Like On The Titanic… The Band Plays On

Like On The Titanic… The Band Plays On

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

It is said the dance band on the Titanic played on as the ship went down. This was all done as a grand effort to reassure the passengers and ease the panic in their hearts. Consider the possibility that behind all the noise we hear today a similar effort is being made to comfort us and take your attention off the hopeless feeling that comes when things sink away beneath your feet. For the last several months I have come to feel a similar story is playing out here. The Biden-Yellen-Powell economy is less than inspiring. 

As The Ship Goes Down The Band Plays On

Looking back, it is clear the Fed’s policies have hurt savers, It has caused savers to flee towards riskier investment in search of higher yields, driven speculation, increased equality, add added to inflation. Rather than using the bully pulpit and warnings of higher interest rates to keep government spending in check, the Fad has acted as an enabler to the crowd in Congress that loves nothing better than to sending taxpayer money back home calming it is a gift and proof they are “working hard for their district.”

With historically low-interest rates, rising inflation, and many consumers struggling to make ends meet. The economy is at a place where there is not much capability to increase consumption without throwing money from a helicopter and massively increasing the national debt. The problem with that is such stimulus programs are poorly focused. As we look about in this post-pandemic covid-lite era we see supply chains crumbling, stagflation mounting, and jobs being lost to automation. These are all immense problems even in the best of times.

With this in mind, the president has thrown his weight behind a huge infrastructure bill at the worst possible time. These type of bills coming out when employers are already having difficulty filling jobs because many workers have lost their motivation to work will only add to the labor shortage and cause inflation to soar. While he mumbles phrases such as “the buck stops here,” and “I take full responsibility,” Biden has a way of resorting to finger-pointing and leaping into the blame game at a second’s notice. 

President Biden on Monday blasted Republican lawmakers’ approach to raising the federal borrowing limit and warned about the dangers of failing to do so. “A meteor is headed to crash into our economy,” Biden said during a White House speech. “Democrats are willing to do all the work stopping it. Republicans just have to let us do our job — just get out of the way.”

Money Supply Growth Indicates A Problem

It appears that Biden simply doesn’t get it. Rather than aligning himself with the American worker, he is part of a larger coalition made up of the poor, the deep state, and the globalist elites. All these groups have one thing in common, and that is they are willing to sacrifice our future for more money and power today.

This is evident in a number of policies rubber-stamped by this coalition that constantly favor big businesses such as Amazon over the far smaller companies that made American famous. Giving people money to stay at home and order online is devastating the brick and mortar stores that line the streets of our communities. These are the companies that pay taxes and provide jobs for our friends and families. The major labor shortage and a fall in productivity will have long lasting implications and become evident in the form of stagflation.

Amazon is the poster child of a failing America. In an ever changing economic environment, the government has aided Amazon in destroying America. Things like the USPS slating the company for special services and pricing. Approving Amazon to participate in delivering home grocery delivery on the SNAP program, and locking people in their homes while forcing many small businesses to close during the pandemic have all played to Amazon’s advantage.

Not only have small companies lost sales, but they also cannot afford to automate and replace workers with robots like their giant competitor Amazon. Small companies don’t have access to the cheap money flowing from Wall Street. This means small companies cannot compete and often cannot pay the same wages as large companies. Instead, small companies across America are forced to cut hours or even close at times because they cannot get employees. When customers find them closed they tend to develop the habit of looking somewhere else to buy things.

Adding to the woes of many smaller businesses are the expensive and ever-changing mandates being placed upon them by those in power. After the ship goes down, do not expect things to be pretty. Already, statistics show that 1-in-4 Americans primarily live on government support. The idea of simply giving these people more money in the hope it will boost consumption is unsustainable because the numbers don’t work. 

As the band plays on and water laps at our feet, most Americans ignore the signs we are in real trouble. Do not be surprised when we enter what will likely be a more protracted, deeper, and more damaging recession than what we saw in 2008. We would already be there if it were not for the crazy deficit spending going on in Washington. In fact, expect a depression, defaults and bankruptcies are only in the very early stages. The Fed has added a tremendous amount of liquidity to the system in order to repair credit spreads and mask over the flaws in the financial system but this will only delay the ugliness ahead.

Because so much is going on, current events have been drowning out reality making it hard to stay focused on the crux of financial and economic issues. That music coming from the dance band is a distraction that is difficult to ignore. There is no playbook for what is about to unfold when the ship goes down or anyone to turn to that has all the answers. Each of us must be aware of the risk and manage our finances accordingly. 

The one thing we do know is that in such a situation, the poor have little to lose, the rich often have ways to skirt much of the pain or, a reservation in the lifeboat. It is the so-called middle class that will be cast into the cold icy water to die when reality finally hits. An economy based on consumption and huge deficits is unsustainable. We need an economy where people produce and that appears to be slipping away.  

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/10/2021 – 09:20

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16 Dead After Russian Skydive Plane Crashes

16 Dead After Russian Skydive Plane Crashes

A Russian military plane used for commercial use crashed in Eastern Europe on Sunday in the Russian republic of Tatarstan, killing 16 people and injuring seven, according to RT News

The L-410 Turbolet plane had 22 on board, including a group of parachute jumpers. The incident occurred around 0923 local time near the town of Menzelinsk, about 600 miles east of Moscow. 

Russian Emergency Ministry said 16 perished in the crash, including two pilots, but six people were extracted from the wreckage alive. 

Aviation sources told TASS the accident could’ve been due to excessive weight onboard aircraft that impacted flight operations. Weight and balance have a direct effect on the stability and performance of the plane. Other reports indicate the plane may have suffered engine failure. 

Although Russia has increased aviation safety standards over the last decade, crashes of aging Soviet-era planes are not uncommon. In July, an Antonov An-26 turboprop aircraft crashed into the sea near the remote Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia’s far east, killing 28.

Newer Russian planes have also experienced recent crashes. In 2018, an An-148 regional jet plunged into a field just after takeoff from Moscow, killing all 71 aboard. In 2019, a Russian-made Sukhoi SSJ-100 jet burst into flames as it touched down on a runway in Moscow, killing 41.

As for the latest incident, the cause of the crash has yet to be officially announced. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/10/2021 – 08:45

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The ‘War On Cash’ Endgame Is Here

The ‘War On Cash’ Endgame Is Here

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

“Programmable Digital Currency”: The next stage of the new normal?

The war on cash’s endgame is here: money replaced by vouchers subject to complete state control.

Building on the bitcoin model, central banks are planning to produce their own “digital currencies”. Removing any and all remaining privacy, granting total control over every transaction, even limiting what ordinary people are allowed to spend their money on.

From the moment bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies first emerged, sold as an independent and alternative medium of exchange outside the financial status quo, it was only a matter of time before the new alternative would be absorbed, modified and redeployed in service of the state.

Enter “Central Bank Digital Currencies”: the mainstream answer to bitcoin.

For those who have never heard of them, “Central Bank Digital Currencies” (CBDCs) are exactly what they sound like, digitized versions of the pound/dollar/euro etc. issued by central banks.

Like bitcoin (and other crypto), the CBDC would be entirely digital, thus furthering the ongoing war on cash. However, unlike crypto, it would not have any encryption preserving anonymity. In fact, it would be totally the reverse, potentially ending the very idea of financial privacy.

Now, you may not have heard much about the CBDC plans, lost as they are in the tangle of the ongoing “pandemic”, but the campaign is there, chugging along on the back pages for months now. There are stories about it from both Reuters and the Financial Times just today. It’s a long, slow con, but a con nonetheless.

The countries where the idea progressed the furthest are China and the UK. The Chinese Digital Yuan has been in development since 2014, and is subject to ongoing and widespread testing. The UK is nowhere near that stage yet, but Chancellor Rishi Sunak is keenly pushing forward a digital pound that the press are calling “Britcoin”.

Other countries, including New ZealandAustralia, South Africa and Malaysia, are not far behind.

The US is also researching the idea, with Jerome Powell, head of Federal Reserve, announcing the release of a detailed report on the “digital dollar” in the near future.

The proposals for how these CBDCs might work should be enough to raise red flags in even the most trusting of minds.

Most people wouldn’t like the idea of the government monitoring “all spending in real-time”, but that’s not the worst it.

By far the most dangerous idea is that any future digital currency should be “programmable”. Meaning the people issuing the money would have the power to control how it is spent.

That’s not an interpretation or a “conspiracy theory”, just listen to Agustin Carstens, head of the International Settlement Bank, speaking earlier this year:

Here’s that quote again, with some emphasis added:

The key difference [with a CBDC] is that the central bank would have absolute control on the rules and regulations that will determine the use of that expression of central bank liability, and the have the technology to enforce that.”

…which tells you not only that they want and are seeking this power, but how they justify it to themselves. They transform other people’s money into an “expression of their liability”, and so consider it’s only right that they control it.

