Comey Avoids DOJ Prosecution On Memo Leak; FISA Abuse Still On The Table

Former FBI Director James Comey will avoid prosecution after illegally leaking personal memos in the hopes of instigating the special counsel’s investigation into the 2016 US election, as reported yesterday by The Hill‘s John Solomon and confirmed today by Fox News

According to Solomon, DOJ Inspector General (IG) Michael Horowitz referred Comey for possible prosecution under laws governing the handling of classified information, however Attorney General William Barr has declined to prosecute – as the DOJ does not believe they have enough evidence of Comey’s intent to violate the law. 

“Everyone at the DOJ involved in the decision said it wasn’t a close call,” an official told Fox News. “They all thought this could not be prosecuted.”

That said, it’s important to note that this decision was the result of a ‘carve-out’ investigation separate of the IG probe on FISA abuse

The Conservative Treehouse lays out the situation: 

This is NOT the Inspector General Michael Horowitz report on DOJ and FBI FISA abuse.

This is a carve-out.

From the outset it was reported and confirmed that U.S. Attorney John Huber was assigned to assist Inspector General Michael Horowitz.  Huber’s job was to stand-by in case the IG carved out a particular concern, discovered during his investigation, that might involve criminal conduct.

Earlier this week Matt Whitaker said: “John Huber is reviewing anything related to Comey’s memos and the like.

Put the two data points together and what you realize is that during the OIG review of potential DOJ and FBI FISA abuse… IG Horowitz investigated the Comey Memo’s and then passed that specific issue along to John Huber for DOJ review.

The IG criminal referral for the James Comey memo leaking was a carve-out sent to U.S. Attorney John Huber.

This is not the inspector general report on DOJ and FBI FISA abuse.  This is an IG report carved out of the larger investigation. Conservative Treehouse

In short, we will first see an IG report just covering Comey, with a more comprehensive report to follow on FISA abuse. 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2MyZrgn Tyler Durden

Carleton College Suspended a Student for Drunken Sex. He Appealed. Then They Expelled Him.

Should continuing to assert your innocence be seen as a sign of guilt? After issuing a three-semester suspension to football player “John Doe” for sexual assault, Carleton College in Minnesota gave him the option of appealing the verdict. He did so, to no avail.

Then the dean of students wrote to Doe that “the fact you continue to assert that it was okay to engage in sexual activity with a person in [Jane Doe’s] condition is deeply troubling.” John’s suspension was upgraded to a permanent expulsion.

That’s just one of many troubling claims made in Doe’s lawsuit against Carleton College, which was filed in U.S. District Court earlier this month. John alleges that investigators violated his due process rights, ignored evidence that undercut his accuser’s claims, and evinced bias against him at all stages of the process.

The lawsuit stems from the events of April 28, 2017, when John, Jane, and many other students received invitations to join a secret society. They were told to meet at a specific place on campus at 2:00 a.m., where the members of the society instructed them to consume copious amounts of alcohol and then cover the president’s house in toilet paper. On the way to the house, the lawsuit claims, Jane stopped John, whom she had just met, and began kissing him and then touching him below the belt. According to John’s lawsuit, he eventually grew uncomfortable with the public nature of their contact, and suggested they go back to his dorm.

What followed was a sloppy drunken hookup—John vomited both before and after they had sex, and Jane vomited after. But in John’s telling, Jane repeatedly, verbally consented to it—indeed, the whole thing had been her idea. If Jane was an incapacitated victim, then so was John.

By 6:00 a.m., John had to go to football practice. He told Jane she could sleep in his dorm room, and wear any of his clothes. A few minutes after he left, Jane stumbled out of the dorm room wearing nothing but John’s T-shirt and her underwear. She encountered a random male student, and asked to sleep in his bed. Eventually, the authorities were called out of concern for Jane’s well-being, according to John’s lawsuit.

Campus security escorted Jane back to her dorm but decided to call her an ambulance. According to the lawsuit, security personnel “found her alert and oriented” but unable to correctly answer certain questions. She claimed to be a member of a secret society, “like a frat,” which confused the officers, since Carleton doesn’t have any fraternities. Jane vomited on the way to the hospital and “seemed remorseful.”

As Jane sobered up, she became concerned that she had been raped, according to the lawsuit. Later that day, after receiving assurances that she would not face sanctions for reckless underage drinking, she filed a sexual misconduct complaint against John.

