Tag: news

Corey Lewandowski, a top Trump advisor known for being the first campaign manager to work with the president, has tested positive for the coronavirus, according to media reports citing insiders within the administration.

Lewandowski reportedly tested positive Wednesday; he has been in Philadelphia all week as the Trump campaign has continued to bring lawsuits related to the election results.

NEW – Corey Lewandowski, Trump adviser who’s been working on efforts to bring lawsuits alleging illegal election activity in specific states, tested positive for COVID yesterday per a person briefed. Lewandowski had been in Philly for days and believes he contracted it there.

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) November 12, 2020

He was at the White House election night party, but tested positive eight days later.

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) November 12, 2020

Lewandowski is the latest in a string of top TrumpWorld figures to test positive over the past week. Others have included Mark Meadows, and a group of other White House staffers. Lewandowski attended the White House election night party, but for what it’s worth, Lewandowski believes he contracted the virus in Philadelphia, and even the NYT’s Maggie Haberman suggested that he likely didn’t contract the virus at the White House.

Earlier we featured the worrisome prospect of a second national coronavirus lockdown under a future Biden administration, considering the latest scientist to join Joe Biden’s “special coronavirus transition advisory team” is calling for just that.

Dr. Michael Osterholm, who serves as director of the Center of Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, now one of Biden’s coronavirus task force doctors told Yahoo News the following on Wednesday: “We could pay for a package right now to cover all of the lost wages for individual workers… if we did that, then we could lockdown for 4 to 6 weeks.”

But we know that’s unlikely to go well based on the latest polling data, as it appears the majority of Americans would not conform to such new stay-at-home orders and travel restrictions:

Americans are less likely to comply with another coronavirus lockdown than they were in the spring, with fewer than half saying in a new poll that they’re very likely to stay home this time around, according to a new Gallup Poll released as record numbers of cases skyrocket nationwide.

Here’s the data, according to Gallup, based on the poll taken between Oct.19 and Nov.1:

• 49% say they’re “very likely” to stay home for a month if mandated, down from 67% who said they would in the spring.
• 18% said they were “somewhat likely” to comply.
• One-third said they would be “unlikely” to comply with new lockdown orders.
• This despite 61% saying they believe the situation is getting worse.
• The number of respondents who said they’d be unlikely to comply is double the rate seen from polls in the spring.

However, it appears more Americans are intentional about social distancing measures, including wearing masks, compared to in the spring.

One of Biden’s new coronavirus task force doctors floating the idea of a 4-6 week lockdown:

“We could pay for a package right now to cover all of the lost wages for individual workers … if we did that, then we could lockdown for 4 to 6 weeks.”pic.twitter.com/zNmuQvPpIJ

— Zack Guzman (@zGuz) November 11, 2020

As Newsmax summarizes of the numbers: “Meanwhile, the number of people who are wearing masks has gone up sharply.” 

The report states “Only about half of Americans reported in April that they were wearing masks, just after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggested wearing them. Now, 88% reported they wear masks, after the number went up to 92% in July.” 

Having traded near sessions highs, the Emini swooned nearly 20 points lower as fiscal stimulus noise and signal returned to the forefront after Sen Mitch McConnnell spoke in the Senate and agreed that while “there should be another fiscal stimulus package,” he caveated that he was not interested in “dramatically larger” stimulus. As a reminder, one month ago, McConnell advocated for a $500BN package, while Democrats led by Nancy Pelosi argued for a 2.2TN package in earlier negotiations with the White House coming on the side of Democrats in demanding an even higher stimulus.

However, perhaps due to its bigger challenges with challenging the election outcome, the White House drive for a mega stimulus has now fizzled, with Bloomberg reporting that the Trump administration is now stepping back from stimulus talks. Previously, the administration and its Secretary of the Treasury Ben Mnuchin acted as the liaison for congressional Republicans and Democrats. The focus will now rest primarily on interactions between McConnell and Pelosi until President-Elect Joe Biden is sworn-in January 20.

According to Bloomberg, the White House move “greatly diminishes the chances of a trillion-dollar or more stimulus for the U.S. economy before January.”

The paradox in all of this is that if Trump fails to overturn the election outcome, he will hand Biden a $1.6 trillion blank check: that is how much cash is currently in the Treasury General Account which the US government could quickly distribute to the population… if it so wanted.

Following the news, ES dropped about 20 points but has since recovered some of the loss…

… while 10Y yields dropped to session lows, briefly sliding below 0.90%.

