Wisdom From Grandpa: Buy Gold

Wisdom From Grandpa: Buy Gold

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/24/2020 – 11:30

Via SchiffGold.com,

The mainstream generally treats the gold standard as a bygone relic of a primitive past – something grandpa might remember fondly along with 5 cent eggs and walking to school uphill both ways.

But in this modern era of wild monetary policy and unprecedented money printing, even some in the mainstream are starting to think grampa may have been a little wiser than we thought.

recent article in The Economist extolled the virtues of the gold standard and advises “make a strategic allocation to gold.”

“It’s the counterweight to paper money which is continuing to lose credibility as a store of value.”

Chirag Mehta tells the story of the gold standard through the eyes of his 82-year-old grandfather who points out the absurdity of the Federal Reserve printing trillions of dollars.

“They don’t really have the money, though, do they?” And so they are just going to print it, aren’t they? Out of nothing? Is there any real backing, like Gold in earlier days?”

“No,” Mehta answers.

But that’s not right, is it?”

Grandpa went on to insist that the Fed is “making a grave mistake” with its loose monetary policy and 24-7 dollar-printing, adding that “it is not going to work as it would not lead to real economic growth.”

This is exactly what Peter Schiff said in a recent podcast. Printing dollars and pumping money into the economy is nothing more than pumping in inflation. It’s not like the government is putting real products into the economy. It’s not creating wealth. It’s not adding resources. It’s not creating anything of value.

Well, if you just increase the supply of money, it doesn’t do anything to change the supply of goods and services. So now, when you divvy those goods and services up, you just have to assign a higher price to all of those goods and services so that the market clears. But nothing of real value is actually added.

Grandpa goes on to explain the gold standard – that money used to be backed by physical metal. That put some restraint on the amount of currency the government could issue. Fractional reserve banking tore down some of those restraints, but today we have a pure fiat system. Currency has no intrinsic value. It’s really just a confidence game.

If too much money is created the public will lose confidence in its purchasing power and the perceived value of the money can collapse. Remember, fiat money has no intrinsic value; it only has perceived value. This is why most of the fiat currencies met with disaster if you look back in history.”

Today, the Federal Reserve is testing whether it can grow its “balance sheet tree” to the sky. This will lead to a devaluation of the dollar, grandpa says.

Our Government calls this ‘inflation,’ when in reality it’s devaluation. This devaluation will eventually lead to a loss of faith in the dollar and people will no more want to hold the fiat currency. As a result, people will want to convert their cash/wealth to something that they believe in, something that can protect their wealth with, something that has intrinsic value and that has proved its worth over decades.”

Gold.

This is a mainstream article, so don’t expect to find a call to a return to a gold standard. But for something published by The Economist, the conclusion is still pretty radical. Gold should be viewed as a “monetary asset,” not a commodity.

Given the current economic backdrop, where governments are struggling with problems like rising deficits and unsustainable debts, it is indeed logical for gold prices to increase in value. With policymakers continuously debasing currencies, gold will be viewed as ‘the real liquid store of value’ investment, lending some calm to the chaos.

Gold will likely continue increasing in value because it is the only currency with a highly constrained supply.

When a central bank increases their money supply, the price of other currencies adjusts upwards. This is true for all currencies including gold. Therefore, the one thing against which global currencies are truly perishing is the ultimate form of real monetary asset i.e. Gold.”

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Z4E5w3 Tyler Durden

National Guard Mobilized In D.C. To Protect Monuments, Fox Reports

National Guard Mobilized In D.C. To Protect Monuments, Fox Reports

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/24/2020 – 11:14

As tensions continue to rise between the civilized world and anarchic (mostly white) GenZ’ers hell-bent on destroying every monument of the past, Fox News’ Lucas Tomlinson reports that, according to a senior US defense official, hundreds of D.C. National Guard troops have been mobilized to protect historic monuments.

As Tomlinson reports, Secretary of the Interior, David Bernhardt, says that the use of the unarmed soldiers were requested earlier in the week.

How long before Mayor Bowser tweets her disapproval at any attempt to stop the violence and anarchy?

Isn’t this exactly what President Trump tweeted about and was flagged by Jack and his minions for?

Will the outrage mob unleash hashtag hell for this fascist move to stop the violence?

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Latest State-Level Coronavirus Tracker Shows Alarming Trend Reversal

Latest State-Level Coronavirus Tracker Shows Alarming Trend Reversal

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/24/2020 – 11:06

Whether one believes the official virus data or is willing to dismiss it as a “plandemic”, is irrelevant for two reasons: i) markets still respond to every incremental headline, fully aware that it will shape fiscal and monetary policy especially with various Fed speakers warning yesterday that a second wave would lead to even more Fed intervention, and ii) the global coronavirus pandemic stopped being about epidemiology long ago and has since become a political weapon to be used at will by those with a certain agenda. It’s also why various states will be eager to use whatever data is published to pursue their political intentions, which according to many involve a new round of shutdowns some time in the late summer and in any case, ahead of the elections to encourage another economic meltdown and further crippling Trump’s re-election changes despite the administration’s solemn vows that a “second wave” shut down is not coming.

So what does the data show?

