Tag: finance

The number of US states that have decided to ditch mask restrictions in defiance of the CDC’s official guidelines, which have barely budged since the start of the pandemic, has risen to 12, as more governors recognize the political necessity of allowing Americans to try and return to some semblance of normalcy, ABC News reports.

For the record, the CDC continues to recommend that masks should be worn in areas of substantial or high transmission – which is practically all of the US, by their standards – and in educational settings.

Across the US, nearly 99% of US counties are still reporting high enough levels of community transmission to qualify as a substantial locus of community spread.

“We’re not quite there yet,” CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told radio station WYPR this week. The CDC “still recommends that all schools encourage students to wear well-fitting masks consistently and while indoors. And that’s consistent with our guidance that still also recommends that people mask in public indoor settings in areas of high or substantial transmission.”

“We owe it to our children to make sure that they can safely stay in school. Right now, that includes masking. We’ve seen outbreaks that have occurred in communities where students were not masked in schools and had to close…[a]nd much of our guidance is based on the amount of community transmission,” Walensky added.

Since Monday, 11 states have announced changes to their statewide masking policies, with some governors moving to end universal indoor and outdoor mask mandates, while others have lifted statewide face-covering requirements for schools:

Here’s a rundown of the states that have locked down so far. As we have previously reported, New York and New Jersey have already announced their plans to roll back mask mandates.

But details vary – sometimes widely – between states.

California

Universal indoor mask mandate: Expires on Feb. 15

School indoor mask mandate: Remains in place

California’s indoor mask mandate is set to expire Feb. 15, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced on Twitter Monday, citing declining infection and hospitalization rates across the state for his decision.

However, unvaccinated people will still be required to wear masks indoors, the governor wrote.

Following the announcement from the state, Los Angeles County health officials said they would keep the county’s mask mandate in place for the time being.

LA County Department of Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer said on Tuesday that the county’s masking requirement will be lifted for outdoor “mega” events when daily hospitalizations drop below 2,500 for seven consecutive days.

In order for the indoor mask mandate to be lifted, Los Angeles County must reach a “moderate” rate of transmission for two consecutive weeks, or for the COVID-19 vaccine to be made available to children ages 6 months to 4 years for at least eight weeks. In addition, the health department said there must be no emerging reports of significantly circulating new variants that threaten vaccine efficacy.

Masks will also be required at Sunday’s Super Bowl LVI, hosted in Los Angeles.

Connecticut

School indoor mask mandate: Expires on Feb. 28

On Monday, Gov. Ned Lamont announced that beginning Feb. 28, the state of Connecticut would no longer require masking in schools and child care facilities.

“I think today, with boosters, given vaccines, given the N95 masks, you’re in a better position to keep yourself safe. Your child is in a better ‘position to keep him or herself safe,” said Lamont, who noted that the decision to end the mandate followed extensive discussions with neighboring governors.

Mask mandates will still exist in homeless shelters, corrections facilities and in certain health care facilities, state officials said.

“I think this is the right decision at the right time,” Lamont added. “We now know how to live with this, I think it’s going to be milder and less impactful.”

Delaware

Universal indoor mask mandate: Expires on Feb. 11 School indoor mask mandate: Expires on March 31

School mask mandate: ends to Feb. 11.

“We’re in a much better place than we were several weeks ago in the middle of the Omicron surge of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations,” Gov. John Carney said in a statement on Monday. “I want to be clear about this point — COVID is still circulating in our communities. And the virus still poses a risk of serious illness, particularly among those who are not up to date on their vaccinations. But we have the tools to keep ourselves and each other safe.”

The governor has also temporarily extended the mask requirement for K-12 schools and child care facilities in an effort to give parents more time ​to get their children vaccinated. However, that requirement is expected to expire March 31.

Illinois

Universal indoor mask mandate: Expires by Feb. 28

School indoor mask mandate: School mandate embroiled in court battle Illinois is expected to lift its indoor mask mandate by the end of the month, Gov. J.B. Pritzker announced this week. “We are on track to come out on the other side of this latest COVID storm in better shape than even the doctors expected,” Pritzker said. “If these trends continue, and we expect them to, then on Monday, Feb. 28, we will lift the indoor mask requirement for the state of Illinois.”