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.”

Whatever markets thought on Monday after Pfizer announced salvation from Coronavirus.… we are not saved… yet! The brutal reality is we’re still locked on our lifeboat, in the middle of shark (virus) infested seas, and its 1000 miles to land in any direction. The virus will continue to dominate headlines through the winter as infections, hospital admissions and deaths continue to rise across the West. 

The news out the US of a larger 3rd wave spike, and the UK passing 50,000 dead, confirm that although the war might be won, the battles will continue. The difference is we know it’s going to end – the vaccines are coming. Life will resume as normal – just not immediately… not as quickly as the market appeared to believe Monday.  

The immediate reaction to the first virus news earlier this week was “reversal”: Dump the stocks that did so well under pandemic conditions and buy the sectors that were battered. That was hailed as the great “rotation”out of tech stocks and into firms with good “fundamentals”.  If you timed it well – as apparently the CEO of Pfizer might have – it was a great buying opportunity.

Markets have been making a more sober assessment as the week has wound on. The simple rotation analysis ignored the facts about how much the world has changed, and about the way we adopt and accept new ideas and Tech for the long-term. Zoom and Teams will remain critical business tools and will become even more refined in the way we use them. Consumers are not going to dump their streaming channels. 

Most, if not all, new revenue streams are created in the Tech Sector from either doing something old better and more profitably, or inventing a completely new way to extract cash. The accelerated and early adoption of new tech is likely to mean the FAMAG names remain among the key out-performing equites as strong tech with strong fundamentals! 

If I was to pick an approach towards the end of the pandemic it would be leaven up tech weightings with selected recovery stocks – being selective on finance, oil, travel, retail and hospitality winners. (Or, to put it another way; constructing a broadly-based diversified portfolio as a response to “normalisation”.) 

Investing on fundamentals is never a bad idea, but firms that were making solid, sustainable high-quality profits (being dull, boring and predictably successful) will still face changed-world challenges as a result of pandemic. 

I suspect there are a large number of firms likely to still go bust or forced to re-scale – even as the end of the crisis is coming. That may be because their solvency has been so weakened by the pandemic. It may be steepening yield curves and hints of rising rates push zombie companies into oblivion. Or, it may simply be the world has changed so much that previously comfortable business niches have been wiped out or made more challenging these last 8 months. 

For instance; how much of a land grab will Amazon successful retain across the retail sector? It’s a mark of the madness of these days that shops in the UK open during lockdown are not allowed to sell non-essential items as that would be unfair to shops that weren’t allowed to open, but you can still go buy the same goods from the Web.

What’s likely to be interesting is to see just how much more resilient the surviving names may be – the retail firms that survive could well thrive as we rediscover the joy of going out shopping, which airlines are set to take off fastest, grabbing market share and profitability, which Cruise liners will be printing money from renewed bookings, and which oil firms are most successfully making the transition to becoming energy firms with a focus on renewables. How long will banks suffer from the long-term effects of the pandemic recession?

It’s time to put your stock-picking hat on… 

Meanwhile…. Don’t forget the Macro. 

Although everyone is gung-ho about the prospects of a V-Shaped, or maybe a lop-sided W, recovery, the reality is Stock Prices remain highly distorted by the effects of unnaturally low interest rates. Returns on stocks look better relative value than bonds – but that’s only because bond yields are so low. The reality remains stocks were priced at extremely high historical levels before the Coronavirus hit. With the global economy posting negative growth through 2020 (every country, bar China), does it justify yet higher prices? 

There are plenty of warnings about P/E, and just about every other stock market measure of danger. One on hand stocks look vulnerable to correction. On the other, can global central banks afford to remove the low interest rate and QE crutch that sustains prices? Absolutely not! The last thing the global economy needs now would be a confidence sapping market crash. 

But does the economy need further stimulus if the vaccines are on the way? I suspect they will help companies through the transition back to normalisation and if jobs and SMEs can be sustained – and that’s a good base. 

How dangerous are rising levels of Sovereign debt? Governments have become very comfortable pumping money into their economies. They are showing little hesitancy in raising debt – how dangerous is that? 