According to the latest Goldman state-level coronavirus tracker, the prevalence of coronavirus symptoms is rising, with the share of patients seeking care with symptoms of Covid-like illness at 3.5%, up 0.4% from 2 weeks ago. Daily confirmed new cases have risen steadily over the past several days to 86 per million, ending a 2-month decline. A big part of this is due to increased testing: indeed, the volume of daily coronavirus tests has risen 23% over the last two weeks, while the positive test rate has risen by 1.3pp to 6.2%. On the flipside, fatalities have declined over the last two weeks (-12% to 1.9 per million), although fatalities lag new cases by multiple weeks.

As a reminder, the federal government recommends states meet four criteria to proceed with reopening:

  1. symptoms should be declining,
  2. new cases should be declining,
  3. the positive test rate should be below 10%,
  4. at least 30% of ICU capacity should be available.

Currently Arizona and South Carolina—accounting for 4% of the US population—meet none of the four criteria; 8 states including Texas and Florida meet only 1 criterion; 14 meet 2; 12 meet 3; and only 14 states meet all 4 criteria.

As Goldman notes next, while states make their own decisions about reopening, a decline in hospital capacity below 20% could pressure states to consider slowing or reversing reopening. In this context, according to the latest CDC data, Alabama and Maryland currently have 23% of ICU beds available (with Covid patients accounting for 7% and 13% of occupancy respectively), and Arizona has 25% available (with Covid patients accounting for 11%).

Looking at the average US state, Goldman concludes that it currently meets 2 of the 4 federal gating criteria, with the most notable recent development being that the prevalence of Covid-like illness symptoms is declining in states representing 20% of the population, compared to close to 50% a week ago. New cases are declining in states representing only 30% of the population, also worse than last week. More encouragingly, the vast majority of states have a positive coronavirus test rate below 10%, and states covering 80% of the population have available ICU capacity above 30%

The key questions: is the above trend reversal sufficient to gut the recovery narrative and force states to resume hated shutdowns in the coming weeks? And if so, how will the Trump administration react and will the population even follow any new lockdown measures? 

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Media Executive Warns Big Tech Is Secretively Seizing “All The Power” Over Information

Media Executive Warns Big Tech Is Secretively Seizing “All The Power” Over Information

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/24/2020 – 10:55

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Newspaper executive Peter Wright has slammed big tech for secretively developing and changing algorithms for news distribution without giving the industry any indication whatsoever of what they are doing.

Wright of DMG Media, which is the parent company of The Daily Mail, was testifying before the House of Lords Communications and Digital Committee Tuesday.

He accused companies like Google and Facebook of ‘monopoly behaviour’ as they seek to seize ‘all the power’ in online news and advertising.

Wright claims that the Mail’s online daily traffic from Google searches has been diminished by 50 per cent in just one year after the company changed the algorithm for news content in 2019.

“Google and Facebook in our view are market dominant companies and they behave in the way that market dominant companies do,” Wright stated, noting that it is significantly impacting journalism.

“Google and Facebook both distribute our content via algorithm. Those algorithms are what is known in the digital world as a ‘black box’ – they are secret, you have no idea how they work. But we can see and measure the results,” Wright said.

Wright also implied that the Mail’s pro Brexit stance led to it being targeted by big tech for diminished online distribution.

He noted that last June “over the space of three days, our search visibility, which is the measure of how often your content is appearing against a basket of search terms, dropped by 50 per cent, and it was particularly marked against some particular terms. One of them for instance was ‘Brexit’.”

Wright noted that after his group protested, normality eventually returned.

“But this is monopoly behaviour. You can’t do this if you’re in a business relationship with someone where there’s any semblance of equality of power,” he urged.

Wright noted that Google and Facebook are not regulated and so they are getting away with a secretive takeover of content.

“As far as the commercial relationship between news publishers and the platforms is concerned, it’s a business relationship between two partners in which one partner has all the power,” Wright declared.

He described Google as “completely dominant” in search and digital marketing, the two main avenues for distributing news content, and Facebook (which also owns instagram) as “dominant in social media”, pointing out that they make “more money out of advertising than our newspapers do.”

Despite the vast power that these companies have in such areas, Wright noted that their terms of service are completely “opaque”.

Even the contracts that we sign to use their services are often presented to us on a take-it-or-leave-it basis. So what we’re asking for here is for regulation, and the CMA (Competition and Markets Authority) are about to report on a massive piece of work they’ve been doing, to address the complete imbalance in the business relationship,” Wright asserted.

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WTI Tumbles Below $39 On Crude Build, Rebound In Production

WTI Tumbles Below $39 On Crude Build, Rebound In Production

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/24/2020 – 10:35

WTI prices fell back below $40 this morning following a surprisingly large crude build reported by API overnight., as fears of a second-wave of COVID-19 (and perhaps lockdowns) stymie hopes for a rebound in demand amid record inventories.

While the “focus lies on the inventory data,” there’s also persistent anxiety around the growth of the pandemic, said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro.

“Hopes for a rise in demand are counterbalanced by fears regarding new Covid-19 spread.”

