Public Health Experts Have Undermined Their Own Case for the COVID-19 Lockdowns

In theory, the mass protests following the alleged murder of George Floyd put public health officials who have ceaselessly inveighed against mass gatherings in a difficult position. They have called for a moratorium on most types of public activities, but particularly gathering in large crowds where increased aerosolization from loud talking and yelling could spread the COVID-19 virus to massive groups.

But when it comes to the protests against police brutality, many medical experts think there should be an exemption to the COVID-19 lockdown logic.

More than a thousand public health experts signed an open letter specifically stating that “we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States.”

The letter conceded that mass protests carried the risk of spreading coronavirus, and offered some good—if naive—advice for people who are going out anyway: wear masks, stay home if sick, attempt to maintain six feet of distance from other protesters. Many protesters are wearing masks, but others are not. And while we can blame the police for forcefully corralling people into close quarters, it’s a bit rich for public health experts to endorse protesting under conditions that they know are impossible for protesters to meet.

Indeed, for the purposes of offering health care advice, the only thing that should matter to doctors is whether their harm-reduction recommendations are being followed: how big is the event, is it outdoors, are masks being worn, etc. However, the letter distinguishes police violence protesters from “white protesters resisting stay-home orders,” as if the virus could distinguish between the two types of events. While I am not a doctor, my understanding is that it cannot.

The letter led a Slate writer to claim that “Public Health Experts Say the Pandemic Is Exactly Why Protests Must Continue.” The argument here is that coronavirus is more deadly for black people because of systemic racism and that protesting systemic racism is a sort of medical intervention.

“White supremacy is a lethal public health issue that predates and contributes to COVID-19,” the letter continues.

There is much truth to this! Black people in America do have worse health outcomes, but so do low-income people of every race and ethnicity. Is it medically acceptable for a poor person to protest against lockdown-induced economic insecurity? For people who live paycheck to paycheck to protest looming evictions and foreclosures? What about people experiencing loneliness, depression, and bereavement? Again, my understanding is that the virus does not think and thus does not choose to infect us based on what we’re protesting.

Many people all over the country were prevented from properly mourning lost loved ones because policymakers and health officials limited public funerals to just 10 people. For months, public health officials urged people to stay inside and avoid gathering in large groups; at their behest, governments closed American businesses, discouraged non-essential travel, and demanded that we resist the basic human instinct to seek out companionship, all because COVID-19 could hurt us even if we were being careful, even if we were going to a funeral rather than a nightclub. All of us were asked to suffer a great deal of second-order misery for the greater good, and many of us complied with these orders because we were told that failing to slow the spread of COVID-19 would be far worse than whatever economic impact we would suffer as a result of bringing life to a complete standstill.

People who failed to follow social distancing orders have faced harsh criticism and even formal sanction for violating these public health guidelines. To take just one extreme example, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio threatened to use law enforcement to break up a Jewish funeral.

After saying no to so many things, a significant number of public health experts have determined that massive protests of police brutality are an exception to the rules of COVID-19 mitigation. Yes, these protests are outdoors, and yes, these experts have encouraged protesters to wear masks and observe six feet of social distance. But if you watch actual footage of protests—even the ones where cops are behaving badly themselves—you will see crowds that are larger and more densely packed than the public beaches and parks that many mayors and governors have heavily restricted. Every signatory to the letter above may not have called for those restrictions, but they also didn’t take to a public forum to declare them relatively safe under certain conditions.

“For many public health experts who have spent weeks advising policymakers and the public on how to reduce their risk of getting or inadvertently spreading the coronavirus, the mass demonstrations have forced a shift in perspective,” The New York Times tells us.

But they could have easily kept the same perspective: Going out is dangerous, here’s how to best protect yourself. The added well, this cause is important, though, makes the previous guidance look rather suspect. It also makes it seem like the righteousness of the cause is somehow a mitigating factor for spreading the disease.

Examples of this new framing abound. The Times interviewed Tiffany Rodriguez, an epidemiologist “who has rarely left her home since mid-March,” but felt compelled to attend a protest in Boston because “police brutality is a public health epidemic.” NPR joined in with a headline warning readers not to consider the two crises—racism and coronavirus—separately. Another recent New York Times article began: “They are parallel plagues ravaging America: The coronavirus. And police killings of black men and women.”