Pritzker stressed it will be important for local jurisdictions to implement mask requirements, if they feel that is right for their COVID-19 community. Health officials said that masks are still “highly recommended,” and face coverings will still be required on public transportation, and in congregant and long-term care facilities. Chicago announced on Wednesday that should the city’s COVID-19 metrics continue to decline, the city will plan to lift COVID-19 restrictions at the end of the month. At this time, the state’s mask requirement for schools remains embroiled in a court battle, after a temporary restraining order was placed on the mandate last week. However, the governor has vowed to keep fighting for the mandate.

Massachusetts

School indoor mask mandate: Expires on Feb. 28

Effective Feb. 28, Massachusetts will end its statewide school mask mandate, Gov. Charlie Baker announced on Wednesday.

“Given the extremely low risk for young people, the widespread availability and the proven effectiveness of vaccines and the distribution of accurate test protocols and tests, it is time to give our kids a sense of normalcy and lift the mask mandate on a statewide basis for schools,” Baker said. “Everyone now has the tools and the knowledge to stay safe. … It’s time to give our kids a sense of normalcy.”

The governor cited the state’s high vaccination rate as part of the reasoning behind his decision. He added that Massachusetts ranks second in the nation for the highest share of vaccinated children.

Earlier this week, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu said that at this time, the city’s mask mandate, which also includes schools, will remain in place.

“The mask mandate, we are not yet there in terms of pulling,” Wu said. “We had lots of conversations about other policies in place.”

Nevada

Universal indoor mask mandate: Expired on Feb 10 School indoor mask mandate: Expired on Feb 10

Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak announced on Thursday that he would lift both the state’s universal and school mask mandates, effective immediately.

“Some people think we were ready long ago, some people think we’re not ready yet,” Sisolak said. “I feel now is the appropriate time to move forward.”

Masks will still be required in certain indoor settings, including hospitals, clinics and long-term care facilities, as well as in on public and school buses.

Following the governor’s announcement, the Clark County School District, which includes Las Vegas, announced that by the end of the day on Thursday, masks would no longer be required on district campuses.

New Jersey

School indoor mask mandate: Expires on March 7.

On Monday, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy formally announced that the state’s mask mandate for schools and child care facilities would be lifted March 7.

“We can responsibly take this step given the continuing drop in new cases and hospitalizations from omicron,” said Murphy. “Our reality is dramatically different than a lot of other states right now.”

New Jersey’s mask guidance for schools and child care facilities will be updated in the coming week “to help school districts make the best decisions as to whether and when masks should be worn,” according to Murphy.

“We can responsibly take this step given the continuing drop in new cases and hospitalizations from omicron,” said Murphy. “Our reality is dramatically different than a lot of other states right now.”

New Jersey’s mask guidance for schools and child care facilities will be updated in the coming week “to help school districts make the best decisions as to whether and when masks should be worn,” according to Murphy.

New York

Universal indoor mask mandate: Expired on Feb. 10

School indoor mask mandate: Remains in place

On Thursday, New York lifted its universal indoor mask mandate. The mandate will remain in effect at homeless and domestic violence shelters, state-regulated health care centers, state-run nursing homes, correctional facilities and in schools and day cares. In addition, mask use will remain in effect on public transportation, including buses, trains, subways and planes.

“This is what we’ve been waiting for, tremendous progress after two long years,” Gov. Kathy Hochul said during a press conference on Tuesday. “We had a mask or vax requirement for businesses … and at this time we say it is the right decision to lift this mandate.” At this time, the state’s indoor masking requirement for schools will remain in place. After the February break, officials will make an assessment on whether it is safe for the mandate in schools to be rescinded, Hochul said.

Oregon

Universal indoor mask mandate: Expires by March 31

School indoor mask mandate: Expires on March 31

The Oregon Health Authority announced this week it would remove the state’s general mask requirements for indoor public places by March 31, at the latest.

“We should see COVID-19 hospitalizations drop by the end of March because so many Oregonians are wearing masks and taking other steps to protect themselves and each other, such as getting a booster shot or vaccinating their children. At that point, it will be safer to lift mask requirements,” Dr. Dean Sidelinger, health officer and state epidemiologist, said in a statement on Monday.

