Florida & Texas Lead Jobless Claims Rebound From Near Record Lows

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time rose last week to 211k (more than the 205k expected), but remain well within the range of the last five years, near record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Florida and Texas saw the biggest rise in initial claims while California and Michigan saw the largest declines…

Continuing jobless claims also rose modestly last week, up to 1.782mm Americans (but still well below the 1.9mm Maginot Line)…

Source: Bloomberg

Combined with last week’s positive payrolls print (and this week’s surging inflation data), expectations for Warsh rate-cuts have now evaporated (market expects 10bps of hikes in 2026).