Oil Jumps, Small Caps Dump On Lowest Volume Day Of The Year

The gap between global money-supply-fueled equity exuberance and macro- and micro-economic data has never been greater…

Nothing to see here.. move along…

 

With Europe away, volumes were the lightest of the year as China tumbled…

 

US Small Caps were the biggest laggard today and Nasdaq led, barely closing green…a buying-panic began at 1530ET which made things look a little better…

NOTE – it seems the machines forgot that EU was closed as they rallied the market into the “EU Close”.

This is the 9th straight session of oscillating gains and losses for The Dow.

 

Small Caps have now underperformed Mega Caps for seven straight trading days…

 

But 2900 is all that matters for the S&P 500 traders…

(last 6 days closes for the S&P 500 – 2907, 2906, 2907, 2900, 2905, 2906)

 

Treasury yields were higher on the day, despite equity weakness (long-end underperformed)…

 

30Y remains below 3.00%…

 

The yield curve steepened further…

 

The Dollar flatlined for the second day as most of the world remained on Easter holiday…

 

Bitcoin is holding gains after some notable selling across cryptos on Saturday…

 

PMs trod water along with the dollar but crude spiked as copper was dumped…

 

WTI soared overnight – smashing through a significant technical level – on the back of Trump Iran waiver headlines…

But tried and failed to break $66 twice…

 

Finally, this morning’s dismal housing data sent US Macro Surprise Index to its lowest since June 2017…

Because nothing says record high stocks like the worst macro economy in two years and worst relative to the world.

We’re gonna need more cowbell (but no more cows)…

AOC will not be happy!!

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2KWvGah Tyler Durden

Will 2020 Democrats Spook the Stock Market?

“Political risk” used to be something American investors worried about in connection with foreign countries. It had to do with assessing the likelihood that a dictator would seize power and decide to nationalize the oil industry or the banks. Or that a war would break out and close shipping lanes.

Increasingly, though—and especially headed into the 2020 presidential election—political risk is looming over the U.S. domestic economy and financial markets.

I’m not talking about the risk of President Trump starting a trade war with China, Canada, Mexico, or Europe, though investors have reacted to that threat at times, too.

The bigger concern is the chance that a Democrat will spook the stock markets by appearing likely to defeat President Trump. In a worst-case scenario for Trump, this can even be a self-fulfilling prophecy: the stock market declines in anticipation of his potentially losing, and the decline then undercuts one of Trump’s best re-election selling points, the strong economy.

A big part of the story is taxes. An underappreciated political fact of the past 30 years in America is that every president has changed the tax rates. In the three decades between 1988 and 2018 America had six presidents. The best of them, Ronald Reagan, left office with the top individual income tax rate at the lowest level: 28 percetnt. George H.W. Bush raised it to 31 percent. Bill Clinton raised it to 39.6 percent. George W. Bush lowered it to 35 percent. Barack Obama raised it back to 39.6 percent. Donald Trump lowered it to 37 percent.

Those top marginal rates don’t tell the whole tax story. Clinton and congressional Republicans cut the capital gains tax to 20 percent from 28 percent. George W. Bush cut taxes on dividends and long-term capital gains to 15 percent. And Trump cut the corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent.

For investors, though, a U.S. tax increase has a similar effect to a third-world dictator seizing a previously profitable private enterprise. It amounts to the government taking property away from the people who had previously thought they owned it. That does not inspire confidence. Instead, it erodes it.

Ideally, property rights are fixed and based on a predictable rule of law. The oscillating tax rates instead feed the perception that how much of what you earn the government will allow you to keep is dependent on which political party happens to occupy the White House.

One needn’t be an expert soothsayer to predict that if a Democrat defeats Trump in the 2020 presidential election, taxes will increase. Joe Biden was vice president during the Obama tax increases. Bernie Sanders is a self-described socialist who ran in 2016 with a plan to raise the top federal individual income tax rate to 54.2 percent and to tax dividends and capital gains as ordinary income. Pete Buttigieg has said “Tax cuts for the wealthiest…some of ’em are gonna have to be reversed.” Elizabeth Warren has proposed raising taxes by $2.75 trillion over ten years with a new “wealth tax.”

Beyond the overall threat posed by tax increases, the Democrats also could endanger specific sectors of the economy.

