudi Aramco just priced its IPO at the high end of the targeted range, selling 3 billion shares or a 1.5% stake at 32 riyals ($8.53) per share for a total of $25.6 billion, and giving the oil giant a market valuation of $1.7 trillion, making it the world’s biggest company (surpassing Apple) thanks to the what is now the world’s biggest-ever IPO. The money raised by the state-owned producer breaks the record set by Chinese ecommerce giant Alibaba in 2014, but gives the company a valuation well below the $2 trillion sought by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

According to Bloomberg, the closely watched deal which was confined to Saudi accounts over fears of the types of questions that would emerge in an international roadshow, saw a total of $119 billion in subscriptions and was 4.65x oversubscribed but that is simply laughable considering that the Saudi were forced to once again extorting its oligarch like Prince Alwaleed to invest in the IPO at the metaphorical (and perhaps literal) barrel of a gun.

The oil company will also likely exercise its 15% “green shoe”, which would allow it to issue up to 15% more shares to meet demand and could see it ultimately raise more than $29 billion.

In Riyadh’s panicked scramble to get the IPO done at any cost, local retail investors were offered loans to purchase stakes, promised bonus shares and targeted in a nationwide advertising campaign. Meanwhile, in a hilarious flashback two two years ago, wealthy Saudi families, many of whom were caught up in the crown prince’s 2017 corruption crackdown, were also pressured to invest.

Saudi Aramco executives have in recent weeks also tried to drum up interest from state-backed funds in the Gulf, including Abu Dhabi — which was expected to invest $1.5bn. Kuwait was also considering putting in $1bn.

To make sure the deal goes smoothly, Saudi Arabia hired almost all of Wall Street’s biggest banks to advise on the IPO that will see about 1.5% of the company sold. Some of Aramco’s bankers had advised that a more prudent approach would be to sell shares more cheaply in an effort to ensure they trade higher after their debut, a person familiar with the matter said. Clearly, they were overruled, and so the question is how far will Aramco’s price drop once it breaks for trading.

“The banks advised the client to play it safe,” the person said. “There is a risk to the lenders if the shares trade down.”

As the FT notes, the kingdom also sought to increase the company’s appeal by pledging a bumper annual $75bn dividend, which is relatively speaking, below what many of its western peers offer, changing tax and royalty rates as well as curbing long-term capital spending to help cash flows.

Despite such enticements, overseas investors have remained cautious.

The total amount raised -whether $26 or $29BN with the greenshoe – will be a huge disappointment to Prince Mohammed, who for the last four years pushed to raise $100 billion by selling 5% of the group in a global financial capital such as London or New York. In the end he had to satisfy himself with a quarter of this amount sold on a domestic market. Even so, the $25.6 billion total sale means the company surappsed the previous record of $25bn set by Alibaba when it went public in New York.

At $1.7tn, Saudi Aramco’s market capitalisation will still be more than that of the five next biggest oil companies combined. Still, it is worth recalling that just over a decade ago, another energy giant, China’s Petrochina, became the world’s first company to hit a $1 trillion market cap shortly after its 2007 IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

PetroChina’s market value has since plummeted to less than $140 billion, representing the largest destruction of shareholder wealth in world history. Will Aramco follow in Petrochina’s footsteps? For those who say yes, you finally have a chance to short it. 

For those curious for more, here is a good explainer by the WSJ:


Tyler Durden

Thu, 12/05/2019 – 14:10

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John Solomon: The 10 Most Important Revelations To Expect From The Russia Probe FISA Report

John Solomon: The 10 Most Important Revelations To Expect From The Russia Probe FISA Report

Authored by John Solomon via JohnSolomonReports.com,

Next week Americans will finally get their most complete accounting to date of what the FBI did right and wrong in the Russia collusion investigation that probed President Trump’s campaign with a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act warrant at the end of the 2016 election.

Predicted to span more than 500 pages and 100 witness interviews, Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s report Monday will provide a comprehensive catalog of what offenses, mistakes and oversights the FBI committed during one of the most politically polarizing investigations in recent history.

As such, it will serve as a non-partisan roadmap for a much longer process of holding the investigators to account, a process that now includes a criminal probe being led by U.S. Attorney John Durham and investigative hearings by Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Lindsey Graham.

In the evitable political bitterness that grips Washington, each political party will seek to score points by cherry-picking their favorite Horowitz findings. But there is a far weightier question than electoral politics to be resolved: Can the FBI be trusted going forward to adequately, fairly and honestly protect civil liberties of Americans while conducting counterintelligence, counterterrorism and criminal investigations.

With that bigger question in mind, here are the 10 revelations I believe will be most important in the Horowitz report.

1. The scope of failure and misconduct

Were there isolated mistakes, systemic cultural and procedural failures or intentional acts involved in the investigation, the pursuit of the FISA warrant against ex-Trump adviser Carter Page and the renewal of the FISA warrant for more than a year? I expect the Horowitz report to identify between six and 12 failures, mistakes and acts of misconduct. These will range from the serious offense of altering a government document to failures to provide the courts evidence and information required under the FISA process. The large number of problems, if confirmed, should be a wakeup call to the FBI and those who provide oversight of its activities.

2. Exculpatory evidence withheld

The issue of whether the FBI failed to tell the FISA judges, as required, about evidence of innocence concerning some of the Americans it targeted has been raised for more than a year by key members of Congress like Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Ca., and Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C. I expect the IG to identify exculpatory statements made by key figure George Papadopoulos to an undercover informant that were not properly disclosed to the court. A second revelation to watch is whether the FBI possessed similar evidence of innocence involving Page that was not disclosed.

