Tag: news

Reality Is Dawning

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

Yesterday’s announcement by the Trump administration to delay some of the new tariffs on China it just announced a few weeks ago was initially greeted with relief by equity markets across the globe. This proved to be mistake as reality is dawning and global stock markets are selling off hard just a day later on ever weakening economic data in Europe and Asia and further yield curve inversions.

Call it a major hangover as the reversal in tariffs was not coming from a position of strength, it was coming as a result of global economic reality sinking in, a reality that is making its way rapidly to US shores as well. The collapse in global yields has been a theme since October of 2018 with the US 10 year dropping to 1.6% from its October 2018 high of 3.25%, but only now that the 2 year/10 year yield curve has inverted are the official recession alarm bells ringing. Why? Because every single recession in the past 45 years has seen a 2 year/10year yield curve inversion preceding it.

To believe no recession is coming is to argue that this inversion is defying history. And indeed let’s look at history, because it is now used to argue that this yield curve inversion leaves room for further market rallies to new highs. Does it?

If history is a guide, then the answer is yes but market relevant timing can vary quite a bit and depending on how the data is framed up you can get different conclusions.

The calmer interpretation comes via Credit Suisse:

“A recession occurs, on average, 22 months following a 2-10 inversion. The S&P 500 is up, on average, 12% one year after a 2-10 inversion. It’s not until about 18 months after an inversion when the stock market usually turns and posts negative returns”.

Yet via BAML we can see history suggesting scenarios that offer precious less time:

“For the ten [2/10] inversions back to 1956, the S&P 500 topped out within approximately three months of the inversion six times (1956, 1959, 1965, 1973, 1980, and 2000). The S&P 500 took 11 to 22 months to peak after the other four inversions (1967, 1978, 1989, and 2005).”

Three months versus 22 months? That’s quite a big gap.

Now both of these historic time windows suggest there is room for markets to make new highs in the next few months. In fact one can imagine several scenarios on how these new highs could come about.

Central banks could embark on emergency rates cuts and re-introduce quantitative easing programs and hope to force more cash into equities again.

The Trump administration, eager to avoid a recession ahead of the 2020 election, may find themselves in a position to end the trade war sooner rather than later. As it turns out the Trump administration is faced with several historic miscalculations of their own making. The massive tax cuts of 2017 have produced little in the form of growth other than a temporary sugar high. Growth is slowing and has been slowing. Long gone are the promises of 4% GDP growth. Rather growth is looking to drop below 2% in lieu of a trade deal. The only thing that has been growing are deficits on pace to hit $1 trillion this year already.

Turns out trade wars are not easy and the global growth picture is accelerating to the downside. Last week the UK announced negative GDP growth for the past quarter. This week it’s Germany announcing shrinking GDP with its 10 year hitting a record negative 0.62% yield and European industrial production having gone negative and China announcing its lowest industrial production growth in 17 years.

All of these are signs that the risk of a global recession is a clear and present danger and hence a sudden end to a trade war, with a attempt at face saving by both sides, could certainly spark a sustained global relief rally that may end up averting a recession at this stage as uncertainty would be alleviated and investment decisions, currently on hold, could be made again.

Indeed the most powerful combination of factors setting the stage for a coming market rally of size would be rate cuts first and then a sudden end to the trade deal. It could prove to be a liquidity bonanza.

That’s the upside, the downside is also current context versus history:

And this is where I caution everyone to rely on history exclusively  believing we have time. Do we have time?

We’ve never been in this situation before. Ever. Hence there is no economic model that can predict what will happen next. In fact no economist saw this coming:

If nobody saw this coming, then why take comfort in what everybody is saying at this stage?

This is what we’re faced with:

This is not to fear monger, but to state objective facts.

A prolonged decline in equities would certainly bring about a recession and if labor markets were to suddenly turn it may happen a lot sooner than anyone can imagine. Hence an end to the trade war may be absolutely mission critical. Yet big structural disagreements remain with no clear path to a resolution.

The system will aim to defend itself and it will do so with further rate cuts, currency interventions, and perhaps with a surprise end to the trade war. But reality is dawning and the bond market has been signaling this reality all year.

