Tag: news

Police are responding to an “active shooter situation” at a UPS supply chain processing facility in Logan Township, New Jersey, according to local media reports.

UPS said it’s working with law enforcement. Though no shots have been confirmed, police are swarming the streets and a loading ramp.

“We cannot provide information about the identity of people involved at this time,” UPS said in a statement.

New Jersey State Police said “local and county authorities” were responding to the incident.

Local and county authorities have responded to an incident in Logan Township, Gloucester County. Media inquiries should be directed to those entities. #alert

— NJSP – State Police (@NJSP) January 14, 2019

This is a developing story…

 

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William Barr, President Trump’s pick for attorney general, will tell senators at his confirmation hearing that it is “vitally important” that special counsel Robert Mueller is allowed to finish his investigation, according to prepared remarks obtained by the Associated Press on Monday. 

“I believe it is in the best interest of everyone — the President, Congress, and, most importantly, the American people – that this matter be resolved by allowing the Special Counsel to complete his work,” Barr is set to tell lawmakers. 

Barr also says that it’s “very important” that Congress and the public be informed of the special counsel’s findings into potential coordination between the 2016 Trump presidential campaign and Russia. 

“For that reason, my goal will be to provide as much transparency as I can consistent with the law,” Barr will say. “I can assure you that, where judgments are to be made by me, I will make those judgments based solely on the law and will let no personal, political, or other improper interests influence my decisions.”

The remarks are an acknowledgment that Barr’s handling of Mueller’s investigation will take center stage at Tuesday’s hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee. They’re intended to reassure Democratic senators troubled by Barr’s past comments on the special counsel’s probe, including an unsolicited memo he sent the Justice Department last year criticizing the inquiry into whether the president had obstructed justice.

He also previously said the president’s firing of FBI director James Comey was appropriate and that the Mueller team, criticized by Trump for including prosecutors who have contributed to Democrats, should have had more “balance.” –Bloomberg

Barr’s previous comments criticizing the Mueller probe raised alarms among Democrats that he might stifle or end the seemingly-endless investigation. Some have questioned whether Barr would approve a subpoena for Trump if he refuses to answer additional questions, and whether Congress should see whatever conclusion Mueller’s team reaches. 

During private meetings last week, Barr told lawmakers that Trump had “sought no assurances, promises, or commitments from me of any kind, either express or implied.” 

“As Attorney General, my allegiance will be to the rule of law, the Constitution, and the American people,” Barr’s statement reads. “That is how it should be. That is how it must be. And, if you confirm me, that is how it will be.” 

Barr’s supervisory role may be especially important since Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who appointed Mueller in May 2017 and has overseen his day-to-day work, expects to leave the Justice Department soon after Barr is confirmed. It is not clear how much of the investigation will be left by that point.

Barr would replace acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker, who declined to recuse himself from the investigation over past critical comments on it — despite calls from Democrats and the advice of a Justice Department ethics official. –Bloomberg

Barr’s memo in June, sent to Rosenstein and the head of the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, criticized the “fatally misconceived” theory of obstruction that Mueller appeared to be pursuing. Barr noted that presidents cannot be criminally investigated for actions they are allowed to take under the Constitution, such as firing an official who works for them – just because of a subjective determination that they may have had a corrupt state of mind. 

DOJ spokeswoman Kerri Kupec noted that Barr wrote the memo on his own accord, only relying on publicly available information – and that senior ethics officials have given it a green light in terms of conflict of interest relating to Barr’s work as attorney general. 

Barr will say in his memo that it was narrowly focused on a single theory of obstruction in media reports, and that “The memo did not address – or in any way question – the Special Counsel’s core investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.” 

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Via Pervalle,

Below is a piece we put together about a month ago that was sent around to our network. Given recent market action and the thesis still largely playing out, we decided to share it, which we are likely to do more of in the future. If you like the work below, feel free to subscribe to our mailing list at the bottom of the page.

