Tag: finance

As warnings about a “long dark winter” ahead intensify, with the NYT once again quoting scientists projecting death tolls and case tallies several times larger than what we have seen already, hospitalizations in the US have hit a new record high with more than 96k patients admitted to hospitals around the country.

However, even as daily tests now top 2 million, the number of new cases in the US is still falling, continuing an incipient trend that started just before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Source: COVID Tracking Project

Still, the alarming surge in hospitalizations over the past month would suggest that higher death tolls might be in store, as rural hospitals are overwhelmed by the crush of severely ill patients.

Meanwhile, the biggest news on the vaccine front has to do with Pfizer’s latest vaccine development: the company has officially filed for emergency use approval in the EU on Tuesday – after making the same request of authorities in the US last week.

Outside the US, Vietnam Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc has ordered the country’s aviation authority to halt international commercial flights after health authorities reported the country’s first local cases in almost three months, according to a posting on the government’s website. The premier – who added that  “rescue” flights bringing Vietnamese home from abroad should continue – instructed the Ho Chi Minh City government to quickly trace and isolate everyone who came in contact with those who tested positive this week.

Here’s a roundup of COVID news from around the world and in the US:

Ireland, one of the first countries in western Europe to return to lockdown in late October, began reopening its economy on Tuesday. Non-essential stores welcomed shoppers back. Restaurants will reopen later this week, as well as bars serving food. Bars that only serve drinks will remain closed (Source: Bloomberg).

Jean Stephenne, chairman of German biotech company CureVac NV, said he is confident the company’s Covid vaccine will be ready in the first quarter of 2021, and there is no reason to suggest its efficiency won’t match that of rivals. “We’re running a few months behind Pfizer, but confident on prospect for February-March,” he said (Source: Bloomberg).

The European Central Bank should focus on keeping financial conditions at current levels through the crisis rather than announcing a blockbuster stimulus package that beats market expectations, according to Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel (Source: Bloomberg).

It’s that time again.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are about to begin their quarterly CARES Act testimony on Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee.

In prepared testimony released last night, Powell said that “recent news on the vaccine front is very positive for the medium term.

Of course, tomorrow’s hearing will be the first appearance of Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin together since they disagreed over the expiration of several emergency Fed loan programs set up after the pandemic hit in March.

Powell’s prepared remarks seemed to echo a theme from a recent ECB Panel where Powell warned that “significant challenges and uncertainties remain, including timing, production and distribution, and efficacy across different groups.” Because of these challenges, “the outlook for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend, in large part, on the success of efforts to keep the virus in check.”

Watch live below:

 

With emini futures trading just shy of all time highs, and the cash S&P hitting record highs, the question is will momentum accelerate to the upside or will the infamous gamma gravity kick in? According to our friends at SpotGamma, along with the move higher in the S&P, gamma levels in the index have built to over $2bn notional (between both the SPX+SPY) “which typically indicates mean reverting market action in the context of upward – trending prices.”

Additionally the climbing such “walls of gamma” also often leads to a reduction in volatility: according to SpotGamma, with the VIX at 20 this morning, a break of that level will incentivize dealers “to buy deltas as those large DEC put positions decay.”

Finally, the largest gamma level on the board is now 3650 indicating that options positions are filling in around recent SPX prices.

This all sets up as a “constructive base” for a push to new record highs above 3700 as virtually nothing stands in the way of even more market levitation in a world where central banks will immediately step in and rescue traders at the first sign of trouble.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Is the narrative all “priced in?”

As discussed over the past couple of weeks, investors have gone “all in.” With the markets now extremely extended, what should investors do now?

On Saturday, I discussed the risks as we head into distribution season.

“Given the ongoing extremes of the market, the imbalances suggest a more cautious approach to portfolios currently. As such, we continued reducing our equity exposure, adjusting our bond holdings, and raising our cash levels.

As shown below, with fund managers carrying some of the lowest cash balances on record, we could see selling pressure to make distributions.”

However, while we may undoubtedly experience a pick up in volatility short-term due to distributions, longer-term the markets tend to be “forward-looking.” In theory, the markets are a “discounting mechanism” and start to adjust for expected outcomes.