This is a very tricky environment for investors to navigate through.  History suggests there is time to take advantage of future rallies to prepare for the next recession and raise cash before a major market downturn does unfold. But global incoming data suggests that a global recession may be coming a lot sooner than anyone can previously anticipated and we’re finding ourselves in a situation where policy makers have a lot less ammunition at their disposal than during previous downturns. A sudden end to the trade deal may be imperative, without it there may be a lot less time than history suggests.

As it stands markets remain above last week’s lows, but have now again broken their 2019 up trend:

Will another magic rescue tweet or headline save the week again? To soon to tell, but technically the following can be noted:

The 2009 trend line remains broken. The 2016 trend line remains broken. The 2019 trend line appears broken. And the larger market continues to reside inside the range of a broadening top formation. As long as $ES can maintain a hold above the weekly 50MA bulls can take comfort in future oversold rallies to come. See a sustained break of the weekly 50MA and the bull thesis is in serious technical trouble and perhaps only a China trade deal can save it.

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“He’s Doing The Right Thing”: Iowa Farmers Back Trump, Brush Off Trade War

American farmers haven’t exactly loved the Trump farm bailouts; many have complained that they have so far favored the biggest farmers. But that hasn’t changed their minds about supporting President Trump in 2020.

Even as the trade war with China crushes the ag sector, farmers in Iowa – a critical swing state, and one that is currently crawling with Democratic Primary contenders who attended the Iowa State Fair – still overwhelmingly support President Trump, according to an informal survey of farmers carried out by the Wall Street Journal.

Iowa Farmers – who are among the largest producers of corn, soybeans and pork – largely said they appreciated the bailouts, even if they didn’t entirely compensate for trade-war-related losses, and applauded President Trump for at least trying to do the right thing and make sure the US is treated fairly.

“He’s doing a good job and trying to make sure we’re treated fairly,” said Kevin Prevo, a fifth-generation farmer who raises corn, soybeans, cattle and hogs on about 1,400 acres near Bloomfield, Iowa.

Mr. Prevo showed zero uncertainty when asked whether he would vote for Mr. Trump again in 2020. “You bet,” he said.

China said earlier this month that it would suspend all imports of US agricultural goods, then the US said it would delay tariffs on some Chinese consumer goods to – as Wilbur Ross explained on CNBC Wednesday morning – avoid hitting American consumers in the pocketbook during the holiday shopping season.

Democrats have been struggling to convince farmers that Trump doesn’t have their best interests at heart. Pete Buttigieg said during an interview at the fairgrounds on Tuesday that Trump’s actions have hurt farmers in Iowa and elsewhere.

“There’s no evidence to me that this is part of an actual plan,” he said. “I think he just poked them in the eye to see what would happen, and what happened is they retaliated.”

But those words unfortunately didn’t resonate.

“He’s doing the right thing,” said Leo Balk, a fifth-generation farmer who raises corn, soybeans, oats, beef and dairy cows on about 300 acres near New Hampton, Iowa. “It hurts, but his concept is absolutely right.”

Trump has hinted at another farm bailout as well: He’s already invested billions of dollars in retaining farmers’ loyalty. Why stop now?

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2H7WAaT Tyler Durden

5 Things Every Trader Needs To Know About Rates

Submitted by Monday Morning Macro

From what’s priced in to curve inversion to term premium. Here are the 5 things every trader needs to know about the rates market…

5. What’s Priced In

-50bps is now the base case for September.

Here are the probabilities that the options market is assigning to the September FOMC, currently.

  • No change: 2.5%

  • -25bps: 19.7%

  • -50bps: 65.6%

  • -75bps or more: 12.2%

One brief note on methodology: the CME “FedTool” has a similar probability tree but it calculates the odds using binary Markov chains. In a nutshell, this means that they only allow for 1 of 2 outcomes to be altered at a given meeting. If you think the Fed could either stay on hold, cut by 25, cut by 50, or more (which the options market is telling us is a possibility – why else would somebody be wanting to pay anything at all for something like the EDU9 98.50 calls?), then a binary chained decision tree isn’t correct. Look closely at the CME tool, they show zero probability for an “on hold” result. Even in this cynical world of second guessing policymakers, we should know that can’t be correct with more than a month still to go…

4. Curve Inversion

Read any sell-side literature & you’ll quickly find that the shape of the curve is one of the most widely followed “recession predictors” available, where a flat curve indicates a higher likelihood of recession. When this flattening becomes so pronounced that the yield on the longer tenor falls below the yield on the shorter tenor, it’s referred to as inversion – something that’s happened only a handful of times. We’re now sitting at the most inverted levels in the last 30 years for the spot 2s/10s swaps curve. But, caution against extrapolating that into the meaningful “recession predictor” that the street seems to love.