Police violence, white supremacy, and systemic racism are very serious problems. They produce disparate harms for marginalized communities: politically, economically, and also from a medical standpoint. They exacerbate health inequities. But they are not epidemics in the same way that the coronavirus is an epidemic, and it’s an abuse of the English language to pretend otherwise. Police violence is a metaphorical plague. COVID-19 is a literal plague.

These differences matter. You cannot contract racism if someone coughs on you. You cannot unknowingly spread racism to a grandparent or roommate with an underlying health condition, threatening their very lives. Protesting is not a prescription for combatting police violence in the same way that penicillin is a prescription for a bacterial infection. Doctors know what sorts of treatments cure various sicknesses. They don’t know what sorts of protests, policy responses, or social phenomena will necessarily produce a less racist society, and they shouldn’t leverage their expertise in a manner that suggests they know the answers.

It’s clear that we’ve come to the point where people can no longer be expected to stay at home no matter what. Individuals should feel empowered to make choices about which activities are important enough to incur some exposure to COVID-19 and possibly spreading it to someone else, whether that activity is reopening a business, going back to work, socializing with friends, or joining a protest against police brutality. Health experts can help inform these choices. But they can’t declare there’s just one activity that’s worth the risk.

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US Protest Arrests Surpass 10,000; Officials Fear New COVID-19 Explosion As Jails Swell

US Protest Arrests Surpass 10,000; Officials Fear New COVID-19 Explosion As Jails Swell

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/04/2020 – 11:26

A new nationwide tally produced by the Associated Press finds protest arrests across America has topped 10,000 since the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis last week.

Events quickly spiraled in many major American cities into rioting, looting, and general lawlessness as mobs of angry protesters took ever entire city blocks; however, many demonstrations have remained peaceful  surprisingly such as protests in Flint, Michigan — notable given its recent history of tensions with local government over the water crisis. 

Los Angeles has seen the most arrests nationwide, accounting for over a quarter, while the second most is in New York, with Dallas and Philadelphia to follow. 

Protest arrests in Dallas. Image source: NBC DFW

The bulk of arrests have been for low-level offenses like curfew violation or failure to disperse, while multiple hundreds have been detained for looting and burglary.

Another interesting finding is related to the ‘outside agitators’ theory pushed by some mayors and governors of various states, who have alleged most of the rioting and looting was carried out by people outside their states.

“The AP found that in a 24-hour period last weekend, 41 of 52 people with protest-related arrests in the city had a Minnesota driver’s license,” The Hill summarizes of the figures.” “About 86 percent of the more than 400 people arrested in Washington, D.C., as of Wednesday afternoon were from the District, Maryland or Virginia.”

Perhaps the most important statistics to come out of the week of protest mayhem, however, will be related to the coronavirus spread within the protesting throngs.

Over the weekend and at the start of the week US health officials warned of the protest risks regarding the potentially deadly virus:

The risk is even more pronounced when factoring in the more than 5,600 demonstrators who have been arrested, according to The Associated Press.

Not only are jails crowded indoor spaces, but protesters sat in vehicles at close range for an extended period of time, which increases the risk for onward transmission of the virus, Osterholm explained.

Via AP

The country went from observing months of strict lockdown, stay-at-home orders, and social distancing measures to witnessing tens of thousands squeezed into city streets – and often clashing in ‘close quarter combat’ scenarios with police lines – pretty much overnight. 

It’s expected a dreaded second wave could come out of this, especially given the current protest epicenters of New York, Minnesota and Los Angeles were already hard-hit places in terms of COVID-19.

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The Absolute Insanity Of Retail FOMO In Just Three Headlines

The Absolute Insanity Of Retail FOMO In Just Three Headlines

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/04/2020 – 11:20

We have written extensively about the sheer retail FOMO euphoria that has gripped markets (How Retail Investors Took Over The Stock Market; “It’s Like Gambling, Isn’t It?”: First Time Retail Investors Piled Into Stocks During March Plunge; “For Guys Like Me, It’s All About Sheer Luck”: Why Retail Traders Are Facing “Catastrophic Losses“) so we won’t dwell on this topic suffice to point out the stock chart of (the aptly named) Genius Brands – a company that makes educational DVDs and CD music – and just three headlines, all hitting within one hour, and revealing the insanity of what happens when everyone pours into the market.

And the result:

And yes, GNUS is the most popular stock on Robinhood today…

… where retail investors flooded the microcap company, resulting in the completely unwarranted surge in its stock price.