Conventional wisdom says government debt crowds out private investment, and over 70% debt to GDP an economy starts to falter on too much debt. I question that equation. Everyone says Japan is in crisis because of its 214% debt to GDP ratio – but nearly all JGBs are held by the Bank of Japan. The Bank of England holds a significant part of the Gilt market – get rid of that and the debt level looks fine – it’s just a number. I suggest the Treasury gives the BOE a One Trillion Pound Banknote (the ultimate zero-coupon perpetual) in return for writing off the nearly £1 trillion Gilts held by the bank. 

I’d go even further – governments should borrow more and go spend on recovery, infrastructure and especially Health and Education – but that a story for another day…  

Of course, the Morning Porridge would not be the porridge without a sting in the tail.. As usual its something revealing my status as an investment idiot: 

The speed at which China recovered from the Pandemic, and the likelihood it will continue to post stronger growth and rising consumer wealth made it the no-brainer trade of the year… Except, of course, there is never a no-brainer. My switch into China Tech and stocks has been my worst performing investment of the year – coming just in time to catch the crash in Alibaba as the Chinese government decided on a public chastisement of Jack Ma and to reel in its fintech sector. 

The point is – the unexpected, irrational and no-see-ems will always drive markets. 

For instance.. look at the mess in Downing Street this morning… Now.. I wonder why Carrie got so antsy….? Hah! 

Maricopa County, Arizona GOP Chair Rae Chorenky has been forced to resign after failing to sign the Certificate of Accuracy for voting machines made by Dominion – which have come under recent scrutiny for security vulnerabilities, as well as flipped votes in Antrim County, Michigan (which was later blamed on “human error“).

NBC raised the alarms on Dominion Voting Systems in early 2000. It is the voting system used in 30 states, every majority swing state, and many of the biggest counties. Dominion was used in Michigan where Trump votes switched to Biden. Unbelievable.https://t.co/YZaZS0b4U5 pic.twitter.com/gyEhZEf218

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) November 7, 2020

Adding to suspicions over Dominion machines is a September 30 report in the Philadelphia Inquirer that “a laptop and several memory sticks” used to program voting machines in Philadelphia had mysteriously vanished.

Now, as National File reports, AZ State Rep. (and now Senator-elect) Kelly Townsend called on Chorenky to resign over her failure to sign off on the machines.

Chorenky responded with a flippant tweet – claiming “I’ll resign when you sprout even an ounce of integrity and obtain the intelligence to check your facts before spreading filth about a person whom you don’t know on a topic about which you have not the slightest clue.”

I’ll tell you what, I’ll resign when you sprout even an ounce of integrity and obtain the intelligence to check your facts before spreading filth about a person whom you don’t know on a topic about which you have not the slightest clue.

— Rae Chornenky (@ChornenkyRae) November 10, 2020

To which Townsend produced the certification which Chorenky failed to sign.

I formally & publicly call on Rae Chornenky & 1st Vice Chair Linda Brickman (who should have been there in her stead if she could not make it) to resign effective immediately. This is 100% unacceptable & has contributed to the collapse of Arizona voter confidence. @ChornenkyRae pic.twitter.com/WoXFMQkz9s

— Rep. Kelly Townsend (@KellyTownsend11) November 10, 2020

After Chorenky stepped down, Townsend thanked her “for doing the right thing and stepping down as Chair.” 

More via National File:

“The voting machines, which Chornenky failed to verify, have come under scrutiny themselves. Dominion, the company behind the machines used in Arizona and other states, not only have ties to the Clinton Global Initiative, but also continue to sell decade-old machines that have “known vulnerabilites” that make them susceptible to hacking.“

Watch the voting machine used in US swing states get hacked to rig an election. @Jhalderm, @UMich, and @nytimes demonstrate why every voting district needs an auditable paper ballot. Voting machines are *known* to be insecure. https://t.co/juvU7K3Qdl pic.twitter.com/prsrOGK17z

— Edward Snowden (@Snowden) July 27, 2019

It attempted to alter our election and got caught? https://t.co/J8mcH4SpxG

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 12, 2020

“Securing our elections should not be a partisan issue.”

Early in 2020, Dems held a hearing with 3 major private election vendors, including DOMINION VOTING SYSTEMS.

The Dem. Chair revealed voting components from China, widespread Internet & hacking vulnerability & WORSE.🚨👇 pic.twitter.com/m69dHoxM33

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) November 7, 2020

Fed Chair Jay Powell takes the stage at the ECB Forum for Central Banking along with ECB’s Christine Lagarde and BoE’s Andrew Bailey.