Here’s the same curve, but in Treasury space (not swaps). This is the curve that you’ll hear pundits hyperventilating over whenever it dips below 0 (which it did, ever so briefly, this morning).

There is a difficult causality to unravel here, but the bottom line is that – while over very long term horizons, it may seem causal to NBER-defined “recessions” – there’s no clear linkage. Here’s the last 21 times the curve has seen a weekly close that caused 2s/10s to go from positive to inverted – along with the SPX return over the following month. There’s really nothing here.

3. Funding

One of the aspects of the financial crisis that was so devastating to the credit market was the fact that funding spreads experienced a seizure unlike anything they’d seen previously. Steps were taken in the aftermath to buttress the industry against this happening again, but we still see periodic flare-ups in funding markets that often precede meaningful volatility in other asset classes. The most popular measure of this to follow is the spread between bank borrowing rates (representing unsecured credit) & the overnight Fed rate (representing secured credit): LIBOR vs OIS, also referred to as FRA/OIS (FRA = forward rate agreement). When this spread widens, it indicates funding stress is present. The Dec 19 future associated with this spread is now at its widest levels since early February 2018.

We all know what happened after that to volatility in other asset classes.

2. Positioning

Hedge funds are more long the front-end of the interest rates market right now than at any historical point on record. Yes, rates are low – and the largest positions in the hedge fund community are setup to profit if they go even lower (yellow line shows net position). 

1. Negative Rates

Negative Rates are to 2019 what Beanie Babies were to the 90s. They might be great for price appreciation during times like these, but if you’re expecting them to return your love in the way, say, a “positive” yielding investment will – you’re sadly mistaken.

That all being said. Consider this for a moment. The 0% coupon German 10yr note currently yields about negative 0.70%. It hasn’t yielded more than positive 1% since 2014. But if you’d invested a million dollars in German 10yr bonds 6 months ago, you’d have made more in 6 months than you would make in interest on the US 10yr Treasury – from now until 2025.

The Federal Reserve tracks what’s called “Term Premium”. The best way to understand this is as a measure of what compensation you’re receiving (once you strip out all the effects of inflation & some other econometric factors) for owning Treasuries. This seems like a sensible measure to watch: if you’re getting 1.625% in interest for 10-year bonds, but the inflation rate is the same – then it’s not really all that much compensation you’re earning in the end.

Currently, we’re at -1.21%. That’s easily the lowest since the Fed started tracking this in 1960.

References: 

NYFRB: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term_premia.html
CME Group: https://cmegroup.quikstrike.net/User/QuikStrikeView.aspx
Bloomberg

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At Least 4 Philadelphia Cops Shot, SWAT On Scene

At least four Philadelphia police officers were shot in the city’s Nicetown section Wednesday afternoon, officials said, prompting a massive response to the largely residential North Philadelphia neighborhood.

NBC Philadelphia reports that at least one suspect is in custody, according to police. Officers continue to search for a possible second gunman. 

Frantic calls from responding officers came in around 4:30 p.m., according to audio obtained via Broadcastify. 

“Officer calls for everything you got. SWAT, long gun,” a law enforcement officer can be heard saying on the audio.

“I got an officer shot.”

Social media clips of the scene show the chaos unfold…

And SWAT are on scene…

Watch Live:

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Lawsuit Alleges CNN’s Don Lemon Forced Man To Smell His Genitals At Hamptons Dive Bar

A man named Dustin Hice is suing CNN anchor Don Lemon for assault, alleging that the anchor attacked him at a bar in the Hamptons last summer, accodring to Mediaite. 

Hice noticed Lemon at Sag Harbor dive bar Murf’s in July 2018, where he allegedly approached Lemon, “tried to get Mr. Lemon’s attention and offered to buy Mr. Lemon a drink,” the suit claims. The CNN host declined the drink, saying he was “just trying to have a good time.”

