D.C. High Court Strikes Down Order Temporarily Blocking Facebook from Disclosing Existence of Subpoena

From Wednesday’s decision in Facebook, Inc. v. Pepe, handed down by a three-judge panel of the D.C. Court of Appeals (D.C.’s equivalent of a state supreme court):

Mr. Pepe’s subpoena sought evidence from Facebook supporting his defense to then-pending criminal charges arising out of the shooting of Marquette Brown on December 6, 2018. Mr. Pepe claimed he shot in self-defense after Mr. Brown and his associates, who had been threatening him, surrounded him on an A6 bus and pursued him when he got off and tried to walk away from them.

Shortly before this encounter, Brown allegedly sent Pepe a disappearing Instagram “Story” in which Brown menacingly bragged that he had been carrying a weapon during one of their previous confrontations and warned Pepe not to ride the A6 bus. Mr. Pepe had not preserved and no longer possessed this Story. It was not included in the voluminous records that Facebook had produced to the government from Mr. Pepe’s Instagram account in response to a search warrant (which records the government turned over to Mr. Pepe in pretrial discovery).

In an effort to obtain the evanescent Instagram Story and other potentially helpful evidence of Brown’s threats, Mr. Pepe asked the Superior Court to authorize an ex parte subpoena to Facebook …. {As we understand Facebook’s counsel to have clarified at oral argument, a Story that has expired from both the sender’s and the recipient’s platform may still be archived by Instagram within the sender’s account and therefore be producible by Facebook even if it is inaccessible to the sender.} The subpoena sought (1) communications from Brown’s Instagram account to Pepe’s account, and (2) non-content information pertaining to Brown’s account, such as message headers identifying other Instagram accounts with which Brown had communicated around the time of the shooting. The trial court approved the ex parte subpoena and found that “exceptional circumstances” existed to dispense with requiring notice of the subpoena to Brown….

Facebook moved to quash the subpoena, but lost on that; and the court also ordered Facebook not to disclose the existence of the subpoena to anyone (including the prosecution and Brown) until it had complied with it. (Facebook had said it wanted “to disclose the existence of the ex parte subpoena to the government or Mr. Brown so it could explore whether the requested information could be procured without the subpoena—for example, if the government were to obtain a warrant for the information and thereafter produce it to Mr. Pepe.)

[T]he trial court found “(1) that Mr. Pepe has a compelling interest in having his defense theory, strategy, and investigation remain confidential, that (2) sealing would serve that interest, (3) that in the absence of sealing, that interest would be harmed, and (4) that there are no alternatives to sealing.” The court further found, as required by Rule 17(c)(3), that “exceptional circumstances” justified not giving notice of the subpoena to Mr. Brown, “including the likelihood that ‘evidence might be lost or destroyed … or where the defense would be unfairly prejudiced by premature disclosure of a sensitive defense strategy.'” Accordingly, the court ordered Facebook not to disclose the existence of the subpoena to any other person or entity, with the exception of its own counsel, until after Facebook had complied with the subpoena….

[W]itnesses and other third parties in possession of evidence relating to a civil or criminal proceeding generally have a robust First Amendment right, whether they are under subpoena or not, to speak freely about their knowledge and their involvement in the proceeding whenever and with whomever they please. This right extends to sharing the evidence they possess with either side in the litigation; witnesses do not belong to one side or the other. We do not say the right is absolute; in exceptional circumstances it may be subject to reasonable curtailment. But deviations from the norm of non-constraint require strong justification.

The judicial order in this case mandated that Facebook refrain from discussing the subpoena for its evidence with anyone (except its counsel). Such a “naked prohibition against disclosure[]” of its involvement in this litigation “is fairly characterized as a regulation of pure speech.” That regulation is both content-based, because it prohibits the discussion of a particular topic (the subpoena), and a prior restraint on speech, as it “forbid[s] certain communications … in advance of the time that such communications are to occur” or before the speaker has the opportunity to make them. Content-based prior restraints are normally subject to review under strict scrutiny, and prior restraints come with a “heavy presumption” against their constitutional validity. A content-based prior restraint violates the First Amendment unless it serves a compelling state interest and is narrowly tailored so as to “limit[] speech as little as possible.” …

Mr. Pepe cites cases arising in other contexts—e.g., where a litigant or third party seeks to disclose confidential information learned in discovery—in which the would-be speaker’s involvement in litigation or investigation has been held to allow restraints on speech under a standard somewhat less rigorous than strict scrutiny. In one such context (involving orders or regulations restraining speech about pending trial matters by prosecutors or defense attorneys), that standard has been articulated as requiring a litigant to show that without the order a “substantial likelihood of prejudice” will result….