Overly Optimistic

In this case, the market should be “pricing in” a recovery in economic growth and earnings as a “vaccine” begins to reduce the drag caused by the pandemic. However, with markets at all-time highs, investors have priced in “perfection,” leaving room for “disappointment.” 

For example, in Q4-2019, the S&P 500 finished the year at 3230.78, up 27.6% for the year. The basis of the rally was a trade deal (which never occurred,) tax cuts and massive levels of share buybacks. At that time, analysts estimated that reported earnings for the fiscal year 2020 would be roughly $167/share. Investors justified paying 19.35x earnings due to low-interest rates and expected strong economic growth.

Unfortunately, that didn’t occur. Instead, the economy got hit by a pandemic, a recession, and surging levels of unemployment. Nonetheless, due to massive government interventions, the market recovered to trading near all-time highs, up more than 11% for the year.

However, earnings for 2020 will not come in at $167/share, but rather closer to $93/share. Such is more than $74 lower than estimated, leaving investors holding assets that have doubled in valuation from 19x to 38x earnings.

Investors are currently rushing into already overvalued assets once again based on expectations that 2021 earnings will rise to $143.09/share. The problem is that while investors chased the market higher, 2021 estimates collapsed by roughly $30/share. 

The issue for investors is that historically analysts are roughly 30% too optimistic about the future.

Overly Optimistic

But it’s not just the analysts that are overly optimistic. In the short-term, investors cling to the idea that “fundamentals don’t matter.” Such is not entirely incorrect as “market momentum” is a hard thing to kill. When the “Fear Of Missing Out” overrides logic, the markets can make irrational moves. As noted in this week’s newsletter:

“You have to wonder precisely how much ‘gas is left in the tank’ when even ‘perma-bears’ are now bullish. Therefore, the question we should ask is ‘if everyone is in, who is left to buy?’”

That sentiment has pushed market speculation to more extreme levels, which have historically coincided with short- to intermediate-term corrections. As shown below, over the longer-term, such deviations from long-term means have rarely ended well for investors.

The deviation above the 225-day moving average is now at 15%, which is typically associated with at least short-term market peaks. (Last time was at the September highs)

The 52-week moving average deviation is just slightly below 15%. Such is historically associated with market peaks. (Last time at this level was January 2018, and at 13.5% in February 2020)

On a monthly basis, the deviation is at 17.5% of the 24-month moving average. While we have seen higher levels historically, the market is now in the territory of more meaningful market corrections.

While the markets can certainly go higher from here, the point is that they are unlikely to do so without a correction or consolidation, first.

Bullish Sentiment Abounds

Currently, investor sentiment is about as “bullish” as it can get. We produce a weekly fear/greed index for our RIAPRO subscribers (Free 30-day Trial)

The “Fear/Greed” gauge is how individual and professional investors are “positioning” themselves in the market based on their equity exposure. From a contrarian position, the higher the allocation to equities, to more likely the market is closer to a correction than not. (The gauge uses weekly closing data.)

However, even the CNN Fear/Greed gauge is pushing “bullish” levels.

Also, I have rarely seen a period where every sector and market is trading above its relative risk/reward range outside of Utilities. Again, not surprisingly, the deviations from long-term means are also at more historical levels.

None of this means a correction MUST occur. Much like “gasoline” stored in a tank, it requires a “catalyst” to ignite it.

Lots Of Risks To The Bullish Outlook

Many issues could provide such a “spark.”

1. The market has fully priced in whatever economic recovery we are likely to see near-term. 

2. There is clear evidence of weakening economic data and slower earnings growth.

3. Investors are counting on a “vaccine” to restore the economy to its previous strength fully. 

4. The markets have dismissed the negative impact of the economic shutdown.

5. Market participants have discounted the need the additional stimulus to sustain economic growth and recovery. 

6. The Fed is on the sidelines for now. Without additional Treasury issuance, the Fed has less ability to provide additional liquidity to the market. 

7. While the economy is indeed recovering, along with employment, it will still likely fall well short of pre-pandemic levels stifling future earnings growth and revenues.

