Month: February 2024

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Comedian Dave Chappelle won Best Comedy Album for a second year running at the Grammy Awards Sunday, prompting the transgender crowd to go into a meltdown on social media.

The award is Chappelle’s fifth overall, yet drew anger from fans of trans because his special “What’s in a Name,” taken from a portion of a speech he gave at Duke Ellington School of the Arts  contained references to so called ‘transphobic’ jokes he has made in the past.

“The more you say I can’t say something, the more urgent it is for me to say it,” Chappelle noted in the speech, adding “It has nothing to do with what you are saying I can’t say. It has everything to do with my freedom of artistic expression.”

Dave Chappelle winning a Grammy for his comedy album is further evidence Hollywood doesn’t care much about transphobia.

— Jenn M. Jackson, PhD (they/them) (@JennMJacksonPhD) February 5, 2024

It’s fucking unreal to me that transphobic dinosaur Dave Chappelle continues to win Grammys for his unfunny flop specials pic.twitter.com/ItS6lSqxka

— Isaac (@_eye_zick) February 4, 2024

When they gave Dave Chappelle his 4th (!? maybe third) Grammy for his transphobic special it was like… why is ANYONE watching these things? They’re literally trolling

— janice (@liber8cre8ivity) February 5, 2024

I hope Dave Chappelle can take this Grammy win and find peace with himself and whichever trans woman broke his heart so many years ago.

— AVN-nominated Billy Procida (@TheBillyProcida) February 5, 2024

nah because DAVE CHAPPELLE IS DEEPLY TRANSPHOBIC and CONTINUES TO RECEIVE THE PLATFORM TO DO SO….ya’ll think the Grammy’s worried about Bigfoot? give a a break https://t.co/fruJ9kyfAF

— Shenanigans (@DaKozster) February 5, 2024

Why the fuck did notable transphobe and piece of shit Dave Chappelle win the Grammy for Best Comedy Performance?

— I Am The Pretty Thing That Shits In Your House (@BradAMcHargue) February 5, 2024

Gervais won the Golden Globe. Chappelle wins the Grammy.

Anti-Trans “humour” is riding a wave this year. https://t.co/qJVsUeFiPs

— James Crampton 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 (@JimCramptonWPG) February 4, 2024

I’m just here to see all the professionally outraged lose their minds that Dave Chappelle won a Grammy! 😂 Keep up the cancellations, you’re doing great!! #GRAMMYsTNT #grammy #DaveChappelle pic.twitter.com/JNv112h44Z

— Ray Bustos (@BigRay541) February 5, 2024

Chappelle did not hold back in his latest special titled ‘The Dreamer’ during which he states “I love punching down.”

After stating that he won’t tell any more LGBTQ jokes, Chappelle explained he would turn his attention to “handicapped” people instead because “they’re not as organised as the gays.”

The special has been slated critics, who claim that he has ‘learned nothing’ from backlash he received for the last special ‘The Closer’.

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
pic.twitter.com/JxBC5QkHyE

— Nipsey No Hussle (@mynameisFACE) January 1, 2024

*  *  *

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has finally given public confirmation that he is currently considering firing this top military general in charge of the armed forces, after a week of denials by Kiev officials amid an avalanche of reporting and leaks to the press.

It has also been widely reported that Gen. Valerii Zaluzhny has rejected Zelensky’s attempts to dismiss him, leading to speculation that this could be the start of a mutiny, given also Zalushny is very popular and has a loyal following among military ranks.

The Hill has cited a Sunday Italian news interview wherein Zelensky was asked whether he’s going to fire his military commander. Zelensky then said the Ukrainian populace want “a reset” and “a new beginning is necessary” given things haven’t gone well on the battlefield over the past year.

“I have something serious in mind, which does not concern a single person but the direction of the country’s leadership,” Zelensky said, adding that the plan is a “replacement of a series of state leaders, not just in a single sector like the military.”

The Ukrainian president is thus hinting at a major shake-up which goes even beyond military leaders. The heart of the dispute is about the military leadership’s much more negative, and realist assessment of the state of the battlefield vs. Zelensky’s positive, rosier portrayals to his backers abroad: 

The dispute first started when Zaluzhnyi, who has led Ukraine’s military since 2021, told The Economist in November the war had reached a stalemate and there would be no “beautiful breakthrough.”

