Tag: finance

President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday morning. Around the time the news broke, planespotters on social media reported two Boeing E-6B Mercury planes flying on either side of the US mainland’s coasts. 

The Pentagon uses the E-6B as airborne nuclear mission-control, commanding a fleet of the Navy’s Ohio class nuclear-powered submarines, armed with nuclear ballistic missiles, in US waters and or around the world. 

“There was speculation the airborne command posts were deployed as a warning to any of America’s enemies after news broke of Trump’s positive test for the novel coronavirus,” Fox News said. 

Fox News continued, “while military planes generally turn off their transponders in order to avoid being tracked, the two E-6Bs in the air early Friday morning had left theirs on, with the assumption being that their crews want to be seen.” 

Tim Hogan, an American open-source intelligence analyst, tweeted: 

There’s an E-6B Mercury off the east coast near DC. I looked because I would expect them to pop up if he tests positive. It’s a message to the small group of adversaries with SLBMs and ICBMs.

Hogan said:

Here’s another E6-B that just popped up visible on MLAT on the west coast. IMO Stratcom wants them to be seen.

Hogan said the E6-Bs have the “ability to order the killing of everyone on earth if someone attacks the US with nukes in a first strike. It can talk to our missile subs underwater even if DC is gone.” 

The Navy has 16 of these planes, and it’s not uncommon for two to be flying at the same. However, the timing of Friday’s flights is noteworthy. 

And maybe NBC’s Ben Collins is right … 

This is a remarkable way to get a scoop, about a half-hour before the announcement. https://t.co/YKcYSltLVS

— Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) October 2, 2020

Authored by Ben Zeisloft via Campus Reform,

Former Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, one of the main impeachment witnesses against President Donald Trump, will serve as a visiting fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House.

Perry World House exists “to bring the academic knowledge of the University of Pennsylvania to bear on some of the world’s most pressing global policy challenges.” Perry World House fellows interact with the Penn community via lectures, office hours, workshops, and other events.

Vindman rose from relative obscurity after he testified in the House about Trump’s phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which he called “improper.” After Trump was acquitted, he relieved Vindman of his post in the National Security Council.

In July, Vindman retired from military service after an alleged “campaign of bullying, intimidation, and retaliation by President Trump and his allies.” 

According to The Federalist‘s Mollie Hemmingway and the Washington Examiner’s Byron York’s book, Obsession: Inside the Washington Establishment’s Never-Ending War on Trump, which identifies Vindman as the driving force behind the impeachment proceedings, Vindman was the only person on the National Security Council to listen in on the Ukraine call and express concern about it. 

During the impeachment trials, Vindman admitted to leaking information about the Ukraine phone call to two people, one of whom he said worked at the State Department and the other of whom he said worked within the U.S. intelligence community. Vindman offered the name of the first individual but did not disclose the name of the second, which Republicans during the impeachment hearing suspected was the whistleblower. 

In an interview with The Atlantic Editor-In-Chief Jeffrey Goldberg, Vindman expressed criticism of Trump, calling him Vladimir Putin’s “useful idiot.”

Professors at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School – President Trump’s alma mater – recently made headlines for trying to launch an investigation into Trump’s admission to the university. The professors cited a claim in Too Much and Never Enough – a recent book written by Trump’s niece, Mary Trump – that President Trump paid someone to take the SAT on his behalf.

The university declined the professors’ request to investigate, stating that “this situation occurred too far in the past to make a useful or probative factual inquiry possible,” as Campus Reform previously reported. 

JPMorgan’s head quant Marko Kolanovic was quick to cut to the chase today and opine on what truly matters in the aftermath of Trump’s covid diagnosis: the bank’s S&P price target, which as the Croat wrote in an “Update on overnight developments” remains unchanged, to wit:

In light of recent developments, the positive COVID-19 test for the US President and First Lady, we are not changing our price targets or outlook across asset classes. Our equity outlook remains positive with a  (scenario-weighted) S&P 500 year-end price target of 3600.

Additionally, the JPM quant writes that the bank’s outlook for styles remains that “value will outperform momentum and growth under any election outcome” while on sectors his view “is that cyclicals will outperform also under any election outcome.”