As Bloomberg notes, anxiety over trade also weighed on the market, with the U.S. mulling new tariffs on $3.1 billion of exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K., adding to an arsenal of measures against the European Union that could spiral into a wider transatlantic trade fight later this summer.

API

  • Crude +1.749mm (+1.5mm exp, Platts -100k exp)

  • Cushing -325k

  • Gasoline -2.605mm (-1.9mm exp)

  • Distillates -3.856mm (+100k exp)

DOE

  • Crude +1.44mm (+1.5mm exp, Platts -100k exp, BBG WHIS -595k exp)

  • Cushing -991k

  • Gasoline -1.673mm (-1.9mm exp)

  • Distillates +249k (+100k exp)

Official EIA data confirmed API’s reported build in crude stocks last week, and the smallest draw at Cushing since May. The build in distillates also pours cold water in any pick up in jet fuel or diesel (trucking) demand.

Source: Bloomberg

Gasoline demand is also closely-watched as an indicator of the speed of recovery in the economy, and jet-fuel demand remains low…

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production tumbled the prior week due to storm Cristobal shut-ins, and that drop was erased last week, back up to 11.0mm b/d…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI briefly traded back above $40 overnight but was hovering around $39.50 ahead of the DOE print and tumbled to the lows of the day after the data…

There are also signs that some funds could be pulling out. Trend-following funds that follow technical signals are nearing levels where they would reverse their current bullish positions, according to Keith Wildie, senior commodities broker at R.J. O’Brien.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Energy Analyst Vince Piazza notes that the risk of crude inventories exceeding storage capacity remains a concern, and we think commodity markets don’t fully appreciate the risk of a second wave of Covid-19 infections depressing demand.

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Addressing Common Objections to Migration Rights

Free to Move—Final Cover

In previous posts based on my new book Free to Move: Foot Voting, Migration, and Political Freedom, I explained what the book is about and why I wrote it,described the advantages of foot voting over ballot box voting, and took a closer look at the three major types of foot voting, highlighting their various advantages.

In this one, I preview some of the arguments made in Chapters 5 and 6 of the book, which address a variety of justifications for excluding migrants.  I divide those theories into two broad categories: claims that natives have a general right to exclude migrants based on a right to self-determination, and claims that there is a right to exclude in order to forestall specific harmful consequences of migration. Today, such arguments are usually advanced to justify restricting international migration. But, as well shall see, most can also be used to justify restricting internal migration, as well.

I. Does Group or Individual Self-Determination Give Natives a Right to Exclude Migrants?

A standard objection to foot voting rights is that the existing population within a jurisdiction has a right of self-determination that entitles it to keep out migrants. The political freedom of migrants, it is said, must be restricted to protect that of natives.

Perhaps the most common  justification for a power to restrict immigration is based on the rights of distinct ethnic, racial, or cultural groups to self-determination. Thus, France is the rightful property of the French, Germany of Germans, and so on.

Arguments for restrictions on migration based on group membership founder on the flaws inherent in claims that there is a right to live in a polity that privileges a particular culture or ethnic group. Such a right would imply the power to coerce even currently existing residents to keep them from changing their cultural practices.

After all, a culture can be transformed through internal change no less than through immigration. Older generations often complain about the cultural changes created by the choices of the young. Yet few argue that their elders have a right to use force to prevent it, much less to the point of expelling anyone who fails to conform.

Another problem with the group self-determination argument is trying to determine which group has the “right” to control which territory. Perhaps such rights are created when an group that has acquired previously unoccupied territory, and then developed it, without forcibly displacing anyone else But, if so, virtually no actual government can claim such a right, as nearly all are the products of repeated conquest or coercion, and most rule territories occupied by multiple cultural or ethnic groups, not just one.

Ethnic and cultural group-based claims for a right to exclude are particularly problematic for those committed to the principle of non-discrimination on the basis of race and ethnicity. The standard defense of racial and ethnic non-discrimination is that race and ethnicity are morally irrelevant characteristics that people have no control over. Whether a person is black, Asian, white, or Hispanic says nothing about her moral worth, or what rights she should have. Most liberal democrats recoil at the idea that we should restrict people’s freedom because they chose the wrong parents.

What is true of race and ethnicity is also true of place of birth. Whether a person was born in the United States, Mexico, or China is also a morally arbitrary characteristic that she has no control over, and which should not determine how much freedom she is entitled to. To adapt a famous quote from Martin Luther King, Jr., place of birth is no more indicative of  “the content of your character” than race of birth.

In the book, I also address a number of other, less prominent group-based justifications for exclusion. These include the idea that exclusion is essential to democratic self-determination regardless of whether the group in question has a distinct culture, that rights to exclude are inherent in the very nature of state sovereignty, and that exclusion is needed to enable existing residents to avoid “unwanted obligations.”

In addition to group rights claims for states’ authority to exclude migrants, there are also individual rights theories, which analogize the nation-state to a private house or club. If a homeowner has the right to bar outsiders from her property, the same reasoning gives a national government the power to exclude migrants.

Despite its widespread use, the house analogy has severe flaws. It appeals to property rights. But it actually ends up undermining private property. Far from protecting property rights, immigration restrictions actually abrogate the rights of property owners who want to rent their property to migrants, associate with them, or employ them on their land.