After the interview, Zelensky disagreed that was the case.

Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh believes, as we do, that the open disagreement is much more than a “tabloid war” – but that it’s really all about opening serious peace negotiations with Moscow.

Zaluzhny’s ‘realist’ camp is seen as more in favor, while Zelensky has ruled out ceasefire talks entirely while demanding Russia even given up claims over Crimea (which realistically is simply never going to happen). 

Zelensky confirms to Italian TV what myself and other journalists reported last week: the Ukrainian president is planning to replace his top general, Valery Zaluzhny, among others.

My @FT report: https://t.co/iJ9n8pYRMY

Zelensky interview with Rai News: https://t.co/8m0eqTrzoA https://t.co/ZWH4F0V8dx

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 5, 2024

Below are some key excerpts from Hersh’s full report entitled THE PRESIDENT VS. THE GENERAL [emphasis ZH]…

* * * 

Hersh’s sources say the Pentagon has quietly welcomed the prospect of Ukraine peace talks:

Some at the Pentagon and in the intelligence community welcomed Zaluzhny’s assessment as the beginning of an inevitable peace process. I reported in December that Zaluzhny had been in secret discussions with his Russian counterpart, General Valery Gerasimov, on the many complicated issues that needed to be resolved if the war came to an end. Gerasimov was keeping his boss in Moscow, Vladimir Putin, informed; Zaluzhny was not doing the same in Kyiv. 

Secret talks behind Zelensky’s back?

Zelensky’s desire to fire his commanding general is the result, some Americans believe, of his knowledge that Zaluzhny had continued to participate—whether directly or through aides is not known—in secret talks since last fall with American and other Western officials on how best to achieve a ceasefire and negotiate an end to the war with Russia. It was those talks that led Zaluzhny to declare to the Economist that the war was stalemated.

Corruption in the foreground:

All of this comes at a time when there has been renewed interest among some in the American military and intelligence community in finding a way to both support significant reform in the Ukrainian government and support Zaluzhny’s efforts for far-reaching talks with Russia about a settlement in the war. A few hints of the details were provided last week to the Washington Post in a story headlined “In Ukraine, U.S. dials back plans to take turf.” 

According to the knowledgeable American official, the first step of the new concept is a long-standing issue: financial reform. Zelensky must be told: “You’ve got to get rid of corruption before we do anything more.” The second step is something that does not exist today in Ukraine: a serious audit of all government funding. The official said Zelensky should consider the billions he needs “as our money, as an investment with all of the rules” for its disbursement “to be laid out. and followed.” 

…Last year CIA Director William Burns secretly flew to Kyiv to warn Zelensky face-to-face that Washington was aware of his personal corruption and his unwillingness to dismiss any of the dozens of officials—who were named by Burns—known to be deeply involved in diverting defense funds to personal accounts. Burns also told the president, as I reported, that there was anger among some of his subordinates because he was taking too large a cut of the spoils.

End of the Zelensky regime? 

The actual concept is far more complicated and far more ambitious, I was told by the official, and envisions sustained support for Zaluzhny and reforms that would lead to the end of the Zelensky regime. The talk this week of firing Zaluzhny left some of the planners dismayed. The official told me that forging a new strategy requires “consultation and education of key patriotic and realistic Ukrainians.” The danger with such reform is that there will be leaks to the press and “an effort by the entrenched corrupt beneficiaries of the US ‘free lunch’ policy to derail the process.”

Hersh’s sources further commented on the now very out in the open conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhny, saying “This is an old-fashioned power struggle. We all know that stopping this madness won’t be easy and may fail, but lots of lives are at stake and integrity demands given the best efforts. We couldn’t have gotten airborne without a willing and courageous pilot” in reference to Gen. Zaluzhny.

“Of course, Zelensky knew that Zaluzny was dealing with the West,” the official said. “But Zelensky will be a dead man walking with the army, which is in favor of the general. He’s going to have a mutiny on his hands.”

Seymour Hersh’s full report can be found at Substack

King Charles has been diagnosed with a form of cancer, says Buckingham Palace.

It is not prostate cancer, but was discovered during his recent treatment for an enlarged prostate.

The type of cancer has not been revealed, but according to a palace statement the King began “regular treatments” on Monday.

Buckingham Palace says the King “remains wholly positive about his treatment and looks forward to returning to full public duty as soon as possible”.