3. Derogatory information about informant Christopher Steele

The FBI stated to the court in a footnote that it was unaware of any derogatory information about the former MI6 agent it was using as “confidential human source 1” in the Russia case. This claim could face a withering analysis in the report. Congressional sources have reported to me that during a recent unclassified meeting they were told the British government flagged concerns about Steele and his reliance on “sub-sources” of intelligence as early as 2015. Bruce Ohr testified he told FBI and DOJ officials early on that he suspected Steele’s intelligence was mostly raw and needed vetting, that Steele was working with Hillary Clinton’s campaign in some capacity and appeared desperate to defeat Trump in the 2016 election. And documents show State Department official Kathleen Kavalec alerted the FBI eight days before the first FISA warrant was obtained that Steele may have been peddling a now-debunked rumor that Trump and Vladimir Putin were secretly communicating through a Russian bank’s computer server. Most experts I talked with say each of these revelations might constitute derogatory information that should be disclosed to the court. On a related note, Horowitz just released a separate report that concluded the FBI is doing a poor job of vetting informants like Steele, suggesting there was a culture of withholding derogatory information from informants’ reliability and credibility validation reports. You can read about that here.

4. News leaks as evidence

One of Horowitz’s earlier investigative reports that recommended fired FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe for possible prosecution put an uncomfortable spotlight on the bureau’s culture of news leaks. Since then, a handful of other cases unrelated to Russia have raised additional questions about whether the FBI uses news leaks to create or cite evidence in courts. One key to watch in the Horowitz report is the analysis of whether it was appropriate for the FBI to use a Yahoo News article as validating evidence to support Steele’s dossier. We now know from testimony and court filings that Steele, his dossier and Fusion GPS founder Glenn Simpson played a role in that Yahoo News story. If so, was the use of the article “circular reporting” instead of independent corroboration? It’s an important question for Horowitz to resolve.

5. Verification under the Woods Procedures

For years the FBI has been required to certify to the FISA court that all information submitted in a warrant application was “verified” under the so-called Woods Procedures. Lawmakers with access to classified information have said for months they fear a key allegation gleaned from Steele’s dossier – that Carter Page had met with two senior Russian officials close to Putin in summer 2016 – was never verified when it was used as evidence in the FISA warrant. We know from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report that those contacts alleged by Steele never happened. Horowitz should provide valuable insight on this issue.

6. Steele dossier heartburn

Former FBI Director James Comey has consistently testified he understood the Steele dossier to be “salacious” and “unverified” and yet the bureau submitted four “verified” warrant applications that relied on evidence from the dossier. A major question for Horowitz to answer is: who else besides Comey shared that distrust and how early did those concerns about the dossier emerge? Congressional Republicans have demanded the release of a series of email chains they claim might show FBI and DOJ officials had similar heartburn about the reliability of the document. In addition, the FBI kept a spreadsheet analyzing the claims in Steele’s dossier. Sources who reviewed it have said the vast majority of the dossier’s claims fell into one of three categories: debunked, could not be verified or traced to open-source intelligence typically found on the Internet.

7. What investigators learned from Steele

We know from State Department memos that more than a week before the first FISA warrant was obtained, Steele visited with senior State officials and acknowledged he was working with the FBI, leaking to news media and had an election day deadline to get his information public. Likewise, Steele similarly indicated to senior Justice official Bruce Ohr as early as summer 2016 he was desperate to stop Trump from being elected and was working in some capacity with Trump’s rival, Hillary Clinton. So here is a big development to watch: What did Steele tell the FBI about these very important issues? And when did the FBI first learn he might be leaking? The FBI ended its informant relationship with Steele on Nov. 1, 2016, a little over a week after using his dossier to support the first FISA warrant. And the reason they did so was because agents had concluded he improperly leaked to the news media. But did the FBI know or have reason to suspect that problem before the first FISA warrant? Stay tuned.

8. Bias, intent and incompetence

The issue of which of these three problems to blame will be the political football most tossed around by partisans. But in the end it is less important to the question of protecting civil liberties. One’s privacy is infringed wrongly whether the FISA application was harmed by intentional bias or incompetence. That said, expect a mixed verdict on this issue. I suspect there is evidence that an FBI lawyer intentionally altered a piece of evidence that affected the FISA process. That could be criminal. I suspect it is less likely that the IG will conclude that the audacious anti-Trump bias expressed in the official text messages of FBI agent Pete Strzok and bureau lawyer Lisa Page impacted specific actions in the FISA process, especially because many more DOJ and FBI than those two were involved in the process. But we already know from the release last month of Strzok’s disciplinary file that the FBI considered the bias expressed in the text messages to be “misconduct” that cast a pall on the credibility of the FBI and its Trump-Russia and Clinton email cases. And I suspect the IG will identify a number of systemic and individual mistakes that tarnished the FISA process in the Russia case.

9. Criminal referrals and disciplinary actions

Horowitz has already referred Comey’s mishandling of sensitive Russia memos for possible prosecution, which was declined. He also referred McCabe for prosecution for lying, an issue which McCabe contests and which appears unresolved. Lots of people will be watching to see if more referrals for prosecution are included in the latest Horowitz report. I would expect at least one, if not more, referrals will have grown out of the Horowitz’s FISA report, which is likely why Durham’s probe recently was converted from administrative to criminal. Other remedies for accountability could fall into the disciplinary category.

10. Lessons Learned

This may not be the most politically hot topic to emerge from the report, but it is potentially the most important for protecting against future civil liberties violations and FBI intrusions on an American election. What will Horowitz recommend as remedies so we don’t have another Russia collusion fiasco in the future? Do FBI and DOJ need new rules and thresholds for opening probes of candidates and campaigns? Does the FBI system for vetting informants need to be fixed? Does the FISA court need a public advocate to protect the liberties of Americans targeted for warrants to create a check and balance on the FBI? Do the Woods procedures for verifying evidence for a FISA warrant need revision or overhaul? These are weighty questions that the FBI, DOJ and Congress almost certainly will face in the coming months.