But enough about markets, what about Kolanovic’s take on politics, which sadly these days is what every market strategist has become an expert in? According to the quant, “the current development across various scenarios for the President’s illness slightly increases Biden’s chance of winning, which could marginally reduce post-election risks and market uncertainty.”

But what is curious is a scenario from Kolanovic which we are confident he will get a lot of heat for, namely one “in which a combination of voter sympathy, turnout and an asymptomatic or mild virus outcome boosts Trump’s election chances (e.g. vindicating his strategy of opening by example).”

Then quickly going back to markets, Kolanovic lays out another market-friendly outcome in which “a significant health deterioration acts to lower tensions and animosity on both sides of the aisle, paving the way for national reconciliation and likely increasing Republicans’ odds in Congress.”

Underscoring his bullish view, Kolanovic repeats that “positioning remains low” which however Morgan Stanley completely disagrees with, finding last week that adjusted hedge fund net leverage is at all time highs as we noted recently:

Panicky HF flow is also limited as the “crowded” HF trades, where gross and net leverage is high, are working. Crowding is concentrated in high quality Cyclicals and Defensives but the common themes are secular growth winners with low EPS volatility – performance has been very strong in these areas (left chart below).

That said, one final optimistic take per Kolanovic is that “the probability of an early phase 4 stimulus is likely increasing” as such he expects 3Q earnings delivery and outlook “to remain constructive as earnings again come in ahead of expectations and balance sheet trends show further improvement.”

Judging by the market’s impressive reversal higher, especially after House Democrats hinted of an airline bailout possibility, traders seems to agree with Marko.

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

In a hot mic moment, Pennsylvania lawmakers admitted that the masking ritual is all political theatre. The huge scam is being pushed on us from all sides, and it is beyond time to wake up to what is going on.

Pennsylvania State Representative Wendy Ullman and Governor Tom Wolf were caught joking off-camera about taking their masks off just before they spoke at a press conference touting the need to defend Obamacare during COVID-19. Politics is smoke in mirrors and a distraction at this point. Nothing more. The goal is the New World Order, and it’s being rolled out as I type this.

The admission that masks are nothing more than “political theatre,” took place yesterday. Just as Ullman was preparing to speak behind the podium on Tuesday at a press conference north of Philadelphia, Wolf can be heard off-camera to her left, saying:

“So Wendy, I’m gonna take, I’m gonna take my mask off when I speak.”

Ullman walked toward Wolf, off-camera, and said: 

“I will as well, just, I’m waiting so that we can do a little political theater.” 

Wolf replies, “OK,” and the two Democrats share a laugh.

Ullman then walks back toward the podium and finishes her sentence, saying, “so that it’s on camera.”

Ullman then took her mask off from behind the microphone, just before she spoke, according to a report by RT. Wolf did the same when it was his turn to speak. They called the press conference to speak about the need to protect Obamacare from being dismantled, especially amid the pandemic, by blocking Supreme Court justice nominee Amy Coney Barrett from being confirmed by the US Senate.

But, fortunately, people are beginning to figure out the ruling class is causing all of the trauma to everyday people.

@TomWolfPA I enjoyed your political theater, meanwhile families and businesses suffer.

— PS272 (@psosa272) September 29, 2020

Gov. Wolf and Rep. Ullman caught on hot mic giggling and referring to masks as “political theater”

The destruction of the livelihoods of millions of Pennsylvanians is no laughing matter and we don’t find this entertaining pic.twitter.com/M6hoJC15aS

— Mayor Jondavid R. Longo (@JondavidRLongo) September 29, 2020

It’s all a scam and a hoax.  The evidence is clear. It’s time to do the hard work and admit we’ve been swindled by liars in suits.

For hedge funds, you have to strike while the “2 and 20” iron is hot.

Today, in our continuing “Hope for Hedge Funds?” series, billionaire Alan Howard – who doubled his investors money early on during the pandemic – is using his superlative performance early on this year to raise another $500 million for his fund, the Brevan Howard AH Master Fund.

Howard is currently in talks with investors and will reportedly take in new money until January of next year, according to Bloomberg. The fund declined to comment for Bloomberg’s story.

But the move wouldn’t be entirely unexpected: Howard is up about 100% after the volatility from Covid gave his fund a boost and also cemented the best performance of Howard’s career after years of “mediocre returns”. 

