One day after both we and the WSJ previewed the ECB’s next easing bazooka, which in addition to cutting rates could also include tens of billions in monthly QE in the form of both the PSPP and CSPP…
… the ECB tried to regain control of the narrative and early on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that ECB policy makers “aren’t yet ready to rush into additional monetary stimulus at this month’s meeting”, preferring instead to wait for more data on the economy, according to euro-area central-bank officials familiar with the matter.
As Bloomberg’s source at the ECB – who asked not to be identified as he is most likely the head of the ECB – leaked, while Governing Council members agree that they could act on July 25 if the outlook deteriorates, “they are currently leaning toward the following meeting in September when they’ll have updated economic forecasts to back up their decision.” Instead of acting, the council might tweak its policy language this month to signal more stimulus is imminent.
This, of course, is precisely what Goldman said yesterday, when it wrote that it expects the Governing Council to adopt the “or lower” easing bias for policy rates in July and indicate that the ECB will analyze QE options for September.
At that point look for an easing package that closely resembles the “medium” package discussed above, including a 20bp rate cut with tiering, enhanced forward guidance and a return to QE.
Furthermore, Goldman expects the asset purchases to include corporate bonds and sovereign debt within the existing PSPP headroom, paired with a signal that the Governing Council stands ready to expand the sovereign purchase program with an increase in the issuer limit if economic conditions do not improve.
As Bloomberg adds, waiting until September meshes with investor expectations, as the market is now pricing a 10 basis-point rate cut by then, but some are looking for faster or bigger action. Commerzbank and Morgan Stanley expect 10 basis points as early as this month. HSBC forecasts 10 basis points in both September and December, and Goldman Sachs foresees 20 basis points in September. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs also expect a resumption of quantitative easing.
A delay also leaves the market more exposed to shocks over the summer months when liquidity is thinner. The prospect of escalating trade tensions was highlighted on Monday when the U.S. proposed adding more tariffs to European Union goods because of a dispute between Boeing Co. and Airbus SE.
Not surprisingly, a delay in easing by the ECB was seen as bullish for the common currency, and the euro jumped to the highest level of the day, climbing as much as 0.3% to $1.1321.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/323BF1o Tyler Durden
This should surprise absolutely nobody: Bloomberg reported Tuesday that President Trump’s decision to allow some American chipmakers to continue doing business with Huawei followed an intense lobbying effort by industry group SIA – i.e. the Semiconductor Industry Association.
The argument SIA used to convince the president was simple yet effective: sanctions against Huawei would make US chipmakers appear to be undependable partners, which could crimp their competitiveness against increasingly sophisticated international rivals.
Before Trump left for Osaka, a team of lobbyists met with Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to argue that the decision to add Huawei to the “entities list” – effectively blacklisting the firm by severely restricting what American firms are allowed to sell to Huawei – was short-sighted and could do serious harm to a critical American industry.
The lobbyists turned Trump’s national security argument – the idea that Huawei must be cut out of American markets because its products could enable Beijing to carry out mass espionage – on its head, arguing that cutting off US chipmakers from one of their largest international markets (China) would hurt long-term profitability as well as the company’s CapEx spend.
“Overly broad restrictions that not only constrain the ability of U.S. semiconductor companies to conduct business around the world, but also casts U.S. companies as risky and undependable, puts at risk the success of this industry, which in turn impacts our national security,” the group wrote last month. They added that the administration should take into account those factors when evaluating license applications from American firms.
And as it so happens, their arguments found their way to President Trump, who parroted some of these points when he unveiled his plan to give Huawei a reprieve.
Their talking points seem to have found their way to Trump. After concluding a high-stakes meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Osaka on Saturday, the U.S. president said American firms weren’t pleased with his Huawei policy and announced that he has agreed to let them keep shipping some of their components and technology.
“I’ve agreed — and pretty easily — I’ve agreed to allow them to continue to sell that product so American companies will continue,” the president said during a press conference. “The companies were not exactly happy that they couldn’t sell because they had nothing to do with whatever was potentially happening with respect to Huawei. So I did do that.”
Though there are still some strings attached.