The Horowitz report Monday and the IG’s testimony next Wednesday before the Senate start a new phase of accountability for the FBI and those government officials in the intelligence community who worked on the Russia case. But it is only a beginning of a process that likely will take many more weeks or months.

And the final script won’t be written until Americans can be assured the FBI can conduct future counterintelligence investigations without repeating the mistakes made during the Russia collusion probe.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 12/05/2019 – 13:50

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Los Angeles Bans Developers From Making Campaign Donations

In the midst of an affordable housing crisis, Los Angeles politicians have decided to reduce their own incentives to approve more development. On Wednesday, the city council voted unanimously to ban developers from donating to candidates for city offices.

Under the new law, people and companies seeking discretionary city approval for real estate projects would be forbidden from donating to anyone running for mayor, city council, or city attorney while their project application is pending, and up to 12 months after it’s approved.

Also barred from making campaign contributions are the corporate executives of development companies and investors who own up to 20 percent of these companies.

“Today, we took a crucial step in rebuilding trust in City Hall. There is nothing more fundamental than building trust in our democracy, and today, we are laying the foundation for a City Hall that works for the people,” reads a Wednesday press release from City Councilmember David Ryu (D), for whom banning developer contributions has been a long-running priority.

Critics of the ban say it doesn’t go far enough.

Councilmember Mike Bonin labeled the bill a “token & hollow ban” on Twitter, pointing out that while the legislation restricted developers from supporting campaigns, it left equally “insidious” fossil fuel executives and gun manufacturers untouched. Bonin’s preferred solution is to publicly finance elections.

The Los Angeles Times editorial board similarly called yesterday’s bill a “job half-finished,” noting that the measure did nothing to stop subcontractors from donating to campaigns. Nor does it stop developers from hosting fundraisers or helping to bundle donations from other contributors, complains the Times editorial.

Less concerning to these parties is the way that the city’s ban on developer donations is tilting the political playing field against people trying to fix the city’s housing crisis by building more housing.

“Whenever a developer wants to do something, there’s probably someone who lives near the development who probably doesn’t want it,” says David Keating, president of the Institute for Free Speech. “Essentially, L.A. has passed a law saying people with one interest in a decision by the council can support candidates, but the other side can’t. In a sense, it’s a form of viewpoint discrimination.”

Indeed, there’s no shortage of financially self-interested NIMBYs in Los Angeles who stand to gain from city councilmembers blocking new housing development.

That could include everyone from your standard homeowner worried that new development will reduce the value of their homes, to construction unions trying to slow down the planning process until a developer agrees to hire their guys, to activists kvetching about lost sunlight.

The logic behind Los Angeles’ ban is that these folks have a greater right to influence the outcomes of elections than people trying to put up apartment buildings.

By allowing donations by people on one side of the issue, but not another, Keating says the Los Angeles ordinance could be vulnerable to a legal challenge on First Amendment grounds. He suggests that the city could achieve the anti-corruption purposes of the bill by issuing reports on which councilmembers are receiving developer contributions.

If the goal is to “get money out of politics,” it would be even better to deregulate housing development such that city councilmembers aren’t deciding the fates of individual developments. Developers will have fewer reasons to spend money on Los Angeles elections.

For instance, yesterday’s legislation lists a number of specific city approvals developers would have to apply for before they’d be barred from donating to campaigns. These include things like density bonuses—where developers are allowed to build taller, denser buildings in exchange for including more affordable units—variances for height restrictions, a zone change for a property, or amendments to the city’s general plan to allow for an otherwise prohibited type of development at a site. If developers were allowed to build what they wanted on the land they own, they wouldn’t have to beg city officials for approval, thus eliminating any need to influence or corrupt these officials in the first place.

Obviously, that kind of sweeping deregulation of land use in Los Angeles is not going to happen any time soon.

Given that, a second-best option would be to try and strengthen, not weaken, developers’ influence over local politics. Los Angeles has some of the highest housing costs in the country. Its residents would benefit immensely from a lot more housing construction. That construction can’t happen if developers are shut out of politics.

Throwing money at political problems obviously isn’t ideal. That money would be better spent investing in things people want and need rather than filling the campaign chests of people with too much power. But without massive deregulation of L.A.’s housing market, allowing developers to have their say in politics is the city’s only hope for easing the housing shortage.

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Los Angeles Bans Developers From Making Campaign Donations

In the midst of an affordable housing crisis, Los Angeles politicians have decided to reduce their own incentives to approve more development. On Wednesday, the city council voted unanimously to ban developers from donating to candidates for city offices.

Under the new law, people and companies seeking discretionary city approval for real estate projects would be forbidden from donating to anyone running for mayor, city council, or city attorney while their project application is pending, and up to 12 months after it’s approved.

Also barred from making campaign contributions are the corporate executives of development companies and investors who own up to 20 percent of these companies.

“Today, we took a crucial step in rebuilding trust in City Hall. There is nothing more fundamental than building trust in our democracy, and today, we are laying the foundation for a City Hall that works for the people,” reads a Wednesday press release from City Councilmember David Ryu (D), for whom banning developer contributions has been a long-running priority.

Critics of the ban say it doesn’t go far enough.

Councilmember Mike Bonin labeled the bill a “token & hollow ban” on Twitter, pointing out that while the legislation restricted developers from supporting campaigns, it left equally “insidious” fossil fuel executives and gun manufacturers untouched. Bonin’s preferred solution is to publicly finance elections.

The Los Angeles Times editorial board similarly called yesterday’s bill a “job half-finished,” noting that the measure did nothing to stop subcontractors from donating to campaigns. Nor does it stop developers from hosting fundraisers or helping to bundle donations from other contributors, complains the Times editorial.