A “green new deal” or similar efforts to combat climate change by rapidly changing American energy policy might be good for electric car companies, solar-panel installers, and wind-turbine technicians, but trouble if you own an oil or gas pipeline, refinery, or drilling company.

Medicare-for-all or similar pushes for increased government involvement in health care could hurt profits of health insurance companies and the pharmaceutical industry. Axios reports that even Republicans are getting ready to gang up on the drug companies, raising the possibility of a bipartisan deal this year on the issue. The New York Times paraphrased a Goldman Sachs analyst, Stephen Tanal, as saying that “fear of government intervention would probably weigh on health care share prices ‘perhaps until the presidential election itself.'”

Democrats respond to these concerns by citing analyses that the stock market does well in Democratic administrations, or by warning that Republican tax cuts, if “paid for” by borrowing to cover deficits, could eventually precipitate a financial crisis. Some of them also argue that the stock market or the overall economy is driven by business cycles largely unrelated to marginal tax rates.

What the studies about stock market performance during Democratic administrations don’t account for, though, are expectations-based sell-offs that precede those administrations. So, for example, looking at the performance of the stock market during President Obama’s term would ignore the nearly 20 percent plunge that took place after Obama was elected but before he was inaugurated, and it’d give Obama credit for the 6 percent rise between when President Trump was elected and when Trump was inaugurated. Control of Congress matters, too—some of the stock market gains during the Clinton and Obama years were racked up when Republicans in Congress put some constraints on Democrats in the White House.

U.S. politics aren’t the only factor affecting stock prices. Monetary policy and global trends matter, too. Long-term savers think about periods longer than a presidential term. If Trump is re-elected, the tax plans of Sanders and Warren will be irrelevant. But until Election Day, investors who entirely ignore U.S. political risk do so at their own peril.

Ira Stoll is editor of FutureOfCapitalism.com and author of JFK, Conservative.

from Latest – Reason.com http://bit.ly/2IBPkWX
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Will 2020 Democrats Spook the Stock Market?

“Political risk” used to be something American investors worried about in connection with foreign countries. It had to do with assessing the likelihood that a dictator would seize power and decide to nationalize the oil industry or the banks. Or that a war would break out and close shipping lanes.

Increasingly, though—and especially headed into the 2020 presidential election—political risk is looming over the U.S. domestic economy and financial markets.

I’m not talking about the risk of President Trump starting a trade war with China, Canada, Mexico, or Europe, though investors have reacted to that threat at times, too.

The bigger concern is the chance that a Democrat will spook the stock markets by appearing likely to defeat President Trump. In a worst-case scenario for Trump, this can even be a self-fulfilling prophecy: the stock market declines in anticipation of his potentially losing, and the decline then undercuts one of Trump’s best re-election selling points, the strong economy.

A big part of the story is taxes. An underappreciated political fact of the past 30 years in America is that every president has changed the tax rates. In the three decades between 1988 and 2018 America had six presidents. The best of them, Ronald Reagan, left office with the top individual income tax rate at the lowest level: 28 percetnt. George H.W. Bush raised it to 31 percent. Bill Clinton raised it to 39.6 percent. George W. Bush lowered it to 35 percent. Barack Obama raised it back to 39.6 percent. Donald Trump lowered it to 37 percent.

Those top marginal rates don’t tell the whole tax story. Clinton and congressional Republicans cut the capital gains tax to 20 percent from 28 percent. George W. Bush cut taxes on dividends and long-term capital gains to 15 percent. And Trump cut the corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent.

For investors, though, a U.S. tax increase has a similar effect to a third-world dictator seizing a previously profitable private enterprise. It amounts to the government taking property away from the people who had previously thought they owned it. That does not inspire confidence. Instead, it erodes it.

Ideally, property rights are fixed and based on a predictable rule of law. The oscillating tax rates instead feed the perception that how much of what you earn the government will allow you to keep is dependent on which political party happens to occupy the White House.

One needn’t be an expert soothsayer to predict that if a Democrat defeats Trump in the 2020 presidential election, taxes will increase. Joe Biden was vice president during the Obama tax increases. Bernie Sanders is a self-described socialist who ran in 2016 with a plan to raise the top federal individual income tax rate to 54.2 percent and to tax dividends and capital gains as ordinary income. Pete Buttigieg has said “Tax cuts for the wealthiest…some of ’em are gonna have to be reversed.” Elizabeth Warren has proposed raising taxes by $2.75 trillion over ten years with a new “wealth tax.”