An article in the Telegraph, back in June, was just as candid [our emphasis]:

Digital cash could be programmed to ensure it is only spent on essentials, or goods which an employer or Government deems to be sensible

The article goes on to quote Tom Mutton, a director at the BoE:

You could introduce programmability […] There could be some socially beneficial outcomes from that, preventing activity which is seen to be socially harmful in some way.

Governments and employers making sure the money they issue can only be used on “sensible” things, and not be used in “socially harmful” ways? It doesn’t take much imagination to see just how this system could evolve and re-shape society into a truly dystopian nightmare.

In China the process is already beginning, with a trademarked lack of subtlety. As they progress toward the release of their digital currency, they are banning all cryptocurrencies to remove competition and it’s already known the digital yuan will be programmable.

The West’s approach will probably be less direct, but no less controlling for that.

Britcoin will likely be programmed in only “special circumstances”. Starting, as the Telegraph says, with state benefits. They will be flagged to be spent only on “essentials”. (Of course, if Universal Basic Income is put in place, then it’s possible the majority of people could end up on “state benefits”.)

It’s also not hard to see programmable money feeding into the “protect the NHS narrative”, where people aren’t allowed to spend state money on sugar, cigarettes or alcohol. Or people on organ waiting lists, or diagnosed with certain conditions, have their wages and spending controlled.

By and large, however, it is the nature of British tyranny to be unofficial. So the UK government will make a big show of renouncing their own power to program the money, thereby positively contrasting themselves with China…but at the time will take no steps to prevent large companies “programming” the wages they issue.

So, while the state controls the digital yuan in China, the digital pound will be subject to corporate control and used to enforce the unspoken state-corporate partnership that defines true fascism.

It will likely start in small, predictable ways designed to “limit competition”. McDonald’s, for example, will make it impossible to spend their wages at Burger King, and vice versa. Coke and Pepsi. Starbucks and Costa. You get the idea.

We’ve witnessed the rise of cancel culture, the cultivated age of identity politics, and virtue signalling. Well, imagine how programmable currency fits into that. Companies could commit to “combatting hate”, and stop their employees from donating money to black-listed political parties, religious groups, charities or individuals.

In the age of Covid we have seen how authors/actors/singers who step out of line are subject to poisonous witch hunts, but imagine a world where companies could “renounce those who spread misinformation”, by making it impossible to spend wages they issue on art/films/music/books by outspoken critics of the government.

Maybe companies will make it so that employees who aren’t vaccinated have more limitations placed on their wages than vaccinated ones. Maybe an unvaxxed paycheck can’t be spent at cinemas or nightclubs, to “stop the spread of the virus”.

John Cunliffe, deputy director of the Bank of England, told the Telegraph:

You could think of smart contracts in which the money would be programmed to be released only if something happened.

So maybe employers will remove choice altogether, and make a negative test and/or a vaccine booster a prerequisite for unlocking your wages. That could be applied to all kinds of behaviours moving forward.

The World Economic Forum has a clear vision of the future where people “own nothing and are happy”, combine that with a prolonged war on homeownership, and you can see employers and governments issuing money which can be spent on rent, but not on a mortgage.

Now imagine the nascent “Green New Deal”. Hard limits on how much money you can spend on petrol, plastic, or meat.

Only X dollars on flights per year. Only Y pounds on beef. All for the good of the planet.

Money will turn from an expression of independence into nothing but a voucher system operated completely at the whim of corporate monoliths.

All of this would have sounded like rampant paranoia just two years ago, but would you honestly be surprised to see that suggestion in the Guardian, these days?

A programmable digital currency would have, coded into it, the ability to control our entire society. And it looks like that’s where The New Normal is heading next.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/10/2021 – 08:10

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JPMorgan Prime Advises Institutions To Keep Shorting Even As The Bank Hikes Its S&P Price Target

JPMorgan Prime Advises Institutions To Keep Shorting Even As The Bank Hikes Its S&P Price Target

One wouldn’t know it from reading the “house view” research distributed for broad retail and media consumption, and to a large extent for political motives, but behind the cheerful and bullish facade spun by JPMorgan’s equity strategists, the bank is quietly telling a subset of its top clients that they should keep shorting the market.

This should come as a surprise – after all just a few weeks ago, with many Wall Street firms scaling back their stock market outlooks for the rest of the year, JPMorgan was adamantly bullish and in a recent note, the bank’s chief US equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said the bank is confident that strong growth lies ahead despite concerns that the recent downshift in economic and business cycle momentum will weigh on stocks. He also raised his year-end S&P 500 price target to 4,700 from 4,600, representing a 6% gain from current levels, and predicted that the index would hit 5,000 at some time in 2022.

So in light of this euphoric optimism, we found it strange that JPM’s “positioning intelligence” team, a group which operates under the umbrella of the bank’s Prime Brokerage team which in turn directly interfaces with institutional investor clients and provides them with ideas and insights from “top-ranked analysts, to high-touch sales and trading services, to world-class algorithmic and electronic trading capabilities” is far less enthused about the market’s near-term perspective. In fact, in its latest note, the team of JPM wonder traders whose views rarely if ever make it to the broader public is advising clients on “5 Reasons Why Shorts Can Continue to Work in the Medium Term.

Seems a bit strange to pitch shorts when your chief strategist sees stocks surging over 300 points in under three months? Or perhaps, JPM is playing both sides of the trade: getting its retail clients and less privileged institutions to keep buying, helping a handful of select top accounts to short into a rising tide. Then again, JPMorgan would never do something that duplicitous, would it?

Rhetorical questions aside, here is the thesis presented by the JPM prime folks; needless to say this would never make its way into a bullish “house view” research report:

During the recent drawdown, one element that’s helped HF performance is that shorts have generally worked. When compared to what we saw early this year, this is a welcome development and potentially a sign that HFs relative returns could appear better if the markets were to continue to correct. However, with the recent declines, the US High Short Interest stocks (JPTASHTE basket) are back to the mid-May lows in absolute terms and are back to relative lows on a YTD basis…  So a key question as we approach year-end could be will these rip higher once again? In general, we think shorts are not set up for a sharp reversal higher (i.e. they can continue to work), unless we see a very strong “risk on” market come back into vogue.

Digging deeper into this argument, and before getting into the main reasons for why JPM Prime thinks shorts can continue to perform better relative to the market going forward, it’s worth taking a quick step back to look at what’s happened this year on the short side. First, when we look at short “alpha” (i.e. the performance of shorts relative to the market), it suggests that shorts rallied much faster than the market and faster than longs at the start of this year, particularly among Equity L/S funds (left chart).

Everyone remembers the reason: the hedge fund inspired squeeze of “meme stonks” by millions of retail investors, who made hedge fund like Senvest which was long Gamestop well ahead of the short squeeze frenzy and which leaked its GME squeeze thesis to the reddit message boards, the best performing hedge fund of the year.

And yet WallStreetBets still thinks it is somehow “socking” it to the billionaire hedge funds, little do they know that they were merely pawns in a far bigger game which made one of said hedge funds, the one that precipitated the squeeze, fabulously wealthy as we explained in “The Curious Case Of The Hedge Fund That Made $700 Million On GameStop.” But we digress.

Again in late May to early June, we saw another period of fairly strong outperformance (i.e. negative alpha). Both of these periods were tied to greater activity among the retail community, especially among so-called “meme” stocks, with the timing coinciding with Joe Biden’s stimmies hitting bank accounts. However, and this did surprise us, JPM notes that since the peaks in Feb/Mar of this year, shorts have been underperforming the broader market and are actually underperforming on a YTD basis.

Second, looking at short activity (i.e. short additions vs. covering), we had seen sharp covering in 4Q20 as markets rallied into year-end and this persisted into Jan of this year, but the trend since then has been mostly one of shorts being added back. That said, the short additions on a cumulative basis still lag the long additions by a wide margin on a YTD, 2-year, or 4-year basis.

Third, High Short Interest stocks (e.g. the “tip of the spear”) clearly rallied very sharply — both in absolute and relative terms — in both Jan and late May. However, with the recent declines, these stocks are back to the mid-May lows in absolute terms and are back to relative lows on a YTD basis…so a key question according to JPM prime – again, these are the guys that institutions listen to, not the generic tripe distributed by “chief equity strategists” which is just fodder for CNBC talking heads, as we approach year-end is will these rip higher once again?

Below we get into some of the multiple reasons why JPM Prime thinks it’s less likely that we experience another Jan or late May “squeeze” – for what it’s worth we disagree completely and are confident that accumulating some of the most shorted names will soon pay off in droves, more on that in a subsequent post – however, one key factor (pun intended) that JPM wanted to emphasize up front is that it seems far less likely that “risky” factors will drive shorts higher going forward.

Thus, this suggests that the worst for High SI stocks (and the short book more generally) is likely behind us, given the regime backdrop could remain more favorable going forward. Put simply, a rally in “risky” factors drove a lot of the outperformance of High SI stocks from the Covid lows to this past Feb.  Importantly, the magnitude and duration of the factor moves is already in line with what we saw coming out of the low in the early 2000s and the 2009 low. Thus, JPM’s crack in house traders believe that “there’s a much lower likelihood that we get a repeat of what we saw from last March to mid-Feb of this year.” And again, we believe JPM is dead wrong… again.