He later clarified he will only allow them to sell “equipment where there is no great national emergency problem with it,” without offering more details. Trump’s comments stoked confusion among industry and analysts and the White House has not yet announced specifics on the path forward for U.S. companies doing business with Huawei.
The success of this lobbying effort just goes to show: While Trump has frustrated corporate America with his sometimes erratic approach to protectionism, his own belligerent rhetoric can be successfully used against him.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2xlAbld Tyler Durden
The head of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has appeared to U-turn on issuing digital currencies after a fresh interview with the Financial Times on June 30.
Speaking to the publication, BIS chief Augustin Carstens actively endorsed the creation and issuance of digital versions of national fiat currencies.
“Many central banks are working on it; we are working on it, supporting them,” he said.
“And it might be that it is sooner than we think that there is a market and we need to be able to provide central bank digital currencies.”
The comments struck a curious note with many, coming just months after Carstens emphatically advised against issuing such digital currencies.
In a speech in March, he listed various risks for banks considering doing so, arguing innovation should not come too fast.
In addition, both the BIS and Carstens himself are outspoken critics of decentralizedcryptocurrencies such as bitcoin (BTC).
Last year, he described bitcoin as lacking the ability to ever function as money and directed young people to “stop trying to create money.”
“…If you look at them closely, cryptocurrencies are, in a nutshell, a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster – the latter because of the high energy consumption needed to run the infrastructure for these cryptocurrencies,” he said in July.
More recently, the BIS has come out critical about Facebook’s new Libra cryptocurrency protocol, similarly due to the fact it resembles money beyond the control of a government.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2J3N5uM Tyler Durden
A stowaway fell out of the bottom of a jet as it was approaching Heathrow airport to land on Sunday, according to NBC. The incident took place after a nine hour flight from Nairobi and the body wound up landing in a garden.
Metropolitan police said that the body was found in a garden in South London on Sunday and that it was believed to have fallen from a plane. The body has not been identified, nor has an official cause of death been determined.
We are not coroners, but we’re going to go out on a limb and say that if the authorities’ hypothesis is correct, the cause of death is likely going to be – wait for it – falling out of an airplane.
Kenya Airways said that the body was traced to its flight from Nairobi to London. Furthering the case for a stowaway was water and food both discovered in the plane’s landing gear compartment when it landed.
The airline said the death was “unfortunate” and that it was cooperating with authorities. Meanwhile, experts have said that about 75% of stowaways in a plane’s undercarriage do not survive because of the extreme cold and lack of oxygen as a plane reaches cruising altitude.
And this isn’t the first body to fall from the sky and land in London, either. According to NBC, in September 2012, a 30-year old from Mozambique died after falling from the undercarriage of a Heathrow-bound flight from Angola.
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The ‘Lion of London Bridge’ who bravely fought off Islamic terrorists has been put on an anti-radicalization terror watchlist by the UK government over fears he could become a right-wing extremist.
Yes, really.
49-year-old Roy Larner screamed “f*** you, I’m Millwall” as he defended himself against jihadists who ended up killing 8 people and injuring 38 others during the horrific attack in London two years ago.
The attack left Larner with more than 80 stitches to his head, ear, arms and hands after two of the terrorists slashed at his head and neck.
Following the attack, Larner revealed that the terrorists had shouted, “This is for Allah” and “Islam, Islam, Islam” during the rampage.
Now Larner himself is being treated as a potential terrorist by the UK government.
Because he was allegedly contacted by far-right anti-Islam activists, Larner has been put on the government’s Prevent terror watchlist over fears he might become an extremist.
“They treat me like a terrorist but I’m not political at all,” said Larner, who revealed he has been forced to attend de-radicalization classes and is being monitored by the police.
Despite being hailed as a hero after the attack, with speculation that he could even be given the George Cross, the highest civilian award for gallantry, Larner is now literally being treated as a potential terrorist by his own country.
The United Kingdom is so addled with political correctness, it treats those who fought back against Islamic jihadists as terrorists.
Let the sheer intensity of that level of clown world insanity sink right in.
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With HBO’s Chernobyl mini-series re-heightening fears about nuclear power plants, headlines from The Aberdeen Press and Herald that workers were evacuated from part of Dounreay nuclear facility on northern Scotland after radioactive contamination was detected there, have spooked locals and raised questions about the decommissioned facility.
