Germany’s Inflation Scapegoat: Why Hormuz Is A Convenient Cover Story

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Over the weekend, economist Gerrit Heinemann warned in Bild of a drastic increase in food prices in Germany. The scholar from Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences focused his analysis on the massive rise in fertilizer prices. A significant share of these—estimated at roughly one third of global production—is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Following the dual blockage of the strait, this sector too has entered a state of global scarcity, forcing farmers worldwide to adjust prices, which ultimately feeds through to consumer prices.

Heinemann concludes that Germany’s food price index could rise by as much as ten percent this year. In Berlin, a familiar narrative has already taken hold, and there is broad agreement: the Hormuz crisis alone is responsible for the disaster. Yet core inflation had already reached around 2.7 percent year-on-year in March. Price increases across the entire spectrum of goods—especially energy and housing, which has become scarce due to migration—have accompanied Germany’s economic decline for quite some time. Only the dramatic slump in private investment and general consumer restraint have slightly dampened price pressures in recent years.

What stands out in this development is the steady upward revision of inflation forecasts. In March, there was consensus between the Economics Ministry and leading research institutes that inflation would come in at around three percent this year. By early April, after one month of the Iran crisis, economists at the International Monetary Fund were projecting price increases of five to six percent.

Now comes the ten-percent hammer in food prices. One could also put it this way: the culprit for rising prices in Germany has been found. Media and government point at every opportunity to Washington, where the supposed architect of the disaster allegedly sits: Donald Trump. But does this thesis hold?

Simultaneous with the abrupt rise in inflation forecasts are the recurring downward revisions of Germany’s economic growth rates. After more than two decades of eco-socialist restructuring, loose monetary policy, and now rapidly expanding public debt, Germany’s economy can be described simply: it is retreating in a dramatic process of contraction, while prices will continue to rise amid a crisis of productivity and investment. Incidentally, food prices rose by more than 40 percent between 2019 and 2025 as financial markets and the broader economy were flooded with cheap credit during the lockdown period, as documented by the Federal Statistical Office.

Hormuz is a cheap diversion from the disastrous policies that the firewall party cartel has been pursuing for some time in order to build a new green socialism. We are witnessing a radical paradigm shift not seen since the end of the Second World War. It is common knowledge that cheap energy, technological openness, a functioning market economy, and stable money were the factors that once underpinned Germany’s economic success.

It is now proving costly to be at odds with its most important energy and raw materials supplier, Russia, and to have effectively declared perpetual conflict with Moscow. History teaches us that ideological fervor always goes hand in hand with fanaticism. Blowing up one’s own nuclear capacity was, quite literally, a reckless gamble—an act of blind ideological infantilism rarely seen anywhere in the world in our era.

Together with Brussels, Berlin is pursuing a scorched-earth policy when it comes to returning to a market-based energy framework and sound regulatory principles. No matter how hard the current energy crisis hits, German policymakers remain committed to their green-socialist ideology. By clinging rigidly to CO₂ rent-seeking, grotesque climate regulation, and an energy policy run amok, the country has maneuvered itself into a geopolitical straitjacket. Germany’s economy now has its back against the wall. And Berlin has found its solution: the German middle class will be bled dry to finance the capital’s debt excesses and conceal the scale of the disaster.

What is dramatically worsening the situation in recent weeks is a series of attacks worldwide on refinery infrastructure. Whether in the United States, Australia, or war-affected Russia, the problems are intensifying. For Germany, an additional blow is that Russia will halt the transit of Kazakh oil to the Schwedt refinery via the Druzhba pipeline.

It is high time to develop domestic energy resources—fracking gas and drilling in the North and Baltic Seas—to signal to markets and consumers that rational policymaking has returned. Only then could Germany credibly declare the end of its post-Enlightenment delusion. A Europe-wide initiative to finance and build nuclear capacity would be urgently required. Yet Brussels and Berlin have decided otherwise: if necessary, access to energy will be rationed. The expansion of eco-socialism is to continue at all costs—energy thus becomes an absolute lever of political power over citizens, who are suffering from the ideological rigidity and intellectual failure of European policymakers to reduce energy dependence through market mechanisms and negotiated solutions.

The inflation problem is self-inflicted. Only a completely distorted and ideologically colored media narrative surrounding the Iran crisis and the consequences of centralized energy policy has so far prevented the public from correctly perceiving the economic disaster. The year 2026 will likely be the year in which personal escapism carries severe monetary consequences.

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About the author: Thomas Kolbe has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.