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Project Veritas Infiltrates Violent Antifa Cell

Project Veritas Infiltrates Violent Antifa Cell

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/04/2020 – 11:10

An undercover journalist with Project Veritas successfully infiltrated Portland’s Rose City Antifa cell, capturing footage of a meeting in which members discussed how to “get out there and do dangerous things as safely as possible.

Antifa has been a fixture at the nationwide Black Lives Matter protests against police brutality (with varying degrees of success) which began after the May 25 death of 46-year-old black man George Floyd at the hands of white Minneapolice police officer Derek Chauvin, who pressed his knee to Floyd’s neck for more than eight minutes as onlookers begged him to stop.

According to National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien on Sunday, the violence “is being driven by Antifa.

A protester with an antifa flag draped over his shoulders stands at a rally to demand justice for George Floyd and support of the Black Lives Matter movement in Boston on May 31. (Photo by Matthew J. Lee / The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

And in Portland, members of Antifa are actively plotting ways to commit violence against their enemies while not getting caught.

Practice things like an eye gouge, it takes very little pressure to injure someone’s eyes,” member Nicholas Cifuni was recorded saying by the Project Veritas journalist.

“Police are going to be like: ‘Perfect, we can prosecute these [Antifa] fuckers, look how violent they are.’ And not that we aren’t, but we need to fucking hide that shit,” he added. 

“Consider like, destroying your enemy. Not like delivering a really awesome right hand, right eye, left eye blow you know. It’s not boxing, its not kickboxing, it’s like destroying your enemy.

“The whole goal of this, right, is to get out there and do dangerous things as safely as possible,” said Rose City Antifa member ‘Ashes’.

“They do not hesitate to either push back or incite some kind of violence. In our classes and in our meetings, before we do any sort of demonstration or Black Bloc, we talk about weapons detail and what we carry and what we should have.” -Project Veritas undercover journalist

Watch:

“Project Veritas does not condone any violence whatsoever. It is a sad time in our nation’s history with Antifa activists hijacking #blacklivesmatter protests in cities across the country, attacking the police and engaging in violence,” said Project Veritas Founder and CEO, James O’Keefe.

“In many places, it appears the violence is planned, organized & driven by anarchic left extremist groups — far-left extremist groups using Antifa-like tactics.”

President Trump announced earlier this week that Anitfa would be designated a terrorist organization.

To that end, the Rose City Antifa cell has repeatedly planned for, and engaged in “direct confrontation” with participants in pro-Trump rallies. In 2018, they notably clashed with members of Patriot Prayer and the pro-Trump “Proud Boys,” which resulted in a viral video of a member of Antifa being knocked out during a melee started by the violent “resistance” group. 

And in 2017, Berkeley police recovered several caches of weapons from members of Antifa who were had planned to attack Trump supporters.

You know, terrorist stuff… 

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Some Facts Worth Knowing

Some Facts Worth Knowing

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/04/2020 – 11:05

Authored by Walter Williams, op-ed via Townhall.com,

Imagine that you are an unborn spirit in heaven. God condemns you to a life of poverty but will permit you to choose the country in which you will spend your life. Which country would you choose? I would choose the United States of America.

A recent study by Just Facts, an excellent source of factual information, shows that after accounting for income, charity and noncash welfare benefits such as subsidized health care, housing, food stamps and other assistance programs, “the poorest 20% of Americans consume more goods and services than the national averages for all people in the world’s most affluent countries.” This includes the majority of countries that are members of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, including its European members.

The Just Facts study concludes that if the U.S. “poor” were a nation, then it would be one of the world’s richest.

As early as 2010, 43% of all poor households owned their own homes. The average home owned by persons classified as poor by the Census Bureau is a three-bedroom house with one-and-a-half baths, a garage and a porch or patio. Eighty percent of poor households have air conditioning. The typical poor American has more living space than the average non-poor individual living in Paris, London, Vienna, Athens and other cities throughout Europe. Ninety-seven percent of poor households have one or more color televisions — half of which are connected to cable, satellite or a streaming service. Some 82% of poor families have one or more smartphones. Eighty-nine percent own microwave ovens and more than a third have an automatic dishwasher. Most poor families have a car or truck and 43% own two or more vehicles.