The [Stored Communications Act] cases concerning similar government requests have rejected the application of standards less exacting than strict scrutiny. For example, in Matter of Search Warrant for [redacted].com, the court acknowledged that a § 2705(b) nondisclosure order was “akin to a protective order limiting the disclosure of information learned in pretrial discovery,” yet still applied strict scrutiny because, unlike in the protective order context, the service provider did not “‘gather’ the information in question from the government, with the aim of advancing [their] interests in a lawsuit;” that is, the provider, like Facebook in this case, did not itself choose to obtain the information in question…. While a defendant’s subpoena may not implicate privacy concerns identical to the law enforcement surveillance of internet users’ electronic activity, the court approval of a private litigant’s gaining access to the account information and communications of others certainly implicates “core” First Amendment issues of governmental affairs and accountability.

We do not deny the possibility that the risks Mr. Pepe identified could be great enough to pose a substantial likelihood of prejudice to his defense and/or satisfy the compelling interest test. {See In re Search Warrant Issued to Google, Inc., 269 F. Supp. 3d at 1215 (§ 2705(b) order to prevent destruction or tampering with evidence or interference with investigation would satisfy compelling interest test). Nor do we intend to cast doubt on the propriety, under the First Amendment, of the relatively routine issuance, at the trial court’s discretion, of protective orders in Superior Court over the government and the defense themselves where a party makes a “particularized, specific showing” that pretrial disclosure of certain materials would interfere with the privacy interests of others, posing a concrete risk of harm. United States v. Dixon, 355 F. Supp. 3d 1, 4 (D.D.C. 2019); see also Harris v. United States, 594 A.2d 546, 549 (D.C. 1991) (holding “it was not unreasonable for the trial court to place a temporary and limited restriction” on defense counsel’s sharing of potential Jencks Act material with his client “during the period of time it took the court to complete the screening of that material”). We see no reason why a showing of such a protectable interest would not ordinarily be sufficient to indicate that the order is “necessary to ensure a fair trial … or prevent the abuse of the discovery process.”}

Generally speaking, criminal defendants “should be permitted to make an ex parte application for pretrial production of documents” under Rule 17 “where notice of a subpoena duces tecum would compromise defense counsel’s trial strategy.” And, in assessing whether further nondisclosure orders over the subpoena are justified, or whether notice to a victim should be delayed under Rule 17(c)(3), attention to circumstances where notification could result in evidence spoliation is important. If a third-party subject to a discovery order loses or destroys evidence, it might prove difficult to fashion appropriate remedial sanctions, unlike circumstances in which courts can address, through sanctions or dismissal, the government’s failure to preserve discoverable evidence.

Merely raising these risks, however, is not enough to support the curtailment of a subpoenaed party’s First Amendment rights. As the Superior Court noted, the government was fully aware that Mr. Pepe was asserting a self-defense theory, and defense counsel had even emphasized the potential strength of the defense claim to the government. The government may have been unaware of the nature of the photo and video evidence Mr. Pepe sought, but it is unclear (and he has not shown) how his defense would have been harmed if the government were to learn of it. {A party’s common strategic desire to keep potentially favorable evidence under wraps until the eve of trial is not a substitute for a showing that pre-trial disclosure of the evidence at issue in this case would in some way “compromise defense counsel’s trial strategy.” Superior Court Criminal Rule 16 provides that if a party intends to “use the [evidence] in [their] case-in-chief at trial” they must permit their opponent to inspect it upon their opponent’s request.}

Moreover, it is far from a foregone conclusion that the government would have learned what Mr. Pepe was seeking had Facebook been permitted to inform the government of the existence of the subpoena. The subpoena does not disclose that information, and the [Stored Communications Act] likely would have prevented Facebook from disclosing the contents of the requested communications and records to the government without a warrant or the consent of either Mr. Pepe or Mr. Brown. So Mr. Pepe did not establish a substantial risk that Facebook’s disclosure of the existence of his subpoena to the government would even result in revealing any additional details of his self-defense strategy.