Perhaps, however, the government is a kind of super-owner that has the right to supersede the decisions of private owners whenever it passes a law that does so. With this modification, the house analogy could indeed potentially justify almost any immigration restrictions a government might choose to set up. But it can also justify a variety of repressive government policies that target natives, as well.

If a state has the same powers over land as a homeowner has over her house, then the state has broad power to suppress speech and religion the rulers disapprove of. A homeowner has every right to mandate that only Muslim prayer will be permitted in his house, or that  only left-wing political speech be tolerated within its walls.

We might potentially forestall some of the illiberal implications of the house analogy by establishing constitutional rights against them. But if the analogy is valid, such guarantees are not morally required. They can be granted or withheld at the discretion of the government.

The club analogy has the same implications as the house version. Private clubs can and do restrict membership on the basis of speech, religion, and other similar criteria. A Republican club can exclude Democrats, a Muslim club can exclude Christians and Jews, and so on.

II. Consequentialist Justifications for Exclusion

Many advocates of migration restrictions claim not that there is a general right to exclude migrants for any reasons, but instead that exclusion is often justified by the need to avoid specific negative consequences of migration. These include such dangers as overburdening the welfare state, increased crime and terrorism, and undermining of a nation’s political institutions by new citizens who vote for harmful policies. The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the danger that migrants might spread deadly diseases. The book addresses a wide range of concerns like this. In addition to those already mentioned, they includ the danger of spreading harmful cultural values, the possibility that migration will damage the environment, and the risk that immigrants will undermine “social trust” and damage receiving nations’ political institutions.

Here, I briefly summarize my three-stage approach for addressing such issues. First, many of the standard objections to free migration are significantly overblown. If there is little or no problem to begin with, we should not be willing to make any significant sacrifices to “solve” it.

Second, where migration creates genuine problems, it is often possible to deal with the issue by means of “keyhole solutions” that minimize the risk without barring migrants. Instead of applying a meat cleaver that undermines political freedom and inflicts great sacrifices on potential migrants, it is better to apply a scalpel.

Finally, where  keyhole solutions are inadequate, policymakers should  consider tapping the vast wealth created by expanded migration to mitigate negative side-effects that cannot be addressed in other ways.

I do not claim this approach can solve all conceivable problems potentially caused by foot voting. There are likely to be extreme cases where it fails. But the framework can be effectively applied to a wide range of issues often seen as strong justifications for imposing migration restrictions.

Consider, for example, claims that immigration will overburden the welfare state. Evidence from both the US and Europe indicates that this problem is overblown, as jurisdictions with more immigrants do not have higher per capita welfare spending than those with fewer, and the vast majority of immigrants contribute more to the public fisc than they take out. But to the extent this is a problem, there are a variety of keyhole solutions, most notably restricting immigrants’ eligibility for various welfare state benefits, as many nations – including the US—already do. Finally, if keyhole mechanisms prove insufficient, we have the option of taxing some of the vast new wealth created by immigration and using it to defray any additional welfare expenses.

The three-step framework also works for claims that migration needs to be restricted in order to contain the spread of diseases, such as the ongoing coronavirus pandemic – the ostensible justification for Donald Trump’s recently extended near-total suspension of entry into the United States by migrants seeking permanent residency. This issue is not in the book, which was written before the pandemic began. But  the approach I set out can handle it, nonetheless.

Here, there is a genuine problem, as the coronavirus really is an unusually dangerous public health threat. But it is not  clear that travel restrictions can do much to slow its spread, especially when there is already extensive “community spread” in the destination country. Pandemics such as the “Black Death” devastated the world in even in eras when the vast majority of people were peasants or serfs who rarely left the villages where they were born.

There is also keyhole alternative to excluding migrants: impose a 14 day quarantine on entrants, as has been done by South Korea, which has done a far better job of constraining Covid 19 than the US. By that means, migrants can be isolated until it is clear they do not have the virus or are no longer contagio aus.

A 14-day quarantine may be a deal-breaker for tourists or business travelers. But, for most migrants, it is a small price to pay for the opportunity to live in a society that offers greater freedom and opportunity. And unlike migration restrictions, the combination of free migration and the quarantine keyhole solution does not create a large population of undocumented migrants, who in turn have strong incentives to avoid testing for Covid, thereby facilitating its spread. In the long run, the wealth created by migration also facilitates improvements in public health, including increased medical innovation to combat diseases.

While most standard arguments for barring migration are usually used only against international migrants, they apply just as readily to internal foot voting. If the US is a analogous to a private club and can therefore bar migrants from Cuba or Mexico, then the same analogy can justify Texas in barring Californians. If the dominant ethnic group of France can bar foreigners with different cultures, then the majority ethnic group of a given US state should be able to exclude people from other parts of the United States who have different cultural and ethnic backgrounds.  And if the US government can bar foreigners lest they overburden our welfare state, then wealthier states should be able to bar internal migrants from poorer ones.

Those unwilling to bite such bullets in the domestic context should carefully consider whether international migration is really so different. Indeed, historically these kinds of arguments were used to justify state-government restrictions on the entry of African-Americans, “paupers,” and others.