With that in mind, here is what JPMorgan really thinks: 5 reasons why shorts can continue to work in the medium term:

  1. ETFs still make up relatively high % of the short book; thus, there’s room for a continued shift back to single-names
  2. Short Leverage is still low; it’s at a 1-year low for the All Strategies composite and only the 24th %-tile since 2017
  3. Lack of evidence that HFs are strongly pressing shorts in High SI stocks; there has been some increase recently, which may lead to some near term risk of a bounce higher due to covering, but this is quite different from the build-up into mid-May
  4. Distribution of shorts suggests fewer extreme names; there are still many fewer stocks that have SI/float at elevated levels (e.g. 0 stocks in the Russell 3000 with SI/float > 50% vs. 10 of these at the start of the year),
  5. Factors have mattered a lot, but they shouldn’t nearly as much going forward; from a regime perspective, “risky” factors – i.e. high trading activity, high vol, high earnings variability, high leverage – tend to outperform over the 12-18 months from a market low. Given the move we saw from the COVID lows was similar in both magnitude and duration to what we saw post other major market lows, it suggests that the risk of a persistent outperformance on the short side is less likely to occur

We drill down into these starting at the top:

1. ETFs as % of Short Book in N. America – Still Elevated

Among Equity L/S funds, the % of shorts in ETFs is down from the highs earlier this year (17-18% recently vs. high of 19% at end of Jan 2021). That said, the recent level is still elevated on a longer lookback and well above the ~14% it was pre-COVID and early 2021. Among non-ELS funds, ETF shorts have been trending lower to 10-11% of the book, from a high of 12% in 1Q21. However, the level is still higher than it was in early Jan 2021 or early 2020.

2. Short Leverage – Still Low

Among All Strategies, short leverage (i.e. short exposure as a % of equity) remains near ~1yr lows and is only at the 24th %-tile since 2017. Among ELS funds, it has been trending higher lately, but is still well below pre-COVID levels — it’s at the 52nd %-tile. One thing to note is that short leverage changes due to multiple factors including the relative performance of shorts, how it relates to HF performance (i.e. equity changes), and also includes derivative exposures. Thus, some of the decline among All Strategies is likely due to a) shorts performing better, b) performance holding up reasonably well lately, and c) some derivative exposures declining after quadruple witching in Sep. This is why it appears to be at odds with the recent flows that show a continuation of shorts being actively added.

3. High SI Stock Flows vs. Performance – Not pressing High SI Shorts

High SI stocks saw material outperformance at the start of 2021 amidst retail squeeze behavior and very large covering. In Mar to mid-May, we saw HFs re-engage and add shorts among these stocks as they underperformed, but ultimately this was reversed again as the names squeezed in 2H May into early June. More recently, JPM has seen relatively less shorting of the High SI stocks despite their relative performance dropping back to mid-May lows. On a related point, JPM notes that since the flows are for the stocks that already have High SI, i.e. these stocks were likely shorted prior to getting into the basket, it’s not too unusual to see a lack of further short adds, but the recent flows also suggest that there’s not a strong pressing into these names.

4. Distribution of shorts suggests fewer extreme names

In Jan 2021, the large covering of High Short Interest names caused a material reduction in the # of stocks in the Russell 3000 that had very high SI. In particular, the number of stocks with >50% SI/float went from 10 to 1, and was down from 19 at the end of 2019. However, the “belly” of the distribution has been rising as the number of stocks with 3-10% SI/float has been rising in the past few quarters. Given there are still relatively fewer stocks with 15%+ SI/float, the risk of a short squeeze having much broader market impacts seems relatively low. This is exemplified by the fact that in recent months, retail still seems to occasionally cause squeezes in one-off names, but a) they  often come back down and b) there haven’t been broader impacts as the High SI stocks have generally underperformed the
market.

4. Distribution of shorts suggests fewer extreme names

According to JPM, in Jan 2021, the large covering of High Short Interest names caused a material reduction in the # of stocks in the Russell 3000 that had very high SI. In particular, the number of stocks with >50% SI/float went from 10 to 1, and was down from 19 at the end of 2019. However, the “belly” of the distribution has been rising as the number of stocks with 3-10% SI/float has been rising in the past few quarters. As such the bank believes Given there are still relatively fewer stocks with 15%+ SI/float, the risk of a short squeeze having much broader market impacts seems relatively low. This is exemplified by the fact that in recent months, retail still seems to occasionally cause squeezes in one-off names, but a) they often come back down and b) there haven’t been broader impacts as the High SI stocks have generally underperformed the market. Again, we disagree with JPM here, and remain confident it’s just a matter of time before hedge funds – not retail – orchestrate the next squeeze wave.

5. Factor Matters (or to put it more clearly, Factors HAVE Mattered a lot, but they shouldn’t nearly as much going forward)

The performance of High SI stocks broadly correlates with the broader short book JPM Prime sees (although it generally hasn’t performed as well). However, understanding what caused the massive outperformance from the March 2020 lows to mid-Feb 2021 can help understand what’s likely going forward.

So what’s the main takeaway?

From a factor standpoint, the High SI stocks’ relative returns tend to be very positively correlated to a number of “risky” factors – i.e. stocks with high trading activity, high vol, high earnings variability, high leverage – and negatively correlated to stocks with lower risk – i.e. large caps, highly profitable stocks. Put simply, HFs are often shorting lower quality, highly volatile (and liquid), smaller cap stocks. When JPM takes the average return across these factors, it sees a very strong relationship to the relative returns of the High SI stocks. Looking at the chart since the start of 2020 (right chart below), the average factor driver line has been extremely correlated to the High SI stocks relative returns, except for Jan 2021 and then late May 2021, arguably as large HF covering drove these stocks to diverge from the factor drivers for a period of time.

So what is JPM’s the view going forward, and why does it differ so much from the “house view”?

As the Prime folks explain, the magnitude and duration of the factor moves, which have tended to drive the High SI stocks to outperform post a market low, are already in line with what we saw coming out of the low in the early 2000s and the 2009 low. Thus, the bank believes that there’s a much lower likelihood that we get a repeat of what we saw from last March to mid-Feb of this year.

For those curious about more details, the charts below on the left show the relative returns of the High SI stocks since 2014 against the various factors that seem to influence them. The right charts show these various factors vs. the SPX since 2000.

Finally, JPM takes a brief look at some other questions on this topic.

First, how does retail’s role figure into this? Here the House of Morgan is confident that there is less potential for retail to drive broader risk propagation due to 1) more awareness among HFs of what retail is trading, 2) less concentrated shorts (see prior reasons 3 & 4 in particular), 3) retail trading shifting more towards ETFs lately.

Second, how does this look in other regions? Short performance has generally been less extreme in other regions, compared to what we saw in the US in 2H20 to early 2021. While there was some outperformance of top shorts in Europe in 4Q20 to Jan 2021, the volatility of the relative returns has generally been much lower. Additionally, in Japan and China there has not been as strong a move in the last year towards shorts outperforming.

Finally, where does JPM see shorts relatively low or high vs. history? On a global basis, it’s mostly Defensive sectors that appear to have relatively low short exposure vs. history (e.g. FBT, Utilities, Food Retail, Telcos, Household & Pers. Products). On the flip side, a number of Cyclicals and Financials generally have higher short exposure vs. history.

And while we thank JPM’s elite trading forces for this stern defense of institutional shorting, we wonder just how all of this jives with the bank’s overarching bullishness which has maintained JPM’s equity strategists such as Lakos-Bujas and Kolanovic at or near the top of the highest S&P price targets. As for who will be right in their “medium-term” outlook on the market, whether it is the bullish JPMorgan urging smaller retail investors and less important institutions to buy or the bearish JPMorgan telling its high margin prime brokerage clients to press their shorts here, we eagerly look forward to getting the answer over the next few weeks.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/10/2021 – 07:35

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2YFmi2g Tyler Durden

Brits May Be Forced To Take COVID Tests On Camera To Prove To “Health Advisers” They’re Not Lying

Brits May Be Forced To Take COVID Tests On Camera To Prove To “Health Advisers” They’re Not Lying

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Brits returning from holiday may be forced to take COVID tests on a live video call with “health advisers” to prove they’re not lying about the result.

Yes, really.

Double vaccinated travellers who return to Britain will be able to forego a PCR test in favor of a cheaper lateral flow swab.

However, the government is “concerned that those taking the tests could lie about the results.”

To prevent that from happening, the Health Secretary “is proposing travellers do their lateral flow test on video calls supervised by a health adviser from a private firm,” reports the Mail.

The change is set to be implemented on October 25th.

As we highlighted earlier, Australia has implemented an even more draconian scheme that mandates its citizens to provide geo-trackable selfies to police to prove they are staying at home.

