New Software Glitch Found On 737 MAX That Results In “Uncontrollable Nosedives”

Maybe Boeing will finally think twice before cutting corners and slashing costs on planes it hopes will become the standard in commercial air travel.

With Boeing’s fleet of 737 MAX planes indefinitely grounded after unexpected problems with the MCAS system costs hundreds of people their lives in two fatal crashes, tests on the grounded planes revealed a new, and unrelated safety risk in the computer system for the Boeing 737 Max that could push the plane downward the FAA announced; the discovery could lead to further lengthy delays before the aircraft is allowed return to service.

A series of simulator flights to test new software developed by Boeing revealed the flaw, a source told CNN. In simulator tests, government pilots discovered that a microprocessor failure could push the nose of the plane toward the ground. It is not known whether the microprocessor played a role in either crash.

737 Flight Simulator

While the original crashes remain under investigation, preliminary reports showed that “a new stabilization system pushed both planes into steep nosedives from which the pilots could not recover.” The issue is known in aviation circles as runaway stabilizer trim.

“The FAA recently found a potential risk that Boeing must mitigate,” the agency said in an emailed statement on Wednesday, without providing any specifics.

While the latest glitch is separate from, and did not involve the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System linked to the two fatal accidents since October that killed 346 people, it could produce an uncommanded dive similar to what occurred in the crashes, Bloomberg confirmed, also citing an unnamed source..

Meanwhile, piling damage control upon damage control, Boeing announced it could break the chain of events that led to both crashes by developing a software fix that would limit the potency of that stabilization system. In other words, for every uncontrolled dive there is a software upgrade… allegedly. The problem is that the broader public is becoming increasingly disgusted by what is a clear culture of cutting corners and rolling out flying coffins that crash to earth the moment there is a BSOD.

Boeing engineers are now trying to address the issue, which has led to another delay in recertifying the 737 Max.
“The safety of our airplanes is Boeing’s highest priority. We are working closely with the FAA to safely return the MAX to service,” Boeing said in a statement. The sources say Boeing engineers are trying to determine if the microprocessor issue can be fixed by reprogramming software or if replacing the physical microprocessors on each 737 Max aircraft may be required.

When testing the potential failure of the microprocessor in the simulators, “it was difficult for the test pilots to recover in a matter of seconds,” one of the sources said. “And if you can’t recover in a matter of seconds, that’s an unreasonable risk.”

The good news for Boeing is that despite the disastrous track record of flawed executive decisions and cut corners, its stocks has so far managed to recover every single time, if a little longer than “seconds.” Even so, it remains well below the level it hit after its second plane went down, following the infamous MCAS failure.

Another crash, however, and BA will find just how unpleasant gravity can be, even if the consequences of a stock crash allow (most) shareholders to live and tell all about it.

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The Next Revolution by Murray Bookchin

We cannot content ourselves with simplistically dividing civilization into a workday world of everyday life that is properly social, as I call it, in which we reproduce the conditions of our individual existence at work, in the home, and among our friends, and, of course, the state, which reduces us at best to docile observers of the activities of professionals who administer our civic and national affairs. Between these two worlds is still another world, the realm of the political, where our ancestors in the past, at various times and places historically, exercised varying, sometimes complete control over the commune and the confederation to which it belonged. 

– Murray Bookchin, A Politics for the Twenty-First Century

Today, the concept of citizenship has already undergone serious erosion through the reduction of citizens to “constituents” of statist jurisdictions, or to “taxpayers” who sustain statist institutions.

– Murray Bookchin, Cities

In the spirit of my recent interest in direct democracy and the future of human governance, I finally got around to reading something that’s been on my radar for a while. It’s a collection of nine essays by the late political philosopher Murray Bookchin published together in a book titled:The Next Revolution – Popular Assemblies and the Promise of Direct Democracy. It did not disappoint.

While there are numerous key points on which Bookchin and I would have disagreed spiritedly, that’s not the purpose of this piece. Aside from being a wealth of information and knowledge (he closely studied nearly every major revolution in the Euro-American world), his greatest service here is a framework through which to understand human governance and how and why it’s all gone so terribly wrong. Many of his themes cover ideas and realizations I’ve come to on my own, but the clarity with which he describes certain key concepts helped refine my thinking. The purpose of this post is to outline some of these ideas.

continue reading

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Leaked Google ‘Microagressions Newsletter’ Reveals Blizzard Of Triggered Snowflakes

For about three years, Google employees have been anonymously reporting dramatic tales of workplace triggerings in an internal newsletter called “Yes, At Google” or YAG. 

For a bit of context, the median Google employee is 30 years old, while 90% of political donations made by employees of parent Alphabet are to Democrats, according to GovPredict. In short, the same people who have adjusted so well to the Trump presidency are – surprise, very sensitive

Described as a “curated monthly newsletter of anonymized incidents of micro-aggressions & micro-corrections,” the YAG newsletter was launched in 2016 as an employee’s pet-project, and has exploded into a full blown production with an editorial board absorbed by the company’s “Respect@” program. 

While the newsletter’s existence has been previously reportedsomeone leaked three editions of YAG to the Daily Caller‘s J. Arthur Bloom – and they’re glorious. Some notable excerpts are below, while we can only hope someone puts together a dramatic reading, since that’s all the rage (See: the Daily Caller’s Beto O’Rourke cow-centric creeper poem reading for reference). 