*  *  *

The probabilities of US rates falling materially over the next six to eight months are the highest of the cycle. While global equities and commodities have begun to price in slowing growth, US rates are marginally off the highs – with the 10-year trading at 3.06%. The disconnect is likely due to supply and demand worries surrounding the Fed’s balance sheet run off, expanding US fiscal deficits, and the lack of demand from European and Japanese investors as hedged yields turn negative.

We see these concerns being largely priced into the market; however, the following line items seem they are not:

• China will continue to pressure the global economy, with no real signs of stimulus coming through the system until the back half of 2019 under the assumption they will be able to expand credit at similar historical rates

• The US economy will slow materially due to crude oil pulling down industrial production, as well as higher interest rates weighing on the consumer and US housing

• US and Global Excess liquidity will drag equities lower, resulting in a bid for bonds

• The Federal Reserve will likely get cold feet and backtrack as they recognize the economy is slowing

• CTA and momentum players should continue to cover their shorts, in turn flipping momentum positive

• Technically, US bonds are bottoming and have very favorable risk reward profiles over the following months

Given the above, we assign an 84% probability to 10 year rates falling to 2.3% from 3.06% over the next 6-8 months, before pausing and ultimately moving lower if our thesis is correct. Below we outline this thesis and seek to disprove the current bear argument.

WHAT THE MARKETS ARE SAYING

A large part of our process is relying on factions of the market to give us a pulse of the global economy, as well as our thesis. Currently, many of these market groups and ratios are indicating that rates should be materially lower. We can see this domestically via US leadership, as defensive sectors like utilities and staples have been out performing cyclicals such as financials and industrials. This ratio has historically been highly correlated to US rates and is currently indicating the US 10 year should trade closer to 2.3%, as shown below.

Regional banks (KRE) are also providing the same indication, as KRE/SPY puts the US 10 year closer to 2.2%.

Copper to gold says something similar, with rates around 2.4%.

And our bond proxy – utilities – puts bonds prices significantly higher, thus rates lower.

We believe the markets are beginning to price in the current and developing slowdown in China, as well as higher rates in the US, which are weighing on housing and the US consumer. We see the bonds responding over the next six to eight months.

CHINA

In our view, China is the most important driver of global growth and the cycle. From 2012-2016 it made up ~34% of global GDP growth, more than the US, Europe, and Japan combined. It now represents roughly 70% of all manufacturing in Asian emerging markets, and is the largest importer of ~50 countries, up from 5 a decade ago. This growth has primarily been driven by an unprecedented amount of credit creation, which over the past two years has become much more of an interest to us.

Breaking down the credit data below, we can see that Chinese credit creation has fallen from its peak of 21.3% YoY in Q216 to 8.34% YoY. While 8.34% YoY is still quite high, it is the rate of change that drives the cycle.

To put this in perspective, let’s look at the past year. The difference in the rate of change of credit created from October 2017 (+12.8% YoY) to October 2018 (+8.34% YoY) is equivalent to $940bn dollars, or roughly 7.7% of China’s GDP and 17% of their stock market. From the high in Q216, the rate of change has fallen by $1.9T, or 34% of China’s market cap.

This, however, is just the rate of change. Total credit creation over the past year is still strong at $2.55T YoY, equivalent to 21% of GDP and 11% of the S&P500.

We see this as the primary driver of the global cycle and it is backed up by the data. As you can see below, China’s credit creation leads our global industrial production breadth indicator by roughly 8 months. This indicator is designed to measure the strength of 23 OECD countries by taking the percentage that are growing over the prior year (breadth). Currently, the indicator stands at only 20% that are growing over the prior year and will likely trend lower over the next 8 months given the historical lead.

We are monitoring China’s credit creation over the next few months as there is a decent probability that it turns higher given the leading relationship of China’s bank reserve rate requirements (RRR). As you can see below, China’s RRR cuts typically leads total credit creation by roughly 5 months, which lines up with January (+/- 1 mo) being the turning point. Should we see an uptick in credit creation, this will likely start filtering through the economic data roughly 9-12 months later or towards the end of 2019. The prior uptick in credit started in June of 2015, which then found its way in the global PMI data in June of 2016. Equities began to price this uptick in in February of 2016, leading by roughly 4 months. Assuming the data follows this historical cycle, international equities should begin to sniff out a pickup in global growth in the second half of 2019, which is when excess liquidity also begins to improve as well (elaborated on below).