Mask requirements for schools will also be lifted on March 31.

Rhode Island

Universal indoor mask mandate: Expires on Feb. 11

School indoor mask mandate: Expires on March 4

Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee announced this week that its mask or proof of vaccination protocol for certain indoor public settings would be lifted Feb. 11.

“We know that as a state and a country, we have to learn how to manage COVID, as we move from a pandemic to an endemic stage of the virus,” McKee said during a press conference on Wednesday.

The state’s school mask mandate will be extended until March 4, when school masking policies will be decided by individual school districts.

“We can safely make this shift, which will also put us in line with other New England states,” McKee added. “Over the next several weeks, before this change takes effect, we expect that numbers will continue to decline, putting us in a strong position to transition to local decision-making on school masks.”

McKee said that officials want to give school districts additional time for parents to get their children vaccinated.

Washington

Universal outdoor mask mandate: Expires on Feb. 18

Universal indoor mask mandate: Remains in effect

School indoor mask mandate: Remains in effect

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee announced on Wednesday that the state would lift its outdoor mask mandate, following declining infection rates.

However, at this time, the state’s indoor masking mandate will remain in effect.

“Today is not the day to lift all of the masking requirements,” Inslee said during a press conference. “It will be, and when we can do this, it is no longer a matter of ‘if,’ it is a question of ‘when.'”

The governor said he expects to have further guidance on indoor mask mandates next week.

* * *

But just because a growing number of states are ditching mask mandates doesn’t mean that every town or county within those states will go along. Indeed, LA County – America’s second-most-populous – has already declared its resistance to the wave of rollbacks, as its SJW head of public health Barbara Ferrer warns it could be weeks (or even months) before the county finally decides to roll back mask-related restrictions.

Via Global Macro Monitor,

The CPI came in hot, hot, hot for January at 0.6 percent, exceeding expectations. Yet the Fed is still pumping, adding a total of $123 billion into the economy in 2022, which should end soon.

What the heck? Has the Fed morphed into the old Banco Central de Argentina?

It’s not the supply chain, Stupid!

The supply chain has been swamped and overloaded with too much demand. Ports are overwhelmed by too much traffic.

Sure, some price inflation results from real supply shocks, but this is primarily driven by excess demand, instigated by the overstaying of too much stimulus. We certainly agree that the initial stimulus package was needed, but it was very poorly structured. Come on, man, Wall Streeters taking PPP loans while many small businesses were shut out?

Semiconductor Shortage

Market wide semiconductor shortage? Think again.

Look at worldwide semi revenues, up 23.7 percent year-on-year in November. Some of that is inflation, but the quantity of semis produced continues to expand quite rapidly.

No doubt, in a few sectors there is a real supply shock where the quanity of certain semiconductor products are falling. Talk to most any semiconductor CEO and he/she will say the same.

Why Is The Fed Dragging Their Feet?

I think the Fed fears what we fear.

The U.S. economy is way too dependent on the asset markets with a stock market capitalization north of 2x GDP the last time we looked, which the Fed is mainly responsible for, by the way. That puts the U.S. economy in an unstable equilibrium.

If the Fed slams the oven door too hard, the soufflé collapses in on itself..

This is illustrated in the following chart, which we have posted several times.

The Fed needs to reach for the Draino, and fast, like several months ago.  

When it comes to the geopolitical hot spot du jour, every day it Groundhog Dog, with a random daily leak out of the deep state through its preferred mouthpieces hinting that a Russian invasion on Ukraine is imminent even if there is zero evidence confirming this, and today was no different…

oil HOD on latest “invasion is imminent” rumor spread by deep state

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 11, 2022

… only today the deep state has been especially persistent and moment ago PBS reported that according to three (deep state) officials, “the U.S. believes Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and communicated those plans to the Russian military,” with two admin officials saying they “expect the invasion to begin next week—echoing what Secretary of State Blinken has said.”

NEWS: The U.S. believes Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and communicated those plans to the Russian military, three officials tell @nickschifrin. Two admin officials say they expect the invasion to begin next week—echoing what Secretary of State Blinken has said.