***

  • A deaf person told to watch her “tone”

“Reminded today by my manager that I need to be more aware of my tone when interacting with others as sometimes it’s often not appropriate given the situation. Fact: I am deaf and rely on Cochlear implants to ‘hear.’ I cannot differentiate tones.”

  • The soy police

“A coworker approached me to say that he noticed I consumed a lot of soy products (I’m a vegetarian) and that he was worried my testicles would shrink, my testosterone would fail, and estrogen would rise. It was inappropriate to begin with, but also cast people with lower testosterone as less masculine or manly.”

  • Pronoun problems

“Someone I know has been effectively pressured into not using their preferred pronouns in work communications because some members of their team find it unclear or confusing. The person has tried to open a dialogue to find ways to make communications clearer while still using their preferred pronouns, but has had these efforts shut down.”

  • Flirting gone wrong (TVC means ‘Temp, Vendor or Contract’ employees, as opposed to a full employee)

“I’m a TVC and I’ve not completed my first month here. Last week in a cafe a man approached me while I was eating breakfast to tell me that he felt ‘compelled’ to tell me how he was attracted to me. I was wearing my wedding ring at the time (always). Then a few days later a different man who I’ve caught staring at my before, makes up a very thinly veiled excuse to talk to me in the lobby.

“Then the next day he pings me on google chat with another flimsy excuse to talk. Opening with ‘struggled to get your idap. Had to track your location, lol’ … it’s nothing to laugh about and I don’t see anything funny about this. I’m here to work and I don’t feel respected because of my gender.

“I’m a 27 year old woman. I was grabbing a dessert at a cafe (Masa) and a man walks up to me and tells me ‘Do you know how many calories are in there? That’s going to all go here (points at the hips).’ I was so shocked I had nothing to say to him.”

“Anti-harrassment anti-discrimination training includes two examples of men flirting with women as inappropiate behabvior and zero examples involving any other gender configuration. This unthinkingly normalized that dynamic and derives any other.” 

  • Ableist straw spat

The ableist plastic straw ban fad has reached Google. The food team is at least wiling to hear perspectives from disabled Googlers, but this is yet another example where disabled Googlers have to advocate just to maintain the status quo of partial inclusion.”

  • Pro-Chinese Lego vandalism

The Taiwanese lego flag in the NYC office has been vandalized a couple of times (once intentionally destroyed and replaced by the letters CN, and once blocked by a Chinese flag). Similar things also seem to happen to other country flags. Despite political differences, I would hope Googlers and their guests respect other people’s countries and flags.” 

Finally, one employee reports: “When I told my manager I felt excluded from the team I was told to ‘search within yourself for the problem’ when I told my manager essentially that I found that answer unacceptable I was told that I was too sensitive.

You don’t say?

***

Read the rest of Bloom’s piece here

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Auer Deference and the Brand X Problem

As Jonathan writes, the Supreme Court (in Kisor v. Wilkie) has reaffirmed Auer deference, though limiting it in a way analogous to how Mead limited Chevron deference.

Justice Kagan’s opinion is a plurality for the most interesting parts. Her background to Auer (Part II-A) and her rejection of Kisor’s arguments against Auer (Part III-A) are only for four Justices. Chief Justice Roberts joined Part III-B, where he agreed that Auer should be retained for stare decisis reasons, and Part II-A, where he agreed that Auer deference should be interpreted in a limited way. So Justice Kagan’s pro-Auer arguments aren’t part of a majority opinion, though they’ll undoubtedly be very influential among commentators and lower courts.

A couple of things to remark: both Justice Kagan and Justice Gorsuch (the author of the main concurrence in the judgment [i.e., a quasi-dissent, or dissent as to the reasoning, which is all we really care about here]) show their love of contractions: Kagan says “In case you’re wondering”, “if you don’t know”, and “because it often doesn’t”—and, memorably, in reference to an FDA regulatory interpretation that’s incomprehensible to all but those with the requisite chemistry background: “Or, finally, take the more technical ‘moiety’ example. Or maybe, don’t.” And Gorsuch says “don’t, “doesn’t”, “didn’t”, “shouldn’t”, and “that’s” several times. I welcome the new age of contractions (even in majority opinions).

Also, is this some Harvard Law School dean infighting going on, between former Dean Kagan and current Dean John Manning?

To supplement his two APA arguments, Kisor turns to policy, leaning on a familiar claim about the incentives Auer creates. According to Kisor, Auer encourages agencies to issue vague and open-ended regulations, confident that they can later impose whatever interpretation of those rules they prefer. See Brief for Petitioner 37–41. That argument received its fullest elaboration in a widely respected law review article pre-dating Auer. See Manning, 96 Colum. L. Rev., at 654–669. More recently, the concern about such self-delegation has appeared in opinions from this Court, starting with several from Justice Scalia calling for Auer‘s reconsideration. See, e.g., Christopher, 567 U. S., at 158 (citing Manning, supra, at 655– 668); Decker v. Northwest Environmental Defense Center, 568 U. S. 597, 620–621 (2013) (Scalia, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part) (citing Manning, supra); Talk America, Inc. v. Michigan Bell Telephone Co., 564 U. S. 50, 69 (2011) (Scalia, J., concurring) (principally relying on Manning, supra).

Also, note Justice Kagan’s use of “too” as a synonym for “also”, not only in general (nothing wrong with that) but even to begin a sentence. I welcome new and interesting usages and I’ve actually seen this one (rarely) before, but it does feel a little unusual to me:

Too, regulated parties often push for precision from an agency, so that they know what they can and cannot do.