In Chapter 5 of Free to Move, I also address arguments that restrictions on migration are justified in order to protect the rights and interests of the citizens of would-be migrants countries of origin. These include claims that migrants have a duty to “stay home and fix their own countries,” arguments that governments should have the power to prevent “brain drain,” and claims that potential migrants must work for the betterment of their native lands so that the latter can recoup investments made in their upbringing and education. I criticize such theories on both moral and pragmatic grounds. Like arguments for excluding immigrants, these rationales for barring emigration readily justify restrictions on internal emigration as well as the international kind. If Cubans have a duty to stay home and fix Cuba, perhaps Californians have a similar obligation to fix California, instead of moving to Texas.

I do not claim migration rights are absolute. A sufficiently great evil that can only be prevented by such restrictions might justify imposing them, just as similar tragic situations might justify violating other important human rights. But the immense value of foot voting should at least create a strong presumption against restriction. The right to vote with your feet cannot be absolute. But it should not be lightly set aside.

 

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Trump Worries That More Coronavirus Testing Makes America Look Bad

trump-testing-use-sipaphotosten863033

The single biggest failure of the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus was the delayed rollout of testing, which left both policy makers and the public flying blind for months on end, unable to gauge the extent of the virus’s spread, and thus flailing in response. Testing provides clarity, evidence, and critical information without which an effective response cannot be devised. 

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention repeatedly botched the development and delivery test kits, and the Food and Drug Administration wasted precious early weeks before approving private companies to deploy their own tests, as other countries had already done successfully, and as former Trump administration health officials had proposed early on. 

This set of failures can be blamed at least in part on bureaucratic inertia and agency culture, in particular on the prevailing belief inside the U.S. health apparatus that the federal government should serve as a centralized clearinghouse for testing. The desire to serve as a single point of control meant that federal health agencies ended up being a single point of failure.

That failure that had predictably catastrophic results, for it meant that U.S. officials had limited visibility about the spread and nature of the disease. If more testing capacity had been deployed earlier, government officials—as well as private companies and individuals—would have been better equipped to respond to the virus. Indeed, testing continues to be an area where the U.S. has sometimes fallen short; although nationwide testing capacity has risen to about 500,000 per day, which many experts consider an important benchmark, some states are still struggling with their testing regimes. 

Yet in President Donald Trump’s telling, more testing is actually a problem. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal last week, Trump said he “personally think[s] testing is overrated” and that, because more testing reveals more confirmed cases, “in many ways, it makes us look bad.” Trump repeated a version of this opinion at a campaign rally over the weekend, saying, “When you do testing to that extent, you’re going to find more people, you’re going to find more cases. So I said to my people, ‘Slow the testing down, please.'” 

This comment understandably raised questions about whether Trump had, in fact, intentionally slowed down testing in order to preserve the appearance of less viral spread.

Trump’s flacks argued that he was merely joking. “It was a comment that he made in jest,” said White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany on Monday. Trump, however, quickly insisted otherwise. When reporters asked him yesterday whether the remark was meant as a joke, he said, “I don’t kid. Let me just tell you. Let me make it clear,” adding once again that more testing means finding more cases. 

(As is often the case with Trump, it’s not clear whether his words have resulted in any actions, or whether they were merely an empty threat. Talking Points Memo reports that the administration is moving to end federal support for some testing sites. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, meanwhile, has told Congress that testing has not slowed down, and in fact is on track to increase. Meanwhile, total case numbers are up across the country, but deaths, while still high, are trending downward on a daily basis.)

It is true that all else being equal, a much broader testing regime will mean finding and confirming more cases. And some reports of rising cases have mistakenly been based on the deployment of more widespread testing. It is probable, however, that the recent rise in confirmed cases is not solely a result of increased testing, but a result of increased viral spread and an outbreak that remains uncontrolled, as evidenced by the rising positive test rate in states like Arizona and Florida. 

But these nuances are mostly irrelevant in this instance since Trump’s personal view appears to be altogether simpler—and more troubling. 

Trump’s remarks over the last week make clear that he sees increased testing negatively simply because it results in a higher number of confirmed cases, which makes the country look bad. Nor is this a new view for Trump; in March, he pushed to keep the passengers of a cruise ship where the virus had broken out quarantined because allowing them to disembark would raise the country’s official infection count. “I like the numbers being where they are,” he said

What Trump has repeatedly communicated is that he dislikes testing precisely because it makes clear the scope of the problem; his frustration is with the evidence and information testing provides. 

He appears to be irritated by the idea of object permanence, the notion that something that can’t be seen at the moment yet still continues to exist. But just as cancer does not go away if you do not test for it, and the world does not disappear if you close your eyes, slowing the pace of testing does not actually reduce the spread of the disease, even if official confirmation numbers do not go as high. 

Refusing to look at the full extent of a problem does not make the problem go away. Instead, it limits our ability to see its spread and understand its consequences. That ability was already dangerously crippled by a series of bureaucratic failures, which have largely (though not entirely) been corrected. What is still worrying is that the president is saying he would rather we all be flying blind.