US ECONOMY

Over the next 12 months we see the US economy slowing materially, as the recent move in crude drags down industrial production and rising interest rates continue to hamper housing and the consumer. Crude’s 26% decline should have a material adverse effect on US industrial production given roughly 70% of IP growth over the past year has been concentrated in crude related line items. The move implies IP should fall to ~2.2% from 4.1% in October, which is consistent with 2.3% on the 10yr — in line with where most other markets are currently pricing rates.

We are also beginning to see signs of deterioration in the housing market and retail sales, which will likely continue for the next 12 months, as higher interest rates further pressure consumption. Below we’ve overlaid consumer buying conditions for homes versus new homes sales. As you can see, buying conditions lead new home sales by roughly 2 years, indicating sales will continue to be pressured for the foreseeable future. This is showing up in the lumber market, with prices roughly 44% of their highs. Historically, lumber has been one of the best leads on the economy and US interest rates. It is currently pricing in the 10yr closer to 2.2%.

The same relationship is true for autos, as buying conditions have deteriorated, which will likely further pressure retail sales, as autos make up 20% of the aggregate. While auto sales have recently weighed on retail sales, top line numbers have remained resilient; however, we see some volume deterioration under the surface. As shown below, retail sales volumes – or retail sales adjusting for the price of inflation – have fallen materially. We derive this by taking the individual line items of retail sales and adjusting them for respective gains in inflation. For example, furniture, electronics and appliances were up 1.24% YoY in the most recent retail sales report, but inflation of those items was up 3.07%, indicating volume growth was negative. As you can see below, volumes are growing marginally above 1%, which is near the lowest level of this cycle.

There is a high probability that those volumes continue to deteriorate given HY spreads YoY lead retail sales by roughly six months, as shown below.

While the economic data looks to be deteriorating, we are also seeing a significant drop in excess liquidity.

LIQUIDITY

Global liquidity should cap gains and pull equities lower over the next 12 months, as it is currently the lowest of the cycle. We can see this below via our excess liquidity indicator, which seeks to measure the dollars freely available to flow into markets. As excess liquidity rises, equities rise as there is ample money around, and vice versa. We are now witnessing the largest liquidity contraction in the past five years, which has historically led US equities by roughly 12-14 months – indicating that returns in 2019 should be quite poor. We see this providing a bid for bonds and an increase in flows, which the market is currently not discounting, specifically over the next 6 months.

On top of this, we see the largest bidder – US corporates – going dark over the next 12 months as BBB spreads are indicating that buybacks should slow significantly, shown below. This is quite concerning as buybacks have totaled roughly $4.4 T since the beginning of the cycle, and ~$655Bn over the past year, representing over 80% of the bid to the market according to Bridgewater.

FED

Given the scenario outlined above, it seems highly probably that the Fed will begin to reverse course over the next 3-4 months, as both the equity market and fundamental data give them pause. But just like a large ship, it takes time for the Fed to move from one direction to the next, so the next step will be to walk back hikes in 2019 and possibly their balance sheet unwind. We see this scenario as being quite bullish for bonds, as most of the damage of the rate hikes is already filtering through the system. While the current perception of the fundamental backdrop is quite positive, we see the Fed’s reversal as a catalyst for the questioning of current conditions, and during this twilight period, the economic data should continue to deteriorate, which will then likely lead to a participant understanding that their thesis is likely incorrect.

CTA/Momentum players

We see the first 1/3 of the move in rates happening in short order due to the recent dynamics of CTAs and algos in the markets. Recent price action has been quite interesting, as bonds have failed to be bid despite risk off in equities and most markets implying rates much lower. We think this is due to CTA and algo momentum models driving price to a directional extreme, leading to record positioning that is then subsequently reversed in quick order. We have seen this over the past year in S&Ps, the Vix, copper, gold and recently in crude. We think bonds are next.