The central bankers will discuss economic stabilization in a dramatically changing environment. We suspect the discussion will be short and will go something like this:

“we’ll do whatever it takes to ensure stocks don’t drop… and while we will pressure politicians to bail us out, we’ll monetize all their debt and print even more to keep the ship afloat for just one more term…and ignore the widening inequalities we are stoking while paying platitudes to fighting inequality”

Of course, they will use big PhD words and long-winded sentences to say that, but the bottom line is simple – welcome to Japan!

Watch live here:

 

Shares of Fox Corp., the corporate parent of Fox News and many of Rupert Murdoch’s remaining media assets following the sale of most of his entertainment business to Disney, are sliding Thursday after President Trump urged viewers to abandon Fox.

In a tweet, Trump essentially blamed the network for the election results, and argued that the network “forgot what made them successful”.

👀 https://t.co/RfBtEjWPug

— 🇺🇸ERIC BOLLING🇺🇸 (@ericbolling) November 12, 2020

To be sure, he’s not entirely off-base here with these comments about Fox’s ratings.

NewsMax TV has spiked in viewership as Trump’s diehard fans are enraged at Fox News, @brianstelter writes. “On Monday the channel averaged 347,000 viewers. On Tuesday, 437,000 viewers…” https://t.co/BQgyOjLroq

— Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) November 12, 2020

Trump’s twitter feed was filled with retweets of viewers complaining about Fox’s coverage and saying they would be migrating to Newsmax.

The intraday drop so far has been more than 6%, the biggest daily drop since last Wednesday, the day after the election, when shares took a beating on the election results.

Trump’s comments probably had more impact since earlier today, Axios reported that the president has revived plans to launch his own digital media offering. Instead of a television channel, which would require enormous startup costs, the president is looking into a digital streaming project to rival Fox’s “Fox Nation” digital-subscription service.

New York City has more students in classrooms than any city in the US. And now that Detroit has just announced plans to close schools, it’s widely expected that NYC will soon follow suit, perhaps even as soon as Thursday.

A couple of weeks ago, we reported that another COVID-19 ‘myth’ had been busted: research by credible scientists over a large set of data has shown that closing schools does little to actually slow the spread of the coronavirus. Schools, the researchers claimed, are more of a reflection of the rate of transmission in the broader community. And even as cases have climbed in NYC over the past six weeks, the positive test rate in NYC schools has been just 0.17% according to the NYT. Public officials have declared the city’s schools as among the safest in the nation.

Yet, as the city’s positivity rate, new cases and hospitalizations climb, Mayor de Blasio has warned that the city is on the cusp of returning to the 3% positivity rate that has been set out as a line in the sand.

But is that really the smartest move for NYC’s economy, and for its children, as the pandemic grinds on? As the NYT points out in a surprisingly critical piece, that includes the voices of parents and business owners questioning epidemiologists urging the closure of schools. In Europe, schools have been deemed “essential services” that must remain open; so far, none of the new lockdowns sweeping the continent have impacted schools.

But in NYC, classrooms might close before bars and restaurants.

To be sure, it’s not the only US city where school closures are still part of the policy mix. Last month, Boston canceled in-person classes, which had been offered only to high-needs students, for just a few weeks. On Tuesday, Philadelphia abandoned plans to reopen schools in November. Both cities, however, still allow some indoor dining. San Francisco, which paused indoor dining this week, never reopened its schools for in-person teaching, despite low transmission rates.

There are 1.1 million students and teachers in NYC schools, but although almost all city schools are open, the vast majority of parents have decided to keep their children learning from home for now, including significant numbers of Asian-American, hispanic and black families. Roughly 300,00 students are currently engaged in in-person education. Classrooms that once sat 30 children are now limited to 9.

Several people quoted by the NYT warned that closing schools again would be heading in the wrong direction. Uché Blackstock, an emergency medicine physician in the city and the founder of Advancing Health Equity, an organization focused on bias in health care, said NY should reconsider the 3% threshold: “We need to prioritize schools, and we need to think about innovative and safe ways to keep as many schools open as possible,” she said, pointing to research showing that schools were not “key drivers” of infections.

Dr. Blackstock said her own children are back in city classrooms and that their experience has been excellent. Even Michael Mulgrew, the president of the United Federation of Teachers, which used the virus to try and squeeze more labor concessions from the city, admitted to the NYT that schools have proven surprisingly safe.

With all that in mind, maybe it is time to rethink that 3% threshold.