Howard’s firm had started to see AUM slip, falling to about $6 billion at the beginning of 2019 from a massive $40 billion under management during 2013. The firm managed $10.6 billion at the end of August this year.

Howard’s AH Master Fund started in 2017 and makes “riskier bets” in order to achieve higher returns. Howard invests his own money in the fund, but the details of its positioning are kept “top secret”, according to Bloomberg. 

Recall, it was less than a week ago that we postulated that the volatility returning to markets could be the first tailwind for hedge funds in a decade.

We noted that few in the finance industry have suffered at the hands of Fed policy that has driven the stock market nowhere but up over the last decade more than hedge funds. Investors have left hedge funds in droves as the appeal of passive investing has grown, resulting in growing outflows and lower fees.

But now, with volatility returning to the market, it seems as though there could be some hope for hedge funds after all.

Recall, we noted this summer that hedge fund liquidations had soared to their highest level since 2015. HFR released a report in late June that showed 304 funds liquidated in 1Q20. This was the highest level of fund liquidation since the fourth quarter of 2015, when 305 funds shut down. Shown below, the number of closures in 1Q20 is about 50% higher than the last quarter in 2019.

Long-short equity hedge funds fell 5.75% in March, while the market plunged, but also posted a gain of 13.67% in the first 8 months of 2020. They were the best-performing strategy in August, according to Nomura. Hedge fund assets amount to $3.6 trillion, globally. 

Philippe Ferreira at fund of hedge fund Lyxor Asset Management said: “We see great demand for strategies that protect from great volatility.”

Submitted by Nava Capital

“Price is what you pay; value is what you get.” B. Graham

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” B. Graham

“Value investing is at its core the marriage of a contrarian streak and a calculator.” S. Klarman

“Never confuse genius with a bull market.” J. Bogle

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easier person to fool.” R. Feynman

When equity markets seem unstoppable, rising relentlessly on good, bad or no news, investors slowly forget that value is an anchor to price. When markets have been quasi invincible for more than a decade, with every decline recouped extremely rapidly, investors stop thinking critically. Reflection becomes a liability.

Buy The Dips works so well, let’s build a narrative around it. This time it is really different! Is it?

Central Banks around the world, by lowering interest rates aggressively and expressing support, verbally and/or materially, to the markets at the slightest emergence of stress, by taking too much time or even refusing to remove the accommodations they provided, have set the stage for historical market and social dislocations.

When finance dominates everything, when companies’ management are obsessed by financial engineering and short-term personal rewards, when governments/central banks/regulators are controlled and not controlling, dogmatic and not pragmatic, the end result cannot be good. While we will expand on this in a next installment, Ben Hunt of Epsilon theory has written extensively and brilliantly on the subject. One could start here.

Bubbles need leverage to develop. Rates below a certain level could have a detrimental effect for the real economy as investment in new productive capital become less and less elastic to rates decline on their way to 0%, zombie companies survive, preventing the Schumpetarian creative destruction, leaving excess supply in place, pushing inflation rate down (what? low rates could be deflationary?) and savers have to spend less as their capital returns decline. The only thing thriving is finance where actors put on more and more leverage to buy existing capital (buybacks, M&A, dividend payment to private equity firm,…).

The consequence is increased debt unbacked by new productive capital. A system where overall debt cannot be repaid, ever. A system where the can is kicked down the road until it can’t anymore.

The end game is either an inflationary burst to save the debtors, a multi-decades slow growth environment or a deflationary burst. Given that the debtors are governments, interest groups lobbying them and Generation X and the younger ones (who will soon dominate the electorate), we have little doubt that the inflationary scenario is the most probable by far.

So what should stock market price represent? Stocks are a claim on future cash flows. In order to assess their value today, we have to calculate their present value using an appropriate discount rate. Doing this we get what is commonly called the intrinsic value of a stock or of a group of stocks.

At a given discount rate, the short-term fluctuations of cash flows have very little influence on a market intrinsic value. Remove entirely 1 or 2 years of cash flow and the difference will be small. Changing the discount rate, on the other hand, can have a huge impact.

Discount rate assumptions backed by market participants are strongly correlated with their mood. Bullish participants will accept a lower discount rate, ceteris paribus.