Most surveys on U.S. poverty are deeply flawed because poor households greatly underreport both their income and noncash benefits such as health care benefits provided by Medicaid, free clinics and the Children’s Health Insurance Program, nourishment provided by food stamps, school lunches, school breakfasts, soup kitchens, food pantries, the Women, Infants & Children Program and homeless shelters.

We hear and read stories such as “Real Wage Growth Is Actually Falling” and “Since 2000 Wage Growth Has Barely Grown.” But we should not believe it. Ask yourself, “What is the total compensation that I receive from my employer?” If you included only your money wages, you would be off the mark anywhere between 30% and 38%. Total employee compensation includes mandated employer expenses such as Social Security and Medicare. Other employee benefits include retirement and health care benefits as well as life insurance, short-term and long-term disability insurance, vacation leave, tuition reimbursement and bonuses. There is incentive for people to want more of their compensation in a noncash form simply because of the different tax treatment. The bottom line is that prior to the government shutdown of our economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, Americans were becoming richer and richer. The question before us now is how to get back on that path.

Speaking of the COVID-19 pandemic, Just Facts has a couple of interesting takes in an article by its co-founder James D. Agresti and Dr. Andrew Glen titled “Anxiety From Reactions to Covid-19 Will Destroy At Least Seven Times More Years of Life Than Can Be Saved by Lockdowns.”

Scientific surveys of U.S. residents have found that the mental health of about one-third to one-half of all adults has been substantially compromised by government reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic. There are deaths from non-psychological causes, such as government-mandated and personal decisions to delay medical care, which has postponed tumor removals, cancer screenings, heart surgeries and treatments for other ailments that could lead to early death if not addressed in a timely manner. Interesting and sadly enough, New York state enacted one of the strictest lockdowns in the U.S. but has 22 times the death rate of Florida, which had one of the mildest lockdowns.

As I pointed out in a recent column, intelligent decision-making requires one to not only pay attention to the benefits of an action but to its costs as well.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2zQoWGl Tyler Durden

1000s Descend On “Illegal Vigil” In Hong Kong’s Victoria Park Honoring Victims Of Tiananmen Square Massacre

1000s Descend On “Illegal Vigil” In Hong Kong’s Victoria Park Honoring Victims Of Tiananmen Square Massacre

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/04/2020 – 10:45

Authorities may have banned an official peaceful demonstration honoring the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre and passed a new law making “shows of disrespect” toward the Chinese National Anthem, but thousands of Hong Kongers are still finding ways to honor the 31st anniversary of a massacre where hundreds, or more likely thousands, of peaceful protesters were murdered by the Chinese military.

Beijing banned the peaceful vigil – an annual tradition – for the first time this year amid a crackdown on Hong Kong’s freedoms spurred by the pro-democracy movement that brought chaos and disorder to the streets of HK.

Twice, pro-democracy lawmakers disrupted proceedings as the new national anthem law was being passed.

Despite the declaration, crowds poured into Victoria Park to light candles and observe a minute of silence at 2009PA (0809ET). Many chanted “Democracy now” and “Stand for freedom, stand with Hong Kong.” Police stood by, playing recordings warning attendees not to engage in the vigil. Police also cited the need for social distancing to be maintained.

Police cited the need for social distancing during the coronavirus outbreak in barricading the sprawling park, but activists saw that as a convenient excuse.

“We all know the Hong Kong government and the Chinese government really don’t want to see the candle lights in Victoria Park,” said Wu’er Kaixi, a former student leader who was No. 2 on the government’s most-wanted list following the Tiananmen Square crackdown.

Hundreds and possibly thousands of people were killed when tanks and troops moved in on the night of June 3-4, 1989, to break up weeks of student-led protests that had spread to other cities and were seen as a threat to Communist Party rule.

“The Chinese Communists want us all to forget about what happened 31 years ago,” Wu’er told the AP in Taiwan, where he lives. “But it is the Chinese government themselves reminding the whole world that they are the same government…doing the same in Hong Kong.”

Tiananmen Square itself was empty on Thursday, as Chinese police once again engaged in the practice of placing known dissidents under house arrest for the day.