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The New York Times’s Inconsistent Standards Drove Slate Star Codex To Self-Cancel

Freedom_Of_Speech_(256854761)

Scott Alexander is the pseudonymous proprietor of Slate Star Codex, a science and history blog well-liked by many libertarians and neoliberals. On Monday, he took the drastic step of deleting the blog after a New York Times reporter threatened to reveal his name in a forthcoming article.

“I’m not sure what happens next,” wrote Alexander in his last and currently only blog post. “In my ideal world, the New York Times realizes they screwed up, promises not to use my real name in the article, and promises to rethink their strategy of doxxing random bloggers for clicks.”

In an interview with Reason, Alexander explained he had recently learned that a New York Times tech reporter was working on a story about Slate Star Codex. The reporter had contacted several of Alexander’s friends, as well as a former girlfriend. Eventually, the Times reached out to Alexander, who agreed to speak about his blog off the record. He also asked the reporter not to divulge his real name in the article, but this request was rejected.

“We had a discussion about why I wanted my real name out of the story, where I said most of the same things I said in the public post,” Alexander tells Reason. “He seemed understanding but said his editor absolutely prohibited him from writing it without my name, and he thought the story was important enough that he didn’t want to drop it.”

The Times declined to comment to Reason, though a spokesperson stressed that “when we report on newsworthy or influential figures, our goal is always to give readers all the accurate and relevant information we can.”

This is an unfortunate series of events. Alexander has penned a lot of really great pieces on a wide range of subjects: on Marxism’s failings as a science, on the English settlement of the Americas, and on bureaucratic barriers to scientific research, to name just a few. (I would link to them here, but they’ve all disappeared for the moment.) Indeed, according to several of the people the Times had interviewed, the story was probably going to be a fairly positive one that celebrated Alexander’s prescience on some COVID-19 related topics. We don’t know for sure since the article isn’t available yet. Alexander is hoping that his deletion of the blog will cause the Times reporter to decline to publish, or to publish without revealing Alexander’s real name to the world—a practice that has come to be called “doxxing,” at least when done by internet trolls.

Of course, if publishing information about a person without their permission is always “doxxing,” then the craft of journalism is one nonstop doxxing party. News stories at The New York Times, Reason, and virtually every other publication of some importance frequently contain details that the subjects themselves would have preferred to be omitted. It can hardly be called “doxxing” to reveal that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) is a millionaire who owns three homes, for example.

Doxxing, then, should probably be defined in a more limited way—perhaps as the act of revealing private or personal information about a private or semi-private subject, in a situation where it isn’t warranted. But under this definition, it’s still hard to see what was about to happen to Alexander as anything other than doxxing.

To underscore how important his anonymity is to him, Alexander titled his farewell post, “NYT Is Threatening My Safety By Revealing My Real Name, So I Am Deleting The Blog.” Alexander’s reasons for wanting to remain anonymous are twofold: For one, as a person who has staked out well-founded but occasionally controversial positions on hot-button issues—race and IQ science for instance—and courted a passionate base of fans and critics, he has previously received death threats. He does not wish to make it any easier for people to find him.

While I’m largely sympathetic to Alexander’s plight, I think it’s a bit of an over-dramatization for him to assert that his safety would be seriously undermined by his unmasking. People who are prominent on the internet receive occasional death threats: It’s upsetting when it happens, and no one deserves it, but the threats are almost never carried out. By making the matter primarily one of safety, Alexander is essentially mimicking progressive activists who treat discomfort and disagreement as a kind of physical harm. Since I routinely criticize them for this, I would be remiss if I didn’t ding Alexander on similar grounds.

But Alexander’s other objection to having his name published is quite reasonable: He’s a psychiatrist, and in order for him to do his work it’s important for his patients not to know all that much about him personally, or about his opinions. And given the cultural moment we are currently living through—involving widespread cancellations or even firings of anyone deemed guilty of problematic or offensive behavior, no matter how trivial, long ago, or ridiculous—Alexander’s concern that his employer might decide someone with a national commentary presence is more trouble than they are worth is understandable.

These objections might not be strong enough to derail a critical news story that hinged on Alexander’s identity, or one in which the burden of leaving him unnamed was outweighed by some other factor. If Alexander did something that was notable or significant—other than just being a guy with a good blog—a reporter would have to consider naming him. But, by all accounts, the Times story was a puff piece about how great Slate Star Codex was. If that’s true, it seems fairly inadvisable to move forward with it despite the subject’s vehement objection.

In fact, the Times has made such accommodations in the past. A recent Times profile of the socialist podcasters Chapo Trap House identified one of the members using only his pseudonym, Virgil Texas. (The piece gave one of the podcaster’s girlfriends a pseudonym as well.) Neither Texas nor Alexander are truly anonymous: Amateur internet sleuths can uncover their identities fairly quickly. Alexander concedes this point but thinks there’s a difference between being relatively (though not completely) anonymous and being named in a New York Times piece. In any case, the fact that the real name was already out there on the internet apparently did not deter the Times from protecting Texas.

Some will no doubt describe this double standard as an example of political bias, but it’s probably better described as garden-variety sloppiness. It seems more likely that the Times does not have consistent standards here, and editors alternate between fostering over-reliance on anonymous sources and forbidding the practice.