Less concerning to these parties is the way that the city’s ban on developer donations is tilting the political playing field against people trying to fix the city’s housing crisis by building more housing.

“Whenever a developer wants to do something, there’s probably someone who lives near the development who probably doesn’t want it,” says David Keating, president of the Institute for Free Speech. “Essentially, L.A. has passed a law saying people with one interest in a decision by the council can support candidates, but the other side can’t. In a sense, it’s a form of viewpoint discrimination.”

Indeed, there’s no shortage of financially self-interested NIMBYs in Los Angeles who stand to gain from city councilmembers blocking new housing development.

That could include everyone from your standard homeowner worried that new development will reduce the value of their homes, to construction unions trying to slow down the planning process until a developer agrees to hire their guys, to activists kvetching about lost sunlight.

The logic behind Los Angeles’ ban is that these folks have a greater right to influence the outcomes of elections than people trying to put up apartment buildings.

By allowing donations by people on one side of the issue, but not another, Keating says the Los Angeles ordinance could be vulnerable to a legal challenge on First Amendment grounds. He suggests that the city could achieve the anti-corruption purposes of the bill by issuing reports on which councilmembers are receiving developer contributions.

If the goal is to “get money out of politics,” it would be even better to deregulate housing development such that city councilmembers aren’t deciding the fates of individual developments. Developers will have fewer reasons to spend money on Los Angeles elections.

For instance, yesterday’s legislation lists a number of specific city approvals developers would have to apply for before they’d be barred from donating to campaigns. These include things like density bonuses—where developers are allowed to build taller, denser buildings in exchange for including more affordable units—variances for height restrictions, a zone change for a property, or amendments to the city’s general plan to allow for an otherwise prohibited type of development at a site. If developers were allowed to build what they wanted on the land they own, they wouldn’t have to beg city officials for approval, thus eliminating any need to influence or corrupt these officials in the first place.

Obviously, that kind of sweeping deregulation of land use in Los Angeles is not going to happen any time soon.

Given that, a second-best option would be to try and strengthen, not weaken, developers’ influence over local politics. Los Angeles has some of the highest housing costs in the country. Its residents would benefit immensely from a lot more housing construction. That construction can’t happen if developers are shut out of politics.

Throwing money at political problems obviously isn’t ideal. That money would be better spent investing in things people want and need rather than filling the campaign chests of people with too much power. But without massive deregulation of L.A.’s housing market, allowing developers to have their say in politics is the city’s only hope for easing the housing shortage.

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Baltimore Mayor Says Men in White Vans Are Snatching Young Girls for Sex Trafficking

White van hysteria has hit a new high, with Baltimore Mayor Jack Young warning his citizens not to even park near a white van. People in at least one of these vehicles are coming to enslave young women, force them into prostitution, murder them, and sell their body parts, suggested the mayor.

Seriously.

“We’re getting reports of somebody in a white van trying to snatch up young girls for human trafficking and for selling body parts, I’m told, so we have to really be careful, because there’s so much evil going on, not just in the city of Baltimore, but around the country,” said Young, according to WBAL-TV.

None of this is true. The mayor has combined a bunch of practically non-existent fears into one hairball of hysteria.

When asked for the source of his information by the skeptical local reporter Vanessa Herring, he said: “It’s all over Facebook.”

And that it is. All over. This incredibly thorough CNN report tracked down viral postings of the white van story and seems to have found the origin. A November 13 post by a Baltimore resident claimed she had seen two men in a white van outside a gas station who would not stop staring at her. She made the mental leap from guys in a van to OMG put it on Facebook and that was all it took. In a twist, the woman even wrote that she thought other people on social media were exaggerating when they posted about their terrifying white van encounters, but now that she had this terrifying (non) encounter of her own, she was a believer. Those two men outside the gas station were “part of a bigger story,” she wrote. “I don’t think they are two random guys.”

For the record: I do. There were about half a million commercial vans sold in 2017 alone. The average vehicle lasts 10 years. There are highways full of guys in white vans all across America, because that’s what a whole lot of them drive for work. In the back are… tools. Being freaked out by a van is like being freaked out by a pigeon.

For another reality check, I looked at the U.S. Department of Justice statistics about child kidnappings. Here they are. You’ll see that the stats show abductions are not going up, and that stranger abductions are incredibly rare. The number of minors (under age 18) kidnapped and killed by a stranger is about nine a year, in a country of about 65 million minors. Every single death of every single kid is tragic, obviously. But the man-in-van-equals-mayhem equation is just not something we have to worry about. We can’t always believe what we see online or in things like these home security ads.

When I interviewed David Finkelhor, head of the Crimes Against Children Resource Center, he told me he had heard of no cases of a child being snatched from a parent in a public place and sex-trafficked. Not one.

To sound reasonable, many people default to, “Well, even if this particular rumor isn’t true, it’s still a good reminder to pay attention to your surroundings.” Which is true—when it comes to some surroundings.

Pay attention when crossing the street.

Pay attention when driving.

Pay attention when someone forwards you a post based on zero evidence and a whole lot of hooey. It’s not a good deed to sustain a baseless rumor.

Try to refute the fear with facts. Or at least don’t press share.

And to all you guys with white vans out there: Good luck.

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Baltimore Mayor Says Men in White Vans Are Snatching Young Girls for Sex Trafficking

White van hysteria has hit a new high, with Baltimore Mayor Jack Young warning his citizens not to even park near a white van. People in at least one of these vehicles are coming to enslave young women, force them into prostitution, murder them, and sell their body parts, suggested the mayor.

Seriously.