Meanwhile, police arrested protesters in other parts of the city.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3cx7weY Tyler Durden

Lockdowns “Maximize Economic Pain For Minimal Health Gains”

Lockdowns “Maximize Economic Pain For Minimal Health Gains”

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/04/2020 – 10:30

Authored by Abigail Devereaux via The American Institute for Economic Research,

The novel coronavirus has done severe economic damage all over the globe. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) stated on June 1, 2020 that it could take nearly a decade for the economy to grow back to levels forecasted this January. As economists, we want to understand just how much damage has been done to what people and sectors and how that damage was perpetrated. There’s usually more than one perp in a Depression. 

First, the coronavirus obviously causes direct health effects that can impact economies. Note that economists like myself are not suggesting illness or death is bad primarily because of their economic effects; the social and personal costs of pandemics are devastating on their own. Second, people voluntarily change their consumption, work, and personal behavior in reaction to pandemics, without the need for any intervention. Third, political interventions like stay-at-home orders and business closures coercively change consumption, work and personal behaviors in ways that impact economies.

In this study, I’m interested mostly in the effects of political interventions. No one person can do much to affect mass, decentralized behavioral changes. But political officials taking advice from epidemiological and economic experts can directly and severely affect state and regional economies. 

The numbers I use to track these intervention-based effects are state-specific insured unemployment claims from March 1, 2020 until May 9, 2020, the most recent reflected week at the time of writing. I group states by their lockdown status circa the most recent reflected week. Generally, I index insured unemployment rates to 0% on March 1, 2020, so what you’re seeing in these charts is the difference between the unemployment rates in each state reflecting the two weeks ending on March 1, 2020 and the unemployment rates in each state reflecting the two weeks ending on May 9, 2020. 

First, let’s look at the series for all states from March 15, 2020 (rates are extremely stable before that) and May 9, 2020. Each thin line is a state’s own series, colored by group. States locked down but with stated lockdown end dates are red, states locked down with no stated end dates are orange, states partially or fully reopened are blue, and states with no official lockdown are green. Thick lines in the series represent group averages. 

Next, let’s take a look at each group. I start with states that were still locked down on May 9, since their group average (15.5% insured unemployed) is the highest of all the groups. 

Washington (29.5% indexed to March 1 and 31.2% unindexed unemployment), Nevada (25.3% indexed to March 1 and 26.75% unindexed unemployment), and Hawaii (22.45% indexed to March 1 and 23.42% unindexed unemployment) have the highest levels of unemployment in the closed group.

In the next graph, I look at the states locked down on May 9 whose lockdowns didn’t have definitive end dates. 

There aren’t many states in this group as of May 9. It’s important to note that some states started their lockdowns in March and April with indefinite lockdowns and by May 9 had formulated plans with on-paper end dates or phased reopenings. 

The next graph looks at states amidst a partial or full reopening as of May 9. Note that this group consists of both states whose reopenings were weeks old and states whose reopenings were brand new as of May 9. For the sake of rigor I disincluded states that reopened on May 9, and kept those states in the “closed” group. 

Florida is the obvious outlier of this graph, with 29.5% indexed to March 1 and 31.2% unindexed unemployment.

The final graph looks at the states with no formal shutdown orders, or what I call “no lockdown” states.

While the outlier of this small group, Arkansas, did not have a formal lockdown order, it did shut down restaurants, elective surgeries, casinos, venues and salons throughout the state.

Here are the group averages on their own graph: 

What story do these graphs tell? An incomplete story, to be sure, like watching a very small part of a crime scene in which there are several perpetrators unfold before one’s eyes. Here’s a summary table of where group averages were on May 9: 

In general, states that were still closed on May 9 had the highest average insured unemployment rates relative to the average for that same group on March 1. The unemployment rate of fully locked down states was at least double than states that had no formal lockdown. States that were fully or partially opened by May 9 fared better than fully locked down states, but as a group had almost double the average insured unemployment rate of states without a formal lockdown. 

It’s important to issue a few caveats upon further study of this unfolding scene. 

First: many states are still today (the beginning of June 2020) in the middle of reopening. Some states like Washington and Wisconsin have seen challenges (in the case of Wisconsin, successful) to their ongoing lockdown. 

Second: there is no direct tradeoff between economic health and population-level health. It isn’t clear to what extent lockdowns will reduce COVID-19 fatalities and infections in the long run, as the imposition of general quarantines naturally slow the rate at which a population reaches herd immunity given that they are designed to slow the spread of the virus. 

If general quarantines damage the economy enough to send it into its worst depression since the Great One our grandparents lived through, but do not significantly reduce fatalities and infections in the long run, get us foreseeably closer to a workable vaccine, or protect the most vulnerable in particular, then lockdowns might maximize economic pain for minimal health gains. 