Technicals

Technically, bonds look quite attractive as they’ve recently completed a weekly downside Demark 9. Historically, weekly downside 9’s have had an 85% positive hit rate over 60 trading days, which brings us into early February – where we see the majority of the move in yields happening by.

We are also seeing some positive divergences on our Bermuda Vol model, as shown below. This tracks momentum across multiple time frames and has flipped positive from the lower bands across the 20, 40, and 60 day.

Bear Thesis

Treasury Issuance 

The market is currently very concerned about the fiscal deficit leading to large increases in treasury issuance. Estimates are for deficits of roughly ~$900bn on average per year out to 2023. Assuming this operating thesis and the numbers are correct, 10 and 30 year supply will only see a marginal increase, as they represent roughly 4.4% of gross issuances. Bills on the other hand represent roughly 78% of total issuance. Therefore, a large scale deficit blow out will pressure short rates, which is debatably bullish for the long end, as higher short rates squeeze economic growth.

Lack of Foreign Demand

The second leg of the bearish case for bonds is that foreign demand is slowing due to hedged returns that are now negative. This is factually correct and a concern on the demand side. That said, looking out over the next 12-14 months we do not see this being an issue. Hedging costs are essentially the difference between Fed Funds and the European Deposit rate, as well as the BOJ’s overnight call rate. During the past few cycles, hedged yields have compressed similar to the yield curve and then reversed as the Fed began to cut rates. Given our economic view, there is a high probability that these reverse as well and provide positive returns to foreign investors as the spread between Central bank rates have reached what look like their historical limits.

It should also be noted that the unhedged rate differentials between the US 10yr and the Bund recently hit an all time high of  2.78%, and 3.05% for JGBs – the highest of this cycle

Fed Balance Sheet 

Last, but not least. is the Fed’s balance sheet unwind causing a large increase in supply, thus sending rates higher. Intuitively this would make sense, but historically looking at the data from periods of QE does not support this assertion. For example, from the beginning to end of QE1, the Fed purchased $277bn of treasury bonds, and rates rose by 22% (2.77% to 3.38%). QE3 saw the same thing, as $763bn in purchases led to a 31% rise in rates. QE2’s $844bn purchases did see rates move lower; however, it was only towards the tail end of the purchase program that they went negative – the first $803bn saw rates rise by 20%.

The point here is that we see rates being driven by the economic cycle versus changes in supply. We do not see the Fed unwind leading to a sharp rise in rates due to our view that the US economic data will continue to deteriorate through Q219. There is also a decent chance that the Fed begins to pause on unwinding its balance sheet; however, this is not integral to our thesis.

Conclusion

Given our thesis above, we see rates falling materially over the next 6-8 months before pausing or taking a brief time out. The next leg will largely be determined by China’s ability to expand credit and drive growth, which will be apparent in the data over the subsequent months. Looking out into the second half of 2019, there is still a high probability that the S&P 500 (2,736) moves lower due to poor liquidity conditions and falling EPS estimates – this is very supportive of bonds, which are technically set up for a strong move higher.

Over the next 8 months, we think it is safe to buy bonds and chill.

via RSS http://bit.ly/2MbckLx Tyler Durden

President Trump on Monday said he “never worked for Russia” after reports in the New York Times and Washington Post revived the dying collusion narrative. The Times on Friday revealed that the FBI retaliated against Trump for lawfully firing FBI Director James Comey – focusing on potential Kremlin ties, while the Post reported that Trump went to great lengths to conceal the details of his face-to-face encounters with Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

Speaking at the White House before departing for New Orleans, Trump told reporters that he never worked for Russia, and that the WaPo report was false. 

“I never worked for Russia,” ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ says and calls the question disgraceful. pic.twitter.com/ZDvSJwXIlZ

— Jeff Mason (@jeffmason1) January 14, 2019

On Saturday, Trump tweeted “Wow, just learned in the Failing New York Times that the corrupt former leaders of the FBI, almost all fired or forced to leave the agency for some very bad reasons, opened up an investigation on me, for no reason & with no proof, after I fired Lyin’ James Comey, a total sleaze!”

