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By EconMatters
Last Hurrah
Everybody knew the GDP number was going to be revised down on this reading, and that it probably gets revised up for the next reading, and Bond Traders used the Revision in first quarter GDP to take the 10-Year Yield down to 2.4% on a nice push, but this required a whole lot of ammunition, and as soon as Europe started to close at 10 am central time (Europe close is 10:30 am for practical purposes) the Traders needed to start closing some of these positions.
Bottom in the Bond Market
The 10-Year then went 7 basis points higher to actually end the day up, which in trader`s terms is an outside reversal, or a very bullish sign for 10-year yields going forward, this effectively is the bottom for the 10-year bond yield for 2014, 2015, 2016 and beyond.
Read More > The Bond Market Explained for CNBC
Mark this date in your calendars as the last time the 10-year Yield was this low, we mentioned in an earlier article about this market being a coiled spring, well just sit back and watch the carnage as everyone tries to run for the exits at the same time in the bond market. Grab some popcorn because this is going to be funny over the coming months and years as yields continue to rise, some poor sap actually bought a 10-Year Bond today at 2.41% Yield, and thought this was a good investment.
Stop Trading on 3 Month Old Data
Bonds should have never gotten this low, everyone and their mother is underestimating inflation going forward, and the idiots on the Federal Reserve are so behind the curve, still talking about data 3 months old. By the time they realize we not only have food and energy inflation, but that wage inflation is coming in the next three months if not sooner, the absolute wrong-footed Federal Reserve & Bond Market are in for the shock of their lifetimes.
Massive Outflows Coming in Bond Funds
Literally bond funds are going to see such outflows, there are going to be money managers and hedge funds going out of business on this chasing yield trade blowing up in their faces. Margin clerks will be tapping a bunch of folks on the shoulders the next 6 months and beyond on this massive unwind in bond markets.
I have never seen a market where so much money, and the consensus view is so wrong on this trade; the unpreparedness, the fact that not only do these people Not have an Exit plan, they don`t even know they need one on this trade.
This is like the housing market can never go down logic; that interest rates will never go to 4% in their lifetime unpreparedness. Remember the Fed Funds Rate was 5.5% right before the financial crisis in 2007, this is hardly a century ago, it occurred in the last 10 years.
Federal Reserve Members are Clueless
I used strong language when I called the Federal Reserve members idiots, but the more I hear these people talk about the economy, this includes Bernanke now that he is retired, I cannot believe these are the best and brightest economists that America has to offer, because they are totally clueless. Even the hawks on the Fed are behind the data curve by at least 3 months, inflation is here, they better start raising rates next week.
Read More > Is Janet Yellen Smarter Than Me?
Equities Running on Inflation Power: Forget Valuations at this Stage
This is what the stock market is telling everyone, and I like everyone was waiting for a summer pullback, a bunch of Hedge Funds starting shorting the market in anticipation, going long bonds; but inflationcannot be held back once it takes hold, and equities are off to the races, there will be a short squeeze in equities going forward.
Once people realize what is going on with the reality that this cheap money has finally reached escape velocity with nowhere to go, and bonds are no longer an option once the realization that inflation is going to force the Fed`s hands, all this money is going to finally rotate out of bonds and into equities. We could literally see 2500 in the S&P 500, while the Fed tries to soak up this excess liquidity in the financial system.
I am not sure how it will play out in equities once Bond yields spike, but where does the money go? Does everyone just run to cash? There are two things I am solid on however, one is that bond yields are going to explode higher, and the other is that volatility is also going to go much higher, so who knows how this is all going to play out in the equity markets. Maybe bonds and stocks sell off together.
Yield Trade Pushed Down Volatility
The abundance of money chasing the yield trade has pushed down volatility, and as the yield trade unwinds there are going to be some volatility traders that go out of business as well. I just cannot fathom how so many investors and traders are currently poorly positioned for one of the biggest moves in markets coming down the pike since the tulip market collapse.
Bond yields are in a bubble all over the planet, and first you have food and energy inflation, then you have wage inflation to pay for the rising food and energy costs due to the final piece of the puzzle in the tightening labor market. The US exported a bunch of inflation to emerging markets over the last five years, now it is our turn to experience inflation as a result of too much cheap money in the system.
We are currently right at the tipping point of inflation, and nobody sees it at the Federal Reserve, why do you think there are all these minimum wage initiatives? It is because a loaf of bread costs $3-$5 dollars in the United States depending upon the market. Of course wage inflation is going to be the next shoe to drop!
Talking about an Exit Strategy, Isn`t an Exit Strategy
I am sorry it is very apparent that not only is the Fed behind the inflation curve, they literally are making Fed policy up as they go along, they have no exit strategy whatsoever, and more painfully obvious is that Wall Street doesn`t realize that the Fed has no exit strategy. The learning curve is going to be painful as always for Bond Holders, who will be the last fool to own a bond in their portfolio? There will always be some Bag Holder in financial markets, and this time it is Bond Investors or should I say Yield Chasers!
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Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,
Just as we can't eat iPods, we can't subsist on official reassurances that the Fed and inflation are both benign.
This chart shows the Fed is indeed fueling inflation by driving oil higher. Official denials are to be expected, as are ginned-up inflation statistics; but just as we can't eat iPods, we also can't subsist on official reassurances that the Fed and inflation are both benign.
via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1oRqLCv Tyler Durden
May's preliminary UMich confidence print of 81.8 was the biggest miss to expectations in 8 years. In the two weeks since then, the 'economists' have ratcheted back their exuberance to an expectation of 82.5… and still it missed at 81.9. So two weeks of exuberant equity markets have done nothing to soothe the consumer. The Current conditions sub-index tumbled to its lowest since Nov 2013 (and the outlook dropped also). Stock pushers are going to need higher highs if the dream of multiple expansion is to live on….So just as reminder, against the initial expectations, May's consumer confidence missed by the most in 8 years.