8. Investors pay exceedingly high valuations based on a full earnings recovery, which is unlikely to be the case.

These are just some broad thoughts. However, when everyone is long equities and leveraged, it is an unexpected, exogenous event, which begins the rush for the exit.

What exactly will that catalyst be? No one knows, just as no one expected the “pandemic” in March.

Whatever the catalyst eventually is, the common refrain will be that “no one could have seen it coming.”

It’s Still A “Sellable Rally.” 

The reason we have and continue to suggest selling this rally is that, until the pattern changes, the market  exhibiting all traits of a “topping process.” 

• Weak participation

• Failure at long-term resistance

• Extreme bullish speculation

• Negative divergences in relative strength

We can show this in a long-term monthly chart.

Since 2009, whenever the monthly MACD “buy signal” was this elevated, it typically correlated to a short- to intermediate-term market peak. At each point, the “bullish story” was the same.

• Earnings are still strong.

• Economic data suggests the economy is growing strongly.

• It’s a “Goldilocks Economy” 

• The Fed is remaining “accommodative.” 

However, the primary warning signs to investors were also the same:

• A failure of the economy to live up to market expectations

• The rise in volatility

• A decline in bond yields.

• A shortfall in corporate profits and earnings

Calculating The Madness

Sir Isaac Newton once said:

“I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people..” 

As we head into year-end, we will be navigating the risk of overly extended and bullish markets against the seasonally strong end of year period. As discussed in our “3-Minutes” on Monday, we expect a short-term correction over the next couple of weeks as “distribution season” ensues.

However, following that, the annual “Santa Claus” rally into year-end is likely. We will act accordingly and increase equity risk in portfolios as needed.

Such is just how we manage money. We believe that over the long-term, capital preservation and risk management leads to better outcomes.

If you disagree, that is okay.

When the opportunity presents itself, and the “madness has subsided,” these are the questions we will ask ourselves before we add exposure to portfolios:

1. What is the expected return from current valuation levels?  (___%)

2. If I am wrong, given my current risk exposure, what is my potential downside?  (___%)

3. If #2 is greater than #1, then what actions should I be taking now?  (#2 – #1 = ___%)

How you answer those questions is entirely up to you.

What you do with the answers is also up to you.

You have to ask yourself how much of the “narrative” has already gotten priced into the market?

By looking at the data, it would be easy to assume the answer is “much.”

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned Tuesday that the virus pandemic’s resurgence across the Western world has weakened the global recovery and could worsen as governments withdraw or do not provide enough fiscal support. 

OECD’s latest Economic Outlook slashed its 2021 global growth forecast to 4.2% from 5% in September. The Paris-based organization said, “activity will continue to be restricted with social distancing and partly-closed borders most likely remaining through the first half of 2021.” 

It said, “the recovery will be uneven across countries and sectors and could lead to lasting changes in the world economy. Countries with effective testing, tracking and isolation programs and where effective vaccinations can be distributed rapidly should perform relatively well, but a high degree of uncertainty persists.”

Some of the largest downgrades in growth for 2021 were in Europe and the UK, with a forecast slashed to 4.2% from 7.6%. The US also had its growth projection cut to 3.2% from 4%. 

OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone warned, “if public health or fiscal policy falters, then we would see a loss of confidence and a much more depressing outlook.”

“The toll on the economy could be severe, in turn raising the risk of financial turmoil from fragile sovereigns and corporates, with global spillovers,” Boone continued.

The OECD said in its report that Europe and North America will be smaller contributors to global GDP next year as their recoveries flounder, while China will account for over one-third of the global expansion. 

The report made clear that governments need to continue supporting robust fiscal programs to avoid “fiscal cliffs.” Despite soaring public debt, the OECD was not concerned about mounting debt loads because borrowing costs are low. 

The deployment of COVID-19 vaccines could be one of the significant factors in determining the global recovery trajectory next year. A successful deployment of the vaccine would allow governments to ease strict lockdowns and fully reopen economies. 

With so much hope pinned on a successful vaccine deployment, any delays could produce significant setbacks. 