Prevailing interest rates usually serve as a loose anchor to discount rate assumptions. We can nevertheless see, experimentally, an increased exposure to risky assets the lower the risk-free rate is, even when the mean excess return is the same.

On the graph below, one can see the average allocations to a risky asset across different interest rate conditions. Each condition has 200 participants, from the MTurk platform. The x-axis shows the risk-free rate in each condition. The mean excess return on the risky asset is 5% in all conditions.

The current environment of extreme bullishness combined with low (0%) short-term rate are an explosive combination. So explosive that the US S&P 500 is, at today’s level, the most overvalued it has ever been. We will demonstrate it using a methodology proposed by J. Hussman, the Margin-Adjusted Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earning Ratio (MAPE). J. Hussman is, unknowingly, the investor who has inspired our whole career in finance when, freshly graduated we stumbled upon his writings in early 2000. From his valuation analysis to his market environment analysis or his quantitative stock selection methodology, most of our research started from one of his commentary (and we hope we have also integrated at least some of his com(passionated), altruistic way of life).

R. Shiller and J. Campell proposed the concept Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earning (CAPE) to forecast 7-12 years markets future return using a long moving average of earnings (originally 10 years) back in 1988. The goal was to smooth out the business cycle influence on earnings in order to get a smoother series they called trend earnings.

The CAPE model was good at forecasting forward return in the past (M. Faber applied it to foreign markets too) but some argue that accounting changes, payout policies, a move toward less competitive markets could have made the CAPE model lose some or even most of its forecasting ability. One can find some great discussion on the subject here and here. R. Shiller introduced the Cyclically-Adjusted Total Return Price Earning Ratio to account for the change in company payout policies with the increased use of buybacks to return capital to shareholders.

Two flaws remained nevertheless.

First, as identified by J. Hussman, one can get an even smoother trend earning series by adjusting the CAPE to get constant historical margins. He uses 5.4% margin as its average. So if the most recent 10 years average margin is 7%, one ought to multiply the CAPE by 7%/5.4% (1.3). A CAPE of 30 becomes a MAPE of 40.

The second problem is that margin could have increased permanently due to structural change in the economy and the dominance of capital-light businesses.

While this might explain some of the increase in margin, we are convinced that a large part of the increase in margin is transitory and that once capitalism is allowed to work as it should, it will disappear. It will be the subject for another article.

Anyhow, we have assumed a permanent increase of margin to 7% starting in 1998 with the emergence of internet.

Let’s now look at the data.

As one can see, today’s MAPE is the highest it has ever been, dwarfing the 2000 Tech Bubble. Two years ago the overvaluation was widespread with every segments (large, small, value, growth,…) affected, leaving no place to hide.

The situation is different now and is starting to be similar to the 2000 episode.

Indeed, the extreme overvaluation is concentrated in some sectors and large cap names while value(bis) and small cap stocks are undervalued (even deeply undervalued for value stocks, especially if the inflation scenario materialize) on a relative basis.

If we construct an historical corridor with boundaries between the 0% and 50% percentiles of MAPE history, the prospect looks grim for Buy and Holders.

The S&P 500 is currently almost 300% above the level corresponding to a bottom MAPE and 80% above the 50% percentile MAPE history.

The S&P 500 is currently almost 300% above the level corresponding to a bottom MAPE and 80% above the 50% percentile MAPE history.

If we assumed a return to the MAPE lows or to the MAPE 50% percentiles, with nominal trend earnings growing at their historical pace and the current 2% dividend yield, one can see that the S&P 500 total return nominal CAGR to January 2030 would be between -6.27% and 1.68%. Given the historical tendency of deeply overvalued markets to fall significantly below the 50% percentile MAPE, being positioned for positive total return would be unwise.

It is also important to remember that today’s margin are above our 7% assumption and that the CBO is projecting 4.1% real US GDP growth to 2030. The odds are thus stacked against the >6% real earning growth we have assumed.

A factor we have alluded to before which could have a large influence on nominal returns is inflation. To see the sensitivity of forward nominal total return to various inflation and margin scenarios we have created the following tables.

They indicate the S&P 500 total return until January 2030 with various forward nominal earning growth and margins.