Beyond the overall threat posed by tax increases, the Democrats also could endanger specific sectors of the economy.

A “green new deal” or similar efforts to combat climate change by rapidly changing American energy policy might be good for electric car companies, solar-panel installers, and wind-turbine technicians, but trouble if you own an oil or gas pipeline, refinery, or drilling company.

Medicare-for-all or similar pushes for increased government involvement in health care could hurt profits of health insurance companies and the pharmaceutical industry. Axios reports that even Republicans are getting ready to gang up on the drug companies, raising the possibility of a bipartisan deal this year on the issue. The New York Times paraphrased a Goldman Sachs analyst, Stephen Tanal, as saying that “fear of government intervention would probably weigh on health care share prices ‘perhaps until the presidential election itself.'”

Democrats respond to these concerns by citing analyses that the stock market does well in Democratic administrations, or by warning that Republican tax cuts, if “paid for” by borrowing to cover deficits, could eventually precipitate a financial crisis. Some of them also argue that the stock market or the overall economy is driven by business cycles largely unrelated to marginal tax rates.

What the studies about stock market performance during Democratic administrations don’t account for, though, are expectations-based sell-offs that precede those administrations. So, for example, looking at the performance of the stock market during President Obama’s term would ignore the nearly 20 percent plunge that took place after Obama was elected but before he was inaugurated, and it’d give Obama credit for the 6 percent rise between when President Trump was elected and when Trump was inaugurated. Control of Congress matters, too—some of the stock market gains during the Clinton and Obama years were racked up when Republicans in Congress put some constraints on Democrats in the White House.

U.S. politics aren’t the only factor affecting stock prices. Monetary policy and global trends matter, too. Long-term savers think about periods longer than a presidential term. If Trump is re-elected, the tax plans of Sanders and Warren will be irrelevant. But until Election Day, investors who entirely ignore U.S. political risk do so at their own peril.

Ira Stoll is editor of FutureOfCapitalism.com and author of JFK, Conservative.

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Mystery Donor “Worth Over $200 Million” Wants To See Ocasio-Cortez Defeated Next Election

A wealthy donor “worth over $200 million” wants to make sure Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez loses her next election, according to the New York Post, citing Bronx Republican chairman Mike Rendino. 

“There’s definitely national energy and money on this race,” Rendino told the Post, adding that the mystery donor has “connections to raise money in Manhattan.” 

The Democratic Socialist, who was elected after convincing voters she was a blue-collar “girl from the Bronx” despite growing up in one of the wealthiest enclaves on the East Coast, already faces challenges from one contender; Egyptian-American medical journalist Ruth Papazian – while a former cop-turned-high school civics teacher and a conservative talk radio producer may toss their hats in the ring as well. 

The three potential contenders agree on one thing: They believe Ocasio-Cortez has neglected her district, which encompasses a northeast section of the Bronx including Throgs Neck and Parkchester and a northwest portion of Queens including Jackson Heights and College Point.

It took the congresswoman two months to open a district office in Queens.

She completely ignores the people in this district,” medical writer Ruth Papazian, 61, told The Post during an interview at the homestyle Italian eatery Patricia’s of Morris Park. –New York Post

Papazian lives several blocks away from Morris Park with her 85-year-old mother in the same apartment she grew up in following the family’s emigration from Egypt in 1956. 

“I’ve lived here my whole life. I know the heart and soul of this community. The people here have scratched and clawed their way into the middle class, and they’re not about to be impoverished with the high taxes it will take to make the Green New Deal and Medicare for all,” said Papazian – referring to two of Ocasio-Cortez’s policy goals. 

According to former Gov. Pataki deputy, Tom Doherty, a Republican challenger to Ocasio-Cortez would have no problem trying to “raise real national money.” 

“We need to put individuals forward and make the incumbent work for re-election,” said Doherty. 

Papazian has met with former Trump campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, at a Lincoln Day dinner in Queens, where a source told the Post: “He was encouraging and offered to be helpful when Ruth has demonstrated that she can raise enough money for a serious race.” 

AOC won the 14th Congressional District with over 78% of the vote, while Hillary Clinton had 57% in 2016, however a recent Siena College Poll found that while 52% of AOC’s constituents view her favorably, just 33% backed her opposition to Amazon bringing a second headquarters to Queens, and just 41% support her Green New Deal. 