“Despite the huge policy band-aid, and even in an upside scenario, the pandemic will have damaged the socio-economic fabric of countries worldwide,” Boone warned.

German police say 2 killed, several injured in Trier when car hits pedestrians; the driver has been arrested.

Whether or not this is another terror attack is uncertain, but local media reports claim that 10 or more people might have been injured,. The attack recalls the 2016 Nice truck attack, which killed more than 80 people on a crowded promenade on Bastille Day.

BREAKING – Car plows through pedestrians in the German city of Trier, at least 2 dead, 10 injured. The police rammed the car and arrested the driver.pic.twitter.com/oQHM83arwv

— Disclose.tv 🚨 (@disclosetv) December 1, 2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Dream a little dream for me

She’s ba-aaack.

Janet Yellen, now officially named as Biden’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, joined Twitter yesterday. (She was hardly going to turn up on Parler.) “We face great challenges as a country right now,” she tweeted. “To recover, we must restore the American dream – a society where each person can rise to their potential and dream even bigger for their children. As Treasury Secretary, I will work every day towards rebuilding that dream for all.” Pass the motherhood and apple pie, please.

What is the American Dream, exactly? Like America, it has changed over the years. Once, it was all Puritans dreaming of being able to live their own religious truth far from the controls of Europe; the “pursuit of happiness” was written into the Declaration of Independence along with life and liberty; in the 19th century, the Dream for European immigrants was political freedom and the absence of stifling aristocracy; then the opportunities of the Frontier; then chasing free money in the form of Californian gold; by 1931, in the teeth of the Great Depression, it was that “life should be better and richer and fuller for everyone, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement” regardless of social class or circumstances of birth”; and to Martin Luther King, Jr. in the 1960s, it was spreading those opportunities to *all* US citizens. In 2020 some now argue: “If anyone can be said to embody the American Dream, it’s Kim Kardashian West.”

What part of the American Dream is Yellen offering to recover? Presumably not the gold rush, or Bitcoin, but one could see that as a possible side-effect if you are in that camp: will she ever say “There will never be a fiscal crisis in my lifetime”?

What about the Pursuit of Happiness? But from the Treasury? Unlikely. Or religious or political liberty? Wrong portfolio. More seriously, how about socioeconomic mobility, which has been withering in the US? Or good middle-class jobs, which have also been withering? If so, it would be useful to get some details soon of exactly how this will be done, and against the backdrop of the current Congress, not a dream one.

Perhaps owning one’s own home? That is often seen as a key part of the American Dream. Yet didn’t we try that in the early 2000s – and how did that end up? Wouldn’t that today require much lower house prices, or much higher wages, neither of which Yellen did much to cheerlead while at the Fed? (Not that anyone else has either, to be fair.) Lower rates have surely done all they can for their part on housing affordability, and yet rates have trended in the same direction as the American Dream for many people.

A true return of the American Dream would be bearish for bonds and bullish for the USD – unless everyone else globally is also living that Dream of middle-class jobs and wage inflation and higher rates. They aren’t – which is everyone looks to America in the first place. Even the new RCEP, for example, is a mainly a collection of net exporters who mainly net export to the US (or Europe). Let’s also recall the last Fed tightening cycle and the 2013 Taper Tantrum: they were more of a global nightmare, weren’t they? The rest of the world is keen on keeping up with Keeping up with Kardashians, but not on Keeping up with the Keynesians when they raise rates. As J. G. Ballard said decades ago,

“The American Dream has run out of gas. The car has stopped. It no longer supplies the world with its images, its dreams, its fantasies. No more. It’s over. It supplies the world with its nightmares now: the Kennedy assassination, Watergate, Vietnam.”

One might say the same about Fed tightening cycles: they may be over (and they are a US nightmare).

Of course, one of the reasons people still talk about the American Dream is because there aren’t many global alternatives. True, Canada and Australia and New Zealand all offer their own versions, but on a small scale with exclusive entry requirements too sometimes. But is there a British Dream other than “Brexit means Brexit”, or a good cup of tea, or pubs reopening? And is there an official European Dream other than ‘more Europe’? What about the Chinese Dream talked of since 2013? This seems to have many interpretations, but one is “a collectivist dream, for which everybody, with hard work, determination, and bravery, cooperate to make China (not the individual) a great nation.” Not really the same kind of global message as in the US – though of global significance.

