Republican Leaders Say GOP Has The Votes To Pass Tax Plan

Update: Mitch McConnell has confirmed that the Republicans have the votes to pass the Senate's tax-reform plan. McConnell's comments put a slight bid back in stocks, which have fallen sharply following Mike Flynn's guilty plea.

 

* * *

John Cornyn, the No. 2 man in the Republican Senate leadership, said Friday that they have secured enough votes to pass the Senate version of the Republican tax reform bill, according to the Washington Post. Earlier in the morning, James Lankford of Oklahoma and Jerry Moran of Kansas, both said they’d support the bill, but Maine’s Susan Collins had said she’s still unconvinced. Hours later, Lindsey Graham echoed his claims.

Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin said he planned to back the bill after announcing last week that he would vote against it because it didn’t provide enough tax relief to taxpayers who use the pass-through rate. Steve Daines of Montana, who objected to the bill on similar grounds, also said he’d vote for the bill.

Cornyn said the leadership had “at least 50” votes, but are working to secure one more ‘yea’ vote to provide a buffer against any surprises, like when John McCain voted to kill the senate’s repeal and replace plan over the summer.

Speaking with reporters outside of a meeting with the Republican caucus,Cornyn said “We have at least 50, and we’re still working."

The comments from Cornyn, the second-ranking Republican in the Senate, came just hours after Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said he planned to back the bill. He was one of the final holdouts, though the GOP needed a little more help to ensure they had the 50 votes they needed. Cornyn did not say who else had committed to support the package.

 

Johnson’s support followed a late night of negotiations, following a standoff on the Senate floor Thursday when Johnson and two other members aired concerns about the bill.

 

He has long complained that the tax cut package does not provide enough benefits for a certain type of business, though he has requested numerous changes in recent days and it could not be immediately learned what precisely made him decide to back the bill.

 

Support from the Wisconsin Republican is a boost for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), but GOP leaders still need to win backing from at least one more holdout before they can be assured they have enough votes to pass the bill.

Unsurprisingly, Tennessee’s Bob Corker and Arizona’s Jeff Flake were two of the last confirmed holdouts. Both men were pushing measures that would reduce the bill’s impact on the deficit by paring back some of the proposed cuts. As the Post points out, the two men represent a unique challenge for the Republican leadership because they aren’t running for re-election.

Collins has suggested that she plans to support the tax package, but she is insisting on several changes of her own, including a plan to allow Americans to deduct up to $10,000 in property taxes and an expansion of the child tax credit. Collins already helped vote against the Republican repeal and replace plan and has a history of voting against tax cuts.

GOP leaders were meeting in McConnell’s office Friday morning to try to resuscitate the bill after a proposed trigger that would raise taxes if revenue targets were missed was rejected by the senate parliamentarian.

“I think Senator [Steve Daines (R-Mont.)] and Senator Johnson are supporting the bill, and we’re working hard to get the last two members we think we need to get onboard – Senator Flake and Senator Corker,” said Sen. John Cornyn, the second-highest ranking Republican in the Senate.

 

Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) was also attending the meeting in McConnell’s office. As he entered, he told reporters that lawmakers were still trying to figure out how to resolve the concerns raised by Corker and Flake. Corker had wanted to put a provision in the bill that would automatically raise taxes after five years if the growth projections that GOP leaders had promised did not come to fruition.

 

The tax increases would kick in through a “trigger” mechanism that was somehow tied to economic growth.

 

But the Senate’s parliamentarian told Corker on Thursday evening that there were issues with how the trigger would be designed. GOP leaders then had to decide whether to try to craft a new trigger or simply add new taxes back into the bill to lessen the impact on the debt.

 

On Friday morning, Sen. Orrin G. Hatch (R-Utah) said, “I think we’re doing real well.” When asked whether he believed Republicans had the votes to resolve the trigger issue, Hatch said, “I think so.