Of course – as we have noted previously – – confidence is the key number for continued exuberance in hope-fueled multiple-expansion…
But, it's all about confidence… investors will not be willing to pay increasing multiples unless they are confident that the future streams of earnings are sustainable and forecastable… And simply put, the current levels of Consumer Sentiment need to almost double for the US equity market to approach historical multiple valuation levels…
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March’s miss in Chicago PMI is now a dim and distant aberation as April and now May’s Purchasing Managers Index surged to 65.5 – just shy of its Oct 2013 highs. As champgen corks fly and the world celebrates “we’re back baby” – we hesitate to burst that exuberant bubble and note that production fell, the employment sub-index fell below its 12-month average (but that doesn’t matter, right) and prices paid surged by their most in 5 years (that awkward margin-consuming inflation stoking thing).
As MNI concludes:
“We’ve had false dawns before, but the long run of strength in the survey, coupled with other more positive economic data, suggests growth is becoming more entrenched.”
Yep – no false dawn this time… we are sure of it.
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Earlier today, as part of its latest macro markets research roundup, Goldman let a phrase slip, which probably better than anything we have seen in the past few years, captures just how truly broken the “market” is. To wit: “it is important to remember that weak global growth is generally negative for risky assets.” That Goldman even had to remind its clients of this dramatic observation, puts to rest any doubts about just how much central banks’ central-planning has perverted the cost/benefit analysis of the world.
From Goldman:
After the price action of the last 12 months, we often encounter the perception that weak DM growth and low US yields are unambiguously good for EM assets. Of course, as discussed above, there are regimes where lower yields are clearly beneficial for EMs, especially those triggered by significant policy stimulus – notwithstanding stronger growth rates. But, in our view, the macro outcomes that can drive yields firmly lower from here are more consistent with significantly weaker growth outturns, whether from a renewed lurch into contraction in parts of the Euro area, a failure of US growth to maintain the current momentum, or even a further downshift in China growth (which is already tracking weaker than our forecasts).
And in this case it is important to remember that weak global growth is generally negative for risky assets, including in EM. To benchmark asset performance in periods of weak global activity, we analyse asset returns in periods in which the global manufacturing PMI – a proxy for real-time global activity – is falling. Loosely, there have been around ten such episodes since 2000, with varying durations and degrees of intensity – although precise definitions of these periods are somewhat subjective. The average fall was 5.2 PMI points, or 2.7pt outside of the 2001 and 2008 recessions. Despite the heterogeneity, asset returns over this period provide useful guidance on the distribution of risks to EM assets.
Luckily, courtesy of another side effect of central-planning none of this really matters: here is why from Deutsche Bank:
It doesn’t seem that good or bad data notably alters the path of assets one way or another at the moment as central bank liquidity continues to trump everything.
Correct, and yet ironic that it has taken the big banks over 5 years to confirm what we first said in early 2009.
via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1roFf1d Tyler Durden
Long-dated bond yields are lower this morning but that is not stopping ‘them’ from smashing JPY lower to try to spark yet another pre-US-open ramp in stocks to run stops and get the momentum going once again (as they have for the last 6 days)… except today – so far – it’s not working…
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Seth MacFarlane finally appears in the flesh in A
Million Ways to Die in the West. Unfortunately, the flesh is
weak. As he has demonstrated in the long-running Family
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stepping into the spotlight and directing himself in a parody
western he cowrote, MacFarlane’s anachronistic joke-cracking
persona seems too small-screen to anchor a full-scale movie. Loder
writes that Maleficent—a live-action take on the studio’s
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enterprise, an often-gorgeous kids’ movie featuring two strong
female characters and dominated by Angelina Jolie in a performance
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Last month, when we noted the massive surge in Personal Spending which was funded entirely by the depletion of personal savings, we said that “since spending was so much higher than income for one more month, at least according to the bean counters, the savings rate tumbled and at 3.8% (down from 4.2% in February), was the second lowest since before the Lehman failure with the only exception of January 2013 after the withholding tax rule changeover. So for all those sellside economists who are praying that the March spending spree, funded mostly from savings, will continue into Q2 (because remember March is in Q1, which as we already know had an abysmal 0.1% GDP growth rate), we have one question: where will the money come from to pay for this ongoing spending spree?” Turns out the answer was… nowhere.
Moments ago the April Personal Income and Spending data was released. And while the Personal Income came in line with expectations at 0.3%, down from 0.5%, it was the Spending that posted its first contraction since April 2013, dropping at a -0.1% pace, missing expectations of a 0.2% increase (the biggest since January 2010), and a collapse from the March Personal Spending bonanza which was revised upward to +1.0%.
In short, this was the biggest monthly drop in real consumer spending since September 2009!
It is also simple math, because when your saving rate tumbles (on a revised basis) to the lowest since Lehman, there simply is no money to spend.
The full history of US personal disposable income and spending:
The good news: the savings rate did finally post a modest rebound, from 3.6% to 4.0%. Which is still the second lowest number since 2008!
Bottom line: today’s spending number was good for the final revision of Q1 GDP. Sadly, it was s very bad for Q2 GDP and for so-called economic momentum. Expect to see a slew of downward GDP revisions from the Penguin crew momentarily.
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