But now I want to focus on a structural aspect of deference: the effect of deference on agency interpretations going forward.

Chief Justice Roberts suggests that the difference between Kagan’s and Gorsuch’s views isn’t all that great: “I write separately to suggest that the distance between the majority and Justice Gorsuch is not as great as it may initially appear.” Not that they’re the same, but “the cases in which Auer deference is warranted largely overlap with the cases in which it would be unreasonable for a court not to be persuaded by an agency’s interpre- tation of its own regulation.” Kavanaugh agrees in his separate concurrence in the judgment.

A reader unfamiliar with administrative law might legitimately ask: what’s the big deal?

Let me approach this with the case of Chevron deference: When agencies interpret statutes that they administer, and when those statutes are ambiguous, courts are required to defer to the agencies’ interpretations as long as they’re reasonable. (This is not the case here: in this case, we’re talking about agency interpretations of their own regulations, not of statutes. But my example right now relates to statutes.)

As we learn from Mead, sometimes Chevron applies and sometimes it doesn’t. When it doesn’t, courts don’t defer to the agency: instead, they do their own interpretation, accepting the agency’s view as long as it’s persuasive.

What’s the difference between Chevron and Skidmore? First, there’s the quantum of deference: people generally think that Chevron is more deferential than Skidmore, because an agency can be unpersuasive but still reasonable. (Maybe this doesn’t make sense; work with me on this.) But there’s a further, structural difference, which would apply even if we found empirically that courts applied the same quantum of deference under Chevron as under Skidmore. It’s the question of who is the actual lawmaker.

Of course Congress passes the original statute. But when the statute is ambiguous as to a certain issue, there’s a gap. Who fills that gap? If there were no agencies, the gap filler would always be the court. The court would interpret the statute, and that interpretation would be set in stone unless the court overruled its previous precedent (or got overruled by a higher court) or unless Congress changed the statute. Likewise, if Skidmore applies, the court is the ultimate lawmaker; even if it agrees with the agency, the court’s interpretation is set in stone, and the agency can’t change the result. (For this reason, I don’t like to say “Skidmore deference”; I prefer to say “Skidmore weight” or “Skidmore persuasiveness” or similar.)

But if the agency has interpreted the statute and we’re in a Chevron scenario, the gap filler is the agency. That’s because, as the Supreme Court said in Chevron (and has reaffirmed repeatedly), we presume (when Chevron applies) that a statutory ambiguity is an implicit delegation of interpretive authority to the agency. The agency is the lawmaker, because Congress has (implicitly) delegated that sort of authority to it. (Assume that this comports with the non-delegation doctrine: perhaps the limitation to reasonable resolutions of the ambiguity provides the requisite “intelligible principle”.)

So suppose an agency could speak chevronically (because the statute is ambiguous and the other prerequisites for Chevron deference are met), but hasn’t gotten around to it yet, and in the meantime, a court (recognizing that the statute is ambiguous) interprets the statute. The agency is allowed to adopt a contrary interpretation—in effect overruling the court. That’s the teaching of the Brand X case, and it makes perfect sense if you accept Chevron‘s implicit delegation theory.

Likewise, suppose an agency has already spoken chevronically and a court defers to the agency at step 2 (recognizing the ambiguity and the agency’s reasonableness). The court hasn’t interpreted the statute. Instead, the court has merely recognized that the agency’s interpretation of the statute (being reasonable) is now the law, because Congress has (by leaving an ambiguity) made the agency (implicitly) the lawmaker. Thus, under Brand X, an agency can come back later and change its interpretation—again, in effect (apparently) overruling the court.

That’s the fundamental structural difference between Chevron and Skidmore, which Scalia was getting at in his Mead dissent: when Chevron is limited and Skidmore takes its place, we restrict the set of cases where the agency is the lawmaker (and can change the interpretation on an ongoing basis) and we expand the set of cases where the court is the lawmaker (and where the agency is powerless to change the interpretation in the future).

Now, how does this play out in the case of Auer deference? Justice Kagan gives us the theory of Auer in her plurality opinion (citations omitted):

We have explained Auer deference (as we now call it) as rooted in a presumption about congressional intent—a presumption that Congress would generally want the agency to play the primary role in resolving regulatory ambiguities. Congress, we have pointed out, routinely delegates to agencies the power to implement statutes by issuing rules. In doing so, Congress knows (how could it not?) that regulations will sometimes contain ambiguities. But Congress almost never explicitly assigns responsibility to deal with that problem, either to agencies or to courts. Hence the need to presume, one way or the other, what Congress would want. And as between those two choices, agencies have gotten the nod. We have adopted the presumption—though it is always rebuttable—that “the power authoritatively to interpret its own regulations is a component of the agency’s delegated lawmaking powers.” Or otherwise said, we have thought that when granting rulemaking power to agencies, Congress usually intends to give them, too, considerable latitude to interpret the ambiguous rules they issue.

Let’s say this again: the power authoritatively to interpret its own regulations is a component of the agency’s delegated lawmaking powers.

In other words, the agency is the lawmaker even when it’s interpreting its own regulations. And since Auer deference will generally attach to materials that lack the force of law (otherwise they would probably get Chevron deference), that means that the agency is the lawmaker (as to the meaning of its own regulations) even when it issues interpretations that lack the force of law! Maybe this might give you some more sympathy for Justice Gorsuch’s concurrence in the judgment.