Mr. Pepe also did not show an appreciable risk of spoliation. It is true that at the time the Superior Court entered the nondisclosure order, Facebook had not yet represented that it had secured the requested materials, leaving their alteration or destruction a conceivable possibility. However, the likelihood that notice of the subpoena to the government or Mr. Brown would have led to interference with or the deletion of the evidence Mr. Pepe sought was speculative. We think it highly unlikely that informing only the government of the subpoena would have introduced any risk of spoliation; the government would have no interest in allowing evidence to be destroyed and therefore no interest in informing Mr. Brown or his associates of the request without appropriate precautions.

Nor does the record make clear that Mr. Brown or others would have been able to destroy information in Facebook’s possession responsive to the subpoena even if they wanted to do so. {We must discount, as entirely hypothetical, the possibility that Brown, or his associates, might have been inspired and able to destroy other, unknown electronic evidence of value to the defense.} But even assuming the danger of spoliation of the subpoenaed material was sufficient to justify a protective order of some kind and duration before Facebook secured that material, that danger would, and did, cease after Facebook did so.

Because Facebook had the ability to preserve the information subject to Mr. Pepe’s request, the order barring disclosure until after Facebook had complied with the subpoena was more restrictive than was “essential to the protection of the particular [defense] interest involved,” and therefore interfered excessively with Facebook’s First Amendment rights. It would have been enough for the order to allow disclosure on Facebook’s assurance (which it provided when it first appealed the nondisclosure order) that it had preserved the requested materials from possible loss or destruction.

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Overcapacity / Oversupply Everywhere: Massive Deflation Dead Ahead

Overcapacity / Oversupply Everywhere: Massive Deflation Dead Ahead

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The price of a great many assets will crash, out of proportion to the decline in demand.

Oil is the poster child of the forces driving massive deflation: overcapacity / oversupply and a collapse in demand. Overcapacity / oversupply and a collapse in demand are not limited to the crude oil market; rather, they are the dominant realities in the global economy.

Yes, there are shortages in a few high-demand areas such as PPE (personal protective equipment), but across the entire spectrum of global supply and demand, there is nothing but a vast sea of overcapacity / oversupply and a systemic decline in demand as far as the eye can see.

Here’s a partial list of commodities that are in Overcapacity / oversupply:

1. Overvalued assets

2. Overpriced income streams (as income craters, so will the asset generating the income)

3. Labor: low-skill everywhere, high-skill in sectors experiencing systemic collapse in demand

4. AirBnB and other vacation rental properties

5. Overpriced flats, condos and houses

6. Overpriced rental apartments

7. Overpriced commercial office space

8. Overpriced retail space

9. Overpriced used vehicles

10. Overpriced collectibles

I think you get the idea.

Should China restart its export factories, then almost everything being manufactured will immediately be in oversupply, as the global export sector was plagued with mass overcapacity long before the Covid-19 pandemic crushed demand.

Incomes will crater as revenues and profits crash, small businesses close their doors, never to re-open, local governments tighten spending, and whatever competition still exists will relentlessly push the price of labor, goods and services lower.

Globalization has generated hyper-specialization in local and regional economies, stripping them of resilience. Fully exposed to the demand flows of a globalized class of consumers with surplus discretionary income, regions specialized in tourism, manufacturing, commodity mining, etc.

All these regions are now facing a structural collapse of global demand, and they have no diversified local economy to cushion the blow to jobs, incomes, profits and tax revenues.

Thousands of small business that could barely squeak through a 20% decline in revenues are facing a 50% or more decline as far as the eye can see. With costs such as rent, labor, fees, taxes and healthcare at nosebleed levels, an enormously consequential number of small businesses globally cannot survive more than a modest, brief drop in revenues, as their costs remain high even as their sales plummet: costs are sticky, profits slide quickly to zero and beyond.

What’s scarce:

1. low-risk, high-yield assets

2. Low-cost hedges against the collapse of asset valuations

3. Investment income streams that survive the collapse of demand and asset valuations

Here is a weekly chart of crude oil (WTIC). Note the weakening of price as the global economy slowed in 2018-2019, the modest rise as the Federal Reserve began “not QE” printing of currency in September 2019, and the complete collapse as oil producers jockeyed for control via crushing price wars/over-production and global demand plummeted.

This is the future of vast swaths of the global economy: labor, commodities, assets, goods and services, and the tax revenues that are skimmed from the private sector, will all crash as supply far exceeds demand.

The price of a great many assets will crash, out of proportion to the decline in demand. Only the global top 10% can afford to buy pricey vacation homes, for example, and as the top 10% own 90% of the assets that are melting away like ice cubes in Death Valley, when their ability and willingness to buy assets they can no longer afford vanishes, the market price of those assets can fall 90% or even to zero.