County prosecutors also filed criminal charges against John, but these were eventually dropped. The Carleton proceedings were adjudicated under the auspices of Title IX, the gender equality statute that looms large in campus sexual misconduct trials thanks to aggressive guidance from the Obama-era Education Department. John’s lawsuit argues that he had no shot at a fair hearing, since the entire matter was handled by just two administrators: one who produced a report based on the evidence she had gathered, and another who passed judgment.

John was found responsible, and he was given five days to appeal the verdict to the Community Board on Sexual Misconduct. He did so. Prior to the hearing, he was finally allowed to review the administration’s report on the dispute, which contained the Title IX officer’s characterization of interviews with witnesses but not the transcripts of the actual interviews. John was also concerned that key text messages, which portrayed him in a favorable light, were not included in the report.

At the actual hearing, John was told that he could not introduce questions to be asked of Jane, who was questioned separately. He was also told that “witnesses would not be necessary at the hearing, as he would not be allowed to present any.” Unsurprisingly, the committee confirmed that he was responsible for sexual misconduct. After it suspended him, John appealed the decision—as did Jane, who considered it too lenient.

In his appeal, John argued that the committee had not had access to all relevant evidence when making its decision and that “the sanction is inconsistent with the seriousness of the offense based upon the facts alleged.” This apparently irked Dean of Students Carolyn Livingston, who denied John’s appeal. She went so far as to agree with Jane that the punishment was too lenient in light of the fact that John had persisted in asserting his innocence. As a result, John was expelled.

The lawsuit demands that Carleton College pay John $75,000 in damages stemming from mental anguish, deprivation of due process and education opportunities, and loss of future career prospects. It will be interesting to watch the college’s response to these charges.

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Number Of Migrants Reaching US Border Down 39% Since May, Hitting Five-Month Low

The number of migrants reaching the US-Mexico border hit a five-month low in July following the deployment of the National Guard to address the problem of illegal migration, according to Mexico’s top diplomat.

Speaking with reporters on Tuesday, Secretary of Foreign Affairs Marcelo Ebrard announced a 39% drop in migrants traveling through Mexico towards the United States since May, when there were 144,278 migrants vs. 87,648 in July. This marks the lowest number since February, when 76,533 migrants were recorded, according to the Associated Press

Ebrard said the drop is the result of greater Mexican enforcement of its immigration laws, as well as investment in job creation in Central America.

Ebrard said Mexico would hold a conference soon to attract international donors for a Central America development plan.

He said Mexico would not provide shelters for all the migrants sent back to Mexico by the United States while awaiting resolution of their U.S. asylum requests.

That has become an issue in the Mexican border city of Nuevo Laredo, where hundreds of migrants have been bused from the dangerous border town to the city of Monterrey, and simply left at a bus station. –Associated Press

According to Ebrard, the problem of overcrowding in cities with migrants waiting to file asylum claims with the US has declined in some areas. 

Marcelo Ebrard shakes hands with Donald Trump

“People shouldn’t think that at all points along the border we are going to receive more migrants every day,” he said. “In Tijuana there has been a very, very, very big drop. In Yuma, on our side in Sonora, in Ciudad Juarez, there has been a significant decrease.”

According to a poll released earlier this month by local daily Reforma and the Washington Post, 64% of Mexicans think migrants are a burden on the country, while 51% agree with the decision to use the National Guard to combat illegal migration.

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Carleton College Suspended a Student for Drunken Sex. He Appealed. Then They Expelled Him.

Should continuing to assert your innocence be seen as a sign of guilt? After issuing a three-semester suspension to football player “John Doe” for sexual assault, Carleton College in Minnesota gave him the option of appealing the verdict. He did so, to no avail.

Then the dean of students wrote to Doe that “the fact you continue to assert that it was okay to engage in sexual activity with a person in [Jane Doe’s] condition is deeply troubling.” John’s suspension was upgraded to a permanent expulsion.

That’s just one of many troubling claims made in Doe’s lawsuit against Carleton College, which was filed in U.S. District Court earlier this month. John alleges that investigators violated his due process rights, ignored evidence that undercut his accuser’s claims, and evinced bias against him at all stages of the process.