This means that, when Auer applies (and it now applies less often than one might have thought, and has a smaller quantum of deference than one might have thought), because the agency is the lawmaker, the agency is allowed to change the interpretation of its ambiguous regulations even after a court decision upholding its previous interpretation.

Or, suppose a court interprets the regulation before an agency has had the chance to opine authoritatively. (This won’t usually happen: at least the agency will usually have the chance to file a brief—Kagan says briefs usually don’t get Auer deference (but sometimes might!). But maybe the meaning of the regulation arose in a private negligence per se litigation?) Then a court will have no choice but to interpret the regulation on its own, without any help from the agency. If Skidmore is the standard, that interpretation will be set in stone (unless the agency adopts a new regulation, using all the necessary APA bells and whistles). But if the agency could have spoken auerically, then the agency can authoritatively contradict the court’s interpretation.

Call this Brand Y—it’s like Brand X, but for the Auer context.

So while Roberts and Kavanaugh suggest that the difference between Auer and Skidmore is slight, this is about equivalent to the observation that the difference between Chevron and Skidmore may be slight. Even if empirically we find that deference is the same, it still makes a difference as to who’s the ultimate lawmaker, and therefore as to who has the authority to change the interpretation over time.

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Local Government Is An Engine Of Inflation

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Insolvency isn’t restricted to private enterprise; governments go broke, too.

One reason the economy is so much more precarious than advertised is inflation has pushed households and small businesses to the edge–and one engine of that inflation is local government. This is not to dump on local government, which is facing essentially unlimited demands from the public for more services while mandated cost increases in government union employee wages and benefits ratchet higher.

Since personnel costs are 70+% of city and county budgets, those ever-increasing payroll, pension and benefits costs are the key driver of budgets expanding.

But local governments’ ability to increase revenues are also essentially unlimited. There are all sorts of fees that can be created or increased if outright tax increases have been voted down by the public.

What amounts to blackmail is generally effective, however: if you want the giant potholes filled in your streets, you have to pass this municipal bond–or else.

Official inflation, growth in the economy (GDP) and increases in wages are typically pegged at around 2% to 3% annually. But cost increases in local government and agency services are soaring at rates far above the modest rates of economic expansion.

Here’s a list of tax and fee increases hitting residents of one of the counties I call home; the list includes taxes/fees raised in 2017 and 2018:

1. Property taxes: between 6.5% and 10%, depending on the property class

2. Gasoline tax (county), from 8.8 cents to 23 cents, phased in over 3 years

3. General excise tax, up 6.3%

4. Garbage fee (commercial): up 27%

5. Sewer fees: up 44%

6. Electricity (base rate): up 7.4%

7. Annual vehicle safety inspection fee (state): up $5.81

8. County water service: up 8%

9. Accommodation fee (a.k.a. hotel tax) (state): up 10%

I may have missed a few, but you get the idea: while wages have supposedly gone up 3% in 2018, taxes and fees are rising at much higher rates.

Small businesses are exposed to higher business license and other fees. Some cities have tripled certain classes of business license fees, charging a percentage of gross income, not net income, meaning a business that’s losing money still has to pay the full annual licensing fee if they’re struggling to keep afloat.

All these increases are manifestations of the Ratchet Effect: organizations and institutions only know how to expand, so budgets, head counts, administration, etc. are always ratcheting higher.

There are no institutional memories or mechanisms for contraction, i.e. reduced revenues, so when revenues decline sharply, the institution breaks down.

The Ratchet Effect sets up The Rising Wedge Model of Breakdown: as complexity, costs and layers of management all ratchet higher, the organization loses the flexibility required to deal with outright declines in revenues. As a result, any sustained drop in revenues causes the institution to break down, i.e. fail systemically.

Allow me to explain another mechanism of rampant inflation triggered by local government. Cities and counties discovered a new revenue source in the late 20th century: real estate development fees. Building permits that once cost a few hundred dollars now cost thousands of dollars, and a host of new fees are now standard: sewer hookup fees, plan review fees, and development fees.

Then there are transfer fees for every sale of real estate, and mandated subsidized housing requirements for new apartment buildings: a percentage of the new apartments must be made available at below-market rents for qualified tenants. The cost of the subsidized units are borne by the owner/developer, not the taxpayer, so the subsidy in effect raises the market rents.

Partly as a result of these local government fees, the cost of building new apartments is very high. As a result, rents are also higher. If demand is strong, some desperate (or rich) tenants will pay the much higher rent.

The owners of existing buildings look at the high rents and their natural response is to raise their rents accordingly: the new market price for a one-bedroom apartment has been set by the high-cost new building, and rents throughout the city ratchet higher.

The same dynamic pushes commercial rents higher, too. The ground-floor commercial space in the new complex is rented out at sky-high rates to a corporate chain, and suddenly that insanely high rent is the new baseline for every equivalent space in the city.

When an old building is demolished to make way for a new apartment complex with ground-floor commercial spaces, the old tenants never return: they can no longer afford the rent. As I’ve discussed here before, this gentrification drives out diversity, leaving the city’s commercial districts a homogenized, lifeless cluster of Corporate America outlets.

Corporate America has zero loyalty or interest in local economies: the moment an outlet doesn’t make its numbers, HQ shutters it.

Since rents have risen beyond what local small businesses can afford, there are no new tenants for the empty space when the chain outlet closes.

This sets up the rising tax/fee spiral of death, as local government seeks to replace the lost revenues by jacking up taxes and fees on the remaining small businesses. The higher costs appear “affordable” to a public and city staff who don’t have to pay the soaring costs of keeping the doors open, so they’re mystified when one small business after another closes their doors forever.