You’ll know this moment has arrived when you see once-expensive sailboats and pleasure craft abandoned and drifting, as the owners can no longer afford the dock fees and can’t sell the craft. To quote Jackson Browne: Don’t think it won’t happen just because it hasn’t happened yet.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden

Fri, 04/17/2020 – 11:40

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Morgan Stanley Pours Cold Water On Tesla Rally, Calls Share Price “Excessive”

Morgan Stanley Pours Cold Water On Tesla Rally, Calls Share Price “Excessive”

When Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is the one coming out and pouring cold water a Tesla rally, you know things must really be getting out of hand.

But such was the case Friday morning when Jonas called the recent move higher in Tesla shares “excessive” given the company’s earnings and demand headwinds this year. 

Jonas wrote in his note that the stock is discounting volume of roughly 4 million units by 2030 by pricing the stock at nearly $750. Jonas’ price target of $440 is based on slightly more than 2 million units, he noted.

Jonas was quick to point out that investors view Tesla’s valuation as reasonable because they are comparing it to megacap technology stocks. He warned that investors need to consider significant inherent differences between Tesla’s business model and the capital intensive nature of the business. 

He concluded his note by reminding readers that Tesla faces execution risk to many of its business objectives that could be higher than many mature companies. 

He didn’t, surprisingly, mention the Elon Musk/Covid-19 public relations sh*tshow that has been unfolding over the last couple of weeks. For example, yesterday we pointed out that Musk reportedly had only made donations to hospitals fighting the virus if they would thank him publicly on social media.

Jonas appears to be suffering from multiple personality disorder, as well. Back in February we noted that he had revised his bull case target on Tesla to $1200 per share – one month after setting it at $650. 

Morgan Stanley faces off against Goldman Sachs, who upgraded Tesla just days ago on April 14 with a $864 price target. In that upgrade, Goldman said: “We are positive on Tesla because we believe that the company has a significant product lead in EVs, which is a market where we expect long-term secular growth.”

Goldman analyst Mark Delaney added:  “We also note that Tesla’s EBITDA margin in 2021E screens relatively well vs. these peers.”

Let’s see how that screen looks when the 2021 actual numbers start rolling in. In the interim, we think we know who the lead bookrunner for Tesla’s next capital raise will be.


Tyler Durden

Fri, 04/17/2020 – 11:20

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D.C. High Court Strikes Down Order Temporarily Blocking Facebook from Disclosing Existence of Subpoena

From Wednesday’s decision in Facebook, Inc. v. Pepe, handed down by a three-judge panel of the D.C. Court of Appeals (D.C.’s equivalent of a state supreme court):

Mr. Pepe’s subpoena sought evidence from Facebook supporting his defense to then-pending criminal charges arising out of the shooting of Marquette Brown on December 6, 2018. Mr. Pepe claimed he shot in self-defense after Mr. Brown and his associates, who had been threatening him, surrounded him on an A6 bus and pursued him when he got off and tried to walk away from them.

Shortly before this encounter, Brown allegedly sent Pepe a disappearing Instagram “Story” in which Brown menacingly bragged that he had been carrying a weapon during one of their previous confrontations and warned Pepe not to ride the A6 bus. Mr. Pepe had not preserved and no longer possessed this Story. It was not included in the voluminous records that Facebook had produced to the government from Mr. Pepe’s Instagram account in response to a search warrant (which records the government turned over to Mr. Pepe in pretrial discovery).

In an effort to obtain the evanescent Instagram Story and other potentially helpful evidence of Brown’s threats, Mr. Pepe asked the Superior Court to authorize an ex parte subpoena to Facebook …. {As we understand Facebook’s counsel to have clarified at oral argument, a Story that has expired from both the sender’s and the recipient’s platform may still be archived by Instagram within the sender’s account and therefore be producible by Facebook even if it is inaccessible to the sender.} The subpoena sought (1) communications from Brown’s Instagram account to Pepe’s account, and (2) non-content information pertaining to Brown’s account, such as message headers identifying other Instagram accounts with which Brown had communicated around the time of the shooting. The trial court approved the ex parte subpoena and found that “exceptional circumstances” existed to dispense with requiring notice of the subpoena to Brown….

Facebook moved to quash the subpoena, but lost on that; and the court also ordered Facebook not to disclose the existence of the subpoena to anyone (including the prosecution and Brown) until it had complied with it. (Facebook had said it wanted “to disclose the existence of the ex parte subpoena to the government or Mr. Brown so it could explore whether the requested information could be procured without the subpoena—for example, if the government were to obtain a warrant for the information and thereafter produce it to Mr. Pepe.)