— Geoff Bennett (@GeoffRBennett) February 11, 2022

And just so Americans can focus on anything but Biden’s catastrophic tenure, the PBS is throwing the kitchen sink noting that defense officials anticipate a “horrific, bloody campaign that begins with two days of bombardment and electronic warfare, followed by an invasion, with the possible goal of regime change.” The North Atlantic Council – which as everyone knows is the hub of the deep state – was reportedly briefed on this new intel today, which means that a false flag attack by the CIA is now imminent.

More via @nickschifrin : Defense officials anticipate a horrific, bloody campaign that begins with two days of bombardment and electronic warfare, followed by an invasion, with the possible goal of regime change. The North Atlantic Council was briefed on this new intel today.

— Geoff Bennett (@GeoffRBennett) February 11, 2022

While this is just the latest in a laughable series of report originating from the US deep state which have little if any linkage to reality, the fact that the US is now committed to a strategy that sees Russia “invade” even if it means responding to a US-orchestrated false flag is why oil has just exploded higher, with WTI soaring above $94 and Brent above $95 for the first time since 2014…

… and the Ruble tumbling…

… as Biden now has two scapegoats to explain away the ongoing economic disaster: blame Putin for the explosion in gasoline prices and blame the Canadian truckers for the imminent US recession.
 

Spot prices for rare earth metals have risen due to dwindling stockpiles and demand from the parabolic growth in the electrification of vehicles. One year ago, we first told readers how catalytic converter theft was erupting nationwide because the car’s exhaust system has an extensive amount of platinum, palladium, and rhodium. Law enforcement and local governments cracked down on thieves by making it near impossible for scrappers to sell catalytic converters. However, thieves are evolving as they now target copper-rich Tesla Supercharger stations. 

Electrek’s Fred Lambert reports thieves cut the heavy gauge charging cables at all eight stalls of a new Tesla Supercharger station in Oakhurst, California last Friday. Tesla Motors Club forum users first pointed out the “vandalism.” Here are eight stalls with no charging cables. 

This photo reveals why thieves were likely after the cables: copper. 

“That’s definitely vandalism. Since the cables are missing, I’m guessing it’s someone looking to sell the copper for scrap,” one user on the Tesla forum said, adding these “cables are expensive – At least a couple hundred dollars each, not to mention the time/money to send a tech out there to replace them. This will cost Tesla at least a couple thousand dollars to fix and if sold for scrap, they might get a hundred dollars out of it, probably less given that these are V3 cables and relatively lightweight.” 

There are 908 and counting Tesla Supercharger stations in the US that are sitting ducks. Someone better advise Tesla to hire private security guards to deter cable thefts (or there will be a lot of angry Tesla drivers running out of charge across America). 

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com, 

US military officials told reporters on Thursday that there could have been more civilian casualties than initially thought in the recent special operations forces raid in northwest Syria that targeted an ISIS leader.

When the raid first happened, President Biden and the Pentagon said ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi blew up himself, his wife, and two children on the third floor of a building once US forces arrived. But other sources said at least 13 people were killed. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said among the 13 killed were four children and three women.

The military officials admitted Thursday that they don’t know for certain if al-Qurayshi detonated the bomb that caused the explosion. They insist the blast was caused by someone in the building and wasn’t the fault of the US, but they admitted there is no video footage of the raid.

The officials also said they couldn’t rule out that more people than al-Qurayshi and his family died. They noted that “multiple bodies” ended up under rubble, and the US forces didn’t have time to count them.

The officials said a lower-level ISIS member was on the second floor of the building with five children. The US forces killed the ISIS fighter and his wife in a gun battle and were able to evacuate four of the children, but a toddler was found dead, and the cause of death was not clear.

The raid came amid heightened scrutiny over the high number of civilian casualties caused by US operations in the Middle East. Thursday’s briefing shows that the White House was not being truthful about the raid on al-Qurayshi right after it happened.