The lawsuit then alleges that Lemon approached Hice later in the night, “put his hand down the front of his own shorts, and vigorously rubbed his genitalia, removed his hand and shoved his index and middle fingers in Plaintiff’s moustache and under Plaintiff’s nose.”

 

While shoving his fingers in Hice’s face, Lemon allegedly asked him “Do you like pussy or dick?”

Hice says in the lawsuit he left the bar “shocked and humiliated.”

CNN claims the lawsuit is a product of bias. A CNN spokesperson said: “The plaintiff in this lawsuit has previously displayed a pattern of contempt for CNN on his social media accounts. This claim follows his unsuccessful threats and demands for an exorbitant amount of money from Don Lemon. Don categorically denies these claims and this matter does not merit any further comment at this time.”

Hice’s Twitter account appears to have been deleted and an Instagram post from January 2017 showed him in front of CNN heaquarters with the caption: “touring the #CNN center today…or as #Trump would say ‘the home of Fake News’ lol.”

Hice’s lawyer pushed back on CNN’s statement, saying: “The assertion that Mr. Hice would put himself through the painful process of filing a sexual assault lawsuit against his attacker all because he doesn’t like a cable TV station is ludicrous. Rather, he took down his social media accounts on the day he filed the lawsuit against Don Lemon because he’s a private citizen and wants to protect himself from CNN’s heavy-handed tactics.”

Sources close to Lemon said that Hice had demanded $1.5 million in exchange for not filing the suit. Lemon refused, claiming he had done nothing wrong.

The suit says Hice was left with “feelings of shame, humiliation, anxiety, anger, and guilt,” that affected his work in the Hamptons, especially after word of the attack spread throughout the area, causing locals to humiliate and mock him at the bar he worked at. 

You can read the full complaint here. 

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Extreme Climate Change Has Arrived in America, Says the Washington Post

The Washington Post‘s front page features “2°C: BEYOND THE LIMIT”—an article detailing changes in temperature trends in the U.S. since 1895. The 2-degree Celsius benchmark is taken from the Paris Agreement, a multinational pledge that seeks to keep Earth’s average temperature increases “well below” 2 degrees Celsius by the year 2100.

Using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration temperature data across the Lower 48 states and 3,107 counties, the Post reports that major areas in the U.S. are nearing or have already crossed that 2-degree Celsius mark. 

The article opens with a vignette noting that ice no longer reliably forms on Lake Hopatcong in New Jersey. As the Post notes, the average temperature in New Jersey has climbed by close to 2 degrees Celsius since 1895—double the average for the Lower 48 states.

So how did the Post derive its U.S. temperature trend figures?

We calculated annual mean temperature trends in each state and county in the Lower 48 states using linear regression—analyzing both annual average temperatures and temperatures for the three-month winter season (December, January, and February). While not the only approach for analyzing temperature changes over time, this is a widely used method.

As the Post notes, this is not the only way to analyze temperature changes over time. As it happens, a team of researchers from Boise State and Clemson University published an article on trends in extreme U.S. temperatures in the Journal of Climate in 2014 that used a different method for analyzing U.S. temperature trends between 1890 and 2010. For the analysis, the researchers used temperature data taken from the three-quarters of weather stations in the U.S. Historical Climate Network that have nearly complete records. Instead of averaging, they tracked the trends in the maximum and minimum daily temperatures at each station.

What they found is that for maximum temperatures (typically during the day and in summer) 583 of the 923 stations had negative trends with a “warming hole” in the eastern United States that many other researchers had previously noted.

On the map, the color shades run from bright red (the most warming) to deep blue (the most cooling). In aggregate, the researchers report, maximum temperatures are decreasing in the eastern United States, with the exception of New England. In contrast, the western U.S. maximum temperatures are slightly warming for the most part.

What about minimum temperatures, e.g., those that typically occur during the night and in winter? With the exception of two localized pockets in the Southeast and Colorado, the researchers note, cooling is sparse. The Southeast is the most significantly cooling location; confidence that minimum temperatures are warming is comparatively large for the western United States, northern Midwest, and New England.

Overall, the researchers conclude that the U.S. average trend for maximum temperatures is negative -0.468°C per century, while the average trend for minimum temperatures is strongly positive at +1.646°C per century. The fact that winters in the U.S. are becoming warmer explains why fewer lakes like Lake Hopatcong are freezing over.

