Free Speech and Climate Fraud Prosecution Follies

SpeechMuzzledBowie15DreamstimeOver the weekend, the Democratic Party platform included a climate change plank that “respectfully request(s) the Department of Justice investigate allegations of corporate fraud on the part of fossil fuel companies accused of misleading shareholders and the public on the scientific reality of climate change.” This is in line with a set of Democratic state attorneys-general (AGs United for Clean Power) who are pursuing climate change fraud investigation against oil giant ExxonMobil.

The allegedly motivating idea is that ExxonMobil possibly defrauded stockholders by not telling them about how projected climate change might damage its business prospects. One member of the global warming legal cabal is the particularly ambitious (and quite clueless) attorney-general for the U.S. Virgin Islands Claude Walker. Earlier this year, Walker issued a subpoena demanding that ExxonMobil turn over all records of any communications that the oil company may have had since 1977 with over 100 think tanks, advocacy organizations, and so forth. (The Reason Foundation that publishes this website was included in the subpoena dragnet.) Many of those organizations had expressed doubts about the significance of man-made global warming and the urgency of adopting policies to counter it. Walker clearly believes that such communications might provide evidence that oil company had orchestrated and paid for a conspiracy to mislead the public about the seriousness of climate change.

In addition to the subpoena to ExxonMobil, the USVI attorney-general Claude Walker issued one to the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) demanding it provide “a decade’s worth of communications, emails, statements, drafts, and other documents regarding CEI’s work on climate change and energy policy, including private donor information. It demands that CEI produce these materials from 20 years ago, from 1997-2007, by April 30, 2016.” CEI pushed back in federal court. The result is that Walker withdrew his subpoena, but said that he might file something similar in the future.

CEI is arguing this week in DC Superior Court that the USVI pay for attorney’s fees, court costs, and other sanctions. Claude wants CEI’s lawsuit against him and his office dismissed, arguing that “CEI has wasted enough of VIDOJ’s and the court’s limited time and resources.” CEI president Kent Lassman points out that CEI didn’t start these legal proceedings, adding “Apparently Attorney General Walker believes that Constitutional abuses are are not worth the court’s time. As if from a parallel universe where everything is reversed, Walker claims that CEI’s motions in response to overreaching and abusive action initiated by his office are a waste of his time and resources.  An attorney general is neither above the law nor out of reach of the DC Superior Court.”

In the meantime, several Republican attorneys-general have sent a dear colleague letter to the “AGs United for Clean Power” cabal urging them to desist from abusing their prosecutorial powers to stifle free speech on the issue of climate change. They point out that if minimizing climate change is fraud, exaggeration of climate change is also fraud. If oil companies must disclose how projections of worsening climate change might affect their businesses to avoid fraud charges, so too must “clean energy” companies disclose how milder trends to higher temperatures could affect their future profits in order to avoid defrauding shareholders. In addition, the Republican AGs point out that both fossil fuel and clean energy companies provide funding to non-profits who share their viewpoints. “Under the stated theory for fraud, consumers and investors could suffer harm from misstatements by all energy-market participants and the non-profits they support,” notes the dear colleague letter. “Yet only companies and non-profits allegedly espousing a particular viewpoint have been chosen for investigation.”

The dear colleague letter further notes that the AGs United for Clean Power’s “investigation inescapably implicates a public policy debate and raises substantial First Amendment concerns. As our colleagues must know, a vigorous debate exists in this country regarding the risks of climate change and the appropriate response to those risks. Both sides are well-funded and sophisticated public policy participants. Whatever our country’s response, it will affect people, communities, and businesses that all have a right to participate in this debate.”

The dear colleague letter makes the salient point that what is sauce for the goose is also sauce for the gander: “Once the government begins policing viewpoints, two solutions exist. The first solution is to police all viewpoints equally. Another group of Attorneys General could use the precedent established by the “AGs United for Clean Power” to investigate fraudulent statements associated with competing interests. The subpoenas currently directed at some market participants could be met with a barrage of subpoenas directed at other market participants.”

Over at the Washington Post, Yale University law professor Robert Post argues that First Amendment free speech guarantees do not protect fraudulent speech. According to Post’s analysis, the Democratic AGs are merely seeking to find out what did ExxonMobil know about climate change and when did it know it. “If ExxonMobil has committed fraud, its speech would not merit First Amendment protection,” writes Post. “If the First Amendment does not prevent lawsuits for fraud, it does not prevent subpoenas designed to provide evidence necessary to establish fraud.”

