Tag: finance

Authored by Jon LeSage via OilPrice.com,

Energy analysts tend to agree that nuclear fusion will have to replace fission at power plants to bring back more support for nuclear as a clean energy source. The challenge here will be speeding up the development process and cutting down the huge costs for bringing fusion online as climate change mandates approach. A NASA research project may offer a pathway to making nuclear fusion commercial.

The space agency has been releasing results from testing “lattice confinement,” which could transform production scale and bring costs way down for much-anticipated nuclear fusion energy. It may be able to remove, or at least reduce, a key barrier that has kept fusion years away from being deployed. 

NASA’s lattice confinement method allows fusion-level kinetic energy to come together at room temperatures. Conditions sufficient for fusion are created within the metal lattice that’s held at ambient temperature. The metal lattice is loaded with deuterium fuel, and through the new lattice confinement method, it creates an energetic environment inside the lattice where atoms can gain equivalent fusion-level kinetic energies. 

One of the clear differences with magnetic fusion reaction — which is the main methodology gaining support in the fusion community — is that it’s dramatically more dense, which is how the reaction is triggered. A metal such as erbium can be loaded with deuterium atoms, packing the fuel a billion times denser than magnetic confinement (tokamak) fusion reactors. The new method ‘heats’ or accelerates deuterons sufficiently that when colliding with a neighboring deuteron, it causes D-D (deuterium-deuterium) fusion reactions. 

Lattice confinement fusion was reported earlier this year by a team of scientists based at NASA’s Glenn Research Center in Cleveland.

Most of the intensive nuclear r&d projects, such as the world’s largest ITER tokamak project in France, are based on using a magnetic fusion reaction. This method creates extraordinary heat used to combat atoms’ natural reaction forces and keep them confined in a plasma together. 

The plasma won’t even be ready in France until 2025, but another project underway in the UK could support ITER tokamak and speed up the process. The UK project was put on hold 23 years ago, but is getting ready to start up again in 2021. The ITER project is still under construction in the South of France. It’s a collaboration between 35 nations, decades in the making, claiming that they will achieve first plasma by 2025, and commercial nuclear fusion could follow right behind.

The race is on to be the first technology to clear safety standards and bring long-awaited nuclear fusion plants online — offering countries clean energy from a safe, efficient source.

It has advantages over renewable energy, led by wind and solar, offering utilities consistent, steady clean power that can overcome the impact of intermittent weather conditions affecting renewables. The smoke-intensive brush fires taking place in the western US recently showed the vulnerability of solar that needs clear, sunny skies to maximize energy generation. 

One of the competitors is dense plasma focus (DPF), which is being developed by LPPFusion, the working name of Middlesex, NJ-based Lawrenceville Plasma Physics, Inc. It could be a direct competitor with NASA’s lattice confinement method, and also promises a much faster and economically feasible strategy for taking fusion to the commercial level.

ITER and other reactor projects have been utilizing large-scale experimental facilities than DPF would need. That would take away costly systems such as ultra-high power lasers and microwave generators, particle beams, giant superconducting magnet systems, and other advanced technologies. Going this route also means that the testing phase will last several years longer than the new innovative technologies may provide.  

The cost has been quite high for fusion development. France’s ITER so far has had an estimated cost of over $40 billion. 

NASA’s interest in nuclear fusion has to do with its future strategy of traveling to Mars and other planets through its commercial partner alliances. Nuclear power could be the energy source offering much greater power and efficiency than rocket fuel. The agency is also interested in conducting mining and testing operations on planets and asteroids to extract water, metals, and minerals. 

Nuclear fusion could be the energy source opening up NASA’s potential for greater space exploration along with partners such as SpaceX, Boeing, and Blue Origin.

If you were looking for a list of things President Trump is likely to hammer Joe Biden over during tonight’s debate, his campaign has published a list of 17 questions that “Joe Biden must answer in the debate.“

They range from the $3.5 million wire transfer Hunter Biden received from a Russian billionaire who was married to the former mayor of Moscow, to Biden claiming he “got started” at Delaware State – a historically black college that says he never attended, to Supreme Court nominees and court-packing.

See the full list below:

1. Your son Hunter Biden received a $3.5 million wire transfer from a Russian billionaire who was married to the former mayor of Moscow. He also had a joint bank account with a Chinese national that financed $100,000 in credit card purchases around the world. This all happened while you were Vice President. Why would people connected to the Russian and Chinese governments want to give your son millions of dollars?
    
2. You recently said you “got started” at Delaware State University, an HBCU. The school says they have no record of you ever attending. What did you major in there?
    