The lawsuit stems from the events of April 28, 2017, when John, Jane, and many other students received invitations to join a secret society. They were told to meet at a specific place on campus at 2:00 a.m., where the members of the society instructed them to consume copious amounts of alcohol and then cover the president’s house in toilet paper. On the way to the house, the lawsuit claims, Jane stopped John, whom she had just met, and began kissing him and then touching him below the belt. According to John’s lawsuit, he eventually grew uncomfortable with the public nature of their contact, and suggested they go back to his dorm.

What followed was a sloppy drunken hookup—John vomited both before and after they had sex, and Jane vomited after. But in John’s telling, Jane repeatedly, verbally consented to it—indeed, the whole thing had been her idea. If Jane was an incapacitated victim, then so was John.

By 6:00 a.m., John had to go to football practice. He told Jane she could sleep in his dorm room, and wear any of his clothes. A few minutes after he left, Jane stumbled out of the dorm room wearing nothing but John’s T-shirt and her underwear. She encountered a random male student, and asked to sleep in his bed. Eventually, the authorities were called out of concern for Jane’s well-being, according to John’s lawsuit.

Campus security escorted Jane back to her dorm but decided to call her an ambulance. According to the lawsuit, security personnel “found her alert and oriented” but unable to correctly answer certain questions. She claimed to be a member of a secret society, “like a frat,” which confused the officers, since Carleton doesn’t have any fraternities. Jane vomited on the way to the hospital and “seemed remorseful.”

As Jane sobered up, she became concerned that she had been raped, according to the lawsuit. Later that day, after receiving assurances that she would not face sanctions for reckless underage drinking, she filed a sexual misconduct complaint against John.

County prosecutors also filed criminal charges against John, but these were eventually dropped. The Carleton proceedings were adjudicated under the auspices of Title IX, the gender equality statute that looms large in campus sexual misconduct trials thanks to aggressive guidance from the Obama-era Education Department. John’s lawsuit argues that he had no shot at a fair hearing, since the entire matter was handled by just two administrators: one who produced a report based on the evidence she had gathered, and another who passed judgment.

John was found responsible, and he was given five days to appeal the verdict to the Community Board on Sexual Misconduct. He did so. Prior to the hearing, he was finally allowed to review the administration’s report on the dispute, which contained the Title IX officer’s characterization of interviews with witnesses but not the transcripts of the actual interviews. John was also concerned that key text messages, which portrayed him in a favorable light, were not included in the report.

At the actual hearing, John was told that he could not introduce questions to be asked of Jane, who was questioned separately. He was also told that “witnesses would not be necessary at the hearing, as he would not be allowed to present any.” Unsurprisingly, the committee confirmed that he was responsible for sexual misconduct. After it suspended him, John appealed the decision—as did Jane, who considered it too lenient.

In his appeal, John argued that the committee had not had access to all relevant evidence when making its decision and that “the sanction is inconsistent with the seriousness of the offense based upon the facts alleged.” This apparently irked Dean of Students Carolyn Livingston, who denied John’s appeal. She went so far as to agree with Jane that the punishment was too lenient in light of the fact that John had persisted in asserting his innocence. As a result, John was expelled.

The lawsuit demands that Carleton College pay John $75,000 in damages stemming from mental anguish, deprivation of due process and education opportunities, and loss of future career prospects. It will be interesting to watch the college’s response to these charges.

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Thanks To Jay Powell – We’re All FX Traders Now!

Authored by Richard Breslow via Bloomberg,

There are clearly a lot of disgruntled traders out there. They’ll get over it. As soon as their positions get back to where they want them and make some decisions about how much they, as members of the collective group of investors, want to be engaged in the tricky month of August. This will happen sooner than thought. Although, ironically enough, there will be an ongoing yearning to receive greater clarity from Fed speakers. Which is the last thing anyone should expect. I suspect market commentators will take longer to regain their equilibrium.

It’s probably overly-harsh to rake Chairman Jerome Powell too much over the coals for a less-than-spectacular performance at the press conference. He didn’t have a lot to work with. He had to be the voice of an obviously divided committee. The meeting minutes will be more than anxiously anticipated. Try not to be disappointed. Events could make them out of date very rapidly.

But, make no mistake, the short-lived market mayhem wasn’t just an overreaction to the “mid-cycle adjustment” line. That was merely an unfortunate necessity to appease the dissenters and fence-sitters. And, perhaps, a reminder to others that he views only financial conditions indexes as having the right to threaten their institutional independence.