The incident occurred on June 7 but site bosses only publicly released details at a meeting of Dounreay Stakeholder Group on Wednesday evening.
Site managing director Martin Moore said human error was to blame for the episode which is the subject of an in-house probe.
“The contamination was very local but it wasn’t in a place it should have been, normally.”
“The levels were insignificant but they should not have been there so we cleared the area and then had a controlled re-entry.”
“It came down to a lack of due diligence in monitoring around one of the barriers.”
“It was human error. It shouldn’t have happened and we’re very disappointed that it did.”
Dounreay, an experimental nuclear power site, is being demolished and cleaned up at a cost of £2.32bn in a job expected to last up until 2033.
Officials from Dounreay Site Restoration Ltd (DSRL), the company tasked with decommissioning the plant, said that the measure had been precautionary and that the public was never in any danger.
“There was no risk to members of the public, no increased risk to the workforce and no release to the environment. “
DSRL have already been censured for a safety violation at the same site in 2014, when a fire caused by employees released radioactivity into the atmosphere.
In the wake of that incident, the company promised to “learn lessons” and implement a wide-ranging new safety strategy, which seemingly turned out to have issues as well.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2J4mMVm Tyler Durden
Swedish Television surveyed officials in the five Swedish municipalities — Gothenburg, Stockholm, Örebro, Malmö and Borås — that are home to most of the 150 IS returnees and found that those municipalities combined only have knowledge of the whereabouts of a maximum of 16 adults and 10 children.
“The United States is asking Britain, France, Germany and other European allies to take back over 800 ISIS fighters that we captured in Syria and put them on trial… The alternative is not a good one in that we will be forced to release them…” — U.S. President Donald Trump, Twitter, February 16, 2019.
The Wall Street Journal, in a recent editorial, “The West’s Foreign Fighter Problem,” noted that European governments face a “Catch-22” situation: either repatriate and prosecute their jihadis, or risk that they disappear off the radar and carry out new attacks in Europe.
The German government has lost track of scores of Germans who travelled to Iraq and Syria in recent years to join the Islamic State (IS). The revelation comes amid growing fears that some of these fighters are returning to Germany undetected by authorities.
The German Interior Ministry, in response to a question from the Secretary General of the classical liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), Linda Teuteberg, revealed that German authorities lack information on the whereabouts of at least 160 Germans who left to fight with the IS, according to Welt am Sonntag. The ministry said that while some had probably been killed in combat, others have gone into hiding and may be trying to resettle in Germany.
“In view of the very fragmented protection of the EU’s external borders, it is particularly worrying that the federal government appears to have taken no further measures to prevent the uncontrolled re-entry of underground IS fighters,” Teuteberg toldWelt am Sonntag.
She added that the government “still has no concept” for dealing with former IS fighters from Germany, including “Germans detained in the war zone as well as the more than 200 former IS supporters who are now back in Germany.”
Teuteberg said that the Interior Ministry should come up with a plan for how to deal with IS returnees and how to hold them accountable, by, for example, strengthening the legal capacity to investigate and prosecute war crimes abroad.
Of the estimated 1,050 Germans who travelled to Iraq and Syria to fight in recent years, approximately one-third (350) have returned to Germany. Another 220 are believed to have been killed on the battlefield. According to government sources cited by the German television program Tagesschau, approximately 120 are being detained in Iraq and Syria. In addition, at least 138 children of German IS fighters are being held Iraq and Syria. The whereabouts of the others are unknown.
The German government downplayed Teuteberg’s concerns that IS fighters can return to Germany unnoticed:
“Given the different measures (including most-wanted lists or entry barriers) that make uncontrolled re-entry significantly more difficult, it is also assumed in the future that entry without the knowledge of the German security authorities should remain the exception.”
It is known, however, that IS fighters have entered Europe — including Germany — undetected by posing as migrants: a majority of the terrorists who carried out the November 2015 Paris attacks, in which 130 people were killed and 360 injured, entered Europe by posing as migrants, according to counter-terrorism investigators. Most of the attackers were well-known to police and at least nine were on terrorist watch lists. Once they passed through the EU’s porous borders in southern Europe, they were able to travel throughout the rest of Europe undetected.
