While June rate-hike odds slide, July’s conditional probability of a hike is surging to 48% – its highest since the end of QE3 following Dallas Fed’s Robert Kaplan’s comments that “rates this low can cause distortions,” adding that the US economy is “getting to the point where it makes sense to hike rates.”
- *FED’S KAPLAN SAYS U.S. CONSUMER IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE
- *KAPLAN: U.S. IS GETTING PRETTY CLOSE TO FULL EMPLOYMENT
- *KAPLAN: GETTING TO POINT WHERE MAKES SENSE TO TAKE ANOTHER STEP
- *FED’S KAPLAN SAYS NEXT STEP ‘DOESN’T NECESSARILY’ MEAN JUNE
- *KAPLAN: THERE’S A COST TO RUNNING RATES THIS LOW
- *FED’S KAPLAN SAYS RATES THIS LOW CAN CAUSE DISTORTIONS
- *FED’S KAPLAN: `THE WAR OF 2016 IS WE’VE GOT TO GROW’
- *KAPLAN: WE EXPECT CHINA GDP TO CONTINUE TO RATCHET DOWN
But given all that relative hawkishness… Kaplan goes CYA…
- *KAPLAN: SEE SOME IMMEDIATE TAIL RISK IF U.K. VOTES TO EXIT EU
- *KAPLAN: `WE NEED TO BE PREPARED’ IF U.K. VOTES TO EXIT EU
And the reaction in markets…
Chart: Bloomberg (Note – these are conditional probabilities of a hike at that point in time (not cumulative))
This implies July is the next rate-hike and then we are done until at least December… which is perhaps why the long-end of the curve is seeing rates tumble.
via http://ift.tt/1UiCmaY Tyler Durden