“We’re getting reports of somebody in a white van trying to snatch up young girls for human trafficking and for selling body parts, I’m told, so we have to really be careful, because there’s so much evil going on, not just in the city of Baltimore, but around the country,” said Young, according to WBAL-TV.

None of this is true. The mayor has combined a bunch of practically non-existent fears into one hairball of hysteria.

When asked for the source of his information by the skeptical local reporter Vanessa Herring, he said: “It’s all over Facebook.”

And that it is. All over. This incredibly thorough CNN report tracked down viral postings of the white van story and seems to have found the origin. A November 13 post by a Baltimore resident claimed she had seen two men in a white van outside a gas station who would not stop staring at her. She made the mental leap from guys in a van to OMG put it on Facebook and that was all it took. In a twist, the woman even wrote that she thought other people on social media were exaggerating when they posted about their terrifying white van encounters, but now that she had this terrifying (non) encounter of her own, she was a believer. Those two men outside the gas station were “part of a bigger story,” she wrote. “I don’t think they are two random guys.”

For the record: I do. There were about half a million commercial vans sold in 2017 alone. The average vehicle lasts 10 years. There are highways full of guys in white vans all across America, because that’s what a whole lot of them drive for work. In the back are… tools. Being freaked out by a van is like being freaked out by a pigeon.

For another reality check, I looked at the U.S. Department of Justice statistics about child kidnappings. Here they are. You’ll see that the stats show abductions are not going up, and that stranger abductions are incredibly rare. The number of minors (under age 18) kidnapped and killed by a stranger is about nine a year, in a country of about 65 million minors. Every single death of every single kid is tragic, obviously. But the man-in-van-equals-mayhem equation is just not something we have to worry about. We can’t always believe what we see online or in things like these home security ads.

When I interviewed David Finkelhor, head of the Crimes Against Children Resource Center, he told me he had heard of no cases of a child being snatched from a parent in a public place and sex-trafficked. Not one.

To sound reasonable, many people default to, “Well, even if this particular rumor isn’t true, it’s still a good reminder to pay attention to your surroundings.” Which is true—when it comes to some surroundings.

Pay attention when crossing the street.

Pay attention when driving.

Pay attention when someone forwards you a post based on zero evidence and a whole lot of hooey. It’s not a good deed to sustain a baseless rumor.

Try to refute the fear with facts. Or at least don’t press share.

And to all you guys with white vans out there: Good luck.

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Crowd-Checking Forthcoming Amicus Brief on the Solicitation Exception in U.S. v. Sineneng-Smith

The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear U.S. v. Sineneng-Smith, a case having to do with when speech encouraging illegal conduct (there, illegal entry into the U.S. or illegal residence in the U.S.) can be criminally punished. I think the statute is properly read as limited to what American law generally calls “solicitation” of specific criminal conduct, rather than applying to abstract advocacy of such conduct. The Ninth Circuit read the statute more broadly, but the federal government argues (correctly, I think) that the statute should be read as limited to solicitation (though the government also argues that it criminalizes solicitation of noncriminal conduct as well).

I’ll be filing an amicus brief (on my own behalf) in support of neither party in the case, and it’s due at the printers tomorrow morning. In the meantime, I’d love to hear any suggestions for how it can be improved or corrected; please post them in the comments, or e-mail me at volokh at law.ucla.edu. (Of course, I’ll be cite-checking it and proofreading it myself today as well.)

Note that the question before the Court isn’t whether to recognize a solicitation exception—that was answered “yes” in United States v. Williams, and I can’t imagine the Court changing its mind on that. Rather, it’s what the boundaries of the exception should be.

[* * *]

Summary of Argument

In United States v. Williams, 553 U.S. 285, 297 (2008), this Court recognized a solicitation exception to the First Amendment—or perhaps recognized that solicitation is a special case of the “speech integral to criminal conduct” exception. See Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project, 561 U.S. 1, 43-44 (2010) (Breyer, J., dissenting); United States v. White, 610 F.3d 956, 960 (7th Cir. 2010). Either way, this Court did not define when speech becomes constitutionally unprotected solicitation, and when it remains constitutionally protected advocacy subject to the Brandenburg test. This case offers the opportunity to clarify this question, much as this Court has clarified what constitutes unprotected incitement, obscenity, child pornography, fighting words, and the like.

To be sure, if this Court concludes that 8 U.S.C. § 1324(a)(1)(A)(iv), which generally bans “encourag[ing] or induc[ing]” illegal entry or residence, goes beyond solicitation and does extend to abstract advocacy—e.g., someone writing a newspaper column broadly encouraging people to illegally enter the United States—then the statute could just be struck down as overbroad. But if the statute can be read as limited to solicitation, then this Court needs to define what solicitation means.

In particular, this case offers an opportunity to better define the “important distinction” between unprotected solicitation of crime and protected “abstract advocacy” of crime. Williams, 553 U.S. at 298-99 (citing Brandenburg v. Ohio, 395 U.S. 444 (1969)). This is especially so because the solicitation exception lacks the important “imminence” prong of the incitement exception: Soliciting crimes that are to take place some substantial time in the future can be punishable.

The line between protected abstract advocacy and unprotected solicitation must instead turn on specificity—solicitation should be limited to directly, specifically, and purposefully encouraging people to commit a particular crime. Sometimes this line may not be easy to draw, but often the distinction will be quite clear. And if § 1324(a)(1)(A)(iv) is read as limited to such solicitation of specific criminal conduct (even nonviolent criminal conduct), it is constitutional.

Moreover, because the premise of the solicitation exception is that solicitation is conduct integral to the commission of a crime, only solicitation of criminal conduct can be made criminal consistently with the First Amendment. Solicitation of merely civilly punishable conduct cannot be made criminal, though it can be punished civilly.