Under a home quarantine pilot program in Victoria, Aussies will receive random phone calls from the government which they will have to reply to “within five minutes with a selfie sent to an app which will then geo-track where that person is and to make sure they are who they say they are as well.”

If they refuse to do so, health authorities will “come knocking,” according to a 9 News report.

What’s next? People under self-isolation being mandated to wear electronic tracking bracelets?

That was already under consideration, so it’s probably not too far away.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/10/2021 – 07:00

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750 Bases In 80 Countries Is Too Many For Any Nation: Time For The US To Bring Its Troops Home

750 Bases In 80 Countries Is Too Many For Any Nation: Time For The US To Bring Its Troops Home

Authored by Doug Bandow via AntiWar.com,

President Joe Biden did what his three predecessors could or would not: halt a seemingly endless war. It took two decades, but American troops no longer are fighting in Afghanistan.

An important aspect of the US withdrawal was closing Washington’s bases, which once spread across the country. Uncle Sam left Bagram Air Base, America’s biggest facility in Afghanistan, on his way home.

However, some 750 American military facilities remain open in 80 nations and territories around the world.

No other country in human history has had such a dominant presence. Great Britain was the leading colonial power, but its army was small. London had to supplement its own troops with foreign mercenaries, as in the American Revolution. In wars with great powers Britain provided its allies with financial subsidies rather than soldiers.

Previous empires, such as Rome, Persia, and China, were powerful in their own realms but had little reach beyond. The latter never reached outside Asia. Persia was twice halted by the Greek city states. As great as Rome became, its writ never went much beyond the Mediterranean, with Central Europe, North Africa, and the Mideast its boundaries. The New World remained beyond the knowledge let alone control of all three.

A new Quincy Institute study by American University’s David Vine and World Beyond War’s Patterson Deppen and Leah Bolger details the global US military presence. Washington has nearly three times as many bases as embassies and consulates. America also has three times as many installations as all other countries combined. The United Kingdom has 145. Russia two to three dozen. China five. Although the number of US facilities has fallen in half since the end of the Cold War, the number of nations hosting American bases has doubled. Washington is as willing to station forces in undemocratic as democratic countries.

The study figures the annual cost of this expansive base structure to be about $55 billion. Adding increased personnel expenses takes the total up to $80 billion. Wealthier countries, which needlessly enjoy what amounts to defense welfare, typically cover a portion of the cost through “host nation support.” Not so Washington’s newest clients. Indeed, through the Global War on Terror over the last two decades the US military spent as much as $100 billion on new construction, mostly in countries, like Iraq and Afghanistan, which were financial black holes.

Although American bases face intense local opposition in some areas, such as Okinawa, facilities are seen as welcome money-makers in others. When President Donald Trump proposed pulling US forces out of Germany many locals’ greatest concern was economic. Indeed, the whining of local politicians who saw America’s presence as a financial rather than security issue was loud enough to heard across “the Pond.” Not only did they believe that Americans owed them military protection. In their view Americans also had a duty to bolster their economies.

However, the price of Washington’s globe-spanning is more than economic. Explained Vine, et al.:

“These bases are costly in a number of ways: financially, politically, socially, and environmentally. US bases in foreign lands often raise geopolitical tensions, support undemocratic regimes, and serve as a recruiting tool for militant groups opposed to the US presence and the governments its presence bolsters. In other cases, foreign bases are being used and have made it easier for the United States to launch and execute disastrous wars, including those in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya.”

Perhaps the most expensive installations were those established in Saudi Arabia after the first Gulf War. By renting out members of the US military as bodyguards for the Saudi royals Washington underwrote one of the most vile dictatorships in existence, a veritable totalitarian state with no political, religious, or social liberty. Although Crown Prince Mohammed “Slice & Dice” bin Salman, responsible for the murder and dismemberment of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi three years ago, has loosened some social strictures, he has greatly tightened political controls.

Worse from a foreign policy standpoint, America’s presence is one of the grievances which motivated Osama bin Laden to target the US Then Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz admitted in February 2003, before the invasion of Iraq, that America’s regional presence had cost “far more than money.” US bombing of Iraq and US troops in Saudi Arabia had “been Osama bin Laden’s principal recruiting device.” After the planned invasion, he added: “I can’t imagine anyone here wanting to … be there for another 12 years to continue helping recruit terrorists.”

Perhaps the most serious price of endless bases has been endless wars. Obviously, causation is complex. However, going to war usually leads to creation of new facilities. Such installations encourage a continuing military presence. Existence of nearby bases reduces the marginal cost of intervening and increases the maximal temptation to make new commitments, meddle in local controversies, and enter nearby conflicts. Observed the Quincy study: “Since 1980, US bases in the greater Middle East have been used at least 25 times to launch wars or other combat actions in at least 15 countries in that region alone. Since 2001, the US military has been involved in combat in at least 25 countries worldwide.”

American military facilities also raise expectations of host and neighboring nations. After Iran attacked Saudi oil facilities in September 2019 the well-pampered Saudi royals expected US retaliation but were sorely disappointed. Although President Donald Trump was right to allow the Saudis to “fight their own wars,” as he had tweeted five years before, America’s military presence, which Trump had increased, encouraged Riyadh to expect more – and might have motivated a more conventional president to act.

Vine, et al. point to other costs as well. The Department of Defense is a terrible environmental actor. Although its practices have much improved in recent years, the accumulated damage is enormous. There also are questions about Washington’s tendency to load up US territories, such as Guam, with military installations. Such areas are not exactly foreign, but the Quincy report contended that the heavy base presence “helped perpetuate their colonial relationship with the rest of the United States and their peoples’ second class US citizenship.”

Alas, DOD is less than forthcoming about the number of bases it maintains overseas. According to the report: “Until Fiscal Year 2018, the Pentagon produced and published an annual report in accordance with US law. Even when it produced this report, the Pentagon provided incomplete or inaccurate data, failing to document dozens of well-known installations. For example, the Pentagon has long claimed it has only one base in Africa – in Djibouti. But research shows that there are now around 40 installations of varying sizes on the continent; one military official acknowledged 46 installations in 2017.”

The Biden administration should make rationalizing the US base network a priority. Indeed, this should be an integral part of the Global Posture Review that the president announced in his February speech to State Department employees. He explained that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin would lead the process “so that our military footprint is appropriately aligned with our foreign policy and national security priorities. It will be coordinated across all elements of our national security.”

The initial task should be publicly listing military installations and their purposes. Then facilities should be consolidated, even if doing so angers local politicians and communities. After all, this process should be relatively painless overseas, in contrast to domestic base closures, which inevitably trigger fevered local and congressional opposition.

The next step would be tougher but necessary. The administration should rethink the underlying commitments used to justify the bases. Europe has no need of a US military presence for defense: the continent enjoys an 11-1 economic advantage and more than 3-1 population edge over Russia. South Korea has a 55-1 economic and 2-1 population superiority over the North. The Mideast Gulf monarchies are well-armed and now working with Israel as well as each other. Washington’s presence in Iraq is unnecessary, since it and its neighbors could together confront any remaining threats from the Islamic State. America’s intervention in the Syrian civil war never made sense. The Marine Expeditionary Force stationed on Okinawa is tied to Korean rather than Chinese contingencies and America’s bases there unfairly burden the local population.

Ending US security guarantees and avoiding fights not America’s own would allow Washington to shutter many existing military facilities. Halting endless wars in the Mideast would diminish the importance of logistical nodes in Germany and elsewhere. In appropriate cases the US could replace its bases with emergency access to foreign facilities to deal with unexpected contingencies. In broad sweep Washington should move from frontline to reserve status around the world.

The international threat environment has changed dramatically since the end of World War II, yet America’s global network persists. The impact of the Soviet collapse and Warsaw Pact dissolution was too great not to have eliminated some US facilities, but otherwise the Pentagon has been reluctant to leave existing bases.

The only sure way to close a local installation, it seems, is to lose a war, as in Vietnam and Afghanistan. That needs to change. America no longer can afford to garrison the globe. The Biden administration should make the US into a normal country again. And that means no more imperial legions stationed around the world for purposes other than America’s defense.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 10/09/2021 – 23:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Yy8J4D Tyler Durden

Forget Silver, Nevada Is Now The Lithium State

Forget Silver, Nevada Is Now The Lithium State

Lithium is one of the most in-demand commodities in the world today.

With the ongoing shift to electric vehicles (EVs) and clean energy technologies, governments and EV manufacturers are rushing to secure their supply chains as demand for lithium soars.

But, as Visual Capitalist notes, while the US is lagging behind in the global lithium race, it is only now starting to realize the need to catch up to China’s strong foothold. This infographic from Scotch Creek Ventures highlights the rising demand for lithium and the need for a domestic supply chain in the United States.

What’s Driving the Demand for Lithium?

Global lithium production more than doubled in the last four years to 82,000 metric tons in 2020, up from 38,000 metric tons in 2016. Here are some of the factors driving the lithium rush:

  1. More EVs on the Road:
    EV sales have been accelerating in recent years. Between 2016 and 2020, annual electric car sales increased by 297%, up from around 750,000 to nearly 2.9 million cars last year.