On the Washington Post temperature trend map, north-central Minnesota is colored bright red, indicating that temperatures in the region have already exceeded the dire 2°C threshold. It appears that Cass Lake is located there, so I decided to check out the average temperatures for that area.

Since most of the warming is occurring during the winter, let’s look at average January temperatures: In that frigid month, the average high temperature is 18°F (-8°C) and the average low is -5°F (-21°C). Let’s neglect the fact that the way the Washington Post calculated the trends in that area suggests that these averages are already higher due to climate change. Nevertheless, adding an extra 2°C of warming would boost the current winter high average up to 21°F and the average low to -0.4°F.

The map from Journal of Climate researchers shows essentially no increase in maximum temperatures in that part of Minnesota but it does show an increase in minimum temperatures there. Assuming that extra warming is largely channeled into nighttime lows, that suggests a 2°C increase during July would raise the average nighttime low from 56 to 59.5°F.

As the rise in minimum temperatures indicates, climate change in the U.S. is definitely happening. But unless you are a fan of winter (a concept that I personally do not understand) the extremes that most folks will worry about are maximum summertime temperatures.

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Extreme Climate Change Has Arrived in America, Says the Washington Post

The Washington Post‘s front page features “2°C: BEYOND THE LIMIT”—an article detailing changes in temperature trends in the U.S. since 1895. The 2-degree Celsius benchmark is taken from the Paris Agreement, a multinational pledge that seeks to keep Earth’s average temperature increases “well below” 2 degrees Celsius by the year 2100.

Using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration temperature data across the Lower 48 states and 3,107 counties, the Post reports that major areas in the U.S. are nearing or have already crossed that 2-degree Celsius mark. 

The article opens with a vignette noting that ice no longer reliably forms on Lake Hopatcong in New Jersey. As the Post notes, the average temperature in New Jersey has climbed by close to 2 degrees Celsius since 1895—double the average for the Lower 48 states.

So how did the Post derive its U.S. temperature trend figures?

We calculated annual mean temperature trends in each state and county in the Lower 48 states using linear regression—analyzing both annual average temperatures and temperatures for the three-month winter season (December, January, and February). While not the only approach for analyzing temperature changes over time, this is a widely used method.

As the Post notes, this is not the only way to analyze temperature changes over time. As it happens, a team of researchers from Boise State and Clemson University published an article on trends in extreme U.S. temperatures in the Journal of Climate in 2014 that used a different method for analyzing U.S. temperature trends between 1890 and 2010. For the analysis, the researchers used temperature data taken from the three-quarters of weather stations in the U.S. Historical Climate Network that have nearly complete records. Instead of averaging, they tracked the trends in the maximum and minimum daily temperatures at each station.

What they found is that for maximum temperatures (typically during the day and in summer) 583 of the 923 stations had negative trends with a “warming hole” in the eastern United States that many other researchers had previously noted.

On the map, the color shades run from bright red (the most warming) to deep blue (the most cooling). In aggregate, the researchers report, maximum temperatures are decreasing in the eastern United States, with the exception of New England. In contrast, the western U.S. maximum temperatures are slightly warming for the most part.

What about minimum temperatures, e.g., those that typically occur during the night and in winter? With the exception of two localized pockets in the Southeast and Colorado, the researchers note, cooling is sparse. The Southeast is the most significantly cooling location; confidence that minimum temperatures are warming is comparatively large for the western United States, northern Midwest, and New England.

Overall, the researchers conclude that the U.S. average trend for maximum temperatures is negative -0.468°C per century, while the average trend for minimum temperatures is strongly positive at +1.646°C per century. The fact that winters in the U.S. are becoming warmer explains why fewer lakes like Lake Hopatcong are freezing over.

On the Washington Post temperature trend map, north-central Minnesota is colored bright red, indicating that temperatures in the region have already exceeded the dire 2°C threshold. It appears that Cass Lake is located there, so I decided to check out the average temperatures for that area.

Since most of the warming is occurring during the winter, let’s look at average January temperatures: In that frigid month, the average high temperature is 18°F (-8°C) and the average low is -5°F (-21°C). Let’s neglect the fact that the way the Washington Post calculated the trends in that area suggests that these averages are already higher due to climate change. Nevertheless, adding an extra 2°C of warming would boost the current winter high average up to 21°F and the average low to -0.4°F.