Missing IS fighters are a Europe-wide problem. A July 2018 study by the International Center for the Study of Radicalization (ICSR) at King’s College London estimated that more than 5,900 people — 3,379 men, 1,023 women, 1,502 minors — from Western Europe joined the Islamic State. Another 7,250 people from Eastern Europe joined the group.
According to ICSR estimates, around 1,765 IS fighters have returned to Western Europe, and 784 have returned to Eastern Europe. At least 800 IS fighters are being held at Kurdish detention camps in northern Syria. Around 700 of the fighters’ wives and 1,500 of their children are also in camps, according to Reuters. It remains unclear how many of the unaccounted IS fighters have been killed on the battlefield, and how many have gone into hiding.
In Austria, for instance, of the 250 IS fighters, 93 have returned. In Belgium, of the 500 IS fighters, 123 have returned. In Britain, of the 850 IS fighters, 425 have returned. In Denmark, of the 145 IS fighters, 72 have returned. In France, of the 1,900 IS fighters, 400 have returned. In Italy, of the 129 IS fighters, 11 have returned. In the Netherlands, of the 300 IS fighters, 60 have returned. In Spain, of the 210 IS fighters, 30 have returned.
In Sweden, of the estimated 300 people who left the country to join the Islamic State, approximately 150 have returned, according to the Swedish Security Service (Säpo). Around 100 Swedish fighters are believed to have died on the battlefield; the government does not have information on the whereabouts of the others.
Between 35 and 40 Swedish IS fighters have returned to Stockholm, but the municipality has not made contact with a single returnee, and may not even know where any of them live, according to an exposé by Swedish Television (SVT), the national public television broadcaster.
SVT surveyed officials in the five Swedish municipalities — Gothenburg, Stockholm, Örebro, Malmö and Borås — that are home to most of the 150 IS returnees, and found that those municipalities combined only have knowledge of the whereabouts of a maximum of 16 adults and 10 children.
The apparent apathy has been attributed to Sweden’s lack of legislation.
“We are almost the only country in the EU that lacks legislation against participation and cooperation with terrorist organizations,” said Magnus Ranstorp, a counter-terrorism expert at the Swedish Defense University in Stockholm.
“We are of course vulnerable,” he added. “Those who are dangerous and out on our streets can recruit more, and they can even plan terrorist acts.”
Meanwhile, hundreds of foreign jihadi fighters who are being held in Syria represent a “time bomb” and could escape and threaten the West unless countries do more to take them back, according to the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed authorities holding them.
“It seems most of the countries have decided that they’re done with them, let’s leave them here, but this is a very big mistake,” said Abdulkarim Omar of the Syrian Democratic Forces.
“Their home countries must do more to prosecute foreign fighters and rehabilitate their families, or else this will be a danger and a time bomb.”
In February 2019, U.S. President Donald Trump called on European countries to repatriate and prosecute their foreign fighters:
“The United States is asking Britain, France, Germany and other European allies to take back over 800 ISIS fighters that we captured in Syria and put them on trial. The Caliphate is ready to fall. The alternative is not a good one in that we will be forced to release them…
“The U.S. does not want to watch as these ISIS fighters permeate Europe, which is where they are expected to go. We do so much, and spend so much. Time for others to step up and do the job that they are so capable of doing. We are pulling back after 100% Caliphate victory!”
“We have 1,800 ISIS Prisoners taken hostage in our final battles to destroy 100% of the Caliphate in Syria. Decisions are now being made as to what to do with these dangerous prisoners…. European countries are not helping at all, even though this was very much done for their benefit. They are refusing to take back prisoners from their specific countries. Not good!”
On June 24, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, called for all foreign fighters who are being detained in Syria and Iraq to be repatriated, investigated and prosecuted, or released. “The continuing detention of individuals not suspected of crimes, in the absence of lawful basis and regular independent judicial review, is not acceptable,” she said.
