Category: zerohedge

Authored by Rick Moran via PJmedia.com,

If you’re looking for peak idiocy from academic institutions who are falling all over themselves to kowtow to the mob’s notions of “social justice,” look no further.

The English Department at Rutgers University has declared that proper use of grammar is a hidden form of racism because it disadvantages students of “multilingual, non-standard ‘academic’ English backgrounds.”

Grammar is rather boring so the department is going to sex it up with all sorts of fascinating additions.

Washington Free Beacon:

The “critical grammar” approach challenges the standard academic form of the English language in favor of a more inclusive writing experience. The curriculum puts an emphasis on the variability of the English language instead of accuracy.

“This approach challenges the familiar dogma that writing instruction should limit emphasis on grammar/sentence-level issues so as to not put students from multilingual, non-standard ‘academic’ English backgrounds at a disadvantage,” Walkowitz said. “Instead, it encourages students to develop a critical awareness of the variety of choices available to them [with] regard to micro-level issues in order to empower them and equip them to push against biases based on ‘written’ accents.”

“Variability instead of accuracy” means incorrect usage of grammatical norms. It’s nice that someone speaks a foreign language but isn’t the whole point of teaching proper grammar is teaching foreigners the proper way to speak English?

Yes, but it’s white and it’s male, and it’s gotta go.

Unfortunately, Rutgers apparently missed the mark with some activists. Aside from being incomprehensibly stupid, the change is, itself, virulently racist.

Leonydus Johnson, a speech pathologist and libertarian activist, said the school’s change makes the racist assumption that minorities cannot comprehend traditional English. Johnson called the change “insulting, patronizing, and in itself, extremely racist.”

“The idea that expecting a student to write in grammatically correct sentences is indicative of racial bias is asinine,” Johnson told the Washington Free Beacon.

“It’s like these people believe that being non-white is an inherent handicap or learning disability…

That’s racism. It has become very clear to me that those who claim to be ‘anti-racist’ are often the most racist people in this country.”

I guess it depends on how you think about the idea of “language.” You and I and the rest of the sane world sees language as a way to communicate. Writing or speaking using a common language with (mostly) agreed-upon definitions for words is the key to communicating and understanding ideas. Even abstract ideas like emotions and feelings can be communicated using commonly accepted forms of grammar.

Grammar “greases the skids” of communication by making things easier to understand. Form and function merge seamlessly and effortlessly so that an intelligent conversation is possible.

But “critical grammar” is so counterintuitive that we’d have to think about every word we used to avoid “bias.” That’s the price we pay for “decolonization.”

The Rutgers English department created a Committee on Bias Awareness and Prevention in 2012. In light of Black Lives Matter protests, the school has moved past bias awareness and prevention and into a focus on “decolonization.” Walkowitz’s email talks of “decolonizing the writing center.” The department offers a specific internship titled “Decolonizing the Writing Center” to “make the writing centers more linguistically diverse.”

When will students revolt against this nonsense? Or will they remain sheep and be led around by the nose by ignoramuses so besotted with ideology they can’t think straight?

Tea Party conservatives are waking up to the lack of fiscal discipline by the Republican establishment over exploding deficits and another round of economic stimulus, according to The Hill. 

What’s happening today is similar to the Republican backlash in 2008 when they bailed out Wall Street during the financial crash, it’s just this time, the bailouts dwarfed the ones a decade ago. 

This puts Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, in a tight spot as he is up for reelection this fall. His state is flooded with Tea Party patriots, who have raised the alarm over the Trump administration’s reckless deficit spending. 

“Just came from Progressive Democrat, whoops, I’m mean Republican caucus,” Senator Rand Paul, a Kentucky Republican, tweeted last week. 

“The majority of Republicans are now no different than socialist Democrats when it comes to debt. They simply don’t care about debt and are preparing to add at least another trillion dollars in debt this month, combined with the trillions from earlier this summer,” Paul said. 

Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, said “hell no” to critical components of McConnell’s next stimulus package. 

“This is the swamp in a feeding frenzy. Everybody’s lobbyist has their hand out, saying, ‘Look, if you’re spending trillions of dollars, I want to get some.’ And it’s not right,” Cruz said.

GOP Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, another politician who was elected during the Tea Party movement a decade ago, told The Hill that Congress shouldn’t authorize “a dime more” until “we’ve thoroughly taken a look at the $2.9 trillion we’ve already authorized” and figure out what funds have actually been spent. 