The scramble was caused by having too many traders skew their books in response to the recent comments made by New York Fed President John Williams. The subsequent clarification fell on many a deaf ear.

He slipped up. But it wasn’t by letting the cat out of the bag. And those with positions who got their game theory wrong all had to try to right themselves using the same pool of late-day liquidity. A very small taste of what can happen when everyone is the same way around.

Now, traders will have to decide if they want to further liquidate their marginal positions, sit tight or add at better levels. And, while it is comforting to assume option number two will be the clear choice, we first need to see how this dollar break-out plays out. Especially as it broke through resistance on the last day of the month. Technical analysts will be salivating. In any case, we all know where the stops will be if it corrects back lower.

While the damage done in equities, fixed income, credit and commodities has been minimal, if over-hyped, they won’t be able to indefinitely ignore an ever strengthening dollar. Emerging markets look to be the most immediately affected and are definitely looking queasy. They should be front and center, along with the dollar, on all traders’ screens. No matter what you trade. Because we all are in never-ending search for tells and canaries.

Should the dollar continue on its way, it will ultimately affect everything else. Perhaps even your central bank. Not to mention, there are an awful lot of portfolios structured around the assumption of a weaker dollar. Throw in a growing dollar funding squeeze and things could get very interesting… in the Chinese curse sense of the word. When the currency gets up a true head of steam, it takes a lot more than simple verbal intervention to turn it around. Which is why this is all unlikely to be a one-day phenomenon.

Meanwhile, there will be some important economic releases over the next two days. And while it is tempting to think they have been put on the back burner given yesterday’s events, that couldn’t be further from the truth. The second guessing game aside, the dollar is in play. Which means it will respond to the results. And how it does react will necessarily influence the portfolio allocation decisions that will define trading imperatives across the whole spectrum of assets.

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Brickbats: August/September 2019

In Johnson County, Kansas, a 5-year-old student hid inside a bookshelf in the Bluejacket-Flint Elementary School library. A teacher named Crystal Smith found the girl, angrily pulled her out, waited for another adult who was present to turn away, and, video footage shows, kicked the student in the back.

Former Iowa Department of Human Services social worker Chelsie Gray has been charged with three counts of felony perjury for giving false testimony while recommending to a judge that he remove four children from their mother and father and terminate the couple’s parental rights.

A Ladue, Missouri, police officer has been charged with second-degree assault for shooting an alleged shoplifter who was attempting to flee the scene. An attorney for Officer Julie Crews said she thought she was drawing a Taser, not her gun.

A new law in New South Wales, Australia, could force the Lithgow Small Arms Factory Museum to destroy or sell 70 percent of its collection. The law requires all pistols and many other types of firearms to be rendered permanently inoperable. That would require parts to be welded together or a steel rod to be inserted into the barrel of a gun and welded in place. Museum officials say that if they cannot get the law overturned, they will sell the collection overseas.

When Jesus Reyes and his family arrived at the pavilion at a Bexar County, Texas, park that they’d reserved for Easter Sunday, they found Precinct 2 Constable Michelle Barrientes Vela there, in uniform, claiming she had reserved the pavilion. After a park manager confirmed that she had not, Vela and her group moved to a nearby barbecue pit. She then insisted that Reyes pay her $300 for security, which he did.

A judge in British Columbia, Canada, has found Patrick Henry Grzelak guilty of violating the province’s “hands free” driving law, even though Grzelak wasn’t holding his phone. In fact, the phone was properly stored and had a dead battery. But Grzelak had his earbuds in, and they were plugged into the phone. Justice Brent Adair said that makes them part of the phone and that Grzelak was therefore in violation of the law.

An 80-year-old woman in Bootle, England, was handed a 50-pound ($65) fine by code enforcement for walking her dog on a leash that was too long. The officers who cited her warned her the fine would increase to 2,500 pounds ($3,200) if she did not pay it within two weeks. After local media picked up the story, the local council dropped the charge.

Starting in January, the state of Washington will require booster seats for all children until they reach 4 feet, 9 inches in height when they are traveling in vehicles. That will cover many kids until they are around age 12.

Officials with the Pearland, Texas, Independent School District say an administrator has been placed on leave for mishandling a disciplinary action. A student showed up at Berry Miller Junior High School with an M shaved into his hair, a violation of the school dress code. The administrator told the boy he had three options: call his mother, receive disciplinary action, or color it in. The boy ended up with the M colored in with a marker. School officials say that shouldn’t have happened.