The Ratchet Effect has pushed costs above the point the businesses can survive, so they close.

Local government then increases tax and fee burdens on the remaining businesses, pushing more of them over the edge.

At some point, the trickle of businesses closing becomes a self-reinforcing flood. As vacant storefronts become the norm, cities respond to the loss of tax donkeys by launching desperate marketing campaigns which do nothing to address the real problem, high costs: come spend money in our commercial districts! These campaigns fail to move the needle, and as the economy slips into a long-delayed recession, city revenues plummet, triggering even more onerous fees and taxes.

The resulting collapse in small business eventually leads to a collapse in city finances. Insolvency isn’t restricted to private enterprise; governments go broke, too.

*  *  *

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Auer Deference and the Brand X Problem

As Jonathan writes, the Supreme Court (in Kisor v. Wilkie) has reaffirmed Auer deference, though limiting it in a way analogous to how Mead limited Chevron deference.

Justice Kagan’s opinion is a plurality for the most interesting parts. Her background to Auer (Part II-A) and her rejection of Kisor’s arguments against Auer (Part III-A) are only for four Justices. Chief Justice Roberts joined Part III-B, where he agreed that Auer should be retained for stare decisis reasons, and Part II-A, where he agreed that Auer deference should be interpreted in a limited way. So Justice Kagan’s pro-Auer arguments aren’t part of a majority opinion, though they’ll undoubtedly be very influential among commentators and lower courts.

A couple of things to remark: both Justice Kagan and Justice Gorsuch (the author of the main concurrence in the judgment [i.e., a quasi-dissent, or dissent as to the reasoning, which is all we really care about here]) show their love of contractions: Kagan says “In case you’re wondering”, “if you don’t know”, and “because it often doesn’t”—and, memorably, in reference to an FDA regulatory interpretation that’s incomprehensible to all but those with the requisite chemistry background: “Or, finally, take the more technical ‘moiety’ example. Or maybe, don’t.” And Gorsuch says “don’t, “doesn’t”, “didn’t”, “shouldn’t”, and “that’s” several times. I welcome the new age of contractions (even in majority opinions).

Also, is this some Harvard Law School dean infighting going on, between former Dean Kagan and current Dean John Manning?

To supplement his two APA arguments, Kisor turns to policy, leaning on a familiar claim about the incentives Auer creates. According to Kisor, Auer encourages agencies to issue vague and open-ended regulations, confident that they can later impose whatever interpretation of those rules they prefer. See Brief for Petitioner 37–41. That argument received its fullest elaboration in a widely respected law review article pre-dating Auer. See Manning, 96 Colum. L. Rev., at 654–669. More recently, the concern about such self-delegation has appeared in opinions from this Court, starting with several from Justice Scalia calling for Auer‘s reconsideration. See, e.g., Christopher, 567 U. S., at 158 (citing Manning, supra, at 655– 668); Decker v. Northwest Environmental Defense Center, 568 U. S. 597, 620–621 (2013) (Scalia, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part) (citing Manning, supra); Talk America, Inc. v. Michigan Bell Telephone Co., 564 U. S. 50, 69 (2011) (Scalia, J., concurring) (principally relying on Manning, supra).

Also, note Justice Kagan’s use of “too” as a synonym for “also”, not only in general (nothing wrong with that) but even to begin a sentence. I welcome new and interesting usages and I’ve actually seen this one (rarely) before, but it does feel a little unusual to me:

Too, regulated parties often push for precision from an agency, so that they know what they can and cannot do.

But now I want to focus on a structural aspect of deference: the effect of deference on agency interpretations going forward.

Chief Justice Roberts suggests that the difference between Kagan’s and Gorsuch’s views isn’t all that great: “I write separately to suggest that the distance between the majority and Justice Gorsuch is not as great as it may initially appear.” Not that they’re the same, but “the cases in which Auer deference is warranted largely overlap with the cases in which it would be unreasonable for a court not to be persuaded by an agency’s interpre- tation of its own regulation.” Kavanaugh agrees in his separate concurrence in the judgment.

A reader unfamiliar with administrative law might legitimately ask: what’s the big deal?

Let me approach this with the case of Chevron deference: When agencies interpret statutes that they administer, and when those statutes are ambiguous, courts are required to defer to the agencies’ interpretations as long as they’re reasonable. (This is not the case here: in this case, we’re talking about agency interpretations of their own regulations, not of statutes. But my example right now relates to statutes.)

As we learn from Mead, sometimes Chevron applies and sometimes it doesn’t. When it doesn’t, courts don’t defer to the agency: instead, they do their own interpretation, accepting the agency’s view as long as it’s persuasive.

What’s the difference between Chevron and Skidmore? First, there’s the quantum of deference: people generally think that Chevron is more deferential than Skidmore, because an agency can be unpersuasive but still reasonable. (Maybe this doesn’t make sense; work with me on this.) But there’s a further, structural difference, which would apply even if we found empirically that courts applied the same quantum of deference under Chevron as under Skidmore. It’s the question of who is the actual lawmaker.

Of course Congress passes the original statute. But when the statute is ambiguous as to a certain issue, there’s a gap. Who fills that gap? If there were no agencies, the gap filler would always be the court. The court would interpret the statute, and that interpretation would be set in stone unless the court overruled its previous precedent (or got overruled by a higher court) or unless Congress changed the statute. Likewise, if Skidmore applies, the court is the ultimate lawmaker; even if it agrees with the agency, the court’s interpretation is set in stone, and the agency can’t change the result. (For this reason, I don’t like to say “Skidmore deference”; I prefer to say “Skidmore weight” or “Skidmore persuasiveness” or similar.)