Psaki to reporter asking about those “skeptical” about civilians killed in raid: “Skeptical of the U.S. military’s assessment when they went and took out… the leader of ISIS, that they are not providing accurate information, and ISIS is providing accurate information?” pic.twitter.com/7g90mc1x1U

— Tommy moderna-vaX-Topher (@tommyxtopher) February 3, 2022

On the day the raid was announced, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said it was “confirmed” that al-Qurayshi blew himself up and scoffed at a reporter who asked for evidence. The reporter mentioned that some people are ‘skeptical” about US claims when it comes to civilian casualties. Psaki fired back and asked if the skeptics thought ISIS was providing more accurate information than the US military.

“Well, not ISIS, but, I mean, the US has not always been straightforward about what happens with civilians. And, I mean, that is a fact,” the reporter responded.

Even CNN is being forced to admit that the majority of Americans are deeply unimpressed with President Biden. 

With inflation continuing to soar – the latest numbers released this week have only confirmed that price pressures are spiraling out of control – 6 out of 10 Americans are telling pollsters that there’s literally nothing Biden has done during his presidency that they are happy with. The findings stem from a CNN Poll conducted by SSRS in January and February.

The latest poll numbers confirm that the president’s approval rating has fallen sharply over the past year, which has been marked by ongoing COVID-related restrictions and increasing price pressures (which Democrats memorably scoffed at when they were passing multiple trillion-dollars stimulus packages that economists have widely criticized as overkill).

Just 41% of respondents approved of the way Biden has handled his job while 58% disapproved, a “significant drop” from last January’s CNN polling. Unsurprisingly, dedicated Dems are still standing behind their man: Just 36% of independents and 9% of Republicans approved of Biden, while that number stood at 83% among Democrats. Last year, Biden’s approval among Dems was higher than 90%. Overwhelmingly, respondents said that Biden’s first year in office had been more of a failure than a success. 

The omicron wave and the inflation that started to pick up during the second half of last year have done by far the most damage to Biden’s credibility; his approval rating for handling the economy has dipped 8 points to 37% since early December. Meanwhile, his ratings for handling coronavirus have dropped 9 points to 45%.

When it comes to the best way forward for the US, Americans are deeply divided:  Nearly three-quarters of Democrats, 73%, said that stopping the spread should remain the highest priority. However, 72% of Republicans and 54% of independents – independents outnumber both registered Republicans and Democrats in the US by a sizable margin – said it was time to learn to live with the virus.

Looking ahead, Americans are overwhelmingly downbeat about the federal government and its ability to adequately represent their interests. The share of Americans who say they felt even somewhat well represented by the federal government remained low at 32%, and only 21% of Americans said they currently had a lot of confidence in Biden’s ability to provide real leadership for the country.

The share who said they had a lot of confidence in the President’s ability to work effectively with Congress has dropped by half since last March, from 32% to 15%, including a 28 percentage point drop among Democrats over that time.

Biden’s approval rating has been declining for some time now after an extremely brief post-election honeymoon. Polls show that President Trump’s favorability rating with the American public is currently higher than Biden’s. 

But, to put their approval numbers in a more appropriate context, Trump’s favorability was higher at this point in his presidency (despite the non-stop leaks from the Mueller probe).

That certainly doesn’t bode well for Democrats in Congress ahead of this November’s midterm…

A broad outage appears to have knocked some Twitter users off the platform around 1200 ET, according to Downdector. 

Some Twitter users are reporting they’ve been logged out of the platform, receiving this error: 

“Something went wrong, but don’t fret — it’s not your fault. Let’s try again.” 

Downdetector shows the first outages were reported around 1200 ET and continue to surge nearly one hour later. So far, 25,311 users have reported issues. 

The outage is widespread. 

Twitter’s API status reports multiple errors. 

“Identified – We’re experiencing an elevated level of API errors starting around 17:41 UTC and are currently investigating. The presence and scope of any customer impact has not been determined at this time, but we will provide an update as soon as we know more.”

*This story is developing. 

Authored by ‘NAMCIOS’ via BitcoinMagazine.com,

With Intel set to present an ASIC geared for bitcoin mining later this month, how will the computing giant reshape the industry’s landscape?

When news surfaced that one of the largest computer chip makers in the world, Intel, would give a presentation about an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) geared for bitcoin mining at the International Solid-State Circuits Conference (ISSCC), a global forum for presentation of advances in solid-state circuits and systems-on-a-chip to be held online later this month, the first logical conclusion was that the company would be presenting a new chip it had developed specifically for the activity.