Europe’s reluctance to take back their IS fighters is based on a mix of legal, financial and political factors. Some countries have begun repatriating the children of IS jihadis on a case-by-case basis but taking back foreign fighters and their families is deeply unpopular and carries political risk.
In France, for instance, Prime Minister Édouard Philippe recently said that he preferred that French jihadis were repatriated rather than them risk evading justice. They should be “tried, convicted and punished in France rather than disappearing in the wild to plan other actions, including against our country,” he said in a January 30 interview with France Inter. His comments sparked an immediate backlash. Valérie Boyer of the center-right party Les Républicains toldparliament that the government must “prevent the return of jihadists who betrayed France and fought against our civilization.”
National Assembly MEP Nicolas Bay, who is also a member of the executive board of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), added:
“The French jihadis, by their commitment alongside groups that declared war on our country, having committed ignoble attacks on our territory, these jihadists have deliberately chosen to break with France and there is no justification for granting them any protection.
“Rather than preparing for their return, the government should do everything possible to prevent them from returning to French territory! They must be judged by the competent Syrian and Iraqi authorities.”
Philippe subsequently did an about-face. In a March 6 interview with BFM TV, he said:
“We will not bring back anybody. The French doctrine has always been that the French fighters who are going to combat zones are fighting against us. When they are detained, they are to be judged and, if necessary, punished on the spot [in Iraq or Syria].”
The Wall Street Journal, in a recent editorial, “The West’s Foreign Fighter Problem,” noted that European governments face a “Catch-22” situation: either repatriate and prosecute their jihadis, or risk that they disappear off the radar and carry out new attacks in Europe. The Journal wrote:
“In February President Trump tweeted that the U.S. ‘is asking Britain, France, Germany and other European allies to take back’ their ISIS fighters and prosecute them at home. Indonesia, Morocco, Russia, and Sudan started the process months ago, but Western European governments are resisting.
“Bending to domestic political pressure, European politicians like U.K. Home Secretary Sajid Javid have vowed to reject ISIS members and even strip them of citizenship. German and French officials also publicly express skepticism about accepting imprisoned terrorists. Countries that criticized the U.S. over Guantanamo Bay now are turning a blind eye to the detention of their citizens elsewhere….
“The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have treated detainees humanely, but it can’t hold them forever. The group eventually will have no choice but to let the prisoners go — making a manageable security threat much worse. These battle-hardened fighters are especially dangerous given their practical knowledge and the respect they could command among would-be jihadists.
“Many released fighters would slip into Iraq, blend in with sympathetic Sunni populations, and prepare for an ISIS revival. Others could exploit security vacuums in Libya or Somalia or jump-start conflicts in other unstable regions. Perhaps the greatest risk is that some will return to the West undetected alongside refugees. Countries hesitant to take back their citizens now should realize they might return anyway—clandestinely.”
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Xn0YwU Tyler Durden
Negotiations between President Trump and President Xi drew the lion’s share of the market’s attention over the weekend, as the two world leaders reenacted their ‘truce’ from the prior G-20 summit, giving global equity markets the optimistic trade headlines they crave (In the US, stocks started the month at record highs).
Moving over to Europe, Boris Johnson’s quest to succeed Theresa May as the next occupant of No. 10 Downing Street has sopped up most of the political bandwidth. But though it didn’t garner quite as much attention, the first cracks in the facade of the center-right bloc that has controlled the EU for decades formed over the weekend as German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to win a consensus for her pick to succeed Jean-Claude Juncker as the next head of the European Commission.
As we explained back in May, Europe’s populist parties banked their strongest showing yet in last month’s EU Parliamentary vote – though readers wouldn’t know that if they simply absorbed their news from left-leaning outlets like the BBC and the Guardian, which tried to spin the results as a critical victory. Though the center-right coalition known as the EPP and center-left coalition S&D lost their combined majority in the Parliament, they retained a plurality of votes, while populist parties like Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party and Italy’s League made strong gains. Though establishment voices still outnumber populists, the blow dealt to the establishment’s coalition, we noted at the time, would make selecting the replacements for Juncker, ECB President Mario Draghi, and other senior bloc-level positions (most of which are filled via backroom wheeling and dealing, not by the voters themselves).