  2. Falling Battery Prices:
    Declining lithium-ion battery prices are allowing EVs to compete more aggressively with gas-powered cars. Since 2013, battery costs have fallen 80% with a volume-weighted average of $137/kWh in 2020.

  3. Rise of the Battery Megafactories:
    More battery manufacturing capacity means more demand for the critical minerals that go into batteries. As of March 2021, there were 200 battery megafactories in the pipeline to 2030, and 122 of those were already operational. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, if all 200 battery megafactories were operating at full capacity, their annual demand for lithium would be 3 million tonnes. That’s almost 37 times the 82,000 tonnes produced in 2020.

Although the demand for lithium is rising globally, its supply chain from mines to batteries relies on a only few critical nations.

China’s Lithium Dominance

In 2020, Australia, Chile, and China collectively made up 88% of global lithium production. After mining, the lithium supply chain involves refining, processing, and packaging the lithium into batteries—and the majority of this occurs in China.

In 2019, China produced 80% of the world’s refined battery chemicals, in addition to 73% of lithium-ion battery cells. What’s more, of the 200 battery megafactories in the pipeline to 2030, 148 are in China. As a result, China is far ahead of other countries in the race for lithium and batteries.

On the other hand, the U.S. is heavily reliant on imports for its supply of lithium, with only one lithium-producing mine in the country. As demand increases, this lack of production could threaten U.S. energy independence in the future. To address this and gaps in the supply of other critical minerals, U.S. President Biden also signed an executive order aiming to build secure supply chains for strategic minerals.

But where is lithium in the United States?

Nevada: The Lithium State

Nevada is known as the Silver State for its rich history of silver mining. Today, it’s the only source of lithium production in the U.S.

Clayton Valley and Kings Valley, two of the country’s largest lithium deposits, are in Nevada. The country’s only producing mine, Albemarle’s Silver Peak Mine, produces around 5,000 tonnes of lithium every year in Clayton Valley. Furthermore, the region is among the world’s richest closed-basin brine deposits based on grade and tonnage.

In addition to a rich lithium deposit, mining companies in Clayton Valley can also reap the advantages of Nevada as a jurisdiction. These include access to infrastructure, a skilled mining workforce, and proximity to a battery manufacturing base with Tesla Gigafactory 1. But that’s not all—in 2020, the Fraser Institute gave Nevada the top spot for mining investment attractiveness globally.

Meeting Lithium Demand for Energy Independence

As countries work to expand EV adoption, critical battery metals like lithium are becoming geopolitically significant, and their supply could redefine energy independence going forward. For this reason, the U.S., EU, and Canada all have lithium on their list of minerals that are critical to national security.

The U.S. needs to build a domestic lithium supply chain from the ground up, and Nevada has the potential to support it with lithium in Clayton Valley. Scotch Creek Ventures is developing two lithium mining projects in Clayton Valley to supply lithium for the green future.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 10/09/2021 – 22:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Yy6her Tyler Durden

One Ring To Rule Us All: A Global Digital Fiat Currency

One Ring To Rule Us All: A Global Digital Fiat Currency

Via SchiffGold.com,

We’ve written extensively about the “war on cash.”

In a nutshell, governments would love to do away with cash in order to better track and control their citizens. There have been numerous moves closer to a cashless society in recent years, from capping ATM withdrawals to doing away with large-denomination bills. Last year, China launched a digital yuan pilot program and the US has floated moving toward a digital dollar.

We got a first-hand look at what happens when governments restrict access to cash when India plunged into a cash crisis after the country’s government enacted a policy of demonetization in November 2016.

It’s bad enough that various countries are exploring ways to move toward cashlessness, but there’s an even worse scenario – a global digital currency.

Economist Thorsten Polleit compares it to the “master ring” in J.R.R. Tolkien’s classic Lord of the Rings.

The following article was originally published by the Mises Wire.

1.

Human history can be viewed from many angles. One of them is to see it as a struggle for power and domination, as a struggle for freedom and against oppression, as a struggle of good against evil.

That is how Karl Marx (1818–83) saw it, and Ludwig von Mises (1881–1973) judged similarly. Mises wrote:

The history of the West, from the age of the Greek Polis down to the present-day resistance to socialism, is essentially the history of the fight for liberty against the encroachments of the officeholders.

But unlike Marx, Mises recognized that human history does not follow predetermined laws of societal development but ultimately depends on ideas that drive human action.

From Mises’s point of view, human history can be understood as a battle of good ideas against bad ideas.

Ideas are good if the actions they recommend bring results that are beneficial for everyone and lead the actors to their desired goals;

At the same time, good ideas are ethically justifiable, they apply to everyone, anytime and anywhere, and ensure that people who act upon them can survive.

On the other hand, bad ideas lead to actions that do not benefit everyone, that do not cause all actors to achieve their goals and/or are unethical.

Good ideas are, for example, people accepting “mine and yours”; or entering into exchange relationships with one another voluntarily. Bad ideas are coercion, deception, embezzlement, theft.

Evil ideas are very bad ideas, ideas through which whoever puts them into practice is consciously harming others. Evil ideas are, for example, physical attacks, murder, tyranny.

2.

With Lord of the Rings, J. J. R. Tolkien (1892–1973) wrote a literary monument about the epic battle between good and evil. His fantasy novel, published in 1954, was a worldwide success, not least because of the movie trilogy, released from 2001 to 2003.

What is Lord of the Rings about? In the First Age, the deeply evil Sauron—the demon, the hideous horror, the necromancer—had rings of power made by the elven forges.

Three Rings for the Elven-kings under the sky,

Seven for the Dwarf-lords in their halls of stone,

Nine for Mortal Men doomed to die,

One for the Dark Lord on his dark throne

In the Land of Mordor where the Shadows lie.

One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them,

One Ring to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them.

In the Land of Mordor where the Shadows lie.

But Sauron secretly forges an additional ring into which he pours all his darkness and cruelty, and this one ring, the master ring, rules all the other rings.

When Sauron puts the master ring on his finger, he can read and control the minds of everyone wearing one of the other rings.

The elves see through the dark plan and hide their three rings. The seven rings of the dwarves also fail to subjugate their bearers. But the nine rings of men proved to be effective: Sauron enslaved nine human kings, who were to serve him.

Then, however, in the Third Age, in the battle before Mount Doom, Isildur, the eldest son of King Elendils, severed Sauron’s ring finger with a sword blow. Sauron is defeated and loses his physical form, but he survives.

Now Isildur has the ring of power, and it takes possession of him. He does not destroy the master ring when he has the opportunity, and it costs him his life. When Isildur is killed, the ring sinks to the bottom of a river and remains there for twenty-five hundred years.

Then the ring is found by Smeagol, who is captivated by its power. The ring remains with its finder for nearly five hundred years, hidden from the world.

Over time, Sauron’s power grows again, and he wants the Ring of Power back. Then the ring is found, and for sixty years, it remains in the hands of the hobbit Bilbo Baggins, a friendly, well-meaning being who does not allow himself to be seduced by the power of the One Ring.

Years later, the wizard Gandalf the Gray learns that Sauron’s rise has begun, and that the Ring of Power is held by Bilbo Baggins.

Gandalf knows that there is only one way to defeat the ring and its evil: it must be destroyed where it was created, in Mordor.

Bilbo Baggins’s nephew, Frodo Baggins, agrees to take the task upon himself. He and his companions—a total of four hobbits, two humans, a dwarf, and an elf—embark on the dangerous journey.

They endure hardship, adversity, and battles against the dark forces, and in the end, they succeed at what seemed impossible: the destruction of the ring of power in the fires of Mount Doom. Good triumphs over evil.

3.

The ring in Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings is not just a piece of forged gold. It embodies Sauron’s evil, corrupting everyone who lays hands or eyes on it, poisons their soul, and makes them willing helpers of evil.

No one can wield the cruel power of the One Ring and use it for good; no human, no dwarf, no elf.

Can an equivalent for Tolkien’s literary portrait of the evil ring be found in the here and now? Yes, I believe so, and in the following, I would like to offer you what I hope is a startling, but in any case, entertaining, interpretation.

Tolkien’s Rings of Power embody evil ideas.

The nineteen rings represent the idea that the ring bearers should have power over others and rule over them.

And the One Ring, to which all other rings are subject, embodies an even darker idea, namely that the bearer of this master ring has power over all other ring bearers and those ruled by them; that he is the sole and absolute ruler of all.

The nineteen rings symbolize the idea of establishing and maintaining a state (as we know it today), namely a state understood as a territorial, coercive monopoly with the ultimate power of decision-making over all conflicts.

However, the One Ring of power stands for the particularly evil idea of creating a state of states, a world government, a world state; and the creation of a single world fiat currency controlled by the states would pave the way toward this outcome.

4.

To explain this, let us begin with the state as we know it today. The state is the idea of the rule of one over the other.