“When we were in the minority, we were able to put a brake on Obama’s desires,” Johnson noted, adding that the Republican establishment has lost fiscal discipline in recent years. 

Senator Rick Scott, a Florida Republican, said the pandemic “shouldn’t be used as an excuse to spend” his “state’s taxpayers’ hard-earned dollars” to bailout out other “poorly managed state budgets.”

“As we begin looking at another spending bill, we need to know how the money already allocated has been spent. Last month, I wrote to all governors requesting details on how this taxpayer money is being spent. I’m still waiting on responses from most of them,” Scott said. 

Ten years later, the Tea Party has failed to curtail deficit spending. Republicans, disillusioned by the “greatest economy ever,” are beginning to realize in the age of Trump they lost their ways through reckless deficit spending.  

Read: Ron Paul: Is The (Tea) Party Over?

President Trump, who appeared to be a deficit hawk as a candidate, and promised to “eliminate the national debt in eight years” has increased the country’s debt load by at least $6 trillion, or about 30% in his first term. 

In May, the US added a trillion dollars to combat the virus-induced downturn. 

For context, here is total US debt since the start of the century.

Republicans are in a Catch-22 situation, one where they must pass the next trillion-dollar stimulus bill or face a crash in consumption. Passage of the bill will drive internal strife among establishment Republicans and Tea Party members. 

Authored by Fred Smith via RoadandTrack.com,

Two months after filing for bankruptcy protection, Hertz finally has a plan in place to attempt to stay afloat until 2021.

To appease lenders and maintain future business, it will unload nearly 200,000 of the manufacturer’s total leased vehicles, numbering under 500,000.

The long-awaited bulk sale of 182,521 cars will take place over the course of the rest of the year, with a deadline set for December 31st, in order to fund an agreed $650 million in other lease-related debts. The number is a step up from the 144,000-car shedding Hertz had proposed last month, but leaves the company with a large enough fleet to maintain a viable business when it emerges from bankruptcy into a world that will, hopefully, involve enough routine travel for rental cars to be a viable business enterprise.

The deal is a direct result of a more positive used car market than the one Hertz had previously faced when it announced its filing in May. The market will allow the rental giant to recoup more of its losses than it had previously expected, which seems to have been the sticking point for lenders approving the deal.

That same market, however, could look very different by the end of the sale period, thanks in no small part to the potential market flooding of 182,000 former rental cars hitting the market with a requirement to be sold in a specific time period.

While no specifics were offered about which portion of the Hertz fleet will be sold, earlier sales this year have included a wide range of low mileage C7 Corvette Z06 options, as well as two of the unique-to-Hertz, 750 horsepower Camaro ZL1s.

While the US “bricks-and-mortar” retail industry was already on its deathbed before the covid pandemic struck with stories discussing the “retail apocalypse” as far back as 2015, the events in the past few months have simply accelerated a long-overdue process that would have taken several years to conclude with mass bankruptcies of corporate zombies coupled with tens of thousands of store closures.

And so, unlike other sectors of the US economy which have – for now – avoided to be swept by the “biblical” default wave that is sweeping across the US corporate sector, amid temporary store closures as part of shelter-in-place measures, Goldman calculates that the announcement (and completion) of permanent store closures YTD (~7,430) has already reached more than half of 2019 figures (~12,370) due to slowing/declining sales growth, leveraged balance sheets, and rising occupancy costs.

It’s only going to get worse: according to Coresight Research, around 20,000-25,000 stores could permanently close in 2020 on COVID-19 headwinds in the US, implying an accelerated store closure schedule in the second half of the year. Further, it expects to see an increase in bankruptcy filings owing to reorganizations or difficulties with financing activities amid the current pandemic.

Meanwhile, as some retailers are experiencing a surge in digital volumes, pure-play eCommerce companies like Amazon continue to benefit from greater access to consumer data and purchase history that enable compelling consumer experiences and also deliver efficiency and competitive benefits through advertising, product recommendations, and dynamic pricing.

This is also why Goldman believes that eCommerce growth will accelerate over the course of the second half amid social distancing measures, record number of retail store closures, investments in fulfillment by Amazon, and increasing tech investments by traditional retailers.

Not surprisingly, with apparel & accessories continuing to record large share of store closures as shown in the charts above and below, Goldman which just upped its price target on Amazon to $3,800, believe the online retail giant will be the primary beneficiary considering this segment already sees >20% online penetration.