Corker and Flake are pushing for as much as $350 billion in tax cuts to be reversed if Republicans want the final bill to pass. There’s still no guarantee that the bill makes it to Trump’s desk – it will need to go through the reconciliation process, then be passed against by both the House and Senate.

Republican leaders are hoping to take the vote tonight.
 

via http://ift.tt/2izyNrt Tyler Durden

Mike Flynn Issues Offical Statement, Trump’s Lawyer Responds

Moments after the stunning news that Mike Flynn “flipped” on Trump as part of his guilty plea, and was preparedd to testify against Trump, the former National Security Advisor released the following statement:

Statement by Lt. General Michael T/ Flynn (Ret.)

 

After over 33 years of military service to our country, including nearly five years in combat away from my family, and then my decision to continue to serve the United States, it has been extraordinarily painful to endure these many months of false accusations of “treason’ and other outrageous acts. Such false accusations are contrary to everything I have ever done and stood for. But I recognize that the actions I acknowledged in court today were wrong, and, through my faith in God, I am working to set things right. My guilty plea and agreement to cooperate with the Special Counsel’s Office reflect a decision I made in the best interests of my family and of our country. I accept full responsibility for my actions.

At the same time, Trump attorney Ty Cobb countered saying that nothing about Michael Flynn’s guilty plea “implicates anyone other than Mr. Flynn.” The full text below:

Statement from Ty Cobb:

 

“Today, Michael Flynn, a former National Security Advisor at the White House for 25 days during the Trump Administration, and a former Obama administration official, entered a guilty plea to a single count of making a false statement to the FBI.

 

“The false statements involved mirror the false statements to White House officials which resulted in his resignation in February of this year. Nothing about the guilty plea or the charge implicates anyone other than Mr. Flynn. The conclusion of this phase of the Special Counsel’s work demonstrates again that the Special Counsel is moving with all deliberate speed and clears the way for a prompt and reasonable conclusion.”

Of course, the one response everyone is wating for is that of Trump.

via http://ift.tt/2AAffu5 Tyler Durden

Bubble Watch: US Margin Debt Now Equal the Economy of Taiwan

When Central Banks attempted to corner the sovereign bond market via ZIRP and QE, they forced ALL risk in the financial system to adjust lower.

Remember, in a fiat-based monetary system such as the one used by the world today, sovereign bonds NOT gold are the ultimate backstop for the financial system.

And for the US, which controls the reserve currency of the world, sovereign bonds, also called Treasuries, represent the “risk-free” rate of return for the entire world.

So when the Fed moved to corner this market, forcing the yields on these bonds to drop to all-time lows, it was effectively forcing ALL risk in the US financial system to adjust to an abnormal risk-profile.

Put simply, the Fed created a bubble in bonds, which in turn fueled a bubble in everything.

Yes, everything… corporate bonds, municipal bonds, stocks, even consumer credit. Indeed, nine years into this insanity things have reach such egregious levels of excess that even tertiary debt instruments such as margin debt have reached levels greater than ever before.

What is margin debt?

Margin debt is money that stock investors borrow in order to buy stocks. It is direct leverage. And it just hit a new record… or $561 billion.

To put this number into perspective, it is:

  • Equal to the entire economy of Asian powerhouse Taiwan.
  • Nearly greater than the amount of margin debt borrowed at the peak of the last bubble in 2007 50%.
  • DOUBLE the amount of margin debt borrowed at the peak of the Tech Bubble.

Now, no one in their right mind would argue that late 2000 or late 2007 were periods of fiscal restraint.

Well, today investors are borrowing hundreds of billions or dollars MORE to invest in the stock market than they were at those times.

As I explained in my bestseller, The Everything Bubble: the Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the bubble in bonds is what finances this entire mess.

By creating a bubble in bonds, the US Federal Reserve has created a bubble in EVERYTHING because borrowing costs are at absurdly low levels.