Argument

[I.] Title 8 U.S.C. § 1324(a)(1)(A)(iv) should be read as a constitutionally permissible ban on soliciting criminal conduct

Amicus agrees with the Government that the prohibition on “encourag[ing] or induc[ing]” in 8 U.S.C. § 1324(a)(1)(A)(iv) should be read as limited to solicitation, not abstract advocacy. See U.S. Br. 18-28.

[II.] Defining solicitation

This of course leaves the question of just what constitutes solicitation that is excluded from First Amendment protection. Lower courts and prosecutors need guidance on this, just as this Court has provided guidance as to other exceptions, such as incitement, obscenity, fighting words, and libel.

[A.] To be solicitation governed by Williams, rather than abstract advocacy governed by the Brandenburg incitement test, speech must be highly specific

To begin with, the Williams solicitation exception must coexist with the Brandenburg incitement exception. Simply allowing speech to be punished because it intentionally encourages some crime in the abstract, without a showing of imminence or likelihood of harm, would wrongly let Williams swallow up Brandenburg.

Indeed, American lawyers have been thinking about this problem since at least the late 1800s: The 1874 edition of Francis Wharton’s influential criminal law treatise, for instance, reasoned that too broad a view of solicitation would “greatly infringe[]” the “necessary freedom of speech and of the press.” 2 Francis Wharton, A Treatise on the Criminal Law of the United States 850 (7th ed. 1874). And this Court in Williams discussed this explicitly:

“To be sure, there remains an important distinction between a proposal to engage in illegal activity and the abstract advocacy of illegality. See Brandenburg v. Ohio, 395 U.S. at 447-448. The Act before us does not prohibit advocacy of child pornography, but only offers to provide or requests to obtain it …. [T]he term “promotes” [in the statute] does not refer to abstract advocacy, such as the statement “I believe that child pornography should be legal” or even “I encourage you to obtain child pornography.” It refers to the recommendation of a particular piece of purported child pornography with the intent of initiating a transfer …. There is no doubt that this prohibition falls well within constitutional bounds.”

553 U.S. at 298-99. The decision appeared to draw a line between specific advocacy—for instance, of a crime involving a specific victim or a specific item of contraband (as in Williams itself)—and abstract advocacy.

Lower court solicitation decisions are consistent with that line. Thus, the Seventh Circuit’s decision in United States v. White upheld a solicitation conviction for a threat against a particular juror, 610 F.3d 956, 957 (7th Cir. 2010); “punish all jurors who are traitors to their race” may in general be protected abstract advocacy, but “kill [juror name], who lives at [address]” would be unprotected solicitation. Several courts have upheld criminal punishment of statutory rape, when the defendant was trying to arrange an assignation at a specific time and place with someone whom he believed to be a specific minor. See, e.g., United States v. Hite, 896 F. Supp. 2d 17, 23 (D.D.C. 2012); United States v. McDaniel, 677 F.3d 346, 350 (8th Cir. 2012); Worth v. State, 223 So. 3d 844, 851 (Miss. Ct. App. 2017)). In United States v. Freeman, the Ninth Circuit specifically distinguished “statements that, at least arguably, were of abstract generality” (and thus constitutionally protected) from “advice to commit a specific criminal act” (there, a specific sort of income tax evasion), which would not be protected. United States v. Freeman, 761 F.2d 549, 552 (9th Cir. 1985). Other cases agree. See, e.g., People v. Rubin, 96 Cal. App. 3d 968, 977 (1979) (public offer of $500 to anyone who kills or seriously injuries any member of the American Nazi Party was constitutionally unprotected solicitation, because it was sufficiently specific); Sheeran v. State, 528 A.2d 886, 891 (1987) (request that a person burn a particular building was constitutionally unprotected solicitation, because it was sufficiently specific).

Likewise, in Hess v. Indiana, this Court concluded that a protester’s statement that “we’ll take the fucking street later” as police attempted to clear a crowd from a street was constitutionally protected: “Since the uncontroverted evidence showed that Hess’s statement was not directed to any person or group of persons, it cannot be said that he was advocating, in the normal sense, any action.” 414 U.S. 105, 109 (1973). The Court in Hess was speaking only about the incitement exception (hence this Court’s discussion of imminence, id.), but it is likely that Hess’s speech would not be solicitation, either, because of its generality: the speech lacked any specificity as to audience, lacked any specificity as to timing (“at worst, it amounted to nothing more than advocacy of illegal action at some indefinite future time,” id. at 108), and lacked a sufficient indication that the speech was really advocacy rather than just fulmination. But a statement to particular people that showed specificity of detail, such as “let us all come back and illegally block the street next Monday,” might well be punishable solicitation, albeit of a comparatively minor crime.

To decide whether § 1324(a)(1)(A)(iv) is unconstitutionally overbroad or vague on its face, this Court does not have to consider exactly how the line between solicitation and abstract advocacy will be drawn. But the cases do suggest some clear distinctions, and this Court should offer guidance on those distinctions.

In particular, merely arguing to the public at large that current immigration restrictions are wrong, and that it is morally proper for people to violate them in their search for a better life, would not be solicitation. See, e.g., Williams, 553 U.S. at 299 (stressing that the solicitation ban in that case “does not prohibit advocacy of child pornography,” or statements that “I believe that child pornography should be legal”). Indeed, even arguing in general that the listener should violate the law might not be punishable solicitation. See id. at 300 (stressing that the statute did not ban even statements such as “I encourage you to obtain child pornography”). Thus, “[a] loving grandmother who urges her grandson to overstay his visa, by telling him ‘I encourage you to stay,'” United States v. Sineneng-Smith, 910 F.3d 461, 483 (9th Cir. 2018) (cleaned up), would not be engaged in punishable solicitation.