Authored by Saamir Ansari via Medium.com,

2020 has already been immortalised. It is a year that nobody will forget.

However, when speaking of the worst year recorded in human history there are many to choose from:

• The year 1349 saw the Black Death kill half the population of Europe.

• In 1520 smallpox ravaged the Americas and killed between 60 and 90 per cent of the continents’ original inhabitants.

• In 1918 the Spanish Flu led to the deaths of over 50 million people.

• The rise of Hitler in 1933 is often claimed to be the turning point in modern history.

However, historians are unanimous in their choice…

The title of the worst year in history is easily held by the year 536 AD.

Medieval historian, Michael McCormick has stated that:

“it was the beginning of one of the worst periods to be alive, if not the worst year.”

– Science Magazine, Ann Gibbons, 2018

The year began with an inexplicable, dense fog that stretched across the world which plunged Europe, the Middle East and parts of Asia into darkness 24 hours a day, for nearly 2 years.

Consequently, global temperatures plummeted which resulted in the coldest decade in over 2,000 years. Famine was rampant and crops failed all across Europe, Africa and Asia. Unfortunately, 536 AD seemed to only be a prelude to further misery. This period of extreme cold and starvation caused economic disaster in Europe and in 541 A.D. an outbreak of bubonic plague further led to the death of nearly 100 million people and almost half of the Byzantine Empire.

This part of the sixth century has a widely been referred to as the Dark Ages, but the true source of this darkness had previously been unknown to scholars. Recently, researchers led by McCormick and glaciologist Paul Mayewski, have discovered that a volcanic eruption in Iceland in early 536 led to incredibly large quantities of ash being spread across much of the globe, creating the fog that cast the world into darkness. This eruption was so immense that it altered the global climate and adversely affected weather patterns and crop cultivation for years to come (Antiquity).

Labeling each new year as ‘the worst year in history’ has become something of a fad these days.

We should look back to the year 536 A.D. and cherish how fortunate we are not to have lived in a time when the world was truly in darkness.

One day after Goldman poured cold water on the V- or any other shaped recovery narrative, when its high-frequency, real-time indicators showed that the pace of the recovery was slowing across various consumption metrics…

… but more notably, observed a clear contraction within the US job market and warning that “the labor market recovery is stalling due to the worsening virus situation” as “workplace activity measures have declined in the states hit hardest with virus spread and moved sideways in others since late June”…

… on Sunday, Morgan Stanley, which in the past 4 months has emerged as the biggest cheerleader of the economy (perhaps because it feels the need to justify its bullish market take by being optimistic on the broader economy as if the two are still somehow connected), felt its was its duty to launch another full-throttled defense of the economy – something it has been doing virtually every week – and in the bank’s Sunday Start note, Morgan Stanley chief economist Chetan Ahya gives “three reasons why the recovery is still on track”, and lists the following:

1. Unlike in March, there has been a change in calculus between the virus and economy, and policy-makers (at least those who are no part of the #resistance) are now balancing the social and economic costs brought about by lockdown measures versus the adverse implications for public health.
2. The outlook for vaccines/treatments for COVID looks promising (although there is a risk that elevated levels of COVID-19 cases could coincide with the traditional flu season (which typically leads to hospitalizations beginning to rise from around mid-November onwards and peaking in January), meaning that there will be a greater strain on hospital capacity during that time period.
3. Policy support remains unprecedented. As a refresher, the G4 central banks are expanding their balance sheets by 28% of GDP by end-2021 and the G4 and China economies are extending fiscal support of 17% of GDP in 2020. The Fed’s balance sheet will rise to 30% of GDP by end-2021 and the fiscal deficit in the US will rise to 24.6% of GDP in 2020, on our forecasts.

And just in case the bulls are starting to get cold feet, below are the details from the rest of Morgan Stanley’s traditionally upbeat take on the US economy and global markets.

Three Reasons Why the Recovery Is Still on Track, by Chetan Ahya, chief economist and global head of economics at MOrgan Stanley.

Every new economic cycle begins with considerable uncertainty. Concerns about whether we have seen the worst effects of the shock and whether there will be aftershocks or lingering effects tend to be the key causes of uncertainty during the initial recovery. This time is no different.

