Forget What You Think You Know About Crowd Behavior

“There’s nothing like a riot to bring out the amateur
psychologist in all of us,” Michael Bond
writes
in Aeon. He’s referring to the idea that people
lose their reason, even their individual identities, in a crowd—a
notion that thrives in punditry and pop culture even as
sociologists and psychologists keep giving us reasons to believe it
isn’t true. Reviewing the research, Bond makes the case “not only
that mindless irrationality is rare within crowds, but also that
co-operation and altruism are the norm when lives are at
stake.”

At one point, Bond goes further than Reason‘s
oft-made
point
that crowds during
disasters
generally stay
calm
and
do not panic
, arguing that crowds can be too calm:

Maybe not so madding after all.When the hijacked planes hit the World Trade
Center towers in New York on 11 September 2001, most of those
inside procrastinated rather than heading for the nearest exit.
Even those who managed to escape waited an average of six minutes
before moving to the stairs. Some hung around for half an hour,
awaiting more information, collecting things to take with them,
going to the bathroom, finishing emails, or making phone
calls.

Likewise, say researchers, passengers have died in accidents
because they just didn’t try to get out. Take the aircraft fire at
Manchester airport in the UK on 22 August 1985, when 55 people died
because they stayed in their seats amid the flames. John Leach, who
studies disaster psychology at the University of Oslo, says a
shared state of bewilderment might be to blame. Contrary to popular
belief that crowds always panic in emergencies, large groups mill
around longer than small groups since it takes them more time to
come up with a plan.

And in a piece of good news, some officials—not all, alas—are
starting to take this social science into account when they try to
police crowds:

This picture is here to illustrate the concept "soccer riot." Enjoy.[Clifford] Stott and his
collaborators presented their research to the Portuguese Public
Security Police (PSP) before the European football championships,
scheduled for Portugal for the first time in 2004. They advised the
PSP to drop the riot-squad tactics used at most previous
tournaments in favour of a lower-profile, firm-but-friendly
approach. The Portuguese were receptive. They developed a training
programme to ensure that all PSP officers understood the theory and
how to translate it into non-confrontational policing. The result
was an almost complete absence of disorder at England games during
Euro 2004.

Today, the social identity model of crowd behaviour is the
framework by which all Union of European Football Associations
(UEFA) matches in Europe are policed—though in Russia and in
eastern Europe it is still only sporadically applied.

Read the rest
here
.

Bonus link: This isn’t
the first time
we’ve noted Bond’s writing on this subject.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1trpkuw
via IFTTT

Another Blow Against Cops Who Think They Have a Right Not to Be Recorded

Three years ago,
in Glik
v. Cunniffe
, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 1st
Circuit upheld a
man’s First Amendment right to record an arrest on Boston
Common. Last week, in Gericke
v. Weare
, the court upheld a woman’s First
Amendment right to record a traffic stop in Weare, New Hampshire.
The combination of these two decisions is a powerful rebuke to cops
who continue to harass
people with bogus wiretapping charges when they dare to capture
images or sound of police encounters on their cellphones.

In the 2011 case, Simon Glik was charged with violating
Massachusetts’ broad wiretap law, which makes it a crime to
willfully commit[] an interception…of any wire or
oral 
communication,” after he
recorded 
an arrest in which he believed police
were using excessive force. The 1st Circuit ruled that “a citizen’s
right to film government officials, including law enforcement
officers, in the discharge of their duties in a public space is a
basic, vital, and well-established liberty safeguarded by the First
Amendment.” Hence
 “Glik was
exercising clearly established First Amendment rights in filming
the officers in a public space.”

In the case decided last week, Carla Gericke took out her
cellphone after police pulled over her friend, whose car she was
following to his house, and announced that she was recording the
stop. The 1st Circuit ruled that the First Amendment right
recognized in Glik also applies to traffic stops, although
it may be reasonably restricted in that context to protect the
safety of officers and the public. In this case, Gericke says
police never asked her to stop recording or to leave the scene;
they just arrested her afterward. “Based on Gericke’s version of
the facts,” the court said, “
she was exercising a
clearly established First 
Amendment right when
she attempted to film the traffic stop in
the 
absence of a police order to stop filming or
leave the area.” 