This is why I coined the term The Everything Bubble in 2014. It’s also why I wrote a book on this issue as well as what’s coming down the pike: because when this bubble bursts (as all bubbles do) the policies Central Banks employ will make those from 2008-2015 look like a cakewalk.

We are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s to come when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

http://ift.tt/2zOZC2f

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

via http://ift.tt/2AObX6V Phoenix Capital Research

Flynn Prepared To Testify Against Trump; Gold Spikes, Stocks Crash

Gold is spiking as stocks and the dollar sink after headline reports from ABC that Michael Flynn promised "full cooperation to the Mueller team" and is prepared to testify that as a candidate, Donald Trump "directed him to make contact with the Russians."

There are more headlines:

  • FLYNN HAD CONTACT WITH `SENIOR' TRANSITION AIDE RE: AMBASSADOR
  • FLYNN ADMITS MAR-A-LAGO CALL TO DISCUSS TALKS WITH AMBASSADOR

Reuters adds some color on what is occurring in the court:

  • FEDERAL PROSECUTORS SAY FLYNN SPOKE WITH SENIOR MEMBERS OF TRUMP'S TRANSITION TEAM ABOUT HIS CONVERSATIONS WITH RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR REGARDING U.S. SANCTIONS
  • PROSECUTORS SAY FLYNN SPOKE WITH A 'SENIOR OFFICIAL' OF TRUMP'S TRANSITION TEAM WHO WAS AT MAR-A-LAGO RESORT IN DEC 2016 TO DISCUSS WHAT TO COMMUNICATE TO RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR
  • PROSECUTORS SAY FLYNN WAS DIRECTED BY 'A VERY SENIOR MEMBER' OF TRUMP TRANSITION TEAM TO POLL COUNTRIES AHEAD OF UN VOTE IN DEC 2016
  • PROSECUTORS SAY FLYNN WAS TOLD BY THE SENIOR MEMBER OF TRUMP TRANSITION TEAM TO REACH OUT TO OTHER COUNTRIES TO INFLUENCE THE UN VOTE TO DELAY OR DEFEAT THE RESOLUTION  

Trump's Impeachment odds spiked…

The Dollar plunged…

 

Gold spiked and stocks slumped…

 

All major equity indices are tumbling…

 

It did not take long for Dianne Feinstein to issue a damning statement:

  • *FEINSTEIN SAYS FLYNN GUILTY PLEA ABOUT MORE THAN LYING TO FBI
  • *FEINSTEIN: PLEA SHOWS TRUMP ASSOCIATE NEGOTIATING WITH RUSSIANS

 

 

via http://ift.tt/2iwq8ps Tyler Durden

White House Lashes Out At San Francisco, Democrats After “Disgraceful” Kate Steinle Case Verdict

Following yersterday's stunning 'not guilty' verdict in the case against the illegal immigrant felon who admitted to shooting and killing Kate Steinle, social media erupted in outrage, AG Sessions issued a statement and President Trump tweeted his disapproval, followed up with this…

However, this morning, The White House has stepped up the rhetoric with a biting statement:

Statement from the Press Secretary on the Kate Steinle Case

 

Yesterday's verdict in San Francisco underscores the danger to public safety when our Nation fails to enforce its laws. Kate Steinle was killed by an illegal immigrant and convicted felon who had been deported from the United States five times. He, and countless other criminal illegal immigrants like him, should never be allowed to threaten our citizens.

 

It's more important now than ever for Congress to secure our borders and provide the resources, including more ICE officers, needed to deport criminal illegal aliens and to finally stop sanctuary city policies that cause needless loss of innocent life.

 

Politicians who fail to address these needs share responsibility for preventable crimes committed against innocent Americans.

 

Had San Francisco enforced our Nation's immigration laws, the Steinle family would be celebrating this holiday with all of their loved ones.