But if the agency has interpreted the statute and we’re in a Chevron scenario, the gap filler is the agency. That’s because, as the Supreme Court said in Chevron (and has reaffirmed repeatedly), we presume (when Chevron applies) that a statutory ambiguity is an implicit delegation of interpretive authority to the agency. The agency is the lawmaker, because Congress has (implicitly) delegated that sort of authority to it. (Assume that this comports with the non-delegation doctrine: perhaps the limitation to reasonable resolutions of the ambiguity provides the requisite “intelligible principle”.)

So suppose an agency could speak chevronically (because the statute is ambiguous and the other prerequisites for Chevron deference are met), but hasn’t gotten around to it yet, and in the meantime, a court (recognizing that the statute is ambiguous) interprets the statute. The agency is allowed to adopt a contrary interpretation—in effect overruling the court. That’s the teaching of the Brand X case, and it makes perfect sense if you accept Chevron‘s implicit delegation theory.

Likewise, suppose an agency has already spoken chevronically and a court defers to the agency at step 2 (recognizing the ambiguity and the agency’s reasonableness). The court hasn’t interpreted the statute. Instead, the court has merely recognized that the agency’s interpretation of the statute (being reasonable) is now the law, because Congress has (by leaving an ambiguity) made the agency (implicitly) the lawmaker. Thus, under Brand X, an agency can come back later and change its interpretation—again, in effect (apparently) overruling the court.

That’s the fundamental structural difference between Chevron and Skidmore, which Scalia was getting at in his Mead dissent: when Chevron is limited and Skidmore takes its place, we restrict the set of cases where the agency is the lawmaker (and can change the interpretation on an ongoing basis) and we expand the set of cases where the court is the lawmaker (and where the agency is powerless to change the interpretation in the future).

Now, how does this play out in the case of Auer deference? Justice Kagan gives us the theory of Auer in her plurality opinion (citations omitted):

We have explained Auer deference (as we now call it) as rooted in a presumption about congressional intent—a presumption that Congress would generally want the agency to play the primary role in resolving regulatory ambiguities. Congress, we have pointed out, routinely delegates to agencies the power to implement statutes by issuing rules. In doing so, Congress knows (how could it not?) that regulations will sometimes contain ambiguities. But Congress almost never explicitly assigns responsibility to deal with that problem, either to agencies or to courts. Hence the need to presume, one way or the other, what Congress would want. And as between those two choices, agencies have gotten the nod. We have adopted the presumption—though it is always rebuttable—that “the power authoritatively to interpret its own regulations is a component of the agency’s delegated lawmaking powers.” Or otherwise said, we have thought that when granting rulemaking power to agencies, Congress usually intends to give them, too, considerable latitude to interpret the ambiguous rules they issue.

Let’s say this again: the power authoritatively to interpret its own regulations is a component of the agency’s delegated lawmaking powers.

In other words, the agency is the lawmaker even when it’s interpreting its own regulations. And since Auer deference will generally attach to materials that lack the force of law (otherwise they would probably get Chevron deference), that means that the agency is the lawmaker (as to the meaning of its own regulations) even when it issues interpretations that lack the force of law! Maybe this might give you some more sympathy for Justice Gorsuch’s concurrence in the judgment.

This means that, when Auer applies (and it now applies less often than one might have thought, and has a smaller quantum of deference than one might have thought), because the agency is the lawmaker, the agency is allowed to change the interpretation of its ambiguous regulations even after a court decision upholding its previous interpretation.

Or, suppose a court interprets the regulation before an agency has had the chance to opine authoritatively. (This won’t usually happen: at least the agency will usually have the chance to file a brief—Kagan says briefs usually don’t get Auer deference (but sometimes might!). But maybe the meaning of the regulation arose in a private negligence per se litigation?) Then a court will have no choice but to interpret the regulation on its own, without any help from the agency. If Skidmore is the standard, that interpretation will be set in stone (unless the agency adopts a new regulation, using all the necessary APA bells and whistles). But if the agency could have spoken auerically, then the agency can authoritatively contradict the court’s interpretation.

Call this Brand Y—it’s like Brand X, but for the Auer context.

So while Roberts and Kavanaugh suggest that the difference between Auer and Skidmore is slight, this is about equivalent to the observation that the difference between Chevron and Skidmore may be slight. Even if empirically we find that deference is the same, it still makes a difference as to who’s the ultimate lawmaker, and therefore as to who has the authority to change the interpretation over time.

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Cryptos Collapse As Bitcoin Loses $1500 In Minutes

After the biggest day since December 2017, Bitcoin just crashed over $1500 in minutes, dragging the rest of the crypto space with it…

 

Erasing the day’s gains and then some…

As Tom Luongo warned earlier, this run up towards the end of this month into the end of Q2 may be morphing quickly into a FOMO rally that could see a blow-off top in the near future.

Markets that go vertical without really pausing to take a breather will always correct down. Hard.

When that happens given the expansion of Bitcoin’s dominance of the crypto market by market cap percentage in the past few weeks, I would expect to see some strong rotation into both cash and alt coins just clearing major technical hurdles on any correction.

And just so we’re clear as to what’s happening here. The mother of all safe haven trades is emerging. Trade Wars, Near Hot Ones, tariffs, sanctions, popular uprisings and political instability are all on the table.