On the very next day, publicly-listed bitcoin miner GRIID disclosed that it had signed a purchase agreement with Intel for acquiring fixed-price bitcoin mining ASIC hardware from the chipmaker for orders placed before May 2023, in what appeared to be a move to secure access to Intel’s new chip to be presented at the upcoming conference.

However, Intel spokesperson Nicolas Mijuskovic indicated that the company has done design work around SHA-256 optimized ASICs “for several years,” and will not unveil a new ASIC at ISSCC in a statement shared with Bitcoin Magazine.

“The SHA-256 ASIC referred to in the paper being presented at ISSCC … was our first generation product exploration from 2018,” the Intel statement said.

In 2018, Intel released a patent for a “bitcoin mining hardware accelerator with optimized message digest and message scheduler datapath,” which outlined a more efficient way to find a valid block hash. It claimed to be able to decrease energy use by up to 35% while lowering financial requirements and mining more bitcoin in the process.

Intel will present the advances in its solid-state circuit designs for bitcoin mining that have been made since that patent was filed, but will not unveil a completely new ASIC. However, GRIID’s purchase is indeed for a new chip that is yet to be announced.

“The supply agreement released as part of required [U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission] SEC disclosures from our customer concerns the second-generation ASIC for which we will provide more details soon,” the Intel spokesperson added.

THE BITCOIN MINING INDUSTRY’S BIGGEST PAIN POINTS

Bitcoin Magazine talked with Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings, one of the largest publicly-traded bitcoin mining companies in the world, to gather some insights into the current shortcomings of the industry and what may help solve them in the near future.

“The market has been characterized over the last two years by constraints in availability of quality miners,” Thiel told Bitcoin Magazine, referring to the worldwide chip shortage since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. Bitmain — which has been the quality and performance leader in the bitcoin miner manufacturing space since the introduction of its S19 mining rig — has solidified itself as the main ASIC maker in the world, Thiel added, helped by how the chip shortage has more dramatically impacted some of the tier-two suppliers.

“The only reason Bitmain has the position they have today is because of the availability of miners,” Thiel added.

“If there were no constraints on a basic way for starts at the foundries, you would see many more people in this industry and Bitmain would be one of many brands, and the competition would be around performance and cost of ownership, not around availability.”

Additionally, Bitmain has, for the most part, been able to provide the most energy-efficient miners in the world, catering to a need demonstrated by bitcoin mining companies that continually chase down the energy curve.

“We’re all very focused on being the most energy-efficient miners,” Thiel said.

“We will typically always chase the most energy-efficient miner because the less electricity we use, the less burden we put on the electrical infrastructure and the less it costs us to operate.”

COULD INTEL PROVIDE A SOLUTION?

New entrants in the industry like Intel could shake Bitmain’s comfortable position as the global leader in ASIC manufacturing by prompting more competition and likely leading to greater machine availability. The onset of new developments often push old-timers to pursue greater projects as it casts doubt on their ability to remain competitive without innovating.

“It’s about removing the constraints in the industry that existed and the kind of monopoly, or quasi-monopoly, that Bitmain has,” Thiel told Bitcoin Magazine, adding that Intel’s introduction as a new merchant silicon vendor “is good” as “it is a new foundry capacity.”

“So, it means more overall capacity in the marketplace,” Thiel said.

“Now that Intel has come out and started talking about it, you’re going to see other people wanting to protect their potential for market share by saying that they’re going to be in the market too.”

Thiel said that he expects a slew of vendors to start competing in the ASIC-producing industry in the coming year as new entrants try to obtain market share and pose competition to Bitmain.

Thiel didn’t provide more details, but hinted that there are three U.S.-based companies that have done ground-up designs and two more working on ground-up designs. There are also teams from major universities looking at ASIC manufacturing and design, he said.

If the entrance of these new companies in the industry materialize and the supply chain issues at the foundries start to resolve, hardware could commoditize, ensuing a race to low-cost hardware.

“And as hosting becomes more available because everybody is building out hosting capacity, I think what you’re going to find is there will be very little constraint around the growth rate of the global hash rate,” Thiel said. “Hardware will be readily available, hosting will be available and then it’s just a question of where is the price of bitcoin that is economically feasible to mine, and what price are you willing to pay to be in business today versus tomorrow versus next year?”