This is how the German economist, sociologist, and doctor Franz Oppenheimer (1864–1946) sees it:

The state … is a social institution, forced by a victorious group of men on a defeated group, with the sole purpose of regulating the dominion of the victorious group over the vanquished and securing itself against revolt from within and attacks from abroad…. This dominion had no other purpose than the economic exploitation of the vanquished by the victors.

Joseph Stalin (1878–1953) defined the state quite similarly:

The state is a machine in the hands of the ruling class to suppress the resistance of its class opponents.

The modern state in the Western world no longer uses coercion and violence as obviously as many of its predecessors.

But it, too, is, of course, built on coercion and violence, asserts itself through them, and most importantly, it divides society into a class of the rulers and a class of the ruled.

How does the state manage to create and maintain such a two-class society of rulers and ruled?

In Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings, nine men, all of them kings, wished to wield power, and so they became bearers of the rings, and because of that, they were inescapably bound to Sauron’s One Ring of power.

This is quite similar to the idea of the state. To seize, maintain, and expand power, the state seduces its followers to do what is necessary, to resort to all sorts of techniques: propaganda, carrot and stick, fear, and even terror.

The state lets the people know that it is good, indispensable, inevitable. Without it, the state whispers, a civilized coexistence of people would not be possible.

Most people succumb to this kind of propaganda, and the state gets carte blanche to effectively infiltrate all economic and societal matters—kindergarten, school, university, transport, media, health, pensions, law, security, money and credit, the environment—and thereby gains power.

The state rewards its followers with jobs, rewarding business contracts, and transfer payments. Those who resist will end up in prison or lose their livelihood or even their lives.

The state spreads fear and terror to make people compliant—as people who are afraid are easy to control, especially if they have been led to believe that the state will protect them against any evil.

Lately, the topics of climate change and coronavirus have been used for fear-mongering, primarily by the state, which is skillfully using them to increase its omnipotence: it destroys the economy and jobs, makes many people financially dependent on it, clamps down on civil and entrepreneurial freedoms.

However, it is of the utmost importance for the state to win the battle of ideas and be the authority to say what are good ideas and what are bad ideas.

Because it is ideas that determine people’s actions.

The task of winning over the general public for the state traditionally falls to the so-called intellectuals—the people whose opinions are widely heard, such as teachers, doctors, university professors, researchers, actors, comedians, musicians, writers, journalists, and others.

The state provides a critical number of them with income, influence, prestige, and status in a variety of ways—which most of them would not have been able to achieve without the state. In gratitude for this, the intellectuals spread the message that the state is good, indispensable, inevitable.

Among the intellectuals, there tend to be quite a few who willingly submit to the rings of power, helping—consciously or unconsciouslyto bring their fellow men and women under the spell of the rings or simply to walk over, subjugate, dominate them.

Anyone who thinks that the state (as we know it today) is acceptable, a justifiable solution, as long as it does not exceed certain power limits, is seriously mistaken.

Just as the One Ring of power tries to find its way back to its lord and master, an initially limited state inevitably strives towards its logical endpoint: absolute power.

The state (as we know it today) is pushing for expansion both internally and externally. This is a well-known fact derived from the logic of human action.

George Orwell put it succinctly: “The object of power is power.”  Or, as Hans-Hermann Hoppe nails it, “[E]very minimal government has the inherent tendency to become a maximal government.”

Inwardly, the state is expanding through all sorts of interventions in economic and social life, through regulations, ordinances, laws, and taxes.

Outwardly, the economically and militarily strongest state will seek to expand its sphere of influence. In the most primitive form, this happens through aggressive campaigns of conquest and war, in a more sophisticated form, by pursuing political ideological supremacy.

In recent decades the latter has taken the form of democratic socialism. To put it casually, democratic socialism means allowing and doing what the majority wants.

Under democratic socialism, private property is formally upheld, but it is declared that no one is the rightful owner of 100 percent of the income from their property.

People no longer strive for freedom from being ruled but rather to participate in the rule. The result is not people pushing back the state, but rather coming to terms and cooperating with it.

The practical consequence of democratic socialism is interventionism: the state intervenes in the economy and society on a case-by-case basis to gradually make socialist ideals a reality.

All societies of the Western world have embraced democratic socialism, some with more authority than others, and all of them use interventionism. Seen in this light, all Western states are now acting in concert.

What they also have in common is their disdain for competition, because competition sets undesirable limits to the state’s expansive nature.

Therefore, larger states often form a cartel. Smaller, less powerful states are compelled to join—and if they refuse, they will suffer political and economic disadvantages.

But the cartel of states is only an intermediate step. The logical endpoint that democratic socialism is striving for is the creation of a central authority, something like a world government, a world state.

5.

In Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings, the One Ring, the ring of power, embodies this very dark idea: to rule them all, to create a world state.

To get closer to this goal, democracy (as we understand it today) is proving to be an ideal trailblazer, and that’s most likely the reason why it is praised to the skies by socialists.

Sooner or later, a democracy will mutate into an oligarchy, as the German-Italian sociologist Robert Michels pointed out in 1911.

According to Michels, parties emerge in democracies. These parties are organizations that need strict leadership, which is handed to the most power-hungry, ruthless people. They will represent the party elite.

The party elite can break away from the will of the party members and pursue their own goals and agendas. For example, they can form coalitions or cartels with elites of other parties.

As a result, there will be an oligarchization of democracy, in which the elected party elites or the cartel of the party elites will be the kings of the castle. It is not the voters who will call the tune but oligarchic elites that will rule over the voters.

The oligarchization of democracy will not only afflict individual states but will also affect the international relations of democracies.

Oligarchical elites from different countries will join together and strengthen each other, primarily by creating supranational institutions.

Democratic socialism evolves into “political globalism”: the idea that people should not be allowed to shape their own destiny in a system of free markets but that it should be assigned and directed by a global central authority.

The One Ring of power drives those who have already been seduced by the common rings to long for absolute power, to elevate themselves above the rest of humanity. Who comes to mind?

Well, various politicians, high-level bureaucrats, court intellectuals, representatives of big banking, big business, Big Pharma and Big Tech and, of course, big media—together they are often called the “Davos elite” or the “establishment.”

Whether it is about combating financial and economic crises, climate change, or viral diseases—the one ring of power ensures that supranational, state-orchestrated solutions are propagated; that centralization is placed above decentralization; that the state, not the free market, is empowered.

Calls for the “new world order,” the “Great Transformation,” the “Great Reset” are the results of this poisonous mindset inspired by the one ring of power.

National borders are called into question, property is relativized or declared dispensable, and even a merging of people’s physical, digital, and biological identities—transhumanism—is declared the goal of the self-empowered globalist establishment.

But how can political globalism be promoted at a time when there are (still) social democratic nation-states that insist on their independence? And where people are separated by different languages, values, and religions?

How do the political globalists get closer to their badly desired end of world domination, their world state?

6.

Sauron is the undisputed tyrant and dictator in his realm of darkness. He operates something like a command economy, forcing his subjects to clear forests, build military equipment, and breed Orcs.

There are neither markets nor money in Sauron’s sinister kingdom. Sauron takes whatever he wants; he has overcome exchange and money, so to speak.

Today’s state is not quite that powerful, and it finds itself in economies characterized by property, division of labor, and monetary exchange.

The state wants to control money—because this is one of the most effective ways to gain ultimate power.

To this end, the modern state has already acquired the monopoly of money production; and it has replaced gold with its own fiat money.

Over time, fiat money destroys the free market system and thus the free society. Ludwig von Mises saw this as early 1912. He wrote:

It would be a mistake to assume that the modern organization of exchange is bound to continue to exist. It carries within itself the germ of its own destruction; the development of the fiduciary medium must necessarily lead to its breakdown. (6)

Indeed, fiat money not only causes inflation, economic crises, and an unsocial redistribution of income and wealth. Above all, it is a growth elixir for the state, making it ever larger and more powerful at the expense of the freedom of its citizens and entrepreneurs.

Against this backdrop, it should be quite understandable why the political globalists see creating a single world currency as an important step toward seizing absolute power.

In Europe, what the political globalists want “on a large scale” has already been achieved “on a small scale”: merging many national currencies into one.

In 1999, eleven European nation-states gave up their currencies and merged them into a single currency, the euro, which is produced by a supranational authority, the European Central Bank.

The creation of the euro provides the blueprint by which the world’s major currencies can be converted into a single world currency.

This is what the 1999 Canadian Nobel laureate in economics, Robert Mundell, recommends:

Fixing the exchange rates between the US dollar, the euro, the Chinese renminbi, the Japanese yen, and the British pound against each other and also fixing them against a new unit of account, the INTOR. And hocus pocus: here is the world fiat currency, controlled by a cartel of central banks or a world central bank.

7.

Admittedly, creating a single world fiat currency seems to have little chance of being realized at first glance. But maybe at second glance.

First of all, there is a good economic reason for having a single world currency: if all people do business with the same money, the productive power of money is optimized. From an economic standpoint, the optimal number of monies in the world is one.