The map from Journal of Climate researchers shows essentially no increase in maximum temperatures in that part of Minnesota but it does show an increase in minimum temperatures there. Assuming that extra warming is largely channeled into nighttime lows, that suggests a 2°C increase during July would raise the average nighttime low from 56 to 59.5°F.

As the rise in minimum temperatures indicates, climate change in the U.S. is definitely happening. But unless you are a fan of winter (a concept that I personally do not understand) the extremes that most folks will worry about are maximum summertime temperatures.

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Sarah Silverman Has Been Canceled

Sarah Silverman is canceled. The actress and comedian told Bill Simmons that she was recently fired from a movie after a picture surfaced from a 2007 episode of The Sarah Silverman Show in which she wore blackface.

Silverman acknowledges that it was wrong. The costuming choice was part of a sketch in which she and a scene partner sought to explore the complexities of racial identity by comedically probing whether or not it was harder to be black or Jewish. But it didn’t sit well with her after the fact, and she said she will spend “the rest of [her] life” trying to make it right.

That wasn’t good enough for the team on this new film. Silverman didn’t elaborate on her firing other than to say she was kicked off the project the night before it was to begin. But she did have choice words for the emergence of cancel culture, calling it a “perversion”—one that is pushed primarily by the left and used by the right when convenient.

“It’s like, if you’re not on board, if you say the wrong thing, if you had a tweet once, everyone is, like, throwing the first stone,” Silverman said. “It’s really, ‘Look how righteous I am and now I’m going to press refresh all day long to see how many likes I get in my righteousness.'”

And that righteousness, see says, leaves no room for growth. Instead of challenging people to be better, cancel culture boots people from polite society without the opportunity for explanation or redemption. Silverman, meanwhile, sees herself as someone who has changed with the times and thus deserves a second chance.

“There was so much I didn’t know,” she said. “I knew there was racism, I knew that there was and I wanted to illuminate that in some way in comedy. But I didn’t know that cops were killing black people and unarmed black teenagers on the regular, and that changed me forever.”

That Silverman has legitimately learned from her mistakes is most evident in the fact that it was Silverman who drew attention to it during an interview with GQ last year.

“I don’t stand by the blackface sketch. I’m horrified by it, and I can’t erase it. I can only be changed by it and move on,” she told the magazine. “That was such liberal-bubble stuff, where I actually thought it was dealing with racism by using racism. I don’t get joy in that anymore. It makes me feel yucky. All I can say is that I’m not that person anymore.”

On Simmons’ podcast, the actress also lamented right-wing figures who adopt cancel culture as a means to get revenge on the left. She mentioned that offensive comments from a comedy routine have been taken out of context by her foes as if she’d used them in a “press conference,” and noted that the proceeding outrage inspired a Florida pastor to call for her death.

An outspoken organizer and activist for left-leaning causes, Silverman is perhaps an unlikely victim of cancel culture. She has consistently tried to rally civic engagement around Democratic politicians, particularly as one of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I–Vt.) more high-profile supporters during the 2016 election. But Silverman’s recent brush with righteous intolerance is a reminder that the mob does not discriminate. One strike, and you’re out.

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Sarah Silverman Has Been Canceled

Sarah Silverman is canceled. The actress and comedian told Bill Simmons that she was recently fired from a movie after a picture surfaced from a 2007 episode of The Sarah Silverman Show in which she wore blackface.

Silverman acknowledges that it was wrong. The costuming choice was part of a sketch in which she and a scene partner sought to explore the complexities of racial identity by comedically probing whether or not it was harder to be black or Jewish. But it didn’t sit well with her after the fact, and she said she will spend “the rest of [her] life” trying to make it right.

That wasn’t good enough for the team on this new film. Silverman didn’t elaborate on her firing other than to say she was kicked off the project the night before it was to begin. But she did have choice words for the emergence of cancel culture, calling it a “perversion”—one that is pushed primarily by the left and used by the right when convenient.

“It’s like, if you’re not on board, if you say the wrong thing, if you had a tweet once, everyone is, like, throwing the first stone,” Silverman said. “It’s really, ‘Look how righteous I am and now I’m going to press refresh all day long to see how many likes I get in my righteousness.'”