“She’s only interested in a national platform, and we need local representation,” says former NYPD Officer John Cummings. The 58-year-old who now teaches US government at St. Raymond High School for Boys in Parkchester is considering a run against the Democratic Socialist. Cummings acknowledges that “it’s a difficult road because this is a heavily Democratic district.”

Her other potential challenger – Mark Levin producer Rich Valdes joked that Ocasio-Cortez’s initials could stand for “ambition over constituents.” The 40-year-old launched an exploratory committee in February, meeting with Republican clubs in the Bronx and Queens. 

“They’re really, really kind of discouraged at the fact that she was elected on this platform of representing the district because she ran against [former Rep. Joe] Crowley, positing him as being no-show, and she’d turned out to be very much the same way a no-show person,” said Valdes. 

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Gx6em7 Tyler Durden

Jim Kunstler: The RussiaGate Fiasco Is Only Half Over

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

Unfortunately for the nation, the RussiaGate fiasco is only half over. There is just too much documented official turpitude on the public record for the authorities to answer for and the institutional damage runs too deep. Act One, the Mueller investigation, was a 22-month circle-jerk of prosecutorial misconduct and media malfeasance. Act Two will be the circular firing squad of former officials assassinating each other’s character to desperately avoid prosecution.

In the meantime, there is the nation’s business which has been hopelessly burdened by an hallucinatory overlay of Wokester idiocy emanating from the campuses, so that even in the absence of the Mueller distraction every organized endeavor in this land from-sea-to-shining-sea is paralyzed by race-and-gender hustles. Next up: a national debate over reparations for slavery in the never-ending quest to monetize moral posturing. Won’t that be a mighty string of knots to untangle? Who qualifies, exactly? What about the indigenous people whose lands were overrun? And what about the Japanese interned in 1941? And what about women prevented from earning salaries all those lost decades of housewifery? And what about the brown people from many lands whose families did not come here until slavery was a long time gone? Do Silicon Valley engineers from India, and thoracic surgeons from the Philippines have to pay up for the sins of Whitey?

That circus won’t stop until America gets whapped upside the head by economic reality and, really, who is paying attention to that? The shale oil “miracle” has put even the superstars of economic commentary to sleep, though the quandary in plain sight is that the mighty flow of shale oil doesn’t pencil out as a money-making enterprise, and the whole project is destined to fall part even more rapidly than in the decade since it was ramped up. When the private oil companies finally sink into bankruptcy, the obvious “solution” will be to nationalize the industry — a giant step toward destroying the dollar and whatever residual value the industry might have had.

After a month-long case of influenza around Christmas time, the financial markets recovered and are once again demonstrating that they only go up — in defiance of the laws of physics, which actually do apply to markets and economies. It’s a fantastic stunt of computer algo math and misplaced faith in magic, and when it all blows up, as it must, it will make all the other delusions spinning in American life look like mere passing impure thoughts. The notional wealth involved — which is to say, the wealth of nations — has two ways to evaporate: either the stocks, bonds, and other derivatives lose their value, or the money that they represent loses its value. In either case the wealth will be gone and America will be left with the sad recognition that it is broke both privately and publicly.

In the background lay the ticking time bombs of health care, college loan debt, and pension funds.

These are rackets and Ponzi schemes.

Before we get to Medicare-for-all, I’d like to see congress pass one simple law requiring all medical service “providers” in the land to publicly post the price of all their services, from the cost of heart transplants down to those $90 Tylenols they dispense. Let’s see how that affects the lawless hocus-pocus of insurance companies “negotiating” their payments with the medical corporatocracy before we go whole-hog for a nationalized health service.

The colleges have already destroyed themselves intellectually, and thereby the value of their overpriced credentialing services. The smaller colleges are already folding, and many more will follow now until higher education becomes a boutique industry.

The pension funds are truly big, ominous bombs, because when they fail, they will set up unresolvable fiscal problems that will turn ugly and political. Even if the federal government attempts some kind of “one-time” bail-out, it will not solve the embedded Ponzi problem of a system that has to pay off an ever-expanding pool of claims with an ever-diminishing stream of revenue. It will only be another swipe of the blade cutting off the legs of the US dollar so that it in end every pensioner will receive his-or-her promised payout in dollars that are increasingly worthless. We may even discover that the opioid epidemic has been the only thing keeping the immiserated denizens of Flyover-land from resorting to violent insurrection.