What is more, nation-states have the monopoly of money within their respective territory, and since they all adhere to democratic socialism, they also have an interest in ensuring that there is no currency competition—not even between different state fiat currencies. This makes them susceptible to the idea of reducing the pluralism of currencies.

Furthermore, one should not misinterpret the so-called rivalry between the big states such as the US and China and between China and Europe, which is being discussed in the mainstream media on a regular basis.

No doubt that there is a rivalry between the national rulers: they do not want to give up the power they have gained in their respective countries; they want to become even more powerful.

But the rivalry between the oligarchic democracies of the West has already weakened significantly, and there are great incentives for the oligarchic party elites to work together across borders.

In fact, it is the oligarchization of democracy in the Western world that allowed for the rapprochement with a socialist-communist regime: the state increasingly taking control of the economic and societal system.

This development could be called “the Chinacization of the West.”

The way the Western world has dealt with the coronavirus—the suspension, perhaps the termination of constitutional rights and freedoms—undoubtedly shows where the journey is headed: to the authoritarian state that is beyond the control of the people—as is the case in Communist China. The proper slogan for this might be “One System, Many Countries.”

Is it too farfetched to assume that the Western world will make common cause with Communist China not only on health issues but also on the world currency issue? The democratic socialists in the West and the Chinese Communist Party have a great deal of common ground and common interest, I would think.

It is certainly no coincidence that China has pushed hard for the Chinese renminbi to be included in the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights, and that the IMF already agreed in November 2015.

8.

The issue of digital central bank money, something the world’s major central banks are working on, could be a catalyst in the creation of a single world currency.

The issue of digital central bank money not only heralds the end of cash—the anonymous payment option for citizens and entrepreneurs.

Once people start using digital central bank money, it will be easy for the central bank and the state to spy on people’s transactions.

The state will not only know who pays what, when, where, and what for. It will also be in a position to determine who gets access to the deposits: who gets them and who doesn’t.

China is blazing the trail with its “social credit system”: behavior conforming to the Communist regime is rewarded, behavior that does not is punished.

Against this backdrop, digital central bank money would be particularly effective at stifling unwanted political opposition.

Digital central bank money will not only replace cash, but it will also increasingly compete with money from commercial banks.

Why should you keep your money with banks that are exposed to the risk of default when you can keep it safe with the central bank that never goes bankrupt?

Once commercial bank deposits can be exchanged one to one for digital central bank money—and this is to be expected—the credit and monetary system is de facto fully nationalized.

Because under these conditions, the central bank transfers its unlimited solvency to the commercial banking sector.

This completely deprives the financial markets of their function of determining the cost of capital—and the state-planned economy becomes a reality.

In fact, this is the type of command and control economy that emerged in National Socialist Germany in the 1930s. The state formally retained ownership of the means of production.

But with commands, prohibitions, laws, taxes, and control, the state determines who is allowed to produce what, when, and under what conditions, and who is allowed to consume what, when, and how much.

In such a command and control economy, it is quite conceivable that the form of money production will change—away from money creation through lending toward the issue of helicopter money.

The central bank determines who gets how much new money and when. The amount of money in people’s bank accounts no longer reflects their economic success. From now on, it is the result of arbitrary political decisions by the central banks, i.e., the rulers.

The prospect of being supplied with new money by the state and its central bank—that is, receiving an unconditional basic income—will presumably drive hosts of people into the arms of the state and bring any resistance to its machinations to a shrieking halt.

9.

Will the people, the general public, really subscribe to all of this?

Well, government-sponsored economists, in particular, will do their very best to inform us about the benefits of having a globally coordinated monetary policy; that stabilizing the exchange rates between national currencies is beneficial; that if a supranational controlled currency—with the name INTOR or GLOBAL—is created, we will achieve the best of all worlds. And as the issuance of digital central bank money has shut down the last remnants of a free capital market, the merging of different national currencies into one will be relatively easy.

The single world currency creature that the political globalists want to create will be a fiat money, certainly not a commodity money.

Such a single world fiat currency will not only suffer from all the economic and ethical defects which weigh on national fiat currencies.

It will also exacerbate and exponentiate the damages a national fiat currency causes. The door to a high inflation policy would be pushed wide open—as nobody could escape the inflationary single world fiat currency.

The states are the main beneficiaries: they can get money from the world central bank at any time, provided they adhere to the rules set out by the world central bank and the special interest groups that govern it.

This creates the incentive for national states to relinquish sovereignty rights and to submit to supranational rules—for example, in taxation and financial market regulation.

It is therefore the incentive resulting from a single world currency that paves the way toward a world government and a world state.

In this context, please note what happened in the euro area: the starting point was not the creation of the EU superstate, which was to be followed by the introduction of the euro. It was exactly the opposite: the euro was introduced to overcome national sovereignty and ultimately establish the United Nations of Europe.

One has good reason to fear that the idea of issuing a world fiat currency—which the master ring relentlessly pushes for—would bring totalitarianism—that would most likely dwarf the regimes established by Joseph Stalin, Adolf Hitler, Mao Zedong, Pol Pot, and other criminals.

10.

In Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings, evil is eventually defeated. The story has a happy ending. Will it be that easy in our world?

The ideas of having a state (as we know it today), of tolerating it, of cooperating with it, of giving the state total control over our money, of accepting fiat money, are deeply rooted in people’s minds as good ideas.

Where are the forces supposed to come from that will enlighten people about the evil that the state (as we know it today) brings to humanity?

Particularly when in kindergartens, schools, and universities—which are all in the hands of the state—the teachings of collectivism-socialism-Marxism are systematically drummed into people’s (especially impressionable children’s) heads, when the teachings of freedom, free market and free society, and capitalism are hardly or not at all imparted to the younger generation?

Who will explain to people the uncomfortable truth that even a minimal state will become a maximal state? That states’ monopolies over money will lead to a single world currency and thus world tyranny?

It does not take much to become bleak when it comes to the future of the free economic and social order.

However, it would be rather shortsighted to get pessimistic.

Those who believe in Jesus Christ can trust that God will not fail them. If we cannot think of a solution to the problems at hand, the believers can trust God. Because “[e]ven in the darkest night, there is a bright light shining somewhere.”

Or: please remember the Enlightenment movement in the eighteenth century. At that time, the Prussian philosopher Immanuel Kant explained the “unheard of” to the people, namely that there is such a thing as “autonomy of reason.”

It means that you and I have the indisputable right to lead our lives independently; that we should handle it according to self-imposed rules, rules that we determine ourselves based on good reason.

People back then understood Kant’s message. Why should such an intellectual revolution—triggered by the writings and words of a free thinker—not be able to repeat itself in the future?

Or: the fact that people have not yet learned from bad experience does not mean that they won’t eventually learn from it.

When it comes to thinking about changes for the better, it is important to note that it is not the mass of people that matters, but the individual.

Applied to the conditions in today’s world, among those thinkers who can defeat evil and help the good make a breakthrough are Ludwig von Mises, Murray Rothbard, and Hans-Hermann Hoppe—and all those following their teachings and fearlessly disseminating them—as scholars or as fans.

They are—in terms of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings—the companions. They give us the intellectual firepower and the courage to fight and defeat evil.

I don’t know if Ludwig von Mises knew Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings. But he was certainly well aware of the struggle between good and evil that continues throughout human history.

In fact, the knowledge of this struggle shaped Mises’s maxim of life, which he took from the verse of the Roman poet Virgil (70 to 19 BC):

“Tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito,” which means “Do not give in to evil but proceed ever more boldly against it.”

I want to close my interpretation with a quote from Samwise Gamgee, the loyal friend and companion of Frodo Baggins.

In a really hopeless situation, Sam says to Frodo: “There is something good in this world, Mr. Frodo. And it’s worth fighting for.”

So if we want to fight for the good in this world, we know what we have to do: we have to fight for property and freedom and against the darkness that the state (as we know it today) wishes to bring upon us, especially with its fiat money.

In fact, we must fight steadfastly for a society of property and freedom!

Tyler Durden
Sat, 10/09/2021 – 22:00

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Lebanese Army Seizes Over 28 Tons Of Ammonium Nitrate In Town With Terror Ties

Lebanese Army Seizes Over 28 Tons Of Ammonium Nitrate In Town With Terror Ties

The Lebanese Army announced this week that it has seized over 28 tons of ammonium nitrate during a raid at a gas station in Arsal in the Bekaa region, which is near the border with Syria. The fertilizer can be used in bomb-making, and the seizure comes after hundreds of tons of the same substance caused the August 2020 blast which killed 200 people and decimated whole neighborhoods in Beirut. 

“Following information about the presence of ammonium nitrate in the town of Arsal, on October 4, an army patrol and military intelligence raided a gas station in the town, and seized 28,275 kilogrammes of ammonium nitrate,” Lebanon’s army announced in a Tuesday statement.