And that righteousness, see says, leaves no room for growth. Instead of challenging people to be better, cancel culture boots people from polite society without the opportunity for explanation or redemption. Silverman, meanwhile, sees herself as someone who has changed with the times and thus deserves a second chance.

“There was so much I didn’t know,” she said. “I knew there was racism, I knew that there was and I wanted to illuminate that in some way in comedy. But I didn’t know that cops were killing black people and unarmed black teenagers on the regular, and that changed me forever.”

That Silverman has legitimately learned from her mistakes is most evident in the fact that it was Silverman who drew attention to it during an interview with GQ last year.

“I don’t stand by the blackface sketch. I’m horrified by it, and I can’t erase it. I can only be changed by it and move on,” she told the magazine. “That was such liberal-bubble stuff, where I actually thought it was dealing with racism by using racism. I don’t get joy in that anymore. It makes me feel yucky. All I can say is that I’m not that person anymore.”

On Simmons’ podcast, the actress also lamented right-wing figures who adopt cancel culture as a means to get revenge on the left. She mentioned that offensive comments from a comedy routine have been taken out of context by her foes as if she’d used them in a “press conference,” and noted that the proceeding outrage inspired a Florida pastor to call for her death.

An outspoken organizer and activist for left-leaning causes, Silverman is perhaps an unlikely victim of cancel culture. She has consistently tried to rally civic engagement around Democratic politicians, particularly as one of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I–Vt.) more high-profile supporters during the 2016 election. But Silverman’s recent brush with righteous intolerance is a reminder that the mob does not discriminate. One strike, and you’re out.

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The Big Pharma Takeover Of Medical Cannabis

Submitted by Visual Capitalist

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless companies.

Today’s infographic comes to us from CB2 Insights, and explores how and why the notorious Big Pharma are interested in the nascent cannabis industry.

Who are “Big Pharma”?

The term refers to some of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world, considered especially influential as a group. To give a sense of their sheer size, the market cap of the top 10 Big Pharma companies is $1.7 trillion—Johnson & Johnson being the largest, with a market capitalization of $374 billion.

So far, Big Pharma has watched the cannabis industry from the sidelines, deterred by regulatory concerns. What we are seeing now is the sleeping giant’s takeover slowly intensifying as more patents, partnerships, and sponsored clinical trials come to fruition.

Could Cannabis be Sold Over the Counter?

The cannabis plant has been used in medicine for 6,000 years. However, there is still considerable debate around the role it plays in healthcare today. There are currently almost 400 active and completed clinical trials worldwide surrounding cannabidiol (CBD), a type of cannabinoid that makes up 40% of the cannabis plant’s extract.

Cannabis relies on CBD’s therapeutic properties, and recent studies suggest it may be useful in combating a variety of health conditions, such as:

  • Epilepsy
  • Schizophrenia
  • Multiple sclerosis
  • Migraines
  • Arthritis
  • Cancer side effects

As of 2019, 33 states and the District of Columbia have legalized cannabis for medical use. Its potential for pain management has led some experts to recommend it as an alternative to addictive painkillers, with one study of 13 states showing opiate-related deaths decreasing by over 33% in the six years since medical cannabis was legalized.

As the industry evolves, data is becoming increasingly important in understanding the potential of cannabis—both as a viable medical treatment, and as a recreational product. The shift away from anecdotal evidence towards big data will inform future policies, and give rise to a new era of consumer education.

Big Pharma’s Foray into Cannabis

Further legalization of cannabis will challenge Big Pharma’s bottom line, and poach more than $4 billion from pharma sales annually. In fact, medical cannabis sales are projected to reach $5.9 billion in 2019, from an estimated 24 million patients.

Seven of Canada’s top 10 cannabis patent holders are major multinational pharmaceutical companies, a trend that is not unique to Canada.

It comes as no surprise that many pharmaceutical giants have already formed strong partnerships with cannabis companies, such as Novartis and Tilray, who will develop and distribute medical cannabis together in legal jurisdictions around the world.

Data is the Missing Link

While the body of knowledge about the many uses of cannabis continue to grow, clinical evidence is key for widespread adoption.

Products backed by data will be a defining criteria for major companies to come into the market en masse. And ultimately, Big Pharma’s entry could accelerate public understanding and confidence in cannabis as a viable option for a range of ailments, and mark the next major milestone for the industry.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/31D61qz Tyler Durden