New Hampshire’s wiretap statute, unlike the Massachusetts
law, applies only to situations in which the people who are
recorded have a reasonable expectation of privacy. The 1st Circuit
noted that police officers performing their duties in public have
no such expectation, especially when the person recording them
announces her intention to do so. Furthermore, because of a
technical glitch, Gericke did not actually capture any video of her
friend’s detention. These facts help explain why local prosecutors
ended up dropping the charges against Gericke. The cops who
arrested her were so keen to punish her perceived disrespect that
they not only violated her constitutional rights; they misapplied
the statute.

What’s especially significant about both of these cases is that
they allowed lawsuits against the police officers themselves to
proceed. The court decided that the officers did not qualify for
immunity because the rights they violated were clearly established
at the time of the arrests. Cops who continue to
mistakenly believe they have a right not to be recorded while on
duty should understand that they cannot hide behind their real or
professed ignorance of what the Constitution requires.

In a case that J.D. Tuccille
noted
a couple of weeks ago, police in Chicopee, Massachusetts,
charged Karen Dziewit with wiretapping after she recorded her
own arrest for disorderly conduct and possessing an open container
of alcohol. Unlike Glik and Gericke, who openly recorded the cops,
Dziewit did so surreptitiously, but that detail should not affect
the constitutional analysis. The 1st Circuit recognized a First
Amendment right to “film government officials, including law
enforcement officers, in the discharge of their duties in a public
space.” That description clearly applies to the officers who
arrested Dziewit. The fact that they did not realize she was
recording them does not matter. Officers should take it granted
that people may be recording them whenever they are performing
their duties in public, and if they did it probably would
improve their behavior

[via
Ars Technica
]

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1k4TuEm
via IFTTT

No Holders Barred: DOJ Slams BNP With Multi-Billion Dollar Penalty

Francois Hollande is not having a good week – disastrous elections over the weekend, followed by record high numbers of jobseekers (destroying his promise to deliver jobs), and now his banking system is under attack; as the WSJ reports:

  • *US JUSTICE DEPT SEEKS >$10B BNP PENALTY FOR SANCTIONS EVASION: WSJ

A final resolution (and a guilty plea) of the years long investigation of the French bank is likely weeks away, WSJ notes but it does remain ironic that in flexing his enforcement muscles, DoJ’s Eric Holder is about to crucify yet another non-US bank.

 

As The WSJ reports,

The U.S. Justice Department is pushing BNP Paribas SA  to pay more than $10 billion to resolve a criminal probe into allegations it evaded U.S. sanctions against Iran and other countries for years, which would represent one of the largest penalties ever imposed on a bank, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

 

A final resolution of the yearslong investigation of the French bank is likely weeks away, and it’s possible the ultimate settlement amount could total far less than $10 billion. BNP is looking to pay less than $8 billion, according to the people familiar with the settlement discussions, although a person close to the bank said its negotiators have never mentioned the $8 billion figure in talks with U.S. authorities.

 

BNP and the U.S. authorities also remain locked in negotiations over whether the bank will temporarily lose the ability to transfer money into and out of the U.S., the people said.

 

Prosecutors are continuing to try and extract a guilty plea from the bank and, in recent negotiations, have pointed to the muted market reaction in the wake of Credit Suisse AG’s admission to conspiring to aid tax evasion as evidence that a guilty plea by BNP would not be disastrous, according to a person familiar with prosecutors’ thinking.

So to get some context, DOJ’s Eric Holder, frustrated at allegations he refuses to take legal action against banks, is doing his best to destroy one particular bank: a French one, not to be confused with an American bank of course. After all those still pull all the strings at the Department of “Justice.” However, over in Europe, where first it was Credit Suisse and now French BNP is about to get crucified, US enforcement has never been stronger.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1wttVRv Tyler Durden

Bush’s Anti-Terror Chief: Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld Committed War Crimes In Iraq

Bush’s top counter-terrorism official for his first year as president – Richard Clarke – tells Democracy Now that Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld committed war crimes in Iraq … and that they can be tried at the Hague:

 

(Clarke retired in protest at the start of the Iraq war.)

Clarke is right:

  • Indeed, it is not too late to charge Bush, Cheney or Rumsfeld for war crimes even under American law

And – as odd as it may sound – it’s not too late to impeach Bush, Cheney or Rumsfeld … even though they have are no longer in office.