This is what the unemployment data seem to say at the moment. Economists should continue to look at this and other numbers for clues that can help us understand how best to put together the story of this unfolding scene, so that if some kinds of interventions turn out to be perpetrators instead of panaceas, we know to advise against employing them in the future.

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Support, Don’t ‘Dominate,’ Protesters Seeking ‘Equal Justice Under the Law,’ Writes Former Defense Secretary Mattis

Militarized cops and Trump photo op are too much for former Marine general. Former Secretary of Defense James Mattis—the first of four people to occupy that position under Trump, if you count acting heads—is strongly condemning the president’s response to the last week of Black Lives Matter protests.

“I have watched this week’s unfolding events, angry and appalled,” Mattis wrote in a Wednesday statement that harshly condemned the government’s militarized response to the protests and accused Trump of trying “to divide us.”

Some will wave off the former general’s condemnations as sour grapes stemming from his time in the administration. But Mattis has hardly been a Trump critic in the 15 months since he left his position. In fact, Mattis “had refrained from publicly criticizing his former boss since resigning,” notes Axios.

In his new statement, provided to The Atlantic, Mattis stuck up for protesters coming out to condemn the killing of George Floyd and the pattern of police brutality in America.

Protesters are “rightly demanding” a country that commits to “equal justice under the law,” wrote Mattis, who urged people not to be distracted by “a small number of lawbreakers” compared to the “tens of thousands of people of conscience” making this “wholesome and unifying demand.”

Fundamentally, these protests are about “insisting that we live up to our values—our values as people and our values as a nation,” said Mattis. He goes on:

When I joined the military, some 50 years ago, I swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution. Never did I dream that troops taking that same oath would be ordered under any circumstance to violate the Constitutional rights of their fellow citizens—much less to provide a bizarre photo op for the elected commander-in-chief, with military leadership standing alongside.

We must reject any thinking of our cities as a “battlespace” that our uniformed military is called upon to “dominate.” At home, we should use our military only when requested to do so, on very rare occasions, by state governors. Militarizing our response, as we witnessed in Washington, D.C., sets up a conflict—a false conflict—between the military and civilian society. It erodes the moral ground that ensures a trusted bond between men and women in uniform and the society they are sworn to protect, and of which they themselves are a part. Keeping public order rests with civilian state and local leaders who best understand their communities and are answerable to them.

James Madison wrote in Federalist 14 that “America united with a handful of troops, or without a single soldier, exhibits a more forbidding posture to foreign ambition than America disunited, with a hundred thousand veterans ready for combat.” We do not need to militarize our response to protests. We need to unite around a common purpose. And it starts by guaranteeing that all of us are equal before the law.

Instructions given by the military departments to our troops before the Normandy invasion reminded soldiers that “The Nazi slogan for destroying us…was ‘Divide and Conquer.’ Our American answer is ‘In Union there is Strength.'” We must summon that unity to surmount this crisis—confident that we are better than our politics.

Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us. We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership. We can unite without him, drawing on the strengths inherent in our civil society. This will not be easy, as the past few days have shown, but we owe it to our fellow citizens; to past generations that bled to defend our promise; and to our children.

We can come through this trying time stronger, and with a renewed sense of purpose and respect for one another. The pandemic has shown us that it is not only our troops who are willing to offer the ultimate sacrifice for the safety of the community. Americans in hospitals, grocery stores, post offices, and elsewhere have put their lives on the line in order to serve their fellow citizens and their country. We know that we are better than the abuse of executive authority that we witnessed in Lafayette Square. We must reject and hold accountable those in office who would make a mockery of our Constitution. At the same time, we must remember Lincoln’s “better angels,” and listen to them, as we work to unite.

Only by adopting a new path—which means, in truth, returning to the original path of our founding ideals—will we again be a country admired and respected at home and abroad.


PROTEST UPDATES

Protests and memorials went down peacefully in Washington, D.C., and many other parts of the country last night.

But protesters (and medics) in New York City were once again greeted with arrests and physical abuse by the NYPD.

More than 10,000 people nationwide have now been arrested during the protests, the Associated Press reports.