3. In June you said you were vetting your own potential Supreme Court picks and promised you would release your own list. Now you say you won’t release a list. Why go back on your pledge?
    
4. Your running mate Kamala Harris said last year that she was open to adding as many as 4 seats to the Supreme Court. Now more leading Democrats are saying your party should pack the Supreme Court if they get the chance. Are you refusing to answer whether you will go along with this radical plan because you are too weak to stand up to it?
    
5. In January 2017, you said that Democrats should not block President Trump’s nominees for the Supreme Court. You said you believe the Constitution “requires” the Senate “to give the nominee a hearing and a vote.” In 2016 you said “would go forward with the confirmation process” of a Supreme Court nominee “even a few months before a presidential election … just as the Constitution requires.” Now you say the Constitution requires the exact opposite. How do you reconcile that change?
    
6. In 2008 you promised Americans that if they made less than $250,000 they would not pay a penny more in taxes. You broke that promise and imposed new taxes that directly impacted middle-class Americans. Now you’re claiming you won’t raise taxes on anyone making more than 400,000. Why should voters believe you now, especially since you’ve said you will reinstate the individual mandate tax?
    
7. As Vice President, you oversaw the weakest economic recovery since the Great Depression. What would you do differently if you were elected?
    
8. Your plan would raise the U.S. business tax rate higher than China’s rate. Won’t that make it more expensive for companies to do business in America and ultimately send jobs overseas?
    
9. President Trump imposed restrictions on travel from China on January 31 to combat the spread of the coronavirus. Why did it take you two months to say you supported that decision?
    
10. In 2008 you and Barack Obama promised to fully fund the federal COPS program, which provides resources to local law enforcement. But funding for this program was cut while you were vice president, despite your promise. Why did you fail to keep your word?
     
11. Earlier this year your campaign staff donated money to the Minnesota Freedom Fund, an organization that bailed out of a jail a rioter who shot at police officers and other violent criminals and sexual predators. Your running mate Kamala Harris also urged people to donate to that organization and is still raising money for it. Do you condone that?
     
12. You say if you’re elected you’ll push to give citizenship to the 11 million undocumented people in our country. Why do you believe they should receive Medicare and Social Security benefits?
     
13. When you were running for president in 2007, both you and Obama pledged to renegotiate NAFTA, a promise you did not keep when you were in office. You recently blamed Republicans for this, saying they wouldn’t go along with it, but Democrats controlled Congress in 2009 when the Obama Administration announced it would not even try to change NAFTA. So why did you fail to keep your word?
     
14. When you voted to give China “most favored nation” trade status in 2000, you said you did not foresee “the collapse of the American manufacturing economy” because of it. But by one estimate, it led to the loss of 1 million manufacturing jobs in the U.S. Do you acknowledge that your vote to give China most favored nation trade status was a mistake that hurt American workers?
     
15. The 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic infected 60 million Americans when you were VP, and the federal government depleted its strategic stockpile of N95 masks in response. A fact check by USA Today found that your administration made no effort to replenish the stockpile of masks, despite warnings from experts. Do you accept responsibility for that failure, which left America unprepared for another pandemic?
     
16. Your campaign says it is a “lie” that “the Biden-Harris ticket is the most radically pro-abortion” ticket “in U.S. history.” Are there any restrictions on abortion that you support, and if so, please be specific?  
     
17. You said the N-word 13 times during a 1985 Senate nomination fight, when you were quoting something attributed to someone else. Do you think that was appropriate to do? Is that the only time you’ve said the N-word?

Turkey’s Defense Ministry has vehemently denied its F-16 fighter shot down an Armenian SU-25 fighter, as claimed earlier by the Armenian Defense Ministry.

Armenia’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) had earlier issued a shock announcement signaling massive escalation and alleged intervention by Turkey. The MoD had claimed Turkey’s F-16 shot down an Armenian Sukhoi Su-25 from Azerbaijni territory in support of Azeri forces.

A spokesman for Erdogan subsequently called reports that Turkey shot down an Armenian fighter jet “absolutely not true,” according to Bloomberg.

But the allegation and initial claim out of Yerevan was still enough to momentarily send the Turkish lira crashing on the news to a new record low, already from previous historic lows this week.

“Armenia should withdraw from territories under its occupation instead of resorting to these cheap propaganda tricks,” the Turkish presidency’s office said.

Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry also denied that any warplanes were shot down, according to RIA.

And further, as BBC reports, “Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that its air force does not have F-16 fighter jets. However, Turkey does.”