More than 3 million Californians may have to go back to the Department of Motor Vehicles to get new driver’s licenses. The federal Department of Homeland Security sent a letter to Gov. Gavin Newsom telling him the new licenses do not comply with Real ID requirements because the state did not adequately verify the residences of applicants.

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“Tourism Shouldn’t Be Politicized”: Taiwan’s President Slams Beijing’s New Travel Ban

Beijing ratcheted up tensions with Taipei this week by scrapping a program that allowed tourists from 47 mainland cities to visit Taiwan, a sign that President Xi’s plans to “re-unify” Taiwan with the mainland is continuing amid a wave of pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.

China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism said in a statement on Wednesday that a ban on solo travelers visiting Taiwan would take effect on Aug. 1, effectively banning all individual leisure travel from mainland China to Taiwan, though business travelers and tour groups from the mainland will still be able to visit the island.

The decision has drawn accusations of political interference from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen.

President Tsai

According to CNN, the individual visit program was piloted in June 2011 in three cities: Beijing, Shanghai and Xiamen. Soon after, it was expanded to include residents of 44 additional cities. It was intended to breed closer ties between the mainland and its ‘rogue province’. But last month, Beijing released a new defense policy paper – the first since the beginning of President Xi’s second term – where it accused Western powers of interfering with Beijing’s relationship with Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Since the beginning of the year, President Xi has amped up his rhetoric about Taiwan, claiming that one of his top priorities is to oversee the reunification that Beijing has always insisted would one day occur. These remarks have incensed President Tsai, who has vowed that the Taiwanese people wouldn’t tolerate reunification, while buying billions of dollars of tanks and other military equipment from the US. President Tsai has made her resistance to Beijing the crux of her reelection campaign for a 2020 general election where she is fighting for another term.

Beijing’s decision to end the tourism program is likely a direct response to Taiwan’s $2.2 billion arms purchase from the US, something that has inspired accusations of western interference from the mainland’s government. During a four-day visit to Washington last month, Tsai declared that Taiwan will “firmly defend our democratic system” as Beijing suggested that it could use force to speed up its plans for reunification, while increasing the frequency of live-fire drills in the Strait of Taiwan.

“(Tsai’s) Democratic Progressive Party is continually pushing activities to promote Taiwan’s independence and inciting hostility toward the mainland, seriously undermining the conditions for mainland travelers to visit the island,” said Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office.

“I believe compatriots on both sides of the strait hope relations will return to a correct track of peaceful development, allowing travel by mainland residents to Taiwan to return to normal as soon as possible,” Ma said, according to mainland press reports.

According to Reuters, President Tsai rebuked China’s decision on Thursday, saying the move was intended to influence the upcoming presidential election. Taiwan saw strong economic growth during the second quarter, something that the island’s economist chalked up to an increase in tourists from the mainland.

“Using tourists as political tools would only create antipathy in Taiwanese people,” President Tsai told reporters in the presidential palace in Taipei. “Tourism shouldn’t be politicized.”

She also said Beijing has used its control over tourism to Taiwan to influence elections in the past.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2YB2zef Tyler Durden

Brickbats: August/September 2019

In Johnson County, Kansas, a 5-year-old student hid inside a bookshelf in the Bluejacket-Flint Elementary School library. A teacher named Crystal Smith found the girl, angrily pulled her out, waited for another adult who was present to turn away, and, video footage shows, kicked the student in the back.

Former Iowa Department of Human Services social worker Chelsie Gray has been charged with three counts of felony perjury for giving false testimony while recommending to a judge that he remove four children from their mother and father and terminate the couple’s parental rights.

A Ladue, Missouri, police officer has been charged with second-degree assault for shooting an alleged shoplifter who was attempting to flee the scene. An attorney for Officer Julie Crews said she thought she was drawing a Taser, not her gun.

A new law in New South Wales, Australia, could force the Lithgow Small Arms Factory Museum to destroy or sell 70 percent of its collection. The law requires all pistols and many other types of firearms to be rendered permanently inoperable. That would require parts to be welded together or a steel rod to be inserted into the barrel of a gun and welded in place. Museum officials say that if they cannot get the law overturned, they will sell the collection overseas.