Of course, Obama is also committing war crimes.  For example, the Obama administration has ordered numerous indiscriminate drone strikes … which are war crimes (more here and here).  And torture is also apparently continuing under Obama. See this and this.

And Obama should also be impeached.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1pByggG George Washington

Jared Polis on Gov’t Snooping Your Old Emails: ‘We don’t even know the extent to which this power has been used or abused’

Did you know that the government can rifle through your opened
emails without a warrant if they happen to be at least 180 days
old? I had somehow forgotten that unhappy fact until yesterday,
when Rep.
Jared Polis
(D-Colo.) came on
The Independents
to talk about his Email
Privacy Act
. Watch
below
:

A treasure trove of past Reason writing on the issue can be
found here.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1lUJby9
via IFTTT

Spot The Odd Job Market Out

When the BLS reports the May job number in one week’s time, it will mark a historic threshold: this will be the report when the total number of jobs lost during the financial crisis at the national level is finally recovered, and the US has the same number of people employed as it did during the last peak in January 2008 (even if the number of Americans not in the labor force has increase by 13.5 million since then). However, as is always the case in a as diverse as the US, what happens as the national level is very distinct from regional developments.

In this case we bring our readers’ attention to a chart from a recent NY Fed presentation showing the “recovery” in the employment both at the national level where as noted the thick red line is about to cross the X axis, as well as three distinct MSA: 1) New York City, 2) Upstate New York so very different from Manhattan, and 3) Northern New Jersey.

Which brings us to today’s rhetorical pop quiz: spot the odd labor market out, one dominated by the financial industry, also known as the place which has benefited by far the most from QE, which may have failed most of America, but certainly has unfailed America’s financial industry, where things have never been better.

Source: NY Fed, h/t @RudyHavenstein




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gEF8d1 Tyler Durden

“The Bond Bear Is About To Emerge From Hibernation” BofAML Warns

Get ready to change your thinking on US Treasuries. The larger bear trend is set to emerge,” is the ominous warning from BofAML’s MacNeil Curry. As yields keep tumbling lower, he believes, US Treasury yields are either testing or fast approaching levels from which we should see a base and eventual resumption of the larger, long-term bear trend.

 

As BofAML explains…

US Treasury yields are either testing or fast approaching levels from which we should see a base and eventual resumption of the larger, long-term bear trend (or, in the case of 2s, a push to the 1yr contracting range highs). In 30yr yields, the zone to watch is 3.280%/3.253%, in 10yr yields the zone is 2.420%/2.346%, while, in 2s, the basing zone was 32bps (Our outlook on 2s HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE ROLL – the evidence developed on the May-20 reversal from 32.3bps). Even in 5s, further yield weakness should not break below the Feb-14 low at 1.420%, before resuming higher.

This is a stark reassessment of our initial thought process, where we thought 5s could fall to 1.224%/1.248%. However, price action in both 5s and the rest of the curve says that is NOW VERY UNLIKELY. Back above 1.556% in 5s confirms the base and turn.

 

Meanwhile, FOR NOW, in 30s, bears regain control on a break above YTD trendline support (3.443%), while, in 10s, bears need a break above 2.568% (the old Feb-04 low).

NOW, at this stage, we are not advocating going short, but YOU MUST GET READY. THE LONG-TERM BEAR TREND IS POISED TO EMERGE FROM HIBERNATION. Unfortunately, $/¥ bulls should remain very cautious, absent a break above 102.69, preferably the early April highs at 104.13. The risks remain to the downside for a closing break of the 200d (101.38/39), to 99.37 and, potentially, below.

Yes, we are looking for a breakdown in the positive correlation between $/¥ and US Treasury yields.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1pBtj7G Tyler Durden

Universities Cater to Intolerance, Cancel Controversial Speakers at Alarming Rate

Harvard UniversityIn the wake of the successful campaigns to
prevent the commencement addresses of three high-profile
speakers—Condoleezza Rice at Rutgers University,
Ayaan Hirsi-Ali
at Brandeis University and Christine Lagarde at
Smith College—many censorship-weary spectators of higher education
fretted that “disinvitation season” seemed worse than ever this
year.

The Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE) now has
data to back up those fears. Since 2000, an increasing number of
campus speakers faced both informal and formal muzzling at the
hands of students, faculty and administrators eager to disrupt the
presentation of viewpoints they don’t like, according
to FIRE’s latest report
.

“Disinvitation efforts are not new, but our research indicates
that they are dramatically increasing,” the report found.

FIRE noted that some prospective campus speakers voluntarily
canceled their speeches after students and faculty protested their
inclusion. Others were formally disinvited by university
administrators. In some instances, speakers attempted to deliver
their remarks but were silenced by hecklers. While this third kind
of intolerance—the abject kind—was rarest, it occurred more
frequently over the last few years.

While a speaker’s conservative views on gay marriage, abortion
and the War on Terror were most likely to yield a disinvitation,
left-of-center speakers such as former Department of Homeland
Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and activist Bill Ayers have
also endured repeated silencing.

A key finding: Public and private universities disinvited
speakers at nearly equal rates. As the report explains:

Disinvitation incidents occurred in remarkably even numbers
among public colleges and universities (68), private secular
institutions (59), and private religious institutions (65). The
split between the types of institutions is surprisingly close,
revealing a systemic problem—some students and faculty at colleges
and universities of all types appear increasingly unwilling to
allow those with whom they disagree to speak and advocate for their
position on campus.

Private universities are well within their rights to cater to
political correctness and rescind speaking invitations, of course.
And students at private and public institutions have the right to
protest speakers with whom they disagree.

Even so, colleges that cultivate an aura of knee-jerk hostility
toward different ways of thinking are depriving students of one of
the cardinal benefits of campus life: the opportunity to interact
with unfamiliar perspectives and engage new ideas. They are also

subtly teaching students
to fear controversy and abhor
dissent.

Given such an unfriendly environment for free expression, it’s
not surprising that some students now believe the syllabi for their
English classes
should come with warning labels
that the works of Shakespeare
and Homer may cause emotional distress.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1gEA74m
via IFTTT

Dust Bowl Conditions Have Returned To Kansas, Oklahoma And North Texas

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

In early 1978, a song entitled "Dust in the Wind" by a rock band known as Kansas shot up the Billboard charts.  When Kerry Livgren penned those now famous lyrics, he probably never imagined that Dust Bowl conditions would return to his home state just a few short decades later.  Sadly, that is precisely what is happening.

When American explorers first traveled through north Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, they referred to it as "the Great American Desert" and they doubted that anyone would ever be able to farm it.  But as history has shown, when that area gets plenty of precipitation the farming is actually quite good.  Unfortunately, the region is now in the midst of a devastating multi-year drought which never seems to end.  Right now, 56 percent of Texas, 64 percent of Oklahoma and 80 percent of Kansas are experiencing "severe drought", and the long range forecast for this upcoming summer is not good.

In fact, some areas in the region are already drier than they were during the worst times of the 1930s.  And the relentless high winds that are plaguing that area of the country are kicking up some hellacious dust storms.  For example, some parts of Kansas experienced a two day dust storm last month.  And Lubbock, Texas was hit be a three day dust storm last month.  We are witnessing things that we have not seen since the depths of the Dust Bowl days, and unless the region starts getting a serious amount of rain, things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get any better.

Over the past two months, very high winds and bone dry conditions have made the lives of ordinary farmers in the state of Kansas extraordinarily difficult.  Just check out the following excerpt from a recent article posted on Agriculture.com

The dust has settled, but for how long no one can be sure. At any moment, the winds may blow, moving the topsoil — soil that took Mother Nature generations to craft — even farther from its origin.

 

One farmer reckons that precious topsoil, native to his farm in Kearny County, Kansas, now sits in a field at least 200 miles away, blown there by the relentless winds of March and April 2014.

 

Affecting counties in western Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, and eastern Colorado, it was reminiscent of what folks in the same region faced 80 years ago.

 

"There were several days we couldn’t see 100 yards in front of us," says Tom Hauser, a farmer near Ulysses, Kansas. "We didn’t know where the dust was coming from. It was moving in here from somewhere else, just like it did back in the 1930s."