But we have steadfastly held on to our forecast that the global economy will regain its pre-COVID-19 levels of output by 4Q20 (and DMs by 4Q21). Our views on the global macro outlook are underpinned by three factors – (1) the evolving COVID-19 situation, (2) the race for effective treatments and vaccines, and (3) the extent of the policy support. As we review each of them in turn, we hope to shed some light on why we think the global recovery is still on the right track.

#1: The equation between the virus and the economy is changing

The virus is still spreading in the US and LatAm, while new clusters of infections have emerged in Asia and Europe. For the latter group, policy-makers have been able to manage these new clusters with selective lockdowns, and aggregates for economic activity have not been affected.

This risk of a renewed aggressive lockdown is the most acute in the US. But the equation between the virus and the economy is now changing – with policy-makers now balancing the social and economic costs brought about by lockdown measures versus the adverse implications for public health.

Moreover, the link between new case counts, hospitalizations, and fatalities is also very different today versus the situation in March/April. Today’s cases include more of the milder or asymptomatic variant, a reflection of ramped-up testing capacity as compared to the earlier days of the outbreak where testing capacity constraints meant that only symptomatic cases were being tested. The median age of new cases is also lower, and the medical community is better prepared to deal with COVID-19 patients. Net new hospitalizations have now eased from the recent peak, easing concerns that policy-makers would have to take up strict lockdown measures.

#2: The outlook for vaccines/treatments for COVID-19 is promising

We have been concerned about a renewed wave of infections in the autumn ever since the beginning of the outbreak (we built this into our base case with a forecast that the pace of growth will slow, but not re-enter into sequential decline, around the turn of the year). The issue is that elevated levels of COVID-19 cases could coincide with the traditional flu season (which typically leads to hospitalizations beginning to rise from around mid-November onwards and peaking in January), meaning that there will be a greater strain on hospital capacity during that time period.

However, we are also watching the potential mitigating factors. The additional precautions such as widespread wearing of masks may help to temper the spread of COVID-19 and the traditional flu season. There is also emerging evidence that the current flu season in the Southern Hemisphere is more subdued as compared to previous seasons.

Moreover, treatment options are available today, with the prospect of more to come. In addition to remdesivir, our US biotechnology analysts have highlighted that there are over 20 antibodies in development, and they believe that Regeneron and Eli Lilly are likely to be first to market. They also view antibody treatments as having a high probability of success and expect details of the clinical trials to be released later this summer.

A number of potential vaccine candidates are also entering into phase III trials. Our US biotechnology analysts expect all three companies (Moderna, Pfizer and AstraZeneca) to have a reasonable probability of success in delivering positive phase III results, with potential details released in the September-November timeframe. Manufacturing of these vaccines is already under way and each of these companies are positioned to provide 100M+ doses of vaccines by year-end. This combination of treatments and vaccines will give us another layer of defense against COVID-19.

#3: Don’t forget about the significant support from policy stimulus

Policy support is crucial during the initial stages and, this time around, the scale of stimulus has been unprecedented. As a refresher, the G4 central banks are expanding their balance sheets by 28% of GDP by end-2021 and the G4 and China economies are extending fiscal support of 17% of GDP in 2020. The Fed’s balance sheet will rise to 30% of GDP by end-2021 and the fiscal deficit in the US will rise to 24.6% of GDP in 2020, on our forecasts.

The fact that this is an exogenous shock (i.e., nobody was at fault for causing the recession) has meant that policy-makers have acted quickly. Just this week, we received a welcome upside surprise with the earlier than expected approval of the European recovery fund. In the US, negotiations are ongoing over CARES II and we expect an additional US$1 trillion fiscal package, with the risks skewed towards a bigger package of over US$1.5 trillion (which will take the deficit over 27% of GDP – a post-1943 high). Moreover, considering the outsized impact that the recession has had on lower-income households, central banks and policy-makers have committed to make the recovery as robust as possible, which in turn means that the overall monetary and fiscal policy stance will remain accommodative for some time.

In sum, our big-picture view is that the global economy will continue to make up lost ground, attaining pre-COVID-19 output levels by 4Q20 (DMs by 4Q21). In fact, the recent run of upside surprises in the data in the US and China makes us believe that this might even pan out a bit faster than we originally envisaged. As these economies have already made up a lot of lost ground, they will naturally see a moderate pace of improvement from here and we would also expect to see some month-to-month gyrations in the data. The baton of growth leadership will be passed on to Europe next as it begins to experience catch-up rates of growth.