Wow, just learned in the Failing New York Times that the corrupt former leaders of the FBI, almost all fired or forced to leave the agency for some very bad reasons, opened up an investigation on me, for no reason & with no proof, after I fired Lyin’ James Comey, a total sleaze!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 12, 2019

Speaking with Fox News’ Jeanine Pirro on Saturday, Trump called the Times article “the most insulting thing I’ve ever had written.” 

Trump on the NYT article about the FBI counterintelligence investigation: “I think it’s the most insulting thing I’ve ever been asked. I think it’s the most insulting article I’ve ever had written.” pic.twitter.com/F0QUu1oRhG

— John Whitehouse (@existentialfish) January 13, 2019

Trump went on an epic tweetstorm Saturday following the Times article, defending his 2017 firing of former FBI Director James Comey, and tweeting that he has been “FAR tougher on Russia than Obama, Bush or Clinton. Maybe tougher than any other President. At the same time, & as I have often said, getting along with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing. I fully expect that someday we will have good relations with Russia again!” 

I have been FAR tougher on Russia than Obama, Bush or Clinton. Maybe tougher than any other President. At the same time, & as I have often said, getting along with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing. I fully expect that someday we will have good relations with Russia again!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 12, 2019

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Turkey has brushed off a Sunday threat by President Trump to “devastate” them economically if they attack the Kurdish militia (YPG) in northern Syria, which US forces have fought alongside against the Islamic State (IS). 

Turkey regards the YPG as terrorists. 

Starting the long overdue pullout from Syria while hitting the little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate hard, and from many directions. Will attack again from existing nearby base if it reforms. Will devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds. Create 20 mile safe zone….

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 13, 2019

“You cannot get anywhere by threatening Turkey economically,” said Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. 

Trump announced in December that the US would withdraw all troops from Syria as the Islamic State had been “defeated,” a move which shocked allies and resulted in the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. Concerns remain that Kurds from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are are under YPG leadership, would fall under attack by Turkey once the US withdraws. 

The warning to Turkey came as Ankara has mustered military forces, including tank regiments, along the Syrian border and deep in Afrin after last year’s ‘Operation Olive Branch’ plunged pro-Turkish forces across the border inside Syrian Kurdish enclaves.

Last week Turkey’s leaders, including the defense minister, described preparations underway for another major Turkish assault on US-backed Kurdish positions east of the Euphrates, following the exit of American advisers based on Trump’s previously announced pullout. That said, Trump said on Sunday that he would thwart any Turkish invasion plans with a “20 mile safe zone,” 

Presumably this “safe zone” will be towards protecting American forces while precise exit logistics take shape, and will occur simultaneously to the US pounding remnant ISIS positions; however the details remain uncertain. 

Trump followed his tweet with another repeat promise to “stop the endless wars!” — in what appears a further sign he’s currently in a fight with the deep state and hawks within his own administration over Syria policy. 

….Likewise, do not want the Kurds to provoke Turkey. Russia, Iran and Syria have been the biggest beneficiaries of the long term U.S. policy of destroying ISIS in Syria – natural enemies. We also benefit but it is now time to bring our troops back home. Stop the ENDLESS WARS!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 13, 2019

Could the US really hurt Turkey’s economy?

Ankara has rebuffed Trump’s threats, with Çavuşoğlu saying: “We have said multiple times that we will not fear or be deterred by any threat,” and that “Strategic alliances should not be discussed over Twitter or social media.”

That said, previous US sanctions have hurt Turkey in the past. In August, the Trump administration slapped Turkey with sanctions and trade tariffs while a US pastor was detained, which caused the Lira to fall precipitously. Two months later, Pastor Andrew Brunson was released. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, meanwhile, said through a spokesman that he expected the US to “honor our strategic partnership,” adding “Terrorists can’t be your partners and allies.” 