A 2017 Times piece from the standards editor notes that many stories “present tough decisions—reporting about children, for instance, or people worried about their safety, or others who may be naive about the impact publicity could have on them” and “since no set of guidelines can cover every situation, the best we can do is to try to balance those questions of fairness and privacy with our chief goal: to tell readers what we know.” If that’s the policy—and if the piece doesn’t contain a bombshell that necessitates the use of his name—it’s hard to understand why Virgil Texas’s request for anonymity is granted but Scott Alexander’s is refused.

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Outsider Candidates and Oddballs Shine in Tuesday Primaries

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Kentucky, New York, and Virginia held primary elections yesterday. Overall, it was a good day for weirdos, newcomers, and idealists that lean outside Washington establishment lines.

  • Kentucky Republican voters handed a hefty win to libertarian-leaning Rep. Thomas Massie, despite calls from President Donald Trump to vote him out. “By early evening, Massie had wracked up 88 percent of the unofficial vote against Todd McMurtry, a lawyer who represented Covington Catholic student Nick Sandmann in his lawsuit against media outlets,” Reason‘s Christian Britschgi noted last night. Official results for Kentucky aren’t slated to be released until June 30, due to the high number of absentee ballots being cast.
  • In New York’s 14th Congressional District, which represents parts of Queens and the Bronx, socialist-leaning Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez beat three Democratic primary challengers, including the more moderate centrist CNBC anchor Michelle Caruso-Cabrera. The area’s ample absentee ballots mean final results won’t be known for days, but Ocasio-Cortez commands 72.6 percent of the vote and Caruso-Cabrera just 19.4 percent with 100 percent of in-person voter precincts reporting.
  • In New York’s 16th Congressional District, which represents part of the Bronx along with wealthy suburban areas in Westchester County, incumbent Democrat and longtime politician Eliot Engel is losing to more progressive newcomer Jamaal Bowman. With 92 percent of precincts reporting, Bowman had 60.9 percent of the vote and Engel just 35.6 percent.
  • Just north of New York City, in the state’s 17th Congressional District, Democratic candidate Mondaire Joneswhom The New York Times describes as “a favorite of the activist left”is whooping the deep-pocketed former federal prosecutor Adam Schleifer (who spent $4 million of his own cash on his campaign), with 44.8 percent of the vote to Schleifer’s 20.9 percent (with 96 percent of precincts reporting). Jones is also beating former Obama administration official Evelyn Farkas and state Senator David Carlucci.
  • In the 15th Congressional District, state Assemblyman Michael Blakewho was endorsed by the likes of black leaders such as Rev. Jesse Jackson and U.S. Rep. James Clyburn (D–S.C.)is losing to New York City Councilmember Ritchie Torres, a gay black Latino man who was arrested in April for protesting federal housing funding cuts. Torres is also beating out fellow city councilmember and former state Senator Rubén Díaz Sr., a Pentecostal minister and conservative-leaning Democrat.
  • In the 12th Congressional District, which represents parts of Manhattan and Brooklyn, veteran Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney, age 74, is just barely beating 36-year-old challenger Suraj Patel, with Maloney currently garnering 41.5 percent and Patel 40 percent.

“Even though Tuesday night ended without final calls in many of the biggest primaries, the results clearly showed some incumbents in serious trouble and major trends shaking both parties right now,” writes Politico‘s Steven Shepard.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez looks set to get some new progressive backup in New York’s congressional delegation next year. President Donald Trump’s iron-fisted grip over the Republican Party appears to be slipping. And Senate hopefuls Charles Booker and Amy McGrath are locked in a tight battle for that Kentucky Senate nomination that belies McGrath’s huge cash advantage and support from Washington powerbrokers. […]

When The Associated Press ended its vote count late Tuesday night, McGrath — the national party-endorsed candidate and fundraising juggernaut who’s raised more than $40 million so far — had a 9-point lead over Booker with about 58,000 votes reported.

But McGrath’s lead is far from secure. The exact number of votes left to count isn’t clear, but the 58,000 tallied in early returns doesn’t include anything from the state’s two largest and most Democratic counties

Tuesday also saw runoff elections in several states, including North Carolina, where “Trump’s pick to succeed former Rep. Mark Meadows in a solidly Republican House district in Western North Carolina, Lynda Bennett, fell flat on Tuesday,” notes Shepard.

Bennett lost to 24-year-old Madison Cawthorn, who received nearly two-thirds of the vote.


QUICK HITS

  • Last night in D.C.:

  • A “Black House Autonomous Zone” explainer.
  • A protester is suing cops in Los Angeles:

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The New York Times’s Inconsistent Standards Drove Slate Star Codex To Self-Cancel

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Scott Alexander is the pseudonymous proprietor of Slate Star Codex, a science and history blog well-liked by many libertarians and neoliberals. On Monday, he took the drastic step of deleting the blog after a New York Times reporter threatened to reveal his name in a forthcoming article.

“I’m not sure what happens next,” wrote Alexander in his last and currently only blog post. “In my ideal world, the New York Times realizes they screwed up, promises not to use my real name in the article, and promises to rethink their strategy of doxxing random bloggers for clicks.”