Free marketeers are surely against fraud, but was it fraud when biologist Paul Ehrlich asserted that hundreds of millions would die of famine in the 1970s; when Colin Campbell, Jean Laherrère, Kenneth Deffeyes, and Daniel Goodstein all predicted global peak oil production by 2010; when statistician Nassim Taleb claimed that biotech crops could cause an “irreversible termination of life at some scale, which could be planetwide”; when natural remedy huckster Joseph Mercola maintained that exposures to trace amounts of synthetic chemicals is a major cause of cancer? All these claims were sincerely believed and argued by their proponents and yet have now been proven largely wrong. And don’t say that the difference is that these folks didn’t have a profit motive for saying what they said; they all make money as authors, consultants, and snake oil salespersons.

While styled as a fraud investigation, the AG’s investigation amounts to a kind of prosecutorial strategic lawsuit against public participation, widely known as a SLAPP. While the AGs United for Clean Power make no secret that they hope that their investigation will yield them billions in the moral equivalent of climate reparations, the additional goal is to shut up advocacy groups that argue that climate change is not as big problem as the Democratic AGs think it that it is.

As I reported when Schneiderman first filed his subpoena, ExxonMobil had started stating in its annual report in 2006 that climate change policies could affect its business going forward. That also happens to be the year that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared in its Fourth Assessment of climate science that “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

With regard to the AGs investigation, ExxonMobil spokesman Alan Jeffers has recently stated, “The great irony here is that we’ve acknowledged the risks of climate change for more than a decade, have supported a carbon tax as the better policy option and spent more than $7 billion on research and technologies to reduce emissions.” He added, “It should make people question what this is really all about.”

Actually, it is all too apparent what it is all about.

In any case, it is not as though shareholders and consumers had not heard for years now that burning fossil fuels causes climate change and that regulators were aiming to cut the use of such fuels. Nevertheless, ExxonMobil’s stock price has never fallen below its trading January 1, 2006 level even after acknowledging climate change as a possible business factor in its annual reports.

For more background on this issue, please read my colleague Matt Welch’s superb article, “The Transparency Bullies.” For more background on my history of reporting on climate change, see my 2006 article, “Confessions of an Alleged ExxonMobil Whore.”

Disclosure: Over the years I have worked with several groups listed in the USVI subpoena on a wide variety of public policy issues relevant to resisting government encroachments into free markets, mostly not having anything to do with climate change. And I still own 50 shares of ExxonMobil stock that I bought with my own money.

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Juncker Lashes Out At British Lawmakers: “Why Are You Here?”

Having reportedly banned his EU-27 colleagues from talking to The Brits

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker asked lawmakers of Britain's anti-EU UKIP on Tuesday why they had attended a European Parliament session to discuss the consequences of the British vote to leave the bloc. As Reuters reports,

"We must respect British democracy and the way it has expressed its view," Juncker said in a speech to parliament, words that were greeted by rare applause from the UKIP members present.

 

"That's the last time you are applauding here… and to some extent I'm really surprised you are here. You are fighting for the exit. The British people voted in favor of the exit. Why are you here?" Juncker continued, breaking from his speech text.

Before the session began, Farage had gone over to speak to Juncker. Both men appeared relaxed and as Farage made to leave, Juncker pulled him close and gave him an air-kiss on the cheek…

 

Juncker said he would make no apology for being "sad" at the result of the British vote "I am not a robot," he said, "I am not a gray bureaucrat."

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“People Need To Know The Real Hillary Clinton And How Dangerous She Is”

Following the release of former secret service officer Gary Byrne's book, Clinton campaign officials have tried to play down his accusations with ad hominum attacks at Byrne as opposed to denying any of his allegations. However, as his book gains traction, RealClearPolitics reports that during his appearance of FOX News' Hannity show, Byrne talked Hillary Clinton's temperament, her "terrified staff," Bill Clinton carrying on affairs, drug use in the White House and more with host Sean Hannity. Byrne said Clinton was feared by her staff and was notorious for her yelling. Byrne told Hannity that she has "blown up" at him and other Secret Service agents…

"She gets angry at things that are policy issues that, you know, take time to fix, and she's got this attitude where she wants things fixed right now, immediately. She screams and yells at people,"

"There’s many examples that I site in my book where she blows up at people," Byrne said. "Like I’ve said, she has blown up at me before, and agents, and her staff. At one time, I saw her staff so afraid to tell her about a mistake that was made. They weren’t upset about the waste of the mistake, ordering the wrong invitations, they were terrified that someone was going to have to tell Hillary Clinton that there was a mistake made."

Byrne says Clinton's behavior during his tenure in the Secret Service proved to him that she does not have the temperament for the Oval office.