Armenia’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) has announced a massive escalation and alleged provocation by Turkey, saying Turkish F-16 fighter jets took off from an Azerbaijan airport in support of Azeri forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, which has witness the restart of border warfare since Sunday.

The MoD now says one Turkish F-16 was shot down by an Armenian SU-25 fighter jet, it marks (if confirmed) the first direct clash between the Turkish and Armenian armies.

However, Turkey’s Defense Ministry is denying the report that its jet was shot down. 

But the allegation and initial claim out of Yerevan was still enough to send the Turkish lira crashing on the news to a new record low, already from previous historic lows this week.

developing…

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A Conservative MP has called for mandatory coronavirus vaccination certificates distributed by the Army that will determine whether people will be allowed to travel internationally.

During a debate in the British Parliament last night, MP Tobias Ellwood urged the Prime Minister to have the British Armed Forces oversee that COVID-19 vaccination roll out process.

Noting that a coronavirus vaccine was potentially six months away, Ellwood said, “Mass vaccine roll out is an enormous responsibility and we need to get it right.”

Ellwood said he had written to Boris Johnson urging him to give the power to a Ministry of Defence task force to ship the vaccines across the country and set up regional distribution hubs as well as developing a “national database to track progress and issue the vaccination certificates.”

Rolling out of vaccines to the population carried out by British Armed Forces.

Covid vaccination certificate required for travel.

House of Commons
Monday 28 September 2020
Rt Hon Tobias Ellwood MP 77th Brigade (Bournemouth East, Conservative) pic.twitter.com/6Is9Cxrqo2

— ᴊᴏꜱᴇꜰ ᴋᴀʟꜰ (@JosefKalfsGran) September 28, 2020

The MP said the vaccination certificates “will probably have to be internationally recognized in order to allow travel, international travel.”

Ellwood went on to make it clear that people who take the vaccine will see their lives return to normality while those who don’t will still be “subject to social distancing rules.”

The prospect of denying basic rights of mobility and travel to people who refuse to take a vaccine for personal, religious or medical reasons is shaping up to be a human rights minefield.

A poll conducted by King’s College London (KCL) and Ipsos Mori last month found that only 53% of Brits would be “certain” or “likely” to get vaccinated for COVID-19.

One in six said they would definitely not get a vaccine or that it would be very unlikely. When extrapolated out to the population, this equates to 11 million people who, if Ellwood’s advice is taken, will be denied travel and treated like second class citizens.

*  *  *

In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Also, I urgently need your financial support here.

After August’s major disappointment, The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence for September was expected to rebound from its lowest level since 2014. And rebound it did with the headline confidence print screaming higher from 84.8 to 101.8 (smashing expectations of 90.0).

Hope dominated the headline beat:

• Present situation confidence rose to 98.5 vs 85.8 last month

• Consumer confidence expectations rose to 104.0 vs 86.6 last month

But, despite the bounce, current conditions remain seriously impaired post-COVID…

Source: Bloomberg

This was the biggest headline jump since 2003…

Source: Bloomberg

And biggest spike in ‘hope’ since 2009…

Source: Bloomberg

Jobs Plentiful (vs ‘hard to get’) has jumped back into positive territory for the first time since March, and hopes that the stock market will be higher in 12 months also jumped to its highest since March.

Emir Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah, the 91-year-old ruler of Kuwait, died Tuesday in a US hospital, according to media reports.

Born in 1929, the Sheikh is widely regarded as the architect of modern Kuwaiti foreign policy, and his death comes amid a major transition in the Middle East, as the UAE takes steps to normalize relations with Israel.

He served as foreign minister for nearly 40 years between 1963 and 2003, when he became prime minister of Kuwait, before becoming Emir in 2006 following the death of Sheikh Jaber al-Sabah. The longtime ruler’s death is not unexpected: the country announced he had suffered an unspecfied medical “set back” in August 2019. In July, he sought treatment in a US hospital after undergoing surgery.

Many Kuwaitis were informed of his death when local television cut to Quaranic verses on Tuesday, a move that typically signifies the death of a senior member of Kuwait’s ruling family.

In the past, 83-year-old Crown Prince Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah, an elder statesman and the deceased emir’s half-brother, has been  appointed acting ruler when the Sheikh was indisposed, as per the country’s constitutional law. Sheikh Nawaf has held high office for decades, including top positions. As ruler, his brother pushed a policy of diplomacy to solve regional problems, while also leading the 2017 boycott of Qatar by members of the GCC.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

ECB Punishes Banks With Negative Interest Rates.