[T]he trial court found “(1) that Mr. Pepe has a compelling interest in having his defense theory, strategy, and investigation remain confidential, that (2) sealing would serve that interest, (3) that in the absence of sealing, that interest would be harmed, and (4) that there are no alternatives to sealing.” The court further found, as required by Rule 17(c)(3), that “exceptional circumstances” justified not giving notice of the subpoena to Mr. Brown, “including the likelihood that ‘evidence might be lost or destroyed … or where the defense would be unfairly prejudiced by premature disclosure of a sensitive defense strategy.'” Accordingly, the court ordered Facebook not to disclose the existence of the subpoena to any other person or entity, with the exception of its own counsel, until after Facebook had complied with the subpoena….

[W]itnesses and other third parties in possession of evidence relating to a civil or criminal proceeding generally have a robust First Amendment right, whether they are under subpoena or not, to speak freely about their knowledge and their involvement in the proceeding whenever and with whomever they please. This right extends to sharing the evidence they possess with either side in the litigation; witnesses do not belong to one side or the other. We do not say the right is absolute; in exceptional circumstances it may be subject to reasonable curtailment. But deviations from the norm of non-constraint require strong justification.

The judicial order in this case mandated that Facebook refrain from discussing the subpoena for its evidence with anyone (except its counsel). Such a “naked prohibition against disclosure[]” of its involvement in this litigation “is fairly characterized as a regulation of pure speech.” That regulation is both content-based, because it prohibits the discussion of a particular topic (the subpoena), and a prior restraint on speech, as it “forbid[s] certain communications … in advance of the time that such communications are to occur” or before the speaker has the opportunity to make them. Content-based prior restraints are normally subject to review under strict scrutiny, and prior restraints come with a “heavy presumption” against their constitutional validity. A content-based prior restraint violates the First Amendment unless it serves a compelling state interest and is narrowly tailored so as to “limit[] speech as little as possible.” …

Mr. Pepe cites cases arising in other contexts—e.g., where a litigant or third party seeks to disclose confidential information learned in discovery—in which the would-be speaker’s involvement in litigation or investigation has been held to allow restraints on speech under a standard somewhat less rigorous than strict scrutiny. In one such context (involving orders or regulations restraining speech about pending trial matters by prosecutors or defense attorneys), that standard has been articulated as requiring a litigant to show that without the order a “substantial likelihood of prejudice” will result….

The [Stored Communications Act] cases concerning similar government requests have rejected the application of standards less exacting than strict scrutiny. For example, in Matter of Search Warrant for [redacted].com, the court acknowledged that a § 2705(b) nondisclosure order was “akin to a protective order limiting the disclosure of information learned in pretrial discovery,” yet still applied strict scrutiny because, unlike in the protective order context, the service provider did not “‘gather’ the information in question from the government, with the aim of advancing [their] interests in a lawsuit;” that is, the provider, like Facebook in this case, did not itself choose to obtain the information in question…. While a defendant’s subpoena may not implicate privacy concerns identical to the law enforcement surveillance of internet users’ electronic activity, the court approval of a private litigant’s gaining access to the account information and communications of others certainly implicates “core” First Amendment issues of governmental affairs and accountability.

We do not deny the possibility that the risks Mr. Pepe identified could be great enough to pose a substantial likelihood of prejudice to his defense and/or satisfy the compelling interest test. {See In re Search Warrant Issued to Google, Inc., 269 F. Supp. 3d at 1215 (§ 2705(b) order to prevent destruction or tampering with evidence or interference with investigation would satisfy compelling interest test). Nor do we intend to cast doubt on the propriety, under the First Amendment, of the relatively routine issuance, at the trial court’s discretion, of protective orders in Superior Court over the government and the defense themselves where a party makes a “particularized, specific showing” that pretrial disclosure of certain materials would interfere with the privacy interests of others, posing a concrete risk of harm. United States v. Dixon, 355 F. Supp. 3d 1, 4 (D.D.C. 2019); see also Harris v. United States, 594 A.2d 546, 549 (D.C. 1991) (holding “it was not unreasonable for the trial court to place a temporary and limited restriction” on defense counsel’s sharing of potential Jencks Act material with his client “during the period of time it took the court to complete the screening of that material”). We see no reason why a showing of such a protectable interest would not ordinarily be sufficient to indicate that the order is “necessary to ensure a fair trial … or prevent the abuse of the discovery process.”}

Generally speaking, criminal defendants “should be permitted to make an ex parte application for pretrial production of documents” under Rule 17 “where notice of a subpoena duces tecum would compromise defense counsel’s trial strategy.” And, in assessing whether further nondisclosure orders over the subpoena are justified, or whether notice to a victim should be delayed under Rule 17(c)(3), attention to circumstances where notification could result in evidence spoliation is important. If a third-party subject to a discovery order loses or destroys evidence, it might prove difficult to fashion appropriate remedial sanctions, unlike circumstances in which courts can address, through sanctions or dismissal, the government’s failure to preserve discoverable evidence.

