Despite Tariff Tantrum, Import/Export Prices Tumble For 5th Month In A Row

So much for the trade war-driven inflation that anti-Trump-ers have screamed about, both import and export prices in September extended their annual declines to a fifth straight month.

• Import prices rose 0.2% MoM (-1.6% YoY)

• Export prices dropped 0.2% MoM (-1.6% YoY

The 5th straight month of annual deflation…

Source: Bloomberg

The most notable aspects of the import/export shifts are in consumer goods and autos (where fearmongering screamed about tariffs’ impacts):

• Consumer goods prices unchanged m/m after rising 0.1% in Aug.

• Auto prices unchanged m/m after no change in Aug.

• Consumer goods export prices ex-autos 0.3% decline largest since Jan. 2017

As China exports the most deflation since July 2007…

 

So, for now, Trump remains right, the US consumer is not paying higher prices due to his tariffs. But, given the lagged impact of China’s credit impulse, is that about to change?

Source: Bloomberg