A STEEP RISE IN GLOBAL HASH RATE

If some constraints are removed from the industry, Bitcoin’s hash rate could grow immensely. As a result, profitability would diminish for new entrants seeking to mine BTC as the bitcoin-producing market gets more competitive, requiring players to have a greater share of the global hash rate to remain in business.

“It’s an arms race; there are only 900 bitcoin made per day currently, and there are a lot of people with a lot of capital chasing that,” Thiel told Bitcoin Magazine.

An even more competitive mining market could lead to alternative products being offered as barriers of entry increase the required amount of capital to be deployed for mining profitably.

“I think you are going to see growth in some of these hash rate derivatives,” Thiel said. “And as more demand for hash rate futures grows, then you’re going to see industrial miners selling portions of their hash rate for a few months to finance miners or other equipment, and that will be a way that people can play in this industry without even having to buy miners, they can just buy hash rate.”

Purchasing hash rate directly enables miners to compete in getting block rewards without needing to rent a huge physical space, secure 24/7 efficient hosting or acquire a lot of equipment upfront.

“At the end of the day, are you mining because you want to heat up your garage or are you mining because you want to earn bitcoin? And how do you want to go about paying potential for passive income relative to bitcoin mining? Do you want to do it as an investor by just buying hash rate futures, or investing in a public miner, or do you want to buy miners yourself and mine?” Thiel asked. “I think everybody is going to have to make that decision on their own and figure it out.”

It has been a whirlwind 24 hours in markets since yesterday’s torrid CPI print, which confirmed the highest inflation in 40 years, which was then followed by an even more extreme commentary from the Fed’s own windsock, James Bullard, who in remarks that have seen been called “immature” and “unprofessional” sparked a market panic with his calls for a 50bps rate hikes, an active sale of securities from the Fed’s balance sheet and even an intermeeting rate hike.

And despite a full-blown damage control offensive by both Fed speakers (Daly and Barkin), and the media – with CNBC’s Steve Liesman coming the closest to slamming Bullard as effectively having no idea what he is talking about – and downplaying Bullard’s “50bps green-light” (as well as talking-down an intermeeting move), we currently see Fed Funds futs at 70% odds of a 50bps March hike – which according to Nomura’s Charlie McElligott “forces the hand of the FOMC towards “hawkish asymmetry,” and who will have to “take what the market is giving them” and hike by 50bps in March, as it stands now” (although there is another CPI print before March so ‘data volatility’ remains)

Why?  Because anything less, according to the Nomura x-asset strategist, would not just shock markets in the other direction (in a way that would counterproductively “ease” financial conditions which is a 100 delta “non-starter” now as they are now forced “all-in” on tighter FCI, hence Real Yields to 1.5 yr highs), but would also undermine their credibility as “inflation fighters” in what has now become a massively politicized issue that is taxing all Americans and has the Fed in the crosshairs from all parties.

Nomura economist Rob Dent elaborates on this, noting that “one underappreciated aspect of yesterday’s surprise CPI numbers is their potential to worsen the national conversation around inflation. The press widely covered the upside surprise yesterday, and Google search activity suggests the general public also showed keen interesting. Moreover, significant increases in prices have become correlated with the percent of consumers reporting hearing bad news about higher prices in the University of Michigan survey.”

On the other hand, if the Fed wishes to avoid a 50bps initial hike shock, as it remains “scared of their own FCI shadows” with fed funds now pricing ~6.5 hikes by Dec YE Fed mtg, the “7 hikes in ‘22” option is the alternative path.

With all of this said, McElligott warns that if the Fed still tries to “slow-play it” now, and only goes 25bps in March due to legacy scar-tissue from prior market “tightening tantrums,” Rates traders “would probably wreck them for it and bury them further- because this latest inflation data has now finally seen majority capitulate to the view that the Fed is officially “behind-the-curve,” should have stopped QE in January when they first had the opportunity, and are now going to have to “double whammy” us with a more aggressive tightening path running alongside BS run-off, including maybe even outright sales.”