These internal problems of the USA point in the direction of states and whole regions stealthily seceding from a federal system that can’t run itself competently at scale anymore. The process has already begun in such acts of defiance as “sanctuary states” and the burgeoning marijuana industry. Unlike the calamity of 1861, though, there may be no way to even attempt to hold the old Union together, even by force. Instead, as is the case with all foundering empires, the end will be a sickening slide into a new and strange disposition of things. One of the last successful acts of the American empire may be to send the RussiaGate instigators to jail.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2UUmOGZ Tyler Durden

Dems Facing Crisis As Pelosi Pleads To Pass On Trump Impeachment

Define irony: while Robert Mueller’s decision not to deliver a prosecutor’s opinion on his investigation was the biggest gift so far in Trump’s administration, it may end up splitting the Democratic party as the decision of how to respond to the report’s carte blanche to launching impeachment proceedings against Trump by Congressional democrats has created a major headache for Nancy Pelosi.

As we reported over the weekend, in the days since the redacted Mueller report was released, many members of the Democrats’ progressive wing have rebelled against Pelosi’s decree that impeachment isn’t on the table – a strategy devised to protect Democrats in swing districts whose mid-term triumphs effectively handed Dems control of the House (despite all the media coverage they’ve received, AOC and the three other members of her WoC clique had little to do with the Democrats’ electoral triumph). And, in a major surprise for many far left democrats, Pelosi was reportedly scrambling to suppress demands made by AOC, Elizabeth Warren that the House explore the possibility of impeaching Trump on attempted obstruction of justice.

Fast forward to today, when facing mounting pressure for an official position, House majority leader Nancy Pelosi pushed back on Democrats calling for the impeachment of President Donald Trump, even though she said the president “engaged in highly unethical and unscrupulous behavior which does not bring honor to the office he holds.”

In a “Dear Colleague” letter posted on Monday, Pelosi basically closed the door on impeaching Donald Trump, saying that impeachment proceedings are not the only way to uncover the facts needed for Congress to hold Trump “accountable.” The letter comes before a caucus-wide conference call with House Democrats to discuss her party’s response to the investigation of Russian influence in the 2016 presidential election according to Bloomberg. Pelosi also conceded Democrats don’t all agree on what course they should take following the report’s release last week.

“While our views range from proceeding to investigate the findings of the Mueller report or proceeding directly to impeachment, we all firmly agree that we should proceed down a path of finding the truth. It is also important to know that the facts regarding holding the President accountable can be gained outside of impeachment hearings,” Pelosi wrote.

Pelosi, who risks a schism within the Democratic party between those, mostly on the far left fringe demanding impeachment proceedings and those who are pushing for a centrist play, also wrote that it is “important to know that the facts regarding holding the president accountable can be gained outside of impeachment hearings.”

Still, Pelosi emphasized that the caucus will continue with its investigative efforts.

“As to the President’s conduct, we will scrupulously assert Congress’ constitutional duty to honor our oath of office to support and defend the Constitution and our democracy. That includes honoring the Article I responsibility of the legislative branch to conduct oversight over the other branches of government, unified in our search for the truth and in upholding the security of our elections.”

Aside from impeachment, House leaders have suggested some type of censure resolution as another possible outcome of an investigation, a toothless outcome which would assure another victory parade for the president.

“As we proceed to uncover the truth and present additional needed reforms to protect our democracy, we must show the American people we are proceeding free from passion or prejudice, strictly on the presentation of fact,” she wrote.

“Whether currently indictable or not, it is clear that the President has, at a minimum, engaged in highly unethical and unscrupulous behavior which does not bring honor to the office he holds. It is also clear that the Congressional Republicans have an unlimited appetite for such low standards. The GOP should be ashamed of what the Mueller report has revealed, instead of giving the President their blessings,” Pelosi wrote in the letter, effectively sending the ball in the republicans’ court, where – since the GOP is not at all ashamed of what the Mueller report has revealed – it will promptly be forgotten.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2UAe1EJ Tyler Durden

What Did Libertarians Learn from the Mueller Report?