While we’re all focused on whatever short-term idiocy comes out of Donald Trump’s mouth to secure his control over the Overton Window, we should be asking ourselves why the ECB is going looking at even more negative rates, LIBOR has inverted alongside Eurodollar and the U.S. Treasury market and stocks are at all-time highs.

The markets aren’t irrational. Our perceptions of what is driving this behavior is. Safe haven assets change with the times.

And when you step back from the insanity of the fiscal and political situation in the U.S. and Europe, the fall-out from their instability on emerging markets and the potential for major shifts in the geopolitical game board does it really seem all that odd that a simple electronic proxy for gold with thin supply, high trust and low holding risk would become a darling of the risk averse?

I don’t.

Read more here…

However, perhaps it is as simple as this chart…

Bitcoin is still protection from the idiocy of policymakers…

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Democratic Debates Are Here; Here’s Where To Watch, What To Watch For

Twenty presidential contenders vying to unseat Donald Trump will participate in back-to-back debates beginning Wednesday night from 9 p.m. – 11 p.m. Eastern on NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo, and streaming on NBCNews.com, MSNBC.com as well as NBC apps. 

Held at the Knight Concert Hall in Miami, candidates will be split into two groups of 10. President Trump, meanwhile, will be live-tweeting the debates

Photo Illustration by Sarah Rogers/The Daily Beast

Wednesday night will feature Senators Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, former Representative Beto O’Rourke, former HUD Director Julian Castro, Representatives Tulsi Gabbard and Tim Ryan, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Washington Governor Jay Inslee and former Representative John Delaney (per Bloomberg).

Thursday will feature frontrunner Joe Biden, Senators Sanders, Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand and Michael Bennet, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, entrepreneur Andrew Yang, former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, Representative Eric Swalwell, and spiritual healer and author Marianne Williamson.

The cramped stages mean candidates will be forced to comply with strict rules on timing. NBC says there will be no opening statements, though contenders will be able to give closing remarks. Over two hours split into five segments, candidates will be allotted 60 seconds to answer questions and 30 seconds to respond to follow ups. -Bloomberg

What to watch for

On Wednesday, all eyes will be on Elizabeth Warren, a former star debater who will need to capitalize on recent momentum in the polls to eloquently convey her platform built around detailed policy proposals, including education, trade, debt, taxes and renewable energy. As Business Insider notes, “I have a plan for that” has been adopted as Warren’s official campaign slogan. 

The 70-year-old Warren is considered the only top-flight candidate to appear on Wednesday, which means that it’s essentially hers to lose. 

“I don’t think anyone else on that night has her level of skill and her level of experience in this format,” Democratic strategist Maria Cardona told the Associated Press

On Thursday, Biden and Sanders will be the focus, polling at 32.1% and 16.5% respectively. 

Top policy issues will include Medicare-for-all, which was first introduced by Sanders and has since been endorsed by most of the candidates. That said, according to polls most voters have no clue what the proposal is and are confused as to whether they would get to keep their current coverage. 

Meanwhile, Biden may haver to defend recent racially sensitive controversies after bragging about working with segregationist Democrats in the Senate in the 1970s. Both Harris and Booker, the two top polling black candidates in the race, slammed Biden for his remarks. Buttigieg, meanwhile, may face questions over how he handled the shooting of a black man  by a South Bend police officer.

Given the extremely short time each candidate will have to make their case, we don’t expect much in the way of fireworks. 

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Schiff: “Inflation Chickens Will Come Home To Roost… Buy Gold”

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Money manager Peter Schiff says all the money printing and debt explosion since the Great Recession comes with a huge downside.

Schiff says, “All sorts of bad policies basically took place thanks to the monetary excesses applied by the world central banks, but now we are at a point where all these inflation chickens are going to come home to roost.”

“It will not be in stock prices or real estate prices or bond prices, but in good old fashion consumer prices. Food, energy and all the things that we need to live are going to get a lot more expensive.”

Schiff says the Fed is overlooking some big problems coming. Schiff says, “They [The Fed] did not stress an environment where we have more inflation or where we have stagflation, where we not only have a rise in unemployment and a recession, but consumer prices and long term interest rates that go up at the same time. They (Fed) are not even thinking that’s possible…”

“…but that’s actually probable. The real problem is when real inflation rears its head, there is nothing the central bankers can do about it. If they try to fight the inflation by tightening up on monetary policy, it’s like slamming on the brakes.

They are going to have to jack interest rates very high, and everything is going to start imploding. The whole credit bubble is going to collapse. We are going to see stock markets tumble. Bonds are going to go into default. There will be bankruptcies, layoffs, bank failures and the governments will have to start defaulting on their obligations and payments on social programs, or even interest on principal.

You have a massive crisis coming if the Fed fights inflation, but you have an even worse crisis if they don’t. I am betting on this initially. As inflation gets worse and worse, the central bankers are going to say it is a good thing.”

Schiff predicts, “Inflation is going to run out of control…”

“…contrary to the idea that inflation is somehow “dead,” and that government deficits can be endlessly funded by printing pieces of paper that everyone will passively accumulate, my impression is that the coming few years are likely to produce “revulsion” toward an increasing stock of unbacked government liabilities. To some extent, you can see that emerging revulsion in the recent behavior of gold. It’s not something that’s fully taken hold yet, but it will be important to closely monitor the prices of inflation-sensitive assets, including commodities, inflation-protected securities, the U.S. dollar, and other alternative ways of holding purchasing power. “

[ZH: None other than John Hussman agrees with Schiff, noting in his latest market comments:

Notably, the points where we’ve observed rapid increases in U.S. inflation – the late 1960’s, the early 1970’s, and again in the late-1970’s, overlap those periods where the U.S. economy was running near full capacity yet government deficits were expanding.