A Statement from Buckingham Palace

During The King’s recent hospital procedure for benign prostate enlargement, a separate issue of concern was noted. Subsequent diagnostic tests have identified a form of cancer.

His Majesty has today commenced a schedule of regular treatments, during which time he has been advised by doctors to postpone public-facing duties. Throughout this period, His Majesty will continue to undertake State business and official paperwork as usual.

The King is grateful to his medical team for their swift intervention, which was made possible thanks to his recent hospital procedure. He remains wholly positive about his treatment and looks forward to returning to full public duty as soon as possible.

His Majesty has chosen to share his diagnosis to prevent speculation and in the hope it may assist public understanding for all those around the world who are affected by cancer.

Although he will pause his public events, the King, 75, will continue with his constitutional role as head of state.

Prince William has his fingers crossed (or uncrossed) as he is due to return to royal duties on Wednesday for the first time since his wife, Princess Kate, had abdominal surgery last month.

Catherine, 42, spent 13 nights at the London Clinic following the surgery and is not expected to return to royal duties for several weeks.

Queen Camilla has been the most senior royal still in action, carrying out a series of solo events last week, including in London, Bath and Cambridge.

Prince Harry will head to UK to see king after cancer diagnosis.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

This week, a federal agency sent a warning about a vulnerability that impacts iPhones, iPads, Macbooks, and other Apple devices, saying that it could lead to major security breaches.

The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), an arm of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, said on Jan. 30 that the issue, marked as CVE-2022-48618, can bypass “pointer authentication.” It said that not fixing the bug could pose a “significant” risk to the U.S. “federal enterprise.”

The bulletin also said that it issued a “binding operational directive” to issue updates to fix the problem, requiring federal civilian agencies to “remediate identified vulnerabilities by the due date to protect” its “networks against active threats.”

According to CISA, the agencies were given about three weeks to patch the issue. The deadline was set for Feb. 21, 2024.

But CISA also warned that it “strongly urges all organizations,” such as companies, to respond to the bug.

On a separate website, officials say that the issue has been fixed in macOS Ventura 13.1, watchOS 9.2, iOS 16.2 and, iPadOS 16.2, and tvOS 16.2. “An attacker with arbitrary read and write capability may be able to bypass Pointer Authentication. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been exploited against versions of iOS released before iOS 15.7.1,” the bulletin said.

In a separate instance last month, CISA sent out an advisory for iPhone and other iOS users to update their products for another security issue.

“Apple has released security updates for iOS and iPadOS, macOS, Safari, watchOS, and tvOS. A cyber threat actor could exploit some of these vulnerabilities to take control of an affected system,” said the agency on Jan. 23. It then recommended that users update their software.

As usual, Apple provided few details about the fixes in the latest update, which applies to iPhones and iPads. But one of the fixed issues, known as CVE-2024-23222, was a vulnerability in WebKit, which runs the Safari browser, that could allow an actor to execute code on a device.

“Processing maliciously crafted web content may lead to arbitrary code execution. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been exploited,” the Cupertino-based tech giant said on Jan. 22.

Several other bugs that impact WebKit, Safari, reset services, mail, kernel (the core of an operating system), and more were fixed in the update, according to Apple’s support page.

Two WebKit issues also could lead to remote code execution, while the kernel problem could allow an attacker to execute code through an app, it said.

“For our customers’ protection, Apple doesn’t disclose, discuss, or confirm security issues until an investigation has occurred and patches or releases are available. Recent releases are listed on the Apple security releases page,” the company said.

In September, the federal cybersecurity agency directed other agencies to fix an exploit that could infect iPhones with the controversial NSO Group’s Pegasus spyware that has allegedly been used to surveil individuals in other countries as well as iPhones belonging to individuals at a Washington-based civil society organization.

Here’s How to Update

The update will be automatic for many iPhone users, but it depends on their phone settings.

Users can go to the iPhone’s Settings before tapping General, then tapping Software Update to download and install iOS 17.3 (or iOS 16.7.5 or iOS 15.8.1 for older models), as well as the aforementioned security fixes. That download can be accessed regardless of whether the user has automatic updates turned on or off.

According to the company, its latest iOS and iPhone update will separately provide more crash detection optimizations for all iPhone 14 and iPhone 15 models. Apple posted its most recent update’s full release notes on its website.

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) defended a recent proposal to provide funding for Israel with no strings attached.