Now that the smoke has cleared from the Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Donald Trump’s suspected (and now-disregarded) criminal conspiracy with Russia and his potential obstruction of the investigation thereof, there are many questions that still remain, including: Should we be alarmed by the role that counterterrorism-investigation leaks played in kickstarting this investigation? Are there specific trims to government power that this whole episode suggests, and if so why aren’t they being discussed? Is it useful to have conversations about having conversations about conversations?

All of these riddles and more are hotly debated on this week’s Editors’ Roundtable edition of the Reason Podcast, betwixt Katherine Mangu-WardNick Gillespie, Peter Suderman and Matt Welch. The episode also features a name-that-Democratic-candidate pop quiz, a quick round of Biden-kicking, and—yes, nerds (sigh)—some discussion of that television show from last night.

Subscribe, rate, and review our podcast at iTunes.

Audio production by Ian Keyser.

‘Lies Rise’ by Cullah is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0

Relevant links from the show:

What’s Really in the Mueller Report,” by Scott Shackford

Trump May Not Be Guilty of Obstruction, but He Is Guilty of Arrogant Stupidity,” by Jacob Sullum

Trump May Not Have Obstructed the Mueller Investigation, but It Sure Looks Like He Tried,” by Peter Suderman

In Defense of Trump Obstructing Justice (When There’s No Underlying Crime),” by Nick Gillespie

If Either Party Cared About Limiting Executive Power, Trump’s Presidency Would Be Toast,” by Eric Boehm

Standing on the Shoulders of Tyrants,” by Gene Healy

The CBO Was Created to Provide a Check on Executive Power,” by Peter Suderman

Joe Biden Is Probably Running for President. He’s Got a Lot of Baggage.” by Christian Britschgi

Joe Biden Says He Didn’t Do Anything Wrong, Will Do Better From Now On,” by Christian Britschgi

Hair-Sniffer Joe Biden Should Apologize for His Whole Career,” by Matt Welch

All the Top Democrats Running for President Favor Legalizing Marijuana,” by Matt Welch

Elizabeth Warren Wants You To Know She Totally Loves Game of Thrones. Especially Daenerys. Yay, Women!” by Robby Soave

from Latest – Reason.com http://bit.ly/2UtzZti
via IFTTT

What Did Libertarians Learn from the Mueller Report?

Now that the smoke has cleared from the Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Donald Trump’s suspected (and now-disregarded) criminal conspiracy with Russia and his potential obstruction of the investigation thereof, there are many questions that still remain, including: Should we be alarmed by the role that counterterrorism-investigation leaks played in kickstarting this investigation? Are there specific trims to government power that this whole episode suggests, and if so why aren’t they being discussed? Is it useful to have conversations about having conversations about conversations?

All of these riddles and more are hotly debated on this week’s Editors’ Roundtable edition of the Reason Podcast, betwixt Katherine Mangu-WardNick Gillespie, Peter Suderman and Matt Welch. The episode also features a name-that-Democratic-candidate pop quiz, a quick round of Biden-kicking, and—yes, nerds (sigh)—some discussion of that television show from last night.

Subscribe, rate, and review our podcast at iTunes.

Audio production by Ian Keyser.

‘Lies Rise’ by Cullah is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0

Relevant links from the show:

What’s Really in the Mueller Report,” by Scott Shackford

Trump May Not Be Guilty of Obstruction, but He Is Guilty of Arrogant Stupidity,” by Jacob Sullum

Trump May Not Have Obstructed the Mueller Investigation, but It Sure Looks Like He Tried,” by Peter Suderman

In Defense of Trump Obstructing Justice (When There’s No Underlying Crime),” by Nick Gillespie

If Either Party Cared About Limiting Executive Power, Trump’s Presidency Would Be Toast,” by Eric Boehm

Standing on the Shoulders of Tyrants,” by Gene Healy

The CBO Was Created to Provide a Check on Executive Power,” by Peter Suderman

Joe Biden Is Probably Running for President. He’s Got a Lot of Baggage.” by Christian Britschgi

Joe Biden Says He Didn’t Do Anything Wrong, Will Do Better From Now On,” by Christian Britschgi

Hair-Sniffer Joe Biden Should Apologize for His Whole Career,” by Matt Welch

All the Top Democrats Running for President Favor Legalizing Marijuana,” by Matt Welch

Elizabeth Warren Wants You To Know She Totally Loves Game of Thrones. Especially Daenerys. Yay, Women!” by Robby Soave

from Latest – Reason.com http://bit.ly/2UtzZti
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Americans Are In Deep Trouble: 23% Save Nothing From Paychecks

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Americans continue to dig themselves in a deeper and deeper hole.  While many have no savings, they continue to pile on the debt and liabilities.  All of these problems will make the next recession difficult for most to get through financially.