When Jesus Reyes and his family arrived at the pavilion at a Bexar County, Texas, park that they’d reserved for Easter Sunday, they found Precinct 2 Constable Michelle Barrientes Vela there, in uniform, claiming she had reserved the pavilion. After a park manager confirmed that she had not, Vela and her group moved to a nearby barbecue pit. She then insisted that Reyes pay her $300 for security, which he did.

A judge in British Columbia, Canada, has found Patrick Henry Grzelak guilty of violating the province’s “hands free” driving law, even though Grzelak wasn’t holding his phone. In fact, the phone was properly stored and had a dead battery. But Grzelak had his earbuds in, and they were plugged into the phone. Justice Brent Adair said that makes them part of the phone and that Grzelak was therefore in violation of the law.

An 80-year-old woman in Bootle, England, was handed a 50-pound ($65) fine by code enforcement for walking her dog on a leash that was too long. The officers who cited her warned her the fine would increase to 2,500 pounds ($3,200) if she did not pay it within two weeks. After local media picked up the story, the local council dropped the charge.

Starting in January, the state of Washington will require booster seats for all children until they reach 4 feet, 9 inches in height when they are traveling in vehicles. That will cover many kids until they are around age 12.

Officials with the Pearland, Texas, Independent School District say an administrator has been placed on leave for mishandling a disciplinary action. A student showed up at Berry Miller Junior High School with an M shaved into his hair, a violation of the school dress code. The administrator told the boy he had three options: call his mother, receive disciplinary action, or color it in. The boy ended up with the M colored in with a marker. School officials say that shouldn’t have happened.

More than 3 million Californians may have to go back to the Department of Motor Vehicles to get new driver’s licenses. The federal Department of Homeland Security sent a letter to Gov. Gavin Newsom telling him the new licenses do not comply with Real ID requirements because the state did not adequately verify the residences of applicants.

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The First Cut Is The Weakest

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

The First Cut Is The Weakest

I would have given you all of my mark (to market); but there’s someone who’s torn it apart

And he’s taking just all that I had; but if you wanna try to buy again

Baby, I’ll try to buy again, but I know

The first cut is the weakest, baby, I know; The first cut is the weakest

But when it comes to being lucky, he’s cursed; When it comes to lovin’ Trump, he’s worse

With apologies to Sheryl Crow and none to the Fed, what a mess! The FOMC cut 25bp yesterday, despite starting the year planning further hikes, despite ultra-low unemployment, and despite their own general admission that everything is basically awesome. Yet we ended the day with stocks lower, the US yield curve viciously flattening, most so 2-30s, and the USD at a 2-year high. (A trend that doesn’t surprise us.) Mission ‘mis-accomplished’, Mr Powell.

What was the Fed’s key error? As our Fed whisperer Philip Marey points out here, basically the Fed Chair tried to make the case in his press conference that this was not the start of a proper easing cycle, but rather just a mid-cycle adjustment where rates could even go back up again at some point rather than just down, down, and down, as the market wanted to hear. NB You don’t not give the market what it wants: or at least you don’t and keep your job. Immediately following the Fed cut and market wobbly, President Trump tweeted: “What the Market wanted to hear from Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve was that this was the beginning of a lengthy and aggressive rate-cutting cycle which would keep pace with China, The European Union and other countries around the world. As usual, Powell let us down, but at least he is ending quantitative tightening, which shouldn’t have started in the first place – no inflation. We are winning anyway, but I am certainly not getting much help from the Federal Reserve!”

Trump would probably have been happier if there had been a 50bp cut, as in Brazil, on which note see Maurico Oreng’s coverage here; or perhaps even a 425bp cut as was last seen in Turkey? Regardless, our view remains the Fed will be dragged into a full-blown rate-cutting cycle – once it’s too late to prevent a US recession in 2020.

If that wasn’t enough for markets to fret about, over in Shanghai the US-China trade talks ended early with no results whatsoever. Indeed, the official stage-managed group photo released post-meeting was taken in front of a wall covered in ancient Chinese poetry I am reliably informed implies “It would be nice to have it, but we can live without it, and we will persevere.” True, the Tweet-happy editor of China’s Global Times let us know that in his view it was an “efficient and constructive deep exchange” but to my mind that is probably a script like this:

LIGHTHIZER: “Are you ready to make deep changes to the Chinese economy?”

LIU HE: “No. Are you ready to drop tariffs to allow more constructive market access for China?”