Indeed, Australia just experienced a very “determined” message from the Global Times via an editorial titled ‘China’s goodwill futile with evil Australia’, which following a spat over China’s use of what was seen as offensive imagery of an Australian soldier, states: “Australia’s evil acts toward China have made Chinese society not only surprised, but also disgusted. Many Chinese people feel as if they have swallowed a fly when hearing about Australia….How arrogant and shameless the Morrison government is!…Australia treats China’s goodwill with evil. It is not worthy to argue with it. If it does not want to do business with China, so be it. Its politics, military and culture should stay far away from China – let’s assume the two countries are not on the same planet. As a warhound of the US, Australia should restrain its arrogance. Particularly, its warships must not come to China’s coastal areas to flex muscles, or else it will swallow the bitter pills.”)

The RBA also failed to mention any of this backdrop at its on-hold meeting today, focusing instead on vaccine and recovery hopes. That said, it added: “For its part, the Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2-3% target range. For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently. This will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market. Given the outlook, the Board is not expecting to increase the cash rate for at least 3 years.” So how are we going to recover that Aussie dream of a tight labour market and wage growth and good middle-class jobs, to say nothing of affordable homes (as CoreLogic house prices jumped 0.7% m/m in November)?

Markets continue to stay in their own little dream-world through all of this; or they are living the dream. Are they right to do so? For now, perhaps. Longer term, dream on!

That’s the thing about dreams. Eventually you wake up. And sometimes in a cold sweat.

Today in “affirmative action for public company boards” news…

In a move that does little to help either diversity or equality, NASDAQ is now pushing for SEC approval of a rule that would require public companies on its exchange to have at least one woman director and one “diverse” director – meaning a director that self-identifies as an underrepresented minority or LGBTQ. You know, like how Elizabeth Warren “self-identified” as Native American.

Oddly enough, there’s still no requirement that Board Members need to know how to read financial statements. But, we digress.

The exchange is also pushing for its more than 3,000 companies to be forced to report “data on board diversity” or “face consequences”, including having to publicly explain why they haven’t done so. Also known as public shaming. 

“Under the proposal, all Nasdaq-listed companies will be required to publicly disclose board-level diversity statistics through Nasdaq’s proposed disclosure framework within one year of the SEC’s approval of the listing rule,” a NASDAQ PR reads.

“To give companies time to comply, they will need to publicly disclose their board diversity data within a year of S.E.C. approval, and have at least one woman or diverse director within two years. Bigger companies will be expected to have one of each type of director within four years,” DealBook reported this morning. 

Even more frightening is the fact that NASDAQ wants to impose these rules on private companies as well. Adena Friedman, Nasdaq’s CEO, said:  “The ideal outcome would be for the S.E.C. to take a role here. They could actually apply it to public and private companies because they oversee the private equity industry as well.”

“Our goal with this proposal is to provide a transparent framework for Nasdaq-listed companies to present their board composition and diversity philosophy effectively to all stakeholders; we believe this listing rule is one step in a broader journey to achieve inclusive representation across corporate America,” she continued.​

It was not immediately clear how anyone can uniformly impose such gratuitous virtue signalling across the millions of private mom and pop companies across America, but whatever.

And what would any good diversity initiative be without introducing a corporate partnership to implement it, where someone gets paid for enabling this latest virtue signaling lunacy. “Nasdaq will also introduce a partnership with Equilar, the leading provider of corporate leadership data solutions, to aid Nasdaq-listed companies with board composition planning challenges,” its PR says.

Zero Hedge looked up Equilar’s Board of Directors and found that out of its 5 members, there doesn’t appear to be a person of color or openly LGBTQ member. We wonder if they will use their own “corporate leadership solutions” to diversify their own board further. 