The proposal would grant around $17.6 billion to Israel.

It’s the House’s second Israel-centric proposal since Mr. Johnson took the gavel. An earlier proposal would have granted Israel roughly $14 billion offset by cuts to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

For months, Mr. Johnson has insisted that the Senate needs to take up the bill as approved by the House in exchange for Israel aid.

However, since it passed the House it’s been collecting dust on Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) desk, as Senate Democrats considered the IRS offsets a nonstarter.

On Feb. 3, Mr. Johnson announced the standalone Israel proposal to colleagues.

While the move could seem to be a surrender by Mr. Johnson on the IRS offsets, his decision to introduce it could be influenced by another package making its way through the congressional process.

For months, Senate lawmakers led by Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), and others have been at work on negotiating the details of a comprehensive national security package. The package would include aid for Israel, additional funding for Ukraine, and border security funding and policies.

However, House Republicans have been clear that, if rumors about the package’s contents are true, it’s a nonstarter in the House.

Specifically, many Republicans have hinged their opposition to the package on the basis of a rumored provision that would allow 5,000 illegal aliens to enter the United States every day—adding up to around 1.8 million illegal aliens entering the country legally per year.

While this might mean a reduction in the short term, Republicans are unwilling to codify any amount of illegal immigration into law.

With the text of the Senate’s national security package expected in the very near future, some see Mr. Johnson’s introduction of a standalone Israel bill as a reactionary move by the lower chamber.

But Mr. Johnson insisted during a Feb. 4 appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the move wasn’t calculated to set up a showdown.

“We passed the support for [Israel] many months ago, three months ago,” Mr. Johnson said. “Immediately after I became speaker we sent the necessary resources there.”

But he said that the Senate has been “dithering” on moving ahead with helping Israel.

“The Senate has been dithering ever since we cannot wait any more,” Mr. Johnson said. “The reason we are going to send the new Israel package over is because the time is urgent and we have to take care of that responsibility.”

Kristen Welker, the host of NBS’s “Meet the Press,” then noted reports that the Senate was closing in on finalizing its national security package.

She cited comments delivered earlier on the show by national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who called the standalone Israel bill a “ploy” by Republicans to kill the Senate package.

She asked, “Did you propose this standalone Israel package to kill this compromise deal in the Senate?”

Mr. Johnson said he had not, noting that Republicans in the House have long said that the Senate deal would be dead on arrival.

“We’ve made very clear what the requirements of the House were, and that is to solve the problem at the border,” Mr. Johnson replied.

Mr. Johnson and a number of others in the lower chamber have argued that the Senate proposal would not fulfill that end.

Mr. Johnson was dubious that the Senate would release the text of the bill, noting that an imminent release of text has been rumored for weeks.

“The Senate has not been able to come to an agreement,” Mr. Johnson said. “They’ve been suggesting text should be filed maybe today. But we’ve been told the same thing for months now. We’ve been awaiting their action.”

The introduction of the bill, he said, is because the House can no longer wait for the Senate amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

“We cannot wait any longer,” Mr. Johnson said. “The House is willing to lead and the reason we have to take care of this Israel situation right now is because the situation has escalated.”

He cited continued attacks against Israel by the Hamas terrorist group, the recent retaliatory strikes for the death of three U.S. soldiers, and other indicators of mounting conflict in the Middle East.

“The heat has been turned up there,” Mr. Johnson said. “Israel has never been in greater need of our support. And the House is serious about that, I believe will pass this with a wide margin and take care of that responsibility.”

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the House Freedom Caucus, told The Epoch Times that he hopes the Senate’s deal is “dead on arrival” in the House.

“Anything coming out of the Senate is put together by Chuck Schumer and [Senate Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell,” he said, referring to the Republican from Kentucky.

The White House, meanwhile, blasted Mr. Johnson’s comments, which a spokesperson called “inherently contradictory and ridiculous.”

Despite Mr. Johnson’s denials, his introduction of a standalone Israel package likely will lead to a showdown between the House and Senate, and further delays for providing Israel with U.S. support.

Recently, Mr. Schumer announced that the Senate would vote on the national security package this week.

With the House also set to take a vote on the standalone Israel bill this week, it’s likely that neither chamber will immediately take up the other’s proposals.

Nathan Worcester contributed to this report. 