The new parliament’s term hasn’t even started yet, and already, Merkel has proven that she’s a lame duck (even after her latest attempt at “un-retirement”) who can’t be relied upon to secure the coronation of her coalition’s next round of picks. According to Bloomberg, after a marathon post-Osaka session in Brussels, Merkel failed to anoint Socialist Frans Timmermans the next chairman of the European Commission as her made-in-Osaka plan faced unprecedented backlash in Brussels.
One official quoted by BBG called the unexpected pushback to Merkel’s plan – which came both from her coalition partners as well as ‘smaller countries’ who took umbrage in the fact that they were excluded from a deal cooked up in Osaka – a “rebellion of rabbits.”
If there was one thing Angela Merkel didn’t factor into her plan to make Socialist Frans Timmermans the European Union’s next chief executive, it was what one official in the room called the “rebellion of rabbits.”
As she flew back from the G-20 in Japan, the German chancellor and veteran of many an EU marathon summit was fairly confident that the 58-year-old Dutchman would be accepted by the rest of the leaders gathering in Brussels to decide who to put forward as the next head of the European Commission.
Sure, it was going to be a long night, but she’s faced down worse. As the sun rose, there was no deal and shortly after noon it was decided to reconvene on Tuesday at 11 a.m. after almost 19 hours of going around in circles.It was something almost without precedent.
What became clear was that Merkel had miscalculated the degree of opposition on two fronts: from her own center-right political family that felt betrayed she gave away the top prize. And also the smaller countries that often feel unseen and bared their teeth at the what felt like a stitch-up cooked up in Osaka.
As dawn approached on Monday morning, Merkel was forced to hold one-on-one meetings with national leaders. And still, no deal materialized. Here’s how Bloomberg explained it.
For starters, the stage hadn’t been properly set. Deals and assurances weren’t put in place.Young powers smelled blood and growing intolerance for backroom deals – especially in an increasingly fragmented political landscape following May’s EU elections.
For Merkel, one year ago, this type of snub would have been unthinkable. But now that she has stepped down as party leader and set an end date for her historic chancellorship, the new blood in Europe is trying to make its voice heard.
But it wasn’t just the young bloods like Italy’s Giuseppe Conte who opposed Merkel’s deal…
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said he objected to a package of nominations that was formulated outside Brussels without consulting all members states: “If I sit here, I need the proposal to be made by components of the EU Council, I want the proposal to be discussed here, to be motivated here and to be confronted here.”
It may not have been of Merkel’s making, and she may have endorsed it only in the spirit of compromise, but the fierce opposition to the plan erodes the chancellor’s grip and authority — even if an accord is reached. Talks have now gone on longer than the 2015 Greek crunch meeting when she was at height of her power.
…Even longtime allies like Emmanuel Macron refused to come to her rescue.
And French President Emmanuel Macron was not coming to her rescue – their relationship has been showing signs of strain. “In the long run we must draw consequences of such a failure,” he said at the end of day two. “Our credibility is deeply stained by these endless meetings that lead to nothing. We’re giving an image of Europe that is not serious.”
Perhaps the Prime Ministerof Bulgaria best articulated the frustration of the EPP’s smaller coalition partners: “Nobody has the right to negotiate on our behalf, from EPP, whatever post they have.” Another described Merkel’s plan to anoint Timmermans as “half baked”.
Others lashed out at the chancellor, saying the impasse is a sign of how much of a lame duck she is. There was no plan to come up with a proposal that her own people, lawmakers at the EU parliament and other center-right leaders were going to shoot down in such an insulting manner.
“Merkel is leader of the CDU, not the EPP,” Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov told reporters. “Well many other things came from Osaka as well. But nobody has the right to negotiate on our behalf, from EPP, whatever post they have.”
Such open defiance to Merkel would have been unthinkable even a year ago. Today she appears a weakened figure, both at home and internationally, with her term ending in 2021.
Markets might not be paying attention now (the BBG headlines went largely unnoticed), but as talks over ECB President Mario Draghi’s replacement falter, we imagine that investors will soon be paying attention to the new era of political gridlock looming over Brussels.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Ly9F04 Tyler Durden
The most important trilateral at the G20 in Osaka was confined to a shoddy environment unworthy of Japan’s unrivaled aesthetic minimalism.