In an interview with Reason, Alexander explained he had recently learned that a New York Times tech reporter was working on a story about Slate Star Codex. The reporter had contacted several of Alexander’s friends, as well as a former girlfriend. Eventually, the Times reached out to Alexander, who agreed to speak about his blog off the record. He also asked the reporter not to divulge his real name in the article, but this request was rejected.

“We had a discussion about why I wanted my real name out of the story, where I said most of the same things I said in the public post,” Alexander tells Reason. “He seemed understanding but said his editor absolutely prohibited him from writing it without my name, and he thought the story was important enough that he didn’t want to drop it.”

The Times declined to comment to Reason, though a spokesperson stressed that “when we report on newsworthy or influential figures, our goal is always to give readers all the accurate and relevant information we can.”

This is an unfortunate series of events. Alexander has penned a lot of really great pieces on a wide range of subjects: on Marxism’s failings as a science, on the English settlement of the Americas, and on bureaucratic barriers to scientific research, to name just a few. (I would link to them here, but they’ve all disappeared for the moment.) Indeed, according to several of the people the Times had interviewed, the story was probably going to be a fairly positive one that celebrated Alexander’s prescience on some COVID-19 related topics. We don’t know for sure since the article isn’t available yet. Alexander is hoping that his deletion of the blog will cause the Times reporter to decline to publish, or to publish without revealing Alexander’s real name to the world—a practice that has come to be called “doxxing,” at least when done by internet trolls.

Of course, if publishing information about a person without their permission is always “doxxing,” then the craft of journalism is one nonstop doxxing party. News stories at The New York Times, Reason, and virtually every other publication of some importance frequently contain details that the subjects themselves would have preferred to be omitted. It can hardly be called “doxxing” to reveal that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) is a millionaire who owns three homes, for example.

Doxxing, then, should probably be defined in a more limited way—perhaps as the act of revealing private or personal information about a private or semi-private subject, in a situation where it isn’t warranted. But under this definition, it’s still hard to see what was about to happen to Alexander as anything other than doxxing.

To underscore how important his anonymity is to him, Alexander titled his farewell post, “NYT Is Threatening My Safety By Revealing My Real Name, So I Am Deleting The Blog.” Alexander’s reasons for wanting to remain anonymous are twofold: For one, as a person who has staked out well-founded but occasionally controversial positions on hot-button issues—race and IQ science for instance—and courted a passionate base of fans and critics, he has previously received death threats. He does not wish to make it any easier for people to find him.

While I’m largely sympathetic to Alexander’s plight, I think it’s a bit of an over-dramatization for him to assert that his safety would be seriously undermined by his unmasking. People who are prominent on the internet receive occasional death threats: It’s upsetting when it happens, and no one deserves it, but the threats are almost never carried out. By making the matter primarily one of safety, Alexander is essentially mimicking progressive activists who treat discomfort and disagreement as a kind of physical harm. Since I routinely criticize them for this, I would be remiss if I didn’t ding Alexander on similar grounds.

But Alexander’s other objection to having his name published is quite reasonable: He’s a psychiatrist, and in order for him to do his work it’s important for his patients not to know all that much about him personally, or about his opinions. And given the cultural moment we are currently living through—involving widespread cancellations or even firings of anyone deemed guilty of problematic or offensive behavior, no matter how trivial, long ago, or ridiculous—Alexander’s concern that his employer might decide someone with a national commentary presence is more trouble than they are worth is understandable.

These objections might not be strong enough to derail a critical news story that hinged on Alexander’s identity, or one in which the burden of leaving him unnamed was outweighed by some other factor. If Alexander did something that was notable or significant—other than just being a guy with a good blog—a reporter would have to consider naming him. But, by all accounts, the Times story was a puff piece about how great Slate Star Codex was. If that’s true, it seems fairly inadvisable to move forward with it despite the subject’s vehement objection.

In fact, the Times has made such accommodations in the past. A recent Times profile of the socialist podcasters Chapo Trap House identified one of the members using only his pseudonym, Virgil Texas. (The piece gave one of the podcaster’s girlfriends a pseudonym as well.) Neither Texas nor Alexander are truly anonymous: Amateur internet sleuths can uncover their identities fairly quickly. Alexander concedes this point but thinks there’s a difference between being relatively (though not completely) anonymous and being named in a New York Times piece. In any case, the fact that the real name was already out there on the internet apparently did not deter the Times from protecting Texas.

Some will no doubt describe this double standard as an example of political bias, but it’s probably better described as garden-variety sloppiness. It seems more likely that the Times does not have consistent standards here, and editors alternate between fostering over-reliance on anonymous sources and forbidding the practice.

A 2017 Times piece from the standards editor notes that many stories “present tough decisions—reporting about children, for instance, or people worried about their safety, or others who may be naive about the impact publicity could have on them” and “since no set of guidelines can cover every situation, the best we can do is to try to balance those questions of fairness and privacy with our chief goal: to tell readers what we know.” If that’s the policy—and if the piece doesn’t contain a bombshell that necessitates the use of his name—it’s hard to understand why Virgil Texas’s request for anonymity is granted but Scott Alexander’s is refused.

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