LIGHTHIZER: “No.”

LIU HE: “ OK, at least that was efficient. Let’s take a photo and you can go home.”

Of course, our view remains that there is no real trade deal to be done even if the two sides meet again in September: and that’s also a strong USD story.

Meanwhile, there were other things happening yesterday. The US is apparently not going to remove waivers on foreign firms involved in Iran’s civilian nuclear program, which eases tensions a little; but it is going to personally sanction Iranian Foreign Minister Zariff after all. Iran itself is about to drop three zeroes from its struggling Rial, which US sanctions have crushed, and rename the currency the Toman. “Same-same but different,” as the Thais say. The US senate is also pressing ahead with a bill to put sanctions on any firms involved in building Nordstream 2 and Turkstream, the new gas pipelines Russia has been pressing ahead with to bring supplies to Europe while circumventing Ukraine. That’s yet another potential US-EU clash brewing, which an EU economy growing at 1.1% y/y and with core CPI at 1.1% y/y is of course ideally placed for.

In Asia, China has banned individual travel to Taiwan for its citizens starting from today in a demonstration of what strong-arm trade tactics really look like: who will be next to feel that cosh, one wonders? Luckily, Bloomberg reports of the PLA massing on Hong Kong’s border in Guangdong were wrong: it is merely 190,000 police officers, including helicopters and armoured vehicles, who are marching up and down in a warm-up for the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic a long, long way from Beijing where these things usually happen. All a coincidence, of course, as Hong Kong heads to more protests this weekend and rumours of a general strike on Monday. Meanwhile, the HKMA has happily cut rates to follow the Fed, having not really raised rates much most of the time the Fed has been doing so. But it’s hardly alone in that, now is it?

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An $80 Fine for a Busted Taillight Ends With a Woman Being Tased

A disagreement over a busted taillight fine ended with an Oklahoma police officer tasing a 65-year-old woman.

Body camera footage shows an unnamed officer interacting with the woman, Debra Hamil, during the July 16 traffic stop. The officer presents Hamil with an $80 ticket and asks her to sign it. Hamil protests: “I don’t think that I deserve to pay $80 for something that is fixable—and I can fix it, if that’s all you want me to do.”

The officer tells Hamil that she is under arrest for refusing the ticket and asks her to step out of the vehicle. Hamil says “no,” rolls her windows up, and locks the doors before the officer can open them. Hamil briefly rolls her window down to tell the officer that he’s “full of shit,” then tells him to hand the ticket over so she can sign it. The officer says they’re “beyond that.” She drives off. The officer enters his vehicle.

The footage cuts to the officer approaching Hamil’s truck. He’s eventually able to pull her out of the truck and down the ground. After she refuses to put her hands behind her back and kicks the officer away, he deploys his taser.

Hamil is eventually handcuffed and placed in the back seat.

Bodycam video: Woman becomes aggressive with officer after refusing to sign ticket

"YOU ARE FULL OF S***!" | CAUGHT ON CAMERA: A 65-year-old woman became aggressive with a Cashion police officer, kicking him and resisting arrest, after she refused to sign a $80 ticket for a broken tail light.Christine Stanwood KOCO has the full story >> https://bit.ly/32TaJSu

Posted by KOCO 5 News on Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Hamil was later charged with assaulting an officer (felony) and resisting (misdemeanor).

When KOCO posted the video on Facebook, some of the comments supported the woman and some supported the officer. But one thing is certain: This situation was avoidable.

Traffic stops for busted taillights and other minor infractions just aren’t worth the risks they generate, both for motorists and police officers. Often, the stops are really being used to generate revenue or as a pretense to search for contraband, such as drugs or guns, when an officer otherwise lacks probable cause. Even then, Berkeley law professor Christopher Kutz has argued, the few times police successfully find something “don’t justify the enormous social costs of widespread police interventions.” In the worst-case scenario, a traffic stop could result in death, as the surviving families of Philando Castile and Sandra Bland know well.

If police truly wish to continue to go after low-level crimes, they can cut down on interactions like the one seen in the video by reserving traffic stops for accidents and impaired drivers while using cameras and other technology to enforce minor violations. Though it’s also worth asking how many of those minor violations are worth prohibiting in the first place. Such fines often amount to the criminalization of poverty, especially given that poorer Americans are more likely to drive older cars, which are at a higher risk for finable offenses.

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