Japan excels in perfect planning and execution. So it’s hard to take this setup as an unfortunate “accident.” At least the – unofficial – Russia-India-China summit at the sidelines of the G20 transcended the fate of an interior decorator deserving to commit seppuku.
Leaders of these three countries met in virtual secrecy. The very few media representatives present in the shabby room were soon invited to leave. Presidents Putin, Xi and Modi were flanked by streamlined teams who barely found enough space to sit down. There were no leaks. Cynics would rather joke that the room may have been bugged anyway. After all, Xi is able to call Putin and Modi to Beijing anytime he wants to discuss serious business.
New Delhi is spinning that Modi took the initiative to meet in Osaka. That’s not exactly the case. Osaka is a culmination of a long process led by Xi and Putin to seduce Modi into a serious Eurasia integration triangular road map, consolidated at their previous meeting last month at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Bishkek.
Now Russia-India-China (RIC) is fully back in business; the next meeting is set for the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok in September.
In their introductory remarks, Putin, Xi and Modi made it clear that RIC is all about configuring, in Putin’s words, an “indivisible security architecture” for Eurasia.
Modi – very much in a Macron vein – stressed the multilateral effort to fight climate change, and complained that the global economy is being ruled by a “one-sided” dictate, emphasizing the necessity of a reform of the World Trade Organization.
Putin went a step ahead, insisting, “our countries are in favor of preserving the system of international relations, whose core is the UN Charter and the rule of law. We uphold such important principles of interstate relations as respect for sovereignty and non-interference in domestic affairs.”
Putin clearly underlined the geopolitical interconnection of the UN, BRICS, SCO and G20, plus “strengthening the authority of the WTO” and the International Monetary Fund as the “paragon of a modern and just multipolar world that denies sanctions as legitimate actions.”
The Russia-India-China contrast with the Trump administration could not be starker.
Those ‘tremendous assets’
BRICS, as it stands, is dead. There was an “official,” pro-forma BRICS meeting before the RIC. But it’s no secret both Putin and Xi completely distrust Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, regarded as a Trump neocolonial asset.
Ahead of his bilateral with Trump, Bolsonaro peddled Brazil’s mineral wealth, claiming the country may now export “niobium trinkets.”
Well, that’s certainly less controversial than the Brazilian military sherpa arrested in Spain for carrying industrial quantities of cocaine (36kg) in the presidential plane, definitely ruining the after-hours party time in Osaka.
Later on, Trump eagerly praised Brazil’s “tremendous assets,” now being fully privatized to the benefit of US companies.
Xi, as he addressed the BRICS meeting, denounced protectionism and called for a stronger WTO. BRICS nations, he said, should “increase our resilience and capability to cope with external risks.”
Putin went one up. Apart from denouncing “protectionist” tendencies in global trade, he called for bilateral trade in national currencies bypassing the US dollar – mirroring a commitment by the Russia-China strategic partnership.
Russia-China, via Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and head of the People’s Bank of China, Yi Gang, have signed an agreement to switch to rubles and yuan in bilateral trade, starting with energy and agriculture, and increase cross-currency settlements by 50% in the next few years.
There will be a concerted effort to increasingly bypass SWIFT, using the Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) and the Chinese Cross-Border Inter-Bank Payments System (CIPS).
Sooner or later Russia-China will entice India to join. Moscow has excellent bilateral relations with both Beijing and New Delhi, and is decisively playing the role of privileged messenger.
The mini-trade war against New Delhi launched by the Trump administration – including the loss of India’s special trade status and punishment for buying Russian S-400 missile systems – is quickening the pace of the process. India, by the way, will pay for the S-400s in euros.
There were no leaks whatsoever from Russia-India-China about Iran. But diplomats say that was a key theme of the discussion. Russia is already – covertly – helping Iran on myriad levels. India has an existential choice to make: keep buying Iranian oil or say goodbye to Iran’s strategic help, via the Chabahar port, to facilitate India’s mini-Silk Road to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
China sees Iran as a key node of the New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative. Russia sees Iran as essential for strategic stability in Southwest Asia – a key theme of the Putin-Trump bilateral, which also discussed Syria and Ukraine.