Merely raising these risks, however, is not enough to support the curtailment of a subpoenaed party’s First Amendment rights. As the Superior Court noted, the government was fully aware that Mr. Pepe was asserting a self-defense theory, and defense counsel had even emphasized the potential strength of the defense claim to the government. The government may have been unaware of the nature of the photo and video evidence Mr. Pepe sought, but it is unclear (and he has not shown) how his defense would have been harmed if the government were to learn of it. {A party’s common strategic desire to keep potentially favorable evidence under wraps until the eve of trial is not a substitute for a showing that pre-trial disclosure of the evidence at issue in this case would in some way “compromise defense counsel’s trial strategy.” Superior Court Criminal Rule 16 provides that if a party intends to “use the [evidence] in [their] case-in-chief at trial” they must permit their opponent to inspect it upon their opponent’s request.}

Moreover, it is far from a foregone conclusion that the government would have learned what Mr. Pepe was seeking had Facebook been permitted to inform the government of the existence of the subpoena. The subpoena does not disclose that information, and the [Stored Communications Act] likely would have prevented Facebook from disclosing the contents of the requested communications and records to the government without a warrant or the consent of either Mr. Pepe or Mr. Brown. So Mr. Pepe did not establish a substantial risk that Facebook’s disclosure of the existence of his subpoena to the government would even result in revealing any additional details of his self-defense strategy.

Mr. Pepe also did not show an appreciable risk of spoliation. It is true that at the time the Superior Court entered the nondisclosure order, Facebook had not yet represented that it had secured the requested materials, leaving their alteration or destruction a conceivable possibility. However, the likelihood that notice of the subpoena to the government or Mr. Brown would have led to interference with or the deletion of the evidence Mr. Pepe sought was speculative. We think it highly unlikely that informing only the government of the subpoena would have introduced any risk of spoliation; the government would have no interest in allowing evidence to be destroyed and therefore no interest in informing Mr. Brown or his associates of the request without appropriate precautions.

Nor does the record make clear that Mr. Brown or others would have been able to destroy information in Facebook’s possession responsive to the subpoena even if they wanted to do so. {We must discount, as entirely hypothetical, the possibility that Brown, or his associates, might have been inspired and able to destroy other, unknown electronic evidence of value to the defense.} But even assuming the danger of spoliation of the subpoenaed material was sufficient to justify a protective order of some kind and duration before Facebook secured that material, that danger would, and did, cease after Facebook did so.

Because Facebook had the ability to preserve the information subject to Mr. Pepe’s request, the order barring disclosure until after Facebook had complied with the subpoena was more restrictive than was “essential to the protection of the particular [defense] interest involved,” and therefore interfered excessively with Facebook’s First Amendment rights. It would have been enough for the order to allow disclosure on Facebook’s assurance (which it provided when it first appealed the nondisclosure order) that it had preserved the requested materials from possible loss or destruction.

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Michigan Governor Changes Plan, Says State Will Start Reopening On May 1

Michigan Governor Changes Plan, Says State Will Start Reopening On May 1

Less than one full day has passed since President Trump officially delegated responsibility for reopening their economies to the states, and to our surprise, it appears the first governor to start pushing for a May 1 target to begin reopening is Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer.

Michigan has reported a sudden acceleration in deaths in recent days partially thanks to a wave of outbreaks at nursing homes in the state. Michigan also joined a group of 7 Midwestern states which announced yesterday a plan to start a coordinated reopening on May 15.

Earlier this week, a group of protesters swarmed the Michigan capital in Lansing, demanding that Whitmer, who has clashed with Trump earlier in the US outbreak, move to reopen the state ASAP.

Here’s what the state’s “curve” currently looks like:

Whitmer’s decision is such a surprise, that this Democratic pollster tweeted data purporting to show that the state’s residents “agreed” with Whitmer’s decision to hold off on reopening.