Please consider Commercial Banks under Persistent Negative Rates by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Do extended periods of negative policy interest rates continue to encourage commercial bank lending? A large panel of European and Japanese banks provides evidence on the impact of negative rates over different lengths of time.

Analysis suggests that both bank profitability and bank lending activity erode more the longer such negative policy rates continue, primarily due to banks’ reluctance to pass negative rates along to retail depositors. This appears to negate one of the main arguments for moving policy rates below the zero bound.

Our results suggest that banks can only mitigate losses on interest income through charging fees on deposits and enjoying capital gains on securities holdings for short periods of negative interest rates. As durations of negative policy rates lengthen, the gains from these adjustments become increasingly inadequate to offset the growing losses on interest income due to banks’ limited abilities to pass along negative rates to depositors. The result is that, as negative rates persist, they drag on bank profitability even more.

The data clearly show that losses on interest income accelerate over time and begin to outweigh the gains from noninterest income. As a result, the impact on overall profitability falls below zero. Our regression analysis for the impact on overall bank profitability becomes negative on average with statistical significance after five years under negative interest rates.

No Surprise

I talked about this six years ago when the ECB first went to negative rates.

Statements I made then still apply,

• The Fed paid interest on excess reserves slowly recapitalizing banks over time.

• The ECB charged interest on excess reserves draining already stressed banks of capital.

I question the study’s statement “the impact on overall bank profitability becomes negative on average with statistical significance after five years under negative interest rates.”

Indeed, their own chart shows negative impacts after a year. 

Impact of Negative Policy

Lose-Lose Setup

In short bank lending suffers after one year and profitability suffers at increasing rates over time.

It is for this reason I have often stated the Fed would not be stupid enough to opt for negative rates.  

The effective lower bound is at least somewhat above zero. 

Effective Lower Bound

Please see my September 25, 2019 post In Search of the Effective Lower Bound

The Fed is no longer talking about zero-bound but effective lower bound. What’s the difference? Where is it?

Effective Lower Bound is the point beyond which further monetary policy in the same direction is counterproductive.

I propose the Bank of Japan and the ECB are already below ELB. I further propose the ELB can never be negative but it can be well above zero.

Negative interest rate policy can never work as it violates basic economic principles on time preference and the time value of money.

Moreover, a dive below the ELB supports the position I presented on September 23, 2019: Negative Interest Rates Are Social Political Poison

Deeper Down the Rabbit Hole

Yesterday, I noted Draghi Open to MMT and a People’s QE

Every attempt to fix the perceived problem of “too low inflation” goes deeper and deeper down the rabbit hole.

It’s economic madness, yet, here we are.

It took a multi-year study for the San Francisco Fed to come to the right conclusion.

That’s a step in the right direction. Many of these studies come to the wrong conclusion.

The solution is to let the free market set interest rates rather than a tail-chasing consortium of economic wizards who have never spotted a bubble or a recession in real time.

The AP just reported that, in a landmark decision that will inevitably heap more scrutiny on the grand jury’s decision in the Breonna Taylor case, Kentucky AG Daniel Cameron has agreed to comply with a judge’s order to release grand jury proceedings from the case after a juror filed a motion on Monday demanding the materials be released.

According to media reports, the unnamed juror filed the motion on Monday seeking release of the records because they felt Cameron had misled the public during his press briefing announcing the grand jury’s decision to charge one of the officers indicted in Taylor’s death with wanton reckless for firing gunshots into a neighboring apartment.

Breaking: A member of the Breonna Taylor grand jury just filed a remarkable motion asking a judge to release the entire proceedings of the grand jury. The motion strongly suggests that Attorney General Cameron’s public comments contradict what was presented to the grand jury.

— Radley Balko (@radleybalko) September 28, 2020

As the tweet above notes, the motion to release the proceedings was filed by a member of the Grand Jury in a motion that suggested the AG’s public comments about the case didn’t align with the evidence presented to the Grand Jury. It essentially accuses AG Daniel Cameron of manipulating the outcome of the decision by, among other things, limiting the discussion of charges.

During the press conference where Cameron announced the charges, the juror alleges that the AG misrepresented what evidence was shown to the grand jury. It might be an attempt to deflect blame amid a vicious public backlash to the decision. On the other hand, many on the left will likely take it as proof that Cameron tampered in the decision in an attempt to bolster his own political ambitions.

It’s worth noting that many legal experts doubted the officers would be charged with murder in Taylor’s death due to the fact that her boyfriend fired first. Kentucky has strict ‘stand your ground’ laws.