Fascinatingly, we have yet to hear anyone defending this decision – apart from the defense attorney.

via http://ift.tt/2njp0XQ Tyler Durden

Rex Tillerson: Reports Of My Ouster Are “Laughable”

Yesterday, the New York Times appeared to confirm what many in Washington had long suspected: The deteriorating relationship between Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and President Donald Trump had reached the point of no return, and the former ExxonMobil CEO would be leaving the administration "within weeks", to be replaced by CIA Director Mike Pompeo.

Rumors that Pompeo was in line to replace Tillerson have been circulating since at least September.  The former Indiana Congressman has become one of Trump's closest foreign policy advisers since taking over the CIA. He's in charge of delivering Trump's daily intelligence briefings.

But while the White House issued a cryptic statement saying only that it wasn't planning any personnel changes "at this time," Tillerson immediately started pushing back against the report.

Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, said he spoke with Tillerson and the secretary "doesn't plan to be ousted."

On Friday, Tillerson doubled down on those denials, telling a group of reporters that the NYT's story was "laughable." He made the comment during a meeting with Libya's prime minister at the State Department, accoding to the Hill.

Tillerson has reportedly disagreed with Trump on several key foreign policy issues, including how to de-escalate the standoff with North Korea and how to determine the future of the Iran deal. Two months ago, the relationship between the two men appeared to be irreparably compromised following reports Tillerson called the president "a f—ing moron" during a security breifing at the Pentagon, where Trump reportedly told the generals that he wanted to greatly expand the size of the US nuclear arsenal.

If Tillerson does leave, he'd be the first high-profile departure from the administration since Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price resigned over his use of chartered jets at taxpayer expense. Tillerson would also be one of the most important players to leave the administration so far.

Of course, Tillerson isn't the only Trump administration official who's rumored to be on his way out: NEC Chairman Gary Cohn is reportedly planning on leaving the administration after the end of the year.

To be sure, the NYT said Trump had yet to finalize plans for Tillerson's departure. Also, one would think the White House might want to keep Tillerson happy considering he could easily spill his guts to the press after leaving the administration.

via http://ift.tt/2nlpUmQ Tyler Durden

North Korea Says It Is “Ready For Nuclear War” With The US

A Russian lawmaker on Friday said that North Korea doesn’t want nuclear war with the US – but that the country is “morally ready” for war after US threats and if it's left with no other option, RIA reported. At the same time, Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, chimed in, and according to interfax, said there are people in Washington "who wish to provoke Pyongyang to reckless actions" and warned the US that if it "wants to destroy North Korea" then it is playing with fire and making a great mistake.

These remarks followed reports early Friday that North Korea would agree to peace talks with the US if the international community is ready to recognize it as a nuclear power. The news was relayed by a Russian delegation to Pyongyang. The delegation added that the North believes it was forced to be aggressive and that the country won’t give up its nukes under any circumstances.

“[Pyongyang] are ready to talk, however the [North] Korean side has its own condition – it should be recognized as a nuclear power,” Vitaly Pashin, a member of the Russian delegation, told news agencies upon their return. The North is now ready to negotiate with Washington “under parity terms” with the participation of Russia as a third party, he added.

Tensions spiked earlier this week when the North carried out its first missile launch in more than two months, ending the longest period of calm so far this year, when it test fired the country's first true ICBM. Observers noted that the Hwasong-15 missile reached an unprecedented height of 4,500 kilometers, and flew for more than 50 minutes. Experts have concluded that the North now likely has the capability to strike anywhere in the continental US.

On Thursday, Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, warned Wednesday that the North Korean regime "will be utterly destroyed" in a war with the US.

"We have never sought war with North Korea, and still today we do not seek it," ambassador Haley said at a meeting of the UN Security Council. "If war does come, it will be because of continued acts of aggression like we witnessed yesterday."

"And if war comes, make no mistake, the North Korean regime will be utterly destroyed," Haley said, something which Kim clearly disagrees with.