Despite more weekend rounds of US heavy strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen, the militant group aligned with Iran is vowing more attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. As we previously detailed, the US-led coalition attempting to protect the vital transit waterway launched dozens of fresh missile and airstrikes, with most of them coming on Saturday against at least 36 targets. 

A Houthi spokesman, Yahya Saree, responded soon after on Sunday, saying “These attacks will not deter us from our moral, religious and humanitarian stance” in support of Palestinians in Gaza. He vowed that it won’t pass “without response and punishment.”

Video of launches from USS GRAVELY, USS CARNEY, and USS DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER supporting strikes on Iranian-backed Houthi targets pic.twitter.com/EMSkDANoeF

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) February 4, 2024

Additionally, Bloomberg has cited members of the Houthi political council to say the group now considers that there’s “open war” and that its military capabilities remain undeterred – though this isn’t the first time the Shia group has declared ‘war’ on Israel and its backers since Oct.7. 

Yet a separate Houthi official has said the goal of disruption of regional trade as revenge for Israel’s crimes in Gaza will continue “no matter the sacrifices it costs us” and vowed escalation, according to Fox. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti’s statement said further, “The US-British coalition’s bombing of a number of Yemeni provinces will not change our position, and we affirm that our military operations against Israel will continue until the crimes of genocide in Gaza are stopped and the siege on its residents is lifted, no matter the sacrifices it costs us.”

Washington is at the same time saying more strikes are on the horizon:

“We intend to take additional strikes, and additional action, to continue to send a clear message that the United States will respond when our forces are attacked, when our people are killed,” White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told NBC’s “Meet the Press” program on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Houthis are touting that they have more tricks up their sleeve and ways to “punish” the Western coalition and those supporting Israel. 

“Telecom firms linked to the UN-recognized Yemen government have said they fear Houthi rebels are planning to sabotage a network of submarine cables in the Red Sea critical to the functioning of the western internet and the transmission of financial data,” The Guardian reports.

According to the specific Houthi threat:

The warning came after a Houthi-linked Telegram channel published a map of the cables running along the bed of the Red Sea. The image was accompanied by a message: “There are maps of international cables connecting all regions of the world through the sea. It seems that Yemen is in a strategic location, as internet lines that connect entire continents – not only countries – pass near it.”

Yemen Telecom said it had made both diplomatic and legal efforts during the past few years to persuade global international telecom alliances not to have any dealings with the Houthis since it would provide a terrorist group with knowledge of how the submarine cables operated. It has been estimated that the Red Sea carries about 17% of the world’s internet traffic along fiber pipes.

Any potential operation to sever the submarine cables, but which are sometimes no thicker that a garden hose, would likely be a sophisticated deep underwater technical campaign, but is widely believed within the realm of possibility given the Houthis’ determination thus far.

One security analyst told The Guardian that the “cables have been kept safe more due to the Houthis’ relative technological underdevelopment than for a lack of motivation.”

Speaking of the cables, the report notes that “One of the most strategic is the 15,500-mile (25,000km) Asia-Africa-Europe AE-1 that goes from south-east Asia to Europe via the Red Sea.”

If already the Houthis have no fear of launching anti-ship missiles at US and UK Navy destroyers, then certainly they could have their eyes next set on sabotaging the globe’s internet infrastructure, and it’s likely on a matter of time.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Shellyne Rodriguez, the machete-wielding former Hunter College professor, has now been fired by the Cooper Union college.

The school previously stood with Rodriguez after she trashed a student display and held a machete to the neck of a journalist.

It appears that Rodriguez’s anti-Israel comments were finally too much for Cooper Union.

What is interesting is what it takes at both Hunter College and The Cooper Union to be fired.

We previously discussed a videotape of Rodríguez trashing a pro-life student display in New York.

Before attacking the table, she told the students, “You’re not educating s–t […] This is f–king propaganda. What are you going to do, like, anti-trans next? This is bulls–t. This is violent. You’re triggering my students.”

The videotape revealed one other thing.

At Hunter College, and at other colleges, it seems that trashing a pro-life student display and abusing pro-life students is not considered a firing offense. Hunter College refused to fire Rodríguez.

The PSC Graduate Center, the labor organization of graduate and professional schools at the City University of New York, supported that decision and said Rodríguez was “justified” in trashing the display, which the organization described as “dangerously false propaganda” and “disinformation.”