Not at all surprising, currently 75% of NASDAQ companies do not meet the new requirements. Which means that instead of making life easier for businesses, the regulations will unleash countless amounts of red tape, new meetings and diversity seminars that will slow down business and infringe upon efficiency at each organization they “save”. 

The irony of the new rule is, of course, that it limits a company’s ability to select qualified/interested candidates to the pre-determined race and sex of NASDAQ’s choosing.

The good news is that Elizabeth Warren’s 1/2000th Native American heritage may find her a post-Congress job on the board of Goldman Sachs a little bit quicker.

The bad news is we now have super-duper-useful indexes like the “LGBT-350”, a market-cap weighted basket of LGBT-inclusive companies. Because everyone knows investing is all about diversity and ESG, and no longer about generating alpha.

INBOX: Credit Suisse introduces the “LGBT-350”, a market-cap weighted basket of LGBT-inclusive companies.

Top components: pic.twitter.com/xvuu8SV4bs

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) December 1, 2020

Authored by Andrea Widburg via AmericanThinker.com,

In the early days of television, Sheila Kuehl had a role in a now forgotten show, The Many Loves of Dobie Gillis, which ended in 1963.  She then became a leftist, a lawyer, and a politician.  Despite the long interval between her Hollywood years and today, Kuehl still clings to that lampooned Hollywood notion about stars versus “the little people.”  How else can one explain that, after railing against restaurants and voting to shut them down, Kuehl promptly went to a nice restaurant for dinner?

During the lockdown, politicians continued to draw their taxpayer-funded paychecks and telecommute from the comfort of their homes.  Meanwhile, they targeted small businesses that depend on dealings with the public.  More than any other business, restaurants were in Democrat politicians’ crosshairs.

As of mid-September, more than 100,000 restaurants had closed across America.  In the two months since then, it’s certain that several thousand more have closed.  The San Francisco Chronicle, for example, runs a regular column identifying restaurants that are gone.

Every closed restaurant represents several people’s lives going down the drain.  The owner who sank all of his money in the restaurant, the employees who worked there, the suppliers who were dependent on its custom, and the surrounding stores who counted on the foot traffic it brought — all of it’s gone.  And I might add, there’s no reason to believe that these horrific losses made a damned bit of difference to the course of a virus that is relentlessly working its way through the population.

While the people have suffered, the politicians imposing this suffering, like European royalty of old, have flaunted their special status.

Denver’s mayor, Michael Hancock, flew to his family within 30 minutes of telling Denver citizens to stay home for Thanksgiving.

Andrew Cuomo, having reinstated the lockdown across New York, boasted about his family coming home for Thanksgiving.

Illinois’s Governor J.B. Pritzker, another Democrat millionaire, was happy to see his family travel during the height of the spring lockdown.

Pennsylvania’s health secretary, “Rachel” Levine, who leftists pretend is not a mentally ill man telling people he’s a woman, forced sick people into nursing homes in May, even as he secretly removed his own mother.  Levine, incidentally, is being floated as a possible surgeon general.  That’s just what America needs: a hypocritical, self-entitled, mentally ill surgeon general.

And in California, Governor Gavin Newsom started by making headlines for imposing ridiculously stringent lockdown rules on people’s Thanksgiving celebrations, including requiring outdoor dining only, suggesting masks throughout the meal, giving people limited permission to use the bathroom, and cracking down on singing.

Then, just before Thanksgiving, photos emerged of Newsom and his wife having an indoor dinner with a large crowd of lobbyists at the über-expensive French Laundry in Napa Valley.  None of the guests was masked.  Afterward, Newsom gave a fake apology because Democrats are so certain that they’ve achieved perpetual power that they don’t even bother anymore to go through the motions of political humility.

The latest politician who can’t be bothered with the rules she imposes on little people is former Hollywood actress Sheila Kuehl:  the Los Angeles County Supervisor, a Democrat, ate outdoors at Il Forno Trattoria in Santa Monica, just hours after casting the deciding vote to ban all outdoor dining in the county last week.