When heavy winds blow day after day but there is no rain, it creates ideal conditions for dust storms.  According to the same article that I just mentioned, the average wind speed in the little community of Syracuse, Kansas has been over 50 miles an hour so far this year…

Since the beginning of 2014, the average maximum daily wind speed in Syracuse, Kansas, is 50.6 miles per hour, according to the Kansas State University Weather Data Library. In that same time, Syracuse has received just 1 inch of total precipitation.

 

That is a recipe for disaster.

 

“I’ve had to chisel more ground this year than the last 20 years put together,” says Gary Millershaski, who farms near Lakin in Kearny County. Chiseling the ground roughs it up, and helps prevent soil from blowing – at least for a little while.

I couldn't imagine living somewhere with such high winds day after day.

But this is what farmers in the High Plains have to deal with on a constant basis.

And needless to say, when things are this dry those kinds of winds can kick up some immense dust storms.  In fact, a dust storm in late April was so large that it covered most of the region…

Monday's dust storm was so large it covered most of Kansas, western Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle and eastern Colorado, said weather service meteorologist Jeff Hutton in Dodge City. Tuesday's dust cloud was more localized, only found in some parts of Kansas.

 

"That is what happens when you get drought, a lack of vegetation and you have wind," Hutton said. "I mean, that is just the nature of the High Plains. And then that dirt that was lofted is eventually carried into eastern Kansas."

When one of these dust storms strikes, you want to get indoors and stay there.  It isn't even safe to be driving.  When you can't even see five feet in front of you, the odds of getting into a fatal accident rise exponentially.  Just check out what happened earlier this year near the little town of Liberal, Kansas

At least 12 vehicles were involved in an pileup accident near Liberal, Kansas.

 

The accident happened around 1:40 p.m., nine miles southwest of Liberal. It appears that blowing dust limited visibility so severely that it cause vehicles to not see each other until it was too late and they collided. One report states that visibility was less than five feet.

 

According to Chief Anthony Adams of the Tyrone Fire Department in Oklahoma, six of the vehicles involved were cars and trucks, the other six were tractor trailers.

As bad as things are in Kansas right now, the truth is that things are probably even worse down in Texas.  Amarillo has had 10 dust storms so far this year, and Lubbock has already had 15 days of dust storms in 2014…

The number of dust storms seems to rise with the length of the drought. Amarillo has had 10 this year; it had none in 2010. The city is about 10 percent drier now than the 42 months that ended April 30, 1936, and drier than the state’s record drought in the 1950s.

 

Lubbock already has seen 15 days with dust storms this year, the National Weather Service said.

And remember, we haven't even gotten to the summer months yet.

As conditions get even worse in the heartland of America, it is going to end up deeply affecting all of us.  The farmers and ranchers that live there provide a tremendous amount of food for the rest of the country, and food prices are already starting to rise at an alarming pace.

So what is going to happen if this drought extends for several more years or even longer?

Some experts such as paleoclimatologist Edward Cook have suggested that we could be in the midst of a "megadrought" that could last for decades or even centuries.

Many of those that were convinced that we could never see a return of the Dust Bowl days are now being forced to reevaluate their beliefs.  According to the National Weather Service, parts of Kansas, Colorado, Texas and Oklahoma are already drier than they were in the 1930s.  The following is an excerpt from a recent National Geographic article entitled "Parched: A New Dust Bowl Forms in the Heartland"…

Four years into a mean, hot drought that shows no sign of relenting, a new Dust Bowl is indeed engulfing the same region that was the geographic heart of the original. The undulating frontier where Kansas, Colorado, and the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma converge is as dry as toast. The National Weather Service, measuring rain over 42 months, reports that parts of all five states have had less rain than what fell during a similar period in the 1930s.

It is hard to put into words how incredibly serious this all is.

A few years ago, when I wrote articles with titles such as "20 Signs That Dust Bowl Conditions Will Soon Return To The Heartland Of America", a lot of people laughed.

Not that many people are laughing now.

The truth is that we are now in the midst of the worst drought crisis since the days of the Great Depression.

Fortunately, over the past week or so there has been some rain in some of the hardest hit areas.  Let us hope that this is a sign of better things to come.

Because if this drought does not come to an end, it is going to become much, much more expensive for Americans to feed their families.

And considering the fact that 49 million Americans are already facing food insecurity, that is a threat that should not be taken lightly.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1mLrtRb Tyler Durden