With the Trump Treasury sitting on $1.8 trillion and three months to spend it, the White House and Senate Republicans are set to introduce a $1 trillion spending bill on Monday which would be released in stages – angering Democrats who are pushing for an immediate, $3 trillion shotgun blast of stimulus.

Speaking with ABC‘s “This Week,” White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said “I see us being able to provide unemployment insurance, maybe a retention credit, to keep people from being displaced or brought back into the workplace, helping with our schools,” adding “we can negotiate on the rest of the bill in the weeks to come.“

The Trump administration opposes an extension of a $600-a-week enhanced unemployment payment that expired this month, Mnuchin and Meadows said. Instead, White House officials favor a plan to reimburse an individual’s lost wages or salary by up to 70%, said Mnuchin and Meadows. –Newsday

Asked whether expiring federal unemployment benefits will be extended, WH Chief of Staff Mark Meadows says “The original benefits will not… We are going to be prepared, on Monday, to provide unemployment insurance extension that would be 70% of wages.” https://t.co/qxICVVlxra pic.twitter.com/cDY6VWjXNN

— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) July 26, 2020

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) popped a fuse at the GOP proposal, blaming Republicans for waiting too long to negotiate for more relief after House Democrats passed a fifth, $3 trillion relief bill which would have included immediate aid to state and local governments, expanded testing and contact tracing for COVID-19.

Appearing on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Pelosi said that Republicans are “in disarray and that delay is causing suffering for America’s families. So we have been ready for two months and 10 days. I’ve been here all weekend hoping they had something to give us.”

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, meanwhile, says the White House is “prepared to act quickly.”

We bet they are.

Mnuchin added that unemployment benefits would be extended, while schools and universities would receive protection against “frivolous” lawsuits – part of overall GOP support for protections that would also include corporations.

“Within the trillion-dollar package, there’s certain things that have time frames that are a bigger priority, so we could look at doing an entire deal, we could also look at doing parts,” said Mnuchin, adding that he would push for a “technical fix” to unemployment insurance after many have criticized the $600 weekly benefit as being too high, and a disincentive to searching for a job.

The fix would ensure “that people don’t get paid more to stay home than they do to work, and we can move very quickly with the Democrats on these issues,” Mnuchin said.

He added: “The fair thing is to replace wages, and it just wouldn’t be fair to use taxpayer dollars to pay more people to sit home than they would get working and get a job.”

Pelosi said last week that Democrats would not accept a “piecemeal” approach to a deal. 

The Speaker on Sunday said it’s easier for the government to provide a $600 payment to the unemployed than to calculate what 70% of each worker’s salary was. –Newsday

“The reason we had $600 was its simplicity,” said Pelosi, adding “And figuring out 70% of somebody’s wages. People don’t all make a salary … They make wages and they sometimes have it vary. So why don’t we just keep it simple?“

Authored by Paula Bolyard via PJMedia.com,

How did we go from “flatten the COVID-19 curve” to “shut up and wear the mask – or else” in just a few short months? Back in March, we were told that lockdowns were necessary to ensure COVID-19 cases would not overwhelm hospitals and, in particular, intensive-care units. In most parts of the country, hospitals were not only not overwhelmed, many were forced to lay off nurses and other employees because elective procedures were put on hold – a move that likely cost lives as people postponed health critical screenings and avoided going to the hospital when they had chest pains for fear of catching COVID-19.

At the beginning of the pandemic, we were assured that once hospitals had things under control we could go back to our regularly scheduled lives, with the understanding that as things reopened and testing increased there would be a spike in the number of cases. Now it seems the goalposts are moving again and we’re being sent into further lockdown —in some cases more stringent lockdowns than before — by governors and other mini-tyrants who are in panic mode because people are catching a contagious (but not very deadly for most people) disease that is, you know, contagious.

Case in point, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, who on Wednesday announced a statewide mask order that came with a threat: We’d all better obey him if we want schools to open in the fall.

Wearing masks will make a difference. It will determine what our fall looks like. We want kids to go back to school, we want to see sports — to do that it’s very important that all Ohioans wear a mask. #MasksOnOhio

— Governor Mike DeWine (@GovMikeDeWine) July 22, 2020

Nice school you’ve got there. It would be a shame if anything happened to it.