You can watch my 7pm live report on this in the link above. Tonight at 10pm I’ll have a full story about this, including reaction from local restaurant owners, and fellow L.A. County Supervisor Janice Hahn, who did not support the decision to ban outdoor dining. @FOXLA

— Bill Melugin (@BillFOXLA) December 1, 2020

Kuehl said during a recent Board of Supervisors meeting that outdoor dining is “a most dangerous situation,” saying she felt there was a risk of transmission of the virus from unmasked customers to their masked waiters and waitresses.

“This is a serious health emergency and we must take it seriously,” Kuehl said.

“The servers are not protected from us, and they’re not protected from their other tables that they’re serving at that particular time, plus all the hours in which they’re working.”

According to Kuehl, she ate there one last time before she destroyed it.  Okay, I made up the part about destroying it, but her spokesperson said the meal was a fond farewell. 

“She did dine al fresco at Il Forno on the very last day it was permissible,” a spokesperson for Kuehl told Fox 11 after the broadcaster received tips about what happened.

“She loves Il Forno, has been saddened to see it, like so many restaurants, suffer from a decline in revenue. She ate there, taking appropriate precautions, and sadly will not dine there again until our Public Health Orders permit.”

But what about Kuehl’s claim that such dining was “a most dangerous situation”?  Apparently, it’s dangerous only for the little people.

These people are disgusting.  I used to think voters were fools who kept voting them in.  I now suspect that voters were naïve and credulous for believing that elections are fair.  In California, at least, a lot of people probably got into office “the Dominion way.”  We need to clean up elections and throw these people to the curb.

After testing new record highs overnight, just shy of $20,000, Bitcoin has tumbled $2000 this morning…

Source: Bloomberg

The entire crypto space is also getting whacked…

Source: Bloomberg

And at the same time, gold has surged back above $1800, erasing last week’s sudden plunge…

 

Is the gold-to-bitcoin rotation unwinding?

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, Ethereum also took a big hit…

Source: Bloomberg

As Ethereum 2.0  Beacon Chain goes live. As CoinDesk notes, today’s launch concludes the opening act, or “Phase 0,” of Ethereum’s consensus mechanism transition, which will see the network – whose native cryptocurrency, ether, is worth $70 billion by market cap – fundamentally change how it settles payments while in motion.

“The launch of the beacon chain is a huge accomplishment and lays the foundation for Ethereum’s more scalable, secure, and sustainable home,” Ethereum Foundation researcher Danny Ryan told CoinDesk in an email. “There is still much work to do, but today we celebrate.”

The Beacon Chain will be the backbone of a new Ethereum blockchain, a network intended to keep pace with PayPal and Visa in terms of processing speed, while rivaling them in terms of transparency and payment finality.

As CoinTelegraph points out, the transition to PoS paves the way for future planned upgrades to be implemented, such as sharding to improve scalability.

Currently staked ETH are likely to be locked up until Phase 1.5 of the Ethereum 2.0 rollout, currently planned for late 2021 or early 2022. This will see the current Ethereum mainnet merge with the new beacon chain and sharding system.

Anticipation for the Eth2 launch has been building throughout 2020, and has been reflected in the price of Ether, which started the year at just $130 but is currently riding high at over $600.

The launch will be especially welcomed by those in the decentralized finance community. The explosion of DeFi during 2020 saw a huge increase in traffic and gas fees on the Ethereum network.

And it appears retail is starting to show interest again as Google searches for Bitcoin Price are at two year highs…

And as institutional interest also picks up, CoinTelegraph notes that  “PlanB,” the pseudonymous creator of the stock-to-flow-based family of Bitcoin price models, said on Dec. 1 that all was still going to plan after the most recent halving event in May.

“My fellow Bitcoiners, the bull market is upon us,” he declared, producing the latest version of his Stock-to-Flow Cross-Asset (S2FX) chart showing BTC/USD posting its highest-ever monthly close.

Stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) historical chart. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

 PlanB believes that recent gains mark just the start of Bitcoin’s next phase, a theory which would see Bitcoin simply follow its historical behavior.

“Like clockwork November red dot closed above all other red dots .. at $19,700 .. a new Bitcoin ATH. This is just the beginning. We will see volatility (e.g. -35%), but also new ATHs. Enjoy the ride!” he added.