Nominal total return if we reach 0% percentile MAPE in January 2030:

Nominal total return if we reach 50% percentile MAPE in January 2030:

Real total return if we reach 0% percentile MAPE in January 2030:

Real total return if we reach 50% percentile MAPE in January 2030:

One can see that positive nominal returns are only achieved in a very high inflation environment (>15% annual inflation) at a 0% percentile MAPE in 2030.

One has also to be aware that the price investors are ready to pay for each unit of earning does not have a linear relationship with inflation. The always insightful Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research dubbed it the “Y curve effect“.

Equity markets participants like moderate to low, steady inflation. High inflation or deflation have historically lead to contracting MAPE. This imply that in a high inflation scenario the risk of hitting the MAPE lower bound increases.

In this brief note, which will be the basis for many more to come, our goal was to demonstrate as objectively as possible how far from intrinsic value the S&P 500 is today. Paraphrasing B. de Chartres, we stood on the shoulders of giants to do so.

The S&P 500 is not likely to have a positive nominal total return in the next 10 years and it would need a miracle to achieve positive real returns. Central Banks, with their accommodative policies and hyper-sensibility to volatility have brought forward future equity returns (and some more).

With risk-free and corporate fixed income yields at record low, passive investors are up for a painful decade.

We have written about our enhanced indices and our Sentinel models in the past. Combined with market timing methodology (article coming soon) and our flexible quantitative asset rotation framework (more details in the future), it should enable investors to navigate this difficult period.

As always, we encourage readers to subscribe to our mailing list to get new articles as soon as they are published. We also appreciate your questions and commentaries which are helpful and have lead to thoughtful exchanges. They can be sent to research@nava.capital We have also put online some of the internal tools we used to generate the equity curves, statistics, factor attribution and others we use in our article.

https://tools.nava.capital/

Feel free to use them. If you wish enhancement you can reach us at tools@nava.capital

Authored by Pat Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

In their first debate, the president of the United States, challenged by the former vice president, performed poorly – even by his own estimation.

If memory serves, an instant poll showed that the American people, by 47-43, thought Walter Mondale had bested Ronald Reagan in the Louisville debate where the president made such gaffes as citing the high cost of the military’s “food and wardrobe.”

By week’s end, reflecting the press commentary, 80% of the country was of the view that Mondale had crushed Reagan.

Democrats were cheering Mondale as “The Louisville Slugger.”

Among Republicans, there was real alarm. Had The Gipper “lost it”?

The president blamed his staff for stuffing him like a pelican with facts that he spent much of the debate trying to regurgitate. This set the scene for the second debate in Kansas City where Henry Trewhitt of the Baltimore Sun put to Reagan the question raised by the first debate:

“Mr. President, I want to raise an issue that I think has been lurking out there for two or three weeks and cast it specifically in national security terms. You already are the oldest president in history. And some of your staff say you were tired after your most recent encounter with Mr. Mondale. I recall yet that President Kennedy had to go for days on end with very little sleep during the Cuban missile crisis. Is there any doubt in your mind that you would be able to function in such circumstances?”

Reagan stepped into the pitch:

“Not at all, Mr. Trewhitt, and I want you to know that also I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth, and inexperience.”

Came then the kicker.

“I might add, Mr. Trewhitt … that it was Seneca, or was it Cicero … that said, ‘If it was not for the elders correcting the mistakes of the young, there would be no state.’”

“Fritz” Mondale joined in the laughter. The cloud that had hung over Reagan’s campaign since Louisville lifted. And we all knew it, even a media that wanted to see Reaganism repudiated.

Rereading Reagan’s reply of 36 years ago, one can see that it was not spontaneous, but a product of preparation. And the old actor knew how to deliver the lines. The age issue instantly vanished, and Reagan, weeks later, would sweep 49 states, losing only Mondale’s Minnesota.

Which brings us to that less courtly affair of Tuesday last.

It was a debacle, and, more crucially for Trump, a major lost opportunity. His objective going in was to leave 90 minutes later with several goals achieved.

First, show, by contrast with the Joe Biden on stage beside him, that he was the stronger, superior leader to handle the pandemic and economic crises of 2020, and the racial crisis that has erupted since the Memorial Day death of George Floyd.

Second, to let the country see itself that Biden was too weak — and too captive to the Bernie-AOC-BLM-antifa radicals — to deal with the crisis created by the criminal elements that have ravaged the cities of Portland, Seattle and Minneapolis.