BYRNE: I feel so strongly that people need to know the real Hillary Clinton and how dangerous she is in her behavior. She is not a leader. She is not a leader.

SEAN: She does not have the temperament?

BYRNE: She doesn’t have the temperament. She didn’t have the temperament to handle the social office when she was First Lady, she does not have the temperament.

SEAN: She’s dishonest.

BYRNE: She’s dishonest, she habitually lies, anybody that can separate themselves from their politics and review her behavior over the past 15 years…

SEAN: You’re going to be accused of being political.

BYRNE: Absolutely I’m sure I will be, I have already and it’s not.

SEAN: And what’s your answer?

Byrne: It’s got nothing to do as politics.

Byrne talked wrote about then-President Bill Clinton's behavior, accusing him of carrying on multiple affairs and gave his perspective on the Monica Lewinsky affair and the scandal as it was happening. Byrne talked about several different affairs and how the Secret Service was expected to clean up after him.

HANNITY: How many women do you know, for sure, that he had affairs with in the Oval Office?

BYRNE: In the White House complex? I’d say easily three, maybe four, that I know of.

HANNITY: And you could see Monica Lewinsky from a mile away?

BYRNE: Sure. Sure.

HANNITY: You knew she wanted to be near him.

BYRNE: She was certainly manipulated some of the staff, other officers, myself to find out where he was—

HANNITY: She wasn’t manipulating if you saw through it.

BYRNE: Yeah, I agree. But I saw through it right away, but she was trying to place herself in his path, as he would move throughout the complex.

Byrne talks drug use in the White House:

HANNITY: Before I get into all the issues involving Bill and Hillary and what she knew and didn't know and covering up and lying and you being put in the middle of all this. People use drugs the at the White House?

BYRNE: There were some issues. One of the ones I comment in my book, and I'm very careful not to tell too much about it because I don't want — hopefully this person got on with their lives and lived a healthy life. But there was one particular staff member that they had come in in the morning, and they'd be so beat up and exhausted looking, worn out, exhausted to the point where they couldn't be seen saying good morning. And they'd go in their office and go the bathroom and come out of the bathroom completely elevated and happy and smiling.

HANNITY: It was obvious you thought coke was being used?

BYRNE: I did. And later on, I was told that this particular person actually, they did something similar to an intervention and got her help and got her to a clinic, and I never did see her again. But I understand she did all right.

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Hedge Funds “Showing Signs Of Capitulation” After 4-Sigma Move In High Beta Stocks

Earlier we pointed out that while the “real money” has been tiptoeing into “obvious” sectors like utilities, the cause of the overnight buying scramble appears to be yet another short squeeze. There is a reason for that. As RBC’s McEllifott follows up, there are “signs of capitulation yesterday in US equities (high beta basket -5.6%, cyclical beta -5.3%, biotech -4.2%, small cap -3.4%), and monetization / outright “tap outs” on further near-term downside bets through ETF and index options.  The view here is that although that is part of the “recovery” process, you still have the quarter-end dynamic into a long US holiday weekend which is keeping new risk-taking “capped.

HIGH BETA EQUITY BASKET’S TWO DAY NEGATIVE RETURN NEARLY 4 STANDARD DEVIATION EVENT (all outcomes dating back to ’08): De-risk.

 

So is anything aside from a squeeze keeping markets alfoat today? As we pointed out in our early morning wrap this morning, it is the old standby: “coordinated intervention by central banks.” To wit:

HAVE GOVERNMENTS BEEN ‘SPOOKED’ INTO READING THE FISCAL STIMULUS MEMO?: 

 

I continue hearing of “hope” that a “backdoor deal” could be worked-out to keep the UK in the EU “single market” somehow, with the logic going something like this: off the back of the clever-move by Cameron to “buy-time” in waiting to trigger Article 50 (until a new govt is formed), you thus allow discord and fear in the country grow in the meanwhile, as to the implications of actually “going-through” with divorce seed further fears on the referendum and implications on the UK economy, peoples’ livelihoods and well-being…and thus, the future PM never “triggers.”  I think this route remains unlikely, not just based on the language coming out of the Eurocrats (*’YOU’RE NOT COMING BACK’ JUNCKER TELLS FARAGE IN EU PARLIAMENT // *MERKEL: EU WON’T MAKE `CHERRY-PICKING’ CONCESSIONS TO U.K.), but also the view that it’s “not a good look” for the credibility of a parliamentary democracy to not act on the will of the people around a (terribly thought-out and poorly-executed) referendum.  Thus, I have to believe that the likely future PM BoJo will go through with Article 50, but on watered-down terms, as both sides step off the ledge, because neither the UK or EU win from playing a game of chicken. 