But deliberately urging people to break the law at particular times or in particular ways (e.g., “you should hire X to bring you across the border near Y” or “you should stay in the country, though I know it is a crime for you to do so, and hide from the enforcement authorities in this particular way”) would be classic solicitation of criminal conduct. There may, of course, be borderline cases in which it is not clear whether the statement is specific enough to be punishable solicitation. Yet that is true of criminal solicitation statutes generally, and courts have nonetheless concluded that solicitation of crime is constitutionally unprotected. See, e.g., Williams, 553 U.S. at 299, 301-03; White, 610 F.3d at 961.

[B.] Solicitation may be criminally punished only if it consists of solicitation of crime

This Court’s decision in Williams builds on the principle that the First Amendment does not protect “speech or writing used as an integral part of conduct in violation of a valid criminal statute.” Giboney v. Empire Storage & Ice Co., 336 U.S. 490, 498 (1949) (cited in Williams, 553 U.S. at 297, as support for the proposition that “Offers to engage in illegal transactions are categorically excluded from First Amendment protection.”); see Volokh, The “Speech Integral to Criminal Conduct” Exception, supra, 101 Cornell L. Rev. at 989-97. Of course, this requires a valid statute, which is to say one that does not itself violate the First Amendment, because it bans conduct or speech that falls within one of the existing First Amendment exceptions. But when there is such a statute, whether it bans murder, or distribution of child pornography (such as in Williams), or restraint of trade (such as in Giboney), or criminal immigration violations (such as in this case), then soliciting violations of such a statute can itself be criminalized.

But this principle can only justify treating solicitation as akin to the solicited conduct. Solicitation of crime can be made criminal. Solicitation of civilly punishable or actionable conduct can lead to civil liability. See, e.g., Rumsfeld v. FAIR, 547 U.S. 47, 62 (2006) (suggesting that threats of public accommodation discrimination can themselves be made actionable, on the theory that such threats are a form of punishable conduct). That would indeed be treating solicitation as “an integral part of [the solicited] conduct.”

Solicitation of civilly punishable conduct, though, ought not be criminalizable consistently with the First Amendment, because that would go beyond treating the solicitation as “integral to criminal conduct,” United States v. Stevens, 559 U.S. 460, 468 (2010). “There comes a time, of course, when speech and action are so closely brigaded that they are really one.”  Pittsburgh Press Co. v. Pittsburgh Commission on Human Relations, 413 U.S. 376, 398 (1973) (Douglas, J., dissenting) (citing Giboney as an example). But when “they are really one,” they ought to be either treated generally alike, or with the speech being more protected than action—not with the speech being criminalized when the action is not.

The First Amendment often justifies protecting speech more than related action, as when abstract advocacy of crime is protected. It may sometimes tolerate treating speech as equally punishable with action.

But it cannot allow treating speech as more punishable than the action that it encourages. The government cannot “afford[] a greater degree of protection to commercial than to noncommercial speech,” Metromedia, Inc. v. City of San Diego, 453 U.S. 490, 513 (1981) (plurality op.), because that would “invert[ the] judgment” that “noncommercial speech [generally receives] a greater degree of protection than commercial speech,” id. Likewise, the government cannot afford a greater degree of protection to conduct than to noncommercial speech that is supposedly “integral” to that conduct.

[C.] Solicitation of crime may be punished even if it purposefully solicits conduct that would happen months in the future

Solicitation generally requires simply a purpose to persuade someone to commit a crime against a specific enough victim or in a specific enough way, coupled with words that are intended to so persuade. “In the case of a criminal solicitation, the speech—asking another to commit a crime—is the punishable act …. [T]he crime is complete once the words are spoken with the requisite intent, and no further actions from either the solicitor or the solicitee are necessary.” White, 610 F.3d at 960. This intent is the “inten[t] that acts constituting a federal offense result,” United States v. Korab, 893 F.2d 212, 215 (9th Cir. 1989), labeled “purpose” in Model Penal Code terms: “A person is guilty of solicitation to commit a crime if with the purpose of promoting or facilitating its commission he commands, encourages or requests another person to engage in specific conduct that would constitute such crime ….” Model Penal Code § 5.02(1).

Urging someone to commit the crime of illegal entry into the United States, or to remain here when it is a crime to do so, with the purpose that the hearer act on this urging, is thus punishable solicitation. And such solicitation (as opposed to incitement) is not limited to speech soliciting imminent criminal conduct, at least in the sense of conduct that will happen in minutes or hours.

The classic examples of solicitation often involve speech urging criminal conduct at some definite or indefinite time in the future. Speech asking one’s followers to kill a particular juror may be solicitation even if one is not encouraging the followers to impulsively act right away. See, e.g., White, 610 F.3d at 957-58, 960 (soliciting murder is punishable even when no schedule had been set); United States v. Dvorkin, 799 F.3d 867, 878-79 (7th Cir. 2015) (likewise). Indeed, the speaker would presumably want to encourage the followers to plan carefully and deliberately, taking what time is needed.

Likewise, speech arranging a tryst with an underage correspondent can be criminal solicitation even if the encounter is to take place in a week or a month. See, e.g., Worth, 223 So. 3d at 847 (arrangement on March 25 to meet a 15-year-old girl for sex on April 20). Speech urging people to cheat in a particular way on their tax returns should be solicitation on January 14 as much as on April 14.

Some courts have offhandedly characterized criminal solicitation as limited to requests for imminent criminal conduct. See United States v. Phipps, 595 F.3d 243, 247 (5th Cir. 2010) (holding that counseling tax violations constituted a solicitation because it would lead to imminent lawlessness); State v. Ferguson, 264 P.3d 575, 578 (Wash. Ct. App. 2011) (upholding an accomplice liability statute banning soliciting, aiding, and abetting crime, on the grounds that the statute is supposedly limited to advocacy of imminent criminal conduct); Freeman, 761 F.2d at 552 (concluding that urging someone to commit tax fraud, if specific enough, could be punishable because it is “intended and likely to produce an imminent criminal act”).