But while the number of diagnosed cases of COVID-19 has risen in Ohio over the last month, hospital admissions haven’t kept up and the number of deaths has plummeted:

(Ohio Dept. of Health, July 22, 2020)

You have to dig around the Ohio Dept. of Health website to find these numbers. When you land on the site you’re greeted with a graph showing the cumulative number of deaths and hospitalizations, which make it appear there’s been a huge spike, when in fact it’s showing the growth of the cumulative total over time:

(Ohio Dept. of Health, July 22, 2020)

A Google search turned up no stories about hospitals being overwhelmed or nearing ICU capacity in Ohio, yet DeWine, who is the Democrats’ favorite Republican these days, went ahead with his mask order — the first statewide mask order in Ohio since the pandemic began. To hear DeWine talk (and tweet), you’d think hospitals are overwhelmed with COVID patients (who are probably lying on filthy FEMA cots) and we are all in very grave danger:

#Ohio is sliding down a very dangerous path, with our once flattened curve starting to sharpen and spike. This worrisome, disturbing reversal of our progress is a jarring reminder of just how quickly our fate can change. My fellow Ohioans, it’s time to act. #MasksOnOhio pic.twitter.com/yon1wFtd7d

— Governor Mike DeWine (@GovMikeDeWine) July 16, 2020

Our state’s life is now in danger – and our own strength lies in our unity of purpose.

— Governor Mike DeWine (@GovMikeDeWine) July 15, 2020

Meanwhile, in Wayne County, where I’m blessed to live, it doesn’t feel like we’re in grave danger—and the numbers bear that out:

(Ohio Dept. of Health, July 22, 2020)

That’s 55 total hospitalizations since the pandemic began. Last week there were two COVID hospitalizations recorded and no deaths. This despite the fact that nearly everything in the county reopened in mid-May and very few people are wearing masks. To date, we’ve had a grand total of 398 cases of COVID-19 and 59 deaths (most of them in nursing homes) out of a population of 117,710. Yet DeWine’s draconian new OMG-hair-on-fire statewide mask order is being forced on us and we’ll all have to wear them while singing in church on Sunday and smiling at babies in the park.

Look, I’m not denying COVID-19 is a serious and sometimes deadly illness. It is, and many families are grieving the loss of loved ones who’ve died of it. And many families are grieving the loss of loved ones from the flu, from auto accidents, and from cancer. Death catches up to all of us eventually.

I’m also not denying that masks can slow down the spread of disease. They can. But what is the goal at this point? Are we to wear masks until COVID is completely eradicated in the U.S.? Until we have zero cases? And once COVID is eradicated (it won’t be, but stick with me here), shouldn’t we continue to wear them until the flu is eradicated? And the common cold? Rotavirus? RSV? We’re being told that if we love our neighbors (and, by the way, you’re not a real Christian if you don’t’ want to wear a mask) we should be happy to wear a mask to protect them from COVID-19. If that’s the case, we’re going to have to continue to wear them until all contagions have been purged from the face of the earth—in other words, forever.

There’s risk inherent in living life. Each day we calculate the potential risk and make decisions about what we’ll do and where we’ll go. Most of us climb into a car every day and buckle up knowing that there are 1.25 million deaths from car crashes each year and our morning commute could be our last. Some choose not to drive because the risk is too high. Others drive faster than the speed limit, making the calculus that the benefits of getting to where they’re going faster outweigh the risks.

Decisions individuals make about whether to wear a mask or stay home when there are contagions floating around are no different. Unfortunately, high on their own power, politicians like DeWine are gleefully soberly making those decisions for us. And now that they’ve done it with COVID-19, what’s to stop them from issuing other, more onerous, orders or locking us down every year during flu season or using health department orders to confiscating our firearms because gun violence is on the rise and PUBLIC HEALTH CRISIS!!!

That’s what worries me most about these orders, many of which have, thank goodness, already been ruled unconstitutional. There’s a growing sense that this is the new normal – in fact, many of these mayors and governors have said as much. If that’s the case, we can kiss our liberties goodbye.

Hurricane Hanna was downgraded to a tropical storm on Sunday morning after making landfall Saturday evening in south Texas. Now we will shift our attention to Pacific Hurricane Douglas, bearing down on the Hawaiian islands Sunday afternoon. 

Douglas is a Category 1 storm about 90 miles East of Kahului, Hawaii. The system is moving west-northwest at around 16mph. It is expected to pass near, or over, the islands from Maui to Kauai on Sunday through Monday. Maximum winds are near 90mph with gusts just over 100mph.