Rodríguez later put a machete to the neck of a reporter, threatened to chop him up and then chased a news crew down a street with the machete in hand. Somewhere between the machete to the neck and chasing the reporters down the street, Hunter College finally decided that Rodríguez had to go.

Rodríguez denounced the school for having “capitulated” to “racists, white nationalists, and misogynists.” She explained that her firing was just a continuation of “attacks on women, trans people, black people, Latinx people, migrants, and beyond.”

The Cooper Union, however, refused to sever ties with Rodríguez, 47, and decided that she should continue to teach her students.  According to the New York Post, Rodriguez attributed her firing to her anti-Israeli comments. She declared

“Cooper Union has fired me because of a social media post I made about ‘Zionists’… effective immediately. This is fascism. Ya’ll are learning about it in real time. Stay strong, [stay] brave, stay defiant, don’t bite your tongue, and drink plenty of water! Pa-lante!”

Students cried foul. One group wrote the dean to object that “this firing represents an intense escalation of McCarthyist repression meant to intimidate and punish those in support of a Free Palestine, and must be resisted to prevent its further normalization and the ongoing genocide in Gaza.”

There is a legitimate question over terminations of faculty for statements made outside of a school on social media. However, there was ample reason not to have a machete-wielding maniac teach students. Cooper Union, however, found the social media more menacing than the machete.

Rodriguez participated in a CUNY for Palestine virtual panel in which she spoke about the possibility of a Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement rent strike in New York involving not making rent payments to Jewish landlords or landlords who support Israel.

She is quoted as calling for the targeting of pro-Israeli figures, adding “[y]ou probably wait tables where they go to brunch. Find them, go to their offices, don’t let them sleep.”

She also called former Bronx Borough President Rubén Díaz Jr. a “roach” and “Zionist lapdog.”

Notably, others on the left have encouraged such harassment of those with opposing views, including Rep. Maxine Waters, D-CA. Others have supported harassing conservative justices at their homes and offices.

What is ironic about the objection to McCarthyism is that Rodriguez is part of the “radical chic” in academia leading the mob and silencing others.

The one benefit of this controversy is that it is finally confirmed what it takes to be fired by The Cooper Union if you are on the left. Trashing pro-life displays or threatening journalists are clearly no barrier for employment with the school.

The Senate’s $118 billion spending package, of which more than $60 billion would go to Ukraine, allows 1.5 million illegal migrants into the country per year, hobbles states like Texas by requiring legal challenges be arbitrated in DC courts, and funds NGOs who facilitate human trafficking to the tune of billions, is ‘dead on arrival’ according to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).

I’ve seen enough. This bill is even worse than we expected, and won’t come close to ending the border catastrophe the President has created. As the lead Democrat negotiator proclaimed: Under this legislation, “the border never closes.”

If this bill reaches the House, it will be…

— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) February 5, 2024

The bill’s most ardent supporters are a coalition of establishment all-stars, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and lead GOP negotiator, Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) – who was censured last week by the Oklahoma GOP for striking such a crappy border deal with Sens. Chris Murphy (D-CT) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ).

As Punchbowl News puts it, the bill’s Sunday night release was like “pouring gasoline on the fire that is the Senate GOP internal war,” as “Senators and aides publicly and privately questioned whether a majority of the Republican Conference would back it.” Some GOP Senators and outside conservative groups even called for an immediate leadership change over the package.

During a Sunday evening press call, Lankford said critics of the proposal had already come out against it before the text was released.

“If we have a crisis on our southern border, and we do… we should address that and do what we can to be able to solve that problem — not just hope that the problem gets better or hope that an election solves the issue,” Lankford said – completely ignoring the fact that President Joe Biden could close the border with the stroke of a pen, today, without $60 billion going to Ukraine and 5,000 migrants allowed in per day.

Lankford said in response to these statements that he’s “a little confused… at how it could be ‘worse than expected.’” The Oklahoma Republican added he wants to huddle with the speaker’s team. Of course, Johnson’s statement will undoubtedly cause some on-the-fence GOP senators to vote against the bill.

“We’re at the beginning points of information,” Lankford asserted, dismissing the House GOP criticisms. “There are some people who just read Facebook posts… They made their decision based on the Facebook posts, not the text.”

Conservatives flatly reject

According to Donald Trump, “We need a Separate Border and Immigration Bill. It should not be tied to foreign aid in any way, shape or form.”