What about the possibility of an intermeeting emergency rate hike, an option which Bullard himself brought up?

According to Nomura, “it’s doubtful, because we are (really awkwardly) still in QE and buying bonds” which is why today’s 3pm POMO schedule release is a major risk-event to watch. Here Nomura repeats what we already mentioned yesterday:

FFG2 trade an overnight low of 99.8525, which would imply a 43% of an intermeeting 25bps hike today (or even higher probability if the assumed date is later this month). This makes the 3pm POMO schedule extra important as

• the only reason to not release it would be to get ready for intermeeting hike and the Fed would likely want to inform the market before hand (i.e not a surprise at 3pm on a Friday) and
• if it is released on schedule and the operations should stretch into early March and it should calm some of the intermeeting fears

So keep an eye on what the Fed says (or doesn’t say) at 3pm ET today: a new POMO schedule which concludes the tapering of QE on schedule some time in early March will likely spark a relief rally as at least an intermeeting rate hike is taken off the table. On the other hand, if the Fed decides to withhold publishing its final tapering timeline effectively ending QE today, then all bets are off.

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

• Analysts are turning increasingly bullish on oil, with some predicting prices to hit $120.

• The predictions come as fear of a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia continues to mount.

• Russia is a major exporter to the European Union, but it is also a big exporter of crude oil to the United States.

There are already plenty of oil bulls out there, but another one has just joined them. Strategist David Roche said this week oil could hit $120 per barrel in case of a Russian invasion in Ukraine.

The Ukraine situation has been in the spotlight for weeks now, and one might argue that if Russia wanted to invade, it would have done so already, supporting the argument with the fact that Russia stands to gain nothing but risk a lot with such a move. On the other hand, it is a fact there are Russian troops and military equipment near the border with Ukraine, and this is naturally making not just Ukraine but Western Europe and the United States nervous, with the counter-argument being that Moscow is biding its time before it strikes.

As a whole, the Ukraine situation has highlighted Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas and its desperate attempts in the past couple of weeks to secure alternatives to this supply in case of a cutoff. But, like any major geopolitical event, an escalation in Ukraine would also affect oil prices.

“I think if there was an invasion of Ukraine and there were to be sanctions which impeded either Russia’s access to foreign exchange mechanisms, messaging systems and so on, or which prevented them from exporting their commodities, either oil or gas or coal, I think at that point in time you would most certainly see oil prices at $120 [a barrel],” Roche told CNBC this week.

The issue of sanction fallout, both for Europe and for the United States, has surfaced as a big potential problem: Russia is a major exporter to the European Union, but it is also a big exporter of crude oil to the United States, not to mention all big European and U.S. businesses that have Russian operations.

Yet while an invasion remains a potential development, there seem to be enough actual developments in the oil sector that could see prices top $100 per barrel. Supply remains tight, and traders remain worried about it even as the latest forecasts about U.S. production strike an upbeat note.

The Energy Information Administration, for instance, recently projected that U.S. crude oil production should rise to 12 million bpd this year and 12.6 million bpd—a record-high—in 2023. At the end of last year, HIS Markit’s Daniel Yergin forecast U.S. oil production could add 900,000 bpd a day this year. For context, according to the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum report, production averaged 11.6 million bpd last week.

Other non-OPEC producers could also see higher production this year, including Brazil and Canada, but the situation in OPEC itself is a little more complicated. Most of the cartel’s members are having trouble boosting production as much as their new quotas call for. This has become the main reason for bullish oil price forecasts, in fact, as it has combined with strong—stronger than the IEA expected—demand for the commodity.

Only a handful of OPEC members can afford to add more barrels to total output. For now, those select few are demonstrating a reluctance to do so. Pressure from consuming countries will continue rising, however, with the White House saying this week that “all options were on the table” with regard to trying to rein in prices, including talks with oil-producing countries.

“Nobody should hold back supply at the expense of the American consumer, particularly as the recovery from the pandemic continues and oil producers around the world have the capacity to produce at levels that match demand and reduce the high prices.”

Russia is one of the producers struggling to boost production, but forecasters are noting this may change later in the year.

In the current supply context, handling the Ukraine situation without causing a global commodity-fueled economic crisis becomes even trickier.