The leaders of RIC – Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping – hold a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka on June 28, 2019. Photo: Mikhail Klimentyev / Sputnik / AFP
RIC or Belt and Road?
Whatever the psyops tactics employed by Trump, Russia-India-China is also directly implicated in the massive short and long-term ramifications of the Trump-Xi bilateral in Osaka. The Big Picture is not going to change; the Trump administration is betting on re-routing global supply chains out of China, while Beijing advances full speed ahead with its Belt and Road Initiative.
Trump is heavily distrusted across Europe – as Brussels knows the EU is the target of another imminent trade war. Meanwhile, with over 60 nations committed to myriad Belt and Road projects, and with the Eurasia Economic Union also interlinked with Belt and Road, Beijing knows it’s just a matter of time before the whole of the EU hits the BRI highway.
There’s no evidence that India may suddenly join Belt and Road projects. The geopolitical lure of “Indo-Pacific” – essentially just another strategy for containment of China – looms large. That’s good old imperial Divide and Rule – and all the major players know it.
Yet India, now on the record, is starting to spin that Indo-Pacific is not “against somebody.” India getting deeper into RIC does not imply getting closer to Belt and Road.
It’s time for Modi to rise to the occasion; ultimately, he will decide which way the geoeconomic pendulum swings.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2XgebHE Tyler Durden
On Thursday, NASA announced that its next space mission was to send a quadcopter named Dragonfly to Saturn’s largest moon, called Titan, looking for signs of life. Dragonfly will launch in 2026 and land on Titan in 2034.
BIG NEWS: The next @NASASolarSystem mission is… #Dragonfly – a rotorcraft lander mission to Saturn’s largest moon Titan. This ocean world is the only moon in our solar system with a dense atmosphere & we’re so excited to see what Dragonfly discovers: https://t.co/whePqbuGBqpic.twitter.com/BQdMhSZfgP
The quadcopter will be looking for prebiotic chemical processes common on both Titan and Earth. Dragonfly will be the first time NASA operates a multi-rotor vehicle for space exploration on another planet; it is classified as rotorcraft, has eight rotors and flies like a drone. Flying will be difficult and will use a lot of energy. This is because of Titan’s atmosphere is four times thicker than Earth’s.
NASA says the moon is comparable to Earth in its youth, can provide evidence to how life has evolved over millions of years.
Dragonfly will operate on Titian for three years, will explore diverse environments across the moon. It has several sensors that will study how far prebiotic chemistry may have progressed.
“With the Dragonfly mission, NASA will once again do what no one else can do,” said NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine.
“Visiting this mysterious ocean world could revolutionize what we know about life in the universe. This cutting-edge mission would have been unthinkable even just a few years ago, but we’re now ready for Dragonfly’s amazing flight.”
Researchers used data from the Cassini-Huygens spacecraft that started its mission in 2004 and used sensors to scan through the moon’s haze. Cassini was able to detect clouds of methane and various geologic surfaces with only a few crater impacts.
NASA has said Titan’s atmosphere is “the most chemically complex in the solar system.”
Sometime in 2034, Dragonfly will land at the equatorial “Shangri-La” dune fields, which are similar to dunes in Namibia in southern Africa. For the next three years, Dragonfly will leapfrog around the moon, 5 miles at a time. At the end of its mission, it will reach the Selk impact crater, where there could be evidence of water and possible life.
Titan has a nitrogen-based atmosphere similar to Earth. However, Titan has clouds and rain of methane. The moon’s weather and surface processes could have enough to create life.
“Unveiling Titan is like reading a mystery novel,” said Dr. Charles Elachi, director of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and team leader for the radar instrument on Cassini. “Each time you flip the page you learn something new, but you don’t know the whole story until you’ve read the whole book. The story of Titan is unfolding right before our eyes, and what we are seeing is intriguing.”
While everyone is focused on Mars and the Moon – it seems by the mid-2030s – human beings will get a glimpse of what it’s like on one of Saturn’s 62 confirmed moons.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2JiQsNh Tyler Durden