Trump’s need was to show that while he may have lost the Mr. Nice Guy competition of 2020, in the situation we are in now, the nation needs a strong leader – not a good buddy.

What happened on that stage in Cleveland?

The insults, the interruptions, the name-calling and the yelling became the story of the debate, the “worst in presidential history,” a “dumpster fire” in which Trump, Biden and moderator Chris Wallace were all complicit, with Trump fingered as the instigator.

Millions of Americans likely walked away saying, “What a mess!” More difficult to imagine is that undecided or Trump-leaning voters would have come away saying, “That’s the leader we’ve been looking for.”

Trump has two debates left to achieve the goals he failed to achieve in Cleveland.

He and his campaign need to tie Biden to the repellent elements of the Democratic Party and their radical agenda on remaking an America that the extreme left visibly detests, or to force Biden to repudiate those elements.

Trump’s rallies continue to reflect the energy, enthusiasm and affection of his followers. But in four years, the rallies have not changed the math.

For Trump to rise into competitive range, Biden must fall, and Trump must appear the necessary and only alternative, even to folks who are not that fond of him.

Trump’s assignment in the next two debates: Link Biden to the people — and their agenda — in his coalition whom the national majority detests. Make Joe repudiate both. And let Biden’s performance expose his own inadequacies.

The presidency hinges upon whether Trump can succeed in this. And the next two presidential debates will likely give us the answer.

Just prior to the late Thursday night news breaking of the president and first lady’s coronavirus diagnosis, Trump stopped over in New Jersey to attend a campaign fundraiser event. After traveling all week — at the end of which his staff reported him appearing “exhausted” even before the test came in positive — he attended the fundraiser at his Bedminster golf club. 

Already through contact tracing and rapid subsequent testing, it’s emerged that GOP Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel has tested positive, also as top aides to Trump announce they will self-isolate out of precaution. As of Wednesday “some of Trump’s closest aides sensed on Wednesday that the president was feeling poorly” and seemed “exhausted,” according to Bloomberg reporter Jennifer Jacobs.

And now, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is urging all those who attended the Thursday night Bedminster golf club event to both get tested and self-quarantine. 

We urge everyone who attended yesterday’s event in Bedminster to take full precautions, including self-quarantining and getting tested for #COVID19.

Find your nearest testing location: https://t.co/JZg9mGpUuV.

— Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) October 2, 2020

“The contact-tracing process is underway. We urge everyone who attended yesterday’s event in Bedminster to take full precautions, including self-quarantining and getting tested,” Murphy said in a statement. 

Gov. Murphy further said, referencing his wife, “Tammy and I send our best wishes to President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump for a speedy and complete return to good health,” according to the statement. “If there is one thing we have learned in New Jersey over these months, it’s that we pull together and support everyone fighting this virus.”

Despite a routine testing regimen having long been in place for those that meet with and surround the president and first lady, there are fears that “dozens” may be infected, as The Hill writes Friday morning:

Just this week, Trump attended the first presidential debate, held meetings with top aides, spoke at a campaign rally and traveled to a fundraiser.

Depending on when Trump was first exposed, dozens of people may be at risk. Trump has repeatedly downplayed the risks of the virus, and he and his staff often do not wear masks. 

The Hill also has produced a detailed timeline of who the president met with and when over the past week, which can be seen here.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced on Friday that she will move for a standalone airline relief package following a flurry of layoff announcements.

WHOA … PELOSI announces she will move stand-alone airline relief. BIG change here.

PELOSI: “As relief for airline workers is being advanced, the airline industry must delay these devastating job cuts.”

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 2, 2020

Pelosi urged airlines to delay planned furloughs, as an agreement is “imminent” on government assistance, according to Bloomberg.

“As relief for airline workers is being advanced, the airline industry must delay these devastating job cuts,” she said.

Meanwhile, House Majority LEader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), the House may advance the airline bill today.

Stocks, particularly airline stocks, bounced on the news – though as @ForexLive notes, “The market is mis-reading this. The newswire headlines hint it’s a broader deal but it’s airlines only.”

The market is mis-reading this. The newswire headlines hint it’s a broader deal but it’s airlines only. https://t.co/9ym4OY1UVL

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) October 2, 2020

Developing…