A new report by Forbes states that 23% (nearly one in four) Americans are saving not even one penny from their paychecks. As part of its 2019 Savings Survey, First National Bank of Omaha examined Americans’ habits, behaviors, and priorities when it comes to saving, monthly spending, and retirement planning.  And based on the fact that nearly 80% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, the rest of the results of the survey are, unfortunately, unsurprising.

According to the survey, only 40% of Americans prioritize their savings for their emergency fund with 27% saying their highest priority is saving for their retirement. 39% of Americans plan on putting this year’s tax refund in a savings account while 25% have never withdrawn from their savings account.  Most Americans are optimistic too, with 60% reporting that they are “somewhat” or “very likely” to be on track with their savings to retire by age 65.

But those few decent statistics don’t detract from the scary ones.  Such as, 63% of Americans do not set annual savings goals and 74% of Americans put 10% or less of their monthly paycheck towards savings. In fact, 23% reported that they put in 0% of their monthly paycheck toward savings.

Almost half (49%) said they only have enough liquid funds to cover living expenses for 0-3 months and 26% attribute high costs of living as to why they don’t have as much in savings as they would like.  With the level of debt Americans have saddled themselves with, easy to see why they are blaming the cost of living as opposed to their oppressive monthly debt repayments.  However, only 13% say credit card debt prevents them from saving while 13% say student loan debt prevents them from saving.

The truth is, the sooner we all, individually and as a society, get a grip on our debt and overspending, the sooner we could be on our way to real wealth and prosperity. It’s an easy journey to start, but not an easy one to go through with.  One can simply find themselves buried in debt while digging out could take years.

There is no time like the present to start though and it can be done!  First, you’ll need to live on less than you make.  Cut cable out and reduce your spending at restaurants.  These are both pretty simple ways to cut costs, and believe us: reading is better for your mental health than TV anyway! And on this subject of cutting costs, a book we recommend is called Everday Millionaires, written by Chris Hogan.  In this book, Hogan describes the daily habits of ordinary people who became extraordinarily wealthy and the simple ways they reduced their costs and lived below their means to accomplish millionaire status.

Hogan destroys millionaire myths that are keeping everyday people from achieving financial independence. Chris and the [Dave] Ramsey research team surveyed over 10,000 United States millionaires, discovering how these high-net-worth people reached their financial status and compiled the information into an easy-to-read book that will have you on your way to becoming wealthy.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2IBED6L Tyler Durden

The First Amendment and the Hybrid Preliminary Injunction

[I’m continuing to serialize my forthcoming Penn Law Review article on Anti-Libel Injunctions.]

A. The Hybrid Preliminary Injunction

If I am right that the hybrid permanent injunction is constitutional—because it gives defendants all the First Amendment protections offered by valid criminal libel laws, and does so with less of a chilling effect on nonlibelous speech—then hybrid preliminary injunctions should be constitutional, too. They would adequately protect defendants, while giving plaintiffs the opportunity to deter libels starting shortly after they file a lawsuit, rather than having to wait until after the lawsuit is adjudicated.

Let us return to Paula and Don, and imagine that Paula gets a preliminary injunction. Shortly after she files her lawsuit, a judge concludes that she is likely to succeed on the merits: Don’s statement that Paula cheated him is likely true.

This is just a tentative decision, the judge acknowledges, based on limited time for briefing and likely no discovery. But that’s what the judge thinks, so the judge issues an injunction: “Don shall not libelously state that Paula cheated him”; and, as with the hybrid permanent injunction, the injunction provides that any criminal contempt trial for violating it shall be before a jury,

Like the hybrid permanent injunction, the hybrid preliminary injunction would provide all the procedural protections offered by criminal libel law: Don can’t be convicted of criminal contempt unless the criminal jury finds, beyond a reasonable doubt, that his post-injunction statements about Paula are indeed libelous; and Don would be entitled to a court-appointed defense lawyer to argue that the statements weren’t libelous. They thus lack the primary defect of specific preliminary injunctions—the punishment of speech without a prior finding on the merits that the speech is actually constitutionally unprotected.