 

I actually think the much bigger “hope” for markets is that this vote could “spook” more coordination between the political ruling class, central banks and markets on the desire for FISCAL policy enhancements to eventually help with the heavy-lifting that is currently being done entirely from MonPol with ever-growing negative implications (for example dysfunctional govt bond markets, or NIRP destroying banking systems–Topix (Japan) banks index -38.6% YTD / EU banks -36.1% YTD).  The longer-term risks of Brexit triggering a global “crisis-of-confidence” which will spill-over to the real economy (e.g. a Capex recession driven by lack of visibility on direction) might not just elicit “still looser” monetary policy, but also, potential for fiscal policy enhancements that populists and markets are seemingly clamoring-for.  Overnight, we saw first signs of movement here from South Korea (where the KOSPI finished +0.5% overnight btw):

 

“South Korea plans a fiscal stimulus package of more than 20 trillion won ($17 billion) to cushion risks from corporate restructuring as external uncertainties grow with the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union. The package will include an extra budget of about 10 trillion won that mainly would be used to create jobs and support regional economies that would be hurt by corporate restructuring, according to government statements on policy outlook.”

 

This then ties nicely into the speculation swirling out of Japan in recent days that Toshihiro Nikai, chairman of the ruling party’s general council, proposed a 20 trillion yen ($196B) stimulus package to Abe.  The speculation in turn has kept the Nikkei the global leading outperformer WTD, +2.5%, and reiterates that markets are prepared to reward governments that are willing to shift in this direction.

 

That and oh yeah, helicopter money.  #GOLD.

And so, seven years later into this “recovery”, we are back to square one it is.

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This new breed of celebrities makes China’s rise even more obvious

In the year 605 AD, Emperor Yang of the Sui dynasty in China formally established what became known as the ‘imperial examination.’

This was a standardized test that public officials were required to take, covering everything from arithmetic to writing to military science.

The idea was to ensure that all public servants were educated and qualified.

This concept grew through the centuries, from the Sui to the Tang, Sung, Yuan, Ming, and Qing dynasties, with each successive leader further refining the exam.

It even lasted into China’s early days as a republic at the beginning of the 20th century, and still persists today in Taiwan.

China has had a very long tradition of placing substantial social value on education.

There was a brief interruption in the 20th century during Mao’s Cultural Revolution in which 100,000+ intellectuals were persecuted and shipped off to labor camps.

The economic effects of this decision to kill off intellect were disastrous, and China impoverished itself for decades as a result.

But today education is back at the forefront of Chinese culture, as it was for centuries.

The Chinese obsess over core subjects, particularly the all-important science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM).

The West is lagging here. Even the US Department of Education claims “few American students pursue expertise in STEM fields,” and “we have an inadequate pipeline of teachers skilled in those subjects.”

It’s also a question of values.

Case in point: two weeks ago, state-supported Wayne State University in Michigan decided to drop the mathematics requirement from its general education curriculum.

Instead, the university’s General Education Reform Committee proposed replacing the mathematics requirement with a mandatory course on diversity.

(It’s amazing that young people will actually take on tens of thousands of dollars worth of student debt for this…)

Across the Pacific, however, the Chinese haven’t reached the point yet where their society places much educational value on 18th century gender studies or the history of pop culture.

Instead, China celebrates real intellectual achievement.

Chinese movie stars take to their social media accounts each year during the annual “Gaokao”, or national college entrance exam, to cheer on the students.

The Gaokao is such a big deal in China that it receives substantial national media coverage, and top-scoring students often attract worshipful devotees and achieve minor celebrity status.

The same applies to the online math and science tutors who help students prepare for the Gaokao.

Many tutors attract millions of social media followers and are routinely recognized on the street like any ‘real’ celebrity.

[And in peak season they can make up to hundreds of thousands of dollars per month!]

Here’s an even starker example:

Stephen Hawking gained two million followers within 24 hours of signing up at the microblogging site Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter.

Now’s he’s up to 4.2 million, and climbing. That’s in just two months.

By comparison, he has 16,000 followers on Twitter versus Kim Kardashian’s 46+ million.

It’s not that Hawking isn’t famous in the US or Europe– they did, after all, make a movie about his life two years ago (which did slightly worse in the US market than 2014’s Sex Tape…)

It’s that he has a cult-like, almost movie star status in China, where students actually spend time learning about his theories.

To be fair, there’s obviously incalculable intellect in the West. And it’s not like the Chinese are immune to puerile fanaticism for their movie stars.