“Only a fool, or a Radical Left Democrat, would vote for this horrendous Border Bill, which only gives Shutdown Authority after 5000 Encounters a day, when we already have the right to CLOSE THE BORDER NOW, which must be done,” he said on Truth Social.

“This Bill is a great gift to the Democrats, and a Death Wish for The Republican Party. It takes the HORRIBLE JOB the Democrats have done on Immigration and the Border, absolves them, and puts it all squarely on the shoulders of Republicans,” the former president continued. “Don’t be STUPID!!! We need a separate Border and Immigration bill. It should not be tied to foreign aid in any way, shape or form!“

President Trump calls out the Senate’s fake “border bill” for not being a stand alone border bill.

He said, “We need a Separate Border and Immigration Bill. It should not be tied to foreign aid in any way, shape or form.” pic.twitter.com/eQVfFJQOHz

— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) February 5, 2024

In addition to Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) said “The Senate Border Bill will NOT receive a vote in the House,” while Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) voiced outrage as well along with Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO).

This guy, who dropped the dime on President Trump for asking Ukraine about obvious Biden corruption – and was once offered a job as their defense minister – is livid that more people aren’t supporting this open-border package that sends $60 billion to his favorite country and weakens US national security.

Motherfucking traitors. @SteveScalise @HouseGOP will own this. Every one of these anti-American politicians will be defeated sooner than later. https://t.co/iUFOg7bVJQ

— Alexander S. Vindman ❎ (@AVindman) February 5, 2024

According to Schumer, the first procedural vote on the bill will happen on Wednesday, which will mark a critical test.

We expect several progressives to oppose the plan as well. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) did so on Sunday due to the Israel funding. Hispanic lawmakers and pro-immigration groups such as the ACLU are already taking aim at the changes to immigration policy. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) called it a “new version of Trump-era policies that will cause more chaos at the border.” -Punchbowl

By Simon Watkins of OilPrice.com

• The ability of either the U.S. or China – or even both working together – to contain Iran’s response to the attacks on its military proxies may have disappeared with the latest U.S. attacks on them.

• The U.S.’s toleration of increased oil flows from Iran to China also meant that Beijing was relatively content to use its huge influence in the Middle East to further keep political tensions down.

• A stricter sanction regime on Iran and less Iranian oil for China may result in higher oil prices this year.

Until a few days ago, two key factors had kept oil prices down since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas War on 7 October 2023. The first was the exceptionally accomplished diplomacy of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his team in preventing the direct involvement of more Middle Eastern states in the conflict. The second was that the White House has been choosing to disregard a dramatic rise in illegal oil exports from Iran to China since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Irrespective of whether oil enters the global market legally or illegally it nonetheless satisfies a demand and helps to dampen down prices. In the case of this second factor, the U.S.’s toleration of increased oil flows from Iran to China also meant that Beijing was relatively content to use its huge influence in the Middle East to further keep political tensions down. However, the latest military strikes by Iranian proxy forces on U.S. targets that caused the death of three American service personnel, and the subsequent retaliation by Washington against several of Tehran’s military proxies, may mean that this second factor will be taken out of the oil price equation. And if that happens, oil prices could rocket.

According to one source who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry and another who works in the European’s Union’s energy security complex – both exclusively spoken to by OilPrice.com within the last month – as from 12 December 2023 to 18 January this year Iran was producing between 4.6-4.9 million barrels per day (bpd). This has subsequently dropped to an average of around 4.2-4.5 million bpd. This compares to official figures of 2.99 million bpd. Subtracting the oil used domestically and in the manufacture of other products, Iran has been exporting around 1.80-1.95 million bpd of crude during that period, and for several months before the figure was only slightly less.

Most of this additional oil goes to China through the various methods of sanctions avoidance analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order. Suffice it to say here, part of this involves just switching off a ship’s automatic identification systems (AIS) transponder, making the vessel more difficult to track. Another part involves simply lying about a ship’s final destination in the freight documentation and in the vessel’s voyage plan. This standard Iranian sanctions-avoidance measure was openly acknowledged in 2020 by its former Petroleum Minister, Bijan Zanganeh, when he said: “What we export is not under Iran’s name. The documents are changed over and over, as well as [the] specifications.” Additionally, transfers at sea in territorial waters of Malaysia and Indonesia have proven another popular way for Iran to move oil ultimately to China. As Iran’s then-Foreign Minister, Mohammad Zarif, stated in December 2018 at the Doha Forum: “If there is an art that we have perfected in Iran, [that] we can teach to others for a price, it is the art of evading sanctions.”  