Also like with the hybrid permanent injunction, Don would also be exposed to criminal punishment only for repeating specific statements. Unlike with the hybrid permanent injunction, those would be statements that the judge found libelous based on the abbreviated preliminary injunction process rather than after a full trial. But despite that, the hybrid preliminary injunction would still have less of a chilling effect than a catchall injunction or than a criminal libel law, which would put Don in jeopardy as to any libelous statements.

But unlike with the hybrid permanent injunction, the hybrid preliminary injunctions opens the door to criminal punishment—and therefore helps deter future libels—near the start of the lawsuit, rather than years later.

Hybrid preliminary injunctions, like hybrid permanent injunctions, haven’t yet been tested in appellate courts, or even issued by trial courts. But I think they would be consistent with the First Amendment, and often a good idea.

Indeed, one recent preliminary injunction does seem to lean in this direction. In 2 Sons Plumbing, LLC v. Herring, 2 Sons claimed that Romare Harring had criticized 2 Sons only while falsely claiming to be a customer (in some places) and a former employee (in others); they sued for, among other things, violating California law that bars such impersonation. The District Court concluded that there was enough to their claim to justify a temporary restraining order. But it crafted the injunction so that any impersonation would still have to be shown at a criminal contempt hearing, rather than treating his preliminary conclusion as binding in such a hearing:

(2) Defendant Romare Herring is barred, prohibited, and restrained from posting reviews of 2 Sons Plumbing, LLC and/or Joe’s Plumbing Co. claiming that Defendant was a customer of such business when Defendant was not actually a customer;

(4) Defendant Romare Herring is barred, prohibited, and restrained from posting on the Internet a webpage claiming to be affiliated with 2 Sons Plumbing, LLC and/or Joe’s Plumbing Co. if Defendant is not affiliated with those businesses.

If it turns out that Herring is indeed affiliated with 2 Sons or Joe’s, and he repeats that statement, the terms of provision (4) wouldn’t make him liable; likewise if he was indeed a customer, and posts reviews of 2 Sons or Joes so stating. The order isn’t as precise as it could be; for instance, the “when” in (2), unlike the “if” in (4), could be read as a statement that the court is conclusively finding that Herring wasn’t actually a customer, rather than a provision that the order applies only under the circumstances (to be found conclusively later) that Herring wasn’t a customer. Moreover, provisions (1) and (3) require the takedown of earlier posts without any such condition. Still, the order, and especially provision (4), points towards the approach that I describe here.

B, The Hybrid Ex Parte Temporary Restraining Order

In principle, even temporary restraining orders—including ones obtained ex parte—could be permissible so long as they only ban libelously repeating certain statements.

Such an order would, as with the hybrid preliminary injunction, punish no more speech than a criminal libel law would, since any criminal contempt punishment would be contingent on the jury finding (after a full trial) that the statements were indeed libelous. By its very terms, it would be limited to constitutionally unprotected speech; and whether any particular statement is unprotected and therefore forbidden would have to be determined at an adversary criminal contempt hearing. [Footnote: This makes such hybrid orders unlike the ex parte order in Carroll v. President & Comm’rs of Princess Anne, 393 U.S. 175 (1968), which by its terms prohibited speech that would generally be constitutionally protected, without an adversarial hearing at which the defendants could respond to the plaintiffs’ arguments that this protection should be lost on the facts of the case.]

But while such hybrid ex parte TROs may be constitutional, they should be avoided. The advantage of hybrid injunctions over catchall injunctions is that they are limited to speech that a judge has concluded is likely false and defamatory. This judicial conclusion doesn’t itself suffice for forbidding the speech outright, since the defendant should have an opportunity to argue his case to a jury (which is the advantage of hybrid injunctions over specific injunctions); but the conclusion is still an important protection for speakers. Any injunction should be entered based on the judge’s hearing both sides’ factual theories, both sides’ legal analyses, and both sides’ analyses of how the injunction should be crafted.

Sometimes, of course, such an adversary presentation is impossible, for instance if the defendants are anonymous and can’t be identified using reasonable pre-injunction discovery, or if they simply refuse to show up. But plaintiffs should be required to at least try to serve defendants and give them an opportunity to be heard before even a hybrid injunction is issued.

[You might also read my earlier posts on the subject,

Or you can read the whole article, which is forthcoming in the University of Pennsylvania Law Review, in PDF.]

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