But, for the reasons given above, such a limitation is not consistent with the logic of the solicitation exception recognized by Williams. Indeed, some of the cases that purport to apply an imminence requirement for solicitations do so just by implicitly redefining imminence, so that even behavior many months in the future would qualify as “imminent.” See, e.g., State v. March, 494 S.W.3d 52, 63, 75 (Tenn. Ct. Crim. App. 2010) (concluding that solicitation of murder involved an “imminent” crime even when “the plan was for [the solicitee, who was in jail,] to get out of jail on bond, lay low for a while, observe the [prospective victims], and find a routine where he could catch them together”); Freeman, 761 F.2d at 562 (describing solicitation of tax fraud as involving urging of imminent conduct, even though there was no indication that the solicitation happened on the eve of the tax filing); Phipps, 595 F.3d at 247 (likewise); Rubin, 96 Cal. App. 3d at 978 (requiring imminence but defining it to include actions that “may be some weeks away,” on the theory that “time is a relative dimension and imminence a relative term, and the imminence of an event is related to its nature”).

Such redefining of the term “imminent” is not sound, and it may lead to an erosion of the imminence threshold required under the Brandenburg test for abstract advocacy of crime. But even if this Court thinks that the crime of solicitation should include some proximity element, it should (1) uphold § 1324(a)(1)(A)(iv) as implicitly including such an element (much as Freeman and Phipps appeared to do as to the solicitation of tax fraud), and (2) make clear that this element can be satisfied—unlike with incitement under Brandenburg—even when there is a delay of weeks or months between the solicitation and the prospective criminal conduct being solicited.

[D.] Solicitation may be punished even when the solicited crime is nonviolent

One court has suggested (without expressly so concluding) that soliciting nonviolent crimes might not be punishable. United States v. Bell, 414 F.3d 474, 483 (3rd Cir. 2005). But the dominant view is to the contrary. See, e.g., Phipps, 595 F.3d at 247 (tax evasion); Freeman, 761 F.2d at 552 (likewise). Justice Brandeis’s opinion in Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357, 378 (1927), acknowledged that a state may “punish an attempt, a conspiracy, or an incitement to commit” “any trespass upon the land of another”—and that logic would equally cover solicitation—even though a state may not punish mere teaching and advocacy of such trespass.

Indeed, in Branzburg v. Hayes, 408 U.S. 665 (1972), this Court held that First Amendment law cannot protect some speech more than other speech depending on the severity of the crime to which the speech is relevant. In that case, journalists (and some of the dissenting Justices, id. at 745 n.35) argued that reporters might be subpoenaed to testify about confidential sources in criminal investigations of serious crimes, but not in criminal investigations of minor crimes. No, said, this Court: “[B]y considering whether enforcement of a particular law served a ‘compelling’ governmental interest, the courts would be inextricably involved in distinguishing between the value of enforcing different criminal laws,” which would involve courts improperly “making a value judgment that a legislature had declined to make, since in each case the criminal law involved would represent a considered legislative judgment, not constitutionally suspect, of what conduct is liable to criminal prosecution.” Id. at 705-06; see also Eugene Volokh, Crime Severity and Constitutional Line-Drawing, 90 Va. L. Rev. 1957, 1975-82 (2004) (arguing that any such constitutional lines based on case-by-case judgments of crime severity are hard to enforce in any principled way).

To be sure, in some contexts even speech that may end up encouraging criminal conduct might be constitutionally protected. See, e.g., Conant v. Walters, 309 F.3d 629, 637-39 (9th Cir. 2002) (reasoning that physicians’ advice to patients about the medical benefits of marijuana—even when marijuana possession remains illegal under federal law—may be constitutionally protected). Likewise, while lawyers ought not actively counsel their clients to violate the law, some statements that have the effect of increasing clients’ willingness to violate the law (e.g., “No, I think that under these circumstances you’re not likely to be criminally prosecuted for illegally remaining in the United States”) may be protected.

But these unusual scenarios should be handled either through recognizing narrow constitutional privileges for such situations, or through making clear that simply explaining the likely consequences of a particular course of action does not constitute “encourag[ing] or induc[ing]” that action. Indeed, striking down § 1324(a)(1)(A)(iv) as unconstitutionally vague or overbroad simply because of these professional speech scenarios would endanger a wide range of criminal solicitation statutes, such as 18 U.S.C. § 2, which generally do not have any express exceptions for professional-client speech.

This analysis does suggest that discussions among friends or even family members might be covered by § 1324(a)(1)(A)(iv): The “loving grandmother who urges her grandson to overstay his visa,” Sineneng-Smith, 910 F.3d at  483, could indeed be viewed as soliciting an offense (whether civil or criminal) if she offers specific details as to how he might commit the offense.

But loving grandmothers, no less than others, are subject to the constraints of solicitation law. If a grandmother encourages her grandson to engage in a specific course of fraud or violence, she can be punished for that. The same is true for encouraging the grandson to violate immigration laws.

Perhaps in some such situations, a prosecutor may choose not to prosecute the grandmother, or any other friend or family member, especially if the prosecutor believes that immigration violations are not very serious offenses. Justice may sometimes be tempered by an understanding of how the bonds of affection can lead people to violate the law in comparatively minor ways. But the First Amendment does not protect solicitation of crimes even within families.

Conclusion

This Court has recognized that there is a criminal solicitation exception to the First Amendment. This case offers an opportunity to carefully define the boundaries of this exception, establishing when the exception stops and the protection for abstract advocacy (governed by the Brandenburg test) starts.

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