Over the weekend, before Mr Trump’s latest tweets, Mr Pompeo said he had spoken to Mr Cavusoglu by phone and was “optimistic” that an agreement could be reached with Turkey to protect Kurdish fighters.

Mr Pompeo said the US recognised “the Turkish people’s right and Mr Erdogan’s right to defend their country from terrorists”.

“We also know that those fighting alongside us for all this time deserve to be protected as well,” he added.

Mr Erdogan has spoken angrily about American support for the Kurdish YPG militia, and vowed to crush it.

Mr Cavusoglu said Turkey was “not against” the idea of a secure zone – but was targeting “a terrorist organisation trying to divide Syria”. –BBC

There are currently around 2,000 US military personnel deployed in northern Syria, which first arrived in autumn 2015 when former President Obama sent in small teams of special forces to train and advise YPG fighters. The move came after several failed attempts at arming and training Syrian Arab rebel groups to battle IS militants. In the ensuing years, the number of US troops in Syria sharply increased – while a network of airfields and bases have been established in an arc across the northeastern region of the country. 

via RSS http://bit.ly/2D9JAQo Tyler Durden

Right around the market peaked on September 2018, Oaktree’s iconic founder Howard Marks published a letter to investors in which he warned that the market conditions made it “a time for caution”, to wit:

I’m absolutely not saying people shouldn’t invest today, or shouldn’t invest in debt. Oaktree’s mantra recently has been, and continues to be, “move forward, but with caution.” The outlook is not so bad, and asset prices are not so high, that one should be in cash or near-cash. The penalty in terms of likely opportunity cost is just too great to justify being out of the markets.

But for me, the import of all the above is that investors should favor strategies, managers and approaches that emphasize limiting losses in declines above ensuring full participation in gains. You simply can’t have it both ways. Just about everything in the investment world can be done either aggressively or defensively. In my view, market conditions make this a time for caution.

In retrospect, one correction and one (short) bear market later, Marks was right, and on Monday speaking at a Bank of Singapore event, Marks recapped what happened, saying “we had one of the most violent downdrafts” that “I had ever seen,” Marks said. “Nothing much changed except people were first ignoring the bad news and then they were obsessing about the bad news.”

So having anticipated, if not exactly predicted, said “violent downdraft”, what was Oaktree – which was building up cash for precisely such an event – doing? Why buying with both hands.

As Bloomberg writes, while some traders say you should never try to catch a falling knife, Howard Marks begs to differ, noting that “that’s exactly what investors should be doing” and adding that the recent sell-off in U.S. equities was a case in point. As timing the bottom is impossible, the trick is to buy assets as they decline, before they start to appreciate, Marks said.

“I like things better when they are on sale, so December was a better time to buy,” he said. “I don’t believe that prices having been rising is a reason to buy, and I also don’t think the fact that prices have been falling is a reason to sell. And if anything, some of the overpricing was reduced a little bit.”

“When stores put goods on sale, I buy more,” Marks said during Monday’s event. “Why would you possibly want to buy more at rising prices?”

Well, because that kind of “safety in numbers” is precisely what investor – and central bank – psychology is all about, and why it remains rather “complicated” to become a billionaire on Wall Street.

Among Marks’ other observations, which should be familiar to readers of his periodic letter, the Oaktree investor said that while markets are not at extreme bubble levels and so are unlikely to see extreme crashes, because we’re in the “eighth inning” of the market cycle, now is a time to be more cautious than aggressive, repeating precisely what he said in September.

He said the rout in U.S. shares in the fourth quarter of last year was an example of how sentiment can suddenly shift from excessive optimism to excessive pessimism, even though fundamentals didn’t change. The S&P 500 Index tumbled almost 20 percent from late September through a low on Christmas Eve. Since then, it recovered more than 10 percent through Friday’s close.