And instead of announcing this new plan in an official release, she said it during an interview on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said Friday that she hopes to be in a position to ease her state’s strict stay-at-home order by May 1, although she warned that it must be a decision based on scientific data to prevent a second wave of the coronavirus. “I do hope to have some relaxing come May 1, but it’s two weeks away and the information and the data and our ability to test is changing so rapidly, it’s hard to tell you precisely where we’ll be in a week from now, much less two,” Whitmer said in an interview on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

Watch the clip below:


Tyler Durden

Fri, 04/17/2020 – 11:07

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Cantor Fitzgerald Slashes Jobs, Prepares To Cut More Amid Economic Downturn

Cantor Fitzgerald Slashes Jobs, Prepares To Cut More Amid Economic Downturn

Even before the virus pandemic crashed the global economy into recession, if not depression, for the second quarter, the investment bank industry was already on shaky ground.

As we’ve noted over the last year, investment banks, such as BarclaysJPMorganHSBCDeutsche Bank, and many others, have been slashing jobs and shrinking operations amid a global slowdown.

Now Cantor Fitzgerald has joined the party by slashing jobs to reduce costs and shore up operations.

Sources told Bloomberg that Howard Lutnick, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, has already slashed jobs across capital markets and commercial real estate units, with hundreds of more cuts expected through April. 

“We have made prudent headcount and cost reductions to position the firm for the uncertain macroeconomic conditions expected for the remainder of the year,” the investment bank said in a statement.

People familiar with the cuts said Lutnick is taking precautionary measures as he worries about an economic downturn triggered by COVID-19 could extend through the year.

Lutnick appears to be breaking ranks from other major investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, who have all promised jobs will not be axed this spring. But with an economic depression unfolding and 22 million Americans jobless in four weeks, Lutnick is taking no chances and is tightening up operations as economic uncertainty plagues the 2020 outlook.

Sources said the cuts represent about 5% of Cantor’s workforce, with more reductions in some units than others. In total, the investment bank employs 12,000 people around the world.  

Even with the Federal Reserve unleashing record amounts of stimulus, bailouts, and now buying ETFs, capital markets will likely remain damaged throughout the year – leading to further job losses for the investment bank community. 

 


Tyler Durden

Fri, 04/17/2020 – 11:05

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Conviction-Less Comeback In Stocks Smells Like A Big Bull Trap

Conviction-Less Comeback In Stocks Smells Like A Big Bull Trap

Authored by Eddie van der Walt via Bloomberg,

Low volume at the start of the recent stock rally suggests it’s a bull trap, not a journey to record highs, based on algorithmic analysis of 30 years of data.

Momentum in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Index and Stoxx 600 turned in March, thanks to collective action by central bankers.

Since then, the question in financial markets has been palpable: are the lows in?

History suggests not.

In eight bear markets across the three indexes since the 90s, the bottom was usually marked with a bang, not a whimper. Trading volume in the first 10 days of the turnaround on all but one occasion (the Stoxx 600 in March 2009) was at least 10% higher than the volume in the bear market as a whole.

Source

And that makes sense. If a groundswell of money is ready to overturn a bearish consensus, volume is likely to pick up in an epic tug of war.

Across the series, volume below 110% of the bear-market average in the first 10 days of an advance correctly identified five false dawns, where the index rallied 15%, then continued to lower lows.

Volume is, however, a reasonable prerequisite, not a sufficient condition. Heavy trading would have triggered 12 false positives, which suggests that the study is best used to negatively screen rallies.

For the most recent S&P 500 bear market that started on Oct. 9, 2007 and ended on March 9, 2009, the total drawdown was 57% and average daily volume was 1,310,603,671.

Yet the bear-market rallies in this period offered mixed signals, as summarized in this table:

This year, all three indexes failed the test. The first 10 sessions after the local low saw average trading volume of ~98% the bear-market average for the S&P 500, ~94% for the Dow Jones and ~104% for the Stoxx 600.

As with all statistical analysis, this data should be treated with care and seen in context. The sheer velocity of the descent — the fastest in history — has meant that volume is probably skewed upwards. Volatility begets volume.

Yet conviction was stronger on the way down than on the way up, and that’s a worrying sign. More study is needed, but on volume alone, this bear market doesn’t appear to be over


Tyler Durden

Fri, 04/17/2020 – 10:50

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Watch a Libertarian Make a DIY Face Mask

This homemade mask requires a few minutes of sewing, which is admittedly more work than most congressmen put into reading the last stimulus bill.