The key difference in China is that the celebration of intellect and human achievement as a core social value is on par with success and entertainment.

It’s no longer this way in the West. But it used to be.

When Sir Isaac Newton died in 1727, he was buried in England with the honor and prestige of a reigning monarch.

This shocked visiting diplomats from the Ottoman Empire, where intellectuals were treated with suspicion and censorship.

Unsurprisingly the Ottoman Empire was by then rapidly falling into history’s wastebasket of former superpowers, and the West was on the rise.

Decades ago in the US, Albert Einstein and Jonas Salk were huge celebrities.

Charles Lindbergh was once the most famous man in the world.

And children idolized astronauts in the 1960s, whose fame was so vast they were showered with endorsement deals from some of the biggest companies in the world.

Today, children in the West idolize reality TV starlets who are celebrated for having a voluptuous ass.

And in university, ‘checking your privilege’ is becoming more important in the Land of the Free than achieving fluency in the language of the universe– mathematics.

Just like a ballooning national debt, it’s not hard to get a sense of where this trend leads…

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When It Comes To The US Economy, The Age Divide Has Never Been Wider

Despite a rise in headline consumer confidence, there are increasingly gaping divergences between various cohorts that suggest all is not well in America. Regionally, Pacific ‘confidence’ has surged while New England has plunged. Plans to buy a car or a major appliance or a home all dropped, with the latter at its lowest in 10 months. But most worrisome is the record divide between ‘young’ and ‘old’ Americans confidence in the US economy

The “Under-35’s are the most confident since the year 2000…

 

But the Over-55s are the least confident in a year driving the economic age divide to its greatest in at least 36 years.

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The Rise Of An Investing Legend: Mikael Syding

By Chris at http://ift.tt/12YmHT5

Humble, mindful, curious, and sporting a brain the size of a planet, Mikael Syding is a man you’re going to enjoy listening to.

I recorded a recent conversation that I had with Mikael for you but first a bit of background.

Mikael managed the long/short equity fund at Futuris/Brummer from 2000 to 2015 as one of three senior partners, serving as portfolio manager and managing director.

The fund received numerous awards, including several for being best directional hedge fund over ten years, and not least, European long short equity fund of the year in 2008 – a year, if you recall, where investors globally took a beating.

The fund then went on to win the European Hedge Fund of the Decade 2000 to 2009.

Mikael and I cover a lot in this conversation, including:

  • Why the most successful sell side brokers are also dishonest.
  • Why being uncomfortable is what every investor should strive for, plus some simple exercises you can use to train your own mindset to do this in everyday life.
  • Why the best performing European hedge fund for a decade couldn’t raise a single penny from fund managers.
  • What DeepMind’s AlphaGo means for portfolio management.

This podcast is longer than normal. But then Mikael is far from normal, and speaking with him never involves a short conversation as there is just too much to talk about.

Mikael Syding

We didn’t manage to cover the global macro environment which we had intended to do. But I will record another conversation with him on that very topic so make sure you’re subscribed to ensure you get it.

Since retiring from the hedge fund business Mikael writes an excellent blog which you can find here.

If you have any dying questions relating to global macro economics which you’d like me to ask him on when we next speak, fire them to me.

What was your favourite thing you learnt from this podcast?

Let me know in the comments section on the site.

– Chris

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Richmond Fed Dead-Cat-Bounce Crashes To 3-Year Lows

With the biggest miss in two years, Richmond Fed collapsed to -7 (lowest since Jan 2013) from March’s 22 print (six year highs). The farcical flip-flop leaves the average workweek plunging into contraction, number of employees dropping, New Order volume crashing, and worse still, future expectations of hisring and work week is plunging.

Best in 6 years to worst in over 3 years…

 

As New orders crash

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“Helpless In The Face Of British Chaos” – What French And German Newspapers Are Saying Today

With headlines and soundbites now emerging from today’s Brussels summit where David Cameron is the star attraction, here is how both the British referendum as well as the EU summit are being viewed elsewhere in Europe.

First, here is a snapshot from the German newspapers.

  • The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung says the referendum has become a “bad joke” and accuses the Brexit camp of having no strategy.
  • Left-wing Tageszeitung says Chancellor Merkel is “biding time as usual” but her SPD coalition partners and other EU states are “piling on the pressure”. 
  • Finally, Die Welt says billionaire investor George Soros is betting 100m euros against Germany’s top Deutsche Bank which is vulnerable in the “Brexit storm”.

And now, here are the French:

It would appear that there is much disunity even among the press of a united Europe.

Source: BBC

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