The County of Maui is expected to blare warning sirens for the hurricane on Sunday to alert residents to shelter in place. The main threats of the storm are dangerous surf, high winds, and storm surge. 

“A hurricane warning has been issued for Maui County, so we’re strongly urging all residents to shelter in place today due to Hurricane Douglas,” Mayor Victorino said. “Mahalo to our first responders for keeping us all safe during this storm. Make sure you keep listening to your radio and watching the news for updates. We are Maui Strong, and we will get through this together.”

Hurricane conditions are expected for portions of Maui county Sunday, and Kauai and Niihau tonight. Tropical storm conditions will be seen on the Big Island. 

One Twitter user said, “Prepare for a direct hit from #HurricaneDouglas on Oahu tonight 8:00 pm. This is from Sunday 5 AM National Weather Service Advisory of Central Pacific Hurricane Center on Hurricane Douglas: Maximum sustained wind 90 mph. Hurricane in warm Hawaii waters now. Be Prepared & Godspeed.” 

Prepare for a direct hit from #HurricaneDouglas on Oahu tonight 8:00 pm. This is from Sunday 5 AM National Weather Service Advisory of Central Pacific Hurricane Center on Hurricane Douglas: Maximum sustained wind 90 mph. Hurricane in warm Hawaii waters now. Be Prepared & Godspeed pic.twitter.com/5axuF1SylE

— pd_adams (@smokeyroadpub) July 26, 2020

Emergency warnings are being sent to residents’ phones. 

Weather radar shows Douglas is approaching Hawaii. 

2pm ET Update: #Douglas w 90mph winds, 90mi E of Kahului, Hawaii. Moving WNW at 16mph. Buoy 51205 near Pauwela, Maui w 11.5′ wave height. Top gust of 64mph 6,621 ft up on Kula, Maui. Cont track: close to N parts of Islands from Maui 2 Kauai thru tonight. #HurricaneDouglas #HIwx pic.twitter.com/tmPqaYXGjB

— WeatherReMarks (@WeatherReMarks) July 26, 2020

CNN said if Douglas makes landfall it would the third known hurricane to directly strike the islands. 

Here are spaghetti models of where Douglas could be headed. 

As for the tropics this weekend, well, it has been very busy.

We’ll be updating readers on tropical developments next week.

Helped by a sharply weaker dollar in the past month, and a collapse in real 10Y yields to all time negative lows of -0.93%…

… the price of gold made a new all time closing high surpassing $1900 on Friday with the December contract (where the most open futures interest can now be found) hitting an all time high, and gold has already jumped out of the gate with futures reopening on Sunday…

… with silver similarly spiking.

According to JPMorgan’s Nikolas Panigirtzoglou, retail investors appear to have been mostly behind the recent rally (although the Robinhood army has yet to fully engage), and indeed the buying of physical gold ETFs, a major vehicle used by retail investors, rose steeply in recent weeks, making this year already the strongest on record with still five months remaining. This is shown in the chart below which shows the annual flow into physical gold ETF in metric tonnes.

As a result of this year’s inflow, the stock of gold in ETFs has reached a record high of close to 110 million ounce far higher than its previous high seen in 2012.

This also means that retail investors are becoming more overweight gold and are approaching the 2012 highs. This in turn is shown in the next chart which shows the ratio of the outstanding amount of gold ETFs in dollar terms divided by the dollar value of equity and bond funds worldwide.

This ratio, which can be considered as proxy for the gold allocation of retail investors, is only .03% away from its peak of 0.5% seen in 2012. It remains to be seen whether this previous high gold allocation of 2012 will be breached or not in the current conjuncture. At the moment the chart above implies further room for the gold rally to continue.

Retail investors aside, what about tactical institutional investors such as hedge funds? To gauge the exposure of speculative institutional investors such as hedge funds, JPMorgan looks at the spec position on gold futures reported by CFTC every week. This is shown in the final chart which shows that the spec position in gold futures is some way from its Feb peak, also leaving quite a bit of room for further rally.

JPMorgan’s conclusion: “In all, whether we look at retail investors’ gold allocations or the spec positions on gold futures by hedge funds, we see further room for the gold rally to continue.”  And judging by the spike in precious metals in Sunday’s premarket, traders agree.