With the U.S. budget deficit pushing deep in the red despite an economy operating at full employment, we’re approaching a similar situation at present.

This is why people need to buy gold. Paper currencies are going to lose a tremendous amount of value. So, if you want to preserve your purchasing power of your savings, you better be saving real money and not all this funny money the central banks create. . . . Once the market perceives that there is no light at the end of the tunnel, that we are never going back to normal, that interest rates are going to stay negative in real terms forever, that the Fed has no ability to raise rates, that all the new money that has been created will never be destroyed, that the Fed balance sheet will grow in perpetuity so liquidity will never be removed, then the dollar will fall through the floor. Then we are going to get all that inflation.”

Schiff is predicting another bull market in gold and silver. Schiff says:

“If we are going to have another bull market in gold, which we will and it’s probably already starting, we are going to have a bull market in silver. I don’t think we have ever had a gold bull market that didn’t include silver. In every gold bull market, silver has outperformed gold (on a percentage basis). So, there is a lot of upside in silver.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Peter Schiff, founder of Euro Pacific Capital and Schiff Gold.

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Bitcoin Soars Most Since 2017 As Dollar Drops, Bond Yields Pop

Will Powell or Trump or Xi or Putin or Rouhani be ‘Leeroy Johnson’?

 

In an effort not to bury the lead, we note that cryptocurrency’s rebirth accelerated dramatically today with Bitcoin spiking above $13,500 intraday (up over $2000 in the last 24 hours – Bitcoin’s biggest daily dollar rise since Dec 2017)…

Tracking the 2017 trajectory very well…

In the 8 days since Facebook unveiled Libra, Bitcoin is up almost 50%

Helped by the extreme dovishness of The ECB, The Fed, and various Fed-Speakers since. However, perhaps it is as simple as this chart…

Bitcoin is protection from the idiocy of policymakers… rather like gold…

Gold’s climb to a six-year high may reflect its status as “a positive yielding asset” relative to much of the world’s debt, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group LLC.

As Tom Luongo noted earlier, this run up towards the end of this month into the end of Q2 may be morphing quickly into a FOMO rally that could see a blow-off top in the near future.

Markets that go vertical without really pausing to take a breather will always correct down. Hard.

When that happens given the expansion of Bitcoin’s dominance of the crypto market by market cap percentage in the past few weeks, I would expect to see some strong rotation into both cash and alt coins just clearing major technical hurdles on any correction.

And just so we’re clear as to what’s happening here. The mother of all safe haven trades is emerging. Trade Wars, Near Hot Ones, tariffs, sanctions, popular uprisings and political instability are all on the table.

While we’re all focused on whatever short-term idiocy comes out of Donald Trump’s mouth to secure his control over the Overton Window, we should be asking ourselves why the ECB is going looking at even more negative rates, LIBOR has inverted alongside Eurodollar and the U.S. Treasury market and stocks are at all-time highs.

The markets aren’t irrational. Our perceptions of what is driving this behavior is. Safe haven assets change with the times.

And when you step back from the insanity of the fiscal and political situation in the U.S. and Europe, the fall-out from their instability on emerging markets and the potential for major shifts in the geopolitical game board does it really seem all that odd that a simple electronic proxy for gold with thin supply, high trust and low holding risk would become a darling of the risk averse?

I don’t.

Read more here…

*  *  *

Chinese stocks dipped at the open, scrambled back and then did nothing for the rest of the day…

 

European stocks ended lower – despite the Mnuchin pop…

 

US equities were juiced overnight by Mnuchin’s trade deal comments then gave it all back as humans realized the machines had misunderstood his grammar – “deal WAS 90% done” is different from “deal IS 90% done.”

 

Trannies and Nasdaq outperformed while Small Caps, Dow, and S&P were weakest…another weak close…

 

Today’s strength was a rebound in cyclicals as recent outperformance of defensives was dumped…

 

VIX extended its recent gains, decoupling from stocks…

 

Treasury yields spiked notably higher today (front-end underperforming)…

 

10Y yields worked their way back up to a key resistance level from FOMC day…with a deja vu nature to the move…

 

The Dollar dipped today but remains in a tight range for the 3rd day since the FOMC day dump…

 

Yuan spiked on Mnuchin’s trade deal comments then gave it all back…

 

Crude is the week’s winner for now (thanks to a massive crude draw) with silver lagging…

 

Gold dropped most in 3 weeks today… back to 2-day lows…

 

While Gold traded down in USD today, in Canadian Loonies, gold is at a record high…

And in case you wondered, as Zimbabwe goes full hyper-inflate-tard again by banning foreign currency withdrawals and abandoning the USDollar, gold in RTGS$ (ZimDollars) is exploding…

Just how it is supposed to.

 

Finally, the following are the dates of the last all-time high for various assets (h/t bullmarkets.co)…

  • Nikkei – 1989

  • Oil – 2008

  • Gold – 2011

  • Silver – 2011

  • Corn – 2012

  • Bitcoin – Dec 2017

  • DAX – Jan 2018

  • Russell 2K – Aug 2018

  • NASDAQ 100 – Apr 2019

Buy-And-Hold?

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