Written, directed, shot, edited, and produced by Meredith and Austin Bragg

Music: “Wholesome” by Kevin MacLeod used under an Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC BY 3.0) license

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NYPD Cops, Some Without Masks, Detain Small Boy for Being Alone on Subway. His Parents Were in the Next Car.

A video from a New York City subway platform shows a contentious moment that calls into question the New York Police Department’s (NYPD) policing priorities amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Portions of the interaction, which occurred at Harlem’s 145th Street stop on April 10 at 7 p.m., were captured by bystander Shaquan Jenkins via cellphone.

The video shows a group of NYPD officers holding onto the arms of a young boy. Bystanders in the background shout “that’s a little boy” and accuse the officers of detaining the boy simply for selling candy and snacks on the train. As the video continues, a woman can be heard in the background identifying herself as the young boy’s mother and telling officers to let him go. The young, crying boy struggles under the grasp of one of the officers.

Only some of the officers present are wearing personal protective equipment like masks.

Follow-up footage, which was shared by defense attorney Rebecca Kavanagh, shows the NYPD carrying the young boy out of the station and arresting an adult man who reportedly tried to come to the young boy’s defense. It appears the man was the boy’s stepfather.

Jenkins tells Reason via phone he was getting on the train when he first saw the young boy make an announcement about food he was selling. About two stops later, officers became involved. (The subsequent interaction was recorded on camera.) Jenkins says that the mother and stepfather identified themselves to officers. When officers wouldn’t listen, Jenkins says the parents attempted to yank the young boy away. The stepfather was then arrested.

A spokesperson for the NYPD tells Reason the young boy was detained for being on his own, not for selling food. According to a statement from the department, a train conductor informed authorities that they saw a young boy “exiting and re-entering train cars over the course of several stations.” When officers found the young boy, he told them that the parents were on a different part of the train.

“The child became uncooperative and upset, and for the child’s safety, the officers physically restrained him,” the statement reads. It alleges officers located the young boy’s mother and stepfather several cars away and that the parents were uncooperative, demanding their son’s release.

The family was instead escorted off the subway platform toward Transit District 3 station. While en route, the stepfather was arrested after he “confronted, and physically impeded officers.” After arriving at the station, officers conferred with child protective services right and prepared two reports: one for a domestic incident and one for suspected child abuse and/or maltreatment. The stepfather was issued a court summons for disorderly conduct.

The young boy’s mother, Alia, identified herself on Twitter, writing that their family is homeless and that her son was selling food out of necessity. Alia’s tweet caught the eye of Janos Marton, a civil rights attorney who is now representing the family.

Marton says that the video “clearly shows” that the parents were in the vicinity of their son. At the time police became involved, the family was in the neighboring subway car.

“This whole family has been put through an enormous strain through this instant and right now they are weighing all their possible options.

As COVID-19 spreads through the country, many judges have sought out ways to minimize the risks to corrections facilities, including trying to keep low-level, nonviolent offenders out of the system altogether. Officials in New York City, which currently has over 120,000 COVID-19 cases, have called on the NYPD to modify its policing of low-level offenses in order to reduce crowding in jails. NYPD Police Commissioner Dermot Shea responded by saying the NYPD has no intention of reducing enforcement.

Though the NYPD may be refusing to reduce arrests amid a pandemic, officers could have exercised more discretion in this interaction. There appears to have been some initial misunderstanding, but the officers still chose to forcibly restrain a distraught young boy to the point of pulling his jacket off and keeping him in their custody even after his parents identified themselves—all while possibly jeopardizing the health of the boy, his family, and others in close proximity.

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US “Leading” Economic Indicators Crash By Most In Over 60 Years

US “Leading” Economic Indicators Crash By Most In Over 60 Years

The US Conference Board’s leading economic index crashed 6.7% in March – the biggest monthly drop since the series began in 1959…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood:

  • The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was interest rate spread at 0.03

  • The biggest negative contributor was jobless claims at -5.53

  • LEI coincident index fell 0.9% in March after rising 0.3% in prior month

  • LEI lagging index rose 1.2% in March after rising 0.3% in Feb.

The index (which fell 0.2% in February after rising 0.4% in January) fell to its lowest since July 2017…

And on a year-over-year basis, LEI crashed 6.6% – the biggest annual drop since September 2009…

We are sure this will all be dismissed as “transitory”… despite its apparent “leading” nature.


Tyler Durden

Fri, 04/17/2020 – 10:35

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