Here’s the complete motion…

Scanned.motion.gj.Release (1) by Zerohedge on Scribd

…We now wait for the grand jury materials to be released by the AG’s office, or leaked to the NYT, whichever happens first.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Rumble in the Jungle; Thrilla near Manilla

First and foremost today, markets will be focusing on the first (and, some Twitter wisdom would have it, potentially the last) presidential election debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

This has all the makings of a classic to rival The Rumble in the Jungle between Foreman and Ali. Except in this case, almost everyone will be watching what they believe might be The Bungle in the (media) Jungle. Indeed, supporters of *both* candidates will be transformed into nervous parents at an expensive Ivy League prep school on the evening of their very young child’s first-ever school play: rictus smiles and silent prayers as the curtain rises that their special one makes them proud rather than having a tantrum, forgetting their lines, falling asleep, or generally humiliating themselves. After all, neither man has a reputation for eloquence, remaining calm at all times, clearly getting their point across to neutrals, or remaining gaffe free.

The expectations for Biden have been set extremely low – but he has been doing debates for 50 years, so there is bound to be some deep muscle memory there along with the “I am the guy who…” and “C’mon man!” and “Malarkey” shtick. Trump has only had a few rounds of real debate in his life: against Clinton in 2016 and against his Republican rivals prior to that, and the shock jock routine is hardly new at this point.

We already know what the debate topics will be (and let’s assume neither candidate knows what the actual questions are, unlike in 2016). Yet that does not mean we won’t be hearing about whatever each candidate feels will floor his opponent best, for example: Ukraine; Russia; China; problematic children; things said to or about soldiers; things said or done about the coronavirus; the Supreme Court; tax – and who wrote the tax code; a failure to provide decent healthcare options to millions of Americans; election fraud. Who said the country was divided, eh? Anyway world, sit yourself down, get your popcorn in, and let the spectacle unfold.

Meanwhile, most of the press has decided on the potential showdown(s) they don’t want to talk about much.

First is the risk of an escalation in fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The former is considering triggering its defence treaty with Russia, where President Putin has called for an immediate ceasefire; the latter is supported by Turkey’s President Erdogan,…who has called for the liberation of all disputed territory held by Armenians (meaning Nagorno-Karabakh). TRY remains close to record lows at time of writing, and just for good measure Turkey is today undertaking naval drills close to Greek waters again to “encourage cooperation” in proposed talks on gas exploration. RUB is also under pressure on fears of further sanctions due to Belarus, the poisoning of Navalny, and the fact that if the word ‘Russia’ comes up tonight in US presidential debate buzzword bingo, everyone in the Kremlin drinks. They know that Iran, according to Bloomberg, is on the cusp of another set of biting US sanctions to effectively seal it off from the rest of the world financially.

Second is what one would think might be the front-page headline. As China conducts naval drills in four seas simultaneously –because how else does one focus on a post-virus consumer-led, green-friendly economic recovery?– the editor of The Global Times (who I think would have made a great outside choice as a host for a US presidential debate) has tweeted the following:

“Based on information I learned, Trump govt could take the risk to attack China’s islands in the South China Sea with MQ-9 Reaper drones to aid his reelection campaign. If it happens, the PLA will definitely fight back fiercely and let those who start the war pay a heavy price.”

I can perhaps understand why this is not getting much coverage. The Global Times is excitable. It has said similar things about both Taiwan and India very recently, for example, and even about Australia earlier this year too. Yet without any wish to go all guns and gold and duct tape, this is either a smoking gun (or MQ-9) pointing at the risk of WW3 starting from the US side, and perhaps imminently if Trump bungles in the media jungle tonight; or it is China talking up such risks when no US threat is on the table, which unnecessarily escalates geopolitical risk too.

At the very least, it has to be dismissed as ‘just’ North Korea style media, which does not sit well with all the other financial market China stories about designer this and disruption that, and dynamic growth the other. Then again, the US is hardly short of wing-nut media, I suppose, who are all about to have a field day.

Anyway, less than 20 hours now as I type until the big show begins. The Trump-Biden one, I mean.

But you won’t be able to watch it in a group in public in the Netherlands now that a UK-style 10pm restaurant and bar closure has just been introduced for three weeks, along with a stop to all spectators at sports matches, as Europe shows that it is still in synch with the UK on more than just a potential Brexit trade deal.

Perhaps next the Dutch will be sealing newly-arrived students into their halls of residence, telling them they may not be able to go home for Christmas, and throwing in the odd packet of crisps and candy bar through the window while charging them GBP9,000 a year fees for the experience, and rent on top.