FREE MINDS

Suspended for tweeting like Trump:


FREE MARKETS

No more “interracial” porn. A lot of brands have been working overtime to try and position themselves on the right side of conflicts around police brutality and U.S. racism—and the changes have even hit hookup apps and pornography. Adult Video News (AVN) announced this week that it would end news and awards categories for “interracial” porn:

Meanwhile, gay dating and hookup app Grindr announced that it will stop letting users sort potential partners by ethnicity.


QUICK HITS

• The latest in unemployment claims: 1.9 million new claims filed last week. “The jobless claims figure, reported each week, comes ahead of Friday’s release of the unemployment rate for May,” notes Politico. “Economists expect that figure will show nearly one in five Americans were out of work in the middle of last month.”

• Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D–Mass.) is co-sponsoring a proposal (with Michigan Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash) to end qualified immunity.

• A new study on COVID-19 susceptibility finds that “variations at two spots in the human genome are associated with an increased risk of respiratory failure in patients with Covid-19,” reports The New York Times. “Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.”

• Actor Zachary Levi spent the day on Twitter yesterday defending libertarianism and third-party voting.

• The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) is suing Minneapolis police.

• “Drug enforcement agents should not be conducting covert surveillance of protests and First Amendment protected speech,” said Hugh Handeyside, a senior attorney for the ACLU. And yet…

• Even the National Inquirer wouldn’t run with Trump’s Joe Scarborough conspiracy.

• Aerosolized chemical agents like pepper spray could spread COVID-19 at protests, health experts warn.

• People are very, very unhappy about The New York Times publishing this op-ed from Sen. Tom Cotton (R–Ark.) that calls for using the U.S. military against American protesters.

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Bond Market On Edge Of Chaos As 10Y Yields Blow Out To CTA Liquidation Trigger

Bond Market On Edge Of Chaos As 10Y Yields Blow Out To CTA Liquidation Trigger

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/04/2020 – 10:17

After trading in a tight 20bps range for the past two months, 10Y yields are blowing out and have jumped to the highest level since March 26.

There have been a bevy explanations for the move, including that markets have now priced in virtually all of the monetary stimulus from central banks (after today’s surprisingly large, €600BN QE expansion by the ECB) and that supply/demand fundamentals are once again going to matter (with trillions in new issuance coming in the US), or that the move is simply due to reopening optimism, with Nomura noting that investor sentiment—an expression of investors’ willingness to take on risk—has made its way up from pessimistic to neutral, and the improvement is starting to have an effect on where Nomura estimates that global macro hedge funds have backed out of the totality of their long positions in US government bonds, and now have a net position in the aggregate that is either flat or slightly to the short side. The improvement in the US economic surprise index may be helping to fuel this trend.

As a result of the actions of global macro hedge funds in the market, and following the latest push higher in yields, Nomura thinks that it is possible that CTAs (systematic trend-following investors with a top-down perspective) are being pressed into a further portfolio shift away from overweighting bonds towards overweighting equities. For the moment, CTAs’ positions still show a preferential tilt towards long positions in bonds (DM government bond futures). However, the prospect of a bottoming out in the economy (as pointed to by the improvement in the economic surprise index) has probably made bond-buying a less appealing idea from a technical standpoint as well.

Indeed, if we look at the one-month rolling correlations between actual CTA performance (as measured by the SG CTA Index) on the one hand and stock market or bond market performance on the other, we find that CTA performance has been inversely correlated with the performance of equities (normally an indication of short positions) and positively correlated with the performance of bonds (normally an indication of long positions). If nothing else, this would seem to make it clear that CTAs have been slow to get on board the current equity rally, and that a sell-off in bonds is still the pain side for them.

So at what level do CTAs capitulate on their bond longs and turn short, unleashing a selling cascade?

According to Nomura’s CTA position index (representing our estimate of the positioning of CTAs based on real-time data) CTAs to still have a net long position in 10yr UST futures, “although with a conspicuous notch recently where that position appears to have hit a ceiling.” This means that should the pressure created by global macro hedge funds’ sell-off of USTs increase to the point that the 10yr UST yield climbs above the “red line” that exists at around 0.84%, CTAs would likely be drawn into exiting their long positions in TY to cut their losses.

Moments ago, in what may be one giant CTA stop hunt to force CTAs to puke, we got as far as 0.82%: should yields rise another 2bps, the chaos in the bond market may observed in early and mid-March may make a triumphal reappearance.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2XXFbtb Tyler Durden