Russia and China have repeatedly pushed the US and the North to agree to talks. The two powers have proposed a solution whereby the US and South Korea would agree to halt their military drills if the North halts its nuclear program.

via http://ift.tt/2BqrE05 Tyler Durden

Should the Government Try to Bribe You Into Having More Babies?

BabiesPhotographerlondonDreamstimes

“Our fertility decline is on par with serious, durable fertility declines in other big, developed countries, and may be extremely difficult to reverse,” warns Lyman Stone, an economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture. By his calculations, America’s total fertility rate has dropped from 2.1 kids per woman in 2007 to 1.77 now. Stone thinks this is a problem. Is it?

The total fertility rate is defined as the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime, all things being equal. The population replacement rate is conventionally defined as 2.1 children per woman: one to replace each parent, plus a few more to make up for kids who die or fail to reproduce.

Lyman acknowledges that fertility in the U.S. has fallen even more steeply in the past. For example, the total fertility rate dropped in just six years from 2.48 to 1.74 kids per woman between 1970 and 1976. It bounced back to basically the replacement rate in the 1990s and 2000s.

Lyman suggests that this time the fall will continue, dropping soon to the lowest domestic rates ever. Most other developed countries, he notes, have stayed below the replacement rate for decades. Low fertility, he fears, threatens the future of American economy and culture. He glumly notes that even extremely generous pro-natalist policies in European Union countries, Russia, and other developed nations have failed to boost fertility above replacement in those countries.

For example, France provides 26 weeks of paid maternity leave for a third child, highly subsidized day care, and monthly allowances for families with children amounting to as much as $300 per month. Such policies correlated with a fertility boost from 1.7 children per woman in the 1990s to just over 2.0 by 2015. Yet the country’s total fertility then fell to 1.93 in 2016.

Stone’s article provoked New York Times columnist Ross Douthat into a Twitter paroxysm. Trumpian populists, he despaired, were failing to engage in a “‘natalists versus globalists’ policy debate.” Specifically, the pro-natalist Douthat was peeved that populist-in-chief Trump had dismissed a tax-bill amendment from Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah). The bill already includes language doubling the child tax credit from $1,000 to $2,000 per kid; Rubio and Lee want to make the credit refundable against payroll tax liability. The idea is to enable lower-income folks who pay little or no income tax to benefit from the credit by offsetting their payroll tax payments. (Without something like the Rubio/Lee amendment, the Center for Budget Priorities calculates that about 10 million children with low-income parents would receive a token benefit of $75 or less from the Senate’s increase in the child tax credit.) Rubio and Lee want to pay for their proposal by lowering the corporate income tax rate to just 22 percent, not the 20 percent preferred by the president.

The current $1,000-per-child credit phases out at incomes higher than $150,000 for married filers with two children. In the Senate version, it would phase out in the case of married couples with two children whose incomes exceed $580,000. Since high-income people pay more income tax, they would be able to take full advantage to the new child tax credit to reduce their tax bills. This could be interpreted as trying to bribe high-income folks—who have lower fertility rates—into having more kids.

In any event, it costs about $233,610 to rear a child, so $2,000 a year isn’t likely to be all that persuasive. But from Douthat’s point of view, every little bit helps.

I, on the other hand, can’t see why the government should be trying to manage how many kids people have in the first place. Fertility is falling because people are making trade-offs between having more children and more education, more career advancement, more disposable income, and more leisure. In addition, many people are choosing to have fewer children so that they can invest more in helping the children they do have to lead successful lives. Falling fertility is a sign that increased wealth and technological progress have given increasing numbers of people greater freedom to decide if, when, how, and with whom they want to reproduce. And that’s a good thing.

For more background, see my article “Why Are People Having Fewer Kids?

Disclosure: My wife and I try not to flaunt our voluntarily child-free lifestyle too much.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2zVqWMo
via IFTTT

Meanwhile… The Yield Curve Is Crashing-er

Remember Monday when stocks jumped and the yield curve steepened and every talking head and their pet rabbit said the bond market is about to explode… well the yield curve is now imploding again with 5s30s crashing almost 10bps to 64bps – the lowest since Oct 2007.