Marks also made some macro observations, noting that contrary to market expectations of a rate cut as soon as 2020, the Fed is likely to continue to raise interest rates but not as fast as in recent times, as “uncertainty is higher now than usual” while many large macro uncertainties and it’s time to be cautious. As a result, Oaktree is trending towards distressed debts and value investors and “things are not as expensive as six months ago

Oaktree, which secured new investor capital of about $8.5 billion in 2015 to prepare for market duress, started deploying some of that money over the past year, however Marks didn’t say where he was investing the capital. 

With the recent rebound in risk assets, Marks said he’s unsure how quickly Oaktree will invest its funds. At a discussion earlier in the day in Singapore, he said trends are favoring distressed-debt and value investors, though “we are not there yet.”

Echoing Jeff Gundlach, Marks said that emerging markets generally and Asian markets are relatively cheap, adding that Oaktree is giving “a lot of attention” to emerging-market stocks and bonds.

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The outspoken liberal mayor of the northern Polish city of Gdańsk, Paweł Adamowicz, died today after being stabbed on stage in front of thousands of people during a charity concert.

Video footage of the incident shows the assailant addressing the crowd from a microphone on the stage. He is reported as saying:

“Hello! Hello! My name is Stefan. I sat innocent in prison, I sat innocent in prison. Civic Platform tortured me, and that’s why Adamowicz is dead.”

The suspect, who was released from prison last month after serving a sentence for bank robberies, was immediately detained.

According to police sources quoted by Polish news broadcaster TVN24, the assailant is understood to have been planning the attack for some time.

Adamowicz was a powerful liberal voice in a country that has been governed by the rightwing Law and Justice party since 2015. He is best known in Poland and internationally as a staunch supporter of LGBT rights and the rights of migrants and refugees during a period of rising anti-migrant sentiment.

“I am a European so my nature is to be open,” Adamowicz told the Guardian in 2016.

This is the first assassination of a high-ranking Polish politician, while in office, since communism ended in 1989.

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A major military aviation disaster has unfolded in Iran on Monday at an airport belonging to Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The Iranian army confirms 15 dead after a Boeing 707 military cargo plane crashed reportedly due to bad weather about 25 miles west of the Iranian capital. 

Of the sixteen people on board, one survived — a flight engineer who was taken to the hospital — in the crash near Fath airport, located near Karaj in the central Iranian province of Alborz.

Reports say that the plane attempted an emergency landing after which it skidded off the runway and into a residential neighborhood where it slammed into a wall and engulfed in flames. State media footage showed residential homes and complexes burning amidst the wreckage. 

The army said in a statement the aircraft had been carrying supplies: “A Boeing cargo 707 plane carrying meat from Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan had an emergency landing at Fath airport today … the flight engineer has been dispatched to the hospital.”

“It exited the runway during the landing and caught fire after hitting the wall at the end of the runway,” it said. Though according to Reuters there were initially conflicting reports over who owned the plane, an army spokesman later confirmed the aircraft was owned by the government of Iran and that all aboard were Iranian citizens.

Video footage of the Kyrgyz Boeing 707 cargo plane crashing near the city of Shahriar, west of Tehran, #Iran.
10 on board reportedly killed. Reports indicate seven bodies have been recovered.

Voice heard saying: “Don’t take any footage!” pic.twitter.com/bxlSnTr0IU

— ALI (@AliSalari1965) January 14, 2019

Regional reports called the aircraft “decades old” — which suggests Washington’s latest rounds of sanctions on Iran, targeting in part the aviation industry including civilian airplane parts, could have played a role. A number of international reports are already suggesting precisely this scenario: 

The crash of the jetliner marked just the latest aviation disaster for Iran, which hoped to replace its aging fleet under terms of the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

But instead, President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the accord in May scuttled billions of dollars in planned sales by Airbus and Boeing Co. to the Islamic Republic, only increasing the danger for passengers in Iran planes.

Given that the Iranian air force does operate Boeing 707s and that state media and officials have used the word “martyrdom” to describe the fate of the crash victims — a word commonly used for casualties during military service — it was likely an air force owned and operated aircraft. 

But it is perhaps only a matter of time before other tragic aviation disasters hit Iran’s civilian passenger side given the impact of sanctions, which Tehran has sought relief from through Europe. 

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