After math of Beirut port explosion in Aug.2020, Associated Press

Three Syrian men and a Lebanese citizen were arrested for improper storage, and possible charges that they skirted proper permits from the Economy Ministry – though it remains that given the area it was found is also a farming community, it could be that it was legitimately meant to be used as fertilizer. Some reports said it was being stored in a truck at the gas station.

According to Middle East news source The National, “The quantities seized on Monday sparked fears among Lebanese that dangerous chemicals continue to be improperly stored, putting the country at risk of another incident at a time of economic crisis.”

Currently Lebanese authorities are testing it the substance to see its concentration, according to the army statement: “It added that the bags storing the material indicated a nitrogen content of 26 per cent. The Army sent samples of the seized substance to check the percentage of nitrogen it contains.”

Arsal is a town that has been under the authorities’ microscope ever since the height of the Syrian war. “Arsal has become notorious in Lebanon after extremists from Syria briefly took over the small border town and engaged in deadly clashes with the Lebanese army in 2014,” The National noted.

“Days of fighting between the army, Al Nusra Front and ISIS killed at least 19 soldiers, dozens of civilians and 60 militants,” the report said. “Hezbollah is also active on Lebanon’s porous border with Syria.”

Various conspiracy theories being floated as to who is ultimately to blame for the Aug.4 2020 Beirut port explosion range from Hezbollah involvement, to blame placed on the Iranians, to Syria’s Assad – with some speculating the Israelis were behind it. However, consensus is that it was an accident after years of horrible neglect by government oversight authorities allowed unsafe and unstable amounts of ammonium nitrate to sit in a port warehouse, the immense blast was likely triggered when maintenance and wielding work ignited the substance.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 10/09/2021 – 21:30

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Is The Small Business Sector Being Deliberately Targeted For Destruction?

Is The Small Business Sector Being Deliberately Targeted For Destruction?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

The past 18 months have not been kind to small businesses. If you were unfortunate enough to live in a blue state during the onset of the covid lockdowns and you own a brick-and-mortar business then you have probably spent a large part of that 18 months closed, or struggling to stay open with a skeleton crew of employees. If you did manage to get a PPP loan from the government during shutdown you are now realizing that the 24-week grace period is running out and you will probably have to pay most if not all of that money back soon. Many who tried to get a PPP loan failed because the money was quickly chewed up by major corporations instead of being reserved for small businesses.

And this isn’t even the beginning of the list of troubles for small companies. I have to say, unless a large part of your business is handled online your chances of staying solvent are slim. This is not the fault of most business owners, though, it is a consequence of artificially created conditions and restrictions.

What do I mean by this? Well let’s look at some factors that many people might not be aware of…

Here’s why small businesses are suffering

For example, both state and federal governments have been offering some level of covid unemployment stimulus. In the case of federal programs this could amount to $300 extra a week on top of a person’s existing unemployment checks, even more if their state has a separate program. This has created a massive drought in the employee pool. No one wants to work when they can stay home, do nothing and make more money than they ever were before the pandemic. The reality is that there are jobs everywhere right now, but almost no one is applying.

This has led to major corporations and retailers offering unheard of sign-on bonuses in the range of $300 to $500. Some companies are offering to pay people just to put in an application. Many are offering incredible wage increases in the range of $15 an hour for unskilled labor.

But guess who can’t make offers like that? The majority of small businesses. Large corporate chains have enjoyed endless stimulus packages from the federal government and the central bank and as long as this continues they will always be able to outbid small businesses for employees. And though the federal covid checks are slowly winding down, there are still millions of people receiving regular unemployment for many months to come. In a bizarre twist, the jobless are now flush with cash and are in no hurry to rejoin the workforce. Small companies simply cannot compete and lure these workers from their covid vacations.

On top of this, we are now witnessing a dynamic which I have been warning would happen for years now – a stagflationary grind. That’s right, the debate that has been raging for a decade among alternative economists is finally over: It’s not a deflationary depression or a Weimar-style hyperinflationary collapse that is bringing America down, but a crippling stagflationary malaise. This means that U.S. GDP will continue to decline and certain sectors of the economy will continue to decline while prices on many products (primarily necessities) will continue to increase or remain very high.

This creates a conundrum for small business owners – Their overhead is rising and this is shrinking their profit margins. But, if they raise prices it makes it even harder to compete with large corporations that are able to keep prices lower for longer because they have government stimulus backing them up. So, not only are brick and mortar businesses unable to compete for employees, they also can’t compete in terms of prices as the cost of materials and goods spikes. It’s inevitable, they will have to close down. There were over 200,000 extra small business closures in the past year alone due to covid and the lockdowns.

With small businesses being hit with a perfect storm leading to mass closures, the end result will be that only major corporations will be left to offer services in the near future, and I’ve been wondering for the past several months now if this is not part of the plan…

Re-engineering the Great Depression

I am reminded of the situation that took place during the Great Depression involving small banks. In the 1920s there were thousands of small town and county banks across the country that were unaffiliated with major banks like J.P. Morgan or Chase National. It might sound strange to hear it but before the Depression many banks used to be small mom and pop businesses. By the end of the 1930s over 9000 small banks had failed, and the primary beneficiaries were the major corporate banks that absorbed all the assets into their portfolios for pennies on the dollar.

In other words, the banking industry and the massive power it holds today was consolidated in the wake of the economic collapse of the 1930s, and nothing was ever the same again. This beneficial crisis was helped along by the Federal Reserve, which had artificially lowered rates through the 1920s, only to rip rates higher in the late 1920s and the early 1930s. In an address to economist Milton Friedman on his birthday, former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke admitted that the Fed was essentially responsible for the disaster of the Great Depression, stating:

“In short, according to Friedman and Schwartz, because of institutional changes and misguided doctrines, the banking panics of the Great Contraction were much more severe and widespread than would have normally occurred during a downturn.

Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”

It’s interesting to me that the collapse that the Federal Reserve “accidentally” caused just happened to be the same collapse that allowed their good friends in corporate banking to centralize financial power for decades to come.

Today, we may be seeing a similar scenario unfolding. Look at it this way – The lockdowns were completely unnecessary. They didn’t stop infection rates and thus they didn’t save any lives anyway. In fact, the states with the harshest lockdowns and strictest mask mandates also had the worst infection spikes.

The covid unemployment programs are mostly unnecessary and only justified by the pointless lockdowns. And the stagflationary conditions have been mainly inflamed by the trillions in stimulus that the federal government and the Federal Reserve printed from thin air to pay for the unnecessary covid response programs and unemployment. The covid checks and loans have conjured a workforce calamity, but they have also fueled a retail buying spree which is mostly enriching manufacturing hubs like China, triggering exploding shipping demand and shipping costs, straining the supply chain, jamming up cargo ports and raising overall prices by leaps and bounds.

Every single element of this crisis has been engineered. And I would suggest the possibility that, like in the Great Depression, major corporations are once again in a convenient position to devour the small business sector and become the only game in town for all retail and services.

Not only do corporations benefit from the death of small business, but so does the Biden Administration in its relentless pursuit of covid vaccine mandates. Consider for a moment that small businesses are the antithesis to covid controls. Why? Because they offer people who refuse to take the experimental vaccines an alternative to major retailers that might demand to see their vax passports. Small businesses are much more likely to defy the draconian mandates, so Biden also wins by removing competition to the corporate oligarchy that support his controls.

Even if a small business complies with the passport mandates it will not save them, because the amount of extra costs involved in enforcement will be too much for most of them. Constantly policing customers and employees for up-to-date vaccine cards will become a full time job. Any slip up could mean a $70,000 to $700,000 fine, and because they have already submitted to the passports those businesses will have no backup from the community if they try to refuse to pay. They will ultimately close down anyway.

Without liberty minded small businesses, the only options left for the unvaxxed will be self employment (which will also be made more difficult over time), or barter and black markets.

Ironically, it is this threat that also creates an opportunity for small business owners. If they band together within their communities and let their communities know that they absolutely will not enforce the vaccine passports on employees or customers, then they could actually have a way to compete with and defeat the big box stores. They would have far more potential workers applying for jobs so their employee pool would grow at this critical time, and, they would gain all the customers in their area that also refuse to comply with the jab. Unless they are operating in a blue county, they will likely gain considerable business.

All the incentives are there. Small businesses will succeed and local communities will have options for defiance of medical tyranny. Will it anger the overlords? Yes, but who cares. They want to put you out of business anyway, so why not take a risk and fight back? The choice is to make a stand now, or live under the heel of a boot for the rest of your days. That’s all there is.

However, these measures need to be taken now before it’s too late. I also expect that as stagflationary pressures mount smaller businesses and the communities around them will have to start considering alternatives to the U.S. dollar. Precious metals are one option, along with barter and trade or local scrip as long as it is backed by commodities. There is much to be done. It is time for small businesses to accept the possibility that they have been targeted for destruction; they can do nothing and wait for the hammer to fall, or they can take measures to protect themselves. I suggest the latter.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Sat, 10/09/2021 – 21:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3uVemG5 Tyler Durden