From China’s side, the system of quietly buying sanctioned Iranian oil has worked flawlessly for years and continued to work in the same way now, as also analysed in depth in my new book on the new global oil market order. As also highlighted by me in an article for OilPrice.com back on 3 August 2020, multiple reports that Iran’s oil exports to China had fallen to zero overlooked the rather important fact that people with something massive to lose if they tell the truth frequently choose to lie instead. The reports also overlooked a key technical fact that any and all crude oil imports to China from Iran can be held in ‘bonded storage’. Put simply: crude oil that goes into ‘bonded storage’ is not put through China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC) at all – and is not even recorded as having been ‘paid for’ – and consequently does not appear on any GAC documentation. This meant – and still means – that China can import as much Iranian oil as it wants without the oil appearing in any import figures and without, as far as the letter of the law is concerned, China breaking any U.S. sanctions.

This long-time collusive misrepresentation of the size of Iranian oil flows to China has particularly suited both the U.S. and China – and the world, in fact – since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Vicious spikes in oil and gas prices in the immediate aftermath of the February 2022 invasion caused energy-price-fuelled inflation to spiral out of control. For the U.S.’s key allies that are net energy consumers in the West and East this threatened power shortages and major economic recessions if not dealt with quickly. It was at this point that the White House quietly resumed talks in earnest with Iran on a new iteration of the ‘nuclear deal’, as also analysed in depth in my new book on the new global oil market order. Part of those talks was a further easing up in U.S. focus on the issue of sanctioned Iranian oil exports. For China, this understanding with the U.S. on Iranian oil flows is extremely important for the prospects of its ongoing economic recovery from three years of Covid.

For one thing, China can still buy Iranian oil for at least a 30 percent discount to the Brent oil price benchmark through the all-encompassing ‘Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement’, as first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article on the subject and also analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order. Additionally, the economies of the West remain its key export bloc, with the U.S. still accounting for over 16 percent of China’s export revenues on its own. According to the senior E.U. energy security source spoken to exclusively by OilPrice.com recently, economic damage to China would dangerously increase if the Brent oil price remained over US$90-95 pb for more than one quarter of a year. Indeed, Beijing’s lack of appetite for an outright superpower showdown in the Middle East right now was signalled clearly by the recent visit to the U.S. of its President, Xi Jinping – his first in six years.

A similar range for the oil price is also what is wanted by the U.S. and has informally been in place since the presidency of Donald Trump, as also detailed in my new book. The floor of the range is US$40-45 pb of Brent, as it is seen as the price at which U.S. shale oil producers can survive and make decent profits. The ceiling of the range is regarded as US$75-80 pb of Brent for two reasons – one political and one economic, although they are linked. The political reason is that since the end of World War I in 2018, the sitting U.S. president has won re-election 11 times out of 11 if the economy was not in recession within two years of an upcoming election. However, if it was in recession in this timeframe, then only 1 sitting president has won out of 7 times (although even the 1 is debatable). The economic reason is based on longstanding estimates that every US$10 pb change in the price of crude oil results in a 25-30 cent change in the price of a gallon of gasoline, and every 1 cent that the average price per gallon of gasoline rises removes more than US$1 billion per year in consumer spending. Historically, around 70 percent of the price of gasoline is derived from the global oil price. 

However, the ability of either the U.S. or China – or even both working together – to contain Iran’s response to the attacks on its military proxies may have disappeared with the latest U.S. attacks on them. Similarly, the willingness of the U.S. to tolerate the ongoing sale of major flows of sanctioned oil from Iran may be over. If the dampening effect of these Iranian oil flows is removed from the oil market, then this would likely lead to an oil price rise to around US$102 per barrel, according to World Bank estimates of a ‘small disruption’ (0.5 million bpd – 2 million bpd loss of supply) in the oil market. If a major increase in risk in the Middle East as U.S. and Iran-backed attacks continue leads to a ‘large disruption’ (6 million bpd -8 million bpd) in oil supply then the World Bank forecasts a 56-75 percent increase in oil prices to between US$140 and US$157 a barrel.