False start…

 

The trend is jnot The Fed's friend…

 

This morning Fed's Bullard warned that more rate-hikes could invert the yield curve (which has signal 7 of the last 7 recessions).

“There is a material risk of yield curve inversion over the forecast horizon if the FOMC continues on its present course of increases in the policy rate," Bullard, who doesn’t vote on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee until 2019, said on Friday in Arkansas.

 

“Yield curve inversion is a naturally bearish signal for the economy. This deserves market and policy maker attention.’’

Hoever, last night Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester on Thursday played down concerns about the yield curve, instead advocating continued gradual increases in the federal funds rate.

“Long rates are going to go up given where we are in the economy and given where we see the economy going,” she said in an interview.

 

“But this is another reason why we need to keep raising up the short rate. These financial conditions are accommodative.”

So Bullard rightly worried, Mester – it's different this time.

via http://ift.tt/2BBQbQH Tyler Durden

US Manufacturing’s Hurricane-Rebound Is Over: New Orders Sink, Costs Soar

The brief rebound in US manufacturing after the hurricanes appears to have ended as Markit's PMI dropped from 54.6 to 53.9 as new orders slowed amid soaring inflation. For once ISM Manufacturing also agreed with PMI – dropping to its lowest since July – with employment and export orders sinking.

While new orders slowed, the most notable item in the PMI data was that inflation is surging…

Average prices charged by manufacturers rose further in November, with the pace of inflation accelerating to the fastest in almost four years.

 

Anecdotal evidence suggested the increase was due to greater cost burdens which were largely passed on to clients.

 

Input price inflation also quickened since October and was steep overall. Survey respondents commonly stated that components costs rose due to logistical delays.

ISM data shows a drop in employment and export orders…

ISM respondents seem enthused still:

  • "Continuing to see more orders for the next six to 12 months." (Chemical Products)
  • "Strong sales through third and now fourth quarters. Backlog increasing, and capacity at suppliers tightening." (Machinery)
  • "Business has leveled out but remains strong heading into the end of the year." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "We are just coming off a record sales year. We expect to continue in 2018 robust activity." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • "We are seeing steady, consistent demand for end of year. We usually see a slowdown, which we haven’t seen yet." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Overall industry demand remains strong. Continue to have a healthy backlog of orders. Local economy is also strong, with a fairly tight labor market." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Business is strong. Employment is tight. Supplier deliveries have lengthened. A few suppliers are still blaming Hurricane Harvey for the lead times." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Strong season demand for products and continued requirements for uptime." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
  • "Currently, we have not experienced the typical seasonal slowdown toward the end of Q4. Could be that there is a lot of optimism in the American economy." (Plastics & Rubber Products)

Within the ISM data, we note that the percentage of respondents saying New Orders are 'better' dropped to 31, the lowest since November 2016.

Commenting on the final PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“US manufacturers reported further solid growth in November. The rate of expansion settled slightly after October’s rebound from the hurricanes, but still leaves the sector on course for its best quarter since the opening months of 2015.

 

“What’s especially encouraging is that growth is being led by producers of business equipment and machinery, indicating investment spending is on the rise.

 

“Jobs growth in the sector has also picked up in recent months compared with the subdued hiring earlier in the year, suggesting that an expansionary mood is beginning to prevail in the goods producing sector. Business optimism is now at its highest since the start of 2016, underscoring how firms believe the upturn has further to run as we move into 2018.

 

“Prices continued to rise at an increased rate, linked to higher costs, though in many cases the price hikes were linked to ongoing supply chain disruptions since the hurricanes, suggesting inflationary pressures should start to cool soon, at least in terms of manufacturing costs.”

Transitory?

via http://ift.tt/2BtinEu Tyler Durden